Carlos Beltran May Retire After 2016 Season
Carlos Beltran may retire after the 2016 season, reports Zach Braziller of the New York Post. Beltran is entering his age 39 season and the final campaign of a three-year, $45MM deal signed prior to 2014. Beltran allowed that his decision will be affected by the level of performance he believes he can contribute in 2017. “If I feel like I produce well to the point where I can make a good impact on a team, then I can play one more year. Or if I feel like I have [had] enough, I’ll go home.”
After a rough 2014 campaign, the Yankees outfielder bounced back in 2015 with a .276/.337/.471 line and slightly below average defense in 531 plate appearances. Injuries have slowed Beltran in his time with New York too. While the original plan probably included using him at designated hitter with regularity, the returns of Alex Rodriguez and Mark Teixeira last season forced Beltran into the outfield. The club will have to juggle a similar alignment this year.
If it is indeed the last season for Beltran, he’ll go out with an impressive 19-year resume. Over parts of 18 seasons, the switch-hitter has posted a career .280/.355/.490 line with 392 home runs, 311 stolen bases, and 2,454 hits in 9,929 plate appearances. He’s poised to reach 400 home runs, 2,500 hits, and 10,000 plate appearances this year. Defensive metrics also rated him as an excellent defender during his prime. With 66 career WAR, he has a legitimate case for Hall of Fame honors.
Bolstering his candidacy is a strong postseason track record. In 223 plate appearances, Beltran hit .332/.441/.674 with 16 home runs and 40 RBI. Win Probability Added (WPA), an advanced stat that measures the value of each play relative to the state of the game*, credits Beltran with about three wins in what amounts to about a third of a season. In other words, he hit like the 2015 version of Bryce Harper when the games counted the most.
Beltran has spent most of his career split between the Royals, Mets, Cardinal, and Yankees. He spent half the 2004 season with the playoff bound Astros – a year that included his best postseason performance. His .435/.536/1.022 October slash set up a seven-year, $119MM contract with the Mets. At the time, it was just the 10th deal to cross the $100MM threshold. Notably, the Giants traded Zack Wheeler for Beltran at the 2011 trade deadline.
*By comparison, WAR measures the value of each play without regard to game context. According to WAR, a walkoff grand slam down three runs in the bottom of the ninth is equally valuable as a grand slam in a 20-1 blowout. Using WPA, the walkoff grand slam is hugely valuable whereas the blowout grand slam is worth almost nothing.
Astros To Acquire Ken Giles
SATURDAY 12:06pm: The Phillies have announced the trade. However, several components have changed. The Phillies will receive Velasquez, Oberholtzer, Eshelman, Mark Appel, and Harold Arauz. Derek Fisher, who was originally rumored to be headed to Philadelphia, is not part of the trade. The Astros will also receive infielder Jonathan Arauz from the Phillies. Although both are Panamanian prospects, the Arauz’s are not related.
Appel, the number one pick in the 2013 draft, has experienced mixed success in the minors. The 24-year-old reached Triple-A and posted a 4.48 ERA with 8.03 K/9 and 3.69 BB/9. MLB.com ranked Appel as the Astro’s second best prospect between 2015 draft picks Alex Bregman and Daz Cameron. He’s also ranked 43rd overall. His fastball velocity has been inconsistent in the minors, ranging from the low-90s to 98 mph. He also throws a slider and a changeup.
Harold Arauz, 20, pitched in Low-A last season with a 5.75 ERA, 9.06 K/9, and 3.14 BB/9 in 51 innings. Per Baseball America’s Ben Badler, Arauz leans heavily on a low-90s cutter. Badler also commented on Jonathan Arauz. The newly acquired Astro was ranked the 20th best prospect in the Gulf Coast League. The 17-year-old middle infielder was also considered the best Panamanian prospect in the 2014 international market.
In a related move, the Phillies have designated reliever Dan Otero to make room for Velasquez and Oberholtzer on the 40-man roster, tweets Todd Zolecki of MLB.com.
THURSDAY 12:13am: The final player in the deal will be righty Thomas Eshelman, who will head from the Astros to the Phillies, the Houston Chronicle’s Evan Drellich tweets. The 21-year-old Eshelman, a second-round pick this past June out of Cal State Fullerton, pitched just 10 1/3 innings in the Astros organization. Before the draft, MLB.com characterized him as a polished pitcher who could move through the minors quickly but might end up as a back-of-the-rotation type of starter. At the time of the trade, he ranked as the Astros’ 13th-best prospect.
