Marlins, J.D. Martinez Have Had Recent Discussions
The Marlins and free agent slugger J.D. Martinez have had recent talks, reports Craig Mish of the Miami Herald. The slugger has been seeking a two-year deal. Mish notes that the Marlins have been planning to keep the DH spot open and rotate Josh Bell, Jake Burger and others through that spot. There doesn’t appear to be a fit between the two parties at the moment, he adds, though one would imagine that’s in part due to Martinez’s asking price.
Even if there’s no current fit, the conversations are of note. It shows at least some willingness from Miami to spend further in free agency, and it adds a new entrant to the Martinez mix, should his price drop to a certain point. Presumably, if the price fell to the point where a typically low-spending club like Miami was comfortable, other teams currently not in the mix for Martinez would also show interest.
The 36-year-old Martinez just wrapped up a strong rebound season with the Dodgers, wherein he slashed .271/.321/.572 with 33 home runs. Last year’s 7.1% walk rate was Martinez’s lowest since establishing himself as a big league regular, however, while his 31.1% strikeout rate was a career-high. That could suggest an aging hitter who’s selling out for more power at the expense of his once better-than-average contact skills, but even if that’s the case, the results are hard to argue with. The question moving forward is whether that approach is conducive to further success — particularly over a multi-year deal.
Martinez posted off-the-charts batted ball data in 2023. His 93.4 mph average exit velocity, 17% barrel rate and 54.8% hard-hit rate all ranked in the 98th percentile of MLB hitters. When Martinez did make contact, there was practically no one who did so with more authority. Aaron Judge, Shohei Ohtani, Ronald Acuna Jr., Matt Olson and Matt Chapman are the only qualified hitters in baseball with a higher average exit velocity than Martinez’s 2023 mark. Only Judge, Chapman, Acuna, Olson and Juan Soto hit a higher percentage of their batted balls at 95 mph or more.
In Miami, Martinez would effectively be replacing Jorge Soler, who opted out of the final year and $13MM on his contract and eventually signed a three-year, $42MM deal with the Giants. Martinez, in some ways, is an older version of that same skill set: he’s a right fielder whose dwindling defensive prowess makes him best-suited for DH work, and his batted-ball data and production against left-handed pitching are elite, as is the case with Soler. Martinez has more even platoon splits than Soler, but he also struck out far more often last season than Soler.
The Marlins made practically no attempt to re-sign Soler, so it’s surprising to see them checking in with Martinez. Perhaps it’s simply a matter of trying to land a bargain upgrade for the lineup late in the year as the asking price on many free agents drop. But the Marlins probably do have enough money left to make a deal for Martinez work, even if his price hasn’t bottomed out. RosterResource pegs Miami at a projected $101.6MM Opening Day payroll — about $8.4MM shy of last season’s end-of-year mark.
Even if they’re not willing to stretch beyond last year’s payroll level — which probably would rule out getting Martinez on a one-year deal — the Fish could probably offer Martinez a backloaded two-year arrangement. The only contracts on the Marlins’ books in 2025 are Avisail Garcia ($12MM) and Sandy Alcantara ($17MM). They’ll also owe Garcia a $5MM buyout on a 2026 option.
That number will spike, as Miami has a huge arbitration class headlined by Luis Arraez, Jesus Luzardo, Jazz Chisholm Jr., A.J. Puk, Braxton Garrett and Edward Cabrera (with several other role players also mixed in). Even still, there ought to be enough room for the Fish to creatively structure a deal to bring Martinez into the fold — if owner Bruce Sherman green-lights that type of expenditure. Whether he’ll do so remains an open question. Miami sat out free agency for the entire offseason before signing Tim Anderson to a one-year, $5MM contract recently. The team has shown little appetite for free agent spending in recent years and has frequently been burned when choosing to do so (Garcia, Johnny Cueto, Jean Segura).
White Sox Sign Brad Keller To Minor League Deal
The White Sox announced that they have signed right-hander Brad Keller to a minor league deal. The Excel Sports Management client also receives an invite to major league Spring Training.
The 28-year-old Keller became a free agent for the first time following the 2023 season but didn’t hit the market at a particularly advantageous time. His 2023 season was cut to just 45 1/3 innings due to a shoulder injury and, eventually, a diagnosis of thoracic outlet syndrome. TOS is a particularly difficult issue for pitchers to return from, but it’s notable that there was never an announcement that Keller underwent surgery to correct the issue. If he indeed avoided going under the knife and was able to deal with his symptoms via rest and rehab, that could portend a more optimistic outlook than the common TOS surgery that has derailed many pitching careers.
From 2018-20, Keller logged a 3.50 ERA in Kansas City, going from a long reliever whom the team selected out of the D-backs organization in the Rule 5 Draft to an entrenched member of the Royals rotation. His 2021-23 seasons went in the opposite direction.
Dating back to Opening Day 2021, Keller carries a 5.14 ERA in 318 2/3 innings. His once-strong walk rate has climbed to an untenable 11.5% — including a ghastly 21.3% clip in 2023 while he navigated that shoulder injury and the perhaps related TOS symptoms. Keller limited opponents to a 4.5% barrel rate and 35.7% hard-hit rate through his first three seasons but has seen those marks leap to 8.4% and 42%, respectively, over the past three years. He’s lost about a mile per hour off his fastball as well.
Keller tried to revamp his repertoire in 2023, ditching his four-seamer and scarcely using his sinker while instead deploying a trio of new pitches: cutter, splitter, curveball. That mix didn’t work out, though it’s hard to glean just how effective those pitches may or may not truly be, given the health troubles that were plaguing him. Keller has long had a plus slider, although that pitch’s efficacy took a step back over the past two seasons as well, particularly in 2023 due to an inability to locate the offering.
Suffice it to say, Keller is a project for the White Sox organization. There’s little harm in taking a look on a minor league pact, but it’s been three years and one particularly ominous injury since he was last an effective big league hurler. He’s not likely to break camp with the club but could join veterans like Chad Kuhl and Jake Woodford as an experienced right-handed depth starter to begin the season in Triple-A Charlotte.
Nathaniel Lowe Questionable For Opening Day
Rangers first baseman Nathaniel Lowe has been diagnosed with an oblique strain that could keep him sidelined long enough that he’ll need to open the year on the injured list, manager Bruce Bochy announced to the Rangers beat this morning (X link via MLB.com’s Kennedi Landry). As Landry points out, it’d be the first IL stint of the ultra-durable Lowe’s professional career.
Jeff Wilson of RangersToday.com adds that the team provided a rough, initial timetable for Lowe of three to four weeks. That generally aligns with the timeframe that’s common for most oblique injuries of note; even Grade 1 strains tend to sideline players for around a month. Presumably, the Rangers will provide further updates as camp progresses. Lowe was just lifted from Thursday’s Cactus League game after reporting some tightness in his side to the team’s training staff.
Texas has sufficient infield depth to withstand a short-term loss of Lowe, but his subtraction from the lineup would still be a notable hit to the team’s offense. While his 2023 performance (.262/.360/.414, 17 homers, 114 wRC+) wasn’t nearly as strong as his outstanding breakout campaign in 2022 (.302/.358/.492, 27 homers, 141 wRC+), Lowe was still one of the most productive hitters in a stacked Rangers lineup.
In the event that Lowe opens the year on the injured list, there are a number of routes the Rangers could go. Lowe has taken a whopping 94.2% of the team’s plate appearances at first base over the past three seasons, so Texas hasn’t needed to replace him too often. Utilityman Ezequiel Duran and catcher Sam Huff have both seen very brief time at first base on the rare days Lowe has been given a breather. The Rangers have bat-first infield prospect Justin Foscue in camp, and he’s already on the 40-man roster, so he’d also be an option to make his debut and take some reps at first base. Former Angels first baseman Jared Walsh is also in camp as a non-roster invitee and has thus far had a big showing in an obviously limited sample (7-for-17 with a double, a homer, three walks and four strikeouts).
The Rangers acquired Lowe from the Rays in a rare trade that’s gone poorly for Tampa Bay — at least thus far. In three seasons as Texas’ primary first baseman, Lowe has slashed .276/.359/.440 (122 wRC+) with 62 homers, an 11% walk rate and a 23.6% strikeout rate. Texas sent infielder Osleivis Basabe, catcher Heriberto Hernandez and outfielder Alexander Ovalles back to the Rays in that swap. Basabe made his MLB debut last year with the Rays but struggled in 31 games. Hernandez ranks 18th among Rays farmhands at Baseball America and isn’t in the team’s top 30 at MLB.com. Ovalles was selected by the Reds in the minor league phase of the 2023 Rule 5 Draft.
A.J. Puk Likely To Open Season In Marlins’ Rotation
The Marlins revealed back in December that they planned to stretch lefty A.J. Puk out and plug him back into a starting role after he’s spent his entire career to date in the bullpen. Puk, a former standout starter at the University of Florida and a starter for most of his minor league tenure, is now “a frontrunner” to claim the fourth spot in Miami’s rotation, Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald reports.
Puk will turn 29 in April. He’s never made a big league start but has started 42 games in the minors — most coming early in his tenure. The former No. 6 overall draft pick (2016) moved to the bullpen in 2019 after undergoing Tommy John surgery the year prior. Puk took well to that relief role, debuting in the majors with 11 1/3 innings late in 2019. He held opponents to four runs on ten hits and five walks with 13 strikeouts — good for a 3.18 ERA. He looked to have locked up a spot on the 2020 roster, but Puk experienced shoulder pain the following spring and wound up missing the season due to an eventual debridement surgery.
The 2021 season was a rough one for Puk, though that’s not entirely surprising for a pitcher who’d undergone Tommy John surgery and shoulder surgery within 24 months of each other. He split the year between Triple-A and the big leagues, posting an ERA north of 6.00 in both settings. The 2022 campaign finally brought a breakout for the talented but snakebitten southpaw; he pitched 66 1/3 innings out of the Oakland bullpen and worked to a 3.12 ERA with a 27% strikeout rate, 8.2% walk rate and 43.4% ground-ball rate.
The A’s, by then in the midst of a complete rebuild, traded Puk to the Marlins in exchange for outfielder JJ Bleday — another former top-10 overall pick (No. 4) who’d not yet lived up to the expectations associated with that lofty draft status. It worked out nicely for the Fish. In 56 2/3 frames, Puk logged a 3.97 ERA with far more encouraging secondary marks: 32.2% strikeout rate, 5.4% walk rate, 15.1% swinging-strike rate, 2.66 SIERA. Puk wound up leading the Marlins with 15 saves.
Clearly encouraged by the per-inning strength of those results, the Marlins will now try to maximize Puk’s workload by moving him into a starting role. Much has been made of the Marlins’ enviable pitching depth over the years, but Puk’s move to the rotation is in part due to the fact that Miami’s stash of promising young arms is no longer as deep as it once was.
Sandy Alcantara underwent Tommy John surgery and will miss the entire 2024 season. Pablo Lopez was traded to the Twins in exchange for Luis Arraez. Braxton Garrett is behind schedule in camp due to a shoulder issue and is unlikely to be ready for Opening Day. Top prospects Sixto Sanchez and Max Meyer have been slowed by injuries. Sanchez, in particular, hasn’t pitched since 2020. Another touted arm, Jake Eder, was traded to the White Sox for Jake Burger. Southpaw Trevor Rogers has struggled through injuries and poor results since his second-place finish in the 2021 NL Rookie of the Year voting.
If Puk is able to successfully move back into a starting role, it’d obviously be a boon for the Fish. It’s a move that could reap long-term benefits, too, as Puk is controllable through the 2026 season. The Marlins will presumably be careful with his workload after the lefty pitched just 59 1/3 innings last year between the majors and a brief minor league rehab assignment following a nerve issue in his elbow. But if he can progress to pitching 100-plus innings this year, it’s easier to envision any restrictions being removed for the 2025 campaign.
There’s some risk to the move, of course. Puk has a lengthy injury history and is no guarantee to hold up with a full rotation workload. By moving him to the starting staff, Miami is also notably weakening its relief corps. The Puk transition bodes well for Tanner Scott, who’ll likely spend his entire platform season before free agency as the Marlins’ closer. But beyond Scott, the Fish will rely on a series of arms with short track records and/or notable injury histories. Andrew Nardi, Anthony Bender, JT Chargois and George Soriano all have had big league success but have all yet to establish themselves as consistent, year-to-year performers.
Assuming the Marlins indeed stick with this plan, Puk will slot into the rotation behind Jesus Luzardo, Eury Perez and Edward Cabrera. The aforementioned Rogers and fellow lefty Ryan Weathers are the leading candidates for the fifth spot, Jackson notes, with Rogers a likelier fit than Weathers. Sanchez, once viewed as a rotation building block, is out of minor league options but figures to head to the bullpen if he’s healthy enough to make the roster. Whoever grabs the fifth spot will essentially be a placeholder for Garrett anyhow. That said, given workload concerns for Puk and the general frequency with which pitchers get injured, it’s likely that all of Puk, Rogers, Garrett and Weathers will wind up starting a fair share of games in South Florida this season.
Mariners’ Jackson Kowar Being Evaluated For Possible Arm Injury
The Mariners’ bullpen has already had its share of injury scares this spring. Fear of a monthslong absence for top setup man Matt Brash has been alleviated with a diagnosis of inflammation in his right elbow, but he’s weeks behind schedule now and will be built up cautiously. Trade acquisition Gregory Santos was shut down for a week earlier this spring due to a lat issue but has resumed throwing and could yet be ready for Opening Day, though that’s contingent on him avoiding any further setbacks of course. Now, Mariners manager Scott Servais tells reporters that right-hander Jackson Kowar is meeting with a doctor tomorrow to have his arm evaluated (X link via Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times).
That may not seem like a significant concern, given Kowar’s unsightly big league track record. The former Royals first-round pick and top prospect was traded to Atlanta and then to Seattle in a pair of change-of-scenery swaps over the winter. He’s 27 years old and, in parts of three big league seasons, has yielded more than an earned run per inning (75 runs in 74 frames). He also has a minor league option remaining. On paper, he looked like a long shot to make the team.
But as Divish recently wrote, Kowar has impressed the Mariners in camp. He’s averaged 96.1 mph on his heater in his career but was hitting 98 mph early in camp. Kowar has pitched a pair of scoreless innings, fanned three of his six opponents, and caught the team’s attention with the quality of his changeup. With Brash unlikely to be ready for the opener and Santos also still building up, there was a potential spot for Kowar to claim. Divish noted that he had “seemed to be locking in a spot” before soreness in his arm led to a temporary shutdown. Kowar last pitched on Feb. 28 and is now going for additional testing — an ominous sign.
The Mariners have a knack for unearthing bullpen talent. In the past few years they’ve turned unheralded pickups of Paul Sewald, Drew Steckenrider, Justin Topa, Kendall Graveman, Gabe Speier, Tayler Saucedo and others into impact moves. Their ability to find hidden gems to round out the relief corps has allowed the M’s to perennially field strong bullpens and also to avoid the types of multi-year deals for relievers that often turn into landmines. A few short looks in spring training is far too small a sample to indicate Kowar would be the next bargain find for president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto and his staff, but at the very least, the hard-throwing Kowar was trending in the right direction. At least for now, that’ll be put on hold — hopefully only for a brief period.
Already dealing with a trio of arm scares in the bullpen isn’t an enviable spot to be in — particularly since Seattle traded one of last year’s top setup men, the aforementioned Topa, to the Twins as part of their trade to acquire second baseman Jorge Polanco. The Mariners still have one of the game’s most talented closers in righty Andres Munoz, and they can look to lefties Speier and Saucedo to build on last year’s breakout showings to help form a setup corps. Santos could be ready for Opening Day still, and if not, he and Brash may not be delayed all that long.
But the Mariners were already likely to be relying on some unproven arms — Kowar among them. Righty Trent Thornton had a strong showing after coming over from the Blue Jays in a little-noticed trade last year. Flamethrower Carlos Vargas, acquired in the Eugenio Suarez trade, has a significant ceiling but worrying command issues. Swingman Austin Voth has had flashes of big league success but has lacked consistency. Former eighth-rounder Ty Adcock had a solid debut in ’23, but last year’s 15 2/3 innings in the majors were his first experience above Double-A. Offseason pickups of Mauricio Llovera, Collin Snider and Cody Bolton give the M’s some other options, but none are proven at the big league level. Veterans like Heath Hembree, Ty Buttrey and Trevor Kelley are in camp on non-roster deals.
The Mariners likely wouldn’t shy away from late-spring additions, be they via the trade market, the waiver wire or perhaps a late splash for one of the remaining free-agent relievers of note (e.g. Ryne Stanek). Even in the absence (so far) of a major injury, their depth is already being tested a bit.
Pirates’ Dauri Moreta To Miss Significant Time With Ligament Injury In Elbow
March 6: Moreta is dealing with a ligament injury in his right elbow, Pirates director of sports medicine Todd Tomczyk announced Wednesday (X link via Stumpf). The team is still gathering information and determining how to treat the injury, but Tomczyk acknowledged that Moreta will miss “an extended period of time.”
March 5: Pirates right-hander Dauri Moreta exited his most recent spring training appearance with an elbow issue, and while the team is still in the process of gathering information and opinions on the issue, GM Ben Cherington is expecting an absence of some note for Moreta, tweets Alex Stumpf of MLB.com. Stumpf noted Sunday that Moreta’s final fastball of the spring appearance in question clocked in at 89.9 mph; he averaged 95.3 mph on his heater in 2023.
While Moreta isn’t exactly a household name, he stepped up and cemented himself as a solid middle relief arm in Pittsburgh last season. Acquired in Nov. 2022 from the division-rival Reds in a trade sending infielder Kevin Newman to Cincinnati, Moreta pitched 58 innings out of the Pittsburgh bullpen and logged a 3.72 earned run average. It was a solid mark that was generally supported by fielding-independent metrics (3.25 SIERA).
With the Pirates, Moreta largely scrapped his changeup, dropping his usage rate on that pitch from 21.2% as a Red in 2022 to just 6.4%. He also roughly halved the usage of his fastball, throwing it at only a 26.4% rate last year. Both drops in usage were accompanied by a massive increase in the usage of Moreta’s slider, which accounted for nearly two-thirds of his pitches thrown in 2023. Moreta saw a substantial jump from an 11.1% swinging-strike rate to 13.8% as a result; his overall strikeout rate also climbed from 24.4% in 2022 to 31.8% in 2023. Moreta’s command took a turn for the worse, with his walk rate climbing from 8.1% to 10%.
The Bucs used Moreta primarily in low-leverage spots last year, though he worked his way into slightly more critical situations late in the season. He picked up just one save and five holds, but Moreta’s blend of velocity and missed bats made him an intriguing option to take on a more prominent role in 2024. While details remain scarce, any ascension up the bullpen hierarchy could be on hold based on this new elbow ailment.
As it stands, the Pirates will again turn to All-Star and Pittsburgh native David Bednar to close out games. Newly signed Aroldis Chapman will be his primary setup man, with righties Colin Holderman and Carmen Mlodzinski also on hand to serve as setup options.
Even if Moreta is out for an extended period of time, he’ll likely remain in the Pirates’ plans long term. He’s under club control through the 2028 season and won’t even be arbitration eligible until the 2025-26 offseason at the earliest.
Pirates’ Trade Talks For Rotation Help Have Slowed
Throughout the late stages of the offseason, the Pirates have reportedly been exploring the trade market for rotation help, with the Marlins (specifically, right-hander Edward Cabrera) being the team most frequently suggested as a potential trade partner. However, while the Bucs talked with the Fish and surely several other clubs about deals to bolster the rotation, Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reports that talks have “lost steam” and that GM Ben Cherington now says he’s increasingly focused on the arms in house.
“If there are things we can do to make the team better, we’re gonna stay on that,” Cherington tells Mackey. “No guarantee those things happen. We’re mostly focused on the guys who are here.”
The Pirates have three slam-dunk members of their Opening Day rotation: Mitch Keller, Martin Perez and Marco Gonzales. Keller, who recently signed a five-year contract extension, will get the Opening Day nod. There are still a pair of open rotation jobs, however, and Cherington suggested there are six or seven options vying for those two opportunities.
The names currently competing include a mix of young prospects, rebound candidates coming off a down 2023 showing, and veterans hoping to win a spot. While the Pirates have already informed 2023 No. 1 overall draft pick Paul Skenes that he won’t make the Opening Day roster, fellow top prospect Jared Jones (No. 74 on Baseball America’s top 100 list) is firmly in the mix. Jones may not have the same ceiling as Skenes, but Skenes pitched just 6 2/3 innings last year following the draft. Jones, on the other hand, logged a combined 3.85 ERA, 27.6% strikeout rate and 9.4% walk rate in 126 1/3 frames between Double-A and Triple-A in ’23. He’s pitched 4 2/3 shutout innings in camp.
Jones, 22, was specifically called out by manager Derek Shelton as a candidate for a spot in the Opening Day rotation (X link via Alex Stumpf of MLB.com). He’d need to be added to the 40-man roster, which could potentially work against him. That’s not true of Roansy Contreras, Quinn Priester, Luis Ortiz, Bailey Falter and Kyle Nicolas, each of whom is on the 40-man roster. (Lefty Jackson Wolf is as well, but the Pirates already optioned him to Double-A in their first wave of spring cuts).
Contreras and Falter have the most experience of the bunch. Both are looking to rebound from ugly 2023 showings. Contreras looked like a potential rotation staple as recently as 2022, when he pitched 95 innings of 3.79 ERA ball with passable, if unspectacular, strikeout and walk rates (21.1%, 9.6%). However, he lost more than a mile off his heater in ’23 and took a step back in virtually every rate category of note. He’s still only 24 years old and is just two years removed from being a top-100 prospect himself, so there’s ample time for him to figure things out. He’s out of minor league options, meaning he’ll make the roster one way or another — be it in the rotation or in the bullpen. Pirates fans will want to check out Mackey’s piece in full, as it more fully details some of the gains Contreras has shown thus far in camp.
Falter was acquired at the 2022 trade deadline in a swap sending utilityman Rodolfo Castro to the Phillies. The 26-year-old was never as touted a prospect as Contreras was, but the two followed relatively similar arcs otherwise: brief MLB debut in 2021, solid back-of-the-rotation results in 2022, poor showing in 2023. Falter tossed 84 innings with a 3.86 ERA as the Phillies’ fifth starter in ’22, fanning 21.2% of his opponents against an exceptional 4.9% walk rate. Like Contreras, he saw his strikeout, walk, swinging-strike and home run rates all back up in 2023 as he finished out the season with a 5.36 ERA in 80 2/3 frames. Also like Contreras, he’s out of minor league options and will need to make the roster or else be traded or exposed to waivers.
Priester, Ortiz and Nicolas all have minor league options remaining and have all made their big league debuts (in quite brief fashion, for Nicolas). They all ranked within the organization’s top 15 prospects at Baseball America as recently as 2023. Priester and Ortiz both drew top-100 fanfare prior to their debuts. None of the three has established himself on the roster, however. Priester has the best minor league numbers of the group but has been hit harder than Ortiz in the big leagues. Ortiz throws the hardest but has displayed shakier command than Priester. Nicolas still hasn’t had much success above Double-A, so he seems likely ticketed for Triple-A Indianapolis to begin the year, particularly since he’s already been hit hard in camp.
The Bucs also have a pair of veterans who could compete for a job. Lefty Josh Fleming is on the 40-man roster after signing a split deal late in the winter. He’s out of options and can’t be sent down, but he’s spent the bulk of his MLB career as a swingman with the Rays and could be headed for a similar spot in Pittsburgh. Righty Chase Anderson is in camp on a non-roster deal. The 36-year-old hasn’t posted a sub-5.00 ERA in the big leagues since being traded by the Brewers following the 2019 season but has shown decently in Triple-A while bouncing around the league since then.
Luis Medina Diagnosed With Grade 2 MCL Sprain; Freddy Tarnok Shut Down
12:20pm: The A’s have also shut Tarnok down for the time being, tweets Gallegos. The 25-year-old experienced a “flare-up” in his surgically repaired right hip and isn’t throwing at the moment. Tarnok underwent surgery to repair the labrum and some cartilage in his hip last August.
With just over three weeks until Opening Day, this update likely takes Tarnok out of the mix for a rotation job. The former Braves farmhand, acquired as part of last offseason’s Sean Murphy trade, missed the first few months of the ’23 season with a shoulder strain and pitched only 36 1/3 innings between the minors and the big leagues last year. Baseball America ranked Tarnok 25th among Oakland prospects this season, noting that a lack of durability and sub-par command point more to a future in the bullpen than the rotation ceiling that looked viable earlier in the righty’s minor league tenure.
11:03am: Athletics righty Luis Medina will begin the season on the injured list after being diagnosed with a Grade 2 sprain of the medial collateral ligament in his right knee, manager Mark Kotsay announced this morning (X link via Martin Gallegos of MLB.com). Medina exited his most recent spring start with a knee sprain of unknown severity and was seen in the A’s clubhouse on crutches this morning. There’s no firm timetable for Medina’s return to the Oakland roster, but a Grade 2 sprain likely comes with an absence of some note.
Acquired alongside JP Sears and Ken Waldichuk in the trade that sent Frankie Montas and Lou Trivino from the A’s to the Yankees, Medina may have had the inside track on the Athletics’ fifth starter job this spring. Sears, Paul Blackburn and offseason pickups Alex Wood and Ross Stripling are locked into the top four spots, but Medina had more success in the majors than the remainder of the (non-Sears) pitchers the A’s have landed over the course of their current rebuild.
Looking strictly at last year’s 5.42 ERA in 109 2/3 innings, that might not seem to be the case, but Medina was shelled early in his debut campaign before finishing the year on a more solid stretch. Over his final 11 starts and four long-relief appearances, Medina pitched 70 2/3 frames with a 4.22 ERA, albeit with shakier secondary marks.
Medina averaged better than 96 mph on his heater and posted a quality 11.4% swinging-strike rate, but those positives were undercut by subpar command. The right-hander walked more than 11% of his opponents, and that lackluster command contributed to a below-average 21.6% strikeout rate that checks in lower than one would expect for a pitcher with Medina’s velocity and bat-missing ability.
Medina will join Waldichuk (flexor strain/UCL sprain) on the injured list to begin the season. That pair’s subtraction from the team’s Opening Day rotation mix creates some additional competition in camp. Oakland has already optioned rotation hopefuls Adrian Martinez, Hogan Harris and Osvaldo Bido to Triple-A. Righties Joe Boyle, Freddy Tarnok, Joey Estes and Royber Salinas are all still in camp and are all already on the 40-man roster, as is lefty Kyle Muller. Rule 5 right-hander Mitch Spence is also in the mix for a rotation spot.
Nationals To Sign Eddie Rosario
11:20am: Rosario’s minor league deal contains a $2MM base salary and another $2MM of incentives, tweets Jon Heyman of the New York Post. He’ll head to big league camp once he passes his physical.
9:10am: Rosario’s contract is a minor league deal, tweets Andrew Golden of the Washington Post.
8:54am: The Nationals and free agent outfielder Eddie Rosario are in agreement on a split contract that can pay the veteran up to $4MM after incentives, reports Daniel Alvarez Montes of El Extra Base. The deal is still pending a physical. Rosario is represented by Rimas Sports.
Rosario, 32, is a veteran of nine big league seasons who’ll be joining his fourth MLB club after spending six seasons in Minnesota, half a year in Cleveland and two and a half seasons with Atlanta. He appeared in 142 games with the Braves last season, tallying 516 plate appearances and batting .255/.305/.450 with 21 home runs, 24 doubles, three triples, three steals, a 6.6% walk rate and a 23.6% strikeout rate.
From 2017-20 with the Twins, Rosario was a key presence in the middle of the lineup, popping a total of 96 home runs in 2002 plate appearances and hitting .281/.317/.493 — about 12% better than league average, by measure of wRC+. His bat has tailed off since that time, however. Rosario’s blistering run with the Braves following his acquisition at the 2021 trade deadline helped push Atlanta to the postseason, and his Herculean performance in that year’s NLCS won him MVP honors during that series. But on the whole, Rosario’s bat has been below average since departing Minnesota.
Over the past three seasons, Rosario has turned in a tepid .247/.295/.417 batting line (91 wRC+). He’s still shown some power, connecting on 40 homers and logging a .171 ISO (slugging minus batting average) in that time, but Rosario has become increasingly strikeout prone along the way.
During that peak four-year run with Minnesota, Rosario fanned in just 16.5% of his plate appearances. That mark has climbed to 24.2% over the past two seasons. Rosario has never walked much, but in the past, his plus bat-to-ball skills have helped to offset his anemic walk rates and justify his swing-at-everything approach. That’s no longer the case. In 2022-23, Rosario swung more often than all but 13 big league hitters (min. 500 plate appearances), but his contact rate ranked 265th of 318 in that same subset. The issue is magnified on pitches off the plate. Rosario has chased outside the strike zone more frequently than all but seven hitters in that span but ranks 173rd in contact rate on pitches off the plate.
Those traits underscore the free-swinging Rosario’s problematic approach at the plate, but the lefty-swinging veteran can still punish mistakes in the strike zone, particularly against right-handed pitching. His career batting average and OBP lack any telling platoon splits, but the vast majority of Rosario’s power comes when facing righties.
Defensively, Rosario has experience in all three outfield spots but is best deployed as a left fielder. His sprint speed (28 ft/sec, per Statcast) still ranks comfortably above league average, but he’s never displayed the range for center field and his once-elite arm has deteriorated over the past few seasons. As recently as 2020, Rosario averaged a huge 91.6 mph on his throws from the outfield, placing him in the 95th percentile of MLB outfielders. He was down to 85.1 mph in 2023, effectively placing him right at league average.
With the Nationals, Rosario can give manager Davey Martinez another veteran to compete for time in left field, joining fellow lefty hitter Jesse Winker in that regard. Center field figures to be manned by Victor Robles, with Lane Thomas slated for everyday reps in right field. Rosario and/or Winker could also contribute at designated hitter, but the Nats signed Joey Gallo to a big league deal last month and still have Joey Meneses as well.
