Headlines

Go To Pro Hockey Rumors
Go To Hoops Rumors

Royals Rumors

Royals Sign Jake Diekman

By | at

The Royals announced Wednesday evening that they’ve signed left-handed reliever Jake Diekman to a one-year contract with a mutual option for the 2020 season. Right-hander Jesse Hahn has been transferred to the 60-day injured list in a corresponding move. MLB.com’s Jeffrey Flanagan reports that Diekman, a client of the Beverly Hills Sports Council, will earn a $2.25MM base salary in 2019, and there’s a $500K buyout on next year’s option, making for a $2.75MM guarantee (Twitter link).

Jake Diekman | Rick Scuteri-USA TODAY Sports

Diekman, 32, has long shown a penchant for missing bats at a lofty rate but also issuing far too many free passes. Dating back to the 2014 season, he’s averaged an impressive 11.2 strikeouts against an unsightly 4.9 walks per nine innings pitched. In that time, Diekman owns a 3.91 ERA in 246 1/3 innings of relief between the Phillies, Rangers and Diamondbacks. He’s handled both lefties (.255/.346/.346) and righties (.204/.320/.337) reasonably well outside of the obvious proclivity for issuing walks.

Last season, Diekman split the year between Texas and Arizona, working to a combined 4.73 ERA with 11.1 K/9, 5.2 BB/9, 0.68 HR/9 and a 47.8 percent ground-ball rate in 53 1/3 innings. That marked the lefty’s first full season back after missing most of the 2017 campaign due to a colectomy procedure that stemmed from ulcerative colitis.

Diekman is the second veteran arm the Royals have added in the past week, joining right-hander Brad Boxberger (a teammate last year in Arizona) as a newcomer to manager Ned Yost’s bullpen. He’ll give Kansas City a much-needed, experienced lefty; prior to this addition, Brian Flynn and Tim Hill were the team’s only southpaw relievers on the 40-man roster.

Diekman and Boxberger will be joined by holdovers Wily Peralta and Kevin McCarthy, at the very least, although the remainder of the relief corps’ composition will be determined in Spring Training. There’s even been talk of utilizing veteran starter Ian Kennedy in relief this season, which underscores the point that Spring Training will be of particular importance in assigning bullpen roles.

While Kansas City technically can control Diekman for the 2020 season, it seems quite likely that this’ll be a pure one-year arrangement. Mutual options are exercised by both parties with the utmost rarity, and the Royals utilize that specific option type regularly as an accounting measure — effectively deferring a portion of free agents’ salaries by a year in doing so.

Beyond that, there’s a good chance that if Diekman pitches well in his new environs, he’ll emerge as a trade chip this summer. Kansas City is fresh off a 58-104 season and has only made some marginal additions as the continue along in a rebuilding process. Diekman netted the Rangers a pair of minor league pitchers last summer and could once again be dangled to contending clubs this June or July if the signing goes according to plan.

Central Notes: Ventura, Goldschmidt, Taillon

By | at

At the time of his tragic death in 2017, Yordano Ventura was playing on a long-term deal with the Royals that still included $20.25MM in guaranteed future salary. Sam McDowell and Vahe Gregorian of the Kansas City Star provide an update on the status of that contract and the remaining loose ends of his estate, which has claimed insolvency. Ventura’s daughter, now five, is the sole heir. Fortunately, she did already receive a significant recovery under a life insurance policy. But the estate, which has had to pay down obligations that Ventura incurred while supporting family and friends in his native Dominican Republic, is still pursuing the balance of his contract with the Royals. It appears to present some potentially novel (and likely also fact-intensive) issues. According to the piece, there does not appear to be a prior instance of a player dying during a long-term contract. Those interested in learning about the full story and potential factors in the still-unresolved contract situation will certainly want to read the Star’s full report.

Here are some more notes from the game’s central divisions:

  • The Cardinals made clear that they intend to seek a long-term deal with new star Paul Goldschmidt, and the opening of camp also starts the clock on pre-season conversations. That said, there are indications that the St. Louis organization will not impose any timing restrictions on talks, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch noted in a recent article regarding a host of Spring Training issues. The team is evidently prepared to hold discussions in whatever time and manner Goldschmidt himself prefers, even if that means keeping the line open in the midst of his first (and potentially only) season in St. Louis.
  • Pirates righty Jameson Taillon enters the 2019 season facing big expectations, as Kevin Gorman of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review writes. He also has his eye on the broader player market as a union rep and student of the business of the game. The 27-year-old starter says he’s not only hoping for free agents to earn big salaries, but rooting for those that do to perform well under their contracts. As Gorman notes, the Bucs hold Taillon in high esteem and would surely be interested in working out an extension — particularly given that he’s still a full season away from arbitration. It stands to reason, though, that the former second overall draft pick will not sell his future campaigns for anything less than full value.

