Extension Candidate: Adam Jones
Back in May, Orioles president of baseball operations Andy MacPhail talked to Amber Theoharis of MASNsports.com about the possibility of locking up center fielder Adam Jones:
"We actually, in Adam's case, had a brief conversation with Casey Close of CAA at the last winter meetings and talked about, you know, we'd be interested in talking about it in the following parameters. But I think they felt like Adam was still on the ascent and wanted him to play and further establish himself, and they may very well be right."
When the subject of extending Jones comes up again, perhaps in early 2012, plenty will have changed. Jones is still with CAA, but is represented by Nez Balelo with Casey Close gone. There's a good chance a new GM will be in town for the Orioles. And most importantly, Jones will likely have the best offensive season of his career under his belt, as the agency apparently predicted.
Jones, 26, is hitting .293/.328/.482 with 22 home runs in 537 plate appearances for the Orioles this year. The batting average would be a career best. He's already set career highs in home runs and RBIs, while tying his top stolen base mark. Jones is not a perfect player – he doesn't draw many walks, and based on UZR his defense has been below average over his last 3,400 innings.
Those two flaws are generally not big factors in arbitration cases, so they're unlikely to affect Jones' earnings in 2012 and '13. Currently we're estimating a $3.35MM raise for Jones next year, bringing him to $6.6MM. Barring a performance decline or major injury, Jones projects to top $10MM for '13.
Jones is on track to earn around $17MM for 2012-13, but if he signs an extension in the offseason the team's discount is likely to reduce those salaries significantly. I could see something like $5MM for '12 and $8MM for '13, and then it's a question of how many free agent years each side is willing to include in a long-term deal. For Corey Hart, that number was two, at $9.5MM apiece. Justin Upton signed with much less service time but also gave up two, while Jay Bruce gave up two plus a club option. None of them are great comparables – Jones is only two years away from free agency and plays center field.
My gut feel is that buying a couple of Jones' free agent years could cost $14MM each, so the team could offer a bit more than $40MM over four years. The question is how eager Jones is for his first major payday. Signing through 2015 would still allow him to reach free agency at age 30, at which point a contract approaching $100MM would be possible if is offense stayed the same and a couple of bidders graded his defense with metrics other than UZR. On the other hand, the ultimate free agent score could be only two years away, especially if he has a monster 2013.
Photo courtesy of Icon SMI.
Outrighted To Triple-A: Felix Pie
Here are the latest players to get outrighted to the minor leagues…
- Felix Pie cleared waivers and the Orioles outrighted him to Triple-A, according to MLB.com's Brittany Ghiroli (on Twitter). Baltimore had designated the outfielder for assignment on Tuesday. Pie can elect free agency instead of accepting the assignment and has until Saturday morning to decide, according to Dan Connolly of the Baltimore Sun. If he elects free agency, he'll lose what remains of his $985K salary. Pie is expected to accept the assignment, according to Connolly (Twitter link).
Orioles Designate Felix Pie For Assignment
The Orioles designated Felix Pie for assignment to create roster space for Matt Angle, according to Dan Connolly of the Baltimore Sun (on Twitter). The Orioles have confirmed the moves and announced that they also selected the contract of Jake Fox.
Pie, who is out of options, is under team control through 2013 and earns $985K this year. The 26-year-old posted a .220/.264/.280 line in 175 plate appearances for Baltimore this year, playing all three outfield positions. Pie, a former top prospect, has a .249/.298/.374 line in 1051 career plate appearances for the Cubs and Orioles. His most productive years came in 2009-10 in Baltimore (.739 OPS).
MLBTR's Tim Dierkes suggested earlier today that Pie was a candidate to lose his roster spot.
Arbitration Eligibles: Baltimore Orioles
The Orioles kick off our series taking a look at players who will be arbitration eligible for 2012.