WEDNESDAY 7:52pm: MLB.com’s Todd Zolecki tweets that a fourth player is headed to the Phillies in the deal as well.
7:38pm: The Astros and Phillies are in agreement on a trade that will send right-hander Vincent Velasquez, lefty Brett Oberholtzer and another prospect to Philadelphia in exchange for young closer Ken Giles, reports Mark Berman of FOX 26 Houston (Twitter link). Outfielder Derek Fisher will also head to Philadelphia in the deal, Berman clarifies (on Twitter). The trade is pending medical reviews. CSNPhilly.com’s Jim Salisbury first broke news that the two sides were nearing an agreement, and he added details along with ESPN’s Jayson Stark as they emerged.
Giles, who turned 25 in late September, took over as closer in Philadelphia following the trade of Jonathan Papelbon and continued to display the dominance he’s exhibited since breaking into the Majors upon being moved to a more prominent role. In 115 2/3 career innings, the former seventh-round pick has a masterful 1.56 ERA with 11.8 K/9, 2.8 BB/9 and a 44.6 percent ground-ball rate. Giles’ fastball has averaged just a shade under 97 mph in the Majors (96.8), so he’ll satisfy Houston GM Jeff Luhnow’s previously stated interest in adding a hard-throwing arm that the back end of the Astros’ bullpen had been missing.
By adding Giles, the Astros will deepen their bullpen considerably. Luke Gregerson, who performed well as the club’s primary closer in 2015, will return to the setup capacity in which he thrived for much of his career. He’ll be joined there by side-arming Pat Neshek, the quietly excellent Will Harris and Josh Fields in 2016. Houston will still need to address its dearth of left-handed relief options, however, as its two primary southpaws — Tony Sipp and Oliver Perez — both departed as free agents. Perez has since signed with the Nationals, though a reunion with Sipp remains a possibility, as he’s still a free agent and there has reportedly been mutual interest between the parties.
Houston will control Giles through at least the 2020 season if all goes well. With one year, 113 days of Major League service time, Giles will fall shy of Super Two designation and thus will not be arbitration eligible until the 2017-18 offseason. He’ll earn scarcely more than the league minimum in each of the next two seasons (barring an extension), providing Houston with financial flexibility to address needs elsewhere on the roster.
The centerpiece of the deal for the Astros is Velasquez — a 23-year-old righty who entered the 2015 season as a consensus Top 100 prospect and made his big league debut after performing exceptionally well at the Double-A level. Velasquez logged a 1.91 with a 45-to-13 K/BB ratio in 33 innings at Double-A in addition to posting a 4.37 ERA in 55 2/3 innings at the Major League level where he struck out 58 and walked 21. He’ll immediately be in the mix for a rotation spot with the Phillies, though it’s possible that Philadelphia may want to get Velasquez some time at Triple-A, where he has yet to throw so much as a single inning.
While Velasquez may need some additional development before slotting into the Phillies’ rotation on a full-time basis, Oberholtzer should be able to step into the starting five from day one. The 26-year-old has been up and down with the Astros over the past three seasons but has totaled 45 appearances (42 starts) and recorded a solid, if unspectacular 3.94 ERA with 5.9 K/9, 2.1 BB/9 and a 38.5 percent ground-ball rate. That ground-ball rate, though, isn’t fully representative of Oberholtzer’s new skill set, as he began using a cutter in 2015 that upped his rate to 48.8 percent in his sample of 34 2/3 big league innings. He’ll give the Phillies an option at the back of their rotation that can be controlled for up to five years — the same as Giles — if he’s able to consistently perform in the Majors.
Fisher, meanwhile, was the 37th overall pick in the 2014 Draft and rated as the No. 8 prospect in a deep Houston farm system, per MLB.com. The Virginia product, whom Baseball America ranked 13th among Houston farmhands entering the season, is said in their scouting report to be a toolsy outfielder with plus-plus raw power that has yet to fully manifest. He draws praise for his bat speed and above-average running, though BA noted that he has a below-average arm and has questionable route-running, so left field is probably his ultimate home.
Still just 21 years old, Fisher split the season between Class-A and Class-A Advanced, hitting .275/.364/.483 with 22 homers and 31 stolen bases before going on to bat .254/.397/.424 in 17 games in the Arizona Fall League. He’s at least a full season away from the Majors and possibly two, but Fisher gives the Phillies a potential everyday outfielder down the line if he can keep hitting the way he did in 2015. MLB.com calls him a potential “impact hitter,” even if he isn’t believed to have a future as a strong defender.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Astros Re-Sign Tony Sipp
Tony Sipp will officially be returning to the team with which he established himself as a bullpen weapon, as the Astros on Friday announced that he has re-signed with the club on a new three-year contract. Sipp, a client of the Bledsoe Agency, will reportedly receive an $18MM guarantee that will pay him an even $6MM per year from 2016-18.