Quick Hits: Arenado, Int’l Prospects, Jones, CarGo, Bauer, Storen, Marlins

By | at

Nolan Arenado’s extension talks with the Rockies could create a big impact around baseball, MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand writes in an exploration of both the short-term and long-term effects of an Arenado deal.  Most obviously, an extension would remove arguably the biggest name from the 2019-20 free agent class, which would be a boon to other stars who will be hitting the open market — in particular, Anthony Rendon would see his biggest competition in the third base market disappear.  (Of course, Rendon could also ink his own long-term deal to stay with the Nationals.)  More immediately, an Arenado extension could also set a new benchmark for Bryce Harper and Manny Machado, should Arenado and the Rockies come to an agreement before Harper or Machado land contracts this winter.

Some stray items from around baseball as we head into the new week…

  • Ten of the top names available in the 2019-20 international signing market are profiled by Baseball America’s Ben Badler, all of whom have teams already unofficially attached to their services even though the market doesn’t properly open until July 2.  Dominican outfielder Jasson Dominguez and Dominican shortstop Robert Puason are projected for the highest bonuses, each expected to land something around $5MM, with Dominguez linked to the Yankees and Puason connected to the Athletics.
  • While the Indians are still looking for outfield help, the team isn’t currently “aggressively pursuing” Adam Jones or Carlos Gonzalez, MLB.com’s Jon Paul Morosi reports.  Both veterans were only moderately productive in 2018, both with below-average offensive numbers (as per wRC+) and Jones with some of the worst defensive metrics (minus-18 Defensive Runs Saved, -14.8 UZR/150) of any center fielder in baseball.  That said, both players could still represent an upgrade for Cleveland’s shaky outfield, though it appears the Tribe is checking other options for now.
  • Trevor Bauer’s arbitration hearing took place on Friday, Cleveland.com’s Paul Hoynes reports, so details should soon emerge about the outcome.  There was a $2MM gap between Bauer and the Indians in exchanged figures, as Bauer’s camp is looking for a $13MM salary in 2019 and the team is aiming for an $11MM salary.  This will be the second arb hearing in as many years between the two sides, as Bauer defeated the Tribe in the hearing last winter to land his desired $6.525MM salary for the 2018 season.  Like Kluber, Bauer has also been a major figure in trade rumors this offseason.  He has one less year of team control than Kluber and a less-extensive track record, though Bauer is also almost five years younger than his rotation mate.
  • The Royals have interest in veteran righty Drew Storen, The Athletic’s Jayson Stark reports (Twitter link).  Storen didn’t pitch last season after undergoing Tommy John surgery in September 2017.  The 31-year-old was a key figure in the Nationals’ bullpen from 2010-15, though he suffered through a disastrous half-season stint with the Blue Jays in 2016 before righting the ship after a July trade to the Mariners.  Prior to his injury, Storen had a 4.45 ERA, 7.9 K/9, and 2.09 K/BB rate over 54 2/3 innings out of the Reds’ bullpen in 2017.  Storen won’t carry a heavy price tag as he makes his return from TJ surgery, making him a target for payroll-conscious Kansas City.
  • “Every trade, we’re trying to get back international money,” Marlins president of baseball operations Michael Hill told reporters, including Barry Jackson and Jordan McPherson of the Miami Herald.  It’s clear that the international market is a cornerstone of Miami’s rebuilding process, and the club has been successful in landing extra money for their int’l draft pool in recent trades with the Astros, Reds, Nationals, and (as part of the J.T. Realmuto trade package) Phillies.  These extra funds have already paid dividends, as the Marlins signed highly-touted Cuban brothers Victor Victor Mesa and Victor Mesa Jr. last October.

Royals Sign Homer Bailey To Minor League Deal

By | at

Per Rustin Dodd of The Athletic, the Royals have signed longtime Red Homer Bailey to a minor-league deal with an invite to Spring Training.

Bailey, 33 in May, was part of the pre-holiday Reds-Dodgers swap that sent Matt Kemp, Yasiel Puig, and Alex Wood to Cincinnati. There as a salary placeholder only, meant to offset, with the $28MM remaining on his deal, the sizable chunk still owed to Kemp, Bailey was immediately released by Los Angeles upon official approval of the deal by the Commissioner’s office.

After the 2013 season, in which Bailey parlayed a 3.49 ERA/3.31 FIP/3.34 xFIP (4.1 fWAR) campaign into a 6-year, $105MM extension, the former first-rounder has done little to nothing since. A solid, albeit injury-shortened, 2014 campaign was followed by a string of elbow troubles, kicked off by a 2015 Tommy John and culminating with a surgery, two years later, to remove bone spurs in the area.

Bailey’s 2018 was marred by right knee inflammation and a dangerous penchant for surrendering the longball – in 106 1/3 IP, Bailey allowed a staggering 23 bombs for Cincinnati, posting a 6.09 ERA/5.55 FIP mark that was only a slight decline from the year prior. Though his average fastball velocity has remained mostly steady, at 93.8 MPH, its efficacy has waned considerably: by FanGraphs’ measure, the pitch has been among the league’s worst in the category over the last two seasons, with the righty’s swinging strike rate plummeting to below 9%. Bailey, who once relied on the four-seamer over 72% of the time at its peak, has never boasted much in the way of swing-and-miss secondary stuff.

