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Red Sox Notes: Grissom, Winckowski, Rotation, Booser

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Vaughn Grissom was already questionable for Opening Day, but Alex Cora offered an update this morning on the timeline for his second baseman’s return. “We’re talking mid-April probably, [or] late April,” the Red Sox manager told members of the media, including Ian Browne of MLB.com. Grissom has not yet appeared in a Grapefruit League game; he has been nursing a groin strain all spring.

Boston traded for Grissom in December, sending Chris Sale (and $17MM) to Atlanta to complete the exchange. The Red Sox were counting on the 23-year-old to be their everyday second baseman in 2024. Barring a significant setback, he can still fill that role, and if he returns in mid-April, he might only miss 15-20 games.

When news of Grissom’s injury first broke, Cora told Pete Abraham of The Boston Globe that Enmanuel Valdez would fill in at second base. Valdez started 44 games at the keystone for the Red Sox last season. He slashed a perfectly respectable .266/.311/.453 in 149 plate appearances, with eight doubles and six home runs. However, he took nearly 90% of his plate appearances with the platoon advantage and went 2-for-14 against left-handed pitching. Thus, Pablo Reyes is likely to grab some starts at second with a southpaw on the mound.

In pitching news from Red Sox camp, Cora told reporters (including Sean McAdam of MassLive) that Josh Winckowski is no longer in the running for the Opening Day rotation, and he will likely move to the bullpen to begin the season. As Browne points out, that leaves Tanner Houck, Garrett Whitlock, and Cooper Criswell competing for the final two jobs on Boston’s starting staff. Brayan Bello, Nick Pivetta, and Kutter Crawford will hold down the top three spots.

Winckowski pitched well out of the bullpen last season, posting a 2.88 ERA in 84 1/3 innings of work. His 3.84 SIERA and 3.82 xERA were more good than great, but there is no denying he was an effective reliever, especially against left-handed opponents. The same cannot be said for his time as a starting pitcher the year before. Over 70 1/3 innings, Winckowski pitched to a 5.89 ERA, 4.84 xERA, and 4.82 SIERA, striking out a mere 44 batters while walking 27. Nonetheless, the 25-year-old told Rob Bradford of WEEI that he still considers himself a starting pitcher.

While Cora suggested Winckowski would likely fill a multi-inning role at the MLB level, he didn’t completely shut down the possibility that the righty could begin the season as a starter at Triple-A (per McAdam). “We still have got decisions to make,” said the skipper. “We’ll transition him now to the bullpen… and we’ll make decisions after that.”

Out of Houck, Whitlock, and Criswell, a trio of tall, 27-year-old right-handers, it seems like the former two have the edge over the latter. Houck and Whitlock have significantly more big league experience, and both were serviceable out of the rotation for Boston in 2023. Houck has a career 3.86 ERA in 252 innings, while Whitlock has a career 3.51 in 223 1/3 frames. Criswell has pitched well this spring, but it would be hard to argue he has done enough to edge out either of his more proven teammates.

Turning back to the bullpen, Cora mentioned an interesting name to Christopher Smith of MassLive: Cam Booser. Booser will turn 32 in May. He has spent time in the Twins, Diamondbacks, and Red Sox organizationx. He has never been selected to a 40-man roster, let alone pitched in the major leagues. Yet Booser was the first name the manager mentioned,  pointing out his upper-90s fastball velocity and the way he has landed “offspeed pitches for strikes.”

That said, Cora was also clear to emphasize the value of experience. Brennan Bernardino, who already has a spot on the 40-man roster, made 55 appearances last year with a 3.20 ERA. Joely Rodríguez, a non-roster invitee, has pitched in 168 games over six big league seasons. Chris Murphy, another 40-man arm, found moderate success as a multi-inning reliever last season, tossing 47 2/3 frames over 20 appearances with the Red Sox. Cora brought up all three of their names in the same discussion, and it’s hard to imagine Booser beating out any of them for a spot on the Opening Day roster.

Still, it’s becoming clear that Booser is a name to keep an eye on this season. He has given up just two runs in eight innings this spring, striking out eight and walking none.

