TC Zencka | MLB Trade Rumors

Vlad Guerrero Jr. Shifts To First Base

By TC Zencka | July 10, 2020 at 1:59pm CDT

We knew this moment would come. We just didn’t know it would happen this soon. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. will make first base his primary position moving forward, per Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet (via Twitter).

After one full season at third base, the 21-year-old power phenom will focus his attentions on becoming a primary first baseman and designated hitter. Vlad committed 17 errors in 94 starts at the hot corner in 2019. The advanced metrics didn’t care much for his effort either (-9 DRS, -9.4 UZR). Statcast’s Outs Above Average pegged Vlad last in the league (tied with the Twins’ Jorge Polanco) with -16 OAA.

Offensively, there’s little doubt that Vlad Jr. has one of the most prodigious power strokes in the game, even at such a young age, and this move allows him to focus on what he does best. Vlad Jr. stroked 15 home runs over 514 plate appearances while slashing .272/.339/.433 as a 20-year-old. The move across the diamond was an eventuality, and in some ways, it makes sense to make the move as soon as possible rather than spend development time at a position without a long-term future. It’s certainly possible Guerrero Jr. ends up as a primary designated hitter, but he’ll try his hand at first in 2020.

With Vlad Jr. shifting over to first, Travis Shaw expects to get most of the playing time at third, per Nicholson-Smith. Lourdes Gurriel Jr. hasn’t played any third, but the infielder/outfielder could presumably pick it up, while second baseman Cavan Biggio played a little bit at the hot corner in Triple-A. Breyvic Valera is also capable of handling third.

Shaw, signed as a free agent, is coming off a bizarrely disappointing showing in 2019 as he hit just .157/.281/.270 across 270 plate appearances with the Brewers. That allowed the Blue Jays to snag him on the cheap, as they’ll hope he rebounds to something closer to his career line of .243/.327/.451.

Updates On Coronavirus Results, Testing Sites, Procedures

By TC Zencka | July 10, 2020 at 1:38pm CDT

MLB and the MLBPA released the results of their initial intake testing this morning via a press release. Through July 9th, there have been 66 positive tests out of 3,748 samples. 58 of the positives were players, while the other 8 were staff members. Only 3 clubs did not have any instances of positive tests.

Teams have now moved into the monitoring phase of testing. With monitoring now underway, the new totals have 83 positive tests from a total 11,149 samples (0.7%). Not included in the press release was the total number of individuals tested. Players and staff alike are being tested multiple times, and while it’s good to see such a low positive results rate, given the way this virus spreads, it would be apropos to know the total number of individuals being tested to get a sense of how much of the population is testing positive. The process, of course, is a work in progress. Here’s the latest from the MLB’s attempts to tackle the coronavirus pandemic…

A number of teams had to shift their plans as test results have come in slower than anticipated. This garnered criticism from some players – notably Kris Bryant – and prompted MLB to look for a second site. Needless to say, timing is key with these tests, and any testing backlog threatens the system the sport established to protect player and staff safety. MLB has secured a second site for testing, per The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal. Rosenthal provides this quote from a league spokesperson: “This decision was not made because the Utah lab cannot handle all of the testing taking place. No clinical laboratory will process samples faster than the Utah laboratory. This decision by the Utah lab was a business decision to ensure continuity of results reporting and to make sure that MLB’s COVID-19 testing program is not interrupted for any reason.” The Utah-based lab that MLB uses as its primary testing site subcontracted its additional venue at Rutgers University. All of the results will continue to come from the Utah site even though a portion of the testing will be diverted to the Rutgers location.
Major League Baseball recently chartered two flights from the Dominican Republic to Miami to bring players and staff members stateside for the start of Spring Training 2.0. But players and staff weren’t tested for coronavirus before boarding the planes, and even though passengers wore masks and socially distanced on board, players on both planes tested positive during intake testing, per Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post. Over 160 people were present on the two flights. A number of Washington Nationals players present on these flights tests positive, though they were asymptomatic. MLB says it was protecting the Dominican healthcare system, trying not to divert their resources. Still, considering the dangers of the virus, to board those two planes without testing is a little fast and loose for an organization with such deep pockets like Major League Baseball. If they are truly committed to this reboot, instances like this don’t present the best optics.

