- The Yankees checked back in with the Orioles on Manny Machado this week, per FanRag’s Jon Heyman, but the O’s have yet to receive an offer from any team that is close to what they’d hope to receive for Machado. The Yankees remain interested in Machado, though, believing that they have a legitimate chance to sign him long-term (even without an extension window being granted). The O’s reportedly want a pair of MLB-ready pitchers for Machado, though Heyman notes that third base prospect Miguel Andujar intrigues Baltimore to some degree. For now, Andujar is viewed as the Yankees’ starter at third base, though Heyman adds that the Yanks are exploring a number of avenues in the infield; in addition to Machado, they’ve shown interest in the Pirates’ Josh Harrison and are keeping tabs on the free-agent market in case Todd Frazier’s asking price drops to one year.
- “Too many people” are assuming that Chance Sisco is a lock to open the year as the Orioles’ starting catcher, reports MASNsports.com’s Roch Kubatko. (I’m guilty as charged on that front, having referenced him as the likely starter on multiple occasions.) Per Kubatko, 26-year-old Austin Wynns has a “legitimate” chance to break camp with the team thanks largely to his defensive prowess. If that happens, then the O’s would seemingly take Wynns and Caleb Joseph north to open the year while giving Sisco additional development time in Triple-A Norfolk. The O’s are also still in the market for a veteran catcher, which could prove to be either a starting-caliber option or a backup to vie for a spot alongside Sisco and Wynns. Kubatko notes that some in the organization are intrigued by the Marlins’ J.T. Realmuto, though it’s difficult to imagine the O’s coming up with the type of package that’d beat the field for Realmuto when Miami has been targeting pitching prospects in other trades.
Orioles Rumors
Tyler Wilson Signs With KBO’s LG Twins
Former Orioles righty Tyler Wilson has signed a one-year deal with the LG Twins of the Korea Baseball Organization, the team announced (via Jee-ho Yoo of South Korea’s Yonhap News Agency). The Meister Sports Management client will take home $800K on a one-year deal, per Yoo.
The 28-year-old Wilson has spent parts of the past three seasons with the Orioles, totaling 145 1/3 innings but struggling to a 5.02 ERA with 4.8 K/9, 2.4 BB/9 and an average fastball velocity of 89.9 mph in that time. Wilson showed promising ground-ball tendencies early in his MLB career and was adept at avoiding homers as well, but both of those trends rapidly went in the wrong direction with more exposure to big league hitters.
Those struggles led to a September DFA for Wilson in Baltimore, after which he was outrighted to Triple-A Norfolk. He elected to become a free agent at season’s end following his removal from the 40-man roster.
Wilson does carry a considerably more successful track record in Triple-A, where he’s logged a 3.99 ERA with 6.5 K/9 and 2.3 BB/9 across 302 innings in parts of four seasons. He’ll now earn considerably move overseas than he’d have taken home had he remained in North America on a minor league deal.
Arbitration Breakdown: Manny Machado
Over the next few days, I will be discussing some of the higher profile upcoming arbitration cases. I rely partly on my arbitration model developed exclusively for MLB Trade Rumors, but will also break out some interesting comparables and determine where the model might be wrong. 2018 arbitration projections are available right here.
Manny Machado had an off year this past season. His .259 average was well below his .284 career number. Unlike many other players this past season, he did not even set his personal home run record. He only had 33, slightly less than his totals for 2015 and 2016. However, with 95 RBI and 9 SB to tack onto his totals, Machado is projected for a $5.8 million raise up to a total salary of $17.3 million.
Part of the problem with determining the accuracy of the model in Machado’s case is something that will affect a great number of cases this year—the high home run level in the league. This past season set a league record with 6,105 total home runs—this was 26 percent higher than the average from the last five years. So when I look at players with similar totals over the last five years, it is unclear whether an arbitration panel (or teams and agents that are negotiating in the shadow of what an arbitration panel would say) would treat home runs from Machado as similar to other players with the same number as home runs, or as someone with maybe 26 percent fewer home runs. My model does not adjust for league run environment in this way; in general the data has shown that run environment is not a big consideration in arbitration. Hitters in high scoring years benefit from being compared to hitters in lower scoring years, and pitchers in low scoring years benefit from being compared to pitchers in high scoring years.
