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Quick Hits: Cubs, Hoerner, Opening Day, Home Run Leaders By State

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Nico Hoerner earned a Gold Glove nomination after notching five Defensive Runs Saved in just over 200 innings at the keystone in 2020, but his versatility will make him more than a bit player for the Cubs moving forward. Thanks to his plus glovework, the 23-year-old was worth 0.7 bWAR in 2020 despite slashing .222/.312/.259. His defensive prowess will keep his name on the lineup card while his bat works to catch up, writes Russell Dorsey of the Chicago Sun-Times. Hoerner played five positions including centerfield – the Cubs’ most glaring long-and-short-term hole. Ian Happ was the bulk starter in center in 2020, but he could move to left now that Kyle Schwarber was non-tendered. The Cubs are likely to add at least another name to their outfield mix, but don’t be surprised to see Hoerner continue to get looks there in the spring while competing with David Bote for regular second base reps.

As we look forward to the new year, let’s see what else is happening around the sport…

  • With two COVID-19 vaccines now on the market, owners are considering a push to delay the season opener until May. In their minds, a significant enough number in vaccinations could justify the delay, writes Paul Hoynes of Cleveland.com. Players have thus far resisted any attempts to push back the start of the season, however. The MLBPA wants a 162-game season rather than face another year of prorated pay. With coronavirus cases still on the rise, however, it’s prudent for MLB to take whatever precautions necessary to limit the risk of breakouts in 2021.
  • MLB.com’s Director of Research and Development Daren Willman put together a fun chart to peruse this holiday season (via Twitter). Williams posted the current home run leaders by birth state, and there are definitely some places for a young go-getter to take their local crown. Maine, Alaska, and New Hampshire each have career leaders with less than 100 home runs, while Duke Sims landed exactly at the century mark to leader all Utahans. Paul Goldschmidt (Delaware), Bryce Harper (Nevada), Kurt Suzuki (Hawaii), Mike Trout (New Jersey), and Ryan Zimmerman (North Carolina) could add to their leads in 2021, while the recently-retired Alex Gordon ended his career as Nebraska’s all-time home run king. Executive Director of the MLBPA Tony Clark also makes the list as Kansas’ all-time leader.

Phillies Deny Any Interest In Trading Zack Wheeler

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6:20 pm: Middleton rather firmly reiterated his unwillingness to trade Wheeler. “If they offered me Babe Ruth, I wouldn’t trade him,” the managing general partner told Olney. “I have authorized no one to have a conversation about trading him.”

12:57 pm: Both owner John Middleton and team president Andy MacPhail have denied Olney’s report, according to Jim Salisbury of NBC Sports Philadelphia, with Middleton saying “there’s zero truth to this.”  MacPhail stated that Wheeler “is very much in our plans going forward,” and while “I’m not surprised that other clubs might inquire about him, [a trade is] not something on our radar.”

11:25 am: The Phillies have let other teams know that they are open to hearing trade offers for right-hander Zack Wheeler, ESPN.com’s Buster Olney reports.  Wheeler signed a five-year, $119MM free agent deal with Philadelphia almost exactly one year ago, yet the Phils “have communicated…that they are facing a financial crunch,” Olney writes.

As always, teams are routinely “open to” receiving trade offers on just about any player as a matter of due diligence, just in case an unexpectedly great offer is floated.  The Phils being willing to listen about Wheeler trades doesn’t necessarily mean that he is being openly shopped.  This being said, there were already indications that the Phillies were looking to limit spending or even cut payroll in the wake of their revenue losses from the shortened 2020 season, and moving some or all of Wheeler’s remaining $96.5MM would certainly accomplish those rumored financial goals.

In the bigger picture, of course, trading Wheeler could also be a sign that a larger shakeup is coming in Philadelphia.  Trading an established front-of-the-rotation arm isn’t the type of move made by a big-market team that is planning to contend, and if Wheeler is on the table in trade negotiations, it’s fair to assume the Phils are also willing to discuss anyone earning a big salary.  Olney reports that “there is no indication” Bryce Harper is a trade candidate at this point.  Harper has a full no-trade clause and is still owed $274MM over the next 11 seasons, so moving him might possibly be too complicated to manage.

