Free Agent Profile: Pablo Sandoval
Pablo Sandoval has a case as the best free agent hitter this offseason, and demand is strong. The third baseman reached free agency at age 28, putting an exclamation point on his year with another huge postseason.
Strengths/Pros
Sandoval is a career .294 hitter who has hit .315 or better in multiple full seasons. Known for his incredible hand-eye coordination, he makes contact about 87% of the time. His consistency in this area has been uncanny, as he’s never dipped below 86.5% or risen above 86.9% in any of his six full seasons. What’s more, Sandoval has no clear weakness, as Jeff Sullivan of FanGraphs explained. He can hit pitches in and out of the strike zone, he can hit all types of pitches, and he can hit with two strikes. In 2008, Sandoval told Lee Jenkins of Sports Illustrated, “I like every pitch, no matter where it is.”
Sandoval’s weighted runs created plus (wRC+) of 114 from 2013-14 ranked ninth among third basemen. This stat is park and league-adjusted, giving Sandoval some credit for playing in a pitchers’ park.
Sandoval’s postseason heroics in 2012 and 2014 are legendary. He won the World Series MVP in 2012, hitting .500 with three home runs as part of an excellent postseason overall. This year, he raked to the tune of .366/.423/.465 in the postseason. Just 28 years old, Sandoval has already collected three rings with the Giants.
Though he’s a big guy, Sandoval plays a solid third base. His ultimate zone rating and defensive runs saved marks were both above average this year.
We’ve mentioned that Sandoval is just 28 years old. Such youth is a rarity for a free agent, and it’s a function of Sandoval reaching the Majors at age 21 and not signing an extension that gave up free agent years. The unique cases of Cuban free agents aside, Sandoval is the youngest prominent free agent hitter along with Colby Rasmus, who was born on the same day.
Weaknesses/Cons
For all his postseason success, Sandoval’s regular season was his worst with the bat since 2010. His 6.1% walk rate was a career-worst for a full season, and it resulted in an unspectacular .324 on-base percentage. And while Sandoval flashed 25 home run pop early in his career, he’s averaged about 15 per 600 plate appearances over the last three seasons. He’s slugged just .416 over the last two campaigns, 67th among qualified hitters. This year in the regular season, Sandoval was roughly the hitter Trevor Plouffe, Daniel Murphy, or Brett Gardner was. Those are above average hitters, but not middle of the order cornerstones.
Sandoval’s baserunning has always been a detriment, bringing his overall value down. He has totaled 7.9 wins above replacement over the last three seasons, 81st in baseball among position players. He’s in a virtual tie with guys like Jon Jay and Jed Lowrie, who might be described as useful but are certainly not considered stars or among the best as their respective positions. By measure of WAR, Sandoval ranked 14th among third basemen this year, seven spots below fellow free agent third baseman Chase Headley.
Sandoval is listed at 5-foot-11 and 245 pounds, making him one of the game’s heaviest regular position players. He’s been at least 30 pounds heavier than that at different points. Using pounds per inch, Daniel Meyer of Beyond the Box Score noted, “Deep into the history of the past 143 years of recorded baseball history no player of Sandoval’s proportions has played more than a season’s worth of games at third base,” making Sandoval a trailblazer in what he’s done already. His weight raises questions about how well he’ll age, his future durability, and when he might have to move off the hot corner. Talk about Sandoval’s weight and conditioning have followed him throughout his career, as chronicled by Jorge L. Ortiz of USA Today in February this year.
Since he received and turned down a one-year, $15.3MM qualifying offer from the Giants, signing Sandoval will require draft pick forfeiture.
Personal
Sandoval was born in Puerto Cabello, Venezuela. He was born left-handed but learned to throw with his right hand at the age of nine so he could play catcher. Switch-hitting followed his switch-throwing a few years later. The Giants signed him in 2003 at age 16, as a catch-and-throw specialist behind the plate.
