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John Lannan Drawing Interest

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The Red Sox, Tigers and Astros are watching John Lannan and a deal involving the left-hander is "likely" Danny Knobler of CBS Sports tweets. The Mets and Padres had interest, but balked at his $5MM salary.

Lannan doesn't have a guaranteed rotation spot in Washington after posting a 3.70 ERA with 5.2 K/9 and 3.7 BB/9 in 184 2/3 innings last year, so he's a potential trade candidate this spring. The Blue Jays, Royals and Tigers are among the teams monitoring the market for starting pitching, Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports reported today.

Red Sox Notes: John Lannan, Jorge Soler

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Here's the latest on the Red Sox, who are trying to get back to the playoffs after two straight years on the outside looking in…

  • The Red Sox did not make an offer for Nationals starter John Lannan, reports WEEI.com's Alex Speier. Yesterday we heard that they had made an offer for the southpaw, but weren't close. Speier says the Sox intend to monitor Lannan's situation this spring, but there is no indication they will seriously pursue him.
  • Boston will pursue 19-year-old Cuban outfielder Jorge Soler, reports Speier. Soler is still waiting to be declared a free agent by MLB, but Speier says most in the industry (including the Red Sox) expect him to sign with the Cubs.
  • Check out our Transaction Tracker for a recap of all the Red Sox's moves this offseason.

NL East Notes: Nitkowski, Lannan, Nickeas, Harper

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Earlier today, we learned that the Mets may look into dealing righty reliever D.J. Carrasco. Here are a couple more notes on the Amazin's within this batch of NL East links …

  • The Mets like what they saw out of C.J. Nitkowski's audition on Thursday and are working to sign him to a minor league deal, writes Ken Davidoff of Newsday.  An agreement seems likely between the club and the 39-year-old.
  • The Nationals are taking offers on lefty John Lannan, but they're not desperate to trade him, as his $5MM salary for this season is manageable, tweets Jim Bowden of ESPN.com. The Red Sox have made an offer for Lannan, but it wasn't close, Bowden adds.
  • Mets catcher Mike Nickeas may not necessarily be a lock to nab the team's backup catcher role despite already being on the 40-man roster, writes Adam Rubin of ESPNNewYork.com. The Mets may instead go with Rob Johnson, in which case Nickeas would be placed on waivers and be expected to clear.
  • Nats prized prospect Byrce Harper will likely begin the season in the minor leagues despite manager Davey Johnson's desire to have the right fielder break camp with the big club, tweets Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com. However, a midseason callup is possible for Harper, Heyman adds. Harper turned 19 in October and has a full season of minor league experience under his belt after being the No. 1 overall draft pick in 2010.
  • Mets skipper Terry Collins acknowledged to Joel Sherman of the New York Post that he may in fact be only a transitional manager for the club, perhaps being replaced when the team is ready to compete again: “I realize the possibilities,” Collins said. The Mets have already exercised Collins' 2013 option, however.

AL East Notes: Wieters, Yankees, Rodriguez, Red Sox

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News and notes out of the American League East..

  • Orioles catcher Matt Wieters told reporters today that he doesn't hold a grudge against the club for renewing his contract, writes Peter Schmuck of The Baltimore Sun.  The Scott Boras client will be eligible for arbitration after this season and can hit the open market after the 2015 season.
  • Joel Sherman of the New York Post offers up two ideas for how the Yankees can stay below the $189MM threshold while keeping their core in tact.  His first idea is to extend and rework Alex Rodriguez's after the 2013 season in order to lower the average value of his contract.  Rodriguez is currently slated to make $86MM over four years starting in 2014 but Sherman suggests that the Bombers could turn $24MM in uncertain bonuses into a $14MM add-on for '18.  The Bombers could also suppress the average salary of Robinson Cano and Curtis Granderson by extending them under their current deals rather than after 2014.
  • As he waited for the Yankees' call this offseason, Eric Chavez wasn't sure if he'd be playing this year, writes Jeff Bradley of the Star-Ledger.  Chavez, 34, also had conversations with the White Sox but ultimately chose to return to New York.
  • Bobby Valentine & Co. are working to solve the Red Sox bullpen puzzle, which involves several relievers who are out-of-options, writes Alex Speier of WEEI.com.
  • Red Sox closer Andrew Bailey took a long and strange path to wind up where he is today, writes Peter Abraham of The Boston Globe. 

