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Caleb Cotham “Clear Frontrunner” To Be Next Phillies Pitching Coach

By TC Zencka | November 15, 2020 at 9:03am CDT

NOVEMBER 15: The Phillies are indeed hoping to finalize a deal with Cotham in the next week, hears Jon Heyman of MLB Network (Twitter link).

NOVEMBER 14: Reds’ assistant pitching coach and director of pitching Caleb Cotham is the leading candidate to take over as the next pitching coach of the Philadelphia Phillies, per Jim Salisbury of NBC Sports Philadelphia. Salisbury names Cotham as the “clear frontrunner.”

Cotham, 33, pitched for two seasons at the major-league level, making his debut for manager Joe Girardi and the New York Yankees in 2015. Girardi likely has significant sway in this hiring decision as the manager of the Phillies, especially since they continue to search for a new head of baseball ops. The Phillies, however, aren’t the only team that Cotham has spoken with this offseason.

Speculatively speaking, Cotham’s experience with Driveline Baseball could be a selling point for data-interested hurlers, as well as the organization on the whole. One such hurler happens to be the top starting pitcher on the free agent market. It’s easy to connect the dots between a potential Cotham hire and NL Cy Young Trevor Bauer – just as we do between Cotham and Girardi – but that’s two steps down the line. If a connection is all it takes to sign Bauer, after all, the Reds would still be in pole position. The Phillies have, however, shown a willingness to spend for starting pitching on the open market in recent years with the additions of Jake Arrieta and Zack Wheeler. Still, if Cotham does indeed turn out to be their hire, it will be on his own merit.

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Cincinnati Reds Philadelphia Phillies Caleb Cotham Joe Girardi Trevor Bauer

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Giants’ Prospect Alexander Canario Undergoes Shoulder Surgery

By TC Zencka | November 14, 2020 at 2:20pm CDT

Giants prospect Alexander Canario dislocated his shoulder in the final week of the instructional league and underwent surgery to repair a torn labrum, per MLB.com’s Maria I. Guardado (via Twitter). The surgery was performed on his left shoulder by Dr. Ken Akizuki, notes Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle (via Twitter). The timetable for his return is unspecified at this time.

Canario was fifth on Baseball America’s midseason assessment of the Giants’ prospects. Josh Norris of BA wrote:

One of the team’s many talented Latin American prospects, Canario made a big impression in 2019 by getting to short-season Salem-Keizer and producing a 1.000 OPS as a teenager. He was added to the Giants’ player pool as a teenager this season and has the offensive tools to profile in a corner outfield spot.”

Though Canario had the opportunity to train at their alternate site as part of the 60-man player pool, he’s likely a few years from the majors, especially after this injury. The right-handed outfielder spent 2019 split between the Arizona League and Low-A Salem-Keizer, where he was close to two years younger than the average player. His total line comprised of 265 plate appearances over 59 games. He slashed an impressive .318/.377/.623 with 16 home runs.

Canario is part of an excited young group of San Francisco prospects, with Joey Bart, Marco Luciano, Hunter Bishop, Patrick Bailey, Luis Matos, and Heliot Ramos, among others. With Bart reaching the Majors this season and Ramos a year or two ahead of Luciano and Canario, the Giants plan to be competing by the time Canario arrives in the bigs. At the very least, Canario has the chance to be part of a finishing wave of prospects that the Giants hope can turn them back into first-class contenders.

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San Francisco Giants Alexander Canario

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AL East Notes: Blue Jays, Catchers, Rays, McKay, Red Sox, Cora

By TC Zencka | November 14, 2020 at 1:56pm CDT

The Blue Jays are prepared to make impact moves this offseason, but they’re also preaching patience, per Shi Davidi of Sportsnet.ca. If they do make a move early – beyond what they’ve done so far – GM Ross Atkins thinks it will be a significant one. Per Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet.ca, Atkins said, “If we were to move earlier, the impact would be significant. And that doesn’t take us out of significant impact later.” If you’re sensing a theme, you’re not imagining it: The Jays are dreaming big this winter. One of the biggest names available is catcher J.T. Realmuto. The former Phillie would fit the mold described above, but Atkins also says they are “extremely satisfied” with Toronto’s catching situation. And why shouldn’t they be? With Danny Jansen, Reese McGuire and Alejandro Kirk all contributing at the big-league level, they have affordable depth and upside in the form of Kirk, who hit .375/.400/.583 in a 24-at-bat cup-of-coffee in 2020. Still, that depth can be repurposed to make room for a star like Realmuto, especially in the American League where the DH provides opportunity for diversified playing time.