MLBTR Podcast: Injured Pitchers, Brayan Bello’s Extension, Mookie At Shortstop And J.D. Davis

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The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Anthony Franco of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…

Plus, we answer your questions, including…

  • Who had the worst offseason and why is it the Angels? (25:15)
  • Fact or Fiction? The Red Sox are going to trade Masataka Yoshida. (28:50)
  • Considering the amount of effort the Tigers front office has put into fielding a major league team in the past 10 years, should Tiger fans feel slighted? “They can wait” seems to be the attitude. Should Tiger fans just stop buying Little Caesars pizza and encourage their friends to buy their pizzas elsewhere? I am sure franchise owners enjoy being associated with a cheap loser. (31:20)

Check out our past episodes!

The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff.  Check out their Facebook page here!

Rob Refsnyder Suffers Fractured Toe

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Red Sox outfielder Rob Refsnyder was hit by a pitch on his foot during yesterday’s Grapefruit League contest. He told reporters after the game that he had a “crack” in his pinky toe, per Ian Browne of MLB.com. Today, the club confirmed to reporters that Refsnyder has a fractured left pinky toe, with Pete Abraham of the Boston Globe among those to relay the news.

The club hasn’t provided a timeline for the recovery, but it seems certain that Refsnyder will begin the season on the injured list with Opening Day now just two weeks away. All injuries are different, but just for a point of reference, Joe Musgrove suffered a toe fracture in late February last year and returned to the club almost two months later in late April. Sean McAdam of MassLive estimates the injury could cost Refsnyder four to six weeks.

Refsnyder wasn’t going to be an everyday player for the Sox but was likely to be in the short side of a platoon. The righty swinger has drawn walks in 13.8% of his plate appearances against southpaws in his career, helping him produce a line of .270/.376/.380 and a 111 wRC+. That’s compared to an 8.4% walk rate, .219/.296/.308 batting line and 67 wRC+ against righties.

His lefty-mashing has been even more pronounced in recent seasons. He earned a free pass in 15.9% of his trips to the plate against lefties last year, compared to a 15.2% strikeout rate, and slashed .308/.428/.400 for a 133 wRC+.

The Sox have a number of left-handed hitters in their outfield and designated hitter rotation, including Jarren Duran, Masataka Yoshida and Wilyer Abreu. Righties Tyler O’Neill and Ceddanne Rafaela are in the mix as well but Refsnyder would have factored in on occasion when there was a tough southpaw on the mound. That won’t be option for manager Álex Cora early in the schedule as Refsnyder will be working his way back from this injury.

In the meantime, that could open up a bench role for someone else. C.J. Cron is in camp as a non-roster invitee while Bobby Dalbec is one the 40-man roster, but with one option year remaining. It was reported last month that the Sox were interested in adding a righty-swinging outfielder to help pair with Duran, Yoshida and Abreu. They later added Cron but he isn’t an option on the grass.

Given the club was already interested in a righty-swinging outfielder and Refsnyder is now set to miss some time, perhaps they will have a bit of increased urgency to get something done with a free agent before the season starts. Michael A. Taylor, Tommy Pham and Adam Duvall are still available, while free agent Robbie Grossman is a switch hitter who is better against southpaws.

Lucas Giolito Undergoes Internal Brace Procedure

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March 13: The Red Sox announced this morning that Giolito underwent an internal brace procedure to repair the UCL in his right elbow. That comes with a shorter recovery timetable than a full Tommy John surgery and will give the right-hander a chance to pitch the entire 2025 season if things go smoothly in his rehab. He’ll likely still miss the entire 2024 campaign, however.

March 11: Red Sox right-hander Lucas Giolito will undergo surgery on his right elbow tomorrow afternoon, per Pete Abraham of the Boston Globe and Sean McAdam of MassLive. It’s still unknown whether he will require a full Tommy John surgery or a brace procedure, but he’s ticketed for an extended absence either way.

It was reported last week that Giolito has a partial tear in his ulnar collateral ligament in his right arm as well as a strain of his flexor tendon. A decision had not yet been made on the path forward, with the club sending Giolito for a second opinion. After gathering further information, it now seems that it will be necessary for him to go under the knife. Giolito previously underwent Tommy John surgery as a prospect back in 2012.

It seems that some of the details of the procedure will be worked out on the operating table, as the medical team will assess the level of damage in his elbow once they get in there and then decide on the best path forward. Either way, Giolito seems slated to miss the entirety of the 2024 season. A brace procedure is a relatively new alternative to Tommy John that can come with shorter recovery times, but even those rehab windows are in the ballpark of a year.

