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Out Of Options 2014

By Tim Dierkes | March 13, 2014 at 3:23pm CDT

The following 40-man roster players have less than five years service time and are out of minor league options.  That means they must clear waivers before being sent to the minors.  I've included players on multiyear deals.  This list was compiled through MLBTR's sources.  For context on each team's situation, please check out my six-part series.

Angels

Ernesto Frieri, Kevin Jepsen, Andrew Romine

Astros

Chris Carter, Lucas Harrell, Raul Valdes

Athletics

Daric Barton, Josh Donaldson, Brandon Moss, Fernando Abad, Jesse Chavez, Chris Gimenez, Michael Taylor

Blue Jays

Brett Cecil, Jeremy Jeffress, Luis Perez, Esmil Rogers, Sergio Santos, Todd Redmond, Moises Sierra

Braves

Cory Gearrin, David Carpenter, Ramiro Pena, Jordan Schafer, Anthony Varvaro

Brewers

Juan Francisco, Jeff Bianchi

Cubs

George Kottaras, Wesley Wright, Justin Ruggiano, James McDonald, Pedro Strop, Welington Castillo, Jeff Samardzija, Luis Valbuena, Travis Wood, Donnie Murphy, Alberto Cabrera

Diamondbacks

Randall Delgado, Matt Tuiasosopo

Dodgers

Scott Elbert, Javy Guerra, Drew Butera

Giants

David Huff, Joaquin Arias, Gregor Blanco, Yusmeiro Petit, Jean Machi, Ehire Adrianza, Tony Abreu

Indians

Carlos Carrasco, Josh Outman

Mariners

Hector Noesi

Marlins

Garrett Jones, Brian Bogusevic, Brad Hand, Jacob Turner

Mets

Eric Young Jr., Ruben Tejada, Carlos Torres

Nationals

Jose Lobaton, Jerry Blevins, Tyler Clippard, Ross Detwiler

Orioles

Edgmer Escalona, Chris Davis, Tommy Hunter, Troy Patton, Nolan Reimold, Chris Tillman, Zach Britton, Kelvin De La Cruz, David Lough, Brian Matusz, Steve Pearce, Francisco Peguero, Josh Stinson

Padres

Cameron Maybin, Eric Stults, Dale Thayer, Yonder Alonso, Rene Rivera, Alex Torres

Phillies

John Mayberry Jr., Kevin Frandsen, Brad Lincoln

Pirates

Chris Stewart, Jeanmar Gomez, Mark Melancon, Travis Snider, Jose Tabata, Bryan Morris, Andy Oliver, Stolmy Pimentel, Pedro Alvarez, Vin Mazzaro

Rangers

Engel Beltre, Pedro Figueroa, Adam Rosales, Michael Kirkman

Rays

Jake McGee, Cesar Ramos, Matt Joyce, Chris Archer, Josh Lueke, Brandon Guyer

Red Sox

Mike Carp, Felix Doubront

Reds

Alfredo Simon

Rockies

Jordan Pacheco, Tyler Chatwood

Royals

Brett Hayes, Jarrod Dyson, Justin Maxwell, Pedro Ciriaco, Francisley Bueno, Carlos Peguero, Danny Valencia

Tigers

Don Kelly, Evan Reed, Jose Iglesias

Twins

Trevor Plouffe, Anthony Swarzak, Scott Diamond, Sam Deduno, Vance Worley, Eduardo Escobar, Alex Presley, Chris Parmelee

White Sox

Conor Gillaspie, Ronald Belisario, Mitchell Boggs, Maikel Cleto, Donnie Veal, Alejandro De Aza, Dayan Viciedo

Yankees

Francisco Cervelli, Ivan Nova

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Out Of Options 2014

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Out Of Options Players: AL West

By Tim Dierkes | March 13, 2014 at 1:21pm CDT

The following 40-man roster players have less than five years service time and are out of minor league options.  That means they must clear waivers before being sent to the minors, so the team would be at risk of losing them in attempting to do so.  I've included players on multiyear deals.  This list was compiled through MLBTR's sources.  Our series concludes with the AL West.

Angels: Ernesto Frieri, Kevin Jepsen, Andrew Romine

Frieri is the team's closer, and Jepsen has a spot in the pen as well.  About a week ago, Mike DiGiovanna of the L.A. Times noted that Angels manager Mike Scioscia said the team could open the season with an eight-man bullpen. DiGiovanna further explained, "Carrying an extra reliever and a five-man rotation would limit the Angels to a three-man bench consisting of a backup catcher, utility infielder and outfielder."

Romine is battling non-roster invitee John McDonald for that utility infielder job, though as MLB.com's Alden Gonzalez noted earlier this month, Grant Green appears to have joined the mix.

Astros: Chris Carter, Lucas Harrell, Raul Valdes

Carter will serve as the team's designated hitter.  Harrell is looking to reclaim a spot in the Astros' rotation, which is something of an open competition behind Scott Feldman.  Valdes, a lefty reliever, is the oldest player in Astros camp at age 36, according to Evan Drellich of the Houston Chronicle.  He's competing for a lefty relief spot with Darin Downs and Kevin Chapman, wrote Drellich a week ago.

Athletics: Daric Barton, Josh Donaldson, Brandon Moss, Fernando Abad, Jesse Chavez, Chris Gimenez, Michael Taylor

Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle wrote about Taylor on Monday and Tuesday, noting that a scout told her a change of scenery might do some good for the 28-year-old outfielder.  Slusser says non-roster invitee Sam Fuld is ahead of Taylor to potentially fill in for Craig Gentry if Gentry needs to start the season on the DL.  Slusser wrote Monday that Barton will need at least a few more days to recover from a hamstring strain.  Barton doesn't fit well at first base in a potential platoon with Moss, wrote John Hickey of the Mercury News in February, so it could be difficult for him to find a roster spot.  Moss seems assured of semi-regular first base duty after hitting 51 home runs for the A's over the past two years.  Donaldson is the team's starting third baseman after a breakout 2013.

Gimenez is seemingly fourth on the A's depth chart at catcher, so he has an uphill battle for a roster spot out of camp.

MLB.com's Chris Gabel wrote about Abad yesterday, noting that he's competing with Drew Pomeranz and Joe Savery to become the second lefty in Oakland's bullpen.  Though Abad has surrendered a few runs in his six innings of spring work to date, Gabel quotes A's manager Bob Melvin as praising the 28-year-old, leading the writer to speculate that "he might already have secured a spot in the A's bullpen."  Last week, MLB.com's Jane Lee wrote that Chavez "appears to be a lock" for the team's pen. 

