Stark On Rollins, Fielder, Pujols, Olivo, Tigers
A number of iconic players are in contract years, so ESPN.com’s Jayson Stark looks ahead to their free agent stock and provides other rumors from around the league. Here are the details:
- No one Stark spoke with predicts David Ortiz will leave the Red Sox for another team.
- Jose Reyes will be the number two free agent on the market this winter behind only Albert Pujols, according to one executive.
- Phillies GM Ruben Amaro Jr. acknowledges that it wouldn't be easy to replace Jimmy Rollins, even though the shortstop is no longer an MVP-caliber player. The Phillies ‘poked around’ for possible alternatives at short last offseason, according to Stark, who predicts a two-year deal for Rollins and the Phils this winter.
- Prince Fielder will no doubt sign a lucrative free agent deal, but one executive says the first baseman’s body will be an issue: "It has been since high school, and it always will be." Fielder is 27 now, so an eight-year deal would expire after his age-35 season.
- Pujols will test the market, but Stark and his sources find it hard to believe that he’d leave St. Louis for any old team. One executive predicts that the Cubs are the Cardinals’ main threat.
- The Cubs aren’t ready to start selling and haven’t started shopping Carlos Zambrano, despite his recent outburst.
- The Red Sox offered Miguel Olivo a one-year deal before re-signing Jason Varitek last offseason. Olivo eventually signed a two-year deal with the Mariners.
- The Rangers are ‘stepping up’ their search for a right-handed setup man and maintain interest in Nationals reliever Todd Coffey.
- Rival teams say the Tigers are looking for a left-handed reliever. Southpaws Daniel Schlereth, David Purcey, Charlie Furbush and Adam Wilk are currently in Detroit’s bullpen.
Central Notes: Humber, Cubs, Rasmus, Draft
The Central divisions are home to not just the four worst records in baseball (the Twins, Astros, Cubs and Royals) but also to the Cardinals and their MLB-best 37-25 record. Here's some news from the middle of the baseball map…
- Phil Humber's improbable journey from being a third overall pick to injury-riddled obscurity to a star in the White Sox rotation is chronicled by ESPNChicago's Jon Greenberg.
- The Cubs have no plans to rush Brett Jackson to the Major Leagues, reports MLB.com's Carrie Muskat. Jackson just recently returned to action after a finger injury. Muskat's piece also contains updates on several other Cubs prospects.
- The Cardinals would be "crazy" to think about dealing Colby Rasmus, writes Bernie Miklasz of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch.
- The Tigers took position players with 10 of their first 11 draft picks, and 24 of their first 29 picks were college players. Baseball America's John Wagner looks at how both trends were a departure from Detroit's recent draft strategies.
- Bill Hall has cleared waivers and is now a free agent, tweets Steve Campbell of the Houston Chronicle. Hall was put on release waivers by the Astros on Monday.
- The Astros can also claim the first signing of the 2011 Amateur Draft, as 44th-round pick Blake Ford told Stephen Goff of the Houston Chronicle (Twitter link) that he will sign tonight. Ford, a right-hander from Lamar University, happened to have tickets to tonight's Astros-Cardinals game so he figured he would take care of his contract while at the ballpark. Also from Goff, the Astros have already signed two other draft picks.
Quick Hits: Johnson, Tigers, Kouzmanoff
With the first round of the 2011 draft in the rear view mirror, let's take a look at a few links..
- Slugger Nick Johnson was in the Indians' clubhouse before tonight's game against the Twins, but skipper Manny Acta says that it doesn't mean that we'll see the veteran promoted to the majors, writes Jordan Bastian of MLB.com. Instead, the first baseman will be promoted from Double-A Akron to Triple-A Columbus.
- Because of their signing of Victor Martinez, the Tigers were without a first round pick tonight. Six months later, Tigers VP David Chadd has no regrets, writes MLB.com's Jason Beck. The club wound up surrendering the No. 19 overall pick to the Red Sox, who used the pick to take UConn pitcher Matt Barnes.
- Athletics third baseman Kevin Kouzmanoff was shocked to learn of his demotion to Triple-A tonight, writes Jane Lee of MLB.com.