It’s a devastating blow for both Giolito and the Red Sox. The righty posted excellent results from 2019 to 2021 with the White Sox, with a 3.47 earned run average in that time. He struggled in 2022, with his ERA bumping to 4.90, but seemed to be bouncing back in the first half of last year.

He had a 3.79 ERA through 21 starts as he approached the open market and seemed to be trending towards being one of the top free agents of the 2023-24 offseason. He was traded to the Angels but then saw his performance dip again. He had a 6.89 ERA in six starts for the Halos as that club fell out of contention and put him on waivers. The Guardians put in a claim but then Giolito had a 7.04 ERA in six starts for that club.

As recently as last summer, he seemed to be trending towards a nine-figure mega deal but instead limped into free agency with little momentum behind him. He settled for a two-year, “prove it” deal with the Red Sox, netting a guarantee of $38.5MM. He also secured an opt-out in that deal so that he could return to free agency if he posted better results in 2024.

That now won’t happen and Giolito will stay on Boston’s books through 2025. The club came into this winter looking to bolster their rotation but ended up being fairly inactive in that department. They did sign Giolito but also flipped Chris Sale to Atlanta for Vaughn Grissom, making it a sort of neutral set of moves for the rotation, depending on how the Sale/Giolito swapped was viewed.

With Giolito now set for an extended absence, the rotation is now the same as last year but without Sale. It’s possible that steps forward from their incumbent options of Nick Pivetta, Brayan Bello, Tanner Houck, Kutter Crawford or Garrett Whitlock could make that up somewhat, but it’s nonetheless unideal for the club’s big offseason splash to miss the entire season.

The club has been operating with a bit less spending capacity than in the past. Club president Sam Kennedy said last month that new chief baseball officer Craig Breslow has payroll “parameters” that he is operating under. RosterResource pegs this year’s payroll at $180MM, whereas the data at Cot’s Baseball Contracts shows the club has been as high as $236MM in the past. It appears the club doesn’t look favorably on its chances of competing in a competitive American League East and isn’t willing to spend gobs of money to chance a chance at contention that may be narrow.

Free agency still features big names like Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery. The Sox have been frequently connected to the latter but without anything seeming close, at least partially due to those apparent budgetary concerns. If the club has interest in a more affordable option for eating some innings, guys like Michael Lorenzen, Jake Odorizzi and Noah Syndergaard remain unsigned.

For Giolito, he will be focused on his rehab for the foreseeable future. He will turn 30 years old in July and will turn 31 before his deal with the Sox expires and he returns to the open market after 2025.

East Notes: Casas, Cabrera, Marsh

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The Red Sox recently signed right-hander Brayan Bello to a six-year, $55MM extension that extends their team control over the youngster by two years. That deal isn’t the only possible extension for a young potential cornerstone that Boston has pursued this winter, however, as first baseman Triston Casas confirmed to reporters that he and the Red Sox have discussed a possible extension as well. At the time, Casas indicated that while he would love to spend his entire career in Boston, the club had yet to present him with anything “enticing” to that point. In the wake of Bello’s extension, Casas recently discussed his own extension negotiations with the Red Sox, as relayed by Alex Speier of the Boston Globe.

In his comments, Casas reiterating that he hopes to play in Boston for “the rest of [his] career” while also providing an update on the discussions he’s had with Red Sox brass. Per Casas, the sides are still talking but there’s been “no numerical values” discussed to this point and that “nothing has really accelerated” to this point. Even as the 24-year-old makes clear he hopes to spend his entire career in Boston, it doesn’t seem as though he feels much urgency to get a deal done anytime soon.

“I think I have a lot of work to do before I feel like I can say I deserve that contract extension to be the long-term first baseman for the Boston Red Sox,” Casas said, as relayed by Speier. “…So if I don’t get that offer, I’m not upset at anybody in the organization. I’m not upset with myself.”

Although Casas claims to have not yet performed at a level that would warrant the extension he’s looking for, he certainly turned in a strong performance in his first full big league season last year. In 132 games with the Red Sox, Casas slashed an impressive .263/.367/.490 (129 wRC+) in 502 trips to the plate. That strong overall performance was bolstered by a torrid second half that saw Casas slash an incredible .317/.417/.617 in 54 games with a 175 wRC+ that was the fifth-best figure among all hitters with at least 200 plate appearances down the stretch, bested by only Shohei Ohtani, Matt Olson, Ronald Acuna Jr. and Mookie Betts. If the sides are unable to come to an agreement this spring, a 2024 campaign that even comes close to resembling his second half last year would surely improve Casas’s earning power considerably.