Mariners: Hector Noesi

The Mariners have an open rotation competition after Felix Hernandez in the wake of injuries to Hisashi Iwakuma and Taijuan Walker, wrote MLB.com's John Schlegel on Tuesday.  James Paxton, Scott Baker, and Erasmo Ramirez might be the favorites, though, meaning Noesi is really competing for one spot.  Noesi could instead be a long reliever out of the bullpen, Bob Dutton of the News Tribune suggested a week ago.

Rangers: Engel Beltre, Pedro Figueroa, Adam Rosales, Michael Kirkman

In a roster projection from Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News today, he included both Beltre and Michael Choice, noting that the team doesn't want to lose Beltre.  Keeping both Beltre and Choice might mean sending catcher Robinson Chirinos to Triple-A despite an impressive spring.  Grant sees Rosales as the team's best backup infield option over Brent Lillibridge and Kevin Kouzmanoff, because Rosales can play second base, shortstop, and third base.

Kirkman is part of Grant's projected seven-man bullpen, while Figueroa is not.  As a lefty who throws 95 miles per hour, Figueroa was intriguing enough to the Rangers for the club to claim him off waivers from the Rays in late January.  It seems the Rangers will be forced to choose one of the two, barring a trade or injury.

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Offseason In Review: Chicago White Sox

By Tim Dierkes | March 11, 2014 at 4:17pm CDT

The White Sox made an early splash by signing a powerful 27-year-old Cuban first baseman, acquired a new center fielder, swapped their closer for a third base prospect, and tinkered with small-scale free agent signings.

Major League Signings

  • Jose Abreu, 1B: six years, $68MM (may opt into arbitration once eligible)
  • Scott Downs, RP: one year, $4MM (includes $4.25MM club option for 2015 with $250K buyout)
  • Matt Lindstrom, RP: one year, $4MM (club option exercised)
  • Ronald Belisario, RP: one year, $3MM (can be controlled through 2016 as arbitration eligible player)
  • Paul Konerko, 1B/DH: one year, $2.5MM ($1MM deferred until 2021)
  • Felipe Paulino, SP: one year, $1.75MM ($4MM club option for 2015 with a $250K buyout)
  • Mitchell Boggs, RP: one year, $1.1MM (can be controlled through 2015 as arbitration eligible player)
  • Total spend: $84.35MM

Notable Minor League Signings

  • Dylan Axelrod, David Purcey, Brian Omogrosso, Zach Putnam, Mauricio Robles, Hector Gimenez, Alex Liddi, Eric Patterson

Trades and Claims

  • Acquired 1B Jackson Laumann from Braves for cash considerations
  • Acquired OF Adam Eaton from Diamondbacks, gave up P Hector Santiago and OF Brandon Jacobs
  • Acquired 3B Matt Davidson from Diamondbacks for RP Addison Reed
  • Claimed C Adrian Nieto from Nationals in Rule 5 draft
  • Claimed SP Eric Surkamp from Giants
  • Claimed RP Maikel Cleto from Royals
  • Acquired a player to be named later or cash considerations from Athletics for IF Jake Elmore
  • Acquired cash considerations from Braves for SP Zach Stewart

Notable Losses

  • Hector Santiago, Brandon Jacobs, Addison Reed, Gavin Floyd, Santos Rodriguez, Brent Morel

Needs Addressed

White Sox GM Rick Hahn explained his plan to Paul Sullivan of the Chicago Tribune in late October: "Obviously getting better quickly is the goal, but the final determining factor is whether it's going to make us better for an extended period of time. I'm not going to keep churning this thing every two years with short-term fixes. Eventually you have to pay the piper for that and we want to set up something that's sustainable over an extended period."  Hahn also made it clear in various offseason interviews that he felt good about the team's pitching depth and aimed to add position players.

Abreu-Jose

It's no surprise, then, that the key moves of Hahn's offseason involved acquiring three position players.  Jose Abreu (pictured), Adam Eaton, and Matt Davidson are all in their 20s, with Abreu the oldest at 27.  Abreu is controlled through 2019, Eaton through '18, and Davidson through '19 or later.  The newly-acquired trio is Major League ready or close to it, as is summer acquisition Avisail Garcia.

As I explained shortly before the October signing, Abreu checks all the boxes for the White Sox: long-term value, a contract that isn't monstrous by typical free agent standards, and no loss of a draft pick to sign him.  Five teams offered $60MM+ for the Cuban slugger, but the White Sox prevailed with a six-year, $68MM deal that stands as the largest ever for an international free agent and the largest in team history.  The White Sox hope Abreu can provide 30+ home runs annually as their first baseman for the next six years.

The Eaton trade was struck during baseball's Winter Meetings, in a collaboration with the Diamondbacks and Angels.  The main piece the Sox had to surrender was 26-year-old southpaw Hector Santiago, who compiled a 3.51 ERA, 8.4 K/9, 4.3 BB/9, and 1.10 HR/9 in 130 2/3 innings as a starter in 2013 and remains under team control through 2017.  With Erik Johnson and Andre Rienzo coming on, the White Sox had the depth to spare Santiago, who still has to figure out command and home run issues.

Eaton, often described as a "dirtbag" type of ballplayer, comes with questions of his own.  The former 19th round draft pick exceeded expectations in the minor leagues, earning a cup of coffee with Arizona in 2012 and becoming a popular Rookie of the Year candidate for 2013.  However, that spring he sprained the UCL in his left elbow, and didn't return to the big leagues until July.  Eaton is 25 with only one healthy month in the Majors to his name.  The White Sox are gambling that he can be the scrappy consistent on-base threat with good defense that he appeared to be one year ago.

The third major pickup was Davidson, who was also acquired from Arizona.  The Sox snagged Davidson straight-up for closer Addison Reed, a 25-year-old with four years of team control remaining.  As MLBTR's Jeff Todd noted in his D'Backs Offseason In Review, Reed is not without his flaws, and the cost of saves in arbitration may cut down his years of team control.  Davidson, 23 this month, hit .280/.350/.481 with 17 home runs in 500 Triple-A plate appearances and picked up 87 late-season plate appearances with the big club.  Ranked 88th among all prospects by ESPN's Keith Law, Davidson "should be an above-average regular at third base given a season or two there to continue to progress."  If that is the eventual outcome, the White Sox did very well in acquiring Davidson for perhaps three years of a good (and increasingly expensive) closer.