Cafardo On Phillies, Blanton, Lannan, Ramirez

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In this morning's column, Nick Cafardo of The Boston Globe takes a look at some of the emerging storylines in the American League East.  In New York, Francisco Cervelli is set to be the backup catcher, but could become trade bait for the Yankees with Austin Romine knocking on the door.  The catching situation with Tampa Bay is also worth keeping an eye on as Jose Molina needs a backup.  The Rays could pick up Ivan Rodriguez or deal from their pitching surplus to fill the vacancy.  If they trade Jeff Niemann or Wade Davis, Cafardo writes that it would be for a catcher.  Here's more from Cafardo..

  • The Phillies are making it clear to teams that they would eat as much as $2MM of Joe Blanton’s $8MM deal in a trade.  Moving Blanton would allow the Phillies to have payroll flexibility and bump Kyle Kendrick into the No. 5 spot in the rotation.  Yesterday, Blue Jays GM Alex Anthopoulos scouted the Phillies game and left after Blanton's exit.
  • Meanwhile, the Nationals continue to dangle left-hander John Lannan.  The club is spreading word that the 27-year-old is available in a deal, particularly one for a center fielder.
  • The Braves are in need of a left field power bat and right-hander Jair Jurrjens could be the trade bait for one.
  • At some point, Blue Jays shortstop Yunel Escobar will have to move to second base to make room for Cuban shortstop Adeiny Hechavarria.  Escobar loves being a shortstop, so there is a bit of trepidation among some in the organization as to how he will accept this.
  • Meanwhile, many feel that the Marlins' Hanley Ramirez won't stay happy for long at third base and eventually will demand a trade.
  • With several teams in the market for a center fielder, Cafardo asked a National League scout if the Yankees would entertain a deal for Brett Gardner.  Gardner is currently slated to start in left field for the Yanks but a National League scout said that at some point the club might seek out a more traditional left field option.
  • The Red Sox are impressed with Chris Carpenter's live fastball but privately they are not happy with what they wound up getting in exchange for Theo Epstein.

AL East Notes: Blue Jays, Blanton, Yankees, Pineda

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On this day in 1966, the Orioles acquired catcher Cam Carreon from the Indians in exchange for leftfielder Lou Piniella.  Sweet Lou became an everyday major leaguer in 1969 with the Royals and made his way back to the American League East with the Bombers in 1974.  Here's what's happening in the AL East today..

  • Blue Jays GM Alex Anthopoulos scouted today's Phillies game and left after Joe Blanton exited the game, tweets Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports.  
  • Even though Brandon League has blossomed into an All-Star closer for the Mariners, Anthopoulos has no regrets about the trade that shipped League to Seattle and brought Brandon Morrow to Toronto, writes Tyler Kepner of the New York Times.  The Blue Jays signed Morrow to three-year, $21MM contract extension this winter with a team option for 2015.
  • Red Sox right-hander Michael Bowden is out-of-options and fighting to make the big league roster, writes Alex Speier of WEEI.com.  The 25-year-old appeared in 14 games for the BoSox last season.
  • There's a great deal of excitement surrounding Michael Pineda as he gets set for his first year in pinstripes, but GM Brian Cashman is looking to pump the brakes on fans' expectations for him, writes Jeff Bradley of the Star-Ledger.  Cashman doesn't view Pineda as an "instant number two" but instead as a long-term asset with a great deal of promise.

Quick Hits: Yankees, Orioles, Ramirez, Red Sox

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Friday night linkage..

Red Sox Notes: Rotation, Tazawa, Melancon

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The latest on the Red Sox, via Alex Speier of WEEI.com…

AL East Notes: Rivera, Roberts, Moore, Cherington

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It was on this day in 1985 that the Blue Jays and Dave Stieb finalized one of the more unique contracts in baseball history — an 11-year deal worth a guaranteed $16.6MM and (with incentives) possibly worth as much as $25MM.  Larry Stone of the Seattle Times looked back at the contract in 2010, noting that while the Jays absorbed some criticism for the deal at the time, they got a bargain in the long run when Stieb developed into one of the best pitchers of his era.  In 1991, the Jays reworked three years of the contract to pay Stieb an extra $4.35MM as a gesture of gratitude for his performance.