The Royals, who appear primed to enter the 2019 campaign with the underwhelming Brad Keller/Jakob Junis duo at the top of the rotation, may yet have a place for Homer at the rotation’s back end. Lingering gopher-ball issues could certainly be assuaged in the cavernous Kauffman Stadium dimensions, so perhaps the rebuilding Royals are a perfect place for Bailey to attempt a career resurrection.

Royals Sign Brad Boxberger To One-Year Contract

By | at

Thursday: Rustin Dodd of The Athletic tweets that Boxberger has passed his physical and officially signed with the Royals.

Wednesday: The Royals are “closing in” on a one-year contract with free-agent righty Brad Boxberger, according to MLB.com’s Jeffrey Flanagan (via Twitter). A client of the Boras Corporation, he’ll receive a $2.2MM guarantee along with $1MM in potential incentives, per Jon Heyman of MLB Network (Twitter links).

The 30-year-old Boxberger was non-tendered by the Diamondbacks in advance of his final season of arbitration eligibility. He was projected to earn at a $4.9MM rate, owing in no small part to the fact that he racked up 32 saves last year.

At times, Boxberger has been quite an effective late-inning reliever. In his 284 1/3 total MLB innings, he carries a 3.42 ERA with 11.6 K/9 and 4.6 BB/9.

As those numbers hint, opposing hitters have generally had a tough time making contact with Boxberger’s four-seam/change combo. On occasion, though, he has trouble inducing them to chase out of the zone and ends up doling out too many free passes. That’s what occurred in 2018, when he walked 32 in 53 1/3 innings and ended up with a 4.39 ERA on the year.

To be fair, Boxberger also racked up 12.0 K/9 in 2018, so he’s still capable of rather elite strikeout numbers. But his fastball velocity dropped below 92 mph for the first time in his career. With more time to react, opposing hitters only offered at 27.6% of the pitches that Boxberger left outside of the zone.

It’s not hard to imagine Boxberger competing for the closer’s job in Kansas City this spring. Wily Peralta took over that role last year, locking up saves in all of his 14 chances, but he doesn’t exactly have a longstanding history of success as a reliever and handed out 23 walks in his 34 1/3 innings on the season.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Checking In On The Worst Bullpens Of 2018

By | at

The importance of having a dominant bullpen was on display in 2018, when four of the majors’ five best relief units in terms of fWAR helped pitch their teams to the postseason. On the other hand, four of the league’s five worst relief corps (and nine of the game’s bottom 10) watched the playoffs from home. So now, with the spring fast approaching, where do last year’s bottom-feeding bullpens stand? As you’ll see below, at least one has made major improvements this winter, but the rest look iffier. While there’s still time for these teams to add help from a free-agent class that remains awash with veterans, this quintet’s bullpen-related heavy lifting may be all but complete for the offseason.

Royals (minus-2.2 fWAR; projected season-opening bullpen via Jason Martinez of Roster Resource ): Going by fWAR, the Royals’ 2018 bullpen was among the five worst of the past decade, though the unit “only” posted the majors’ second-highest ERA (5.09) a year ago. Those hideous numbers came in spite of the presence of Kelvin Herrera, who logged a near-spotless 1.05 ERA over 25 2/3 innings before the Royals traded the then-pending free agent to the Nationals in June. They also came thanks in large part to Brandon Maurer, who’s now a Pirate after pitching to a ghastly 7.76 ERA/6.58 FIP in 31 1/3 innings out of Kansas City’s bullpen last season.

Heading into the upcoming campaign, there’s a lot of work to be done to turn this Herrera-less group into a strength, but the Royals haven’t addressed it in any major way this offseason. However, considering they’re coming off a 58-win season and also won’t approach contention in 2019, it’s not surprising the Royals have shied away from major league free agency. They’ve instead taken less expensive routes to acquire potential bullpen pieces, having pulled in Michael Ynoa on a minor league deal, Sam McWilliams and Chris Ellis in the Rule 5 Draft and Conner Greene via waivers. Unfortunately, going by ZIPS projections, no one from that quartet looks like a promising bet to produce much in 2019. Likewise, ZIPS doesn’t have particularly high hopes for the majority of the Royals’ bullpen holdovers from 2018. The system does, however, like 23-year-old left-hander Richard Lovelady – who has turned in excellent minor league numbers but hasn’t yet reached the majors.

Marlins (minus-2.1 fWAR; projected season-opening bullpen): At 5.34, the Marlins’ relief corps managed the game’s worst ERA last year and the sport’s third-highest mark since 2009. The main culprits were Ben Meyer, Junichi Tazawa and Tyler Cloyd, who combined for 56 2/3 innings and each registered an ERA of at least 8.68. Tazawa and Cloyd are now out of the organization. Meyer, meanwhile, is still around, but he’s not even on Miami’s 40-man roster. But neither is righty Nick Wittgren, who led Marlins relievers in ERA (2.94) and FIP (3.13) in 33 2/3 frames last year. The Marlins made the odd choice to designate the 27-year-old Wittgren for assignment earlier this week to make room for the signing of infielder Neil Walker, who’s six years Wittgren’s senior and only under control for one season. Other notable contributors no longer in the mix include Kyle Barraclough (who nosedived in 2018 and was dealt to the Nationals in October), Brad Ziegler (Miami traded him to Arizona last July, and he has since retired) and Javy Guerra (now a Blue Jay after putting up a 5.55 ERA in 2018).