For example, Chase Headley in 2013 is probably a decent comparable, even if his case is a little stale. He hit 31 HR with 115 RBI and batted .286, which bests Machado in AVG and RBI, but is similar to his HR total. With a $5.1 million raise, which would probably be somewhere between $6 and $6.5 million if we adjust for salary inflation, Headley could serve as a solid analog to Machado. However, if we think of Machado’s 33 HR as more like the equivalent of 25 HR in 2013, then Machado should clearly get less than Headley’s inflation-adjusted raise.
If we want a more recent comparable, we might want to consider Todd Frazier last year, who hit .225/40/98. With the league only experiencing a nine percent increase in HR relative to last year, Frazier might be a more legitimate comparable. He clearly had more HR, but a worse average. He only got a $3.75 million raise, which may suggest that the $5.8 million raise projected for Machado is too high.
Eric Hosmer hit .266/25/104 last year, so he could be a solid comparable as well. He received a $4 million raise, again far less than Machado’s projection. Of course, Hosmer is probably a floor with similar AVG and RBI and notably fewer HR. So maybe we want to consider Machado getting something north of $4 million.
I think it makes sense to view Hosmer’s raise as a floor on Machado, especially because of the large difference in defensive skill. While defense does not appear to make a big impact on arbitration at the model level, it obviously can in some cases. I would guess that it helps Machado move towards a raise closer to $5 million. That would still fall short of his projection, but probably puts him in striking distance of somewhere around $16-17 million.
Orioles Still Eyeing Veteran Catchers
- Rich Dubroff of PressBoxOnline.com examines whether the Orioles might roll with young catcher Chance Sisco out of camp. Baltimore is still looking at veterans, though it seems the organization is resolved to rely primarily upon Caleb Joseph if Sisco doesn’t run away with the job. Assuming that any players acquired from outside the organization are mostly reserve/depth options, it could well come down to a camp battle. As Dubroff writes, the MLB coaching staff has not yet had an extended opportunity to see Sisco in action.
Orioles Notes: Machado, Free Agent SPs, Schoop
- With the Red Sox still interested in acquiring Orioles third baseman/shortstop Manny Machado, Ian Browne of MLB.com weighs in on a potential trade between the AL East rivals. Browne senses that the Red Sox don’t want to trade either shortstop Xander Bogaerts or center fielder Jackie Bradley Jr. this offseason, but he concedes that it wouldn’t be a surprise to see the former head to Baltimore as part of a Machado deal. The Red Sox would be losing two years of Bogaerts for a single season of control over Machado. As such, if Boston acquires Machado, it would make an aggressive push to re-up the superstar in order to prevent him from leaving as a free agent next winter, Browne adds.
- The Orioles still face a difficult path, all the more so given that the team will evidently be paying Zach Britton a full arbitration salary for what might be little more than a half season of work. Jon Meoli of the Baltimore Sun writes that, while the rotation market still hasn’t moved much, some of the arms from Baltimore’s potential target demographic are among those that have found new teams. Meanwhile, Steve Melewski of MASNsports.com considers the question of whether the team will look to make second baseman Jonathan Schoop a part of a new long-term core — and, if so, how much it might cost to get something done.
Orioles Face More Competition Than Usual In Pursuit Of Late Moves
- The Orioles have historically been willing to wait out the free-agent market in search of bargains late in the winter, but they’ll have more company than usual in that regard this year, writes Jon Meoli of the Baltimore Sun. Baltimore GM Dan Duquette and his staff have had varying degrees of success in that regard, striking gold with a February signing of Nelson Cruz but also issuing regrettable deals to Yovani Gallardo and Ubaldo Jimenez. This time around, the Orioles will be looking to fill multiple spots in their rotation in addition to a left-handed bat. But, with just a handful of the top MLB free agents having agreed to deals, Baltimore’s typically patient approach may not be as fruitful as it has in the past.
