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Quick Hits: Int’l Market, Mets, Soto, Mateo, Rays, Yankees

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Roki Sasaki’s impending move to Major League Baseball will have a big impact on the offseason pitching market, but plenty of shockwaves will be felt throughout the international signing market.  Baseball America’s Ben Badler recently outlined how several other prospects will be affected if Sasaki’s 45-day posting window stretches beyond January 15 and the start of the next international signing period.  If Sasaki doesn’t sign until after January 15, teams will have to use funds from their 2025 signing pools to sign him, rather than their 2024 pools.  The 2024 signing period closes on December 15, further narrowing the window of time for Sasaki and an MLB team to finalize a contract.

Since it seems likely Sasaki will indeed still be unsigned by January 15, Badler observes that multiple teams could end up putting their plans for the next signing period entirely on hold until the right-hander makes his decision.  This means that the many prospects already committed to these teams on unofficial deals will be in limbo, and the club that finally lands Sasaki is likely to walk away from those pre-existing handshake deals if it means landing the Japanese star.  It would leave that team’s set of international prospects suddenly looking to land elsewhere, and potentially other clubs’ prospects might also walk away from their agreements if nothing is finalized on January 15.  As Badler notes, teams that aren’t in the running for Sasaki could benefit in swooping in to sign some extra prospects in the aftermath.

The entire situation adds a lot of extra drama to what is normally a fairly routine day on the calendar, as clubs have had these deals with these young January 15th prospects worked out years in advance, sometimes when the players are barely teenagers.  Needless to say, it creates a lot of disruption for the players, their families, and their trainers who helped arrange the signings, as what looked like safe pre-arranged windfalls might now be in question.  As much as Sasaki may have a higher clear upside than an entire bonus pool’s worth of international prospects, abandoning a January 15th class could create some hard feelings for a team in their future int’l dealings.

More from around the baseball world…

  • The meeting between Juan Soto and the Mets took place this past Saturday, with the New York Post’s Jon Heyman reporting that Mets owner Steve Cohen, president of baseball operations David Stearns, and manager Carlos Mendoza all in attendance to provide a “very detailed” presentation to the star slugger.  Soto is set to next meet with the Yankees on Monday, and he has previously met with the Blue Jays and Red Sox in these early stages of his free agent adventure.  It isn’t expected that Soto will be signing any time soon, as these initial meetings could be more about laying groundwork than putting any actual offers on the table.
  • Orioles GM Mike Elias told reporters (including MASNsports.com’s Roch Kubatko) that Jorge Mateo is expected “to have a very full, if not a 162, something close to that season” in the aftermath of a UCL brace procedure last August.  Kubatko’s impression was that the Orioles have Mateo in their plans for 2025, which lowers the possibility that the infielder could be cut loose in advance of the November 22 non-tender deadline.  Mateo is projected for a $3.2MM arbitration salary, and fits as a non-tender candidate considering between his injury, subpar offense, and the crowded Baltimore infield picture.  The O’s could be an interesting team to watch this week in advance of both the non-tender deadline and Tuesday’s deadline to set 40-man rosters in advance of the Rule 5 Draft, as Baltimore could potentially move an infielder or two off the roster in trades.
  • With the Rays set to use George M. Steinbrenner Field as their home for the 2025 season, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times looks at several details involved in the plan.  A lot has naturally yet to be determined, though Topkin answers some questions ranging from team-centric issues like clubhouses and training amenities to fan-related details like how tickets and parking will be managed.  One interesting wrinkle is the fact that the Rays are expected to host playoff games as per usual should the team make the postseason, which creates the awkward potential scenario of the Rays hosting the Yankees in the Yankees’ own Spring Training facility.

Don Ferrarese Passes Away

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Former big league lefty Don Ferrarese passed away earlier this month. He was 95.

Ferrarese was an Oakland native who attended Saint Mary’s in the Bay Area. He began his minor league career in 1948. It took seven seasons for the southpaw to reach the majors with the Orioles. He briefly appeared in the big leagues at age 25 in 1955. Ferrarese worked in a swing capacity for the next couple years. Baltimore traded him to the Indians early in the ’58 season in a deal that netted future All-Star southpaw Bud Daley (whom the O’s would trade to the A’s weeks later).