Sandoval is an exuberant player who usually has a smile on his face and is beloved by fans. He is nicknamed Kung Fu Panda, a name bestowed on him by teammate Barry Zito in 2008 when Sandoval scored a run by jumping over the catcher’s tag. The nickname took off, with thousands of Giants fans making Panda gear ubiquitous.
Sandoval has two daughters and resides in Venezuela in the offseason.
Market
So far in free agency, Sandoval has been pursued heavily by the Giants and is in Boston today for a meeting with the Red Sox. The Padres, Blue Jays, and White Sox have also been connected, and agent Gustavo Vasquez met with most or all of the teams at last week’s GM Meetings. Just to expand the field as far as possible, teams such as the Yankees, Tigers, Astros, Angels, and Marlins don’t have third base entirely locked down even if they haven’t been linked to Sandoval recently. Sandoval has been a member of the Giants for his entire career, and after past championships the Giants retained their players. Prior to the season, the Giants reportedly tried to start the conversation with a three-year, $40MM offer with Sandoval seeking five years and $100MM+.
With Aramis Ramirez having re-signed with the Brewers, Sandoval’s third base competition consists of Headley and perhaps Hanley Ramirez. Headley holds the advantage of not being eligible for a qualifying offer. Plus, his defense-oriented profile won’t cost nearly as much. The trade market at third base is light, with perhaps Luis Valbuena, David Freese, Casey McGehee, Pedro Alvarez, and Plouffe in the mix.
Expected Contract
Perhaps because of the postseason, his age, or the promise Sandoval showed in years like 2009, this is a player who is valued by the market well beyond his regular season statistics.
Vasquez has come right out and said his client is focused on the length of his deal and that six years would be reasonable given his age (Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle reporting). Most agents don’t speak about that publicly, and most also seek one year more than they might privately expect the player to receive. I think in this case, Vasquez really does expect six years, and Sandoval will receive such an offer in the end. It is difficult to picture seven years unless that seventh year comes very cheaply.
Expectations seem to be for an average annual value of $18-20MM for Sandoval. I’m going with a six-year, $114MM deal.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
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Yasmany Tomas Rumors: Tuesday
Cuban slugger Yasmany Tomas will celebrate his 24th birthday on Friday, and it will surely be a happy one given the lucrative contract on the horizon. Yesterday, agent Jay Alou explained the Phillies’ standing in the Tomas derby, telling reporters including Jim Salisbury of CSNPhilly.com, “There are several teams that I could say are frontrunners, but yes (the Phillies are one of them).” Surprisingly, the Phillies have yet to make a formal offer, but Alou says, “It will all get going soon.”
Today’s Tomas rumors…
- Tomas is drawing interest from the Orioles, tweets Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports. Rosenthal also notes on Twitter that the chase for Tomas is still heating up, with two teams set to visit him in the Dominican next week and others still weighing pursuit.
Earlier Updates
- The Royals have entered the Tomas sweepstakes, reports Joel Sherman of the New York Post. The Royals don’t feel that Tomas has the same type of advanced hitting skills that countryman Jose Abreu brought to the division-rival White Sox, but they have a need for a right fielder and feel his defense is at least adequate. The Royals like Melky Cabrera as well but Tomas would allow them to preserve their first-round pick, whereas Cabrera received and rejected a qualifying offer from Toronto.
- The Phillies, Padres and Giants have each seen Tomas three times, reports Jon Heyman of CBS Sports. He also reports that agent Jay Alou rejected an eight-year offer (though he doesn’t specify the value), preferring a five to seven year term to get Tomas onto the open market again around his age-30 season. The Mariners also like Tomas but aren’t expected to outbid other clubs, according to Heyman.
- Jeff Wilson of the Fort Worth Star-Telegram reports that the Rangers aren’t likely to sign Tomas. Starting pitching is said to be the team’s top priority, and sources tell Wilson that the Rangers have informed Alou that their resources will be dedicated to that goal.
