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Bryce Harper

Giants Notes: Pillar, Guyer, Choo, Harper

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The latest on the Giants’ search for outfield help…

  • Cameron Maybin’s release has left the Giants in need of a right-handed hitting center fielder who can complement Steven Duggar.  To this end, the club has “looked into Blue Jays center fielder Kevin Pillar and Brandon Guyer,” Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle writes.  Guyer was just released by the White Sox and has a long track record of success against lefty pitching, though he would be another imperfect fit as a center field option — Guyer has only 356 career innings as a center fielder, with a -1.4 UZR.150 and -4 Defensive Runs Saved in that relatively small sample size.  Pillar is the much more accomplished defender, though not much of a hitter and also much more expensive than Guyer would be, as Pillar is set to earn $5.8MM this season.  There’s also the question of what the Giants would have to give up to Toronto in a trade, though Schulman notes “it’s unclear whether the Blue Jays would entertain a deal.”  San Francisco’s interest in Pillar dates back to earlier this offseason, though obviously no trade came together.
  • The Giants and Rangers discussed a trade that would have sent Shin-Soo Choo to the Bay Area, The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal reports (subscription required), though “the talks failed to gain momentum and at this point are barely active.”  Choo would’ve been something of a curious add for the Giants, given that he has moved into more of a DH role in recent seasons.  Choo’s bat is still potent (.264/.377/.434 with 21 homers in 665 PA last season), and while his glovework was below-average (-5 DFS, -3.9 UZR/150 in 507 1/3 innings as a corner outfielder) in 2018, the Giants might have felt the tradeoff was worth it, even if Choo’s defense would have likely further fallen off in Oracle Park’s larger outfield.  The Giants could also have possibly seen the trade as something of a bargain, since Rosenthal notes that the Rangers “would have included significant cash” to cover the $42MM remaining on Choo’s contract through 2020.  The talks didn’t revolve around the idea of dealing Choo for one of the hefty contracts (i.e. Jeff Samardzjia, Mark Melancon) on the Giants’ payroll.
  • Also from Rosenthal’s piece, he provided a sneak peek at an interview conducted with Bryce Harper that will air in full after Fox Sports 1’s broadcast of the Braves/Phillies game on March 30.  Within the interview, Harper discussed his lengthy free agent process, including the tidbit that his final decision came down to the Phillies and the Giants.  In weighing his options with his wife Kayla, Harper said the couple ultimately decided that Philadelphia was the best fit.  “It was nothing against San Francisco. They’re a great organization. It’s a great city,” Harper said.  “It just came down to what I felt. And by that point, it was Philly.”  Harper also said that the difference between spacious Oracle Park and the more hitter-friendly Citizens Bank Park “was never really a factor” in his choice of teams.

Injury Notes: Harper, Castellanos, Foltynewicz, Senzatela, Nix

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With each bump and bruise this time of year comes the potential for missed time during the regular season, perhaps especially so for those late signees getting delayed starts to their Spring Training. As Opening Day fast approaches, let’s get the lowdown on a few injury reports from camp…

Latest Updates

  • Rockies righty Antonio Senzatela has an infected blister on his right heel and will be out “a while,” per manager Bud Black (via the Denver Post’s Patrick Saunders). Senzatela, 24, was competing for the final spot in Colorado’s rotation with Chad Bettis, who now appears to have the role on lock. The Venezuelan-born righty had made just eight starts above the high-A level before opening the 2017 season with the team, and again played a major role in the club’s wild card-run last season. His fastball-heavy repertoire is devoid, at this point, of a true swing-and-miss pitch, so perhaps the 6’1 righty could indeed use further minor league seasoning. Still, despite some sophomore regression, Senzatela’s been reasonably effective thus far in his young MLB career, and the Rockies are almost certain to require his services at some point this season.
  • Padres righty Jacob Nix has been shut down with right arm soreness, per MLB.com’s AJ Cassavell. Nix, 23, shares with Senzatela the same allergy to missing bats, but was a legitimate candidate for the fifth spot in a wide-open San Diego rotation. Once the victim of a too-clever Astros draft scheme, in which the team agreed to terms with the young righty but was forced to renege after a bonus-pool shortage resulting from the Brady Aiken fiasco, Nix has long flashed top-of-the-rotation tools but struggled with consistency. Last season’s debut was a disaster: the 6’5 righty was torched to the tune of a 7.02 ERA/5.83 FIP with 8 HRs allowed in just 42 1/3 IP. He, too, is due for a longer minors simmer, having made just one start above the AA level in his young career thus far.