Royals’ Salvador Perez Tests Positive For COVID-19

By TC Zencka | July 4, 2020 at 12:26pm CDT

Royals fans will have to wait just a little longer to see long-time backstop Salvador Perez back in a Royals’ uni. Salvy is the latest player to allow his name to be released after testing positive for coronavirus. Perez is asymptomatic as of right now, and though he personally stressed that people should wear their masks, he feels well enough to play (though he can’t, at least for now), per The Athletic’s Alec Lewis.

After missing all of 2019, the 30-year-old Perez was looking to get back to his role as the Royals’ everyday catcher. The Royals have five other catchers in their 60-man player pool: Nick Dini, Cam Gallagher, MJ Melendez, Sebastian Rivero, and Meibrys Viloria. Gallagher and Viloria would figure to get the gameday starts if Perez isn’t back in time, though Dini could also get a look after appearing in 20 games for the big-league club in 2019.

Perez is a career .266/.297/.442 hitter over eight seasons with the Royals. He’s one of the last remaining members of the back-to-back pennant-winning clubs from 2014 and 2015, along with Alex Gordon and Danny Duffy.

Nationals Notes: Kieboom To Start At Third, Denaburg Out, Cavalli In

By TC Zencka | July 4, 2020 at 12:08pm CDT

Speaking to a handful of DMV-area reporters, Nationals’ manager Davey Martinez said that he expects Carter Kieboom to be the starting third baseman, MASN’s Mark Zuckerman, and Todd Dybas of NBC Sports were among those reporting. It’s a bit of a surprising revelation from Martinez, as last we heard, Kieboom wasn’t even a sure thing to make the Opening Day roster. At the same time, most projections had the 22-year-old making his play for the hot corner by August, surely, so it might be that not much has changed in terms of organizational outlook. More on this and the other goings-on around Nats’ camp…

One change that might have affected the Nats’ plan for Kieboom, however, was Ryan Zimmerman opting out for the season. Without Zimmerman, there seems to be plenty of at-bats to go around the remaining veteran contingent of Nationals’ infielders. First base should fall to a strict platoon between Howie Kendrick and Eric Thames, while the off-day first baseman is also likely to split time at DH with Asdrubal Cabrera. Starlin Castro, then, would handle second base relatively full-time while occasionally being spelled by either Cabrera or Kendrick. The Nationals tend to let their prospects play full time, so if Kieboom keeps the starting role through Opening Day, he’s likely to get more-or-less the full slate of 60 games to prove he deserves it.
Updating some numbers for us, Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post mentions that the Nationals have about 49-50 guys in camp right now of the 58 currently named to the player pool. That said, the Nats’ are widely expected to add first-round pick Cade Cavalli to their 60-man player pool shortly, per TalkNats. The Nats have a few open spots on their roster now that a number of players have opted out for the season (Ryan Zimmerman, Joe Ross, Welington Castillo).
As the Cavalli addition presupposes, the Nats have chosen to include most of the organization’s highest-regarded prospects in the 60-man player pool. That group would have included Mason Denaburg, were he not out for the season recovering from offseason surgery, per Stephen G. Mears of TalkNats. The 6’4″ former catcher ranks eighth on the Nats’ top prospect list per Baseball America. He was the Nats’ top draft choice in 2018, though he’s managed just 20 1/3 innings of pro ball since then.

60-Man Roster Notes: Orioles, Phillies

By TC Zencka | July 4, 2020 at 11:18am CDT

As teams continue to get health and travel reports, many have slots left to fill on their 60-man rosters, so we’ll use this post throughout the day to track the minor changes.

LATEST

The Giants added four names to their 60-man player pool: Will Wilson, Camilo Doval, Luis Toribio and Chad Tromp, per Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports. It’s a group of fairly high-end prospects for the Giants, highlighted by Wilson, whom they essentially spent $12.6MM to acquire last year by taking on Zack Cozart’s contract, writes Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle. Catcher Chadwick Tromp has the best chance to train with the major league camp, as the others are more likely to head to the alternative camp when it opens in Sacramento, per Schulman. The Giants have four empty slots remaining from their 60-player pool.