After one season in Cleveland, Ferrarese was on the move again. The Indians dealt him to the White Sox in a six-player swap. Ferrarese logged limited action with the Phillies and Cardinals before the end of his playing career in 1962. He pitched for five teams over an eight-year MLB run. Ferrarese turned in an even 4.00 earned run average across 506 2/3 innings. He started 50 of 183 appearances, won 19 games and recorded 350 strikeouts. MLBTR sends our condolences to Ferrarese’s family and friends.

Orioles Talking To “High-End” Free Agent Pitchers; Camden Yards’ Left Field Dimensions To Be Changed

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Orioles general manager Mike Elias took part in a video call with reporters (including the Baltimore Sun’s Matt Weyrich, MASNsports.com’s Roch Kubatko, and MLB.com’s Jake Rill) today, sharing a few guarded details about the club’s offseason pursuits and a major development for Camden Yards’ outfield dimensions.  Elias revealed that the ballpark will have a new left field wall that will be significantly shorter and closer to home plate than the wall that has been in place for the last three seasons.

The old wall will remain in place, stretching from the 373-foot mark in the left field crevice and extending to the Orioles’ bullpen.  However, an unoccupied open area will now sit between the wall and the new left field wall, which Elias said will be closer to home plate by “as much as 20 feet; in others, it’ll be more like 11 feet and as little as nine.”  The deepest distance from home plate to the left-center area of the old wall was 398 feet, but that distance will now be a more manageable 376 feet.  The old wall was also 13 feet high, whereas the new wall’s height will range from 6’11” at its shortest to nine feet tall at its highest.

“Our hope is, by pulling the dimensions in a little bit…that we will be able to get closer to what our initial goal was: a neutral playing environment that assists a balanced style of play at a park that was overly homer-friendly prior to our changes in 2022.  It is now a little overly skewed given what we did back then,” Elias said.

Heightening the wall back in 2022 happened to coincide with a big improvement in the Orioles’ play, as the team has since reeled off three straight winning seasons (and two playoff appearances) due to a marked upgrade in pitching performance.  Baltimore’s 3.94 team ERA ranks tenth in baseball over the last three seasons, and the pitching staff has allowed the ninth-fewest homers (523) of any club in that same span.

According to Statcast’s Park Factor metric, righty batters had more trouble hitting homers at Camden Yards than at almost any other ballpark, save for Cleveland’s Progressive Field and Pittsburgh’s PNC Park.  Unfortunately, this extended to the Orioles’ own batters as well as opposing hitters.  As Rill breaks down the numbers, the Orioles lost more home runs (72) than opponents (65) did at Camden Yards since Opening Day 2022.

“I think it’ll be easier for right-handed hitters to produce power numbers at this park, there’s no question about it.  We wanted, and we want, a park that is neutral, tilting toward pitcher friendliness,” Elias said.  “But, the disparities between the two sides of the park were not the intent, and it had created some dramatic differences and it affected player personnel thought and outcomes in a way that we weren’t anticipating when we made the move.”

Three years of data has now convinced Elias that the past renovations “overcorrected” the initial problem of Camden Yards being too homer-friendly.  Elias made a point of noting that the dimensions weren’t being changed to make it easier for the O’s to attract free agent hitters (particularly right-handed bats), as the GM said that the 2022 alterations weren’t intended as a “permanent” fix in the first place.

“In many ways this may make the park less attractive for pitchers, which is one of the reasons that I initially made this change,” Elias said.

The timing is interesting, as the rotation is certainly a key need for the Orioles this winter.  Corbin Burnes is a free agent and the top arm available on the open market (in the view of MLBTR’s Top 50 Free Agents list and many other pundits), leaving Baltimore with a projected top four of Grayson Rodriguez, Zach Eflin, Dean Kremer, and Albert Suarez in the starting five.  Cade Povich and Trevor Rogers are among the candidates vying for the fifth starters’ job at the moment and Kyle Bradish or Tyler Wells could emerge when or if they recover from UCL surgeries at some point in 2025, but there’s no doubt that this pitching staff could use some reinforcement.