Earlier Reports

  • Bryce Harper is day-to-day with ankle swelling, per ESPN’s Jeff Passan (via Twitter). Harper was hit by a pinch in yesterday’s Phillies game, though even by this morning the swelling had reduced. All tests came back negative, per Matt Breen of the Philadelphia Inquirer (via Twitter), while a number of reporters quote manager Gabe Kapler as projecting confidence in Bryce’s ability to be ready by Opening Day. All in all, this appears to be much ado about nothing, but as is the case with any injury, it’s worth tracking for aftereffect. Due to the late date of his signing, Harper has seen limited action in spring thus far, going 0-5 with three strikeouts, three walks, and a stolen base, though the focus here is obviously not yet on production. The Phillies season opens less than two weeks from today with their home opener against the Braves on Thursday, March 28th.
  • Tigers presumptive right fielder Nick Castellanos remains out of the lineup for the time being, per MLB.com’s Jason Beck (via Twitter). Castellanos is likely to return to Grapefruit League play within a couple of days. He was seen taking batting practice in the cage today and at least provided cursory affirmation that tests on his bruised left hand revealed no significant damage, per Chris McCosky of the Detroit News (via Twitter). Castellanos has been bandied about often here at MLBTR this winter as a trade candidate, which appears likely to continue as there have been no extension talks between the right-handed slugger and the club.
  • The Braves may be without their ace until “mid/late April,” per the Athletic’s David O’Brien (via Twitter). Mike Foltynewicz has missed most of Spring Training with a sore elbow after a breakout season. Folty was stellar in 2018 as he went 13-10 with a 2.85 ERA (3.37 FIP) over 183 frames. There was much speculation about the Braves bolstering their rotation this winter, either via free agency or by bundling their prospects in a trade, but they mostly hung tight despite losing Anibal Sanchez – who enjoyed a different variety of 2018 breakout – to the rival Nationals. The Braves have plenty of depth to cover, but much of their standing pat must have been predicated on a healthy Folynewicz leading the charge again in 2019. Atlanta will lean on Julio Teheran, Kevin Gausman, and Sean Newcomb to hold down the fort until Folty’s return.

Angels Notify MLB Of Harper Comments On Trout Recruitment

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Bryce Harper just launched his tenure as the Phillies’ biggest star, but he’s already considering how to use his gravitational pull to the team’s advantage. In an interview yesterday with Philadelphia SportsRadio 94WIP, Harper made clear he intends to help the Phils land another big fish in free agency:

“If you don’t think I’m gonna call Mike Trout to come to Philly in 2020, you’re crazy.”

That comment was sufficient to spur the Angels to raise the matter with Major League Baseball, Maria Torres of the Los Angeles Times reports. The league has been in touch with both teams and is looking into the matter, per ESPN.com’s Jeff Passan (Twitter link). Unsurprisingly, “significant discipline” is not anticipated.

Tampering is prohibited by operation of MLB Rule 3(k), which prohibits “negotiations or dealings respecting employment, either present or prospective, between any player, coach or manager and any Major or Minor League Club other than the Club with which the player is under contract.”

While Harper’s comments seem innocuous enough on the surface, they are of the same ilk as others that have drawn some rebuke in the past. David Ortiz received a warning letter from the from the commissioner’s office after advocating for Edwin Encarnacion to replace him as the Red Sox’ DH. The Yankees admonished Aaron Judge for telling Manny Machado he’d “look good in pinstripes.”