The White Sox traded Jesse Crain and Matt Thornton during the season and Reed in the offseason, so the bullpen demanded fresh arms.  Hahn kept the commitments relatively light, exercising Lindstrom's option, and signing Belisario, Downs, and Boggs for a total of $12.1MM.  Belisario and Boggs were non-tendered by their previous teams in December, and the Sox can control them beyond 2014 if it makes sense.

Belisario and Boggs will be projects for renowned pitching coach Don Cooper, as will scrap heap rotation hopeful Felipe Paulino.  The 30-year-old last had significant time in the Majors in 2011, undergoing Tommy John surgery in July 2012 and shoulder surgery in September 2013.  When he was right, Paulino whiffed about a batter per inning and consistently worked at 95 miles per hour, and the White Sox could have the bargain of the offseason if they can get 25+ starts out of him.  The White Sox did at least look into a bigger addition for the rotation, Japanese righty Masahiro Tanaka.  After an exploratory meeting with the pitcher in January, the Sox made an offer that one GM guessed was around $100MM.  It doesn't seem that the Sox came close to signing Tanaka.  As with their crosstown rivals, potentially paying him $108MM over the next four years did not make sense, even if his ability and youth were worth a bid.

In a process that dragged into December, White Sox all-time great Paul Konerko signed on for one more year at a meager $2.5MM.  It was a sentimental signing of a limited player who fits poorly onto the team's roster.  As explained by Jim Margalus of South Side Sox in an excellent reflection on the move, "Even the most ardent Konerko supporters acknowledge that he's significantly compromising the roster, but they're writing it off as a fair sacrifice because of the alleged effect he has on others."  The signing reminds me of the Mariners bringing Ken Griffey Jr. back for the 2010 season, which didn't end well.

On the coaching front, the White Sox added hitting coach Todd Steverson in October, and extended manager Robin Ventura in January to avoid him entering 2014 in lame-duck status.

Questions Remaining

Despite the positive vibes from Rick Hahn's offseason, the White Sox still have a below-average collection of 25-and-under players and a farm system that Baseball America ranks 24th and Keith Law ranks 27th in the game.  The 2014 draft will continue pushing things in the right direction, as the Sox have the third overall pick and a bonus pool near $10MM.  Still, Hahn and company want to get back to contention quickly, and the team needs a good amount of work in the short-term.

The Sox never did address their catching situation this offseason, instead deciding to give the Tyler Flowers/Josh Phegley tandem another shot.  I've heard they had significant interest in free agent Jarrod Saltalamacchia, particularly if he could have been had on a two-year deal, but Salty wound up with the Marlins on a three-year pact.  The Sox picked up Adrian Nieto in the Rule 5 draft, but keeping a Double-A type backstop on the Major League roster all season would be challenging.

The acquisition of Eaton seemingly pushed Alejandro De Aza into a fourth outfielder role, for which he may be best suited anyway.  With a $4.25MM salary, De Aza might have more value to another team, and it's likely the Sox will continue to explore trades.  Then there's 25-year-old Dayan Viciedo, who hit 25 home runs in 2012 but slumped last year.  He's controlled through 2017 and could still be a long-term piece, but I imagine the Sox will be open-minded to trade proposals.

Chicago's middle infield tandem of Gordon Beckham and Alexei Ramirez has come up in trade rumors in the last year.  The disappointing Beckham has two years of team control remaining, while Ramirez is signed through 2015 with a club option for '16.  Ramirez is guaranteed $20.5MM over the next two years, his age 32-33 seasons.  His trade value could be limited by the continued availability of free agent shortstop Stephen Drew.  Both Beckham and Ramirez figure to frequent the pages of MLBTR this summer.

The White Sox have uncertainty at the back of their bullpen after the Reed trade, with Nate Jones the current favorite to close games in 2014.  The franchise hasn't put together a particularly strong bullpen since their 2005 World Championship season.  

Deal of Note

If an MLB team wants to throw a large, unrestricted sum of money at a player in his mid-20s, players coming over from Cuba and Japan are basically the only options.  The White Sox took advantage of the opportunity by signing Abreu.  At $68MM, his contract defied my expectations by a good 25%, but it still leaves room for upside.  Accounting for the cost of a draft pick, the Mets paid a similar amount for Curtis Granderson's age 33-36 seasons, a deal that strikes me as mostly downside risk.  If Abreu can provide the White Sox with 25+ home runs per year, a .340 OBP, and average defense, he'll easily be worth $11.3MM per year compared to continually rising market prices.  And certainly, there's some chance of Abreu's power translating to a few 35-40 home run seasons in the bigs.

It should be noted that given the standard clause allowing Abreu to opt for arbitration once eligible, he might end up being paid more than $68MM over the next six years.  In particular, given good production he'll prefer arbitration over the sixth year of the contract, and possibly even the fifth.  If he's good enough to justify that, it will be worth the extra money for Chicago.

Overview

This is rebuilding, White Sox style.  Like any team trying to improve its young talent base, they've recently taken a few steps back in the name of the greater good.  But unlike the Cubs or Mets, the White Sox aren't on a four or five-year plan.  Hahn has been acquiring Major League ready talent, and while the White Sox are a long shot for 2014, don't count them out for '15.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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Out Of Options Players: NL East

By Tim Dierkes | March 11, 2014 at 2:16pm CDT

The following 40-man roster players have less than five years service time and are out of minor league options.  That means they must clear waivers before being sent to the minors, so the team would be at risk of losing them in attempting to do so.  I've included players on multiyear deals.  This list was compiled through MLBTR's sources.  Next, we'll take a look at the NL East.

Braves: Cory Gearrin, David Carpenter, Ramiro Pena, Jordan Schafer, Anthony Varvaro

Carpenter is a lock for a bullpen spot.  On Friday, Braves manager Fredi Gonzalez said of Varvaro, "Who knows? It's so early.  If we had to break Spring Training today or tomorrow to start the season, I'd count on him. He'd be one of the guys in the bullpen," talking to MLB.com's Spencer Fordin.  Gearrin is among a host of pitchers competing for two other spots in the pen; he told Mark Wiedmer of the Chattanooga Times Free Press in February his shoulder was 100% after being shut down for the final two months of the 2013 season.

Pena will serve as the Braves' primary utility infielder, and Schafer will be the fourth outfielder.

