Red Sox Rumors

After reports emerged last night that bidding for the services for free agent superstar Juan Soto could reach beyond the $700MM threshold, that possibility appears to have now come to pass. Jon Heyman of the New York Post reported this evening that both the Yankees and Mets have recently pushed their offers to the $710-730MM range as the slugger’s free agency nears its conclusion. Heyman suggests that while it’s “believed” that the Mets have placed the higher bid of the two New York clubs, the deals appear to be within the same range. He goes on to add that there’s been no indication of the Red Sox, Blue Jays, or Dodgers being eliminated from the Soto sweepstakes to this point despite the record-setting offers from both New York clubs.

The 26-year-old phenom has long been expected to easily beat the record for net present value Shohei Ohtani’s megadeal with the Dodgers set last winter, which is estimated to be in the range of $461MM after accounting for the pact’s heavy deferrals. That said, it’s still somewhat shocking that the bidding for Soto has soared high enough that beating the $700MM guarantee Ohtani received last winter before factoring in deferred money is on the table. It’s possible that Soto’s deal could include some deferred money of its own, of course, but even with that possibility in mind it seems increasingly likely that he’ll shatter not only expectations entering the offseason but all previous precedents for guaranteed and annual money for MLB contracts.

Soto is in position to shatter records for a reason, of course. The youngster is particularly attractive to clubs given the fact that he’s marketing his age-26 season in free agency this winter. That extreme youth is uncommon in free agency, especially for top talent, and it allowed right-hander Yoshinobu Yamamoto to secure a record-breaking deal for starting pitchers last winter despite having never thrown a single pitch in MLB. By contrast, Soto is a four-time All Star and two-time MVP finalist who has never been less than 43% better than league average at the plate by measure of wRC+ during his career to this point. Soto’s combination of youth and track record hasn’t been seen in the majors since Alex Rodriguez’s free agency more than two decades ago, and in that time teams have only grown to value youth even more highly.

Per Heyman’s report, all five known finalists for Soto’s services remain in the mix to land the superstar, who is generally expected to make his decision within the next day or two. Heyman suggests that the Yankees, Mets, Red Sox, Dodgers, and Blue Jays have all offered Soto at least $600MM, with the Dodgers’ offer coming in as the lowest of the five by a substantial amount. Beyond that, though, Heyman notes that the other four clubs have made offers that are “believed” to be relatively close to each other, and it’s unclear which of those four clubs has made the highest bid to this point. What’s more, Heyman suggests that Soto won’t necessarily choose the highest bidder, though it’s unclear what might motivate Soto to take a lesser offer. The Mets and Yankees have generally been viewed as the favorites to land Soto by the industry throughout his free agency, but whether that perception aligns with his actual preferences remains a mystery. The Red Sox, for their part, reportedly pushed for an additional meeting with Soto’s camp earlier this week, though it’s unclear if that request was or will be granted before the star makes his decision.

As the Juan Soto decision nears, the expected contract seemingly continues to climb. Jon Heyman of the New York Post writes that the price could push to $700MM. Heyman suggests that the Mets, Yankees, Red Sox and Blue Jays may all be near that mark. The Dodgers are also a finalist, but various reports have put them as the least likely of the quintet to land him.

On Tuesday, The Athletic reported that multiple teams had made offers at or above $600MM. Agent Scott Boras said at the time that Soto had begun to narrow the field, though he didn’t specify a timetable for his decision. Most reports indicate he’s likely to sign by the end of next week’s Winter Meetings, perhaps as soon as this weekend.

According to Heyman, teams have continued to adjust their offers in recent days. Alex Speier of the Boston Globe reported last night that the Red Sox were hoping for a final meeting with Soto’s camp to get the outfielder to name the specific price at which he’d put pen to paper. It’s not clear if Soto would grant any team that sit-down.

Shohei Ohtani’s deal was initially reported as a 10-year, $700MM contract. The extreme nature of the deferrals in the Ohtani deal, which were reported a few days after he announced he was signing with the Dodgers, dramatically reduced the net present value. MLB valued the contract around $461MM for luxury tax purposes. That’s still an all-time record. Soto was unquestionably going to beat $461MM and widely expected to go well beyond $500MM. (MLBTR predicted a 13-year, $600MM contract at the beginning of the offseason.) Getting to $700MM without deferrals would shatter prior contractual precedents.

Ohtani’s $46.06MM annual salary — again adjusting for deferrals — is the record for average annual value. Bryce Harper’s 13-year contract is the longest free agent deal in history. Soto would likely need to break both records to get to $700MM — potentially on a 14-year deal at $50MM annually. It shouldn’t be much longer before we learn if the market will go to those heights.

The floor for Juan Soto’s contract appears to be $600MM. Ken Rosenthal, Evan Drellich and Brendan Kuty of the Athletic report that every team that remains in the Soto bidding has made a formal offer at or above that number.

With multiple $600MM+ offers in hand, there’s not much chance of Soto pivoting to a short-term deal. Jon Heyman of the New York Post wrote last week that the four-time All-Star wasn’t interested in taking a shorter term to prioritize his annual earnings. Heyman suggested Soto was seeking a 15-year contract. It’s not clear whether that’ll be on the table, though tonight’s report from The Athletic indicates he’s likely to sign for at least 12 years. That’ll presumably come with one or more opt-out chances as well.

Agent Scott Boras did not comment publicly about contract terms. However, he told reporters this evening that Soto has begun to narrow the field. “We’ve had meetings with a number of franchises. He’s begun the process of eliminating teams and doing things. Juan is a very methodical thinker, so we’ll see, but I don’t think anything is imminent in the near future,” Boras said at today’s introductory presser for another of his clients, Blake Snell.

While Soto reportedly fielded interest from 11 teams at the beginning of the offseason, it seems a clear five suitors have emerged: the Yankees, Mets, Blue Jays, Red Sox and Dodgers. Most speculation throughout the industry is that he’ll land with one of the New York franchises. To that end, Rosenthal, Drellich and Kuty write that many people around the game expect that Mets’ owner Steve Cohen will refuse to be outbid.

That said, there’s been chatter in recent weeks that the Red Sox are making a serious push. Meanwhile, SNY’s Andy Martino and Jim Duquette of MLB Network Radio on SiriusXM (X link) each suggested last night that the Blue Jays might come in with the highest bid at the end of the day. Reporting has generally cast the Dodgers as something of a long shot, but it’s impossible to count them out on any top-tier free agent.

In any case, Soto seems mere days away from establishing a record for the top net present value in MLB history. That’s currently held by Shohei Ohtani, whose deal is valued by MLB just shy of $461MM after accounting for deferrals. There was never much doubt that Soto would beat that, though it was fair to wonder whether the bidding would stop somewhere between $500MM and $600MM.

At the start of the offseason, MLBTR predicted Soto would receive exactly $600MM over 13 years — a number that looks as if it’ll be light. While it doesn’t seem that decision will come within the next 24 hours, there’s a widespread belief that Soto will make his call by the end of next week’s Winter Meetings.