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AL Notes: Rays, Royals, Rangers

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The Rays have one clear priority for the offseason, writes MLB Insider Jim Bowden (via Twitter). They’ve let the other 29 teams know: they need catchers. That’s been the case for the Rays most offseasons. Tampa has long been unable to find a long-term solution at the catching position. Rays catchers (Mike Zunino, Michael Perez, and Kevan Smith) finished 25th in the Majors by bWAR in 2020 with -0.3 bWAR. None of the three are currently employed by the Rays, as Perez was selected off waivers by the Pirates, and Zunino and Smith are free agents. Ronaldo Hernandez currently sits atop their depth chart, and while the Rays have high hopes for the slugging 23-year-old, he has yet to appear above High-A. The free agent market isn’t likely to offer a ton of options for the Rays’ price range. Speculatively speaking, if they do go the free agency route, a reunion with Zunino might make the most sense. Other options they could consider include Matt Wieters, Tyler Flowers, Sandy Leon, Robinson Chirinos, and Alex Avila.

  • Bowden (via Twitter) also enumerates the Royals plan for the winter: acquire a starting pitcher, middle-of-the-order bat, and centerfielder. They also want to improve their overall on-base percentage, notes Bowden. The Royals tied with the Mariners for 25th in the Majors with a .309 OBP. A team 7.8 BB% also tied for 25th in the Majors. To this point, Hunter Dozier (.344 OBP) and Salvador Perez (.353 OBP) were the only Kansas City regulars with an on-base percentage over .330. Outfield prospect Khalil Lee might provide an internal solution. The 22-year-old walked at a rate of 11.9% in Double-A in 2019, and the oganization holds him in high regard.
  • The Rangers will give Sherten Apostel a look at first base in the lead-up to the season, per Jeff Wilson of the Fort Worth Star-Telegram. Apostel has come up as a third baseman, though at 6’4″, 235 lbs, there’s at least a question of whether he’d fare better defensively at first. Still, the Rangers believe he can stick at third, per Wilson. The issue is more that Isiah Kiner-Falefa is fresh off a Gold-Glove-winning season, and in the long-term, top prospect Josh Jung profiles for the hot corner. In the short term, Ronald Guzman could be unseated at first after slashing just .230/.308/.417 over 809 plate appearances the past three seasons. His 0.9 bWAR per 650 plate appearances doesn’t scream stability at first. Apostel, 22 in March, got a cup-of-coffee in 2020, though he’s likely to start the year in Triple-A. If he starts hot, however, the Rangers could make room for him at first.

MLBTR Poll: What Should The Rangers Do With Lance Lynn?

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Thus far, there’s been little movement on the free agent market. The couple of market-setting moves we have seen, however, involved starting pitchers: namely, Marcus Stroman and Kevin Gausman accepting $18.9MM qualifying offers, Drew Smyly taking a one-year, $11MM offer from the Braves, and Robbie Ray returning to the Blue Jays on a one-year, $8MM deal. The Smyly and Ray deals say more than either Stroman or Gausman about the current market price for starting pitchers, as those qualifying offers come with a whole set of extenuating circumstances on both sides of the aisle. Regardless, we’re in the very early stages of the offseason and the first few deals don’t always set the pace.

In light of what we’ve seen so far, Lance Lynn’s one-year, $9.3MM deal looks like a more attractive trade piece now than it was even a week ago. But that doesn’t always help grease the wheels. The difficulty in trading a player on a great contract like Lynn is that for the acquiring team, Lynn’s value drops precipitously as the prospect value it takes to acquire him rises. Of course, the Rangers aren’t incentivized to move him without significant and/or talented youth coming back. To oversimplify, trading is hard.

Following a breakout 7.5 bWAR season in 2019, Lynn again posted solid production with a 3.32 ERA across 13 starts totaling a league-leading 84 innings in 2020. Admittedly, Lynn lost about a half mph off his four-seamer, and a career-high 28.1 K% in 2019 fell to 25.9 K% in 2020. That amounts to a difference of roughly 20 strikeouts over a full season.  That’s not a worrisome drop in either velocity or K-rate, but it’s still noteworthy for a guy entering his age-34 season.

Using Fangraphs metrics – which were less bullish on his 2020 than baseball-reference – Lynn’s 4.17 FIP put him on pace for a 3.7 fWAR full-scale season (with a similar workload to 2019). That’s closer to middle-of-the-rotation stalwart than it is unequivocal ace. And yet, brass tacks: that’s valuable.