More from MLB’s East divisions…

  • Marlins right-hander Edward Cabrera was removed from his start against the Cardinals today before throwing a pitch, with Jordan McPherson of the Miami Herald noting that Cabrera experienced a bout of tightness in his right shoulder while warming up for the game. McPherson adds that Cabrera’s removal from the game was precautionary, per Miami, and that Cabrera told reporters a few hours after being removed from the game that he was “already starting to feel better.” While both club and player are indicating that the issue isn’t a particularly severe issue, it’s worth noting that Cabrera was sidelined by a shoulder impingement in June of last year and missed a month of action. Should Cabrera manage to avoid a trip to the injured list to open the season, he figures to Jesus Luzardo and Eury Perez in the rotation. Southpaws A.J. Puk, Trevor Rogers, and Ryan Weathers figure to compete for the final two spots in the club’s rotation, though Braxton Garrett figures to join the rotation once he’s recovered from his own shoulder woes.
  • Phillies outfielder Brandon Marsh has yet to appear in a game this spring while rehabbing from arthroscopic knee surgery he underwent in early February. While the initial timeline for his return to action was three-to-four weeks following the surgery, Alex Coffey of The Philadelphia Inquirer indicates that Marsh is not quite ready to return to game action at this point. Coffey adds that club manager Rob Thomson recently indicated that Marsh is “on track” with regards to his rehab and could get into a Grapefruit League game by the end of the week. Marsh, 26, slashed a strong .277/.372/.458 in 133 games for the Phillies last year and figures to be a regular fixture in the club’s outfield mix this season alongside Nick Castellanos and Johan Rojas.

Injury Notes: Rangers, Tigers, Treinen, Martin

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Orthopedic surgeon and Rangers head physician Dr. Keith Meister recently spoke to Ken Rosenthal and Eno Sarris of The Athletic to discuss the increasing number of injuries around the game, which he suggests could be due to the prevalence of sweepers and hard changeups in today’s game. Meister suggested to Rosenthal and Sarris that “spin is worse” than even velocity in terms of its impact on pitcher health, as both of the aforementioned pitches put additional stress on the pitcher’s arm. Rosenthal and Sarris went on to note that Meister shared his findings on the matter with league executives for a study focused on injury prevention, with the league intending to create a task force on the matter once the study is complete.

It seems as though players remain skeptical of the idea that certain breaking balls are creating an injury problem in the league, with Chris McCosky of The Detroit News noting that several Tigers pitchers seemed to hold reservations regarding the concept. Southpaw Tarik Skubal told McCosky that he believes velocity to have “more of a correlation” with injury than specific pitches, while adding that he doesn’t believe “any one thing” has led to the increase in pitcher injuries in recent years. One of the game’s most promising young lefties, Skubal was limited to just 36 starts across the past two seasons by flexor-tendon surgery. For their part, Rosenthal and Sarris note in their own article that many pitchers in the big leagues view injuries as an “occupational hazard” and are unbothered by the spiking injury rates around the game.

Those hurlers aren’t alone in uncertainty regarding Meister’s assertion, with Rosenthal and Sarris pointing out that while Meister suggests that increased grip strength is being used to improve spin rates at the expense of pitcher health, one pitching coach noted that “research is divided” on the correlation between grip strength and spin rates. Regardless of its cause, there’s no doubt that pitchers have been facing more injuries in recent years. Rosenthal and Sarris note that, per Meister, he operated upon around 230 elbow ligaments in 2023 and that this year is “way ahead” of that same pace. Lucas Giolito, Kodai Senga, and Justin Verlander are among the pitchers who have dealt with elbow and shoulder issues this spring, while the likes of Jacob deGrom, Max Scherzer, Shane McClanahan, Brandon Woodruff and Shohei Ohtani are among the many top pitchers who will be sidelined for at least the first half of the 2024 campaign (if not longer) after undergoing surgery last year.

