GM Meetings Notes: The American League East

Rivals are no doubt watching to see how the Rays decide to approach the offseason, as the team’s stable of intriguing trade candidates could change the market quite a bit. The organization is still at “an info-gathering stage,” GM Erik Neander tells Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times. It seems, though, that there’s at least some consideration of dealing some veteran assets. Topkin analyzes the possibility of a full-throated rebuild, something that Neander acknowledges having considered. Of course, the young GM also says he doesn’t think a focus on the future “necessarily always has to come from tearing an organization down to the studs and then building it up.” Indeed, he argues that the Rays have managed to amass young talent while remaining competitive, even if the results haven’t quite been there of late.

More from Tampa Bay and the rest of the AL East:

  • Also tackling the Rays situation were Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (subscription link) and Jon Heyman of Fan Rag. Rosenthal calls on Tampa Bay to “deconstruct,” perhaps to the point of marketing all of its best MLB talent, while Heyman says that Tampa Bay is listening to interest from other organizations on its top assets. Both pieces note that third baseman Evan Longoria remains just shy of ten-and-five rights, meaning he can’t block a trade, though Rosenthal also suggests he wouldn’t stand in the way of a move if the club decides not to compete. While Longoria clearly isn’t the team’s most valuable asset — that’d be righty Chris Archer — and is coming off of his worst-ever offensive campaign, the 32-year-old would still surely draw real interest from organizations in need of a third baseman.
  • Red Sox president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski covered a host of topics in his chat with reporters yesterday. As Pete Abraham of the Boston Globe reports, some of the most interesting comments covered the team’s search for a “proven bat.” Most notably, Dombrowski suggested that there are limits to the team’s willingness to pursue trade avenues, with the Sox uninterested in dealing away current MLB assets and cognizant of the need to “be careful” of further depleting their stock of prospects. With Boston having dipped below the luxury tax line last year, perhaps it’s now more appealing to take on salary via free agency than to give value in trade. Meanwhile, Dombrowski addressed the question of how the team will help cover for Dustin Pedroia early in the season. He hinted that a significant acquisition might not be necessary, highlighting Marco Hernandez as a strong internal candidate to bridge the gap.
  • One key need for the Blue Jays is to find a quality middle infielder to supplement the team’s injury-prone duo of Troy Tulowitzki and Devon Travis, as Shi Davidi of Sportsnet.ca writes. The team is looking for a player that is capable of handling more-or-less full-time duties, even if that may not ultimately be required. “Our priority is complementing our infield in some way with versatility, someone that can not just play when needed, but someone who can potentially get 600 plate appearances across our infield in some form or fashion,” GM Ross Atkins explains, while also noting that such a player could supplement the outfield mix as well. As Ben Nicholson-Smith further explores, finding that sort of player could well come at a cost. Several rival general managers suggested that they won’t easily part with assets that could meet Toronto’s specifications. As Nicholson-Smith tweets, pitching depth remains on the team’s wish list, too, though it may not be as critical as adding the above-described player and filling at least one outfield vacancy.
  • Yankees GM Brian Cashman discussed his approach to the offseason with reporters including MLB.com’s Bryan Hoch (Twitter links). “We have a lot of good players signed,” he said, so we’re not in a situation where we have to be pressured into moving fast on anything.” Indeed, with quality internal options at most every spot on the roster, New York can seemingly stand to be opportunistic, particularly given that the team is set to dispense its open payroll space judiciously. Cashman also noted that he sees Aaron Hicks as an everyday player. That stance, along with the payroll considerations, seemingly makes it all the more likely that the Yanks will see if they can find a taker for Jacoby Ellsbury and some of his remaining salary obligations.
  • The Orioles, of course, face a variety of needs that will be tough to fill with somewhat limited payroll availability. Jon Meoli of the Baltimore Sun provides a look at some veteran international targets that could be on the O’s radar. Signing foreign players to smaller, MLB deals has certainly been a notable Baltimore strategy in the past, and Meoli says the organization is “looking strongly” at doing so yet again.

Crasnick’s Latest: Stanton, Ohtani, JDM, Darvish, Royals, McCutchen

In this year’s edition of his annual Hot Stove survey (an always-excellent read), ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick surveyed 40 front office execs and scouts from around the league on nine offseason issues as this week’s GM Meetings kick off. Among the topics discussed, at length, are the possibility of a Giancarlo Stanton trade (and his likeliest destination), where Japanese star Shohei Ohtani will land, how much J.D. Martinez can command in free agency, and whether Yu Darvish‘s poor World Series showing hampered his free-agent stock. Crasnick also polled the 40 baseball ops/scouting minds on multiple groups of free agents and trade candidates, asking which will provide the most value and which are likeliest to be dealt.