Potential acquiring teams might look at the number of young players who stepped into roles at the Major League level last season and choose to ride it out with their own cheaper, younger, and yet more volatile assets. Lynn no doubt brings more certainty to a rotation, however, and even his one-year contact can be seen as a positive for a team that values financial flexibility. In this day and age, most teams qualify.

If the Rangers decide to move him, they’ll look to get pitching prospects in return, writes Jeff Wilson of the Fort Worth Star-Telegram. Generally speaking, GM Jon Daniels spoke highly of their pool of position player prospects, complimenting their depth in that department. Pitching has long been an area for improvement for Texas, and it makes sense to seek pitching if subtracting a presence like Lynn.

There’s value in keeping Lynn, however. If Daniels is unable to get a blue-chip prospect in return, keeping Lynn isn’t the worst outcome. Besides, the AL West is arguably more wide open than at any point in the last five years. The Houston Astros stranglehold on the division finally lessened in 2020, the A’s could lose shortstop Marcus Semien in free agency, and the Angels are currently pivoting in the front office. The Mariners, meanwhile, have begun to put some solid pieces together, but they’re not a deterrent for Texas. Both are in the same boat, presumably near the bottom of the American League West.

Way-too-early oddsmakers peg the Rangers among the least likely MLB teams to win the World Series with odds around 80-to-1. It’s doubtful whether they have enough pitching beyond Lynn to truly compete, but stranger things have happened. Besides, Rangers’ fans might like to have a pitcher of Lynn’s pedigree in the rotation, even in the event that they struggle to keep pace. It’s easy to say from the outside that the Rangers are best served trading Lynn, but sometimes those living inside the house simply like living there too much to sell it.

So let’s hear from Rangers’ fans. Is it time to take the best prospect package available? Or do you want to see what happens to start the season? If you don’t consider the Rangers your favorite team, we want to hear from you too. There are more possible opinions than what I’m offering below, so do your best to choose the opinion closest to yours, then spell out the difference for us in the comments.

(Poll link for app users)

What Should The Rangers Do With Lance Lynn?
I'm NOT a Rangers fan, and I think they should trade him now. 58.68% (4,748 votes)
I'm NOT a Rangers fan, and I don't think they can get enough in a trade to make it worth it. Let him start the year in Texas. 24.94% (2,018 votes)
I'm a Rangers fan, and I think they should trade him now. 10.52% (851 votes)
I'm a Rangers fan, and I don't think they can get enough in a trade to make it worth it. Let him start the year in Texas. 5.86% (474 votes)
Total Votes: 8,091

Angels Add Three To Front Office

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New Angels GM Perry Minasian is bringing three of his former co-workers to his new team. Per the Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal (via Twitter), the Angels will hire Alex Tamin as an assistant GM, Dominic Chiti as a special assistant, and Rick Williams as a scout. All three were formerly employed by the Braves.

Tamin, Rosenthal notes, was also an assistant GM with the Braves, but his move to the Angels still qualifies as a promotion. Minasian, for example, ranked above Tamin with the Braves, despite the pair both holding the title of assistant GM. Minasian was the senior vice president of baseball operations and assistant GM, while Tamin held the sole title of assistant GM for major league operations. Tamin had previously been employed by the Dodgers as their director of baseball operations before moving to the Braves in December of 2017.He has a solid reputation for his work with analytics in player evaluation.

Chiti, meanwhile, was reassigned from his role as director of player development at the end of the 2019 season, the Athletic’s David O’Brien tweeted at the time. Last season, he served as a scouting special assistant, presumably a role similar to the one he’ll take on with the Angels.

Rick Williams was the Rays pitching coach from 1998 to 2000, at which point he joined the front office as a special assistant to the GM. He spent seven years as a scout for the Yankees and joined the Braves in 2014 as a special assistant for pitching development. Williams, Chiti, and Tamin represent the first three hires of Minasian as the new GM of the Angels.

Rays Notes: Nate Lowe, Franco

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Some updates from the Dominican League…

