Latest At RotoAuthority.com
My six-year-old fantasy baseball website, RotoAuthority, re-launched this week, with a team of writers and tons of great content. The latest:
- Bullpen depth charts for all 30 teams by Tim Dierkes.
- 7 Pitchers You Have To Draft, by Edwin Van Bibber-Orr.
- Dan Mennella explains why Kenley Jansen is a sleeper and Michael Young is a bust.
Rangers Close To Deal With Yu Darvish
The Rangers have a 4pm central time deadline to sign Yu Darvish today. If they fail to reach an agreement with agents Don Nomura and Arn Tellem, the $51,703,411 posting fee will not be paid to the Nippon Ham Fighters and Darvish will return to Japan for the 2012 season. The latest:
- The sides are closing in on a five-year deal with a player option for a sixth year, Jeff Wilson of the Fort Worth Star-Telegram reports.
- Darvish's agreement with the Rangers is expected to be for six years, tweets Jon Heyman of CBS Sports.
- The Rangers are close to a deal with Darvish, tweets Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports. He elaborates that the Rangers and Darvish "are still working on details, but they are making good progress" with four hours remaining until the deadline. The deal will get done, according to Jon Heyman's sources.
- The Rangers are "cautiously optimistic that Darvish will be signed," reports Jeff Wilson of the Fort Worth Star-Telegram.
Gerardo Concepcion Close To Free Agency
18-year-old Cuban lefty Gerardo Concepcion has established residency in Mexico, agent Jaime Torres told Enrique Rojas of ESPNDeportesLosAngeles.com. He should be able to declare free agency and negotiate with Major League teams very soon. The Yankees, Rangers, Cubs, White Sox, and Phillies are among the interested clubs, Rojas tweets.
Concepcion defected from Cuba during a tournament in the Netherlands last June, as did Aroldis Chapman.
Extension Candidate: Daniel Hudson
The Diamondbacks' Daniel Hudson has a sweet resume for a starting pitcher with one year and 117 days of Major League service time. He's already racked up 336 career innings (222 last year) and also has 25 wins and a 3.19 ERA. What are his extension prospects?
As I showed in my Madison Bumgarner post, pitchers with less than two years of service time don't get big bucks on extensions. Hudson and Bumgarner currently have much better bodies of work than James Shields, Ubaldo Jimenez, Brett Anderson, and Wade Davis did, but they probably couldn't push the guaranteed money much past $15MM by signing now. Instead, Hudson and Bumgarner may attempt to set a new standard for pitchers with between two and three years of service, one year from now.
The two-to-three record holder is Gio Gonzalez, who flew past the standard $30MM extension by getting a $42MM guarantee from the Nationals. However, Gonzalez is not a good comparison for Hudson, as the former was a Super Two. Hudson won't be. The Proformance client will go to arbitration three times, beginning with the 2014 season.
The typical 2+ pitcher extension is a four-year, $30MM deal, signed by Jon Lester, Clay Buchholz, Yovani Gallardo, Trevor Cahill, and Ricky Romero. These deals included one or two club options. Hudson will match this group in service time after the 2012 season, but he already matches them in overall statistics. Hudson already has more innings and wins than Gallardo did and more strikeouts than Lester or Cahill. If Hudson reaches his 2012 Bill James projections, he'll have at least a 185 inning, 11 win, 141 strikeout, and significant ERA advantage over any of those 2+ peers. Hudson and Bumgarner will likely be in a class by themselves, and if they sign extensions a year from now they ought to be able to raise the bar to $40MM over five years for non-Super Two 2+ pitchers.
Photo courtesy of Icon SMI.
Red Sox Still Interested In Gavin Floyd
WEDNESDAY, 11:30am: The Red Sox are still showing interest in Floyd, tweets Morosi.
TUESDAY, 9:15am: We haven't heard a ton about righty Gavin Floyd lately, but the White Sox are still listening on the soon-to-be 29-year-old, tweets Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports. White Sox GM Kenny Williams has traded Carlos Quentin, Sergio Santos, and Jason Frasor this winter, but he's held onto his starting pitching and even extended John Danks.