If you follow the offseason even loosely, you’ll want to be sure to read through the entire column, which is packed with quotes and insight from general managers, scouts and other front-office executives on the players in question and their potential landing spots. Some abbreviated highlights…

  • Three quarters of the respondents indicated that they expect Stanton to be traded this offseason, with nearly a third listing the Cardinals as the likeliest landing spot. The Giants were the second-most popular spot, though one scout tells Crasnick he has a difficult time envisioning that match, calling the Giants a “bottom-five farm system.” One respondent who felt Stanton would stay in Miami suggests to Crasnick that the Marlins may be underestimating just how much of the contract they’ll need to pay down.
  • The Yankees and Dodgers split the vote on the surveyed group’s likeliest destinations for Ohtani, with the Rangers not far behind. Several other clubs received a few votes, and four of the 40 respondents suggested that they believed Ohtani would remain with the Nippon Ham Fighters in 2018. There’s still some work to be done with the league, the players’ union and Nippon Professional Baseball before the posting process can begin in earnest. The agreement between MLB and NPB on the current iteration of the posting system expired this offseason.
  • The Red Sox were the overwhelming favorite when it came to the question of Martinez’s next team, though expectations for his contract varied in size. One GM pegged Martinez at around six years and $140MM, Crasnick notes. Some execs felt he’d fall closer to Justin Upton’s $106MM guarantee.
  • Only three of the 40 respondents thought that Darvish’s pair of World Series meltdowns would have a substantial impact on his offseason earning capacity. Crasnick’s piece has plenty of insightful quotes on Darvish — more than any other player — from the scouts that were polled. An AL scout tells Crasnick that 15 years ago, the World Series might’ve hurt Darvish, but in a largely sabermetric environment, his late struggles are a “void blip in the radar.”
  • Crasnick also asked respondents which of the Royals‘ big three free agents (Eric Hosmer, Mike Moustakas, Lorenzo Cain) would provide the best value on his next deal, which of Carlos Gomez or Carlos Gonzalez had a better chance of reestablishing himself as a star, and which major 2018-19 free agent among Andrew McCutchen, Josh Donaldson and Manny Machado is likeliest to be traded this winter. I found it somewhat of a surprise to see Hosmer as the decisive favorite in that Royals question, though many scouts praised his glovework despite poor reviews from defensive metrics. McCutchen, less surprisingly, was deemed likeliest of his trio to go, while Gonzalez topped Gomez handily in their own respective face-off.

Quick Hits: Archer, Red Sox, Tigers, Cubs

Rays right-hander Chris Archer may come up frequently in trade rumors this offseason, but general manager Erik Neander suggested Sunday that he plans to keep the 29-year-old. Neander told MLB Network Radio that Archer “is one of our core guys” and “exactly the type of player” the Rays need to retain if they’re going to compete in the future (Twitter link). Archer, who’s signed to one of the majors’ most team-friendly contracts, will make a combined $13.75MM over the next two seasons. After that, Archer’s employer will have a chance to control him through 2021 via ultra-affordable club options ($9MM and $11MM).

  • The Red Sox are hiring Craig Bjornson as their bullpen coach, according to Evan Drellich of NBC Sports Boston. He’ll take over for Dana Levangie, whom the team promoted to pitching coach this week. Bjornson was with the Astros from 2012-17 and spent some of that time as their bullpen coach. He was on the same staff last season as new Red Sox manager Alex Cora, who was the Astros’ bench coach during their World Series-winning campaign.
  • The Cubs and Tigers still haven’t finalized the trade they made in July that saw reliever Justin Wilson and catcher Alex Avila head to Chicago for third baseman Jeimer Candelario, infielder Isaac Paredes and a player to be named later or cash, Mark Anderson of Baseball Prospectus tweets. It turns out the Tigers will receive the PTBNL in lieu of cash, but the teams haven’t decided on which player yet.
  • Mike Petriello of MLB.com breaks down the most appealing free agents available based on Statcast metrics xwOBA, Sprint Speed and Outs Above Average. Going by xwOBA, right fielder J.D. Martinez stands out on the offensive side; righties Yu Darvish and Jake Arrieta bring the best track records among starters, while Pat Neshek is the top reliever. The OAA crown goes to Royals center fielder Lorenzo Cain, who falls just shy of fellow outfielder Rajai Davis in the battle for fastest runner on the market. Petriello also suggests that, based on Statcast data, outfielder Hyun Soo Kim and a trio of righties – Tyler Chatwood, Anibal Sanchez and Tyson Ross – could end up as good buy-low signings.