Those situations didn’t warrant a fine, though that avenue is available to commissioner Rob Manfred. The National Basketball Association has doled out penalties and issued stern words on the subject, a reflection of the fact that the league’s fundamental player market structure — more star-driven with shorter, more heavily regulated contracts — is more susceptible to actual interference.

What action will be taken in Harper’s case, if any, remains to be seen and resides largely in Manfred’s discretion. It’s hard to imagine that Harper’s words are of much real-world import, though perhaps there’s cause to nip things in the bud. For the Halos, the last thing they want to see is a two-year-long public recruiting pitch from Harper and others as they try to figure out a way to keep Trout in town for the rest of his career. And for the league, there’s an interest in preventing even this sort of mild tampering from becoming a more frequent issue.

Structuring a penalty that actually disincentivizes these kinds of public comments would be tricky. Any symbolic punishment of Harper would serve only to further publicize his comments. It might also ingratiate him to his new fans in Philly, who are already themselves pining for Trout. A warning letter may seem toothless, but it’s perhaps the most sensible formal action for Manfred to take in this case.

NL Notes: Phillies, Kershaw, Strahm

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As it plodded forward over a period of months, the free agency of Bryce Harper was more laborious than intriguing for the outside observer. But the twists and turns, the strategies and stratagems, and the overriding uncertainty that blanketed the process are all much more interesting when told in a retrospective, narrative form. In a subscriber-only post, Matt Gelb of The Athletic has penned one of the most fascinating hot stove stories in memory regarding the Phillies’ high-stakes offseason, which culminated recently with the signing of Harper. The 26-year-old star set out seeking a record-setting deal in all aspects (length, guarantee, AAV), per Gelb. He also told the Philadelphia organization during their mid-January meeting that he wanted to pick a long-term home and wasn’t interested in opt-outs. Meanwhile, the club was amply willing to make a lengthy commitment, so long as the competitive balance tax burden wasn’t too onerous. The club’s initial $330MM offer was for a 15-year term, with the final deal coming together when the Phils agreed to knock two years off of the length. By the end of the impeccably crafted article, Harper’s free agent process feels like a roller coaster — a thrilling ride with an utterly predictable result. As Gelb puts it, at the moment of decision, the organization realized that this was “a lifetime deal, a marriage between a starved franchise and the game’s most marketable star.”

Frankly, there’s no substitute for reading the full account, which paints a vibrant picture of the Phils’ winter efforts. Here’s more from the National League:

  • Although the Dodgers remain hopeful that Clayton Kershaw will be ready to make his ninth consecutive Opening Day start, manager Dave Roberts acknowledged to reporters Monday that the left-hander may not be ready to go come March 28 (link via Mike DiGiovanna of the L.A. Times). Kershaw threw from 60 to 70 feet Monday, per DiGiovanna, and Roberts indicated that the lefty continues to trend in the right direction. Even if Kershaw isn’t ready for the opener, there’s no indication to this point that he’d need to miss significant time early in the season. Indeed, as MLB.com’s Ken Gurnick tweets, Roberts says that Kershaw emerged from his throwing session today feeling “pretty excited” with how he felt. Understandably, Roberts also suggested that there’s too much emphasis being placed on Opening Day. If Kershaw isn’t ready to go, the Dodgers will still have Walker Buehler, Hyun-Jin Ryu, Rich Hill, Kenta Maeda, Julio Urias and Ross Stripling as viable rotation pieces, with Brock Stewart and Caleb Ferguson serving as depth options.
  • Padres skipper Andy Green has suggested that the main factor in determining whether lefty Matt Strahm will be in the rotation or bullpen will simply be whether he’s able to get stretched out this spring, Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune tweets. Strahm tossed 40 pitches in today’s three-inning spring outing, Acee notes, which could bode well for the southpaw’s chances given that there are still three weeks of camp remaining. Strahm, 27, was primarily a reliever in San Diego last season but has started at the minor league level in the past — primarily with the Royals. While Strahm shined as a bullpen option in San Diego last season, it’s understandable that the Friars would want to see if they could potentially coax more innings out of the intriguing southpaw.