To this end, Elias said the Orioles are considering “the whole spectrum” of pitching upgrades.  “If you’re running the team optimally….you’re certainly wanting to keep the whole menu of player acquisition open.  That involves high-end free agent deals over many years.  We’ve been engaged in those conversations already.”

It has been widely expected that the O’s have a higher spending capacity under new owner David Rubenstein than in past years when the Angelos family was controlling the team.  Elias gave “credit [to] the ownership change for putting us in the position to” at least check in at every level of the market, though he again stressed that more payroll flexibility doesn’t mean the Orioles are going to suddenly “spend money indiscriminately this offseason come hell or high water.”

Baltimore has already been linked to Max Fried in early free agent pursuits, as well as interest in White Sox southpaw Garrett Crochet on the trade front.  It can be assumed that the Orioles will consider a reunion with Burnes, even if that would likely be the priciest possible way to add to the rotation.  Since Burnes’ departure would recoup the Orioles a compensatory draft pick, the team could opt to let Burnes walk to gain that draft capital, thus perhaps making the O’s more comfortable about surrendering picks if they signed a qualifying offer-rejecting free agent of their own.

Orioles To Add Sherman Johnson To MLB Coaching Staff

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The Orioles are promoting Sherman Johnson to the major league coaching staff, writes Andy Kostka of the Baltimore Banner. The 34-year-old will work alongside hitting coach Cody Asche and assistant hitting coach Tommy Joseph on the offensive side. Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com suggested this morning that a promotion for Johnson could be in the cards.

It’ll be Johnson’s first work on an MLB staff. He has moved very quickly up the coaching ranks. He was playing professionally in the independent American Association as recently as 2022. A Florida State product, he had a nine-year minor league career. Johnson briefly reached the big leagues as a member of the Angels in 2018. He went hitless in 10 at-bats. A lefty batter, he showed good plate discipline with minimal power in the minors.

Johnson didn’t move into coaching until 2023. Baltimore hired him as a hitting instructor with their Double-A team in Bowie. He spent this past season as a minor league hitting coordinator. It seems he built a quick rapport with a number of the O’s prospects. Johnson coached Jackson Holliday, Heston Kjerstad and Coby Mayo with Bowie and should get to work with them again at Camden Yards.

Baltimore has opted for a fairly inexperienced group of hitting instructors. Asche, also 34, is a lead hitting coach for the first time after two years as an assistant on Brandon Hyde’s staff. Joseph, 33, is going into his second season as an MLB coach. He spent this year with the Mariners in an assistant role.

Red Sox To Name Chris Holt Bullpen Coach

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Former Orioles pitching director Chris Holt has reached an agreement to become the Red Sox’ new bullpen coach, reports Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com. Holt has already received a formal offer, and the hiring could become official next week, per Kubatko.

Holt departed Baltimore’s staff at the end of the season as the organization underwent a coaching overhaul in the wake of a limp to the finish line and a second consecutive quick postseason exit. He was one of several coaches/instructors to be replaced, joining hitting coaches Ryan Fuller and Matt Borgschulte.

Baltimore general manager Mike Elias was familiar with Holt from the pair’s time together in the Astros organization. He hired Holt away as the Orioles’ new minor league pitching coordinator in 2019. Holt rose to the title of major league pitching coach and was eventually bumped up even further, being tasked with overseeing the entire organization’s pitching practice. Holt held those roles concurrently in an effort to form a cohesive top-down vision throughout the team’s big league staff and pitching development efforts.

Holt will join the Red Sox staff with a narrower focus in his responsibilities. He’ll join a revamped pitching practice in Boston that began when Craig Breslow, a former big league reliever who’s entering his second season as the team’s chief baseball officer, hired former Sox reliever Andrew Bailey away from the Giants to serve as the club’s new pitching coach. Holt will also work closely with another Breslow hire from last offseason: Red Sox director of pitching Justin Willard (the same role Holt held in Baltimore and that Breslow himself held with the Cubs before landing the top job in Boston).

Holt fills a role that was vacated when the Sox dismissed six coaches, including bullpen coach Kevin Walker, at season’s end. Walker had been in place since being hired by former chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom back in 2020.