The 32-year-old Sipp began his career with the Indians and, for parts of five seasons, showed promise but wasn’t able to string together consecutive strong performances. That changed once he got to Houston, where he rattled off a pair of outstanding seasons in the bullpen from 2014-15.
Over the past two years, Sipp has worked to a combined 2.66 ERA with 10.7 K/9, 2.7 BB/9 and a ground-ball rate of roughly 35 percent. Sipp has shown a mastery over both right- and left-handed hitters, holding batters of each variety to a collective OPS mark south of .600 during his tenure with the Astros to date.
That represents a rare blend for a southpaw, and explains how Sipp was able to take down such a substantial commitment. While MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes correctly assessed that Sipp would command three years, his prediction was light on the cost as we’ve seen an explosion of interest in pen arms. Sipp’s contract lands at the top of the established range for quality free agent lefties. Some of the recent three-year southpaw comparables include Zach Duke ($15MM), Boone Logan ($16.5MM), and Jeremy Affeldt ($18MM).
For Houston, this year’s Winter Meetings ended up representing an opportunity to solidify the back of the bullpen, continuing a project that started last offseason. In addition to Sipp, of course, the ‘Stros added closer Ken Giles via trade. Those two will presumably join Luke Gregerson and Pat Neshek — last year’s key additions — among the options at the back of the Houston pen.
Mark Berman of FOX 26 Houston first reported the deal (Twitter link). Evan Drellich of the Houston Chronicle reported that it was a three-year deal, and Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports tweeted that Sipp would be guaranteed $18MM. Drellich later tweeted the yearly breakdown.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Indians, Robbie Grossman Agree To Minors Deal
The Indians have agreed to terms with outfielder Robbie Grossman on a minor league deal, reports ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick (Twitter link). Grossman, who turned 26 in September, was released by the Astros back in November as clubs set their 40-man rosters to protect players from the Rule 5 Draft.
Not long ago, Grossman was considered a potential building block for the Astros. Acquired in the trade that sent Wandy Rodriguez to the Pirates, Grossman debuted as a 23-year-old with Houston and batted .268/.332/.370 in 288 plate appearances. Over the next two seasons, he’d go on to bat just .222/.323/.323, however. Though he was generally regarded as a positive defender in the outfield corners, that level offensive output wasn’t enough to keep him in Houston’s plans, particularly not with players like George Springer emerging in the Majors and the acquisitions of Carlos Gomez and Colby Rasmus blocking a road to playing time.
For Cleveland, Grossman will bring a still-young asset to the table with the potential to rebuild some of the stock that made him a top 100 prospect in the eyes of Baseball Prospectus four years ago. Grossman has consistently produced strong OBP marks throughout his minor league tenure and batted .254/.354/.349 in Triple-A this past season as a 25-year-old. (He’s a career .281/.382/.387 hitter at that level). He’ll provide further depth for a club in need of outfield options with Michael Brantley slated to miss the first month or two of the season and little certainty elsewhere on the roster.
Quick Hits: Murphy, Padres, O’s, Kazmir, Brewers, Astros
Here are a few odds and ends left over from the past 24 hours or so of Winter Meetings action.
- The Angels are open to a reunion with David Murphy as a backup plan in case they’re unable to sign a top free agent, Alden Gonzalez of MLB.com tweets. The 34-year-old Murphy hit .265/.281/.400 in 155 plate appearances after the Angels traded for him in July. If they do re-sign him, they’ll use him as the lefty half of a platoon.
- The Padres are still looking for a shortstop, but they’d like to make sure there aren’t any trades available before they head to the free-agent market to sign one, FOX Sports’ Jon Morosi tweets. Perhaps that makes sense — Ian Desmond (who didn’t have a very strong year by his standards) stands head and shoulders above the rest of the current group of free agent shortstops, and he’s followed by a number of veterans coming off weak seasons, like Jimmy Rollins, Stephen Drew and Alexei Ramirez.
- The Orioles are one of many teams interested in free agent starter Scott Kazmir, CBS Sports’ Jon Heyman tweets. With the departure of Wei-Yin Chen, the Orioles’ rotation is entirely right-handed, and they’re reportedly interested in a lefty to balance it. Kazmir would fit the bill.