The best returning pieces in Miami’s bullpen look to be Drew Steckenrider and Adam Conley, who each registered solid seasons in 2018. Otherwise, it’s a largely unproven cast – one that hasn’t picked up any major league free agents and seems likely to once again record below-average numbers this year. As with the Royals, the Marlins are rebuilding, so they’ve explored alternative paths for help. Thus far, they’ve acquired Nick Anderson (via trade with the Twins), Tyler Stevens (via trade with the Angels), minor league free agents R.J. Alvarez and Brian Moran, Rule 5 selection Riley Ferrell, and intriguing waiver claim Julian Fernandez.

Mets (minus-0.6 fWAR; projected season-opening bullpen): Unlike the Royals and Marlins, the Mets are making a real effort to win in 2019. As a result, the bullpen has been a key area of focus for new Mets general manager Brodie Van Wagenen, who has swung a blockbuster trade to reel in arguably the best closer in baseball (ex-Mariner Edwin Diaz) and spent a combined $40MM on free agents Jeurys Familia and Justin Wilson this winter. Diaz, Familia and Wilson will join Seth Lugo, who was outstanding in 2018, and Robert Gsellman to give the Mets no fewer than five capable relievers.

Perhaps the Mets will also benefit from less heralded pickups in Luis Avilan and Arquimedes Caminero, whom they signed to minors deals, and Rule 5 pick Kyle Dowdy. Regardless, New York’s new cast of relievers looks a whole lot better than last year’s bullpen, which relied too much on the likes of Paul Sewald, Jerry Blevins, Jacob Rhame, Tim Peterson and Anthony Swarzak, among other ineffective options, en route to a 4.96 ERA. Sewald, Rhame and Peterson are still in the organization, albeit as depth pieces, while Blevins and Swarzak are now gone. All things considered, ZIPS expects the Mets’ revamped bullpen to end up as one of the majors’ best in 2019.

Indians (plus-0.4 fWAR; projected season-opening bullpen): Cleveland found its way to another division title in 2018 despite its weak bullpen, which limped to a 4.60 ERA as innings leaders Cody Allen, Dan Otero, Zach McAllister, Neil Ramirez and Andrew Miller scuffled. Allen, McAllister and Miller are now gone, leaving the Indians with a bullpen that, in spite of the great Brad Hand’s presence, still looks somewhat questionable. The club did well to re-up lefty Oliver Perez, whose 2018 renaissance earned him a guaranteed deal last month, though he’s the only major league free agent Cleveland has signed. The team also made a waiver claim for A.J. Cole, whose penchant for surrendering home runs led both the Nationals and Yankees to give up on him in the past eight months, and brought in veterans Justin Grimm and Brooks Pounders on minor league accords. Big league success has eluded Grimm and Pounders over the past couple years, however, so the Indians surely aren’t expecting significant contributions from either. Instead, their relief corps will count on returning Indians – potentially including flamethrower Danny Salazar, a starter from 2013-17 who missed all of last season because of shoulder problems. While Salazar could factor in at some point, it won’t be at the start of the season.

Nationals (plus-0.4 fWAR; projected season-opening bullpen): Washington, another prospective contender, has made a couple of interesting bullpen moves this offseason after last year’s underwhelming showing. In addition to trading for the hard-throwing Barraclough, who held his own from 2015-17, they inked fellow high-velocity righty Trevor Rosenthal to a $7MM guarantee in free agency. Rosenthal, 28, sat out all of last season while recovering from Tommy John surgery, but the former Cardinals closer was mostly tremendous out of their bullpen from 2012-17.

Should a healthy Rosenthal return to form, it would be an enormous boon for the Nationals, who saw a different ex-Cards reliever – Greg Holland – experience a rebirth in their uniform last season. But after logging a microscopic 0.84 ERA in 21 1/3 innings in D.C., Holland joined the Diamondbacks in free agency. The Holland-less Nats are now slated to rely mostly on elite but oft-injured closer Sean Doolittle, Barraclough, Rosenthal, Justin Miller, Koda Glover, Sammy Solis and Matt Grace, with Tanner Rainey (acquired from the Reds for Tanner Roark) and minor league signings Vidal Nuno and J.J. Hoover around as depth. All said, it’s a high-risk, high-reward bunch, given the injuries Doolittle and Rosenthal have dealt with and the up-and-down performances of Barraclough, Miller, Glover, Solis and Grace.