Marlins: Mike Dunn, Garrett Jones, Brian Bogusevic, Brad Hand, Jacob Turner

Beyond Steve Cishek, A.J. Ramos, and Dunn, the Marlins' bullpen picture is "extremely muddled," wrote Clark Spencer of the Miami Herald recently.  As for the rotation, Turner looks like the team's fourth starter, with Hand, Tom Koehler, Kevin Slowey, and Brian Flynn in the mix for the last spot, according to MLB.com's Joe Frisaro.  Spencer noted that Hand could land in the bullpen if he doesn't crack the rotation.

Jones was signed to be the team's primary first baseman.  Bogusevic, acquired from the Cubs for Justin Ruggiano in the offseason, seems to have a leg up to become the team's fourth outfielder.

Mets: Eric Young Jr., Ruben Tejada, Carlos Torres

Young's spot on the team is secure.  Tejada is the starting shortstop, though the Mets seem to be considering upgrades such as Stephen Drew or Nick Franklin.  In the event they acquire someone, the Mets could entertain trading Tejada or just put him in a reserve role.

Torres is a lock for the Mets' bullpen, wrote Adam Rubin of ESPNNewYork.com a week ago.

Nationals: Jose Lobaton, Jerry Blevins, Tyler Clippard, Ross Detwiler

Detwiler will be on the Nationals' pitching staff in some capacity, either as the fifth starter or a member of the bullpen.  Lobaton, Blevins, and Clippard are secure.

Phillies: John Mayberry Jr., Kevin Frandsen, Brad Lincoln

Mayberry and Frandsen were given guaranteed arbitration contracts, noted Matt Gelb of the Philadelphia Inquirer in February, giving them a leg up on bench jobs.  Yesterday, Gelb wrote that Phillies GM Ruben Amaro Jr. "continues to dangle Mayberry this spring in trade talks."  Mayberry is competing with Darin Ruf for a bench spot.  A week ago, Chris Branch of The News Journal took a look at the Phillies' backup infield situation.  Freddy Galvis is a near lock to make the team, with Frandsen battling Ronny Cedeno, Andres Blanco, Cesar Hernandez, and Reid Brignac for the one remaining spot.

Five days ago, Ryan Lawrence of the Philadelphia Daily News termed Lincoln to be "likely a favorite" for a bullpen spot, because of his option situation as well as past big league success.

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Out Of Options Players: AL East

By Tim Dierkes | March 10, 2014 at 10:45am CDT

The following 40-man roster players have less than five years service time and are out of minor league options.  That means they must clear waivers before being sent to the minors, so the team would be at risk of losing them in attempting to do so.  I've included players on multiyear deals.  This list was compiled through MLBTR's sources.  Today, we'll take a look at the AL East.

Blue Jays: Brett Cecil, Jeremy Jeffress, Luis Perez, Esmil Rogers, Sergio Santos, Todd Redmond, Moises Sierra

Back on February 20th, Blue Jays GM Alex Anthopoulos spoke about beginning the season with an eight-man bullpen, as they did in 2013, partially because of the desire not to lose a player, according to MLB.com's Gregor Chisholm.  Cecil, Santos, Casey Janssen, Steve Delabar, and Aaron Loup are the locks.

Perez has already been sent to minor league camp, with the Jays expected to buy some time by putting him on the DL to start the season.  Dustin McGowan is under contract on a multiyear deal, and was not listed above because he has over seven years of big league service.  Still, the Jays will have to find a spot if they wish to retain him, and they probably will.  McGowan, Rogers, Redmond, and Jeffress are part of the fifth starter competition, as outlined by Rosie DiManno of the Toronto Star on Friday.  In theory, all four could be retained: one in the rotation, the other three filling out the bullpen.  That scenario would involve sending Neil Wagner and other solid pitchers to Triple-A, establishing strong depth but perhaps not putting the team's best 13 pitchers on the Opening Day roster.  A trade would be another way to find some breathing room.  The Jays are known to be in the mix for Ervin Santana, who would take a rotation spot and have a ripple effect on the above-named players.

Sierra seems to have a good shot at the team's last bench spot partially because of his lack of minor league options.  It's another case where making the decision to retain the player might be less than ideal, as Sierra would have to be the team's fourth outfielder over the defensively superior Anthony Gose.  Sierra would also platoon at DH with Adam Lind and could pitch in at first base, however.

Orioles: Edgmer Escalona, Chris Davis, Tommy Hunter, Troy Patton, Nolan Reimold, Chris Tillman, Zach Britton, Kelvin De La Cruz, David Lough, Brian Matusz, Steve Pearce, Francisco Peguero, Josh Stinson

The Orioles' list includes a staggering 13 players.  Let's start with the team's rotation.  We can project three members with certainty: Ubaldo Jimenez, Chris Tillman, and Wei-Yin Chen.  At this moment, Miguel Gonzalez and Bud Norris would grab the two remaining spots.  Two of the above-named pitchers, Britton and Matusz, had been among those competing for the fifth starter job before Jimenez was signed.  Further muddying the picture, as explained by Dan Connolly of the Baltimore Sun today, is the pursuit of Ervin Santana.  Additionally, Suk-min Yoon and Johan Santana will come into play later in the season.

Connolly notes that Norris or Gonzalez could move to the bullpen if necessary.  Hunter, Darren O'Day, Ryan Webb, and Matusz seem to be locks for the pen.  A 25-game amphetamine suspension for Patton takes him out of the picture for most of April.  That leaves Escalona, De La Cruz, Britton, and Stinson as out of options pitchers competing for three likely spots, with Steve Johnson, Alfredo Aceves, T.J. McFarland, and Evan Meek also in the mix.  You may recall the Orioles were loose with 40-man roster spots in the offseason, giving them to Escalona, De La Cruz, and Peguero despite scant big league experience.  Retaining them now requires putting them on the 25-man roster.  This situation seems to call for a trade or two.

As the backup center fielder, Lough is assured a spot on the roster.  The Cruz signing takes away at-bats from Reimold, but he still seems likely to make the team.  Peguero or Pearce could take the final roster spot, but only by beating out the other candidates in camp, such as Delmon Young, Xavier Paul, Julio Borbon, Quintin Berry, and Henry Urrutia.  There seems a good chance Peguero or Pearce is exposed to waivers; perhaps both.  Again, a minor trade could make sense in the coming weeks.

Rays: Jake McGee, Cesar Ramos, Matt Joyce, Chris Archer, Josh Lueke, Brandon Guyer

Archer is a lock for the Rays' rotation, while Ramos is battling pitchers such as Erik Bedard, Jake Odorizzi, Nate Karns, and Alex Colome for the fifth starter job until Jeremy Hellickson's projected late May return.  If he doesn't win the job, Ramos would go back to the Rays' bullpen.