Phillies Introduce Bryce Harper

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The Phillies introduced the new face of their franchise, $330MM outfielder Bryce Harper, at a press conference Saturday in Clearwater, Fla. Bob Nightengale of USA Today, Scott Lauber and Matt Breen of Philly.com, Todd Zolecki of MLB.com and Jim Salisbury of NBC Sports Philadelphia were among the reporters on hand to cover the presser, which also featured agent Scott Boras and Phillies owner John Middleton.

After Middleton stated in November that the Phillies were expecting to spend “stupid” money in the offseason, it came as no surprise that they emerged with Harper on a record-setting contract. And Middleton referenced his famous November declaration on Saturday, asking, “Does this look like stupid money?”

The answer is no for the Phillies, who have already sold upward of 220,000 tickets since reeling in Harper, their former division rival who spent the first seven years of his career with the Nationals. However, Middleton stressed this signing isn’t about profit for the franchise. Rather, it’s about returning the Phillies to superpower status after seven years among the dregs of the league.

“I’ve made enough money in my life,” Middleton told Boras during negotiations. “I don’t need to make more. My franchise value has risen dramatically over the last 25 years. I don’t need it to rise more. I’m here to win. I think your guy can help me win, and that’s all I want to talk about.’”

Boras, as is his wont, was colorful in summing up the Middleton-led Phillies’ successful courtship of Harper.

“The maestro wanted to build a championship, and he wanted his harp,” the game’s most famous agent quipped. “The Philadelphia-Phil-Harp-monic symphony is built.’’

While the Phillies’ pursuit of Harper was a well-publicized, months-long dance, Middleton revealed the club didn’t begin negotiating a contract with Harper’s camp until Feb. 20, the day after the Padres signed Philly target Manny Machado to a 10-year, $300MM deal. Those talks began before Middleton and his wife, Leigh, ventured to Las Vegas to meet with Harper and his wife, Kayla, on Feb. 23. It was there that the Phillies closed in on securing the coveted Harper, a six-time All-Star and onetime NL MVP whose career is on a Hall of Fame course.

“Me and my wife walked away [thinking], ‘Wow, we’re blown away by these amazing people,’ ” Harper said. “They really understand where we’re coming from, understand the family aspect of our life, understand the city of Philly and what it’s all about.”

Now that his trip to free agency’s in the rearview and he has possibly found the team with which he’ll finish his career, Harper is focused on helping the Phillies to a championship – which has eluded him to this point.

“I want to be on Broad Street, on a frigging boat, bus, or whatever it is,’’ Harper said, “and hold a trophy over my head.”

In the estimation of Harper’s camp, the structure of the contract should help the player and team achieve their goal of winning titles during the two sides’ long marriage. Because it’s a 13-year deal, the average annual value is worth a reasonable $25MM-plus per season, which will aid the Phillies from a luxury tax standpoint. And Boras noted Harper didn’t want an opt-out clause in his contract because his desire is to remain in Philadelphia and recruit future free agents to the city.

Harper even brought up the game’s foremost player, New Jersey native and Philly sports fan Mike Trout, as a potential future teammate.

“I know there’s another guy in about two years that comes off the books. We’ll see what happens to him,” Harper said of the Angels’ all-world center fielder, who’s slated to reach free agency after 2020 and whose next contract figures to eclipse Harper’s. Trout, it seems, helped influence Harper to pick the Phillies, as the latter revealed he “talked to [Trout] a lot” throughout his four-month stay on the open market.

It’s anyone’s guess whether Trout will join his friend in Philly in the next couple years. For now, the Phillies are satisfied with their current roster, with the addition of Harper serving as an exclamation point to a productive few months. Having added Harper, catcher J.T. Realmuto, shortstop Jean Segura, outfielder Andrew McCutchen and reliever David Robertson since last season ended, Middleton regards the Phillies as the front-runners in what should be an ultra-competitive NL East – a division Harper believes is a “juggernaut.”