- The Brewers will look to take at least one player in this morning’s Rule 5 Draft, Tom Haudricourt of the Journal Sentinel writes. As Baseball America’s J.J. Cooper previously noted, several potential Rule 5 picks come from the Astros‘ system (lefty Reymin Guduan, outfielder Teoscar Hernandez, catcher Roberto Pena, righty Chris Devenski). Haudricourt wonders if, with the fifth pick today, former Astros exec and new Brewers GM David Stearns could choose a player from his old organization.
Law On Walker, Giles, Lind Trades
Here are a few of Keith Law of ESPN’s takes on some of Wednesday’s key transactions. Law’s articles are Insider-only and contain significantly more detail that we’ll present here. We highly recommend subscribing.
- The trade for Neil Walker was a good one for the Mets, although Law is puzzled by the team’s addition of Asdrubal Cabrera. Cabrera’s deal would make sense if he were a second baseman, but with Walker in the fold, Cabrera will play shortstop, a position he can no longer play well. The Walker trade reflects the Mets’ skepticism that Dilson Herrera can take over second base next season, but Walker is a consistently solid player, and the Mets only gave up Jon Niese, who didn’t figure to play an important role for them going forward. Niese will allow the Pirates to move top prospect Tyler Glasnow along slowly, although Law notes that Niese’s lack of strikeout ability makes him a back-end starter and writes that Niese will have to improve next season to justify the Bucs picking up the first of his two options.
- In Ken Giles, the Astros got a strikeout reliever who will be a good addition to a bullpen that did register enough Ks in 2015, Law writes. They’ll also get five years of control, making Giles a valuable asset. The Phillies, however, did get plenty in return, including Vincent Velasquez, who Law thinks can stick as a starter, and Brett Oberholtzer, a back-of-the-rotation lefty who can soak up innings as the Phillies continue their rebuild.
- Adam Lind isn’t much of a defensive first baseman, Law writes, but for the Mariners, he’s still an upgrade over the recently traded Mark Trumbo. Platooning the left-handed Lind with the right-handed Jesus Montero would be a good plan, Law suggests. The Brewers, meanwhile, got three young pitchers who are possible future relievers. None of them are outstanding talents, but Milwaukee did well to get something in return for a player they didn’t really need in 2016.
Relief Notes: Rodney, Sipp, Astros, Twins, Soriano
Here are a few notes on teams’ searches for bullpen help.
- The Padres are trying to lure Fernando Rodney with an incentive-based deal, Jon Heyman of CBS Sports reports (on Twitter). The Cubs and other teams are also possibilities for Rodney. The 38-year-old former closer posted a 4.74 ERA, 8.3 K/9 and 4.2 BB/9 overall in a tough season in 2015, although he fared well after a late-August trade from Seattle to Chicago.
- GM Jerry Dipoto says the Mariners are likely to add at least one big-league free agent reliever, Bob Dutton of the Tacoma News Tribune tweets.
- The Astros have already landed Ken Giles, but they aren’t done making moves to improve their bullpen, Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports tweets. Lefty free agent Tony Sipp, who posted a 1.99 ERA, 10.3 K/9 and 2.5 BB/9 in a terrific season for Houston in 2015, remains on the Astros’ radar.
- The Twins are looking for a lefty reliever, but are unlikely to pursue Sipp or Antonio Bastardo, LaVelle E. Neal III of the Star Tribune tweets. That means they could turn to the trade market. Twins exec Terry Ryan says he would prefer to acquire a lefty capable of working multiple innings and is not interested in a LOOGY, Mike Berardino of the Pioneer Press notes (on Twitter).
- The Yankees are among the teams that have been in touch with Rafael Soriano‘s representation, Heyman tweets. The 35-year-old Soriano missed most of the 2015 season, not signing until June and then dealing with shoulder troubles, and the Cubs released him in early September. Prior to that, however, he had two relatively successful seasons as the Nationals’ closer and was terrific in ninth-inning work for the Yankees in 2012.
Astros Close To Acquiring Ken Giles
6:19pm: A source tells Salisbury that a trade sending Giles to Houston is “close” but not done yet (Twitter link).
5:15pm: Major League lefty Brett Oberholtzer, whom the Astros have reportedly been shopping, is also being discussed in talks, tweets Salisbury.
4:16pm: Stark reports that talks currently center around well-regarded right-hander Vincent Velasquez and two other prospects (Twitter link).
2:57pm: Salisbury tweets that the Phillies have pushed back their media session for the day, which could be in relation to talks centering around Giles. ESPN’s Jayson Stark tweets that Lance McCullers won’t be included in a deal for Giles, as the Astros are set on keeping him.