Draft Links: Rendon, Bauer, Cole, Mock Drafts
We've already learned that right-hander Gerrit Cole will be the Pirates' choice with the first overall pick in today's amateur draft, and it seems that the next two picks are also starting to crystalize. "Barring huge late surprises," tweets Danny Knobler of CBSSports.com, the top three look to be Cole, Anthony Rendon (to the Mariners) and Trevor Bauer (to the Diamondbacks). Here's the latest as we're just hours away from the 2011 draft…
- Cole, Rendon and Bauer are the first three picks for Baseball America's Jim Callis in his final mock draft. This represents a reversal for Callis, who said on Friday that "[Danny] Hultzen to Arizona was the biggest lock in the first six picks." Instead, Callis has Hultzen falling to the Nationals at No. 6.
- Francisco Lindor had a great workout with the Mariners and there were rumors Seattle could take the high school shortstop with the No. 2 pick, reports Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus. Still, Goldstein predicts Seattle to draft Rendon in his latest mock since Jack Zduriencik didn't see much of Lindor in game action and, if the M's did branch out to take a high school player, they might prefer Bubba Starling.
- Marc Hulet of Fangraphs and MLB.com's Jonathan Mayo also have Cole, Rendon and Bauer as the first three picks in their last mock drafts.
- Also from Mayo, he names the ten best draft picks in history according to their placement in the draft order. For instance, Alex Rodriguez is the best first overall pick ever, Reggie Jackson is the best second overall pick ever, etc.
- Now that it appears Cole will be Pittsburgh's pick at No. 1, the second-guessing has already begun. "I think history suggests that the Pirates may be making a mistake here," writes Dave Cameron of Fangraphs, who cites the surprisingly weak crop of pitchers taken with the first overall pick. (The jury is still out, of course, on David Price and Stephen Strasburg.)
- Meanwhile, Tom Krasovic of West Coast Bias asks five scouts and an executive who they would rather draft between Cole and Bauer. Cole won the informal poll, but only by a 4-2 margin.
- Nationals owner Mark Lerner says his team won't hesitate to spend to get the draft picks they want, reports James Wagner of the Washington Post (via the Post's Adam Kilgore). "Last year we had great luck in going after kids with signability issues like A.J. Cole and Robbie Ray, and hopefully we’ll have the same opportunity again this year if the opportunity presents itself," Lerner said.
- The Rockies are looking at Hawaii second baseman Kolten Wong or UNC shortstop Levi Michael with the 20th overall pick in the first round, tweets ESPN's Keith Law. Colorado apparently won't be selecting Utah first baseman C.J. Cron.
- The Tigers have had success finding Major League players in the late rounds of recent drafts, reports MLive.com's Matt Sussman. Detroit won't have a pick until the 76th overall selection after losing its first round pick to Boston as compensation for signing Victor Martinez.
- MLBTR's Dan Mennella already posted a set of draft links earlier today, so click here for even more draft news on this busy day in baseball.
AL Central Notes: Tigers, Twins, Hernandez, Dunn
On this date in 1997, the Tigers drafted Matt Anderson first overall (under management that has since been replaced). The flame-throwing right-hander briefly became the Tigers' closer, but didn't match the success of others in his draft class like J.D. Drew, Troy Glaus, Vernon Wells and Lance Berkman. Anderson attempted a comeback with the Phillies this year, but has since been released. Here's the latest from around the AL Central…
- David Mayo of The Grand Rapids Press defends Tigers manager Jim Leyland and GM Dave Dombrowski, saying the Tigers are annual contenders and “give the Michigan summer a sporting purpose.”
- Yes, the Twins are just 18-37, but GM Bill Smith tells John Shipley of the Pioneer Press that it's not too late for a comeback. Smith says better health and more home games and intra-divisional series could get the Twins back into contention. Smith also noted that his re-worked bullpen "hasn't worked" and expressed confidence in Alexi Casilla's skills.
- The Royals have been linked to international prospect Elier Hernandez, according to Jorge Arangure Jr. of ESPN.com (on Twitter). The outfielder is likely to command a $2-3MM bonus once he's eligible to sign after July 2nd.
- Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports suggests that Adam Dunn's struggles and $56MM contract with the White Sox could affect the way American League teams build their rosters going forward. Red Sox DH David Ortiz tells Morosi that DHing is harder than it seems (for more on Ortiz's market value, click here).