“I just want to win,” said Middleton, “and with Bryce, we are going to win.”

Blue Jays Notes: Top FAs, Stroman, Travis

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The latest on the Blue Jays, all of which comes courtesy of Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet:

  • The Blue Jays “checked in” on prominent Scott Boras clients Bryce Harper, Dallas Keuchel and Marwin Gonzalez in free agency, but talks didn’t get serious in any of the three cases, Nicholson-Smith reports. Regarding Harper, there were “not a lot of conversations” on the Jays’ side, a source told Nicholson-Smith. “Some, but not a lot.” Toronto was never strongly connected to Harper during his drawn-out trip to free agency, which finally ended this week when he accepted the Phillies’ 13-year, $330MM offer. The 31-year-old Keuchel’s still available, meanwhile, though it doesn’t seem the Jays – who aren’t expected to contend in 2019 – are in position to sign a 30-something pitcher to a lucrative contract.
  • While right-hander Marcus Stroman has frequented trade rumors in recent months, Nicholson-Smith suggests nobody has approached Toronto’s asking price yet. For now, “trade talks are relatively quiet,” Nicholson-Smith writes, though he notes that could change if a starter-needy team loses out on Keuchel and pivots to Stroman as a Plan B. Stroman, who’s in his second-last year of team control, made headlines last month when he expressed frustration toward the Blue Jays for neither extending his contract nor being more active in free agency (they’ve since agreed to deals with fellow righties Clay Buchholz and Bud Norris, which could assuage Stroman to some degree). Whether he opens 2019 with Toronto or another club, Stroman will attempt to bounce back from an uncharacteristically poor 2018 season, during which he notched a 5.54 ERA with 6.77 K/9 and 3.17 BB/9 over 102 1/3 innings.
  • Oft-injured second baseman Devon Travis will sit out at least the next few days because of left knee inflammation, Nicholson-Smith relays. Manager Charlie Montoyo isn’t exactly pushing the panic button over the issue, but it nonetheless continues a discouraging run of lower-body issues in recent years for Travis, who’s coming off a disastrous campaign in which he slashed .232/.275/.381 and recorded minus-0.5 fWAR in 378 plate appearances. Should Travis begin 2019 on the injured list, Lourdes Gurriel Jr. would likely assume the reins at second, leaving a utility infield spot for Eric Sogard or Richard Urena, per Nicholson-Smith.

More On Bryce Harper: Werth, Phillies, Nats Farewell, New Teammates

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Former National and Phillie Jayson Werth was unsurprised to hear about his former teammate’s decision to sign in Philadelphia, per Adam Kilgore of the Washington Post. Werth knows the trek up I-95 well, as he went the opposite direction in the winter before 2011 when he ended a four-year run in Philly by joining a DC club that had drafted Harper the June prior. Werth’s perspective is unique, obviously, because of his relationship to mentee Bryce Harper, but Werth said he and Harper never discussed free agency or Philadelphia, despite speaking a couple of times over the winter. Werth likes the deal for both sides,“You’re getting a young Bryce Harper for his whole career,” says Werth. “You’re going to get him through tons of prime years. Compared with some of the other deals that are out there, it’s fair in the market for both parties. If you’re Bryce, I think you love the years. If you’re Philadelphia, you probably love the price.” Werth fans will appreciate this update from his post-playing days, which is going about as one might expect: he has his hands full with organic farming, snowboarding, and the launching of his own hemp processing business in Illinois. Let’s check in on a couple other Harper notes…