2:28pm: Trade talks between the Astros and Phillies centering around brilliant young closer Ken Giles are “heating up,” reports CSNPhilly.com’s Jim Salisbury (Twitter link). Houston has long been linked to top-flight relief arms, and Giles would not only give the club a dominant arm to slot into the ninth inning but also a controllable option for that role, as he’s not eligible for free agency until after the 2020 season.
Giles, who turned 25 in late September, took over as closer in Philadelphia following the trade of Jonathan Papelbon and continued to display the dominance he’s exhibited since breaking into the Majors upon being moved to a more prominent role. In 115 2/3 career innings, the former seventh-round pick has a masterful 1.56 ERA with 11.8 K/9, 2.8 BB/9 and a 44.6 percent ground-ball rate. Giles’ fastball has averaged just a shade under 97 mph in the Majors (96.8), so he’d satisfy Houston GM previously stated interest in adding a hard-throwing arm that the back end of the Astros’ bullpen presently lacks.
The asking price on Giles, one would imagine, is exceptionally high. The Red Sox paid the substantial price of Manuel Margot, Javier Guerra, Carlos Asuaje and Logan Allen for three years of Craig Kimbrel. While Giles doesn’t have Kimbrel’s lengthy track record of dominance in the Majors, he’s delivered comparable results and comes with two more years of control than did Kimbrel, two of which figure to be near the league-minimum in terms of salary. Giles should narrowly fall shy of Super Two status (he currently has one year, 113 days of Major League service time) and won’t be eligible for arbitration until after the 2017 season.
Astros, Orioles Showing Interest In Yovani Gallardo
The Astros and Orioles are among the clubs showing interest in free-agent right-hander Yovani Gallardo, according to a pair of reports from Evan Drellich of the Houston Chronicle and Jon Morosi of FOX Sports (Twitter link). It’s not clear if there have been significant discussions between Houston and Gallardo’s camp, but Morosi indicates that Baltimore is talking with Gallardo’s agent, Bobby Witt of Octagon. Drellich, though, does point out that Jim Stevenson, the scout who originally signed Gallardo, is now with the Astros. Chris Cotillo of SB Nation tweets that the Dodgers aren’t planning to enter the Gallardo market.
Gallardo, 30 in February, is coming off a solid season with the Rangers in which he totaled 184 1/3 innings of 3.42 ERA ball for his hometown club, averaging 5.9 K/9 against 3.3 BB/9 to go along with a 49.3 percent ground-ball rate. While it looked like he might settle in as a potential front-line arm from 2009-12 when he averaged about 200 innings and better than a strikeout per frame each year, Gallardo has settled in as more of a mid-rotation arm. He’s seen his strikeout rate dip considerably over the past three seasons, and his 90.4 mph average fastball in 2015 was more than two miles per hour slower than his 92.7 mph peak.
Nonetheless, Gallardo has proven to be a highly durable arm, delivering 184 or more innings in each of the past seven seasons. He’s never hit the disabled list with an arm-related injury, either, so clubs can feel reasonably confident that he can supply 180 to 200 league-average innings. That skill set has proven valuable on the free-agent market in the past, as evidenced by contracts for players like Ricky Nolasco, Ervin Santana, Scott Feldman, Jason Vargas and more. Drellich notes that a four-year deal seems like a necessary requirement to secure Gallardo’s services, which is line with MLBTR’s expectations from early November, when we predicted a four-year, $52MM contract.
Astros Fielding Interest In Numerous Key Players, Including George Springer
The Astros are fielding interest in several of their most enticing players, according to a report from Evan Drellich of the Houston Chronicle.
That includes top young outfielder George Springer, who Drellich says the club is “open to moving … if the haul is big enough.” Per MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart (via Twitter), though, Houston has not discussed Springer in any trades.
Houston has heard from teams looking at righties Vince Velasquez and Lance McCullers Jr., too, though the team is more willing to consider dealing the former. And the Cubs are among the clubs that have interest in Carlos Gomez, though Drellich says there’s a hesitancy to part with him.
In terms of possible targets, the Chronicle report notes that the ‘Stros have discussed Carlos Carrasco with the Indians, as Zack Meisel of the Plain Dealer previously tweeted. He’d obviously require a significant return to acquire. And Houston is also talking with the Yankees about closer Andrew Miller.
All in all, it seems there are numerous possibilities in play for the Astros, with the report citing a focus on pitching. It would remain extremely surprising if a player like Springer is traded, but the fact that the team is willing to consider the possibility illustrates the potential for major asset shifting. It goes without saying, of course, that he’d only be parted with in a deal for a truly significant player.