Giancarlo Stanton Rumors: Sunday

Heading into the upcoming week’s general managers meetings, Marlins right fielder Giancarlo Stanton ranks as the majors’ best on-the-block player. Here are the latest rumblings involving the 27-year-old National League MVP hopeful:

  • Clark Spencer of the Miami Herald reported Saturday that Boston is “definitely in play” for Stanton, but sources tell Jon Heyman of FanRag that the Red Sox don’t look like the front-runners for him at the moment. Rather, the Sox are more focused on other players, including free agent outfielder J.D. Martinez, per Heyman.
  • The Cardinals, who have discussed Stanton with the Marlins, are “determined” in their interest, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports. The two clubs expect to continue their Stanton talks at the meetings, according to Goold, who adds that the Cardinals also have Marlins closer Brad Ziegler on their radar. The 38-year-old Ziegler is due $9MM in 2018, and it’s fair to surmise that the payroll-slashing Marlins would like to remove as much of his money as possible from their books.
  • Stanton has also piqued San Francisco’s interest, though the Marlins are bearish on the Giants’ farm system and don’t believe the team could put together a satisfactory package for the slugger, John Shea of the San Francisco Chronicle relays. So, to increase their odds of acquiring Stanton, the Giants would have to commit to taking on more of his enormous contract than a team with better prospects, Shea contends. That would seemingly be problematic for the Giants, who don’t want to spend past the $197MM luxury tax threshold in 2018 and already have significant money on their books.

Giants Interested In Acquiring Jackie Bradley Jr.

The Giants are interested in acquiring Red Sox center fielder Jackie Bradley Jr., according to Jon Morosi of MLB Network (Twitter link). Bradley is one of “many” outfielders the Giants are eyeing, notes Morosi, who reported Friday that they have discussed right fielder Giancarlo Stanton with the Marlins.

The 27-year-old Bradley would be a much less exciting addition for San Francisco than Stanton, who’s a National League MVP finalist after bashing 59 home runs in 2017, but he’d nonetheless upgrade its outfield. The Giants’ starting center fielder in 2017 was the 33-year-old Denard Span, who easily ranked last in the majors in Defensive Runs Saved (minus-27) and posted a similarly dreadful minus-7.5 Ultimate Zone Rating. Unsurprisingly, then, executive vice president of baseball operations Brian Sabean has identified center field as a position where the Giants must improve.

“Center field needs to be upgraded,” Sabean said this week.

Bradley would fit the bill from a defensive standpoint, having combined for 34 DRS and a 23.5 UZR in center dating back to 2014, his first full season. The lefty-swinger complemented his excellent glove work with terrific offense from 2015-16, slashing .262/.345/.489 with 36 home runs and a .227 ISO in 891 plate appearances, but his production in that department took a step back last season. In 541 trips to the plate, Bradley hit a disappointing .245/.323/.402 and saw his ISO plummet to .158. On the positive side, Bradley still went deep 17 times, and he ranked as one of the premier baserunners in the game for the second straight year, according to FanGraphs’ BsR metric.

While it’s unclear what the Giants would have to give up for Bradley, he’d presumably bring back a solid haul as someone who still has three years of arbitration eligibility remaining. He’s projected to earn an easily affordable $5.9MM in 2018, which surely appeals to a San Francisco club that already has approximately $170MM committed to 16 players for next season and is trying to stay under the $197MM luxury tax threshold. Conversely, the Red Sox are more than willing to spend upward of $197MM if it means improving their offense, which struggled in 2017. Dealing Bradley and acquiring a big-hitting outfielder like Stanton or free agent J.D. Martinez would help them do that.

Giancarlo Stanton Rumors: Saturday

On Friday, we learned that the Marlins have had preliminary talks about outfielder Giancarlo Stanton with four MLB teams. As more rumors involving the prolific slugger swirl about today, we’ll keep track of them here.

  • Talks between the Marlins and Red Sox involving Stanton “may be heating up”, according to Clark Spencer of the Miami Herald. His source tells him that the Red Sox are “definitely in play”. Spencer also mentions that Stanton’s incredible power would play well at Fenway Park, adding that Boston hit the fewest home runs of any MLB team in 2017. The Red Sox certainly seem like a reasonable fit for many other reasons as well, and Spencer lists a small handful in his piece. They’ve been said to be interested in spending more money, even to the point of exceeding the luxury tax, while it has been said that Stanton prefers to play near a coast. President of Baseball Operations Dave Dombrowski is no stranger to making deals with the Marlins, having helped engineer a blockbuster trade to bring Miguel Cabrera to the Tigers back in 2007.