Nine Teams In Violation Of Debt Service Rules
The Dodgers and Mets are among the nine MLB teams in violation of MLB’s debt service rules, according to Bill Shaikin of the LA Times. The regulations came into being in 2002 and are intended to limit a team’s debt to ten times its yearly earnings and ensure that each team can pay its bills. The Orioles, Cubs, Tigers, Marlins, Phillies, Rangers and Nationals are also in violation of the rules, according to Shaikin.
MLB executive VP of labor relations Rob Manfred says he isn’t “concerned about the overall economic condition of the industry" and a National League executive called the high number of teams out of compliance a “hiccup” for an otherwise healthy league.
Along with the competitive balance tax and revenue sharing, the debt service rule figures to be a major financial issue in the negotiations for a new Collective Bargaining Agreement between the players and the owners. The Phillies have confirmed that they are not currently compliant with the debt-service rule, according to Matt Gelb of the Philadelphia Inquirer.
Law On Royals, Josh Bell, Dodgers, Mets
Draft junkies, you're missing out if you don't read Keith Law's latest chat at ESPN. Insider is required to read it, and is well worth your money, but here are a few highlights.
- With the fifth overall pick, Law sees the Royals taking a college arm or Dylan Bundy. Law and Jim Callis of Baseball America projected them to take Matt Barnes or Gerrit Cole, respectively, in late May mock drafts. MLB.com's Jonathan Mayo went with high school outfielder Bubba Starling in a mock draft published today. Mayo mentions UCLA righty Trevor Bauer and high school shortstop Francisco Lindor as well, but Law says the Royals are not on Lindor.
- One team that is in on Lindor is the Mariners at #2, as ESPN's Shannon Drayer tweets that they worked him out at Safeco Field. However, Law says that while the Ms like Lindor and Starling, he doubts they'd pass on Anthony Rendon if the Pirates take someone else.
- Law hears rumors that the Tigers and Red Sox are in on high school outfielder Josh Bell, a Boras Corporation advisee who sent a letter to the MLB Scouting Bureau saying he intends to honor his commitment to the University of Texas and does not want to be drafted. Law hears a "widespread rumor" about the Tigers drafting Bell and offering $6MM, presumably with the #76 overall pick (their first).
- The Red Sox don't know how the draft will change under the upcoming Collective Bargaining Agreement, so they intend to take advantage of this year's draft, GM Theo Epstein told Ian Browne of MLB.com. Boston will select four of the first 40 players under second-year scouting director Amiel Sawdaye.
- Law hears high school righty Robert Stephenson "very strongly" for the Dodgers at #16. He also hears that the Dodgers can't go over slot with any pick, so hopefully Stephenson is comfortable with $1.8MM or so. High school shortstop Javier Baez and high school righty Taylor Guerrieri have been projected for the Dodgers in various recent mock drafts.
- Derek Fisher, a high school outfielder with "light-tower raw power" according to Law, will be a tough sign with demands of $2MM or more.
- Silly numbers like Danny Hultzen's reported $13MM demand "just get ignored," says Law. To get to know the University of Virginia southpaw, check out Josh Barr's article for the Washington Post. The article says Hultzen has visited with officials from only the first six teams picking in the draft, and told those clubs what he'll need to sign.
- The Mets are leaning toward a college arm at #13, writes Law. Mayo went with Vanderbilt's Sonny Gray in today's mock.
- For a look at each team's picks within the first 90, click here.
Brandon Inge Picks Up Ten And Five Rights
As of today, Brandon Inge has ten years of big league service. They've all been with Detroit, so the third baseman now has ten and five rights, which means the Tigers now need Inge's permission to trade him.
Inge, who signed a two-year, $11.5MM deal last offseason, now has limited trade value, so the point is mostly moot from a transactions standpoint. The 34-year-old has a .215/.284/.291 line 178 plate appearances into the season. Inge's calling card has always been power, but he has just nine extra base hits this year. He told MLBTR last month that he hopes to wear the old English 'D' for a long time.
Jose Valverde’s 2012 Option
Just about anything could happen between Memorial Day and the beginning of November, when the Tigers have to decide whether to exercise their $9MM option for Jose Valverde. Injuries, trades and the performance of other Detroit relievers could affect the Tigers’ willingness to commit to another year of Valverde, so consider this an early and imprecise look at the closer’s option.