Dillon Gee Announces Retirement

By | at

Right-hander Dillon Gee took to Instagram on Monday evening to announce that after a professional career that spanned more than a decade and included parts of eight MLB seasons and a season in Japan, he is retiring from the game.

Gee, who’ll turn 33 in April, spent the 2018 season with the Chunichi Dragons of Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball but, prior to that, appeared in eight consecutive MLB seasons with the Mets, Royals, Rangers and Twins.

Gee’s most prominent role came with the Mets, his original organization, from the 2011-14 seasons, during which he was largely a fixture in the team’s rotation. Gee appeared in 101 games, 98 of them starts, across that four-year stretch and gave the Mets a fairly steady stream of reliable innings. While he was oft overshadowed by a series of vaunted arms who were emerging on the scene around that same time (e.g. Jacob deGrom, Matt Harvey, Zack Wheeler), Gee turned in 606 2/3 innings of 4.01 ERA ball in that four-year period.

Unfortunately, as is the case with so many pitchers, injuries took their toll on Gee following that run. Gee dealt with a blood clot that required surgery in 2012 and perhaps even more detrimentally underwent the dreaded thoracic outlet surgery following the 2016 season. He’d go on to return with better results than many TOS patients, pitching to a 3.47 ERA through 49 1/3 innings between the Rangers and Twins in 2017, though that also proved to be his last MLB action.

In all, Gee will retire with a career 51-48 record, a 4.09 ERA, 6.5 K/9, 2.8 BB/9 and 1.2 HR/9 over the life of 853 2/3 Major League innings. Though he’ll retire at a relatively young age, Gee still did quite well for himself in baseball, taking home north of $13MM in player salaries — a sum that most 21st-round selections can scarcely fathom.

Royals Extend Whit Merrifield

By and | at

The Royals have announced a four-year deal with second baseman/outfielder Whit Merrifield, as Jon Morosi of MLB.com first reported. The contract will guarantee him $16.25MM, Morosi tweets, and includes a club option for a fifth year

Merrifield earns salaries of $1MM, $5MM, $6.75MM, and $2.75MM, per MLB.com’s Jeffrey Flanagan has the breakdown (Twitter links). While that may seem like an odd order at first glance, the front-loaded structure benefits the player by moving up his earnings (notably, in this case, in advance of the expiration of the current collective bargaining agreement). The contract also comes with a $750K buyout on the club option, which can be exercised at $10.5MM. Rather than incentive pay, the deal includes $2MM in possible escalators in its final two guaranteed seasons, based upon plate appearances and awards.

Since Merrifield was already under control through 2022, his new deal will cover his final pre-arbitration season and his three arb-eligible years. Merrifield, a client of The L. Warner Companies, will also give up the rights to one prospective free-agent season via option. Of course, that’ll come after he has already reached his 34th birthday — a critical factor in understanding this agreement.

[RELATED: MLBTR Extension Tracker]

MLBTR profiled Merrifield as an extension candidate last March, explaining that he was a non-traditional, but nevertheless intriguing, potential target for a deal. The concept was rather simple, and remains largely the same now, though he has one more year of service and has further boosted his on-field value in the interim. For Merrifield, a deal offers a chance to ensure he locks in significant career earnings, cutting off the risks associated with his relatively advanced age — a factor that also significantly limits his future free agent upside. For the team, it’s an opportunity to achieve cost certainty and some savings for the arbitration seasons while also picking up control over an additional season of the two-time All-Star’s services.

In terms of the financial figures involved, there’s not a ton of cash at stake. For a player who remains a league-minimum earner even after hitting his 30th birthday, though, it’s a big chunk of change. Merrifield might have anticipated topping $16.25MM in his three seasons of arb to come, but not by a massive amount. Even reaching that level of pay would assume he’s at full health and continues at least to be worthy of regular playing time. Looking at a few recent second base comps, DJ LeMahieu earned exactly at that level ($16.3MM) over his three arb years. It’s certainly possible that Merrifield could have topped that with more campaigns like his 2018 effort. On the other hand, despite a higher first-year starting salary than LeMahieu, Joe Panik is now on track to earn a good bit less (he’s at $7.25MM through two seasons) after experiencing a setback season.

From the Royals’ perspective, the risk is limited and there are some clear benefits to this new pact. The broader state of the franchise is also an important consideration, though. Although the club is coming off of a 58-win season and figures to miss the playoffs for the third straight year in 2019, it has consistently turned away trade interest in Merrifield. General manager Dayton Moore declared prior to last summer’s non-waiver trade deadline that the Royals “need [Merrifield] in our city and on our team.” Thus, the late-blooming standout’s extension will serve as the organization’s latest vote of confidence not only in Merrifield, but in its broader slate of MLB and near-MLB talent.

Cashing in on the affordable club control over Merrifield through a trade surely had its appeal as well. Indications are that such an approach was at least explored at the 2018 trade deadline and perhaps in the offseason as well, though Moore made clear more recently to rival orgs that Merrifield was staying put. Of course, the pact may not preclude the Royals from trading him in the relatively near future. The Padres, for instance, awarded reliever Brad Hand a team-friendly extension last January and then traded him to the Indians in July for an offer they simply couldn’t pass up. Such a quick flip seems less likely in this case, considering the Royals’ faith in Merrifield and the team’s desire to avoid a full-blown rebuild. Generally, though, the contract shouldn’t hurt Merrifield’s marketability, even if it doesn’t vastly increase the value of his control rights.