Nick Pivetta Unlikely To Accept Qualifying Offer

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Red Sox right-hander Nick Pivetta was one of the more surprising recipients of a $21.05MM qualifying offer earlier this month, but he’s likely to reject the offer in search of a multi-year deal, reports ESPN’s Jeff Passan, who suggests that “at least” a three-year deal should be waiting for the righty, who’s heading into his age-32 season. Passan lists the Orioles, Cubs and Braves as potential landing spots.

Anything more than a three-year deal for Pivetta would register as a surprise and something of a precedent-breaker. In the past ten offseasons, only four pitchers have commanded a contract of four or more years when signing ahead of their age-32 season or later (link via MLBTR’s Contract Tracker): Jacob deGrom (five years, $185MM starting at age 35), Hyun Jin Ryu (four years, $80MM starting at 33), Zack Greinke (six years, $206.5MM starting at 32) and James Shields (four years, $75MM starting at 33).

Solid as Pivetta is, he doesn’t have the track record of any of those four pitchers. When healthy, deGrom has been the best pitcher on the planet. Ryu signed his four-year deal after a Cy Young runner-up. Greinke was opting out of a six-year, $147MM deal with the Dodgers and was one of the game’s best pitchers at the time he signed his six-year deal with Arizona. Shields was a clear No. 1 or 2 starter, having pitched 933 innings over the prior four seasons — 233 per year — with a 3.17 ERA and strong strikeout and walk rates.

Pivetta doesn’t have that sort of resume, though his high-end strikeout and walk rates have made him a candidate for a quietly strong deal. When preparing for our annual top 50 free agent rankings, we felt a three-year deal in the $14-17MM annual range was possible for Pivetta — at least before he received a qualifying offer. The right-hander has never turned in a sub-4.00 ERA campaign, but that’s largely due to a regular susceptibility to home runs, something that another club might feel can be curbed or improved with a tweak in mechanics, approach or pitch selection. Pivetta is durable, misses bats at a premium level and has improved his command three years running. He ranked 10th among 126 big league pitchers (min. 100 innings) in terms of his K-BB% this season (22.9%).

It still seems feasible that a three-year deal could be there, but suggesting anything more feels like a stretch, unless multiple teams feel Pivetta is untapped as a potential No. 1-2 starter and is willing to ignore historical norms for pitchers in this age bracket. That could well be the case, but Passan opines that Pivetta “is looking at one of the biggest deals of the winter for a starter,” which would surprise plenty of onlookers. That’s a subjective sentence, but no one expects Pivetta to top Corbin Burnes, Max Fried, Blake Snell and Jack Flaherty, while others like Sean Manaea and Yusei Kikuchi should have greater per-year earning power on a three- or four-year contract.

Time will tell where the bidding lands, but the more immediate takeaway is that Pivetta apparently doesn’t feel inclined to lock in a one-year deal that would more than double his career earnings. That speaks to the strength of the market he and his agents at CAA are finding for his services thus far.

Orioles, Vimael Machin Agree To Minor League Deal

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The Orioles are signing infielder Vimael Machin to a minor league deal with an invitation to spring training, reports ESPN’s Jorge Castillo. The former A’s infielder spent the past two seasons playing in the Mexican League and last appeared in a big league game during the 2022 season. Machin is a client of Usus Sports Management.

Machin, 31, was the Athletics’ Rule 5 pick out of the Cubs organization back in 2019. He held a roster spot in the shortened 2020 season, tallying 74 plate appearances, and picked up another 15 MLB plate appearances in 2021. Machin’s career-high workload in the majors came in 2022, when Oakland plugged him into 73 games and gave him 253 turns at the plate. He’s shown strong discipline in the majors, walking at a 10% clip, but Machin is just a .208/.290/.261 hitter overall.

That tepid production has come in a sample of 361 plate appearances across three seasons, but Machin has been much better in the upper minors. He’s a career .291/.384/.439 hitter in parts of five Triple-A campaigns and just last year posted a ridiculous-looking .401/.495/.579 slash in 85 games with los Charros de Jalisco in Mexico. (As evidenced by that line, the Mexican League is an overwhelmingly hitter-friendly setting — even more so than the Triple-A Pacific Coast League.)