McGee is a lock for a bullpen job, as are Grant Balfour, Heath Bell, and Joel Peralta.  Juan Carlos Oviedo has yet to report to camp due to visa issues, but he's expected to take a spot as well.  If Ramos doesn't win the rotation job, that leaves one potential opening for Lueke.  Late last month, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times named Brad Boxberger, Brandon Gomes, and Mark Lowe as other candidates, choosing Lueke as the favorite given his option situation.

Joyce is a lock for a roster spot.  If the Rays go with a traditional fifth outfielder, Guyer could snag the job, as Roger Mooney of The Tampa Tribune explained late last month.  The team could also use Sean Rodriguez or Ben Zobrist as the fifth outfielder. 

Red Sox: Mike Carp, Felix Doubront 

Doubront is penciled into Boston's rotation.  Carp has a bench spot locked down, though he did pop up in recent trade rumors.

Yankees: Francisco Cervelli, Ivan Nova

Nova is a key piece of the Yankees' rotation, while Cervelli is highly likely to break camp as the backup catcher.

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Out Of Options Players: NL West

By Tim Dierkes | March 6, 2014 at 7:54pm CDT

The following 40-man roster players have less than five years service time and are out of minor league options.  That means they must clear waivers before being sent to the minors, so the team would be at risk of losing them in attempting to do so.  I've included players on multiyear deals.  This list was compiled through MLBTR's sources.  Next, we'll take a look at the NL West.

Diamondbacks: Randall Delgado, Matt Tuiasosopo, Marcos Mateo (Rule 5)

With the Diamondbacks beginning their season on March 22nd in Australia against the Dodgers, both teams will deal with a unique set of roster rules, as outlined by MLB.com's Steve Gilbert last month.

Delgado seems slated for Arizona's bullpen, unless perhaps Bronson Arroyo's bulging disk lands him on the DL.  Regarding Tuiasosopo, D'Backs manager Kirk Gibson told Bob McManaman of the Arizona Republic yesterday, "He definitely could be a guy that comes into play for us because of his versatility."  

The D'Backs took Mateo from the Cubs in December's Rule 5 draft, but with Brad Ziegler, J.J. Putz, David Hernandez, Addison Reed, Josh Collmenter, and Joe Thatcher seemingly locked in, there won't be room for Mateo if Delgado joins the pen.  A trade or injury could create a spot.  A trade with the Cubs to retain Mateo's rights wouldn't make much sense, as the D'Backs would still have to pass him through waivers to get him to Triple-A.

Dodgers: Scott Elbert, Javy Guerra, Drew Butera

Elbert is on the 60-day DL currently, so he won't be occupying a roster spot.  Guerra is "up against it" in trying to make a Dodgers bullpen stacked with veterans, as explained by MLB.com's Ken Gurnick last month.  Tim Federowicz is set to back up A.J. Ellis behind the plate, so the Dodgers will probably have to try to pass Butera through waivers.

Giants: David Huff, Joaquin Arias, Gregor Blanco, Yusmeiro Petit, Jean Machi, Ehire Adrianza, Tony Abreu

Yesterday, Matt Kawahara of The Sacramento Bee suggested there are two openings in the Giants' bullpen, assuming Petit makes the group as a long man.  Machi will probably take one, but it could be tough for Huff to make the team in a similar role to Petit.  Heath Hembree, Derek Law, and Jose De Paula are just a few of the other names in the mix.

There won't be room for both Adrianza and Abreu, as explained by Grant Brisbee of McCovey Chronicles.  It seems likely one of them will be traded.

Padres: Cameron Maybin, Eric Stults, Dale Thayer, Yonder Alonso, Rene Rivera, Alex Torres

Unless the Padres decide to carry three catchers, Rivera's shot at making the team depends on Yasmani Grandal's recovery from July knee surgery.

Rockies: Jordan Pacheco, Tyler Chatwood

Pacheco is slated to serve as the backup catcher behind Wilin Rosario, though he had an issue with his shoulder earlier this week.  Michael McKenry is in camp to provide some competition for Pacheco.

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Out Of Options Players: AL Central

By Tim Dierkes | March 6, 2014 at 1:20pm CDT

The following 40-man roster players have less than five years service time and are out of minor league options.  That means they must clear waivers before being sent to the minors, so the team would be at risk of losing them in attempting to do so.  I've included players on multiyear deals.  This list was compiled through MLBTR's sources.  Next, we'll take a look at the AL Central.

Indians: Carlos Carrasco, Josh Outman

Both Carrasco and Outman will be on the Indians' pitching staff, noted Tony Lastoria of FOX Sports Ohio on Monday.  Carrasco is battling a few others for the fifth starter job, but if he doesn't earn it he'll go to the pen.

Royals: Brett Hayes, Jarrod Dyson, Justin Maxwell, Pedro Ciriaco, Francisley Bueno, Carlos Peguero, Danny Valencia

Hayes seems to be the favorite to back up Salvador Perez at catcher, as 24-year-old Francisco Pena can get more seasoning at Triple-A.  Veteran Ramon Hernandez, signed to a minor league deal, is also in the mix for the Royals' backup catcher job.

Dyson is expected to make the team as the center field backup for Lorenzo Cain, wrote Andy McCullough of the Kansas City Star last week.  That leaves Maxwell and Peguero battling for the fifth outfield spot.  Maxwell would seem to have a leg up, having played well upon joining the team in a trade last July.  His right-handed bat might be of more use to the Royals, who avoided arbitration with Maxwell in a January agreement about a week before acquiring Peguero.

The Royals seem to have room for five infielders, and Blair Kerkhoff of the Kansas City Star wrote last week that Valencia is likely to make the team.  That would leave the team without a reserve middle infielder behind Omar Infante and Alcides Escobar.  If the Royals do surprise and find a way to include a reserve middle infielder, it would be a competition of Ciriaco, Christian Colon, and Johnny Giavotella.

Bueno is competing with Donnie Joseph and Everett Teaford to become the Royals' second bullpen lefty behind Tim Collins.

Tigers: Don Kelly, Evan Reed, Jose Iglesias

Kelly is in good standing as a super-utility man.  There appears to be one bullpen job up for grabs, with pitchers such as Luke Putkonen, Justin Miller, Blaine Hardy, and Casey Crosby (if healthy) among those battling with Reed.  The Tigers claimed Reed off waivers from the Marlins about a year ago, and will probably need to put him in their bullpen to start the season to retain him. 