EARLIER TODAY

The Orioles added Evan Phillips to their 60-man roster, per MASN’s Roch Kubatko. Baltimore gave themselves more leeway than most, however, and they still have 15 slots available on their 60-man roster. The Maryland native made 25 appearances out of the Orioles’ bullpen in 2019, pitching to a 6.43 ERA/3.96 FIP. Phillips joined the Baltimore organization from Atlanta as part of the Kevin Gausman/Darren O’Day trade from deadline day 2018.
The Phillies added two catchers to their 60-man roster, per Matt Breen of the Philadelphia Inquirer. Henri Lartigue and Logan O’Hoppe will bring the Phillies’ total number of catchers to five. Lartigue, 25, hit .136/.259/.248 in 78 games in Double-A last year. O’Hoppe, 20, went to the Phillies in the 23rd round of the 2018 draft. In Low-A in 2019, the New York native hit .216/.266/.407. The pair of catchers are presumably in camp to spread the defensive workload. J.T. Realmuto, Andrew Knapp, and Deivi Grullon are far better bets to see any game time once the season opens.

Freddie Freeman, Three Other Braves Test Positive For COVID-19

By TC Zencka | July 4, 2020 at 10:43am CDT

A quartet of Atlanta Braves tested positive for COVID-19: Freddie Freeman, Pete Kozma, Touki Toussaint, and Will Smith, per Sportscaster Kelly Crull. Though the teams do not have to release the names of the players who test positive for coronavirus, in this case, the players consented to have their names released in order to spread awareness.

Smith and Toussaint are asymptomatic at this time. Freeman tested negative upon intake, but started developing symptoms before workouts were to begin, per The Athletic’s David O’Brien. Since it appears Freeman caught the virus while at Braves’ camp, this will be an important situation to track.

Not to mention, it’s possibly a blow to the Braves on-field expectations for 2020. There’s no telling how severe a case Freeman is dealing with, and even after he’s back to full health, he’ll need to pass the new protocols to return to play. Freeman, 30, is the longest-tenured member of the Braves. When he made his debut in 2010, Chipper Jones, David Ross, Derek Lowe, Jason Heyward, Tim Hudson, Craig Kimbrel, and Brian McCann were still a part of the team.

Though it seems like he’s been around forever, Freeman still produces like a superstar. He hit .295/.389/.549 even while dealing with an elbow injury that sapped him of some power.

Smith, meanwhile, could return earlier if he remains asymptomatic, but it’s important to remember that anybody appearing without symptoms who test positive could simply be pre-symptomatic, at which point there’s no telling yet what kind of timetable for a return might be. Smith was to be an important piece of Atlanta’s bullpen after joining the club from San Francisco via free agency. As the Giants’ closer last year, Smith went 6-0 with 34 saves and a 2.76 ERA/3.23 FIP over 60 games.

Toussaint had an outside shot at winning a spot in the Atlanta bullpen, though he figured to join the big league club at some point during the season as he has in each of the past two campaigns. Kozma was to serve as a depth infield option after playing all of 2019 for the Tigers’ Triple-A club.

NL Notes: Camp Delays, Dodgers, Cardinals, Gallegos, Health Updates, Senzel, Hamels

By TC Zencka | July 4, 2020 at 9:40am CDT

Expect delayed arrivals to camp to become somewhat of a recurring story early in training camp as players attempt to clear the many hurdles to return to play. The Dodgers, for instance, will be missing a few players at the start of camp, though manager Dave Roberts wasn’t able to name specific players, per J.P. Hoornstra of the Southern California News Group. Likewise, the Cardinals will be missing reliever Giovanny Gallegos, who is delayed in his return from Mexico, per Anne Rogers of MLB.com. The Cardinals have not given a specific reason for his delay, per The Athletic’s Mark Saxon. Rather than speculate on reasons for the holdup, let’s check in on some health updates from around the league…

Nick Senzel’s had a banged-up rookie season, appearing in 104 games with a .256/.315/.427 slash – but he’s ready to go for his sophomore campaign. His first season ended early when a torn labrum required Senzel to get shoulder surgery. That injury is fully recovered now, but only just now, as Senzel reported having throwing pain as recently as a month ago, per Bobby Nightengale of The Enquirer. Senzel may not have a steady defensive home when play begins, but he figures to be an everyday presence in the Reds’ lineup regardless, especially with the DH now in play.
Cole Hamels was never going to get a full Spring Training, not once a shoulder injury took him out of commission for a few months. The 36-year-old knows that the four-week leadup to the newly-rebooted 2020 season isn’t exactly the same, not at his age, but he plans to be ready to contribute, per Mark Bradley of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution. Said Hamels: “It’s not as if I’m going to go out there expecting to pitch seven to nine innings. There’s going to be a gradual buildup process, and there’s going to be guys who will be able to piggyback on you, like in a high school or a college season. All that really matters is putting up zeroes. If you can put up two or put up five zeroes, that’s really helping the team, more so than (other pitchers) having to pick up and try to eat a lot of innings.”