Machin has played all four infield positions extensively. He’s spent the most time at third base (3810 innings) but also has more than 2000 innings at second base, more than 1000 at first base and another 935 innings at shortstop. He’s a left-handed bat with excellent plate discipline (12.8% walk rate in Triple-A) and strong bat-to-ball skills (15.3% strikeout rate in Triple-A; 18.6% in the majors).

Baltimore obviously has a crowded infield already, with Gunnar Henderson, Jordan Westburg, Jackson Holliday, Coby Mayo, Ryan Mountcastle, Ryan O’Hearn and Ramon Urias all mixing in at various spots. Machin adds some experienced depth to stash in Triple-A and an option to compete for a roster spot if a combination of injuries and trades thins out Baltimore’s enviable stash of infielders at some point.

Blue Jays, Orioles, Red Sox Interested In Max Fried

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Left-hander Max Fried is one of the top pitchers available in free agency this offseason. The Blue Jays are one of the clubs with interest, per Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet. Fried is also connected to the Jays by Jon Heyman of The New York Post, alongside the Orioles and Red Sox. Heyman also mentions that Yankees have checked in with Fried, as well as guys like Corbin Burnes, Blake Snell, Sean Manaea, Anthony Santander and Pete Alonso, but all of those are framed as secondary to their goal of bringing Juan Soto back to the Bronx. For Boston, they have interest in another lefty starter, with Sean McAdam of MassLive reporting they are involved with Garrett Crochet of the White Sox. On the Fenway Rundown podcast (X link), McAdam also identifies the Orioles, Padres and Dodgers as key contenders for Crochet.

Fried, 31 in January, has tossed 884 1/3 innings for Atlanta in his career. In that time, he allowed 3.07 earned runs per nine. His 23.9% career strikeout rate and 6.8% walk rate are both a bit better than average while his 54.4% ground ball rate is quite strong. Among pitchers with at least 850 innings tossed from 2017 to 2024, only Framber Valdez, Logan Webb and Marcus Stroman had a higher ground ball rate than Fried. Of those four, Fried had the highest strikeout rate in that stretch while only Webb had a lower walk rate.

The lefty has also been fairly durable in that time. From 2019 to 2024, he made 11 starts in the shortened 2020 campaign and tossed at least 165 innings in each full season of that stretch except for 2023. Fried has also added another 67 postseason innings as Atlanta has been a fixture of the playoffs during his career. A forearm strain did limited him to 14 starts in 2023, which is perhaps a concern. An inflamed nerve in that same forearm caused him to miss a few starts in 2024 as well, but he was still able to take the ball 29 times and log 174 1/3 innings with a 3.25 ERA.

Atlanta gave Fried a qualifying offer that he is sure to reject while looking for a notable long-term pact. MLBTR’s recent Top 50 Free Agents post predicted Fried for a $156MM deal over six years, the third pitcher on the list behind Burnes and Snell.

Given his track record of success, he’s sure to be popular in the coming weeks and months. It was reported earlier this week that the Jays are planning to pursue starting pitching. They have three established veterans in their rotation, with José Berríos, Kevin Gausman and Chris Bassitt all under contract for next year. Bowden Francis has seemingly earned a gig as well after he posted a 1.80 ERA over his final 11 appearances in 2024.

They have Yariel Rodríguez and Jake Bloss as options for the #5 spot but there’s sense in adding depth. Rodríguez also pitched out of the bullpen at times in 2024 and could be pushed there to begin next year. Bloss only has three big league starts and hasn’t pitched much in the minors either, so having him on optional assignment would make sense. Alek Manoah could theoretically be back in the mix but likely not until late in the year, as he underwent UCL surgery in June.

RosterResource estimates the Jays are about $20MM shy of last year’s payroll, though they could non-tender some of their nine arbitration-eligible players to give themselves more room. Team president Mark Shapiro has indicated that he doesn’t expect the club’s spending to deviate significantly from last year. Giving Fried $26MM per year or something close to it would seemingly use up a decent chunk of their spending power. They also have needs on the infield, in the outfield and in the bullpen. The trade market could help in some of those areas but they will have to assess how to direct their resources in addressing multiple parts of the roster.

