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2010 Options: Boston Red Sox

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Today let's take a look at the 2010 options facing the Red Sox.

  • Josh Beckett – $12MM club option with a $2MM buyout.  This option vests if Beckett makes 25 more starts this year.  Barring a major injury, Beckett figures to remain with the Sox.
  • Jason Varitek – $5MM club option or $3MM player option.  Player option allows for $2MM in performance bonuses.  My guess is that Varitek will perform well enough to cause the Sox to exercise their option.  They were willing to risk paying him around $9MM if he'd accepted their December offer of arbitration.
  • Tim Wakefield – $4MM club option.  There will probably come a time when the knuckler is no longer worth this price.  But there's no sign that time is now.
  • Takashi Saito – Club option equal to 2009 earnings ($2.5MM+).  Saito appears healthy, but on the other hand he'll turn 40 in February of 2010.  This one could go either way.

Odds & Ends: Hunter, Keppinger, Swisher

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Links for Monday…

Cafardo’s Latest: Peavy, Mulder

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Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe has a couple notes in his Sunday column:

  • Should he be dealt this season, the Red Sox appeal to Jake Peavy, who hit it off with Kevin Youkilis and Dustin Pedroia in the World Baseball Classic. Padres GM Kevin Towers is hopeful his clubs success will continue and trading Peavy won't have to come up. Only twelve games into the season and the Pads are tied with the Dodgers at 9-3.
  • The Nationals, A's, and Dodgers are all interested in Mark Mulder who believes he "could be ready two weeks after signing."

Lowrie To Be Tested, Could Miss Season

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According to John Tomase of the Boston Herald Jed Lowrie will have his left wrist examined today in Arizona. If the tests don't go well he could face surgery that, as Lowrie says, "would essentially be the season."

The Red Sox have Julio Lugo and Nick Green to play short. Lugo is rehabbing his way back from knee trouble and Green was actually outperforming Lowrie so far this season. There aren't any shortstops available on the free agent market.

Baseball Blogs Weigh In: Bay, Dodgers, Draft

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On this date eight years ago, Barry Bonds hit his 500th career home run and on this date three years ago, Pedro Martinez won his 200th game. Both players are likely headed to Cooperstown, neither player has retired and yet both players are without a team. As we wrap up the second week of the '09 season, let's take a look at what is being written in the Blogosphere…

  • Surviving Grady fancies the Red Sox new Canadian import, Jason Bay, who is helping Bostonians forget all about…what was his name?
  • UmpBump puts together an impressive roster of players Ned Colletti "gave up on."
  • The Ghost of Moonlight Graham shows that history does not favor pitchers taken with the top pick of the draft. In fact, they also show that of the best pitchers acquired via the draft in the last 20 years, only Dwight Gooden was drafted in the first five picks.
  • Jorge Says No puts together a roster of the worst free agent contracts of the last five years.
  • Feeling Dodger Blue looks at the Dodgers' most recent top picks, both pitchers, and both appear to finally be healthy.

Cork Gaines writes for RaysIndex.com. If you have a suggestion for this feature, Cork can be reached here or on Twitter.

Rosenthal On Penny, Bay, Brandon Wood

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The latest from Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports…

  • Rosenthal suggests Cecil Cooper of the Astros may be the first manager fired; he says the team's veterans "do not care for Cooper."  He's in the last year of his contract.
  • With a comeback season for the Red Sox, Brad Penny could be in line for a lucrative free agent deal after the season.  One executive told Rosenthal Penny had the least amount of structural issues in his arm compared to similar free agents last winter.
  • The Red Sox are said to be "maintaining a quiet dialogue" with Jason Bay, who is eligible for free agency after the season.  Rosenthal says there's no acrimony or deadline; the sides are just trying to determine Bay's value.  It's a tricky calculation for corner outfielders, and the market will be flush after the season.
  • Angels infielder Brandon Wood appears big league ready.  Will the Angels trade Chone Figgins this summer to make room, or at least let Figgins leave as a free agent after the season?  There are plenty of ways to sort out the situation, but Wood deserves to play.
  • Dodgers reliever Ronald Belisario, signed out of the Venezuelan winter league, drew strong praise from one scout.
  • One scout had this to say regarding Emilio Bonifacio: "He's just a guy."

Red Sox Claim Travis Denker

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According to Tom Krasovic of the San Diego Union-Tribune, the Red Sox claimed second baseman Travis Denker off waivers from the Padres today.  Denker had been designated for assignment to clear a spot for Luis Perdomo.

Denker, 23, hit .282/.373/.468 at Triple A last year as a member of the Giants organization.  Baseball America envisioned him as an offense-first second baseman in their '08 Handbook, writing, "his value lies in his bat and his tenacity."