So, what are the Royals getting for their money? A ninth-round pick of the K.C. org back in 2010, the 30-year-old Merrifield has likely emerged as the Royals’ premier player in the club’s post-Lorenzo Cain/Eric Hosmer/Mike Moustakas era. Merrifield debuted with a respectable showing in 2016, albeit over just half a season (81 games, 332 plate appearances), before truly breaking out the next year. Since 2017, the righty-hitting Merrifield has accrued 8.1 fWAR (including 5.2 in 2018, tying him for 15th among position players) and slashed .296/.347/.449 with 31 home runs and 79 stolen bases in 1,337 PAs.

Merrifield didn’t offer much power in 2018 (12 home runs, .134 ISO), but he still logged a terrific 120 wRC+ on the strength of a league-leading 192 hits, a .304 batting average and a .367 on-base percentage. When Merrifield did reach base, he terrorized opposing clubs, evidenced in part by his league-high 45 steals on 55 attempts. He was also eminently durable, appearing in 158 games, and effective in the field. Merrifield earned plus defensive marks in 900-plus innings at the keystone and upward of 300 frames in the outfield, including 241 in center.

The broad profile is of a versatile, multi-functional player who’d clearly be of interest to every single team in baseball. That’s a remarkable state of affairs given where Merrifield’s career stood entering the 2016 season, which he opened at the Triple-A level for a third-straight time, on the heels of a mediocre .265/.317/.364 showing for Omaha in the prior campaign. The intervening development is a credit both to the Royals and Merrifield, so it’s only appropriate that team and player each seem to have a path to benefit from this new contract — modest though it may be in its overall impact.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Making Sense Of The Whit Merrifield Extension

By | at

It’s difficult sometimes to make sense of the extensions we hear about. Why is it that player A is earning so much more or less than player B? Sometimes it’s obvious; sometimes it’s not. In some cases, there are relatively unique, personal circumstances that help explain it — some of which may not even really become known publicly. In every case, the actual course of negotiations requires both sides to estimate market value at a point at which there are necessarily still key factors that are unknown. There’s plenty of variability based upon varying motivations of the particular team and player involved. Still, we like to think that market value underpins baseball contracts. Every deal is susceptible of examination from a value perspective.

Given all of that, it seems worth taking a closer look at the recently reported deal between the Royals and second baseman/center fielder Whit Merrifield. Despite two-straight All-Star seasons and an upward trajectory in his performance, he’s promised just $16.25MM over four years — less than the qualifying offer rate ($17.9MM) for a single season. He can boost that by a bit via escalators, but will also give away an option year at a $10.5MM salary. Even in the extension context, it seems like a bargain for a high-quality player who has immense versatility and a well-rounded skillset. So, how to make sense of this?

It all starts with his experience and age. Merrifield is still shy of three years of MLB service yet just recently hit his 30th birthday. Since he didn’t have enough service time to reach arbitration early as a Super Two qualifier, he was still a full season away from commanding more than the league minimum salary, with the inherent risks and limitations of the arb process to look forward to thereafter. Moreover, the recent trends in the aging curve have not been kind to elder statesmen.

Add to that the fact that Merrifield’s most notable skills — hitting for average, speed on the bases, and good and versatile glovework — are not particularly well-compensated in the arbitration process. To be sure, they do show up indirectly in earnings since the process pays players who see a lot of playing time. But power stats (homers and ribbies) have tended to pay best over time than the harder-to-quantify areas of the game. Even stolen bases, the counting stat in which Merrifield shines, aren’t considered major drivers.

Whatever one thinks of Merrifield’s particular outlook, in terms of skills and health, the overall situation was one in which his anticipated future earnings were rather limited. In arbitration, barring a huge power burst, he’d have profiled as a strong but hardly record-shattering player. And his hypothetical free agency was laden with risk. How might he look as a player four years in the future? Nobody knows, but odds are he won’t be quite in his prime, since his pre-existing arbitration control extended through his age-33 season.

Let’s dig into the numbers to see why this is the case.

First, looking at the forthcoming arb years, we can check in on some second basemen and other comps to learn about what Merrifield might have taken home had he elected to go year to year. As I’ve noted previously, DJ LeMahieu represents an interesting overall comp since he just wrapped up his own arbitration run. After starting with a $3.0MM salary, and posting one big offensive season during his arb years, he finished with a $16.3MM total — a near-exact (and perhaps not coincidental) match for what Merrifield will receive.

When I first proposed that comp last March, Merrifield had yet to post his excellent 2018 season. As things stand, it’s not hard to see a path to more than $16.25MM. Just how high Merrifield could have climbed would obviously have been dependent upon what he does in the season to come, but we can guess at some parameters.