East Notes: Mets, Red Sox, Orioles

Following a 92-loss season, the Mets will reimagine the way they use their pitching staff, says Marc Carig of newsday.com. The so-called “philosophical shift” may in part be driven by the Mets’ recent hire of former Indians pitching coach Mickey Callaway as their new manager. According to one of Carig’s sources, Mets starters not named Noah Syndergaard or Jacob deGrom may be shielded from facing lineups more than twice through the order, following a continuing trend throughout the league. In order to compensate for potentially fewer innnings from their starters, the Amazins plan to employ an eight man bullpen. The dramatic change in plans comes after the team posted a 5.01 combined ERA (the second-worst mark in the National League in 2017) despite watching deGrom finish as one of the best pitchers in all of baseball. Carig lays out the opponent OPS for each Mets pitcher per times through the batting order as well.

More from baseball’s East division…

  • In a lengthy piece for the Providence Journal, Tim Britton urges against many reactionary moves suggested by Red Sox fans. The body of the article includes 24 fan suggestions for Dave Dombrowski that Britton sought out on Twitter. Among them are cases for why Boston shouldn’t trade for Giancarlo Stanton, why signing Eric Hosmer doesn’t make sense, and why they should neither shop David Price nor move him to the bullpen permanently. While many such suggestions from fans have obvious flaws in logic, Britton’s piece is well worth a read for his detailed perspective on each subject.
  • Too many strikeouts and too few walks plagued the Orioles once again in 2017, writes Steve Melewski of MASNsports.com. The team’s 23.0% strikeout rate ranked 5th-highest in the majors, while their 6.4% combined walk rate was the worst in the majors. That horrid walk rate was over two full percentage points below the major-league average. Among the strikeout culprits was first baseman Chris Davis, who led all qualifiers in baseball with a whopping 37.2% strikeout rate. Melewski noted that a quick turnaround in this category isn’t unheard of; the Astros went from having the AL’s worst strikeout rate in 2015 to the league’s best this past season en route to a World Series victory. The Orioles will hope they can follow that example to some extent and put more balls in play next season.

Latest On Giancarlo Stanton: Talks Between Marlins, 4 Teams

The Red Sox, Cardinals, Giants and Phillies are early contenders to put together a trade for Marlins superstar Giancarlo Stanton, Jon Morosi of MLB Network reports (on Twitter). There has been “preliminary communication” regarding the right fielder between each of those teams and the Marlins, according to Morosi, who adds that talks are likely to “intensify” at next week’s general managers meetings.

With the Marlins primed to slash payroll under new owners Bruce Sherman and Derek Jeter, Stanton stands out as their most obvious trade candidate. The 2017 major league home run king (59) and National League MVP finalist is owed either $295MM through 2028 or $77MM through 2020, depending on whether he exercises his opt-out clause. The amount of money left on the contract, the opt-out and Stanton’s full no-trade rights could combine to make a trade rather complicated. But the 27-year-old Stanton’s no-trade clause may not be a major hindrance, given that he is fed up with losing and would like to join a contender. The Marlins appear poised to embark on a lengthy rebuild, so it seems doubtful Stanton would stand in the way of a deal if he feels the acquiring team would give him a chance to play meaningful games into the fall – something he hasn’t done since bursting on the big league scene in 2010.

While the Marlins have never even posted an above-.500 season during Stanton’s eight-year career, the Red Sox, Cardinals and Giants have typically served as contenders during that span (though San Francisco’s coming off a major league-worst 68-win season). The Phillies, meanwhile, have finished toward the bottom of the NL East for five years running, but several of their young players showed progress in 2017, and the club figures to return to its high-spending ways when it’s officially ready to leave its own long rebuild behind. Stanton reportedly wasn’t willing to waive his NTC to go to Philadelphia as of late in the season, though, and it could also hurt the team’s cause that it shares a division with the Marlins, who would have to face the p.r. backlash of dealing the face of their franchise to a close rival.

As with the Phillies, there are reasons why a Stanton acquisition would and wouldn’t work for each of the other three suitors (and several other teams), as MLBTR’s Jeff Todd deftly laid out on Thursday. Regardless of whether the Marlins ultimately send him to one of the four front-runners or another club, the Stanton sweepstakes will go down as one of the most fascinating sagas of the offseason.