Beyond Harper, however, Jean Segura (owed $30MM through 2022) has already been mentioned as a possible trade candidate, Andrew McCutchen is owed $20MM in salary for 2021 plus a $3MM buyout of a $15MM club option for 2022, and Aaron Nola is slated to earn $31MM through the 2022 season and is controllable through 2023 on a club option.  Nola would certainly be the most attractive trade chip to rival teams, though one would think he would be pretty untouchable unless the Phillies were embarking on another complete team rebuild.

It also remains to be seen if the Phils would entirely abandon the idea of competing in 2021, or whether they would try the even more difficult strategy of trying to add pieces to contend even while in the midst of this “financial crunch.”  Olney opines that it’s at least possible the Phillies would reallocate any money saved in a Wheeler trade towards trying to re-sign J.T. Realmuto, though it would seem likely that Realmuto would be wary about rejoining a team that just dealt another star free agent a year into a long-term contract.  Plus, as Olney notes, “no matter what happens, there will be gaping holes in the roster,” since the Phillies already have needs in the bullpen and around the diamond, and trading Wheeler would create even greater need in the rotation.

Despite some fingernail issues that led to surgery in October, Wheeler posted some strong numbers in his first year in Philadelphia.  The right-hander posted a 2.92 ERA, 6.7 K/9, 3.31 K/BB rate, and 55.9% groundball rate over 71 innings in 2020, reducing his strikeout rate at the benefit of generating more grounders and keeping the ball in the park.  Among qualified pitchers, only Dallas Keuchel had a lower HR/9 than Wheeler’s NL-leading 0.38 figure.

Trevor Bauer is the only free agent pitcher projected to earn more than $96.5MM on the open market this offseason, and that assumes Bauer takes a longer-term deal rather than a shorter-term contract with a higher average annual value.  With that in mind, Wheeler’s remaining contractual obligations will give some trade suitors pause, unless some other salary is moved back to Philadelphia in return.  If the Phillies do have some level of desperation to cut payroll, however, a club willing to take Wheeler’s contract in full might only have to surrender a minimal amount of prospect return.

Bryce Harper Stumps For Spencer Howard To Make Rotation

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Philadelphia Phillies top third base prospect Alec Bohm understands the dynamics of service time manipulation, and he understands the business sense behind holding him back in the minors to start the year, per Matt Breen of the Philadelphia Inquirer. “That’s a smart business move,” Bohm said.

Bryce Harper isn’t quite as accommodating, speaking out recently about the possibility of Spencer Howard – another top Philly prospect –  not making the Opening Day roster, per MLB.com’s Todd Zolecki. With intrasquad games such a heavy component of the ramp-up to Opening Day this season, Harper has seen Howard’s stuff up close and personal – and he’s impressed.

The Phillies rotation is set with Aaron Nola, Zack Wheeler, Jake Arrieta slotted into the top spots with some competition for the final two roles. Still, there are plenty of capable veteran arms on hand, giving the Phils some plausible deniability when they decide that Howard needs more seasoning. Vince Velasquez, Zach Eflin, and Nick Pivetta all spent time in Philly’s rotation last season, and some combination of the three figure to get the early turns on the bump.

Howard, 24 in ten days, has a higher ceiling than those three, but he’s only pitched as high as Double-A – he made just 6 starts in Reading last year after starting the year in High-A. Given traditional development paths, it would be surprising for Howard to make the rotation from the jump – but that’s not to say he’s not capable.

As for Bohm, the 23-year-old is the long-term answer at third base for the Phillies. Like Howard, he made it as high as Double-A last season, hitting .269/.344/.500 across 270 plate appearances. His case for making the big league roster out of camp gained some traction over the winter, but all indications were – under normal circumstances – for Bohm to continue to develop in Triple-A at the start of 2020.

As in the rotation, the Phillies could certainly make room for Bohm if they so desired, but there’s more than enough veteran talent on-hand to make due. Jean Segura and Scott Kingery can split time between second and third, and veterans Josh Harrison and Neil Walker are also in camp as non-roster invitees. Jay Bruce slots in as the regular designated hitter – another veteran totally capable of handling a starting role, even if he might be better suited to the bench. In a vacuum, there’s room for Bohm, but it’s also not against baseball wisdom to give the vets a couple of weeks or more to prove they’re still capable of handling starter’s minutes.