  • Southpaw Brendan McKay remains in Baseball America’s list of top-10 Rays prospects, but J.J. Cooper sounds concerned about McKay’s ability to recover from shoulder surgery on Kyle Glaser’s Baseball America podcast. Cooper notes that Hyun Jin Ryu took about three years to really return to form after a similar surgery. All that said, it’s telling that McKay remains at number six on the list. Until he begins his return and something new emerges, the only confirmed change for McKay is his timeline and his risk profile. The upside that made McKay a top prospect in the first place remains.
  • Red Sox Chief Baseball Officer Chaim Bloom was given full discretion to make the final hiring decision for the Red Sox managerial opening this offseason. Bringing back Alex Cora wasn’t money in the bank, as it might seem, writes Alex Speier of the Boston Globe. The assumption would be that Bloom had the final say-so, but given the unique nature of Cora’s return, and the fact that Bloom didn’t hire Cora the first time around, it would be fair to wonder how much ownership weighed in on the decision. The idea to interview Cora at all, however, was Bloom’s, per Dan Shaughnessy of the Boston Globe. Bloom and general manager Brian O’Halloran met with Cora in an “empty hangar on the airport tarmac.” It was an exhausting but thorough interview by the accounts of those involved, and it didn’t seal the deal. That interview simply entered Cora into the field. Bloom and O’Halloran kept ownership and their assistant general managers involved in the process throughout, but ultimately the decision was left to Bloom, who went with Cora over the Phillies’ integrative baseball performance director Sam Fuld.  Definitely read Speier’s piece for the full account.
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Boston Red Sox Notes Tampa Bay Rays Toronto Blue Jays Alex Cora Brendan McKay Chaim Bloom Ross Atkins Sam Fuld

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Reactions To Kim Ng Hiring

By TC Zencka | November 14, 2020 at 12:18pm CDT

The Miami Marlins set baseball aflutter with their momentous hiring of Kim Ng as their general manager. Accolades have poured in for Ng, who becomes the first woman and the first Asian-American to hold the position of GM. Those diminishing the gravity of this hire have been appropriately shouted down, like the Athletic’s Britt Ghiroli does via Twitter here, but on the whole, the response has been overwhelmingly positive.

The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal goes back to Ng’s beginnings in baseball, speaking with former big-league exec Dan Evans, who hired her as an intern when she was 21 years old. From her first time leading an arbitration hearing, to her recruitment by the league offices, to Evans’ hiring of Ng for a second time, the former Dodgers’ GM speaks glowingly of Ng and her readiness to take on the leadership of a ballclub. Said Evans (per Rosenthal):

Part of the reason she’s going to be great is because perseverance is one of her stronger character assets. It’s going to allow her to recognize that maybe it didn’t happen in the speed she would have liked. But has there ever been a more qualified person on the first day on the job? I can’t remember one.

“The Marlins didn’t hire her as a woman. They hired her because she’s the most qualified person for the job. In my mind, she has been a number of times. The ownership groups who interviewed her just weren’t ready for whatever reason. I’m thrilled about what the Marlins did. As the father of a couple of daughters, I always want that person who is going to shatter a ceiling to be ready for the opportunity, because there is enormous pressure to be that first person. She doesn’t have the ability to fail in some areas that a guy would. There is going to be far more attention. She’s not only ready, but she has been ready. They hired the best and most qualified person who also happens to be the first female general manager. It’s a great statement for the game and the progression of our society.”

MLB.com’s Anne Rogers provides a number of reactions to Ng’s hiring. In terms of the importance this hiring has for the league and for women, Rachel Balkovec, a Yankees Minor League hitting coach said this (per Rogers):

It changes the conversation from, ‘Oh it’s never been done,’ to, ‘Oh, well, Kim’s doing it so you can do it. With Jeter, I think that’s important, too, because it’s like, ‘Well, if he can make that decision, somebody who has that much respect in the game, anybody can make the decision.’ It changes the conversation and the idea that people have about what a GM looks like. The importance really just can’t be overstated.”