Amateur Draft Signings: 6/27/20

By TC Zencka | June 27, 2020 at 9:19pm CDT

The latest draft signings…

Mid-Atlantic Notes: Orioles, Mountcastle, Diaz, Nationals

By TC Zencka | June 27, 2020 at 11:02am CDT

Keegan Akin, Ryan Mountcastle, Dean Kremer, and Bruce Zimmermann weren’t expected to make the Opening Day roster for the Baltimore Orioles, but with the first baseball of the season on the horizon, the Orioles have the chance to reevaluate, per MASN’s Roch Kubatko. The Orioles will have to balance service time concerns and the fear of rushing youngsters into an uncertain landscape with the stark fact that the game’s highest level is the only level available for competitive play this season. Prospects can continue to work out, either independently or as part of the 60-man extended rosters, but to get game reps, the majors is the only game in town. Mountcastle, coming off a .312/.344/.527 season in Triple-A, could find himself on the major-league roster, even if the Orioles would prefer – in a vacuum – to allow him more development time elsewhere.

Yusniel Diaz presents a similarly interesting case for the O’s, per Kubatko. Like Mountcastle, Diaz was expected to make his ML-debut at some point, but unlike Mountcastle, the Cuban outfielder has yet to appear higher than Double-A. Should they choose a more judicious approach, Baltimore can certainly make do with Anthony Santander, D.J. Stewart, Austin Hays, and Dwight Smith Jr. in the outfield. Still, every decision for the Orioles has to be made with the future in mind, and they’ll have to decide whether exposing someone like Diaz to major league pitching earlier than planned will benefit his long-term development. With Trey Mancini out for the year, there are plenty of at-bats to go around for corner outfield candidates.
Elsewhere in the Mid-Atlantic, if the Nationals can lean on their big four in the rotation as they did in last year’s postseason, everything should be hunky-dory for the champs, per Byron Kerr of MASN. Of course, Manager Davey Martinez put those boys through a grind last October, with Patrick Corbin pushed to the limit as a swingman, and Max Scherzer’s shoulder barely holding up long enough to get through game seven of the World Series in Houston. The long layoff should help Scherzer, Corbin, Stephen Strasburg, and Anibal Sanchez avoid a World Series hangover, but the bullpen looks stronger as well. They’ll get a full season from Daniel Hudson, won’t have to lean as hard on Sean Doolittle, and Will Harris joins the team from Houston to shore up the backend. Doolittle has been one of the more vocal ballplayers during the pandemic, but as of now, no Nats have decided to sit out the season.

The Most Stacked Lineup Of The Millennium Missed The Playoffs

By TC Zencka | June 27, 2020 at 10:21am CDT

With MVPs Cody Bellinger and Mookie Betts sharing a lineup with thumpers like Justin Turner, Max Muncy, and Corey Seager, the Los Angeles Dodgers lineup is stacked. That’s five players who have proved capable of posting 5-6 WAR seasons. We can even include A.J. Pollock in that group (6.8 fWAR in 2015) if we’re being generous – though it would open some eyes to see Pollack produce at that level again (even for a 60-game span). The ceiling hasn’t been set on youngsters like Will Smith and Gavin Lux, who could very well enter that elite territory with a best-case development future. There’s no denying that the Dodgers have a loaded lineup – but has there been a more MVP-loaded lineup in recent history?