Here's some news from all around the AL East…

  • Yankees closer Mariano Rivera denied a New York Post report from yesterday that claimed he would announce his possible retirement plans before the All-Star Break.  Rivera told Wallace Matthews of ESPN New York that "nothing's changed" about his future plans and that he will "tell everybody what my plans are at the same time after the season."
  • Brian Roberts isn't sure when, or even if, he'll be able to return to the Orioles following a series of concussions, he tells Jon Heyman of CBS Sports.  Roberts says he has stopped trying to guess when he may be able to resume his career, though he notes that his recovery is "progressing" and he "has more good days than bad days."
  • Rays southpaw Matt Moore tops Baseball America's preseason list of the top 20 rookies in the game.  Moore is the only AL East representative on the list, though former Yankee prospect Jesus Montero (now with the Mariners) clocks in at the #3 position.
  • "We need some guys to step up on our pitching staff," Red Sox GM Ben Cherington tells MLB.com's Ian Browne.  The Sox will be looking at pitching or outfield depth as they conduct their usual scouting of other teams' Spring Training camps.  Also in this in-depth interview, Cherington discusses his first winter as a general manager, the difficulty in parting with long-time Red Sox stars Jason Varitek and Tim Wakefield, and what he learned from Theo Epstein.
  • The Blue Jays may be the only team that could be a fit for Derrek Lee, writes Fangraphs' Chris Cwik.  Lee could be an alternative to Adam Lind at first if Lind struggles, or Lee could at least platoon if Lind again struggles to hit left-handed pitching.  Though Cwik was pretty hesitant about Lee's chances of playing anywhere in the Majors in 2012, I'm not sure Toronto works as a landing spot either; the Jays have Edwin Encarnacion backing up at first, Travis Snider or Eric Thames as DH candidates, plus Ben Francisco and Rajai Davis as right-handed bench bats.   

The Next Frontier Of Baseball Analysis

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The Sloan Sports Analytics Conference assembled an excellent baseball panel this year in Boston.  Host Rob Neyer asked participants their thoughts on the next frontier in baseball analysis, and a few highlights follow.

Red Sox senior advisor of baseball operations Bill James gave a two-part answer.  First, James feels "one of the things we most need to understand better is how levels of competition fit together so that the information we get from one level can be interpreted at another level in a way that is more helpful."  James says "we really don't have a clue" how levels such as college, Double-A, and Japan fit together.  Second, James believes that teams and players act in their best interest, even if it's not beneficial for the game as a whole.  He gave an example of a player stepping out of the box to regain his focus.  That 30 second break helps the player perform his best, but delays of this nature are bad for baseball in general, because they cause many to consider the game boring to watch.

Astros GM Jeff Luhnow wasn't actually answering Neyer's question at the time, but he volunteered his thoughts, saying, "The frontier from my perspective is really turning that player evaluation into player valuation.  When Scott [Boras] and I have a conversation about a player, this player may be 12 runs above average and another player might be 10 runs above average, but there's so many other factors that go into whether I'm going to be willing to pay more or less for that player.  For example, we always talk about the most likely outcome for this player, but what's the distribution look like?  Is there a 10% chance that he's below replacement level, is there a 10% chance that he's above superstar level?"

Indians president Mark Shapiro spoke of an "infinite number of things that I don't know," but mentioned during the conference that "medical is an absolute separator."  Agent Scott Boras focused on psychology, as a means to increasing the chances of players reaching their potential.  Rays baseball operations special assistant Rocco Baldelli wonders why some players develop the ability to hit, and some do not.

The panel provided a wide array of answers, but Luhnow's resonated most with me.  We often apply straightforward methods to determine what constitutes a good free agent signing, but projecting a player's WAR and multiplying by the price of a win is just a starting point.  Both Luhnow and Shapiro lamented the inability to tell fans all the factors that went into a decision, so unfortunately there will always be missing information for those outside the front office. 

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