Twins: Trevor Plouffe, Anthony Swarzak, Scott Diamond, Sam Deduno, Vance Worley, Eduardo Escobar, Alex Presley, Chris Parmelee

Plouffe and Swarzak are locks to make the club.  Plouffe figures to man third base on an everyday basis now that Miguel Sano is out for the season, and Swarzak was among the league's best swingmen in 2013.

Diamond, Deduno and Worley are in the mix for the fifth spot in the rotation, and each can make their case based on historical context.  Diamond was the club's best starter in 2012, Deduno has outperformed him since, and Worley was a key component of the Ben Revere trade just one offseason ago before a disastrous 2013 dropped his stock.  The trio also has deal with top prospect Kyle Gibson, who is fully recovered from Tommy John surgery.  Any of the three could end up in the bullpen, but at least one seems likely to go.

Presley has the inside track to make the club either as the Opening Day center fielder — should Aaron Hicks struggle in Spring Training — or as a fourth outfielder.

Escobar's versatility is appealing to the Twins, and his case for the Opening Day roster has been strengthened now that starter Pedro Florimon had his appendix removed two weeks ago.  Florimon is fielding grounders pain-free as of yesterday, per MLB.com's Rhett Bollinger, but his Opening Day status is up in the air.  Former Twin Jason Bartlett is in camp as a non-roster invitee and could serve as competition.

Parmelee is a former first-rounder that hasn't hit since a 2011 September call-up.  The now-26-year-old demolished Triple-A pitching in 2012 but has batted just .228/.302/.364 over his past 543 PAs in the Majors.  He didn't fare much better at Triple-A in 2013.  With Oswaldo Arcia and Josh Willingham at the outfield corners, Joe Mauer at first base and Jason Kubel likely to make the club as a DH/corner outfielder, Parmelee's best hope is to lock down a bench role.  His experience at first base could give him an edge for that spot.

White Sox: Conor Gillaspie, Ronald Belisario, Mitchell Boggs, Maikel Cleto, Donnie Veal, Alejandro De Aza, Dayan Viciedo

The Sox seem to only have one spot open for a third baseman at this time, though that could change if they trade an outfielder like Dayan Viciedo or Alejandro De Aza.  As it stands, Gillaspie is competing for third base with Jeff Keppinger and rookie Matt Davidson.  It would be sensible to start Davidson at Triple-A, and it's possible lingering effects of Keppinger's September shoulder surgery could cause him to start the year on the DL.  

Boggs and Belisario seem locks for the bullpen after signing as free agents, though Belisario has yet to arrive in camp due to visa issues.  A few of the team's relievers are dealing with nagging injuries, but if everyone is healthy and Belisario is in camp as Opening Day approaches, there would seem to be one spot for either Veal (a lefty) or Cleto.  Veal is the favorite over Cleto, who joined the team in a waiver claim just last week.  

Steve Adams contributed to this post.

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Out Of Options Players: NL Central

By Tim Dierkes | March 5, 2014 at 5:44pm CDT

The following 40-man roster players have less than five years service time and are out of minor league options.  That means they must clear waivers before being sent to the minors, so the team would be at risk of losing them in attempting to do so.  I've included players on multiyear deals.  This list was compiled through MLBTR's sources.  Today, we'll take a look at the NL Central.

Brewers: Juan Francisco, Jeff Bianchi

Francisco is competing with Mark Reynolds and Lyle Overbay for the Brewers' first base job.  It's hard to imagine a scenario where all three make the team, wrote Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel last week.  Reynolds and Overbay signed minor league deals, but it seems likely at least one of them will make the team.  When Reynolds signed in January, it was said the Brewers told him he'll almost certainly make the team, so Overbay might have to beat out Francisco, who has the advantage of already being on the 40-man roster.

Back in February, Curt Hogg of Disciples of Uecker dissected the Brewers' reserve infielder situation, explaining that while they may need to carry seven infielders, Bianchi still seems needed as the only one capable of backing up Jean Segura at shortstop.

Cardinals: None

Cubs: George Kottaras, Wesley Wright, Justin Ruggiano, James McDonald, Pedro Strop, Welington Castillo, Jeff Samardzija, Luis Valbuena, Travis Wood, Donnie Murphy, Alberto Cabrera

McDonald is competing with Chris Rusin for the Cubs' fifth starter job, at least until Jake Arrieta's shoulder is deemed ready.  Meanwhile, Cabrera is battling for the final bullpen spot with about a half-dozen others.

Pirates: Chris Stewart, Jeanmar Gomez, Mark Melancon, Travis Snider, Jose Tabata, Bryan Morris, Andy Oliver, Stolmy Pimentel, Pedro Alvarez, Vin Mazzaro

The Bucs' seven primary relievers last year were Jason Grilli, Melancon, Justin Wilson, Tony Watson, Gomez, Mazzaro, and Morris, and indeed, that was their bullpen for the NLDS.  It would be difficult for Oliver to break into that group, but surely the Pirates don't want to lose the hard-throwing Pimentel.  Tim Williams of Pirates Prospects thinks they'll find a place for him.  Some kind of trade makes sense to clear the logjam, barring injury.

Reds: Alfredo Simon

Simon is in good standing as a member of the Reds' pen.

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Offseason In Review: Chicago Cubs

By Tim Dierkes | March 3, 2014 at 2:50pm CDT

The Cubs added flippable veteran arms, assembled a center field platoon, and brought in a new backup catcher.     

Major League Signings

  • Jason Hammel, SP: one year, $6MM.
  • Jose Veras, RP: one year, $4MM.  $5.5MM club option for 2015 with a $150K buyout.
  • Ryan Sweeney, OF: two years, $3.5MM.  $2.5MM club option for 2016 with a $500K buyout.
  • Wesley Wright, RP: one year, $1.425MM.  Under team control for 2015 as an arbitration eligible player.
  • James McDonald, SP: one year, $1MM.  Under team control for 2015 as an arbitration eligible player.
  • Total spend: $15.925MM.

Notable Minor League Signings

  • Emilio Bonifacio, Chris Coghlan, Darnell McDonald, Ryan Roberts, Chris Valaika, Tsuyoshi Wada, Casper Wells, Tommy Hottovy, Jonathan Sanchez, John Baker, Eli Whiteside, Aaron Cunningham, Ryan Kalish, Mitch Maier, Lars Anderson

Trades and Claims

  • Acquired C George Kottaras from Royals for cash.
  • Acquired OF Justin Ruggiano from Marlins for OF Brian Bogusevic.