Jeter’s relationship with Ng goes back to her time as an assistant GM with the Yankees from 1998 until 2001. That Jeter knows Ng so well goes a long way in instilling confidence in her abilities to steer the Marlins in the right direction. The presumption of skepticism, to be clear, has everything to do with the usual skepticism that goes with being a new GM. For Jeter and for those who know Ng, however, there isn’t a hint of doubt that she was the right hire.

Ng is described by those who worked for her as an attentive, gracious, and measured leader. For example, she got players with the Dodgers to call Evans to thank him when they clinched a division title, even though Evans had been fired before the start of the season, writes Dylan Hernandez of the Los Angeles Times. That kind of attention and compassion goes a long way in a business requiring cold calculations that dispatch players to-and-fro without their say-so.

For all the affirmations of her character, Ng was hired because the Marlins believe she’s the right person to bring a championship back to Miami. That, too, is Ng’s goal. Per MLB.com’s Joe Frisaro, Ng says:

This challenge is one I don’t take lightly. When I got into this business, it seemed unlikely a woman would lead a Major League team, but I am dogged in the pursuit of my goals. My goal is now to bring championship baseball to Miami. I am both humbled and eager to continue building the winning culture our fans expect and deserve.”

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Miami Marlins Kim Ng

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AL East Notes: Rays, Red Sox, Rich Hill

By TC Zencka | November 14, 2020 at 9:59am CDT

Participation in the postseason usually garners a significant revenue bump for qualifying teams, which made it particularly painful for the small-market Rays to miss out on the revenue from 10 home games in 2020. Not only did the Rays lose that potential revenue because of coronavirus, but this year’s playoffs actually cost them money, per Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times. They’re also missing out on their usual revenue-sharing check, as well as, obviously, attendance revenues, notes Topkin. It’s going to have an affect on Rays’ roster decisions this winter. That could mean smaller cost-saving moves like non-tendering Hunter Renfroe, or it could mean more impactful moves like dealing core players Kevin Kiermaier or Blake Snell. Rays GM Erik Neander is likely to be active exploring the trade market, but that’s nothing new for Tampa.

  • Rich Hill finished a successful one-year stint in Minnesota with a 3.03 ERA/3.88 FIP across 8 starts totaling 38 2/3 innings with 7.2 K/9 to 4.0 BB/9. It’s those last two numbers that might trouble the 40-year-old Hill. From 2017 to 2019, Hill posted 10.68 K/9 to 2.97 BB/9 with the Dodgers. Still, Hill was largely effective in 2020 by keeping the ball in the ballpark. But he didn’t accomplish his primary goal: winning a World Series. Hill has only appeared in five postseasons throughout his 16-year career, and he’s never won a World Series. In choosing his next team, writes WEEI’s Rob Bradford, Hill’s primary calculus is playing the odds and trying to find a place to contribute that gives him the best chance of winning a World Series.
  • That said, Hill hasn’t ruled out joining his hometown Red Sox, per Bradford. Hill does offer an assessment of Boston’s needs this offseason, saying, “Bullpen. Work on the bullpen. I think the lineup is good. Get everybody back. Obviously getting Sale back is huge. Eddie [Rodriguez], having him come back, being healthy. And Nathan [Eovaldi]. Those are three really, really, really good guys.” It’ll be tough sledding for the Red Sox in the AL East, though returning Sale and Rodriguez to the rotation would be a healthy start.
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Boston Red Sox Notes Tampa Bay Rays Trade Market Blake Snell Coronavirus Erik Neander Hunter Renfroe Kevin Kiermaier Marc Topkin Rich Hill

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MLB Planning For Fan Attendance In 2021

By TC Zencka | November 14, 2020 at 8:58am CDT

Commissioner Rob Manfred took a judicious approach to allowing fans into stadiums in 2020, and it’s hard to argue that it wasn’t the right strategy. MLB didn’t allow fans into stadiums until the Championship Series, and even then they limited entries. With rigorous testing and strict protocols, MLB went 54 days without a positive test before Justin Turner tested positive for COVID-19 during game six of the World Series. The NFL, in their struggle to contain the virus, is proving the significance of MLB’s achievement in that regard.

There’s a new plan for next season, however. Commissioner Manfred believes that the lack of live baseball diminished interest in the sport and affected revenues beyond the obvious loss of ticket sales. Specifically, MLB estimates that 40% of their overall revenue ties directly to the presence of fans at live games, per the Athletic’s Evan Drellich. Even in a limited capacity, fans at ballgames in 2021 could help keep audience engaged throughout the season and into its endgame: the playoffs.