Cashman Convinced Hal On Teixeira

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Kat O'Brien of Newsday writes today about the Yankees' pursuit of Mark Teixeira.  In talking to Brian Cashman, O'Brien learned that the GM's persistence finally led to the go-ahead from Hal Steinbrenner; for much of the offseason, Tex wasn't an option.  At the time of Cashman's December meeting with Teixeira and Scott Boras, the Yankees were not expecting to sign the slugger.  According to Cashman:

"When I met with him, I was doing it more to get leverage on CC.  We weren't playing possum on purpose. We were actually out of it."

Cashman was able to convince Hal with this pitch regarding the Red Sox:

"I know you're not interested, but they're going to get this guy. He's going to fall in their lap, and he's so perfect for us."

Offseason In Review: Boston Red Sox

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Next up in our Offseason In Review series, the Red Sox.  Here's what we wrote about them on October 20th.  Changes for 2009:

Additions: Brad Penny, John Smoltz, Ramon Ramirez,Takashi Saito, Rocco Baldelli, Junichi Tazawa, Tim Wakefield (exercised option), Jason Varitek (re-signed), Mark Kotsay (re-signed), Brad Wilkerson, Randor Bierd, Nick Green, Billy Traber.  Midseason: Jason Bay

Subtractions: Coco Crisp, David Aardsma, Mike Timlin, Paul Byrd, Sean Casey, David Pauley, Kevin Cash, Bartolo Colon, David Ross, Alex Cora.  Midseason: Manny Ramirez, Brandon Moss, Craig Hansen

Extensions: Dustin Pedroia, Kevin Youkilis, Jon Lester

Despite taking a very different approach from the Yankees, the Red Sox also had a positive offseason.  They extended three talented young players and maintained financial flexibility by signing free agents to low base salary contracts. 

Last year the Red Sox ranked 2nd in the AL with 5.22 runs scored per game.  Changes in the '09 lineup include the subtraction of Manny, Crisp, and possibly Lugo, as well as more time for Bay and Lowrie.  CHONE projections and the Baseball Musings lineup analysis tool predict the best offense in the league: 5.62 runs per game.  Theoretically the Baldelli addition can limit the damage if Drew is to miss time. 

Boston's '08 rotation ranked 3rd in the AL with a 4.02 ERA in 966.6 innings.  The '09 rotation is similar but deeper with the additions of Penny and Smoltz and the possible emergence of Clay Buchholz.  Michael Bowden, a quality young pitcher, seems buried on the depth chart.  I tweaked CHONE's innings projections and ended up with a 4.13 ERA for this year's group.  That seems pessimistic but we'll go with it.

Last year's bullpen posted a 4.00 ERA in 479.6 innings (I know these bullpen ERAs aren't great indicators but let's not overcomplicate things).  The subtractions of Timlin, Aardsma, and Hansen help.  Add in more innings from Masterson as well as imports Ramirez and Saito, and this 'pen projects at a 3.43 ERA.  Even if they're not that good I can still see a few extra wins this year.

Defensively the Red Sox ranked 5th in the AL according to The Fielding Bible II.  I don't think they'll suffer for the losses of Crisp and Manny.

Like the Yankees, the Red Sox project on paper to win 100+ games.  Of course, for both teams some players will get hurt and have unexpected seasons.  Plus, the quality of competition in the division should bring down those win totals.

Bottom line: The Red Sox failed to sign Mark Teixeira, but he was a luxury for them anyway.  I liked Boston's low-risk offseason approach, and it's scary to think that they could make major summer trade acquisitions.

Odds & Ends: Bergmann, Maddux, Red Sox

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Some Odds & Ends to round out this Sunday morning's news:

  • Right-hander Jason Bergmann, who has an option left, is not happy that the Nationals have sent him to Triple-A, says Pete McElroy of masnsports.com. In nine games, Bergmann didn't give up a run. He had 6 K and 2 BB in 11 1/3 innings.
  • Not a rumor, but a headline of importance: Unsurprisingly, the Braves are going to retire Greg Maddux's number in July.
  • Daniel Barbarisi of the Providence Journal praises the Red Sox shrewdness by improving their ballclub while reducing their payroll by $13MM, from fourth highest to sixth. Back-loaded extensions to key players could mean the Sox could add payroll if a marquee player becomes available this summer.
  • Sam Mellinger of the Kansas City Star has a short but interesting article up noting that paying for a free agent pitcher does not usually work out. It would be interesting to actually see the numbers on this. Mellinger writes,
"We looked at the 47 contracts worth $5 million or more per year signed by active players, and analyzed their innings pitched, ERA and adjusted ERA for up to three years before and after the contract. Our executive said this would be a crude but effective way to make a judgment.

"The results are brutal: Thirty pitchers regressed after signing, and only 13 improved. Four contracts were close enough to be judged either way. That’s a fail ratio of 2:1."

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