This winter top young starters Michael Pineda, Mat Latos, Gio Gonzalez, and Trevor Cahill have been traded, but all came with at least four years of team control. Floyd and crosstown hurler Matt Garza are in the next tier along with Jair Jurrjens, with two years of control at higher prices. Two years of Floyd will cost $16.5MM in salary plus prospects. Floyd is capable of 30 starts and a sub-4.00 ERA, so he's still plenty valuable and may represent a more reasonable commitment than a four-year deal for Edwin Jackson. The Yankees figure to be done rotation shopping, but the Red Sox, Blue Jays, and Pirates are potential fits in my opinion.
Hamels’ Agent: Weaver Contract Not A Parallel
Cole Hamels now owns the second-largest salary in arbitration history ($15MM), and he's not stopping there. Agent John Boggs expects his client to be compensated as an "elite pitcher," and he doesn't consider Jered Weaver's team-friendly five-year, $85MM deal a factor. Explained Boggs to Jim Salisbury of CSNPhilly.com:
"I don't think it's a parallel. That contract is great for Jered. I understand it. But he took a different path and left a lot of money on the table. He came up through the Angels system and grew up in their backyard. He's pitching where he grew up. That situation appeals to him. It's a similar situation to when I had Tony Gwynn. Without getting into specifics of what we're looking for, the Weaver situation is unique to Weaver."
Weaver's contract covered his final arbitration year and then four free agent seasons at an average of $17.5MM. Unlike Weaver, Hamels was a Super Two player, and the salary of his final arbitration year has already been determined. Hamels' new contract will probably only cover free agent years. Even if he doesn't reach the $23-24MM range of C.C. Sabathia and Cliff Lee, I think six years and $120MM is just a starting point for Hamels, who will turn 29 during the 2012-13 offseason.
The Phillies have first dibs. According to Boggs, "When you're this close [to free-agency] you have mixed emotions. But Cole has come through the Phillies organization, and if you asked him his preference, more than likely he'd want to remain with the Phillies. That's how it would be going into the negotiations, but every negotiation is different. Everything depends on our perceived value of what Cole is worth and what their perceived value of him is. That will dictate if a long-term deal gets done. We'll always give the Phillies every opportunity to secure him."
Detail On Gio Gonzalez’s Option Years
The second option on Gio Gonzalez's new contract with the Nationals is a vesting one, MLBTR has learned. If the Nationals exercise their $12MM club option for 2017, an option for '18 at the same salary will vest if Gonzalez pitches 180 innings in '17.
Yesterday, Mark Zuckerman of CSNWashington.com and Nats Insider tweeted the year-by-year salary breakdown of Gonzalez's five-year, $42MM deal. The contract is the largest ever for a starting pitcher with less than three years of service time.
Epstein Compensation In Selig’s Hands
The Red Sox requested in late December that MLB commissioner Bud Selig resolve the Theo Epstein compensation issue, reports Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times. The Cubs were granted permission to speak to Epstein by the Red Sox and hired him as president of baseball operations in October. Since then, the two teams have been unable to determine what compensation the Red Sox should receive for Epstein, since he had a year remaining on his contract.
Back on November 17th, Epstein said talks were "very amicable" and lots of jokes were being made on the topic. At that point, the plan was to re-engage after the Rule 5 draft, which happened on December 8th.
Last Thursday on WEEI's Dennis & Callahan show, Epstein said he and new Red Sox GM Ben Cherington were trying to work it out, but they might need some help to get it done. Epstein explained his stance: "Throughout the history of baseball, there's really only a handful of instances in which there's been any compensation whatsoever for executives." He added that in those cases, "compensation has been pretty reasonable. When Andy MacPhail, who had won two World Series, left on a lateral move from Minnesota to Chicago back in '94, his compensation was the 30th-ranked prospect in the Cubs' system [Hector Trinidad] and a little bit of cash." In Epstein's opinion, "There's no precedent for major, major compensation here." The Red Sox feel that Epstein is more valuable than MacPhail or any manager, according to Wittenmyer, and CEO Larry Lucchino has at various points floated the names of Matt Garza and Brett Jackson.
Falling Arbitration Records
Back in April, I outlined the arbitration records for catchers, other position players, and starting pitchers. As expected, some records will fall in 2012.
Going to arbitration for a fourth time, Mike Napoli is a lock to top Ivan Rodriguez's third-time catcher salary of $6.825MM. Players have to love Super Two status. Napoli's 2012 salary range is $8.3-11.5MM, with a $9.9MM midpoint. We'll see whether long-term extension talks kick back up.