Drellich provides some Nielson ratings to quantify the drop in postseason viewership. Both the Championship Series and the World Series saw ~30% drop in viewership from the previous season.

Of course, there are many challenges ahead for Commissioner Manfred and MLB. Cases of coronavirus are at an all-time high, and though the winter has long been projected to be particularly rough, the current rate of infection in places that Wisconsin is worse than expected. Whether the nation can get control of the situation before March and April remains very much unclear. Manfred does note that the allowance of fan attendance can only move forward with approval from local health officials.

They will have the experience of the 2020 season to help them along, of course. The couple of breakouts early in the season helped MLB to narrow their focus to containing the spread of the virus while simply allowing for changes to the schedule. Regional play also helped contain outbreaks for MLB, though it’s unclear right now if a similar approach would be taken over a full season – or even if MLB plans on having a “full” 162-game season in 2021.

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Uncategorized Coronavirus Rob Manfred

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Dayton Moore Expects Royals To Be Competitive In 2021

By TC Zencka | November 11, 2020 at 6:50pm CDT

The Kansas City Royals last made the playoffs in 2015. That was a good year. Alex Gordon, Eric Hosmer, Mike Moustakas, Lorenzo Cain, Salvador Perez, and a transcendent bullpen won the AL pennant for the second consecutive season, and they finished it off with World Series victory.

That team is the most recent Royals squad to post a winning record. They went 81-81 in 2016, 80-82 in 2017, and then the bottom fell out. They lost 100+ games in each of the next two seasons before posting a 26-34 record in this year’s shortened season. That’s a 70-win pace for a full season, definitely an improvement over back-to-back season in which they failed to crack 60 wins.

Manager Mike Matheny will need to coax a more substantial improvement from his squad if they want to compete in 2021. That’s indeed the plan, however. General Manager Dayton Moore spoke with reporters during a Zoom call today, and he made no bones about his expectations for the Royals in 2021. Moore said, per Lynn Worthy of the Kansas City Star:

“We expect to win next year. What does that look like? Is it going to be enough wins to make the playoffs? We’ll find out. Our mindset is going to be to win every single pitch, every inning, win every game. That’s the only way that we’re ever going to win another championship, you’ve got to expect to win at all aspects.”

Don’t expect the Royals to be major players in free agency, however. The small market club figures to be judicious in adding from the open market. The primary pieces of the next Royals contender are going to be developed in-house, as has been the Royals preference. They’ve long believed in their current crop of players, even as the team as a whole has struggled. Interestingly, Moore did say that he doesn’t see finances getting in the way of improving the team, should the right opportunity come along.

The Royals plan to pursue their own free agents before expanding to the open market, which would be very “Royals” of them, though returning any of Greg Holland, Ian Kennedy, Mike Montgomery, or even Trevor Rosenthal could help boost a bullpen that needs some work. The Royals have incrementally added young arms like Brad Keller, Kris Bubic, and Brady Singer to veteran Danny Duffy in the rotation. The bullpen remains a work in progress. They did, however, put forth a 3.84 ERA in 2020, a mark that ranked 8th in the majors. Losing Holland would create an opening, with first looks presumably going to Josh Staumont, Kyle Zimmer, Jesse Hahn, and Scott Barlow. That quartet present some intriguing options with which to move forward into 2021.

Otherwise, the Royals will continue to try to develop and build from within. Bobby Witt Jr., Khalil Lee, and Kyle Isbel received high praise from Moore as prospects that could turn into significant pieces. Witt was the #2 overall pick of the 2019 draft, and he has yet to play a full season in the minors.

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Kansas City Royals Dayton Moore Greg Holland Ian Kennedy Mike Matheny Mike Montgomery Trevor Rosenthal

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Trevor Bauer Wins NL Cy Young Award

By TC Zencka | November 11, 2020 at 5:50pm CDT

Trevor Bauer of the Cincinnati Reds was awarded the Cy Young in the National League by the BBWAA tonight. Amazingly, Bauer becomes the first Cy Young award winner in Reds’ history.

Bauer made the most of his free agent season with a league-leading 1.73 ERA over 73 innings, including 2 complete game shutouts. Bauer showed up in the postseason for the Reds as well, going 7 2/3 innings allowing just 2 hits while striking out 12 and walking none. During the regular season, opponents hit just .159 against him, the best mark in the league.