- First time: Jo-Jo Reyes, Brad Bergesen, Robert Andino, Alfredo Simon
- Second time: Adam Jones, Felix Pie, Jim Johnson
- Third time: Jeremy Guthrie
- Fourth time: Luke Scott, Jeremy Accardo
Projected potential Super Twos such as Bergesen and Simon may not end up with enough service time to be arbitration eligible. If the projected 2.145 cutoff holds up, Bergesen will be arbitration eligible and Simon will not.
Scott had shoulder surgery in July and is a likely non-tender. Pie is possible given his terrible offensive season, as are potential first-timers Eyre, Reyes, and Bergesen. Accardo is another non-tender candidate.
The key cases for the Orioles are Jones, Guthrie, and Johnson. Jones should exceed $6MM. Guthrie is in lightly charted waters as a third-time starting pitcher, and the cases of 2012 peers like John Danks, Matt Garza, and Joe Saunders will be relevant here. $9-10MM is possible. Johnson will be coming off a solid season, but still figures to come in under $2MM.
Quick Hits: Davis, Marlins, Draft
The Rangers beat the Orioles 30-3 on this date four years ago. In one of the most bizarre statistical quirks in recent memory, Rangers reliever Wes Littleton actually picked up a save in the game. Here are today's links, starting with an update on Texas and Baltimore…
- Rangers GM Jon Daniels reached out to Orioles president of baseball operations Andy MacPhail when he heard about Chris Davis' strained shoulder, according to MLB.com's T.R. Sullivan. The Orioles, who obtained Davis from Texas in a trade late last month, haven't had serious talks about reworking the deal, according to Sullivan. Daniels says the sides could revisit the trade at some point, though.
- Juan C. Rodriguez of the South Florida Sun Sentinel says it's doubtful that the Marlins would allow president of baseball operations Larry Beinfest to interview for the Cubs' GM opening (Twitter link).
- The Nationals, D'Backs, Red Sox, Pirates and Rays had the best drafts this year, Jim Callis writes at Baseball America.
Outrighted To The Minors: Luis Lebron
Here's today's list of players to get outrighted to the minors…
- The Orioles outrighted Luis Lebron to short-season Aberdeen after he cleared waivers, according to MASNsports.com's Roch Kubatko. The O's had designated the reliever for assignment on Tuesday.
Heyman On Pirates, Orioles, Buehrle, Hultzen
The Astros placed Wandy Rodriguez and Brett Myers on waivers, according to Jon Heyman of SI.com. Here are Heyman’s other notes from around MLB…
- Commissioner Bud Selig singled out the Pirates and Nationals for overspending in the draft and is more determined than ever to add slotting for draft bonuses, according to Heyman.
- Union people suggest to Heyman that current Major Leaguers oppose the idea of capping bonuses for amateur players, however.
- Orioles president of baseball operations Andy MacPhail admitted that pitchers like Jake Arrieta and Brian Matusz have disappointed this year. "The starting pitching has really gone backward." he said. "We've got to get these guys back to where they were before."
- Suggestions that Mark Buehrle may retire after the season are off-base, Heyman reports. The left-hander’s contract expires after the season.
- The Mariners assured top pick Danny Hultzen that he’ll arrive in Spring Training 2012 with the chance to make the team, according to Heyman.
Draft Links: Callis’ Recap, Bonuses, Cubs
Monday's deadline to sign selections from June's First-Year Player Draft has come and gone, but there's plenty of reactions and analysis still to be had. Here's some of the latest:
- Baseball America's Jim Callis has written up a draft recap, the big takeaway being that teams spent a lot of money on amateur players in 2011. Callis lists the biggest deals in the early, middle and late rounds, as well as the notable picks who did not sign. All told, teams spent a record $236MM combined.
- If you're into charts, Callis has a whole gang of cool ones within this piece, including the biggest bonuses in draft history, the largest big league contracts in draft history, team bonus expenditures for the past three years, and this year's top 50 bonuses vs. slot. Nice, comprehensive work there by Callis and BA, to compile all that data.
- The Cubs were among the big spenders in this year's draft, and it gave us a glimpse into what their long-term plan may be under the ownership of the Ricketts family, writes Phil Rogers of the Chicago Tribune.