The Baltimore rotation just took a big hit as Burnes became a free agent, leaving them with Zach Eflin, Grayson Rodriguez and Dean Kremer as their front three. Kyle Bradish had Tommy John surgery in June and can’t be counted on for a while. Guys like Trevor Rogers or Albert Suárez could fill out the back but there’s sense in pursuing upgrades. Rogers struggled after being acquired from the Marlins while Suárez is a 35-year-old journeyman. Prospects like Chayce McDermott and Cade Povich haven’t yet been established in the major leagues.

The major question for the Orioles this offseason is what their true spending power is. It has now been over six years since they have given a multi-year deal to any free agent. Their four-year deal for Alex Cobb in March of 2018 was the last time they went beyond a one-year pact on the open market, as shown on MLBTR’s Contract Tracker.

Now that their rebuild is long done and David Rubenstein’s purchase of the club has become official, the general expectation is that the O’s will break that streak. But that could come in various forms, such as a two-year deal for someone like Nathan Eovaldi or a three- or four-year pact for someone like Manaea. It’s difficult to say right now whether they plan to be aggressive enough to land someone like Fried or perhaps re-sign Burnes.

For the Red Sox, chief baseball officer Craig Breslow recently said that the club plans to “raise the ceiling” in the rotation. They have a core group of Tanner Houck, Brayan Bello and Kutter Crawford at the moment. Lucas Giolito will be back at some point after undergoing internal brace surgery on his elbow in the middle of March last year. Nick Pivetta is now a free agent but is currently deciding whether or not to accept the qualifying offer that the Sox gave him. Garrett Whitlock could be in the mix but he could also wind up in the bullpen. Quinn Priester, Cooper Criswell and Richard Fitts are possibilities but could also wind up in the minors or in the ’pen.

It appears that the Sox are setting their sights high in pursuing upgrades of that group, with Fried and Crochet both being quality pitchers. Crochet’s move from the bullpen to the rotation in 2024 could hardly have gone better, as he ultimately tossed 146 innings with a 3.58 ERA, 35.1% strikeout rate, 5.5% walk rate and 45.1% ground ball rate.

The rebuilding White Sox have little reason to hold onto him, as Crochet is now just two years away from free agency. Since the White Sox just wrapped up the worst season of the modern baseball era, they probably won’t return to contention in that time. There’s been little to indicate that a contract extension is likely, so Crochet is seen as one of the top trade candidates of this offseason. He is projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz for a salary of just $2.9MM next year, meaning he could fit into the budget of any club.

White Sox general manager Chris Getz says the the club is targeting position players in their Crochet trade talks. That could allow them and Boston to line up on a deal, as the Red Sox have a group of prospects known as the “Big Four”. Each of Roman Anthony, Kristian Campbell, Marcelo Mayer and Kyle Teel are nearing their major league debuts, meaning Boston either needs to find space for them on the big league roster or perhaps make them available in trades. McAdam suggests Anthony is untouchable but is less certain about the others in that group.

The White Sox will naturally have to assess what the Red Sox are willing to give up, as well as the other clubs. The Orioles have had one of the best farms in baseball in recent years, though it’s probably not as strong as it was. Many of the top names are now on the big league roster or have been used in trades as the club has pivoted into win-now mode.

The Padres’ interest in Crochet is logical both because they seem to be interested in everybody and also because they have budgetary concerns. Last winter’s Soto trade was largely about cutting payroll and getting the club under the competitive balance tax in the wake of their TV deal falling apart. Per RosterResource, their projected 2025 spending is already slated to blow past last year’s levels and they are right around the CBT line before the offseason has really even begun in earnest. Their rotation took a big hit when Joe Musgrove required Tommy John surgery, so replacing him with someone cheap like Crochet is obviously appealing.

The Dodgers pursued Crochet at the deadline a few months ago but no deal came together. They eventually won the World Series despite their rotation being essentially whittled down to a trio of Jack Flaherty, Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Walker Buehler. Both Flaherty and Buehler are now free agents. The Dodgers will get other guys back in the mix as they heal from injuries, such as Tyler Glasnow and Tony Gonsolin, but they could definitely find space for Crochet.

They have also been repeat CBT payors and therefore face high penalties. Per RosterResource, they are already slated to have a CBT number of $272MM next year, not far from the third tier of penalization with still plenty of offseason left to go.