Notable Losses

  • Dioner Navarro, Brian Bogusevic, Dave Sappelt, Kevin Gregg, Scott Baker, Marcos Mateo, Daniel Bard, Brooks Raley

Needs Addressed

In an alternate universe, the Cubs' 2013-14 offseason could have been very exciting.  They fired manager Dale Sveum in late September, and for about a week there was talk of a big-money run at Joe Girardi, who would have marked a return to the team's "name" managers.  Instead, Girardi re-upped with the Yankees.  The Cubs interviewed A.J. Hinch, Manny Acta, Dave Martinez, Eric Wedge, and Brad Ausmus for their managerial position but ended up hiring someone less famous than any of them in former big league infielder Rick Renteria.  Renteria has no MLB managing experience, but did manage eight seasons in the Marlins' and Padres' farm systems before becoming a Padres bench coach.  The Cubs would probably admit they missed the mark on Sveum, making Renteria the fourth Cubs manager in the last five years.  He signed a three-year deal with two options, and hopefully the Cubs will be satisfied with his handling of young players and find managerial stability.

Having traded Matt Garza and Scott Feldman during the 2013 season, the Cubs were in need of veteran rotation depth for 2014.  They decided not to revisit the Scott Baker idea, letting him walk as a free agent.  Though last summer's Feldman trade netted a rotation candidate in the form of Arrieta, he encountered shoulder tightness in the offseason.

Cubs president Theo Epstein and GM Jed Hoyer have been on the job for three offseasons now, and Hammel is their fourth potential sign-and-flip starting pitcher.  The key return in the Paul Maholm deal, Arodys Vizcaino, is still trying to come back from the Tommy John procedure he had two full years ago.  He could still become an impact reliever, according to Baseball America, which ranked him tenth among Cubs prospects.  Feldman brought Arrieta and reliever Pedro Strop from the Orioles last summer, as well as international bonus pool slots 3 and 4.  The Cubs ultimately went nearly 50% over their international bonus pool, so the slots acquired from Baltimore can be considered nothing more than $58K in overage tax savings.

USATSI_7518696

Having gotten nothing in return for Baker, the Cubs spent close than $12MM in salary on the three flipped starters.  Vizcaino, Arrieta, and Strop are all under team control through 2017, and if the Cubs walk away with multiple seasons of solid cheap relief work, the whole thing was worthwhile, if not spectacular.

When McDonald posted a 3.56 ERA in his first 331 innings with the Pirates, it looked as though they had found something in their 2010 trade with the Dodgers.  The wheels fell off in July 2012, however, and he posted a 6.28 ERA in 104 2/3 frames thereafter, plus time spent in the minors on 2013.  A shoulder injury surfaced in May last year, and by September, McDonald was a free agent.  There's no telling whether the Cubs can get him back to usefulness, but they didn't risk much to try.

The Cubs stumbled into a reunion with Kevin Gregg last year, and although they didn't manage to flip the closer in a trade, he did provide a few months of stability at the back end of their bullpen.  Veras, 33, was signed in December 2012 to be the Astros' closer and was quite good at the job in 43 innings.  The Astros flipped Veras to the Tigers for a pair of far-off prospects in Danry Vasquez and David Paulino, and it stands to reason the Cubs will consider doing the same with Veras if he succeeds in the first half.  Veras apparently wasn't the Cubs' first or only choice in right-handed relief this offseason, as reports linked them to Edward Mujica, John Axford, Joba Chamberlain, and Jesse Crain. 

The Cubs signed Wesley Wright to an affordable deal to bolster their left-handed relief.  In a world where Boone Logan, Javier Lopez, and J.P. Howell garner eight-figure commitments and even a 38-year-old Scott Downs costs $4MM, the $1.425MM commitment to Wright has a chance to return profit.  The Cubs also took some long shots in this area, signing Jonathan Sanchez, Tsuyoshi Wada, and Tommy Hottovy to minor league deals.

Catcher Dioner Navarro wound up signing a two-year, $8MM free agent deal with Toronto on the strength of 266 strong plate appearances with the 2013 Cubs.  With Welington Castillo's solid play, the Cubs had no need to pony up to retain Navarro, who they had signed as a backup for $1.75MM.  I am curious as to whether the Cubs received any decent offers on Navarro during the summer, however.  Regardless, they acquired three reasonable options to back up Castillo this year in Kottaras, Baker, and Whiteside, the last two on minor league deals.  The Cubs reportedly had looked into a more established backup in Kurt Suzuki.  However, the walk-happy Kottaras, a former Epstein acquisition for the Red Sox, will caddy for Castillo to start the season.  

Junior Lake, 24 later this month, hit a respectable .284/.332/.428 in 254 plate appearances for the Cubs last year while learning to play left field.  While the Cubs might be happy to see Lake establish himself as a second-division regular, their entire current outfield seems comprised of placeholders for Albert Almora, Jorge Soler, and perhaps Kris Bryant if he moves off third base.  Schierholtz endured some trade talk but is back as the Cubs' right fielder against right-handed pitching for his walk year.  Ryan Sweeney could take a similar platoon role as the team's primary center fielder, though in last year's limited sample the left-handed hitter handled same-side pitching well.  Kudos to the Cubs for re-signing Sweeney for just $3.5MM plus a club option in October, before the market for good fourth outfielder types was established at two years and $10-12MM by Rajai Davis, David DeJesus, Nate McLouth, and David Murphy.

The Cubs reached out to Chris Young early in the offseason, but he ended up signing a one-year, $7.25MM deal with the Mets.  Plan B for a right-handed hitting outfielder in Young's mold appears to have been Justin Ruggiano, who Hoyer described as "a better fit for our roster" than Bogusevic.  Ruggiano, a power/speed guy, has hit .270/.347/.544 in 305 plate appearances against southpaws over the last three years and will likely spell Schierholtz and Sweeney.

Questions Remaining

The Cubs' biggest question mark is the future of 29-year-old righty Jeff Samardzija, their nominal ace.  With two years of team control remaining, the Cubs have tried to extend him but have found a gap between the valuations of each side.  Rather than further reset the extension market and give Samardzija a $100MM deal, the Cubs explored trades this offseason.  The Diamondbacks, Nationals, Blue Jays, Orioles, Yankees, and Braves were among the reported suitors, but by the Winter Meetings the trade barometer had gone from likely to unlikely.  On December 11th, Bob Elliott of the Toronto Sun wrote that the Cubs wanted Aaron Sanchez, Marcus Stroman, and a third player from the Blue Jays.  Prospect gurus suggest Sanchez is around the 30th best prospect in the game, and Stroman around the 60th.  