With the shortened schedule, teams need only keep their top prospects off the major league roster for the first 6 games to secure an additional year of team control down the road. The issue, of course, has been hotly debated for years now, culminating in a grievance filed by Kris Bryant against the league. His grievance was unsuccessful. The issue persists year after year with players like Harper taking up the mantle to speak out for the rights of younger players. Service time manipulation of this sort will continue to be a hot button issue until it’s addressed – in some form or fashion – at the time of the next CBA negotiation in 2021.

Quick Hits: Rays, Franco, Gibbons, Phillies, Harper, Storen

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Wander Franco has apparently heard some of the positive chatter around his game. MLB Insider Hector Gomez tweets that Franco fully expects to have $300MM in front of him within four years. Of course, baseball economics make that a somewhat suspect goal, as there’s a decent chance Franco will not be arbitration eligible yet in that timespan, and even if he were, the largest contract given out by the Rays is the six-year, $100MM deal given to Evan Longoria. It’s hard to imagine them tripling that high overnight. And yet, if there were a guy to prompt such spending, Franco might be the one. The Rays’ 19-year-old shortstop has a hit tool that scouts are raving about in no uncertain terms. The youngster hit an absurd .318/.390/.506 in Single A last season against competition an average of more than 3 years his elder. Franco’s on-field performance thus far certainly merits bawdy talk, and in an open market, there’s no telling how much Franco might earn today. While Franco’s stock continues to appreciate, let’s check in elsewhere around the league…

  • Former Blue Jays manager John Gibbons has been vocal about his desire to get back into a major league clubhouse. He hasn’t gotten much traction, however, despite efforts on his part to dispel certain assumptions about his managerial style. Gibbons doesn’t agree with his reputation around the league, which considers him an old-school type, non-adept with analytics and better-suited to a veteran clubhouse. He had reached out to a number of teams with openings this offseason, but couldn’t even secure himself an interview. Not until the Astros’ position became available, writes The Star’s Gregor Chisholm. The role ultimately went to Dusty Baker, returning Gibbons to his current role as a scout for the Braves. Gibbons will continue to reach out to clubs with managerial openings.
  • Drew Storen has been through a lot in his baseball life, from an undefeated high school season alongside teammate Lance Lynn, to anchoring the bullpen on early Nats contenders that featured a young Bryce Harper, to Tommy John surgery in 2017 that stuck his career in the mud, writes Jim Salisbury of NBC Sports Philadelphia. While in camp with the Phillies this spring, Storen had a couple of major takeaways. First was how much he enjoyed playing the game. Second was how much Harper has grown as a leader since his early days with the Nats. And third was that Storen actually had a pretty decent chance of making the team. Being released by the Royals last June lit a fire for Storen, reminding him the type of urgency and intention it would take to return to the big leagues. He went to work at Driveline in an effort to build his arm enough to make a major league bullpen. Storen looked good this spring, with a 3.60 ERA over 5 innings with 5 strikeouts and zero walks.

Bryce Harper Discusses Contract Situation Of Phillies, J.T. Realmuto

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If you ask Phillies star Bryce Harper, the team needs to do what it takes to retain backstop J.T. Realmuto. Harper discussed that important contractual situation and other topics in a recent chat with Jim Salisbury of NBC Sports Philadelphia.

It’s debatable how best to interpret Harper’s comments — prediction or exhortation, or both — but not his underlying desire to see Realmuto stay with him in Philly. Harper lavished praise on Realmuto, saying: “I think the Phillies organization absolutely loves J.T. and our team absolutely loves him as well.”

Harper obviously isn’t negotiating contracts, but with twelve seasons left on his own monumental deal his opinion holds greater weight than those of your average veteran star. He says of Realmuto: “Us as an organization, we have to understand that he’s going to help us in the years to come and if you want the best catcher in baseball then we’ll make that happen.”

“I don’t think anybody should fear us not getting J.T. back,” Harper continued. “I want him more than anything, so I mean it’s something we need to make happen as an organization.”

That’s shy of a promise but something more than a mere expression of personal preferences. Harper did go on to say that the club will “hopefully” find a way to keep Realmuto around, and there’s no particular reason to believe he’s operating on inside information here, but it’s rather interesting to see how strongly he phrased things.