In terms of starting point, Merrifield ought to end up with a case for much greater earning power than LeMahieu (.284/.329/.370, 15 home runs, 157 RBI, 1,901 plate appearances) and Joe Panik (.282/.345/.408, 29 home runs, 170 RBI, 1,818 plate appearances), who earned $3.45MM in his first arb year. The Dodgers’ Chris Taylor rode a breakout 2017 and solid 2018 follow-up to a first-year arb salary of $3.5MM. He’s sitting on 39 home runs and 152 RBI with a .262/.331/.435 batting line through 1490 plate appearances. Even if Merrifield isn’t able to push or top twenty long balls in 2019, he’d surely be on track to carry a much more impressive overall statistical baseline than Taylor. He already has more plate appearances (1,669) and RBI (167) and nearly as many long balls (33), with a full season left to improve upon those tallies.

On the other hand, it’s tough to foresee anything like the 34-dinger outburst and second-place MVP finish that allowed Javier Baez to achieve a $5.2MM first-year arb salary. In all likelihood, depending upon how things play out in 2018, Merrifield likely would have commanded an arb-1 salary somewhere between the numbers we’ve thrown out for consideration — say, in the realm of $3.75MM to $4.75MM.

A few other mid-arb players also help illustrate how things could have proceeded in the event that Merrifield would have kept producing throughout his arb years, quite apart from the starting point. Shortstop Marcus Semien entered arb with sixty home runs and near-average total productivity through just under two thousand plate appearances. He earned $3.125MM in his first year after an injury-limited platform season and bumped up to $5.9MM in 2019 salary after launching 15 long balls in 703 plate appearances. Scooter Gennett jumped from a $2.525MM starting point to $5.7MM and $9.775MM salaries, driven by a total of fifty dingers and robust overall productivity in his final two platform campaigns.

With good fortune and some continued improvement, Merrifield could have tracked those or even greater raises. In the best-case, reasonably realistic scenario — fully healthy seasons at the top of his prior power levels (~20 home runs annually) — he might have started at a $4.5MM level and taken home successive $3.5MM raises. That would have resulted in $24MM of total arbitration salary.

Of course, it’s imaginable that Merrifield’s performance, and/or intervening health issues, could deflect him from that sort of path. Joe Panik had set the stage for bigger earnings than that (despite suffering a major ballpark-related disadvantage vis-a-vis LeMahieu), but stumbled after taking down $3.45MM in his arb1 season. He settled for just $3.8MM for the coming campaign and has no hope of approaching LeMahieu’s overall earning level.

Obviously, any kind of significant injury would sap any player’s ability to command a raise. Since Merrifield is not even in arbitration yet, an ill-timed and significant injury (say, in camp this spring) could have been extremely damaging to his earning power. Even if things went well for a time, Merrifield would always have been vulnerable to injuries or downturns in performance. That’s the same for any player, but the risks were amplified (and the future free agent benefits diminished) by his age.

It bears emphasis that the risks still apply before Merrifield would reach arbitration, since he’s still a full season away. Don’t believe me about the variance in arb earnings? Here’s an illustration, using some big names. Francisco Lindor nearly set a first-year-eligible record when he agreed to a $10.55MM contract earlier this month. He has been healthier and more productive of late than the fellow star shortstop of the same service class to whom he’s often compared — Carlos Correa, who edged Lindor in the 2015 Rookie of the Year vote. The Astros star’s salary remains unresolved, but will fall between $4.25MM and $5MM. Despite piling up plate appearances at the outset of his career, Correa is now over five hundred shy of Lindor due to some injuries. Unsurprisingly, he has also fallen behind his contemporary in home runs and holds only a slight edge in runs batted in. Correa still holds a clear edge in overall, park-adjusted offensive productivity (128 wRC+ vs. 120 wRC+), and is still considered an elite talent, but took a down year at the wrong time. Lindor’s playing time and power ramped up in his platform years, allowing him to more than double Correa’s first-year arb earning power.

If $24MM of arbitration earnings represented a best-case scenario, then the downside was more or less unlimited. Obviously, it’s hard to imagine that Merrifield would be cut out of significant future earnings entirely, barring a truly catastrophic injury. But he’s still a full season away. And as Panik shows, it’s not hard to craft a scenario where the earnings come in well short of their anticipated trajectory. The risks are clear.

If there’s something potentially objectionable about this arrangement from Merrifield’s perspective, perhaps it’s the fact that he coughed up a free agent season. That’s where the Royals could find some real upside, since they’ll have a chance to hang onto Merrifield for only a one-year commitment, when he could in theory be in position to take down quite a bit more in free agency.

That said, just what kind of open-market earning scenarios is Merrifield really sacrificing (or, at least pushing back by one year)? It seems rather unlikely, even from four years out, that he’ll enter the 2023 season thinking he left an enormous amount of money on the table.