- How about the $100MM figure that has been bandied about for Tomas? “I don’t know where that came from, but he’d be happy and I’d be happy,” says Alou. In my September profile of Tomas, I posited a seven-year, $105MM contract. More recently, Jon Heyman of CBS Sports went with eight years and $100MM, an agent who spoke to Heyman said seven years and $93MM, and a GM said eight years, $100MM. Eight years is an interesting call, because that would mean Tomas would be giving up a potential valuable free agent season. Seven would be more aligned with typical MLB service time for a top prospect, who can put in just shy of seven years before reaching free agency if called up a few weeks into the season.
- Yesterday, Jorge Arangure Jr. had an excellent profile of Tomas for Vice Sports. In it, Arangure said Tomas will likely choose a team from the Phillies, Yankees, Red Sox, Mariners, and Padres, who have all scouted the player several times. Tomas’ Dominican-based trainer Raul Javier, asked when the player would sign, replied, “Very soon.”
David Robertson Rumors: Tuesday
The Yankees made closer David Robertson the one-year, $15.3MM qualifying offer, which he officially declined yesterday. GM Brian Cashman told reporters, “I thought it was 50-50 when we made the offer. We were comfortable obviously if he accepted it and we wanted to be protected if he didn’t. To be honest, I had no idea what the position would be.” More on the free agent market’s top reliever…
- The Tigers are out of the running for Robertson, reports Joel Sherman of the New York Post. GM Dave Dombrowski told Sherman that part of the reason he exercised Joakim Soria’s $7MM club option was to keep out of the race for late-inning relief on the free agent market. Detroit also considers Bruce Rondon a wild card that could make an impact on their bullpen next season.
Earlier Updates
- Robertson has attracted interest from at least a half-dozen teams, a source tells Mark Feinsand of the New York Daily News. He says among those is at least one with a protected draft pick, meaning the Diamondbacks, Rockies, Rangers, Astros, Twins, Red Sox, White Sox, Cubs, Phillies, or Reds. Of those, the Rockies, Astros, White Sox, and Cubs are known to be seeking relief help.
- Cashman mentioned last night that he intends to meet with Robertson’s agent Scott Leventhal this week in Arizona. The two sides have yet to discuss a multiyear deal.
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Reactions To Mets’ Cuddyer Signing
The Mets jumped the free agent market yesterday in a surprising way, signing right fielder/first baseman Michael Cuddyer to a two-year, $21MM deal that requires the forfeiture of their #15 overall pick in the 2015 draft. As FanGraphs’ Jeff Sullivan wrote, it was a surprising series of events: Cuddyer wasn’t expected to receive a qualifying offer, then he was expected to accept it once the Rockies made it, and the Mets weren’t expected to be interested in him after the draft pick cost was attached. More on the signing:
- Cuddyer said on a conference call with Mets beat writers today that he would have accepted the Rockies’ qualifying offer had he not been signed by the Mets.
- Sullivan suggests a conservative estimate values the Mets’ lost pick around $10-15MM, and feels the team is “slightly overpaying” overall for Cuddyer. Personally, I think the Mets valued the pick lower than $10-15MM, as that estimate seems to assume the Mets’ pick would have become one of the game’s 100 best prospects. If we instead apply Dave Cameron’s 3x valuation of a draft’s slot value, we might get $7.5MM in value, which MLBTR’s Jeff Todd suggested to me yesterday. Jeff further noted the Mets might have reasons to devalue that estimate. I also think we were low in estimating Cuddyer’s QO-free market value at two years and $22MM back in mid-October, and his real market value could easily have been two years and $28MM or three years and $36MM. Clearly the Mets valued the lost pick into their offer one way or another.
- Andy Martino of the New York Daily News doesn’t even want to hear an argument that the Mets should not have sacrificed the pick for Cuddyer, saying, “Nothing in baseball is more romanticized, fetishized and overvalued than draft picks and prospects.” Martino feels the Cuddyer signing signaled the right mindset for the Mets.