The most stacked lineup of the last twenty years belongs to an 85-win, 3rd place St. Louis Cardinals team from 2003. “Most-stacked,” of course, isn’t exactly an official metric, so let me define it. Fangraphs explains fWAR in their glossary by classifying a “good player” as worth 3-4 fWAR, an “All-Star” to be worth 4-5 fWAR, and a “superstar” as worth 5-6 fWAR. But for the “most-stacked” lineup, we want the cream of the crop. Fangraphs classifies MVPs as those worth 6+ fWAR in a given season, so I went looking for the lineup with the most “MVPs”, and I found the unequivocal champ with the 2003 St. Louis Cardinals.

Not only did the Cardinals carry four MVP-caliber bats that season, but they’re the only team since 2000 to accomplish that feat. There have been four other teams since 2000 with three bats in the lineup worth 6+ fWAR (2004 Orioles, 2003 Braves, 2004 Cardinals, 2011 Red Sox) – but only Tony La Russa’s Cardinals fielded a quartet of such players.

Albert Pujols (9.5 fWAR), Jim Edmonds (6.3 fWAR), Edgar Renteria (6.3 fWAR), and Scott Rolen (6.2 fWAR) each put up an “MVP-like” seasons in 2003. The 23-year-old Pujols would have been a shoo-in to snag the actual NL MVP, but that was the era of supernova Barry Bonds, who won his third of four consecutive MVPs (10.2 fWAR) that season.

The Cardinals finished 5th in the majors in runs scored with 876, second in total fWAR on offense, fourth in wRC+. J.D. Drew, Tino Martinez, and Bo Hart were productive members of the lineup, So Taguchi gave them 59 plate appearances with a 109 wRC+, and Eduardo Perez (122 wRC+) was a successful power bat off the bench. Only at catcher did they really struggle offensively, where Mike Matheny hit .252/.320/.356 to total 0.4 fWAR while starting 121 games behind the dish. In short, the offense did its part.

Unfortunately, the entirety of the Cardinals pitching staff mustered just 7.3 fWAR. They finished 19th in ERA, 22nd in FIP, and 26th in home runs per nine innings. The bullpen was a particular disaster, finishing the season dead last in the majors with -1.8 fWAR. The rotation boasted legitimate arms in Woody Williams, Matt Morris, and less so, Brett Tomko. Dan Haren made an okay major league debut with 14 starts and a 5.08 ERA/4.57 FIP.

That said, they could have done without the 55 starts from Garrett Stephenson, in what would be his last dash as an MLB hurler, Sterling Hitchcock in his second-to-last season, 40-year-old Jeff Fassero, and Jason Simontacchi, who was coming off a surprisingly decent rookie season at age-28.

Giving 34 percent of their starts to suboptimal contributors didn’t pave the runway for the bullpen to take flight, but the relief crew struggled all their own. In particular, the main culprits were (again) Fassero (56 games, 6.52 ERA/6.13 FIP), Dustin Hermanson (23 games, 5.46 ERA/5.49 FIP), Russ Springer (17 games, 8.31 ERA/8.97 FIP), and Esteban Yan (39 games, 6.02 ERA/5.59 FIP). It didn’t help that injuries limited closer Jason Isringhausen to 40 games and 22 saves. He would otherwise anchor the Cardinals’ bullpens of that era.

The 2003 Cardinals paint a picture of the difficulties in team-building. Four monster seasons making up half their everyday lineup, and still the Cardinals only managed to eke out a third-place finish. They underperformed their Pythagorean record, but only by three wins. The Cubs won the division with exactly 88 wins, overperforming their Pythagorean record by – you guessed it – three wins.

Things can go right – so right – in any given season, and it still might not be enough to counterbalance what goes wrong. That’s not to say that the 2020 Dodgers are in trouble – but their spot in the postseason is hardly assured. The ’03 Cardinals had the most MVP-level bats of any team in the past 20 years, and yet it was only enough for 85 wins. The margin for error will only be smaller in a short season.

Of course, here’s the other funny little part of baseball. Pujols/Rolen/Edmonds/Renteria couldn’t power their way to the postseason in 2003, but the foundation in St. Louis was solid. They did reach the postseason in 2002, 2004, 2005, and 2006. La Russa’s Cardinals capped off the run with a World Series title. That season, they finished with 83 wins, one less than the “disappointment” their stacked lineup produced in 2003.

So the most-stacked lineup of the millennium missed the playoffs, and the “worst” division winner of the millennium won the World Series. If that’s not a good primer for the chaos to come in a short season, I don’t know what is.

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