- Steve Melewski of MASNSports.com wonders, what makes a good draft? He spoke to Callis about it recently, and the answer is fascinating. Only 10-12 percent of the guys who are drafted and signed will make it to the bigs, so if a team can produce two big leaguers in one draft, that year is a success.
Orioles Designate Luis Lebron For Assignment
The Orioles designated minor league reliever Luis Lebron for assignment to open a 40-man roster spot for newly-signed Dylan Bundy, tweets Jeff Zrebiec of the Baltimore Sun. As an advanced high school pitcher, Bundy signed a Major League deal yesterday and therefore required a 40-man spot.
Lebron, 26, missed the 2010 season with Tommy John surgery and returned to action in late July this year. Baseball America ranked him 21st among Orioles prospects prior to the season, as he's a "legitimate power arm out of the bullpen" if healthy.
American League Over Slot Signings
Most teams will exceed MLB's slot recommendations on at least a few players. Here's the latest on such signings from the American League:
- The Mariners signed second rounder Brad Miller for $750K, according to Callis (on Twitter).
- The Orioles signed sixth rounder Nicky Delmonico for $1.525MM, according to Jeff Zrebiec of the Baltimore Sun (on Twitter). Earlier on, the Orioles agreed to sign second rounder Jason Esposito for $600K, according to MLB.com's Jonathan Mayo (on Twitter). Before that, the Orioles signed 26th round pick Zach Davies for $575K, reports Baseball America's Jim Callis. The high school righty has drawn some Mike Leake comparisons, writes Callis. Jeff Zrebiec of the Baltimore Sun was told last night that this deal isn't done, but it could be headed in the right direction.
- Red Sox seventh rounder Cody Kukuk signed for $800K, according to Callis (on Twitter). Boston also signed fourth rounder Noe Ramirez, according to Alex Speier of WEEI.com. The right-hander obtains a $625K bonus, according to Speier and Callis.
- The Blue Jays signed seventh rounder Christian Lopes for $800K, according to Jim Callis of Baseball America (on Twitter). The Blue Jays also signed 13th round pick Matt Dean, tweets Callis. The high school third baseman signed for $737.5K, tweets ESPN's Keith Law. BA considers him the best prep third base prospect in the draft.
- The Yankees signed Greg Bird for $1.1MM, according to Zoodig, an athlete digital media platform, on Twitter. The Yankees signed sixth rounder Jake Cave for $825K, according to Callis (on Twitter). The Yankees also signed third rounder Jordan Cote for $725K, according to Callis. The high school right-hander has a fastball in the 90 mph range and stands 6'5". Earlier today, the Yankees signed 20th round pick and high school lefty Daniel Camarena for $335K, tweets Kendall Rogers of Perfect Game USA.
- The Indians signed 18th rounder Shawn Armstrong for $325K, according to Rogers (on Twitter). The Indians also announced that they have signed second round right-hander Dillon Howard. He gets a $1.85MM bonus, according to Jonathan Mayo of MLB.com (on Twitter).
- The Royals signed 16th rounder Jack Lopez for $750K, according to Callis (on Twitter). The Royals have also signed third rounder Bryan Brickhouse for $1.5MM, reports Callis. The high school right-hander received the second largest bonus outside of the top 18 picks so far. Earlier today, the Royals signed fourth round pick and high school righty Kyle Smith for $695K, reports Callis. The Royals also signed 29th round pick Jake Junis for $675K, reports Callis. Junis, an athletic high school righty from Illinois, is represented by Frontline.
- The Angels have agreed to terms with sixth rounder Austin Wood, tweets Mike DiGiovanna of The Los Angeles Times (on Twitter). The USC righty got $150K.
- The Twins signed tenth rounder Brett Lee for $150K, according to John Manuel and Jim Callis of Baseball America (on Twitter).
- The Tigers signed 15th round pick and high school outfielder Tyler Gibson for $525K, tweets Rogers.