More injury-related notes from around the league…

  • Dodgers right-hander Blake Treinen was struck by a comebacker during today’s spring training game against Texas, with The Athletic’s Fabian Ardaya among those to note that the Dodgers diagnosed the issue as a right rib contusion following Treinen’s departure from the game. Treinen is set to undergo both x-rays and a CT scan in the wake of the incident, with manager Dave Roberts indicating to reporters (including Ardaya) that the club will have more information on the right-hander’s status tomorrow. Treinen, 36 in June, has long been among the most talented relievers in the game but has struggled to stay on the field in recent years, pitching just five innings since the end of the 2021 season. Should he remain healthy enough to stay on the mound, he figures to be a key piece of the relief mix in L.A. alongside the likes of Evan Phillips and Brusdar Graterol.
  • Red Sox righty Chris Martin was pulled from a live batting practice session earlier today after a pair of warm-up pitches, with Chris Cotillo of MassLive indicating that, per manager Alex Cora, Martin was suffering from groin tightness. Cora added that the issue had “nothing” to do with Martin’s arm and that the club figures to re-evaluate Martin in the coming days. The soon-to-be 37-year-old hurler is coming off a dominant season on the mound for Boston last year where he posted a 1.05 ERA in 55 appearances. Martin has found his name in the rumor mill this winter as a potential trade candidate, and while it’s possible that the veteran’s groin issue could be a cause of concern for potential suitors, he appears less likely to be moved following the deal that sent fellow set-up option John Schreiber to the Royals and instead seems likely to join fellow veteran trade candidate Kenley Jansen at the back of the Red Sox bullpen to open the year.

Latest On Jordan Montgomery, Red Sox

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The Red Sox have been continually connected to free agent Jordan Montgomery as he has remained unsigned throughout the offseason, but without a deal seeming close to fruition. Jon Heyman of The New York Post reports today that the two sides have stayed in contact but that the lefty is looking for a seven-year deal that the club is unwilling to give.

There are arguments for and against the Red Sox making a huge splash to improve the rotation at this point. From the start of the offseason, upgrading the starting staff has been a priority but the club hasn’t done it. They traded away Chris Sale and then signed Lucas Giolito, which amounted to something close to a lateral move, depending how one feels about those two pitchers. But it was recently reported that Giolito has a partial tear of his UCL and a flexor strain. The next steps still aren’t known but season-ending surgery is a possibility.

If Giolito is out of commission, then the Sox are essentially going into the season with the same rotation as last year but without Sale. Nick Pivetta struggled enough last year to get bumped to the bullpen, though he did finish the year strong. Brayan Bello had a decent year and the club clearly believes in him, since they just signed him to an extension, but he seemed to run out of gas late in the year and the low strikeout rate is still a bit of a concern. Kutter Crawford, Tanner Houck and Garrett Whitlock are talented arms to fill out the rest of the staff but those three are still not fully established as starters, with none of that trio having hit 130 innings in a big league season. Cooper Criswell, Brandon Walter and Chris Murphy are on the 40-man as depth but no one in that group has 50 big league innings pitched yet.

Adding someone like Montgomery would be a clear upgrade, both this year and in the future. He has thrown 524 1/3 innings over the past three seasons with a 3.48 earned run average. He tossed another 31 frames in last year’s postseason with a 2.90 ERA, forming a key part of the Rangers’ World Series championship club. Pivetta is slated for free agency after 2024, so the need for rotation help should be even greater a year from now.

But the flip side of the argument is that the Sox may want to wait to put another big contract on their books. They are considered by many observers to be the weakest club in the American League East. The club’s lack of activity this offseason suggests they may view things similarly. Perhaps they don’t want to commit a huge pile of money to Montgomery when they don’t have faith in their current squad.

When a club signs a player to a long-term deal, they generally expect to recoup the most value in the early years when the player is still relatively close to their prime, and clubs are also aware that the later years might be a bit more painful. If the Sox don’t think they have a path to contention right now, perhaps they don’t have much desire to get a deal done with the 31-year-old Montgomery.

Instead, they could use 2024 as a year to evaluate younger players like Ceddanne Rafaela, Wilyer Abreu, Vaughn Grissom, Kyle Teel, Nick Yorke, Marcelo Mayer, Roman Anthony and others. They could trade impending free agents like Pivetta, Kenley Jansen, Chris Martin and Tyler O’Neill this year to further stock up on young talent, then decide on the best time to make a big strike in the future. They could bolster the rotation in the short-term by signing someone like Michael Lorenzen or Jake Odorizzi.