What’s unlikely to change for the 33-year-old is his profile as a hard-throwing right-hander who strikes lots of people out, allows more than his share of walks and works in and out of jams for saves. Since becoming Arizona’s full-time closer in 2007, that’s essentially what Valverde has offered and it doesn’t figure to change in the next five months.
So far in 2011, Valverde has a 3.52 ERA (3.53 xFIP) with 12 saves, 9.0 K/9 and 3.9 BB/9. His fastball has averaged 94 mph and he has a 41.3 % ground ball rate through 23 frames.
Those are respectable numbers, but they’re not enough to command $30MM-plus on the open market, as Rafael Soriano and Mariano Rivera did last offseason. Valverde compares better with the likes of Kevin Gregg, Bobby Jenks and J.J. Putz, who signed two-year deals in the $10-12MM range last year.
Those contracts are worth $5-6MM per season, which makes $9MM seem like a lot for one year of Valverde (unlike most club options this one has no buyout). Plus, there will be even more selection than usual for teams seeking relief this winter, because there’s a deep class of free agent relievers.
Yet it seems unlikely that the Tigers will shy away from Valverde’s option if they believe he’s the best option for them. GM Dave Dombrowski, who’s in a contract year of his own, has shown that he’s willing to move quickly to secure the players he wants, even if it means spending aggressively.
Last offseason, for example, he signed Joaquin Benoit in mid-November instead of waiting for bargains. That particular deal hasn’t worked out to this point, but it shows that Dombrowski tends to pursue the players he wants, instead of waiting the market out for bargains (Dombrowski also locked Jhonny Peralta, Brandon Inge and Victor Martinez by Thanksgiving).
There’s no question that $9MM is on the steep side for one season of relief pitching. Plus, the Tigers could potentially obtain draft picks by turning down the option, offering arbitration and allowing Valverde to sign elsewhere. For a team that has given up its share of high draft picks in recent years, collecting an extra pick or two would likely have appeal.
As a result, the Tigers don’t figure to keep Valverde around for $9MM unless they’re convinced in his ability to perform at an elite level in 2012. But if the Tigers decide he’s the person they want in high-leverage situations next year, it's hard to imagine that an inflated salary would prevent them from keeping their closer for another season.
Photo courtesy Icon SMI.
Quick Hits: Pirates, Reyes, Mariners, Galarraga
Links for Sunday, after John Danks was unable to get his first win of 2011 this afternoon….
- It seems likely that the Pirates will place Ryan Doumit on the disabled list after he injured his ankle today, and Rob Biertempfel of The Pittsburgh-Tribune Review says (on Twitter) that Dusty Brown would get called up to replace him since Jason Jaramillo is also hurt. Pittsburgh's 40-man roster is full, so a move will have to be made to accommodate Brown.
- Andy McCullough of The Star-Ledger reports (on Twitter) that Mets shortstop Jose Reyes was again asked about his contract following today's game. "I've told you like a million times already," said Reyes, an impending free agent. "If [an extension] comes, it comes. If not, I'm going to continue to play."
- Larry Stone of The Seattle Times spoke to Mariners GM Jack Zduriencik about the upcoming draft, who indicated that he will not draft based on team need and that they have a group of about five players they're specifically targeting for the second overall pick.
- Bob Cohn of The Pittsburgh Tribune-Review wrote about the importance that decision-making plays into the success of small market teams.
- Armando Galarraga wasn't pleased about his demotion to Triple-A, writes Chris Gabel of the Reno Gazette-Journal. The right-hander was blunt about why he stayed in the Diamondbacks' organization and accepted his minor league assignment: "The money. They have to pay me $2.3MM to come here."
- The trade pulled off by the Yankees, Tigers, and Diamondbacks in 2009 was the rare three-way deal that worked out for each team, says Joel Sherman of the New York Post.
- Asked whether the Indians could pursue Jim Thome this summer, Paul Hoynes of the Cleveland Plain Dealer points out that if the Twins make him available, it likely won't be until after he hits his 600th home run. Hoynes doubts that the veteran slugger is a fit for the Tribe anyway.
- While the Red Sox committed over $300MM to Carl Crawford and Adrian Gonzalez this year, their smaller investments are also paying dividends, writes Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe.
- P.J. Walters was removed from the Cardinals' 40-man roster and cleared waivers earlier this weekend, according to Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch.