MLBTR Chat Transcript
Steve Adams
- Good morning! Hope everyone enjoyed the Derby last night! We’ll get going at 1pm CT today, but feel free to submit questions ahead of time.
- Greetings!
- Let’s begin.
Tim
- What’s a comparative contract to what bichette is looking for?
Steve Adams
- He’s going to hit free agency ahead of his age-28 season and as (assuming this keeps up) a well above-average hitter in six of his seven MLB seasons, with an injury-ruined 2024 campaign being the outlier.I don’t see any reason he wouldn’t be looking to top the deals signed by Javier Baez (6 years, $140MM), Trevor Story (6/140), Dansby Swanson (7/177) and Willy Adames (7/182) — especially since he’s going to hit free agency a year younger than all of them were when they got to the market.
Brian
- Biggest Phillies need at deadline…OF help or bullpen arms?
Steve Adams
- Bullpen help, but it doesn’t have to be one or the other.
Steve Cohen
- Who would you list as the leading Candidates for ROY in each league? Does Jacob Misorowski have a legitimate shot?
Brewers Fan
- Assumig Misiorowski wins the ROY, how does that change his status with us? Do we lose a year of control? He wasn’t promoted early enough to get a draft pick through the promotional program thing right? The rules around that stuff always confuse me…
Steve Adams
- I love Misiorowski, but Rookie of the Year talk is pretty premature with only five starts. I think it’s fine that they took the buzzworthy rookie and put him on the All-Star team, but to call him the ROY favorite when Drake Baldwin is hitting .279/.351/.479 with plus defense in 65 games feels aggressive.Miz could absolutely end up getting there, but he needs to stay healthy and needs to remain as effective as he’s been, which isn’t a surefire thing for a guy who’s walking 11% of his opponents and benefiting from a .160 BABIP.
Misiorowski will earn a full year of service if he finishes first or second in ROY voting. The Brewers wouldn’t get a pick for that since he wasn’t called up until midseason.
Curious A’s Fan
- Is JJ Bleday the A’s best (realistic) trade chip at the deadline?
Steve Adams
- They’d be selling low, but I can see it. Jeffrey Springs is a more realistic trade option who’d net a decent return, though.
My Name
- With Buxton’s comments about having a no trade clause, will reporters be done with the trade rumors?
Guardians Place Paul Sewald On Injured List
The Guardians placed right-hander Paul Sewald on the 15-day injured list due to a right shoulder strain, reports Tim Stebbins of MLB.com. The move is retroactive to July 12, and a corresponding transaction has not yet been announced by the club. It’s not clear how long Sewald is expected to be out.
It’s the second time this season that the 35-year-old Sewald has been placed on the injured list due to a strain in his throwing shoulder. The former D-backs and Mariners closer signed a one-year, $7MM deal with Cleveland in free agency and struggled for much of April before heading to the IL for what would wind up being a stay of more than two months. Sewald was only reinstated from the injured list on July 5, but it seems his return will only last for a week.
In his limited time with the Guardians, Sewald has pitched to a 4.70 ERA with terrific strikeout and walk rates of 29% and 6.5%, respectively. That’s all come in a sample of just 15 1/3 innings. Sewald allowed eight runs in 11 2/3 innings prior to his original IL stint (6.17 ERA) and returned with 3 2/3 shutout frames before now heading back to the 15-day IL. He’s been more homer-prone than usual in that small sample (1.76 HR/9) and has seen his fastball velocity dip from an average of 91.4 mph last year to just 90.3 mph this season.
Sewald has never thrown particularly hard, but his velocity has been in a steady decline in recent seasons. He averaged a career-best 92.5 mph in 2022 but dipped to 92.2 mph, 91.4 mph and 90.3 mph in subsequent seasons. His swinging-strike rate has dropped accordingly in each season, though he’s still managed to continue posting strong strikeout rates.
Sewald’s placement on the injured list just over two weeks before the trade deadline is increasingly notable, given his team’s recent slide in the standings. The Guardians dropped 10 straight games from June 27 through July 6, though they lessened some of that sting by closing out the first half with six wins in seven games. They’re now three games under .500 and four and a half games out of the final Wild Card spot in the American League.
Cleveland will open the second half with winnable series against the A’s, Orioles, Royals and Rockies — all of whom have records that are comparable to or worse than the Guardians’ own mark of 46-49. If the Guards slip further down the standings, they’d be increasingly likely to listen to offers on short-term veterans like Sewald. If he’s facing a notable absence, that scenario is off the table. Conversely, if the Guardians slice through that slate of opponents in the two weeks between now and the trade deadline, they’d presumably be more apt to add to the club, and Sewald’s absence could increase the front office’s desire to add to the bullpen.
Mets, Yankees Among Teams To Show Recent Interest In David Robertson
Free agent reliever David Robertson has been throwing for interested clubs recently, reports Will Sammon of The Athletic. Two of his former clubs, the Mets and Yankees, have at least looked into the possibility of signing Robertson, per the report. Several other clubs are expected to scout a throwing session for Robertson over the next week or so.
Robertson, who turned 40 in April, hasn’t signed with a team since the 2024 season concluded. The right-hander was one of several notable older veterans who didn’t find offers to his liking in free agency. Lance Lynn encountered a similar situation and opted to retire. J.D. Martinez is unsigned as well and recently received some interest from the Rangers. Robertson’s recent and upcoming showcases for interested teams serve as a notable update on his status, signaling both an intent to play and at least some level of readiness to take the mound.
The lack of a compelling offer for Robertson wasn’t due to any downturn in results. The former All-Star and 16-year MLB veteran was terrific for Texas in 2024, pitching 72 innings of 3.00 ERA ball. Robertson picked up 34 holds and two saves while fanning a huge 33.4% of opponents against a 9.1% walk rate. He averaged 93.3 mph on his go-to cutter, which tied his 2023 mark for the highest of any single season in his career. Robertson’s 11.7% swinging-strike rate was a dip from his 2022-23 levels (13.3%) but right in line with his career 11.8% mark.
Back in April, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reported that Robertson had been seeking a $10MM annual salary in free agency over the winter. He earned $11.5MM with the Rangers last year ($5MM of it deferred). The Phillies also showed some interest in Robertson early in the season, even before Jose Alvarado was hit with an 80-game PED suspension, and they’re known to be on the lookout for bullpen help. It would stand to reason that they’re still interested in a reunion with Robertson themselves.
Presumably, Robertson will be prioritizing a deal with probable contenders. The Yankees, Mets and Phillies all fit that billing and are all among the top eight teams in terms of current playoff odds, per FanGraphs. The Tigers, Cubs, Astros, Blue Jays, Brewers and Mariners are all in extremely favorable postseason position as well, holding at least an 80% postseason chance per the odds at FanGraphs and/or Baseball Prospectus.
Orioles Outright David Bañuelos
The Orioles announced Monday that they’ve passed catcher David Bañuelos through waivers and assigned him outright to Triple-A. He had the right to elect free agency but will instead accept his assignment to Norfolk. The 40-man roster count drops to 38.
The 28-year-old was added to the Orioles’ big league roster last week after the team had traded reliever Bryan Baker to the Rays. Bañuelos was already traveling with the O’s on their taxi squad, and he was selected to the roster ahead of a doubleheader versus the Mets.
A short-term stint seemed likely, given that Bañuelos was selected due to his proximity on the taxi squad and a desire to avoid playing a man down in that twin bill. He’d been the third catcher on the roster behind Jacob Stallings and Alex Jackson, though Baltimore gave him a couple of plate appearances during his brief run. Bañuelos has just three MLB plate appearances and is still looking for his first big league hit. He did reach base for the first time in his career when he was hit by a pitch yesterday.
Bañuelos is the consummate glove-first catcher. He’s a career .197/.276/.362 hitter in parts of four Triple-A seasons but has been praised as a plus defender behind the dish dating back to his days at Long Beach State. He was originally a Mariners draftee but has spent the bulk of his pro career in the Twins’ system after Minnesota acquired him from Seattle in exchange for international bonus space. Bañuelos became a minor league free agent after the 2023 season and has since signed a pair of minor league pacts with the Orioles, who clearly value having his defensive skills on hand in the upper minors. He’s now accepted multiple outright assignments to remain with the O’s, so it seems like a mutually agreeable arrangement.
Adolis Garcia Drawing Trade Interest
Rangers outfielder Adolis Garcia has been drawing trade interest from several teams as the deadline creeps closer, reports Francys Romero of BeisbolFR.com. It’s not yet clear whether or how aggressively the Rangers will sell at this year’s deadline. Texas sits one game below .500 and 8.5 games out of first place in the American League West, but the Rangers are just 3.5 games back from the final Wild Card spot in the American League.
Garcia, 32, is in the midst of a second straight down year at the plate. He slugged 97 home runs for Texas from 2021-23 while batting a combined .246/.305/.472 (113 wRC+), but he’s hitting .228/.282/.401 in 1010 plate appearances dating back to last season (91 wRC+). He’s been hot for the past month, however, as evidenced by a .266/.312/.469 slash over his past 141 trips to the plate. He’s ripped six homers and eight doubles in that span and done so while striking out at a reasonable 21.3% clip (against a 6.4% walk rate).
That dip in strikeouts is particularly encouraging. Garcia fanned in nearly 27% of his plate appearances from Opening Day through early June, and he punched out at a 27.8% rate last year. He’s cut down considerably on his chase rate and his swinging-strike rate during this recent hot stretch, and when he does make contact, the quality is strong: 92.8 mph average exit velocity, 13.9% barrel rate, 48.5% hard-hit rate.
In addition to a recent uptick in offensive performance, Garcia is enjoying a bounceback year defensively as well. The two-time All-Star and 2023 Gold Glove winner saw his once-excellent defensive grades crater in 2024. Defensive Runs Saved (-5) and Statcast’s Outs Above Average (-13) both felt he was one of the worst defensive outfielders in the sport last year. It’s possible there was some carryover from a knee injury suffered late in the 2023 season, as Garcia’s average sprint speed in 2024 sat at a career-worst 26.7 feet per second. He’s not all the way back up to peak levels in 2025, but his 27.3 ft/sec is an improvement. DRS again has him among the game’s elite outfielders (+14), while OAA (+1) feels he’s at least back on the positive side of things.
Garcia is controllable via arbitration for one more season beyond the current campaign. If Texas falls too far out of the playoff picture, it makes sense to listen on him, although there’s an argument that they should be open-minded even if they push more firmly into the postseason chase in the next couple weeks. Garcia has always had strikeout and OBP concerns. He’s due what should be a notable raise on this year’s $9.25MM salary as he heads into his final season of club control. In Wyatt Langford and Evan Carter, the Rangers have two long-term outfield spots locked in place.
There’s no top outfield prospect on the immediate horizon, but Garcia is only controlled one more year, will command a notable eight-figure salary and up until June 10 or so had the look of a plausible non-tender candidate. His well-timed hot streak and a generally short supply of impact bats on the market might allow the Rangers to bring in some young talent and free up some payroll space at a time when Jon Gray, Tyler Mahle, Patrick Corbin and half the Texas bullpen (Chris Martin, Hoby Milner, Shawn Armstrong, Luke Jackson) will be up for free agency at season’s end.
Royals Place Michael Lorenzen On Injured List
The Royals have placed right-hander Michael Lorenzen on the 15-day injured list due to a left oblique strain, per a team announcement. The move is retroactive to July 11, so he’ll be eligible to return no sooner than July 26. He joins fellow starters Cole Ragans (rotator cuff strain) and Alec Marsh (shoulder impingement) on the injured list.
Lorenzen, 33, re-signed with the Royals on a one-year deal worth $7MM this past offseason. He’s been a serviceable back-end option for Kansas City, taking the ball 18 times and pitching to a 4.61 ERA with a 20% strikeout rate and 6.8% walk rate in 99 1/3 innings. Lorenzen had his two worst starts of the season back-to-back on May 26 (six runs in five innings) and on June 3 (seven runs in 2 2/3 innings), but he’s rebounded with a tidy 3.63 earned run average and a 31-to-9 K/BB ratio over his past six starts (34 2/3 innings).
Kansas City didn’t specify a projected timetable for Lorenzen’s return, though even Grade 1 oblique strains (the least-severe) can sideline players for upwards of a month. The Royals also did not announce a corresponding move at this time. They’ll open the second half with three games in Miami and would need a fifth starter for the second game of their following series against the Cubs at Wrigley Field on July 22.
With Lorenzen headed to the shelf, the Royals only have four healthy starters on the major league roster: Kris Bubic, Seth Lugo, Michael Wacha and Noah Cameron. It’s a talented quartet, but the depth beyond the group is shaky.
Right-handers Kyle Wright and Luinder Avila are both on the 40-man roster in Triple-A but are both injured; Wright is dealing with a Grade 2 oblique strain, while Avila has been out since late May due to a shoulder impingement. Rich Hill, Thomas Hatch and Dallas Keuchel are among the veteran options who are in the Royals’ system but not on the 40-man roster (although Keuchel just signed last week). Down in Double-A, prospects Ben Kudrna, Steven Zobac and Frank Mozzicato are having tough seasons. The Royals could opt for bullpen games in the fifth spot if Lorenzen isn’t expected to be shelved much beyond the minimum 15 days. Righty Jonathan Bowlan tossed three innings in his most recent appearance and could handle the bulk of bullpen game if the need arises.
Blue Jays, Joe Mantiply Agree To Minor League Deal
The Blue Jays have agreed to a minor league contract with left-handed reliever Joe Mantiply, per the transaction log at MiLB.com. Toronto also recently inked utilityman Buddy Kennedy to a minor league pact after he was released by the Phillies. He’s already made his debut with their Triple-A affiliate.
Mantiply was released by the Diamondbacks in early June after struggling considerably early in the year. The 34-year-old has a nice track record and was an important piece of Arizona’s bullpen from 2021-24, tossing 198 1/3 frames with a 3.63 earned run average, 22% strikeout rate, 6.1% walk rate and 51.9% ground-ball rate. He picked up three saves and 50 holds over that four-year run.
That track record feels like a distant memory after Mantiply was rocked for a 15.83 ERA in 9 2/3 big league innings this season. He’s never been a hard-thrower, but Mantiply’s 88.2 mph average fastball in 2025 was well shy of its 91.3 mph peak or even last year’s 89.5 mph average. Mantiply has struggled both in the majors and in Triple-A this season; he was tagged for a 5.56 ERA in 11/3 innings with the Diamondbacks’ Reno affiliate.
The Jays already have a pair of lefties in the big league bullpen: Justin Bruihl and breakout setup man Brendon Little. A third southpaw, Mason Fluharty, was just optioned to Triple-A Buffalo late in the season’s first half. Bruihl is a minor league signee who was just selected to the big league roster a few weeks ago. Fluharty was excellent up into early June but was rocked for a dozen runs in a span of 7 1/3 innings before being optioned back to Buffalo.
Mantiply will add some left-handed depth beyond that trio. He’ll join Amir Garrett — also with the Jays’ Triple-A club — as a veteran lefty reliever with some track record hoping to earn a look in Toronto.
Kennedy has appeared in parts of four major league seasons between the D-backs, Tigers and Phillies, but he’s only tallied 157 plate appearances in that time. He’s a .193/.287/.296 hitter at the big league level but touts a nice .279/.388/.432 slash in just over 1600 Triple-A plate appearances. Kennedy has already taken eight plate appearances in Buffalo, going 0-for-7 with a walk. He’s primarily played second base and third base in pro ball but does have more than 400 innings at first base and 93 innings of left field work under his belt.
D-backs Have Listened To Offers On Outfield Depth
The Diamondbacks remain on the fringes of the NL postseason picture, sitting five and a half games out in the Wild Card chase. General manager Mike Hazen has said he hopes the team performs well enough to position itself as a late buyer, but the GM has also at least been listening to offers on some of his outfielders, Jon Heyman of the New York Post reports. That does not include star Corbin Carroll, unsurprisingly, but Heyman suggests names like Alek Thomas, Jake McCarthy, Lourdes Gurriel Jr. and Randal Grichuk have likely been discussed.
Of the four outfielders, Grichuk is the most obvious trade candidate. He’s playing the 2025 season on a one-year, $5MM contract. He’ll unlock a $250K bonus when he reaches his 200th plate appearance — he’s currently at 174 — and another $250K if he reaches 275 plate appearances.
Grichuk’s contract is structured such that Grichuk is owed a $2MM salary and a $3MM buyout on a $5MM mutual option for next year. That makes him a bit more expensive for the rest of the season than a standard one-year, $5MM contract would imply; he’d have about $634K in salary remaining at the time of the trade deadline but also that $3MM buyout and some potential incentive pay. Of course, the D-backs could make a trade more appealing by including cash to offset some of that backloaded 2025 salary.
The 2025 season hasn’t been Grichuk’s best, but he’s still hitting for power. The 33-year-old is batting .242/.282/.466 with seven homers, 13 doubles and a triple in his 174 trips to the plate. His 5.7% walk rate is right in line with his career mark. His 21.6% strikeout rate is down from his career level of about 25% but noticeably higher than the personal-best 16.5% clip he turned in last year in a more productive season with the Snakes.
Gurriel, 31, is a tougher sell from a trade standpoint. He’s being paid $14MM this season and is guaranteed $13MM in 2026 plus at least a $5MM buyout on a $14MM club option for the 2027 season. His .251/.299/.421 batting line (98 wRC+) already represents a down year, and any team to acquire him would know Gurriel will either opt into the remaining $18MM he’s guaranteed beyond the current season or go on a second-half tear and opt out. It’s not an appealing structure, and the Diamondbacks would probably need to eat a significant portion of the remaining money he’s owed to facilitate a trade.
Thomas and McCarthy are both controllable lefty-swinging outfielders, but neither is having a good season at the plate. Thomas, once touted as one of the top outfield prospects in baseball, has yet to hit in parts of four major league seasons. He’s an above-average runner and strong defensive center fielder, but this year’s .245/.295/.366 batting line (84 wRC+) is actually the best of the 25-year-old’s young career. He’s a lifetime .230/.276/.360 hitter in just under 1200 big league plate appearances.
McCarthy, on the other hand, has had plenty of big league success at the plate — just not in 2025. He hit .283/.342/.427 in 99 games back in 2022 (116 wRC+) and slashed .285/.349/.400 (110 wRC+) as recently as last season. He had a down year in 2023, however, and the 27-year-old has struggled to a career-worst .144/.228/.244 line (33 wRC+) in 102 trips to the plate this season.
That’s a relatively small sample, of course, and McCarthy has had some demonstrably poor luck. He’s hitting just .151 on balls in play — less than half the .328 career mark he carried into the season and some 130 points lower than the league average. McCarthy isn’t hitting the ball hard at all (83.9 mph average exit velocity, 23.7% hard-hit rate), but he also had poor batted-ball metrics even in his more productive 2022 and 2024 seasons. His 15.7% strikeout rate remains excellent, and McCarthy has walked at a solid 8.8% rate.
The D-backs optioned McCarthy to Triple-A after a rough three-week start and only recalled him back in late June. He batted .314/.401/.440 in 237 plate appearances with the Diamondbacks’ top affiliate in Reno and has put together an improved (albeit still diminished) .222/.300/.400 slash in his past 51 major league plate appearances.
Both Thomas and McCarthy are controllable for an additional three seasons. Both are eligible for arbitration for the first time this offseason. The Diamondbacks burned McCarthy’s final option year when they sent him down to Triple-A back in April. He’ll be out of minor league options next year. Thomas also entered 2025 with one option year remaining, but his is still intact, as he hasn’t been sent down at any point this season.
Vinny Nittoli To Opt Out Of Brewers Deal
Reliever Vinny Nittoli plans to trigger the opt-out clause in his minor league deal with the Brewers, reports Ari Alexander of KPRC-2. The actual opt-out date is tomorrow and will give the Brewers 24 hours to add Nittoli to the big league roster, MLBTR has learned. If the Brewers choose not to select Nittoli to the roster, he’ll become a free agent.
The 34-year-old Nittoli pitched in the majors each season from 2021-24 but has totaled just 18 2/3 MLB frames in that time. He’s pitched to a sharp 2.41 ERA across those four seasons, which have been split between the Mariners, Phillies, Mets, A’s and Orioles. Nittoli has fanned 17.3% of his major league opponents against a 6.7% walk rate.
Nittoli has spent the 2025 season with the Brewers’ Triple-A club in Nashville, pitching to a 3.86 ERA with an impressive 28.9% strikeout rate and an 8.6% walk rate. The journeyman right-hander doesn’t throw hard, sitting just 88-90 mph with his go-to cutter, but he’s induced chases on pitches off the plate at a strong 35.1% clip and recorded an excellent 14.3% swinging-strike rate during his time in Nashville this season.
The Brewers already have a strong bullpen. Milwaukee relievers rank 18th in the majors with a 4.00 ERA, but that includes some early struggles by Joel Payamps, swingman Tyler Alexander and righty Elvin Rodriguez — none of whom are on the 40-man roster at this point. Each of Trevor Megill, Abner Uribe, Aaron Ashby, Jared Koenig, Nick Mears, Grant Anderson and DL Hall has an ERA of 3.69 or better. Five of those seven are under 3.00 (including a 1.66 mark for Ashby). The Brewers’ bullpen has a flat 3.00 ERA over the past calendar month — second-lowest in MLB.
Given the strength of that group, there’s no urgent need to add Nittoli, who’s out of minor league options and would need to stick in the big league bullpen if he’s selected. If the Brewers don’t want to lose the depth, they could select Nittoli to the 40-man roster and option Tobias Myers back to Nashville. (Myers was just recalled a few days before the All-Star break and didn’t get into a game.) The rest of the ‘pen is largely set, however, so the Brewers may wind up letting Nittoli explore opportunities elsewhere despite his solid results in Nashville.
Trade Deadline Outlook: Seattle Mariners
The Mariners are up next in our team-by-team Trade Deadline Outlook series. Seattle last made the postseason in 2022 and has had numerous near misses in recent years under president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto and general manager Justin Hollander. The Mariners' vaunted young rotation has long been the talk of baseball, but the M's also have an excellent farm system they can leverage to improve the roster over the next three weeks.
Record: 49-45 (Playoff probability 61.4%, per FanGraphs)
Other series entries: Rockies, Giants, Phillies, Pirates, Astros, Marlins, Athletics, Orioles, White Sox, Nationals, Cubs, Rays, Dodgers, Braves, Yankees, Angels, Mets, Blue Jays
Buy Mode
Potential Needs: First base, third base, late-inning reliever
The Mariners needed offense throughout the winter but were afforded little to no financial resources to make it happen. Dipoto and Hollander dealt with substantial payroll restrictions for a second straight winter, reportedly trying to stretch a budget of about $15-16MM to acquire as many as three different bats. The resulting additions -- Jorge Polanco, Rowdy Tellez, Donovan Solano -- haven't paid off much. Polanco has been quite productive but has been relegated to DH duty for much of the season due to injuries. Tellez was released last month. Solano has hit better over the past five weeks or so but has been a liability for most of the year.
On top of those underwhelming additions, the M's have been plagued by injuries. Victor Robles suffered a shoulder injury that'll cost him more than half the season. Luke Raley missed more than a month with an oblique injury. Second baseman Ryan Bliss ruptured his biceps in April and will likely miss the remainder of the season.
Fortunately for the Mariners' baseball operations staff, it seems ownership has come around on spending to further bolster the lineup. It's not clear just how far north they're willing to take payroll, but even a relatively modest increase could be a boon for a club that could clearly use help at two corner spots. So, where can the Mariners turn?
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