Take this comparison. We can all agree that Merrifield has had an outstanding pair of seasons. He’s sitting on a .296/.347/.449 cumulative slash with 31 home runs and 79 steals, with his other contributions leading to a cumulative valuation of 9.3 rWAR / 8.1 fWAR. Compare that to Jed Lowrie, who once had his own breakout season at 29 years of age. He was injured in the interim but turned things on more recently. Lowrie just hit the open market at a slightly more advanced age than Merrifield would have, sporting a two-year platform of .272/.356/.448 hitting with 37 home runs and 8.8 rWAR / 8.5 fWAR.

Lowrie’s free agent take? Two years and $20MM. That salary level is reflected in the one option year that Merrifield gave the team in his new deal, which is valued at $10.5MM — again, as with the LeMahieu arb comp, perhaps not coincidentally.

Even in a highly optimistic scenario, such as the Ben Zobrist bidding war, there’s a limit to what this sort of player can earn in free agency. Zobrist was a hot commodity entering his age-35 season, having a long track record of excellent offensive production (well outstripping Merrifield’s overall record to this point) and defensive versatility. He secured a four-year, $56MM contract.

All things considered, this seems to be rather a fair arrangement for both sides. It’s a deal that lets the team avoid a runaway arbitration salary, and perhaps gain another season of a respected veteran at a bit of a discount rate. But it’s hardly the Jose Ramirez contract — another deal involving a two-plus service class infielder who was coming off of a breakout campaign. Ramirez, of course, was just 24 years of age and was just beginning an ascendancy that has continued to levels that were perhaps not anticipated at the time. His deal conveyed a pair of valuable team options — for his age-30 and 31 seasons. The sort of upside present there just isn’t available in the Merrifield contract.

For a 30-year-old, non-slugging infielder/outfielder who is still less than three campaigns into his MLB career, this extension lands in a sensible realm in terms of both length and total guarantee. Upon sifting through some other recent contracts, it’s not hard to see how the sides landed where they did.

AL Central Notes: Romero, Dozier, White Sox

By | at

Young Twins hurler Fernando Romero is one of several of the club’s pitchers who  could end up in a variety of roles when camp breaks, Phil Miller of the Star Tribune writes. While the rotation appears to be largely settled, perhaps it’s not out of the question that he could force his way into a job there — or, of course, take an opening if there’s an injury. Otherwise, Romero could certainly head back to Triple-A to continue developing and serve as depth. Most intriguingly, though, is the possibility that he’d stay with the MLB club as a reliever. While there’s an argument to be made that doing so now might make it less likely to capture his true upside, the Twins see several elements that make Romero a particularly interesting relief candidate. His prior injury history is one element; it also stands to reason that he’d thrive if allowed to focus on his two best pitches (fastball/slider) in shorter stints. The front office still seems to be contemplating the possibilities — closer competitor? multi-inning piggyback mate for Martin Perez? — with plans to wait and see how things look in Fort Myers.

A few more items from the AL Central …

  • All indications are that the Royals believe they can rebound quickly from a down 2018 season and the loss of their prior slate of core players. That seems optimistic from the outside, but we certainly don’t know all that the club does about its own players. First/third baseman Hunter Dozier is one of several players who seems to have a big opportunity ahead of him, as John Sleezer of the Kansas City Star writes. Though he took his lumps in the big leagues last year, Dozier says he felt a change after he settled in at the game’s highest level. “Once things started clicking,” he says, “I got my confidence back and then it became a lot of fun again.” Of course, while Dozier did boost his performance later in the year, his .247/.287/.453 post-All-Star break slash line does highlight the biggest question facing him from an offseason perspective — i.e., whether he’ll consistently get on base. In the field, the team observed big strides, but it remains to be seen whether Dozier can handle third at even a roughly league-average level. He also graded as a very poor baserunner. Clearly, there’s plenty of risk in this profile, but the Royals still seem to have faith — or, at least, feel they need to use the coming season to see what they have in Dozier and a few other as-yet-unestablished players.
  • As the White Sox continue to chase Manny Machado, Mark Lazerus of The Athletic (subscription link) looks at what that has meant for some of the team’s existing infielders. Yolmer Sanchez and Tim Anderson, could stand to see their own situations disrupted — whether by a loss of playing time, a change of position, or perhaps even a trade. Both Sanchez and Anderson say they are in favor of anything that moves the club closer to putting a championship contender on the field, though the latter certainly did not sound particularly inclined to hand over his slot at shortstop. “I’m not just going to give him shortstop,” says Anderson of a hypothetical acquisition of Machado. “I’m not just going to bow to him. That’ my position. … It’s mine until somebody takes it.” Just what the team’s plans would be if they do secure Machado’s services aren’t clear. Many have wondered whether a promise to play him at short would be part of the bargain, though GM Rick Hahn did suggest the star has indicated he’ll defer to the team’s positional preferences. In any event, the first order of business is to get Manny (or perhaps another star) to sign on — an ongoing priority that Hahn has made no secret of.
Show all

MLB Trade Rumors is not affiliated with Major League Baseball, MLB or MLB.com

Do not Sell or Share My Personal Information

hide arrows scroll to top