When last we looked, the Phillies and Realmuto had paused their discussions on a pre-season extension. Not long after, a leaguewide moratorium on contract discussions went into effect. Realmuto has reportedly sought a monster contract that would approach or even exceed the record catching deal of Buster Posey.

It’s fair to wonder whether the suspension of the 2020 season will have an impact on negotiations if and when they resume. Realmuto will certainly not have an opportunity at a typical platform year. And it’s anyone’s guess at this point how the 2020-21 free agent market will function.

Phillies Notes: Harper, Dominguez, Realmuto

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There’s plenty of negativity on which to dwell in times such as these, but many of the game’s top players continue to their efforts to help those in need and inspire hope. To that end, Bryce Harper announced Thursday (via Twitter) that he and his family are donating $500,000 in partnership with Direct Relief, Three Square Las Vegas and Philabundance to “those in most immediate need” of aid against the spreading COVID-19 virus.

“Now is the time to come together and adhere to the guidelines of medical professionals!” wrote Harper. “We are wishing the best to all with our prayers during this time.” Harper joins Dexter Fowler, Freddie Freeman, Adam Wainwright, Shin-Soo Choo and dozens upon dozens of other big leaguers who have been active in their communities and made charitable contributions in the fight against the pandemic.

A couple more notes out of Philadelphia…

  • A decision on right-hander Seranthony Dominguez’s right elbow is on “pause” for now, general manager Matt Klentak told reporters Thursday (link via Matt Breen of the Philadelphia Inquirer). The Phillies’ medical staff recommended Tommy John surgery after an MRI, and Dominguez was slated to receive a second opinion shortly thereafter. However, that recommendation coincided with the implementation of travel restrictions in Dominguez’s native Dominican Republic, and the righty quickly traveled back home to be with family while he was still able. Now, Dominguez’s second opinion and potential surgery are both on hold. Klentak acknowledged that Tommy John is still a definite possibility but stressed that the situation is not black-and-white. “For a lot of players, surgery is the last option they want to consider,” said Klentak. “…Before we go down that road we just want to make sure that everybody’s in agreement that [Tommy John surgery] is the right course of action.”
  • Also on hold for the time being are the team’s extension talks with star catcher J.T. Realmuto. The league mandated that extension talks be halted during MLB’s league-wide roster freeze, so the two sides can’t even talk about a potential long-term deal. Klentak emphasized today, though, that he hopes to eventually rekindle talks with Realmuto’s camp. “I think you all know that we love J.T., and he’s a player that we would love to have with us for the long haul,” said the GM. Realmuto was reportedly seeking to top Buster Posey’s $159MM guarantee and set a new average annual value precedent for catchers — which could’ve meant an asking price upwards of $26-27MM annually over a six-year term. He’s slated to become a free agent in the 2020-21 offseason.

East Notes: Phillies, Werth, Harper, Mets, Gimenez, Orioles, Martin

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Jayson Werth was not surprised when his bromantic partner Bryce Harper signed with the Phillies exactly a year ago yesterday, per Jim Salisbury of NBC Sports Philadelphia. After years of traveling together, yukking it up from stadium to stadium, Werth knew Harper’s feelings about the league about as well as could be expected, and given his own positive feelings about his time in Philly (he won a ring there in 2008), Harper taking a shine to his mentor’s former club definitely tracks. Werth impacted both franchises in their most recent championship endeavors, directly for the Phils as he hit .309/.387/.582 during their ’08 run. For the Nats, he provided legitimacy to the franchise at the outset of their current run of competency. The Nationals have posted a winning record in each of the last eight seasons back to 2012, Werth’s second year with the club. That’s enough reminiscing for today. Let’s stay in the NL East and check in on some spring training news…