RosterResource currently lists their competitive balance tax figure as $211MM, which is $26MM below this year’s base threshold of $237MM. They could fit in a big deal for someone like Montgomery without going over the line but it would be fairly close. Next year’s CBT number, on the other hand, is only at $133MM. That doesn’t include raises for arbitration-eligible players but the appetite for a giving out a big contract might be higher going forward than it is now.

For Montgomery, the fact that he is still unsigned as we approach the middle of March suggests that no club has met his asking price yet. It’s understandable that he is looking to maximize his guarantee here this winter, as he is coming off a great season and just helped the Rangers win the World Series.

This winter’s market has forced some other free agents to pivot to short-term deals, most notably Cody Bellinger and Matt Chapman. Those two, like Montgomery and Blake Snell, are all represented by the Boras Corporation. Boras clients have generally had a stronger willingness to wait out the market than players with other agencies. But Bellinger and Chapman didn’t find the long-term deals they were seeking and pivoted to shorter pacts with opt-outs that will allow them to return to free agency next winter or the one after that. Reporting has suggested Snell is willing to do the same.

Montgomery may be less inclined to do so, however, since he didn’t receive a qualifying offer at the start of this offseason. Players traded midseason are ineligible to receive a QO and Montgomery was flipped from the Cardinals to the Rangers prior to the deadline. That means he can currently be signed without the club forfeiting any draft picks or international bonus pool money. If he were to pivot to a short-term deal with opt-outs, he would be highly likely to receive a QO whenever he decided to return to the open market, which would put a damper on his earning power at that point. He would also obviously be older and therefore less likely to find a club willing to make a long-term commitment to him.

It’s theoretically possible that he could sign a short-term deal and then be traded at midseason again, though he wouldn’t be able to control that. Clubs are also fairly unwilling to acquire such contracts at the deadline, as they would be taking on the downside of being committed to the player for many years if they got hurt and decided not to trigger their opt-out.

With Montgomery seemingly sticking to his seven-year ask, it suggests he and his reps are perhaps aware that the he is a less viable fit for the pivot to a short-term pact than Bellinger, Chapman or Snell. But he hasn’t found the right deal yet and time will tell if he does end up getting it.

Red Sox Sign Brayan Bello To Extension

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The Red Sox announced they have signed right-hander Brayan Bello to a six-year extension with a club option for 2030. It will give the team an extra two years of control over the 24-year-old and reportedly has a $55MM guarantee. Bello had previously been controllable through the 2028 season, but the Sox have locked in one would-be free agent year and also secured a club option for a second season that’s said to be valued at $21MM. Bello is represented by ISE Baseball.

Chris Cotillo of MassLive was among those to relay the full breakdown. Bello will get a $1MM signing bonus and salary of $1MM here in 2024, followed by successive salaries of $2.5MM, $6MM, $8.5MM, $16MM and $19MM. There’s also a $1MM buyout on the $21MM club option. There are also bonuses and escalators based on Cy Young voting and All-Star selections.

Bello, 25 in May, was signed out of the Dominican Republic for a modest bonus of $28K. But he continued to find success as he moved up the minor league ladder, climbing prospect lists in the process. Baseball America had him in the 15-20 range of their list of the top 30 Red Sox prospects in 2020 and 2021, then vaulted him up to #5 going into 2022. That was based on a 2021 season wherein Bello tossed 95 1/3 innings on the farm with a 3.87 earned run average, 32.8% strikeout rate and 7.7% walk rate while also keeping about half of balls in play on the ground.

He was added to the club’s 40-man roster late in 2021 to keep him out of that year’s Rule 5 draft. In 2022, he posted a 2.76 ERA at the Triple-A level and also got to make a brief major league debut, tossing 57 1/3 innings. His 4.71 ERA in that time wasn’t especially strong but his 55.7% ground ball rate and .404 BABIP suggested at least some of that was misfortune.

Last year got out to a shaky start, as he began the year on the injured list due to some elbow inflammation. He returned in mid-April and had a couple of shaky starts before the Sox decided to option him to the minors. An injury to Garrett Whitlock led to a quick return for Bello and it was at that point that he put together a strong stretch of work that established him as a viable big league hurler.

From his April 28 recall through the end of August, he made 21 starts for the Sox with a 3.20 ERA. His 19% strikeout rate was below average but his 6.4% walk rate and 55% ground ball rate were very strong. He seemed to run out of gas at that point, as he allowed 22 earned run in 26 September innings. Between the poor finish and the rough start, Bello ended up with a 4.24 ERA on the year overall, but the middle section of the season clearly opened some eyes.