As for the Yankees, the entire baseball world knows that their top priority is bringing back Soto, which will likely cost something close to $50MM per year for over a decade. If they don’t end up succeeding in bringing Soto back, they will have lots of options for redirecting that money to other parts of the roster. First base is open with Anthony Rizzo becoming a free agent. Soto’s departure would also make it viable to go after another outfielder. The club seemingly considered acquiring Flaherty at the deadline and then dealing Nestor Cortes, so some version of that could be in play again this offseason.

Theoretically, that makes Fried, Alonso, Santander or many other players viable fallback options, but it seems like those will only get real consideration after there’s more clarity with Soto. At this early stage of the offseason, there are infinite possibilities and each development will have domino effects. If some club lands Crochet, the clubs that miss out will have to pivot to other options. The clubs that don’t land Fried will have to adapt as well, as the various pieces of the free agent market and trade market are all interconnected.

Red Sox, Orioles, Dodgers Interested In Teoscar Hernández

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Free agent Teoscar Hernández just won a World Series and is now drawing interest in the early days of the offseason. The Red Sox and Orioles are interested in the outfielder, reports Jon Morosi of MLB Network on X. The Dodgers and Hernández also have mutual interest in a reunion, per Russell Dorsey of Yahoo Sports.

Hernández, 32, was a free agent a year ago and received interest from the Red Sox at that time. Chris Cotillo of MassLive (X link) reported that the Sox offered him $28MM over a two-year deal, numbers that were later confirmed by the player himself when speaking to Rob Bradford of WEEI and the Baseball Isn’t Boring Podcast.

He turned down that offer and instead took a slightly smaller guarantee on a one-year pact with the Dodgers. That deal paid him $23.5MM with some deferrals, but perhaps most importantly, allowed him to return to free agency after hopefully having a bounceback year.

That bet on himself looks like it will pay off well. From 2020 to 2022, he slashed .283/.333/.519 for the Blue Jays, production that led to a 132 wRC+. His defense wasn’t great but he did steal 24 bases in that stretch and the offense was undeniable. He was traded to the Mariners prior to 2023 and had a down year at the plate, hitting .258/.305/.435 for a 106 wRC+. With that weak platform year, his free agent market was fairly tepid, including the aforementioned offer from Boston.

But his year with Los Angeles could hardly have gone much better, as he hit .272/.339/.501 for a 134 wRC+, right back to his previous form. His defensive metrics still weren’t great but he swiped another 12 bags. He got into 16 playoff games and hit .250/.352/.417 for a 119 wRC+. On MLBTR’s Top 50 Free Agents post, we predicted that he could secure a three-year, $60MM deal this time around.

Whether he can get that deal or not, the Sox would almost certainly have to increase their offer from a year ago. If they are willing to do so, his right-handed swing would fit well on a roster with plenty of left-handed bats. Rafael Devers, Triston Casas, Masataka Yoshida, Jarren Duran and Wilyer Abreu all hit from the left side, as do prospects Kyle Teel, Marcelo Mayer and Roman Anthony.

Last year, the Sox complemented their lefty outfielders by having Tyler O’Neill, who had a good season in a specific way. He was injured a few times, struck out a bunch and did most of his damage against lefties, but still had a strong season overall. He hit 31 home runs in 113 games for a .241/.336/.511 slash line and 131 wRC+, all that despite a 33.6% strikeout rate and a meager 91 wRC+ against righties.

Hernández should be ranked a bit above O’Neill as he has a slight edge in most of those areas. His 28.8% strikeout rate in 2024 was high but not as bad as O’Neill’s. He does have platoon splits, though not to the same extent as O’Neill. Hernández has a 140/113 wRC+ split in his career and was at 154/126 in 2024. He’s also far more durable, having played at least 125 games in each of the past six full seasons, whereas O’Neill has only hit that number once in his career.

Either could work as the needed righty for Boston. Hernández would arguably be better but would also likely cost more. O’Neill was predicted by MLBTR for a three-year deal just like Hernández but with a lesser guarantee of $42MM. However, Hernández received a qualifying offer from the Dodgers and is therefore tied to draft pick forfeiture, whereas O’Neill is not. Per Pete Abraham of the Boston Globe on X, the Sox remain engaged with O’Neill’s camp and could potentially bring him back.