  • New York Mets prospect Andres Gimenez added a leg kick to his swing this winter in an effort to get more lift, per Deesha Thosar of the New York Daily News. Gimenez will have to push the envelope to make his presence felt at the major league level this season, but he’s breathing down Amed Rosario’s neck. Robinson Cano is owed big money over the next four seasons, but there’s certainly the possibility that one of the Mets’ young shortstops could eventually move to the keystone. Despite some uncertainty regarding Rosario’s performance at the big league level, shortstop is a deep positional field for the Mets organizationally. Gimenez is the Mets’ 2nd-ranked prospect, per Fangraphs, behind only Ronny Mauricio, who trails Gimenez in timeline by roughly the same margin between Gimenez and Rosario. For now, Rosario, 24, will keep the position warm until Gimenez, 21, can take it. That is, until Mauricio, 19 in April, can get to it first. 
  • Jumping to the junior circuit, the Baltimore Orioles expect 2020 to be a development year for Richie Martin – out of the spotlight. With defensive wizard Jose Iglesias in-house to hold down shortstop – until July at least – Martin can make up for lost time in Triple-A. Last year’s Rule-5 selection from the A’s, Martin was pushed into a full season with the big league club last year, and his naïveté showed. Martin put up -0.6 rWAR and a 50 wRC+ in 2019 as their more-or-less everyday shortstop. Still, Martin isn’t giving up the possibility of winning a job at second base or in a utility role, per MASN’s Roch Kubatko. The team lacked middle infield depth last season, but they at least have more players vying for those roles this spring – likely leaving Martin on the outside looking in on opening day. Hanser Alberto has his name on one roster spot, while Andrew Velazquez and Ramon Urias are contenders for utility roles, while Stevie Wilkerson, Pat Valaika, Jose Rondon, and Dilson Herrera are all in camp as non-roster invitees. 

Fallout Notes After Gerrit Cole Signing: Blue Jays, Angels, Pettitte, Dodgers, Bumgarner

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Much will come to light in the coming days now that the Yankees have officially given Gerrit Cole the largest deal in league history for a pitcher – but even now, mere hours from the revelation, the news is starting to sink in. The rest of the pitching market could unstick rather quickly, and the Blue Jays are having to factor in their new reality of having to face Cole four or five times a year for the next decade, writes Ben Nicholson-Smith of sportsnet.ca. Of course, what better way for Vlad Guerrero Jr., Bo Bichette and friends to push themselves to reach their massive potentials than by facing off with the best of the best. Of greater concern for Toronto is who will take the mound on their side in 2020. With the biggest names now off the board, interest will pick up for the next tier of free agent starters, guys like Hyun-Jin Ryu and Dallas Keuchel, in whom Toronto has shown interest. Those who missed out on Cole may up the ante for the next round, however, putting the Blue Jays’ realistic options more in the field of Tanner Roark, Rick Porcello, or Wade Miley. They could even lend a helping hand to the Yankees by taking back J.A. Happ if a prospect(s) came along with him. Let’s see what else folks are saying here in the wee hours of life in our bleak new post-Cole-sweepstakes reality…

  • The winners and losers of Cole’s mega contract are fairly obvious, but The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal makes the rounds anyway, starting with the Yankees – the biggest winners here (besides Cole and maybe Scott Boras) for finally reeling in their “white whale.” The Angels come away from the Cole saga disappointed, but it’s not all bad for the Halos. They have more need than could have been filled by Cole alone. As tantalizing a talent Cole is, they may be better off spreading their money around. Now that the Giants took Zack Cozart’s deal off their hands, they might have enough resources to buy a supporting cast for Mike Trout.
  • It’s easy to view the Yankees’ winning bid as a harkening back to the days of New York as the evil empire, but the reality is actually much more frightening, per The Athletic’s Marc Carig. He writes, “The Yankees are well-run, well-heeled and well-schooled in the art of reeling in the big fish.” True enough: this was no impulsive spending spree. The Yankees, like much of the league, have curbed their shopping addictions and learned to spend wisely. As a result, they should enter 2020 as favorites to win the American League. Oddly, for years it was expected that Bryce Harper and Manny Machado’s free agency would wake the dormant goliaths from their winter slumber, but it turned out to be Cole who not only made the notoriously judicious Andrew Friedman plead his case for the Dodgers, but who prompted the Yankees to shake off the rust and woo their western rival’s star player like the old days.
  • Speaking of: Andy Pettitte played a role in evangelizing on behalf of New York’s lifestyle benefits. He encouraged Cole about playing in New York as a benefit for his peace of mind, per Joel Sherman of the New York Post. Pettitte’s point was that Cole could focus himself on the task of winning titles, as the playoffs should be an annual guarantee (or at least strong possibility). Of course, the Dodgers and Astros could have made the same argument about their squads.
  • The Dodgers, it’s worth noting, made a real push for Cole. Among 324 million other reasons, however, Cole came away from his meeting with New York impressed with new pitching coach Matt Blake, who appealed to Cole’s interest in the intellectual side of the game, noted Carig. Of course, Cole also grew up a Yankees fan, which might have tipped the scale in the Yankees’ favor in a way that the Dodgers simply couldn’t answer. Now that the dust has settled, the Dodgers are moving on to the goal of convincing Madison Bumgarner to make the heel turn and join an already strong rotation in Chavez Ravine, tweets Rosenthal.

The Astros/Nationals Blockbuster Trade That Was Almost A Reality

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The Astros and Nationals share a Spring Training site, but there isn’t exactly a lot of shared history between the two franchises as they prepare to meet in the World Series.  The Astros hold a 244-207 all-time record over the Nationals/Expos, and the no-hitter that Larry Dierker threw against the Expos back on July 9, 1976 is probably the most historically significant game to ever take place between the two clubs….until Tuesday’s Game 1, that is.

There isn’t even a lengthy or significant trade history to work with in finding links between the two clubs, as the last deal between Washington and Houston took place back in 2007.  However, the reigning pennant winners came close to a much more significant trade in July 2018, when Bryce Harper almost became an Astro.  As detailed by The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal (subscription required) last November, the two teams had worked out the framework of a trade that would have sent Harper to Houston for a three-prospect package headlined by right-hander J.B. Bukauskas.  The other two prospects were a pitcher in the lower minors and catcher Garrett Stubbs “was in play” to be the third piece, Rosenthal noted.

The swap was ready to go by July 30, the day before the trade deadline, though Nationals ownership stepped in to veto the proposal.  The Lerner family was still hopeful of re-signing Harper to a new contract either in free agency or even before he hit the open market, and didn’t yet want to part ways with the star outfielder.  For similar reasons, a potential August trade between the Dodgers and Nationals that would have seen Yasiel Puig head to D.C. and Harper go to L.A. was also a no-go.

The idea Harper going to the Astros is such an eye-opening concept that the entire baseball world would have been shaken up had the trade been completed.  Here are four of the larger ripple effects that could have emerged if Harper had indeed donned Houston orange in July 2018…

Do The Astros Win The 2018 World Series?
Maybe the most obvious question of the bunch, as the Astros had a surprisingly middle-of-the-pack offense in the second half of the 2018 season.  With Harper’s bat in the lineup, perhaps Houston (who won 103 games in real life) could have scored enough extra victories to overtake the 108-win Red Sox for home-field advantage throughout the postseason.  If not, perhaps at least Harper helps the Astros generate enough offense to overcome the Red Sox in the ALCS.  Astros hitters combined for a mediocre .219/.337/.385 slash line in Houston’s five-game loss, and while pitching (a combined 5.52 ERA) was the Astros’ larger problem against Boston, it’s worth noting that Sox hitters had only a .710 collective OPS.

In a short series, even a few hits could have swung the entire thing Houston’s way, and perhaps Harper could have also been a difference-maker in helping the Astros top the Dodgers in the 2018 Series.  Stretching the butterfly effect out a bit further, maybe the Harper-led Astros only make it a round further, and it’s the Dodgers who wind up as the 2018 champions.  Or, if the Red Sox fell short, perhaps president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski is fired after the season (ownership was already considering a change late in the 2018 season), Boston has a new front office boss installed last winter, and the entire scope of the Red Sox 2018-19 offseason and 2019 season are also changed.

No QO, No Status Quo For Harper’s Free Agency
One can definitely fall down lots of different wormholes when exploring an alternate reality scenario, but one thing seems pretty uniformly certain — Harper would still have become a free agent after the 2018 season, and he wouldn’t have been an Astro in 2019.  The Astros didn’t show interest in signing Harper to a mega-deal last winter, and even in a world where Harper magically carries Houston to a championship, it’s very likely that the two sides thank each other for the ring and part ways.  As such, the Astros’ offseason decisions aren’t greatly impacted, so the team’s real-world moves (i.e. signing Michael Brantley and Wade Miley) probably still happen.