  • Reuben Frank of NBC Sports Philadelphia takes a look at the ten free agents in Philly history who made the biggest splash upon signing. Current 76ers GM Elton Brand makes the list, as does Werth’s former teammate Cliff Lee and MLB’s hit king Pete Rose. 
  • The Nationals bid Harper a fond farewell from their Twitter account in advance of his introduction in Philly. There does not appear to be quite the level of heartbreak one might expect from fans in Washington, perhaps due to Harper’s early flirtations with the Yankees, or the protracted nature of his departure, or the fact that his national fame predates his Nats career. Of course, the suppression of hurt feelings is a time-tested defense mechanism after a breakup, though the development of Juan Soto and Victor Robles certainly helps soften the blow. Harper leaves the Nationals second to only Ryan Zimmerman in many offensive categories since the club moved to Washington, including home runs, walks, runs, RBIs, extra-base hits and total bases. Add in the organization’s history in Montreal and Harper’s .900 OPS ranks second all-time, bested only by Vladimir Guerrero’s .978 OPS with the Expos.
  • Harper’s future teammates, meanwhile, are excited about the expectations Harper brings to the club, per MLB.com’s Richard Justice. Already many of the comments from Phillies players like Rhys Hoskins and Andrew McCutchen center on this team’s potential as a World Series contender. “[Harper] wants to be a Phillie for the rest of his career, pretty much. I get goosebumps thinking about it,” says Jake Arrieta, a guy who knows something about what it takes to win a World Series. “I doubt I’ll play for another 13 years, but I would love to be here for 13 years with him.” It’s safe to say Arrieta will need to kick his pilates routine into high gear if he’s to stick around that long, as he will turn 45 in March of the final year of Harper’s deal.

Phillies To Introduce Bryce Harper Today At 2pm

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Newest Phillie Bryce Harper will be available to the media at his introductory press conference today at 2pm EST in Clearwater, Florida. You can watch the press conference live on MLB.com and MLBNetwork.

Along with Harper and agent Scott Boras, GM Matt Klentak and managing partner John Middleton will be present and available to the media from the top of the first base dugout at Spectrum Field, where the press conference is taking place. The Phillies gave word of their 13-year union with Harper via tweet yesterday.

In a separate press release, the Phillies officially announced the signing. The Phillies title Harper “one of the premier players in Major League Baseball” and “a multi-media star” while often referencing Harper’s age alongside his varied career accomplishments.

Harper himself tweeted a photo of the new cover for Sony’s MLB the Show 19, on which he appears in his new Phillies garb. After wearing number 34 in Washington, Harper will switch to number three in Philadelphia.

Check out a roundup of MLBTR’s Notes & Observations from the Harper signing here, or find out what the readers think of the new deal with this MLBTR Poll.

Phillies Sign Bryce Harper

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TODAY: The deal is official, as per a simple tweet from the Phillies’ Twitter feed stating “We got him.”

THURSDAY, 7:23pm: Harper will receive a $10MM salary and a $20MM signing bonus for the upcoming season, tweets Heyman. He’ll then be paid $26MM annually from 2020-28 and $22MM annually from 2029-31.

1:51pm: The Phillies and star outfielder Bryce Harper have made quite the commitment to one another, according to reports. The sides have agreed in principle to a 13-year, $330MM deal that puts Harper in Philadelphia through his age-38 season.

Unlike virtually all recent mega-contracts, this one comes without caveats. Harper gets full no-trade rights and does not possess any opt-out opportunities. The contract won’t come with deferrals, though it is said to have a front-loaded structure.

The end to Harper’s drawn-out free agency seemed to come suddenly. It may be that the Phillies finally met his asking price after late-breaking interest from the Dodgers and Giants.

When the dust settled, Harper had landed the biggest contract in MLB history. He just tops the $325MM guarantee the Marlins gave Giancarlo Stanton over a 13-year term, though it’s important to note that deal came in an extension scenario.

In taking the largest overall contract, Harper did make a clear sacrifice on average annual value. He’ll earn just over $25MM per season annually, well under the $30MM average commanded recently by Manny Machado in his deal with the Padres and $33.4MM promised in the seven new seasons covered by Nolan Arenado’s extension with the Rockies.