Either should fit in the club’s budget. RosterResource projects the club for a payroll of $136MM right now, more than $50MM below where they were in 2024. They’re about $70MM below the competitive balance tax line. They have needs on the pitching staff but could certainly spend on an outfielder if they want.

For the Orioles, they are a logical fit for similar reasons. Their lineup features lefties Gunnar Henderson, Ryan O’Hearn, Cedric Mullins, Colton Cowser, Heston Kjerstad and Jackson Holliday. Prospects Samuel Basallo and Dylan Beavers are also lefty swingers. Their outfield just lost switch-hitting outfielder Anthony Santander to free agency, so Hernández could slot in as Santander’s replacement if the O’s don’t re-sign him.

Orioles general manager Mike Elias recently identified a right-handed hitting outfielder as an offseason target, per Jake Rill of MLB.com. The big question is how much spending capacity the club will have this winter. In the past six years, they haven’t given a free agent a multi-year deal, with Craig Kimbrel’s $13MM guarantee on a one-year pact their largest expenditure.

For much of that time, they were rebuilding and then the club was up for sale. David Rubenstein took over ownership officially just as the 2024 season was getting started. It has been expected that the club will get a bit more aggressive and their trade deadline behavior gave some encouraging signs in that regard. They took on notable money to acquire Zach Eflin and Seranthony Domínguez, but it’s still unknown exactly how far they plan to go this winter.

“Whether it’s free-agent spending or it’s support for my staff or the baseball organization, I think we have everything that we need financially to make the optimal decisions for the long-term health of the franchise. And a lot of that’s going to be in my judgment,” Elias said this week. “But certainly, if we have something that we want to do and we need financial support for it, I’m exceedingly confident that that’s going to be there.”

Returning to the Dodgers is also easy to see, especially with the club planning to move Mookie Betts back to the infield next year. That means the projected outfield currently consists of Andy Pages, James Outman and utility guys like Tommy Edman and Chris Taylor. While the Dodgers could easily fit Hernández in there, they will probably first see how things play out with their reported interest in Juan Soto.

Orioles To Name Cody Asche Hitting Coach

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The Orioles plan to name Cody Asche hitting coach, reports Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com (X links). Kubatko also reported earlier today that Baltimore was hiring Tommy Joseph away from the Mariners as an assistant hitting coach.

Baltimore parted ways with former hitting coaches Ryan Fuller and Matt Borgschulte at the end of the season. Borgschulte landed with the Twins as their top hitting instructor last month. Kubatko reports (on X) today that Fuller is headed to the White Sox as director of hitting.

Asche will take a larger role in their stead. The O’s hired the former big league third baseman/outfielder as offensive strategy coach during the 2022-23 offseason. Asche had something of a de facto third hitting coach job in that capacity for two years. The O’s now seem content to turn the lead job over to the 34-year-old.

Most of Asche’s five-year playing career came as a member of the Phillies. The left-handed hitter played in Philadelphia between 2013-16. The final of those seasons overlapped with Joseph, a former first baseman who played 249 games for the Phils between 2016-17. Joseph made the transition to coaching in 2021. He spent a trio of seasons working with minor league hitters before joining Seattle’s staff as an assistant hitting coach. The Mariners shook up their hitting staff a couple times last season but kept Joseph in the fold all year. He’ll move on after one season to work with his former teammate in Baltimore.

Baltimore also has a bench coach vacancy after parting with Fredi González at the end of the year. The O’s haven’t settled on a replacement, but one notable name is connected to the job. Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic reports that the Orioles have interest in David Ross for the position, though he cautions that it’s unclear if that interest is mutual.

Last winter, Ross rebuffed interest from the Yankees regarding their bench coach job. That came within a week of his surprise firing as Cubs manager when Chicago jumped on the chance to hire Craig Counsell. Ross seemingly didn’t have any desire to take a non-managerial coaching job at the time. It isn’t known if that has changed, though he has close ties to Baltimore skipper Brandon Hyde. The O’s manager was on the Cubs’ coaching staff while Ross played for Chicago in 2015-16.

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