One wrinkle to Harper’s free agency is that, since he was dealt at midseason, he was ineligible to have a qualifying offer placed on his services.  So the Nationals would’ve gotten the Bukauskas package but not the compensatory pick they received for Harper once he signed with Philadelphia.  This comp pick ended up falling after the fourth round (since the Nats exceeded the luxury tax threshold in 2018) though Washington actually forfeited this pick regardless — the Nationals had to give up their second- and fifth-highest picks in the draft as compensation for signing Patrick Corbin, another QO free agent.  So without the Harper pick to work with, the Nationals wouldn’t have had a fifth-round draft pick, and thus wouldn’t have been able to select hard-throwing Florida right-hander Tyler Dyson.  Washington went well above slot ($346.8K) in signing Dyson to a $500K bonus, and MLB Pipeline ranks Dyson as the 20th-best prospect in the Nationals’ system.

So with Dyson still on the board, that single inclusion quite possibly shakes up a lot of movement in the draft.  But, if Harper doesn’t have a rejected qualifying offer hanging over him, the Phillies wouldn’t have had to give up their second round pick in order to sign him.  So this gives the Phils another high draft pick to add to their farm system — or maybe the Phillies end up using that pick anyway on another QO free agent.  Harper was known to be on the Phillies’ offseason radar from day one, so it’s safe to assume they’d already earmarked losing that pick to ink him.

But if that wasn’t a consideration, perhaps Philadelphia looks at the other five QO free agents who hit the market (Hyun-Jin Ryu accepted his offer and remained with the Dodgers) and pursues one of them during its aggressive offseason.  How does the 2019 Phillies season play out look if Corbin or Dallas Keuchel had been in the rotation, if Craig Kimbrel was closing games, if A.J. Pollock was in the outfield, or if Yasmani Grandal had been behind the plate?  The latter three are particularly intriguing, since signing any of those players would’ve meant the Phils would’ve had to forego some of their other acquisitions (such as David Robertson, Andrew McCutchen, or J.T. Realmuto) at those same positions.

Tax Relief In Washington
It isn’t known whether the Astros would’ve absorbed all of the approximately $7.21MM still owed to Harper over the last months of the season had the Nationals trade gone through.  But even if only a portion came off the books, trading Harper would’ve jump-started the Nats’ efforts to reload for 2019, and they might’ve dealt veterans like Gio Gonzalez, Daniel Murphy, Matt Adams, and Ryan Madson on July 31 or earlier in the old August trade waivers period rather than wait until late August to unload the quartet.

The bottom line is that either by moving Gonzalez and company earlier, or in dealing Harper’s salary in its entirety, the Nationals would’ve been able to duck under the $197MM Competitive Balance Tax threshold and reset their penalty clock.  In real life, D.C. had a $205MM luxury tax number, which resulted in a tax bill of $2,386,097 (which included a repeater penalty for exceeding the threshold in consecutive years).

The Nationals again slightly exceeded the $206MM threshold this season, as per both Roster Resource (just under $207.94MM) and Cot’s Baseball Contracts (less than $76K).  These figures are estimations, of course, and given the small amounts involved, it’s possible the Nats managed to slightly sneak under the $206MM mark after all.  Even with the 50% tax rate for three-time CBT payors, this small step over the threshold still means the Nationals won’t be facing a big tax bill.  At Roster Resource’s number, the Nats will owe $969,309.50 in luxury tax payments, which is pocket change to a high-spending team.

Much more importantly than saving under $3.36MM in tax money, escaping the “CBT payor” designation would’ve impacted the Nationals in the 2018-19 free agent market.  As per the qualifying offer rules, Washington’s compensatory pick for losing Harper would’ve come after Competitive Balance Round B rather than after the fourth round — a jump of roughly 60 slots.  Also, signing Corbin cost the Nationals $1MM in international bonus money as well as their second- and fifth-highest draft picks, whereas if they hadn’t exceeded the luxury tax threshold, the Corbin signing would’ve cost only the second-highest pick and $500K in international pool funds.