That reduced annual value won’t likely mean much in the way of sacrificed earning power, as it covers only three late-career seasons. It does help the Phillies to reduce the annual competitive balance tax hit from the signing, which could assist the organization as it looks to maintain competitiveness over a long marriage with its new star.

Beyond the market impact, this move sets the stage for a fascinating season (and beyond) in the National League East. The Phillies, Nationals, and Mets have all made win-now moves in hopes of dethroning a Braves team that is still full of young talent.

Harper’s move up the interstate from D.C. brings an end to a productive tenure with the Nats, reversing the career arc of recently retired former teammate Jayson Werth on a much grander scale. Harper’s exciting debut campaign was punctuated by a memorable run-in with the Phillies and then-ace Cole Hamels, the club that the Nationals were then seeking to eclipse as the premier outfit in the division.

The Washington organization did make a run at keeping Harper, but wasn’t able to work things out. Some might say that he’d have been better off taking the ten-year, $300MM offer that was reportedly put on the table. Reports have made clear that a roughly a third of that money would have been deferred, greatly driving down its true value.

Rather than take a deferred contract, Harper searched for and found the type of fully guaranteed, non-deferred deal he sought with the Philadelphia organization. The move punctuates an offseason that lived up to expectations for the Phillies’ faithful. The club already added the game’s best catcher in J.T. Realmuto, acquired a strong shortstop in Jean Segura, and added veterans including Andrew McCutchen and David Robertson. It’s imaginable that there’s more still to come, though perhaps the initial focus will be on making a roster-clearing move to accommodate the newest addition.

Investing in Harper gives the Phillies the game’s most recognizable player. He’s also quite a good one, even if he hasn’t shown that he can consistently produce at the otherworldly levels he did in a magical 2015 season. Harper’s ups and downs have come with a very lofty mean, of course — he’s a .279/.388/.512 career hitter with 184 home runs in nearly four thousand career plate appearances — though the aggregate remains every so slightly disappointing given his nearly unmatched talent level. Defensive questions arose last year, as Harper graded quite poorly. That was cause for concern in some quarters, though there’s also reason to believe that he can turn things around.

We at MLBTR would be remiss not to acknowledge that the out-on-a-limb estimation we put forth on Harper early in the offseason — a 14-year pact worth $420MM — ultimately proved to be a dramatic overreach. At the time of our initial top 50 rankings, we were of the belief that because Harper and Machado were non-traditional free agents (i.e. legitimate superstars who’d not yet played their age-26 seasons), traditional contractual structures wouldn’t apply to them. With so much talk in the preceding offseason about the teams who bend over backward to dip below the luxury tax in advance of this offseason’s crop of free agents, our team fully anticipated a widespread level of interest that simply never came to fruition.

Rather, with only three to four serious bidders for most of the winter, Harper and Boras had to claw to reach a point at which we expected the bidding to begin. The end result — a significantly lengthier term with the intent of tamping down the average annual value/luxury tax hit — was, as noted at the time, a highly plausible outcome, though securing a record-setting guarantee required lowering the AAV further than our forecast.

Predictions aside, Harper’s deal sets a new high-water mark on which premier players of the future will set their sights when seeking open-market contracts or, at least, extensions on the cusp of free agency. One can imagine, to varying extents, the Harper guarantee at least serving as a talking point when Mike Trout and Mookie Betts, both controlled through the 2020 season, begin to take an earnest look at their next contracts. Of course, they’d reach free agency at three and two years older than Harper was this winter, respectively, so it’s far from a direct comparison. But, as the Stanton contract did in this instance, the Harper contract will now serve as a barometer that agents and superstar players alike will aim to topple — even if by only a narrow measure.