Though teams are rightfully veering well away from ERA in decision-making, Samardzija's marks of 4.34 last year and 5.47 in the season's final three months certainly don't help his trade value.  Though a third of Samardzija's team control will have evaporated by the trade deadline and the pitcher finds an extension with a new team unlikely, the Cubs are gambling he can raise his stock with a big first half in 2014 (barring a surprise trade this month).

The Cubs wound up adding Hammel and McDonald, though they were thinking much bigger with a pursuit of the offseason's top prize, Masahiro Tanaka.  The Japanese ace signed a seven-year, $155MM deal with the Yankees with an opt-out clause after the fourth year, and required a $20MM release fee as well.  If speculation as to the Cubs' six-year, $120MM offer with no opt-out clause is accurate, then the Yankees were offering nearly 11% more in AAV, an extra year, and the extremely valuable opt-out.  That suggests the Cubs were not close on Tanaka.  Of the ten MLB contracts signed with true opt-out clauses, only Tanaka's allows for the player to join a new team before age 30.  The Cubs will compete in 2015 if we're being optimistic.  Burning his first year on a rebuilding season could be acceptable as part of a six-year deal, but potentially paying Tanaka $108MM for the next four years didn't work for this team.  The Cubs had also been an early offseason speculative suitor for David Price, whose two-year window of control and huge prospect cost also fit poorly for the Cubs unless they had reason to expect a below-market extension.

The Cubs' bid for Tanaka and speculative connection to Price stems from the question of who their future mound ace will be when all of their hitting prospects reach the Majors, especially if Samardzija is not extended or does not take the next step.  Slender but well-regarded prospect C.J. Edwards could become that ace, and maybe the Cubs will take a close-to-the-Majors pitcher with their fourth overall pick in the June draft.  Though Bryant projects as a future All-Star, perhaps Jonathan Gray would have been a better pick for the Cubs with their #2 overall choice in the last draft.  There's a good chance the Cubs' next ace pitcher will have to come from outside the organization.

The Cubs also face questions at every infield position.  First baseman Anthony Rizzo is signed through 2019, but hasn't hit lefties in his big league career and batted .217/.325/.374 from June onward last season. 27-year-old power righty Andrew Cashner, who the Cubs sent to the Padres for Rizzo, has developed into a more valuable pitcher than anyone in the Cubs' current rotation.  Second baseman Darwin Barney didn't hit enough in 2013 to justify regular playing time, and figures to be challenged by prospects this year.  Shortstop Starlin Castro, signed through 2019, was surprisingly below replacement level last season.  A lawsuit with a baseball school in the Dominican may have affected his play, but he'll be pushed by top prospect Javier Baez in 2014.  The Cubs' ragtag group of third basemen showed surprising pop last year, and they have good organizational depth beyond stopgap veterans Luis Valbuena and Donnie Murphy.

Deal of Note

The Cubs made a run at Roberto Hernandez during the Winter Meetings, but wound up reaching an agreement with Hammel in late January.  The 31-year-old Hammel had surprised with a strong partial season in 2012 with the Orioles, bumping his average fastball velocity to almost 94 miles per hour and posting career-best strikeout and groundball rates.  Hammel earned the Orioles' Opening Day nod but came back to Earth in 2013, posting a 4.97 ERA and hitting the DL with inflammation around the ulnar nerve in his elbow.  If both Hammel and Samardzija are dealt this summer, it will mark the third consecutive season of the Cubs trading 40% of their rotation.

Overview

After a new front office came in and on punted on their first two seasons, the Cubs have assembled the fourth-best farm system in baseball, according to ESPN's Keith Law as well as Baseball America.  Ideally, 2014 will be the team's final consolidation year before contending.  If you think about it, three concession seasons in a market of this size is remarkable, the Mets notwithstanding.  After this year, Epstein will have only two years left on his contract and even the Cubs' fanbase will start getting antsy.

The Cubs certainly tried to make some big statements this offseason.  Imagine how the conversation would have changed had they hired Girardi, extended Samardzija, and signed Tanaka.  The big moves didn't materialize, leaving Epstein and company with money kept in reserve for the first time.  In the bigger picture, the Cubs seem to be holding off on embracing their status as a large market team until their $500MM Wrigley Field renovation project begins, potentially after this season if the dispute with rooftop owners can be resolved.  Brighter times are ahead, but until then the world's most patient fanbase continues to be tested.  

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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The Draft Pick Each Team Would Have To Forfeit

By Tim Dierkes | February 25, 2014 at 10:35am CDT

The calendar will turn to March soon, but our #6, #14, and #28-ranked free agents remain unsigned.  The primary factor in the delay for Ervin Santana, Stephen Drew, and Kendrys Morales is that signing any one of them requires the new team to forfeit its highest unprotected draft pick and its associated bonus pool money, because these players were among 13 to turn down a one-year, $14.1MM qualifying offer in November.  Earlier draft picks are more valuable, of course, so let's take a look at the pick each team would have to forfeit to sign one of these three free agents.  The 2013 slot value for each pick is also provided; those numbers will increase for 2014.  2014 draft order information comes courtesy of River Ave. Blues.

Draftpick

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

As many have pointed out, the current system provides a major incentive for teams to sign multiple compensation free agents.  Now that the Orioles have surrendered their #17 pick for Ubaldo Jimenez and their #52 pick for Nelson Cruz, they could sign Santana, Drew, or Morales with the smallest draft pick cost of any team.  In theory, teams at the bottom of this chart should be willing to offer at least several million more than a team near the top, assuming a desire and need for one of the three free agents.  It's why Drew makes so much sense for the Mets.

These three free agents have a good reason not to sign a one-year deal right now, with the season less than a month away, even though Cruz did so recently.  As Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports recently pointed out, a player must be with his team for the entire season to receive a qualifying offer.  Santana could sign a one-year worth $15MM or so and make it official on March 22nd, and not have to worry about being saddled with another qualifying offer after 2014.  On the other hand, losing the ability to make a qualifying offer lowers his value to the signing team, to some degree.

If any of the three compensation free agents is willing to wait until June 5th to sign, the draft pick compensation issue goes away and the players can be signed without forfeiture of a pick.  The old teams, the Royals, Red Sox, and Mariners, would not gain a supplemental round pick in that scenario.  If those teams perceive that threat to be real, it provides an incentive for them to explore deals to bring back Santana, Drew, and Morales, respectively.

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