That represents quite the platform for a freshly minted free agent. Teams will also have to consider Bauer’s frustrating 2019 campaign, though he was dealing with injuries for much of the year and his comeback left little to be desired. Bauer is one of the most entertaining, enigmatic, and opinionated personalities in the game, and now he’s heading into the open market as the reigning NL Cy Young Award winner.

As close as the race seemed leading up to the event, Bauer ran away with it, taking 27 first-place votes and 201 total points. Yu Darvish finished 2nd with 3 first-place votes and 123 total point, and Jacob deGrom finished 3rd with 89 points. 12 different pitchers received at least one vote for the award.

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Cincinnati Reds Newsstand Trevor Bauer

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Shane Bieber Wins AL Cy Young Award

By TC Zencka | November 11, 2020 at 5:18pm CDT

Shane Bieber of the Cleveland Indians was awarded the top pitching honor in the American League by the BBWAA tonight. It’s Bieber’s first Cy Young award. He finished 4th in Cy Young voting last season. Bieber was a unanimous winner, taking all 30 first place votes.

Bieber stood head and shoulders above the field in 2020, his age-25 season and third in the majors. Over 12 starts, he posted a 1.63 ERA/2.07 FIP with 14.2 K/9 to 2.4 BB/9, good for 3.3 rWAR and a 281 ERA+. He led the majors in wins, ERA, FIP, ERA+, strikeouts, and strikeout rate, while he led the American League with the fewest hits allowed per nine innings (5.4 H/9). Simply, it was a remarkable season for Bieber.

Kenta Maeda of the Twins finished 2nd with 18 of 30 2nd-place votes and 92 total points. Hyun Jin Ryu of the Blue Jays finished 3rd with 51 total points, one ahead of the 4th-place finisher Gerrit Cole. There were 11 different pitchers to receive at least one vote. Bieber is the first unanimous winner in the AL since Justin Verlander in 2011.

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Cleveland Guardians Newsstand Shane Bieber

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George Springer, J.T. Realmuto Decline Qualifying Offers

By TC Zencka | November 11, 2020 at 4:12pm CDT

The final qualifying offer decisions are in, as both George Springer of the Astros and J.T. Realmuto of the Phillies have declined their qualifying offers, per MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand (via Twitter). The Astros and Phillies will receive compensatory draft picks if/when they sign with another club. The final tally has four players declining (Springer, Realmuto, DJ LeMahieu, Trevor Bauer) and two accepting their qualifying offer (Marcus Stroman, Kevin Gausman).

Realmuto, 30 next season, will be the top catcher on the free agent market by a wide margin. His power and athleticism is unmatched behind the plate, and he’s faster than he looks. Realmuto has everything you look for in a catcher, but at 30-years-old, there are still some questions as far as how well he’ll fare in the current climate. Time will tell, but after slashing .273/.333/.492 with 36 home runs over 192 games in his Phillies’ tenure, Realmuto should have no shortage of suitors. The tastemakers here at MLBTR pegged him as 2nd on our list of Top-50 Free Agents in the market, naming the Mets, Reds, Nationals, Yankees, Blue Jays, Phillies, Cardinals, Astros, and Angels as potential suitors.

Springer, 31, has his own bugaboo that makes this foray into the free market an interesting one. There are few holes in his resume, but the part he played in the Astros’ sign-stealing scandal will continue to be a line item on any story involving Springer. Still, with a 153 wRC+ since 2019, the ability to play center or left, and 5.0 rWAR per 650 plate appearances throughout his career, Springer will get some attention this winter.

Besides, not that we believe in this sort of thing anymore, but he’s nails in the postseason. He boasts a playoff triple slash of .269/.349/.546 over an absurd 63 career games with 19 home runs and 38 RBIs. That extrapolates out to 49 HRs and 98 RBIs over 162 games. He’s tied for 4th all-time in playoff home runs and currently ranks 5th in championship win probability added. We temper our expectations when it comes to sustainability in high-leverage situations, but we can still marvel at the success Springer has managed thus far in his career (with the now-usual caveat for his part in the sign-stealing).

The MLBTR soothsayers have Springer third on our Top-50 Free Agents list, with the White Sox, Blue Jays, Phillies, Nationals, Cardinals, and Mets as possible destinations. Even with the rejection of the qualifying offer, a return to Houston cannot be ruled out either.

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Houston Astros Newsstand Philadelphia Phillies Transactions George Springer J.T. Realmuto

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