  • Rays first baseman Nate Lowe has left his Dominican League team in order to prepare for the MLB season, per Escogido Baseball (via Twitter). Officially, Lowe’s departure was a personal decision, but he was reportedly concerned about rising cases of COVID-19 and didn’t want to put his readiness for the 2021 MLB season at risk. Lowe faces stiff competition for playing time with the Rays. He has managed 245 plate appearances over the past two seasons with a capable .251/.322/.447 slash line, but his playing time has largely come with Ji-Man Choi on the shelf. Lowe faces a similar barrier to playing time next seasno, as he currently sits behind Choi and Yoshi Tsutsugo as lefty first-baseman/designated-hitter-types.
  • Top MLB prospect Wander Franco is recovering from “discomfort in his right bicep,” per Escogido Baseball (via Twitter). Franco has been excellent thus far with a triple slash of .350/.435/.500 in the Dominican League. The injury does not appear to be more than a day-to-day issue for the highly-touted shortstop. Rays fans are surely hopeful that Franco will find his way to the big-league roster this season. While it’s tough to improve upon a roster that won the American League pennant, adding a 80-rated hit tool from the minors is one way to upgrade. The Rays have shown a willingness to be patient with their prospects, however, and Willy Adames is capably holding down the shortstop spot in the meantime. Beyond Adames, the Rays boast a healthy stable of infielders, even before expanding to include other top Rays’ prospects. Taylor Walls, Vidal Brujan, and Kevin Padlo could soon compete for big-league at-bats, though none threaten Franco’s long-term claim to an infield spot.

Brewers Open To Moving Josh Hader

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The Brewers are looking for offensive upgrades this winter, and they have at least one significant bargaining chip. Milwaukee is open to offers for elite reliever Josh Hader, per Robert Murray of Fansided.

As central as Hader has been to this run of Brewers contention – and as unique a talent as he has been – the Brewers have to at least listen to offers. He’s projected to make $5.65MM this season, and he has another two seasons of control remaining. Now might be the peak of Hader’s trade value.

For the Brewers, he might be a luxury they can no longer afford. Even at his most dominant, Hader maxed out at 2.7 bWAR during the regular season. There’s additional value for Hader’s role in the postseason, however, evidenced by his dominant run of 10 scoreless innings in the 2018 playoffs that played a major role in getting the Brewers to the NLCS. For an NL contender looking to balance to scales against the  juggernaut Dodgers, a weapon like Hader could present a solution.

Besides, it just so happens that the Brewers produced another high-end reliever in Rookie-of-the-Year Devin Williams. As tantalizing as the pair would be at the tail-end of games, the Brewers have other holes to fill and a limited payroll. They had a roughly $97MM payroll in 2020, and they’re already close to that number with arbitration projections for 2021. They could non-tender Corey Knebel to open up about $5MM, but he’s also a high-end bullpen piece at his best – which he wasn’t in 2020 with a 6.08 ERA in 13 1/3 innings.

If they’re serious about upgrading the offense, which Murray notes finished 26th in runs and 24th in OPS, moving a piece like Hader might provide a path. Naysayers may point to the mph he lost on his fastball this season, but he was still among the very best in the game at limiting hard contact (85.4 mph EV), avoiding barrels (14.7 Barrel%), and striking out opposing hitters (39.7 K%) – not to mention a 2.94 xERA that ranks among the top 10% in the game.

Braves Sign Drew Smyly

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The Atlanta Braves announced the signing of southpaw Drew Smyly to a one-year, $11MM deal, per a team release (via Twitter). Smyly is represented by Frontline Athlete Management.

The 31-year-old Smyly has appeared in the Majors for the Tigers, Rays, Rangers, Phillies, and Giants, accumulating a 4.13 ERA/4.15 FIP across 188 games (111 starts) totaling 710 2/3 innings over seven years.

He also spent 2018 rehabbing from Tommy John surgery in the Chicago Cubs organization. The Cubs had signed Smyly to a two-year deal as he recovered, which kicked off a convoluted set of trades between the Cubs and Rangers. First, the Cubs acquired Cole Hamels from the Rangers in July of 2018. As part of that deal, the Rangers agreed to pay Hamels’ $6MM buyout if the Cubs chose not to pick up his $20MM option in 2019. Rather than pay the buyout, the Rangers took Smyly and his $7MM contract off the Cubs’ hands so that Chicago could afford Hamels’ option – which they did indeed execute.

Smyly, unfortunately, didn’t last the year in Texas. The Rangers released Smyly on June 25th after he stumbled to a 8.42 ERA in 51 1/3 innings. He would sign with the Phillies to finish 2019.

Smyly and Hamels again cross paths here, with Smyly presumably taking Hamels’ place in Atlanta after a year in which Hamels missed all but one start due to injury. If Hamels somehow ends up signing with the Giants (not inconceivable), their double-helical careers can continue to intertwine.

Smyly, meanwhile, looks like he might have finally returned to his early-career form – or better. The 31-year-old posted a 3.45 ERA across 26 1/3 innings in 2020 with 14.4 K/9 and 3.1 BB/9. He finished in the 89th percentile for Whiff% and 97th percentile for K%, per Statcast. His four-seamer also exhibited some out-of-character giddy-up, averaging 93.6 mph, a 2.5 mph jump from the year prior. As small a sample as that may be, it was enough for Smyly to parlay his one-year, $4MM deal with the Giants into a contract more than double in value with the Braves.

Smyly comes with a fair amount of injury risk, but the Braves know how to handle some injury uncertainty. They are coming off a season in which they experienced near total rotation turnover (while still managing to come within a game of winning the pennant). If Smyly can perform anywhere near his 2020 level – when he limited opposing hitters to a .198/.261/.297 line – the Braves will happily cash in on that upside. They do intend to place him into the rotation, per the Athletic’s David O’Brien (via Twitter).

The concern, beyond injury, is that Smyly might turn back into the pumpkin that logged a 6.24 ERA between the Rangers and Phillies in 2019. If you consider his time with the Rangers an aberration due to his recent recovery from Tommy John, however, Smyly’s combined ERA between the Phillies and Giants is a much more palatable 4.15 ERA over 89 innings. The Braves would take that kind of production in a rotation alongside Max Fried, Mike Soroka, Ian Anderson, and Kyle Wright.

Orioles Receive Miguel Padilla To Complete Hector Velázquez Trade

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12:18 pm: The Orioles will receive right-hander Miguel Padilla from the Astros, the Orioles announced. Per their announcement on Twitter: “Padilla, 18, was originally signed by the Astros on November 26, 2018, as an International free agent out of Carora, Venezuela. He appeared in 19 games for the DSL Astros in 2019, pitching to a 4-1 record with a 2.08 ERA (6 ER/26.0 IP) and 26 strikeouts.“ As noted below, the move isn’t likely to affect the Orioles’ 40-man roster.

7:26 am: The Orioles are close to completing a July 29th trade that sent Hector Velázquez to the Astros for a player to be named later, per Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com.

The funny thing about this trade is that Velázquez never appeared in a game for the Orioles, and he hasn’t appeared in a game for the Astros either. The Orioles claimed Velázquez off waivers from the Red Sox in March. He was part of the O’s original 60-man player pool, though he had been outrighted off their 40-man roster just before Opening Day.

The trade was a depth move for the Astros, but Velázquez never got the call. Still, they’ll be sending something back to Baltimore in the near future. The deal still makes some sense for Houston, as with just 2.017 days of service time, the Astros now control the right-hander’s rights for another four seasons.

In parts of three seasons with the Red Sox, Velazquez showed flashes of promise, including a 3.18 ERA over 85 innings during the Red Sox’ 2018 championship season. The swingman has never produced thick-enough strikeout rates, however, and when his walk rate rose from 2.8 BB/9 in 2018 to 4.5 BB/9 in 2019, his ERA rose with it to a 5.43 ERA. By Fielding Independent Pitching, however, his 2018 season (4.15 FIP) was neither as good as it seemed, nor was his 2019 season (4.74 FIP) quite as bad as it seemed. He’ll be an option for Houston’s bullpen in 2021.

Both teams are trying to finalize their 40-man roster additions before Friday, at which point any players eligible for December’s Rule 5 draft will be left unprotected. It’s likely that Baltimore’ return won’t feature a player in that field, but it’s certainly possible, in which case Baltimore would surely prefer a resolution in the coming days.

Quick Hits: Non-Tender Increase, Changes In Catching, Positive COVID-19 Tests

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Given the financial impact of coronavirus and the increasing trend of non-tenders, expect a record number of non-tenders this offseason, writes Eric Longenhagen of Fangraphs. Last year’s 53 total non-tenders was already a record, and it’s safe to assume MLB will surpass that number this year. There are success stories from this field, of course. Take Kevin Gausman, who was non-tendered last winter before being extended and accepting the $18.9MM qualifying offer just a year later.

Increasing DFAs is an issue that compounds on itself, however, as those non-tendered players enter the available player pool, giving teams more and more options to consider opposite their own arbitration-eligible players. Specifically, Longehagen points to catchers, power first basemen or designated hitters, and infielders without power as three pools of players likely to hit the open market.

  • Longenhagen also provides interesting analysis about the changing dynamics of the catcher position. The eventual implementation of electronic strikes zones diminishes the important of pitch framing, which has long been on the league radar. But Longenhagen also notes that the universal DH makes the catcher spot the most likely place for a pinch-hitter. The universal DH does seem to be on its way, even if it doesn’t happen in 2021, and the two-back system, so to speak, is already in use for much of the league. Still, the specialization of the catcher position is shifting ever so slightly. Whether we see arm strength and blocking ability more valued in free agency this season remains to be seen. Electronic strike zones could alter the pitching market too, of course, but any shifts in that regard are more likely to be in the development and drafting stages than free agency.
  • The Mariners cancelled their last two instructional league games due to a pair of positive COVID-19 tests, per Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times (via Twitter). One of the two also had a pair of negative tests, while the other is isolating and following protocols. There were no other positive tests and contact tracing was performed, but the Peoria facility is still being shut down – as has become the standard – out of an “abundance of caution.”

Marlins Introduce GM Kim Ng

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The Miami Marlins introduced Kim Ng as their new general manager today, streaming live on Twitter and broadcast on MLB Network. Though it was a muted affair because of coronavirus protocols – the magnitude of the moment was anything but. Ng received over 1,000 messages of congratulations “from all walks,” including writers, former players, current managers, scouts, executives, and others. Per Jordan McPherson of the Miami Herald (via Twitter), Ng said:

The idea that it has effected this many people is just extraordinary. I thought it would be a big deal, but this is beyond my expectations … People are looking for hope, are looking for inspiration. I’m happy this is part of it.”

The defining characteristic of her journey, said Ng, was fearlessness. She recognized Marlins CEO Derek Jeter for setting an example for the sort of fearlessness needed to be a great player, and for now demonstrating similar fortitude as an executive. As much courage as she needed to interview for position after position over the years, it would seem she landed in the right place. Ng lauded the Miami organization for building a diverse organization:

The information has become more precise, but you can’t ignore the different perspectives needed.”

Involving as many voices as possible was a theme for Ng throughout the day. She spoke about the ease with which she’s been able to communicate within the Marlins organization already, credited to her experience and level of comfort with, among others, Gary Denbo, Jeter, and Don Mattingly, the latter of whom she worked with in Los Angeles.

Interestingly, Ng said that she hasn’t faced much overt resistance in the day-to-day throughout her career, from a discrimination standpoint. She did, however, admit that some of the time when she interviewed for GM roles, she felt it wasn’t exactly on the “up-and-up.” And while she recognized the potential tokenism, she also credited those moments for getting her name out there and furthering the process that ultimately came to fruition with the Marlins.

Her graciousness aside, this moment was a long time coming, and it’s a comfort to many. Per MLB Network’s Jon Morosi (via Twitter), Ng said:

I thought it would be a big deal, but this is beyond my expectations . . . People are looking for hope. People are looking for inspiration. I’m happy that this is part of it.”

In terms of her plans for the Marlins, being seen as a “pillar of the community” is a priority for the business side, being visible and active as a source for change and growth in Miami. On the baseball side, too much remains in limbo in terms of coronavirus to lay out specific plans for next season at this time. Making baseball decisions, however, will be a collaborative process involving many people from different areas within the organization.

In sum, as the first woman to hold the title of general manager, Ng will forever be an icon and a trailblazer in the sport. As such, Ng’s biggest piece of advice was this:

Tell people what you think…you have your opinion, just voice it.”

Mets Intent On Building Depth

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Given their desire to contend from day one, it’s easy to see the Mets all-in on any of the year’s best available players, including star shortstop Francisco Lindor. But that might not be the course of action that makes the most sense, writes Joel Sherman of the New York Post. Sherman asked Mets president Sandy Alderson about their plans for free agent spending versus trades.

Anderson’s response: “There are only two currencies in baseball — one is players, the other is money. If you are not spending money, you have to spend players. … We have to be careful how we use players in transactions.”

During Steve Cohen’s introductory press conference, Alderson laid out some of the team’s most pressing needs, which included infield defense, bullpen consistency, and a new catching tandem. But he also spoke about building out better depth, and that’s tough to do when trading away prospects for established stars, as was the approach taken by previous GM Brodie Van Wagenen.

Said Anderson (per Sherman): “We’ve got no depth at Double-A and Triple-A, so we are doing all we can to sign six-year minor-league free agents to fill out depth with our top two minor-league teams and provide up-and-down depth for the season.”

Of course, that strategy doesn’t always produce the best collection of ready Major League talent, but as the Dodgers (and others) have shown, the right talent evaluators/developers can absolutely find gems among that pool. Beyond those minor league free agents, the Mets have the opportunity to flex some financial muscle in an offseason where spending capital should be a considerable market advantage. That doesn’t preclude them from making a big splash for someone like Lindor, of course, but it does speak to their priorities this winter, as well as their strategy for contention more broadly.

It might also speak to their timeline. The Mets have yet to hire their president of baseball ops, so Alderson may leave some of the bigger decisions until they are fully-staffed. Collecting minor league free agents won’t have the direction-setting impact of a Lindor-or-equivalent acquisition. Speculatively speaking, Alderson would want to leave as many avenues open as possible until they find the right person to run baseball ops.

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