That gives the Nats plenty of options at first base, designated hitter and left field. Assuming the physical goes well, Rosario will be among the favorites for playing time in left field, perhaps in a platoon setting with righty-hitting Stone Garrett. Rosario will also give Washington some depth to allow touted prospects and potential cornerstones Dylan Crews and James Wood to continue developing in the upper minors rather than rushing them to the big leagues. It’s a low-cost, minimal-risk deal for a team that has looked light on experienced outfield depth and on viable power threats in the middle of the order.
Lucas Giolito Diagnosed With Partial UCL Tear, Flexor Strain
March 6: Giolito will receive a second opinion from Dr. Jeff Dugas, Cora said this morning (X link via McCaffrey). Cora conceded that surgery is indeed an option, but no final decisions will be made until the right-hander receives that second opinion.
March 5: Red Sox right-hander Lucas Giolito experienced discomfort in his right elbow after his most recent throwing session, manager Alex Cora announced Tuesday morning (X link via Jen McCaffrey of The Athletic). He’ll undergo additional testing, but ESPN’s Jeff Passan reports that the initial diagnosis is a partial tear of the right ulnar collateral ligament and a flexor strain. A determination on treatment won’t be made until Giolito receives additional opinions, but season-ending surgery is obviously now on the table.
It’s a brutal blow for the Red Sox, who signed Giolito to a two-year, $38.5MM contract that allows the right-hander to opt out following the 2024 campaign. Assuming additional opinions confirm the team’s initial diagnosis, Giolito’s decision on next year’s $19MM player option will be rendered a foregone conclusion before the season even begins. If he indeed picks up that player option, the team would be granted a $14MM club option for the 2026 season. Giolito could then convert that into a mutual option by pitching 140 innings in 2025.
Giolito, 29, signed his current deal in hopes of putting a rough couple years behind him and reentering the market in a stronger position. From 2022-23, the right-hander logged 346 innings but pitched to an ineffective 4.89 ERA between the White Sox, Angels and Guardians. A spike in Giolito’s home run rate contributed heavily to the downturn in performance, but he maintained a better-than-average 25.5% strikeout rate against a slightly higher-than-average 9% walk rate in that span.
The primary culprit in Giolito’s struggles was a spike in home run rate; metrics like xFIP (4.08) and SIERA (4.01) felt he was better over the past two seasons than his earned run average would indicate — but also still worse than he was in 2019-21 peak, when he fanned nearly 31% of his opponents against a stronger 8% walk rate.
Now, with Giolito’s entire season in doubt, any chances of rebounding could well be placed on hold for a year or more. At the very least, he’s in for a lengthy IL stint and will be absent to begin the season. That leaves Brayan Bello, Nick Pivetta, Tanner Houck, Kutter Crawford and Garrett Whitlock as the likeliest options to open the season in Boston’s rotation. Others on the 40-man roster include Brandon Walter, Chris Murphy and Cooper Criswell. The Sox have not yet added much in the way of veteran arms on non-roster deals to compete for jobs this spring, and they traded lefty Chris Sale to the Braves in the swap that brought second baseman Vaughn Grissom back to Boston.
A major injury to Giolito will undoubtedly fuel speculation regarding the top remaining arms on the market. Red Sox fans have clamored for Jordan Montgomery for much of the offseason. The team has spoken to him and shown interest at multiple points, including just prior to the start of spring training. The Boston connection for Montgomery is particularly strong, as his wife is doing her medical residency in the city. To this point, ownership and/or the front office have resisted meeting the 31-year-old’s asking price, but pressure to make some kind of move will only increase.
While fellow Boras Corporation clients Cody Bellinger, Matt Chapman and (reportedly) Blake Snell shifted from seeking long-term deals and instead pursued opt-out laden short-term deals, all indications regarding Montgomery to this point have been that he’s still seeking a long-term deal. The Red Sox will need to weigh that ask while determining whether they want to throw more resources at a team that appears poorly positioned to contend for a postseason spot.
Montgomery wouldn’t cost the Sox a draft pick or international money, as he didn’t receive a qualifying offer, and the Sox are about $35MM from the luxury tax threshold, so Montgomery wouldn’t push them to that point either. Snell did reject a QO and would thus cost the Sox their second-best draft pick and $1MM of space in next year’s bonus pool for international amateur free agency. There are, of course, alternative options who’ve also not yet signed. Michael Lorenzen and Mike Clevinger, for instance, are both still available and both performed reasonably well in the majors just last season.