- The Mets initially balked at giving up the pick to sign Cuddyer, writes Marc Carig of Newsday, but GM Sandy Alderson changed his mind. According to assistant GM John Ricco, “I think this is a message that we’re going to be aggressive. And right out of the box, we had a guy we liked and we went out and got him.” The Mets had no interest in offering multiple years to other free agent candidates, says Carig.
- New Rockies GM Jeff Bridich comes out smelling like roses, snagging a supplemental draft pick most didn’t expect he could get. Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post has quotes from Bridich, who said, “The way that we looked at it was that if we had Cuddy come back on a one-year deal with us, and had he just purely accepted the offer, that was fine. We tried to engage on multiyear talks from the get-go. Even before the (qualifying) offer was made. When the qualifying offer was made, we said, ‘OK, if there is anything to talk about a multiyear offer, let us know. We are ready to engage.’ That doesn’t guarantee it would happen, but we were ready.” It seems Bridich did a better job of reading Cuddyer’s market than the media did.
- Joel Sherman of the New York Post likes the signing for the Mets in a 55-45 way. He explains, “He was the outfielder with flaws the Mets knew they could get and there is an upside that makes this a huge gamble probably worth taking. The Mets did not have to touch their pitching surplus to land Cuddyer. They got this done on Nov. 10. They have their stockpile and all winter to address shortstop.”
- Kristie Ackert of the New York Daily News has quotes from Ricco regarding Cuddyer’s recent spotty health record. Said Ricco, “He took a physical today. We’ve looked at all the injuries and there was nothing there that we’re too concerned about. And the age is the age. Certainly there’s risk associated with any signing. And we believe in the player and think he’s going to be a real good fit for us.”
AL West Notes: Kendrick, Astros, Engel Beltre
The Angels remain open to trading second baseman Howie Kendrick, tweets Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports. Kendrick, 31, is eligible for free agency after the season. More from the AL West…
- The Astros’ 2015 payroll still projects to be in the $70MM range, explains Evan Drellich of the Houston Chronicle. The team has about $17.7MM committed for 2015 for four players, plus around $21MM for their seven essential arbitration eligible players, a few of whom could be traded. It’s easy to see that this team has some money to spend.
- Drellich says “there’s little expectation the Astros would add a player who received a qualifying offer,” but admits that the team will be more open to giving up a draft pick this winter. “We have two protected picks. So a qualifying offer is not necessarily an impediment to how we would behave compared to a team that had a pick that was their only pick, and that was No. 13 or 15 or something like that. So we have that advantage,” said GM Jeff Luhnow. The Astros would give up the competitive balance round pick they acquired from the Marlins in the summer if they sign one of the 11 qualified free agents. The Astros were linked to Hanley Ramirez earlier today.
- Outfielder Engel Beltre has elected free agency after refusing an outright assignment to Triple-A from the Rangers, writes Calvin Watkins of ESPNDallas.com. GM Jon Daniels said, “He’s exploring other options. We are as well. We haven’t closed the door. We haven’t made him an offer at this point.” Beltre, who missed the entire 2014 season with a fractured tibia, was a key piece of the Rangers’ return from the Red Sox for Eric Gagne at the 2007 trade deadline.
Mets Inquired On Jimmy Rollins
A Mets trade for Rockies shortstop Troy Tulowitzki is “not happening,” a source tells Adam Rubin of ESPNNewYork.com. Rubin says such a move is not on the Mets’ radar due to the $120MM owed to Tulo through 2020, as well as the prospect cost of “two or three blue-chippers.” More from Rubin:
- The Mets spoke with the Phillies about acquiring Jimmy Rollins, writes Rubin. Rubin adds, “The pursuit since has been dismissed because Rollins does not want to leave Philadelphia.”
- The Mets are unenthusiastic about the available free agent shortstops, and plan to go the trade route to fill the position. The Diamondbacks, Mariners, White Sox, and Cubs are viewed as viable trade partners. Andy Martino of the New York Daily News says “it has been difficult, if not impossible” for the Mets and Cubs to agree on the value of Starlin Castro. Meanwhile, Martino says Alexei Ramirez of the White Sox only emerged as a possibility within the past week. Martino’s early read has the White Sox seeking the Mets’ top young starters and the Mets pitching their veterans.