It’s obviously a bit favorable to Bello to exclude his worst results, but he was a bit banged up at the beginning of the year and the thud at the end could be chalked up to last year being his largest innings tally thus far. The Sox clearly believe he’s capable of taking a step forward if they are willing to invest in him. He’s already shown he can keep the ball on the ground and the strikeouts might come around eventually, as his 11% swinging strike rate in his career so far is right around league average and he’s punched out 28.9% of hitters faced in the minors.

The Sox have very little starting pitching certainty going forward. Lucas Giolito was signed to a two-year deal this offseason but he now seems to be facing a significant absence due to a partially-torn UCL and a flexor tendon strain. Nick Pivetta is slated for free agency after 2024. That leaves their long-term rotation mix consisting of Bello, Kutter Crawford, Tanner Houck and Garrett Whitlock. Those are talented arms, but each of Crawford, Whitlock and Houck are still somewhat unestablished, with none of them having tossed 130 innings in a major league season yet. On BA’s current list of the top 30 prospects in the system, only two of the top 10 are pitchers, with Wikelman Gonzalez at #7 and Luis Perales at #9. The latter has yet to reach Double-A and the former has less than 50 innings pitched at that level.

Given those options, it’s understandable why the Sox wanted to build around Bello. And from the player’s perspective, his small bonus means he has yet to bank meaningful earnings, unlike a top draft pick or hyped-up international player who may already have millions stashed away. Bello’s service time clock is currently at one year and 82 days, meaning he wouldn’t have even reached arbitration until after the 2025 season.

A deal has seemed like a strong possibility for some time now. Back in January of last year, the young righty expressed his openness to such an arrangement and reporting from July suggested the club would likely broach the subject at some point. A few weeks ago, further reporting indicated that the two sides were discussing a new deal and it seems they are now making some headway.

As shown in MLBTR’s Contract Tracker, Bello is just the fifth pitcher with between one and two years of MLB service time to sign an extension in the past eight years. The two most recent examples — Cincinnati’s Hunter Greene and Atlanta’s Spencer Strider — signed six-year deals worth $53MM and $75MM, respectively. Strider’s contract is a record for this service class and was never likely to be matched by Bello. But the Boston right-hander will settle in just north of Greene’s deal, which was surely a point of focus for Bello and his camp.

Extensions usually feature climbing salaries as the years progress, roughly mirroring the arbitration process. The Sox currently have little on the books that would coincide with the most expensive years of this potential extension. Rafael Devers is under contract through 2033, but no one else is guaranteed a contract beyond 2027. Trevor Story and Masataka Yoshida are the only players guaranteed a salary beyond 2026. Adding Bello to that mix will put another salary of note on the payroll and modestly add to the team’s luxury ledger, but the extension is nonetheless an affordable means of locking in some stability while giving the team some upside in the event that Bello takes his game to a new level.

Alex Speier of the Boston Globe first reported that the two sides were in “advanced” talks on a deal. ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel broke the news that the two parties had agreed on a six-year, $55MM deal.

Tanner Houck, Red Sox Have Discussed Extension

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The Red Sox have reportedly agreed to an extension with young right-hander Brayan Bello but seem to have at least some interest in hammering out another. Righty Tanner Houck told Rob Bradford of WEEI that he has discussed an extension with the club, though nothing is imminent. He had previously discussed the matter with the club a couple of years ago, with nothing developing at that time.

Houck, 28 in June, has posted some intriguing results in the majors but hasn’t yet fully established himself as a viable starter. He has thrown 256 innings over the past four seasons with a 3.86 earned run average. His 24.9% strikeout rate and 51% ground ball rare are both a few ticks better than par while his 8.8% walk rate is right around average.

But last year’s 106 innings pitched were a career high at the big league level, his first time getting over the 70 line. Missing time last year wasn’t his fault, as he was hit in the face by a comebacker and suffered a facial fracture. That injury required surgery and kept Houck on the injured list for over two months. That’s obviously fluky in nature but it still prevented him from getting to a full starter’s workload. In 2022, he also missed time due to lower back inflammation which required surgery, capping him at 60 innings for the year.