As first reported by MLBTR's Ben Nicholson-Smith, Boston's Jacoby Ellsbury settled at $8.05MM for his second time through arbitration. Ellsbury never had much chance at what I consider the second-time record, Miguel Cabrera's $11.3MM salary from 2007. That salary was folded into a multiyear deal a few months after the agreement, but it remained unchanged.
The third-time position player record could be Prince Fielder's $15.5MM, though that was preceded by a multiyear deal. Limiting it to year-to-year players, Alfonso Soriano's $10MM from 2006 fell with Andre Ethier's new $10.95MM deal, which could be topped again if Napoli or Hunter Pence win an arbitration hearing. Pence's filing figures are $9MM and $11.8MM, with a $10.4MM midpoint. He gets to cash in one more time as an arbitration eligible player in 2013, assuming he doesn't sign an extension with the Phillies.
This year David Price was unable to push past Dontrelle Willis' first-time starting pitcher settlement record of $4.35MM, set in 2006. Some may consider Jered Weaver the record holder at $4.365MM, if an earned $100K award bonus is included. Regardless, Clayton Kershaw crushes them all with his new $6.5-10MM range ($8.25MM midpoint). Should Kershaw win an arbitration hearing or settle at the midpoint, he'll be at the Tim Lincecum pay scale. The midpoint would beat Lincecum's first-time starting pitcher record filing figure of $8MM, which preceded his two-year deal.
The third-time starting pitcher record is Carlos Zambrano's $12.4MM. With a $17-21.5MM spread and $19.25MM midpoint, Lincecum will fly past that, though he's coming off a multiyear deal. Similarly, Cole Hamels settled at $15MM as a fourth-time arbitration player, but his first three years were covered in multiyear deal. In a technical sense, Hamels' salary is second only to Fielder's $15.5MM in terms of arbitration settlements, and Lincecum will easily top both unless he signs a multiyear deal.
Be sure to keep track of all the arbitration settlements, submissions, and midpoints with MLBTR's arbitration tracker.
Players Avoiding Arbitration: Tuesday
Dozens of arbitration eligible players have agreed to deals with their respective teams today and we've been tracking all of the developments right here. Several teams, including the Rays, Nationals, Marlins, White Sox, Blue Jays, Braves, and perhaps Astros, are known for committing to going to hearings if they get to the point of filing. Keep track of all the madness with MLBTR's arbitration tracker, which shows settlement amounts, filing figures, and midpoints. Today's players to avoid arbitration on deals worth less than $4MM:
- The Cardinals avoided arbitration with pitcher Kyle McClellan, tweets B.J. Rains of FOX Sports Midwest. Joe Strauss of The St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports (on Twitter) that the one-year deal is worth $2.5MM with incentives based on starts. MLBTR projected a $2.7MM for the Steve Comte client.
- MLBTR's Ben Nicholson-Smith reports (on Twitter) that the Padres and Chase Headley agreed to a one-year deal worth $3.475MM, avoiding arbitration. Earlier this evening, the Padres announced that they avoided arbitration with Luke Gregerson, Edinson Volquez, Carlos Quentin and Will Venable. They also avoided arbitration with lefty reliever Joe Thatcher on a deal worth $700K, tweets Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports. CAA announced catcher John Baker has signed for $750K. Bill Center of the San Diego Union-Tribune first reported that the Padres reached agreements with Hundley, Chase Headley, and Tim Stauffer. Hundley will earn $2MM in 2012, MLB.com's Corey Brock tweets. Dan Hayes of the North County Times tweets the salaries for Volquez ($2.2375MM), Venable ($1.475MM), Gregerson ($1.55MM)
- The Rangers avoided arbitration with Matt Harrison, tweets Evan Grant of The Dallas Morning News. The ACES client gets $2.95MM on a one-year deal. MLBTR had projected a $2.9MM salary.
- The Cubs announced that they have avoided arbitration with Jeff Baker ($1.375MM), Blake DeWitt ($1.1MM), Ian Stewart ($2.237MM) Chris Volstad ($2.655MM), and Randy Wells ($2.705MM). MLB.com's Carrie Muskat tweeted the salary figures.