- If the Mets are unable to acquire a shortstop, or go with a defense-first type like Didi Gregorius, they are likely to retain second baseman Daniel Murphy, writes Rubin. If they get a shortstop who can hit, Murphy is more likely to be dealt if the Mets get a sufficient offer. Rubin expects the Mets to wait on Murphy until after resolving their shortstop situation.
- The Mets seek a veteran lefty reliever to complement Josh Edgin in their bullpen. They are also seeking a backup infielder, unless Wilmer Flores is bumped to that role.
- The Mets will also consider trading Dillon Gee, Jonathon Niese, or Bartolo Colon.
Epstein On Offseason, Lester, Bullpen
“It’s probably the first time agents can come into our suites without having to look both ways to make sure no one sees them coming in,” joked Cubs president Theo Epstein in talking to reporters last night at the GM Meetings in Phoenix. He added, “We’re no longer the runt of the litter, I guess.” More on the Cubs as they embark on what seems likely to be their most active offseason since 2006-07…
- Epstein further explained, “We have a couple of the most important currencies in the game: some payroll flexibility and some good young players. So it opens up a world of possibilities and makes it more fun.” The Cubs are known for the game’s best stash of position player prospects, and their commitments for 2015 will likely come in not much over $50MM.
- Epstein commented on his previous relationship in Boston with free agent lefty Jon Lester, saying, “Free agents in general, they’re going to make good decisions for themselves and for their family and try to find a place where they can win and be comfortable and find a contract that works for them. To the extent that relationships help reassure players about those different factors, then (our relationship is) relevant. It establishes a comfort and trust. But beyond that…he’s going to have his pick.”
- Paul Sullivan of the Chicago Tribune also has Epstein’s thoughts on adding a reliever to put together a shutdown bullpen, as was on display in this year’s World Series. As Sullivan writes, the bullpen doesn’t seem to be a priority for the Cubs, and Epstein is careful to draw conclusions based on the Fall Classic.
- In his talk with reporters yesterday, Epstein made multiple mentions of “the next 15 months,” suggesting he’s got an eye on the 2015-16 free agent class as well.
Sherman On Burnett, Josh Johnson, Johan Santana
The latest from Joel Sherman of the New York Post…
- Sherman notes that in the past, A.J. Burnett signed close to his Maryland home because his wife hated flying. However, agent Darek Braunecker says this is no longer a restriction. Sherman mentions previous interest from the Angels and Rangers. Burnett is wise to expand his market, since teams like the Orioles, Mets, and Nationals are not generally looking to add starting pitching.
- The Padres are working to re-sign Josh Johnson. They already declined a $4MM option on the righty, who had Tommy John surgery in late April. No deal is close for Johnson, tweets Chris Cotillo of MLB Daily Dish.
- The Dodgers have let teams know they prefer to trade Andre Ethier and/or Carl Crawford and will listen on Matt Kemp. The Dodgers are willing to kick in cash or take a bad contract back, and will pay more down for a better return in players. This is one of the few ways teams can still use financial clout to purchase young talent, in my opinion. Sherman says the Dodgers feel their current outfield situation is untenable, which fits with Ken Rosenthal’s report from Sunday. In a poll of 28 baseball industry insiders by ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick, Ethier was considered the most likely to be traded.
- The Dodgers are also looking to add to their rotation and bullpen and are among the more interested suitors for Russell Martin. The Dodgers were one of four teams recently revealed to have a meeting in place with Martin’s agent.
- Johan Santana is “hellbent on coming back,” agent Chris Leible tells Sherman. Santana, 36 in March, was close to returning to the Majors with the Orioles last summer after April 2013 shoulder surgery, but he ruptured his Achilles tendon in June. Santana is currently jogging and playing catch.