Orioles Have Reportedly Made Offer To Ji-Man Choi
- First baseman Ji-Man Choi’s agency in Korea recently spoke to the media about their client’s current foray into free agency and revealed that he’s received offers (presumably of the minor league variety) from the Yankees, Angels, Rays, A’s, Brewers, Marlins, Cubs, Reds, Orioles, Twins, Braves, Blue Jays and White Sox (English link via Jee-ho Yoo of South Korea’s Yonhap News Agency). The 26-year-old Choi slugged a pair of homers in 18 plate appearances with the Yankees last year and posted a strong year with their Triple-A affiliate, slashing .288/.373/.538 in 87 games. In parts of five Triple-A campaigns, Choi has posted a robust .298/.390/.479 batting line.
Latest On Manny Machado, Orioles' Search For Lefty Bat
The Red Sox are “showing continued trade interest” in star Orioles infielder Manny Machado, per MLB Network’s Jon Morosi (via Twitter). That said, it’s unclear just how strong a connection there may be between the division rivals. While not specifically referencing Morosi’s report, Rob Bradford of WEEI.com tweets that interest from Boston has been “overstated.” Overall, it’s hard to assess the current state of the Machado market; while a variety of organizations are no doubt still intrigued at the idea of a deal, there’s no real indication that there have been changes in the offers or the asking price.
- Regardless of what happens with Machado, the Orioles are still in need of a lefty bat, Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com writes. He explains that it still seems more likely the missing southpaw stick will arrive in the form of a corner outfielder. While the organization has engaged in “internal discussions” regarding Jon Jay, says Kubatko, it does not seem there’s real interest there. At this point, though, it does not seem as if there’s any real indication at all which way the O’s may go.
Orioles Notes: Machado, Straily
The Orioles “continue to hear from multiple teams interested in trading for Manny Machado,” tweets Jon Morosi of MLB Network, who doesn’t believe the club has a firm deadline on trade talks for their star infielder. As Dan Connolly of BaltimoreBaseball.com wrote six days ago, “These incremental updates are white noise.” Unfortunately, that’s all we’ve got right now! Connolly’s best guess at that time: Machado will be traded before Opening Day. For now, we’ll continue to wait for the hot stove to light.
- MLB.com’s Joe Frisaro tackles questions from Marlins fans in his latest inbox. As of now, Frisaro expects Christian Yelich and J.T. Realmuto to be back with the team next year, though the team is “open to listening on everyone.” He notes that the Orioles are “known to have interest” in 29-year-old righty Dan Straily, who is under team control through 2020. Clearly, there is no urgency for the Marlins to deal controllable, affordable players like these.
Quick Hits: Astros, Machado, Hamilton
In a dramatic and suspenseful article, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic chronicles the recent harrowing life-or-death race to get Astros first base coach Rich Dauer to Houston Methodist Hospital. On the day of the Astros’ championship parade, Dauer was present at the official ceremony to honor the team. He began to stagger as if drunk, and stepped to the back of the stage. From there, a panicked attempt to get Dauer to the hospital amidst a crowd of millions of people unfolded behind the scenes. The piece is incredibly well-written, and thankfully has a happy ending. It’s definitely worth a full read.
More from around MLB as we approach the end of December…
- Jon Meoli of the Baltimore Sun wonders if this offseason’s drama surrounding Orioles star Manny Machado could have been avoided. Meoli takes a look at the chances the Orioles had to explore trades or a contract extension with their prized third baseman, but he ultimately comes to the conclusion that there was never a reason to trade him until now. It also seems as though by the time Machado was a safe fixture in the O’s lineup, his value was sky-high, and he was close enough to free agency that an extension didn’t make sense for him (or his agent). While it remains to be seen whether Baltimore will actually end up dealing Machado, Meoli’s piece sheds some light on a tough set of circumstances for the Orioles.
- The Giants and Reds have remained active in talks about a trade that would send Billy Hamilton to San Francisco, according to Jon Morosi of MLB.com. The Reds have reportedly shown interest in Heliot Ramos, who is largely considered to be the Giants’ best prospect (he credits The Athletic with first report of this news). Hamilton, of course, is regarded as one of the best defenders in the game, and also creates a lot of runs with his speed alone. His career .298 on-base percentage is widely regarded as his achilles heel, but he could still provide plenty of value as an elite center fielder in AT&T Park’s spacious outfield. A couple months back, I wrote about the trade market for Hamilton, noting that the Giants were the best match for his services.