Do The Astros Still Get Greinke?
This is the ripple effect that perhaps has the most clear and direct impact on the 2019 Series.  If Houston trades Bukauskas in July 2018, it doesn’t have him in the organization in July 2019 to be dealt to the Diamondbacks as part of the four-player return for Zack Greinke.

It’s possible the Astros and D’Backs could’ve settled on another name rather than Bukauskas, though given how the Greinke talks were finalized just minutes away from the trade deadline, who knows how things play out with Bukauskas’ involvement.  Bukauskas was the top healthy prospect in the deal, after all, given that Corbin Martin is sidelined due to Tommy John surgery.

Or potentially, in a reality where the Astros swing the Harper trade but it doesn’t work out, perhaps GM Jeff Luhnow thinks twice the next year about another splashy trade for a big name and foregoes a Greinke trade entirely, perhaps focusing on a lower-tier player or players instead.

It’s safe to assume that the Astros would have still acquired some kind of starting pitching help, and still go on to win the AL West even without an ace like Greinke in the mix.  And while Greinke hasn’t been great in the postseason, does Houston still win Game Four of the ALCS without his 4 1/3 innings of one-run ball?  Or, maybe without Greinke down the stretch, the Astros win fewer than 107 games and lose home-field advantage to the Yankees, which swings the ALCS in New York’s direction.  Or, if the Yankees are the top seed, the American League bracket is flipped entirely and, who knows, we could’ve ended up with a Twins/Rays ALCS.

Poll: Grading Bryce Harper’s 2019

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Outfielder Bryce Harper was a dominant presence on this website and every other national baseball media outlet last winter, at which point the then-free agent was coming off a stellar run in Washington. One of the most hyped players in the sport since he was a teenager, Harper reached the open market as a six-time All-Star and a one-time National League Most Valuable Player with 30.5 fWAR/27.4 bWAR on his resume. Harper accomplished those feats by the ripe old age of 26, and with youth on his side, he looked like a strong bet to reel in the largest free-agent contract in the history of baseball. In the end, that’s exactly what happened.

While Harper’s stay on the open market lasted longer than expected, he eventually agreed to a record pact to exit the Nationals for the division-rival Phillies. His 13-year, $330MM deal became official March 1, standing as the biggest guarantee ever doled out until the Angels’ Mike Trout signed a decade-long extension worth $360MM three weeks later.

Thanks to the Harper signing and their several other headline-grabbing offseason pickups, the Phillies came into 2019 with a seemingly realistic chance of breaking a seven-year playoff drought. Instead, though, they’ve locked up yet another October-less season with just a few days to go. Now 79-80 and in the throes of another uninspiring late-season finish, it appears the club will be fortunate just to post its first .500 campaign since 2012.

It’s clear the Phillies will go down as one of this year’s most disappointing teams, but that’s not to suggest Harper has been at fault. If one player could elevate a team from mediocrity to excellence, then Trout’s Angels would be in title contention every year instead of regularly wallowing at the bottom of the AL West. Harper’s no Trout (who is?), but it doesn’t seem fair to assign any of the blame for Philly’s struggles to him.

The fact is that Harper’s overall 2019 output hasn’t been much different than the production he managed in D.C. on multiple occasions. With a .261/.374/.511 line in 668 plate appearances, Harper’s offensive production has been a more-than-respectable 26 percent better than league average, according to FanGraphs’ wRC+ metric. He has also slugged at least 30 home runs (34) for the third time and stolen 14 bases on 17 attempts.

Harper was a superior offensive player last year, as his 135 wRC+ shows; on the other hand, his defense has dramatically improved compared to 2018. In his final season as a National, Harper combined for hideous numbers between center and right field, where he totaled minus-26 Defensive Runs Saved, a minus-14.4 Ultimate Zone Rating and minus-13 Outs Above Average. Harper ranked among the majors’ five worst outfielders in all of those categories, including dead last in UZR. This year, however, Harper has accounted for 7 DRS, 10.9 UZR and 1 OAA whiil spending all his time in right.

Harper’s offensive and defensive contributions have been enough for 4.5 fWAR and 3.9 bWAR as we reach the season’s final weekend. Both figures are very good, not great, though that’s hardly an insult. But what do you think? Should the Phillies be happy with what Harper has done in the first year of his historic deal?

(Poll link for app users)

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