Jon Heyman of MLB Network (Twitter link) first reported the deal. Jeff Passan of ESPN.com (Twitter links) and Jim Bowden of The Athletic (Twitter link) had the key terms, with Barry Svrluga of the Washington Post (Twitter link) and MLB.com’s Jesse Sanchez (via Twitter) adding details.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Ken Williams Discusses White Sox Pursuit Of Machado, Harper

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The White Sox took a rare foray into the high-end free agent market this winter but came away empty-handed in their attempts to sign either Manny Machado or Bryce Harper.  Machado ended up signing a ten-year, $300MM deal with the Padres, while Harper landed the most guaranteed money in baseball history ($330MM) on a 13-year contract from the Phillies.

In the wake of those enormous deals, White Sox executive VP Ken Williams defended his team against criticism from fans and pundits that the Sox should have spent more to come away with one of the two superstars.  “It’s a shame if it’s being portrayed that we were on the cheap on this thing,” Williams told Daryl Van Schouwen of the Chicago Sun-Times.  “That’s really interesting because, holy s—, that’s a quarter of a billion dollars we offered [Machado] with a chance to be higher than what he’s getting.”

In regards to Harper, the White Sox had meetings with the outfielder and agent Scott Boras, but the team ultimately felt Harper’s asking price was simply too high, though Williams liked Harper personally.  With Machado, however, the Sox made a much more ardent push, including the contract Williams referenced.

Chicago’s top offer to Machado was a reported $250MM in guaranteed money over eight years, plus a pair of $35MM vesting options for the 2027 and 2028 seasons.  Additional escalators and incentives could have maxed the deal out at $350MM over the decade-long span.  Based just on the guaranteed years, Machado would’ve received an average annual value of $31.25MM per season, topping the $30MM AAV he’ll receive in San Diego.

“People are lost on the fact that on a yearly basis, our offer was more than San Diego’s….So it was about years guaranteed,” Williams said.  “So there is an argument that could be made that our offer was the better of the two. It certainly had more upside for him. All he had to do was basically stay healthy.”

Williams shared in the fanbase’s disappointment that neither player was signed, saying that, “Rest assured that no one is feeling what Rick [White Sox GM Rick Hahn] and I are feeling because every single day since June of last year, this is what we had planned for, the pursuit of both Harper and Machado.

“Harper [was] well out of our range. With Machado, we extended ourselves as far as we could without jeopardizing what we’re going to need to do in the future….Our fans would have been much more disappointed in our inability to keep this next core together.  We would have overextended ourselves had we gone to an uncomfortable level.”

Williams isn’t wrong in suggesting that a $250MM offer is a major commitment — after all, prior to Nolan Arenado’s extension with the Rockies and the Harper/Machado signings, only three contracts in baseball history had ever topped the $250MM guaranteed money threshold.  The most obvious counter-argument, of course, is that if the Sox were willing to go that far in their offer, it seems short-sighted to then ask Machado to absorb the risk for the vesting option years.  It’s no small feat for any player to “basically stay healthy” in their mid-30’s, and it’s hard to imagine any player passing on that guarantee from the Padres for 2027-28 in order to chase the opportunity for only $20MM-$50MM more in salary from the White Sox.  (I say “only” since that amount wouldn’t seem particularly enticing to a player like Machado who’d already amassed a fortune. By that same token, an extra $1.25MM in AAV is something of a drop in the bucket someone already making $30MM.)

The comments about how a Machado deal could impact future contracts might be tougher for White Sox fans to swallow.  After all, the team has just $15.25MM on the books for the 2020 season, and Tim Anderson is the only player guaranteed money in 2021 and beyond.

As Van Schouwen notes, young stars like Yoan Moncada, Eloy Jimenez, Michael Kopech, Carlos Rodon, and Anderson won’t start to get expensive for years.  Anderson is already signed to an extension through at least 2022, Rodon has two arbitration years remaining, Moncada won’t be arb-eligible until 2021, Kopech has barely pitched at the MLB level, and Jimenez has yet to even make his Major League debut.  Even all five of these players did develop into stars, extensions for all on top of a ten-year Machado contract shouldn’t have been much of a stretch for a club that plays in a major market like Chicago (and just landed a new broadcasting rights contract).

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