AL Notes: Choo, Rangers, BoSox, M’s, Ichiro, Orioles

Outfielder/designated hitter Shin-Soo Choo is a “luxury” the Rangers can’t afford, opines the Dallas Morning News’ Evan Grant, who contends that the team should shop the 35-year-old in hopes of improving elsewhere. Choo has an onerous contract, though, as he’s owed $62MM through 2020, so the Rangers’ best hope might be flipping him for another team’s unappealing deal, Grant writes. With that in mind, Grant lists three right-handers signed through 2020 – the Tigers’ Jordan Zimmermann ($74MM remaining on his pact), the Royals’ Ian Kennedy ($49MM) and the Reds’ Homer Bailey ($49MM, including a $5MM buyout in 2020) – as players the starter-needy Rangers could potentially acquire in exchange for Choo. Notably, Choo spent the 2013 campaign in Cincinnati and thrived, which helped pave the way for him to sign a seven-year, $130MM pact with the Rangers in the ensuing offseason.

More from the American League:

  • Red Sox catcher prospect Daniel Flores passed away Wednesday over complications stemming from cancer treatment, but he was only diagnosed with the disease (testicular cancer) in late October, family friend Jose Salas Jr. told Alex Speier of the Boston Globe. “When we saw it was bad, we did CT scans, X-rays, and stuff, and it was way too late, it was already too late,” said Salas, who was also Flores’ trainer. “He was so strong that he wouldn’t feel pain. . . . There were no indications, nothing suspicious, no negligence, there was nothing. . . . I don’t know what to tell you.” Flores was playing in the Dominican Republic instructional league shortly before he received his diagnosis, which came after he complained of back pain, and teammate and pitching prospect Alex Scherff informed Speier that “you literally couldn’t have been able to see that he was in that condition at all. He completely dominates the game. He’s the best catcher I’ve ever seen, no doubt in my mind at all.” Speier’s piece, which further profiles Flores and includes more quotes from Salas and Scherff, is certainly worth checking out in full.
  • The Mariners are “highly unlikely” to reunite with free agent outfielder Ichiro Suzuki, Greg Johns of MLB.com hears. While Ichiro established himself as a Mariners legend during his time with the club from 2001-12, bringing the 44-year-old back would go against the team’s plans to get younger, Johns notes. It’s also unclear how much the future Hall of Famer has left at this point, given that he slashed a paltry .255/.318/.332 in 215 plate appearances with the Marlins this past season. That subpar output led the Fish to decline Ichiro’s inexpensive team option ($2MM).
  • Although Zach Britton, Richard Bleier and Donnie Hart remain on hand after seeing plenty of action in 2017, the Orioles are nonetheless on the lookout for left-handed relief help, according to Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com. The top available free agents include Mike Minor, Jake McGee, ex-Oriole Brian Duensing and Tony Watson, though the club could instead opt for a low-profile addition on a minor league deal, Kubatko suggests.

Red Sox Prospect Daniel Flores Passes Away Due To Cancer

In heartbreaking news, the Red Sox announced on Wednesday that top prospect Daniel Flores has passed away due to complications stemming from treatment for cancer. Flores was just 17 years of age.

“Everyone at the Red Sox was shocked to hear of Daniel’s tragic passing,” said president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski in a statement. “To see the life of young man with so much promise cut short is extremely saddening for all of us. On behalf of the Red Sox organization, I would like to extend our deepest sympathies and condolences to Daniel’s family.”

Red Sox senior vice president and assistant GM Eddie Romero, who has overseen the team’s international scouting department since 2012, also weighed in:

“Every member of our organization who got to know Daniel absolutely loved him. He was energetic, hard-working, and genuinely selfless, always with a smile on his face. He cared for his teammates and was a natural leader. I’m at a loss for words today. Daniel was an impressive young man with limitless potential, and his life was cut far too short. My condolences go out to Daniel’s mother and sister. Though with us for a short time, Daniel will always be a part of the Red Sox family.”

Boston inked the highly regarded Flores just this summer, signing him to a $3.1MM bonus out of his native Venezuela. He was touted as one of the most promising young talents on the 2017-18 international amateur market and had ranked as the team’s No. 5 prospect over at MLB.com, which also ranked Flores among the 10 best catching prospects in all of baseball.

On-field abilities aside, the sudden and unexpected loss of a young man with such a bright future ahead of him will leave the industry with heavy hearts. MLBTR extends its heartfelt condolences to the family and friends of Flores, as well as his teammates and the entire Red Sox organization.

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