Beyond the fact that Houck hasn’t fully built up his workload, there’s also the fact that his results have been better out of the bullpen. For his career, he has a 4.17 as a starter but a 2.68 mark as a reliever, though the latter figure is in a fairly small sample size of just 53 2/3 innings and his peripherals are actually fairly close. His 25.9% strikeout rate as a reliever is just barely higher than his 24.6% clip as a starter, whereas his 9.5% walk rate as a reliever is actually higher than his 8.6% clip as a starter. The wide difference in the ERAs could be down to a bit of luck, as he has a .298 BABIP as a starter but a .274 out of the ’pen, in addition to having a 69.4% strand rate when starting games as opposed to 77.3% as a reliever. His 3.70 and 3.12 FIP as a starter and reliever respectively suggest the difference may not be so wide.

On the other hand, he has significant splits, with lefties having hit him at a .251/.343/.420 rate thus far compared to a line of .214/.282/.283 from righties. If that continues, he might be better served working in a bullpen role where he can be more easily protected from exposure to opposing lefty hitters.

Houck should get plenty of opportunity to prove himself in the rotation this year. The Red Sox came into the winter looking to upgrade the starting staff but haven’t done so. They traded away Chris Sale and signed Lucas Giolito, but the latter now seems like he may be slated for a significant injury absence due to a partial UCL tear and flexor tendon strain.

Assuming Giolito will at least miss the start of the season, the Boston rotation consists of Bello, Houck, Nick Pivetta, Kutter Crawford and Garrett Whitlock. Pivetta is an impending free agent and could wind up on the trade block if the Sox are out of contention this summer. Guys like Cooper Criswell, Brandon Walter and Chris Murphy are also on the 40-man roster but none of that trio has even 50 innings pitched in the big leagues yet.

Given Houck’s current status, it may be difficult to line up on a deal. Since he’s unproven as a starter over a full season, the club may not want to make a significant commitment to him. From Houck’s perspective, he may not want to take a low-ball offer at this moment. If he takes advantage of the open rotation in Boston and puts together a strong season in 2024, he could increase his earning power significantly.

He currently has two years and 100 days of service time. That means he is slated to qualify for arbitration for the first time after 2024 and is on pace for free agency after 2027, which will be his age-31 season. Looking to Boston’s long-term payroll picture, Rafael Devers is under contract through 2033, but no one else is guaranteed a contract beyond 2027. Trevor Story and Masataka Yoshida are the only players guaranteed a salary beyond 2026.

MLBTR Podcast: The Giants Sign Chapman, Zack Wheeler’s Extension, And Snell And Montgomery Remain

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The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Tim Dierkes of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…

  • The Giants sign Matt Chapman (2:50)
  • Why do the Giants and other clubs keep giving players these opt-out deals? (6:45)
  • What is the logic with Chapman and Cody Bellinger settling for these short-term deals? (10:20)
  • What’s next for the Giants? Will they trade J.D. Davis? Go after Blake Snell or Jordan Montgomery? (13:50)
  • Why didn’t the Yankees or Mariners go after Chapman? (17:00)
  • Phillies sign Zack Wheeler to extension (18:30)
  • Should players focus more on guarantees or average annual values? (20:15)
  • Did Shohei Ohtani not push things forward enough for players? (22:15)
  • Was Wheeler not concerned about maximizing his guarantee? (25:10)
  • What does the future look like for the Phillies? (26:35)
  • What’s up with Snell and Montgomery now? Could the Orioles swoop in? (29:35)
  • Does the Lucas Giolito news spur the Red Sox to jump on Snell or Montgomery? (31:20)
  • What about other dark horses for Snell or Montgomery? (34:15)
  • The case for the Brewers being a dark horse (35:55)

Plus, we answer your questions, including…

  • Is the late signing by the Boras clients a result of just how the market played out or the strategy of holding out? How does Boras spin this? (39:15)
  • Are we seeing the end of the Scott Boras era? Especially with players more to their mid-30s. I’m not sure how you could objectively look at how the offseason has gone for his clients and think it was a win for them. (44:45)

Check out our past episodes!

  • How Cody Bellinger’s Deal Affects The Other Free Agents And Why The Offseason Played Out Like This – listen here
  • Finding Fits For The “Boras Four,” Which Teams Could Still Spend? And Rob Manfred In His Last Term – listen here
  • Jorge Soler, Veteran Catcher Signings and the Padres’ Payroll Crunch – listen here

The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff.  Check out their Facebook page here!

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