Yankees Rumors

Free Agent Stock Watch: Freddy Garcia

By Tim Dierkes | October 10, 2011 at 11:01am CDT

Among free agent starters with at least 100 innings pitched in 2011, C.J. Wilson, C.C. Sabathia, and Mark Buehrle unsurprisingly comprise the top three in ERA. Erik Bedard snags the fourth spot with a 3.62 ERA, the bigger surprise being the lefty's health rather than his performance. But just a hair behind Bedard in the free agent ERA rankings is a man who had to sign a minor league deal in late January: Freddy Garcia.

After the 2006 season Garcia had tallied 200+ innings in six consecutive years. Seeking a front-rotation arm, Phillies GM Pat Gillick acquired Garcia from the White Sox for Gavin Floyd and Gio Gonzalez at the Winter Meetings that year. Biceps soreness set in that spring for Garcia, who began the year on the DL. The big righty threw 56 innings for the '07 Phillies, at which point a serious shoulder injury was diagnosed. He had surgery in late August, and became a hot commodity as a free agent a year later. Garcia gave the '08 Tigers three September starts and planned to participate in the Venezuelan Winter League to further prove his health.

Garcia's shoulder flared up at that point, but he was healthy enough to land a $1.5MM base salary with $6.5MM in incentives from the Mets in January of '09. Mets GM Omar Minaya convinced Garcia to accept a minor league assignment to begin that season, but he was released by the end of April. It was a low point for Garcia, who signed back with the White Sox in June of that year on a minor league deal. Garcia closed out his season with nine starts for the Sox, pitching well enough to prompt the team to exercise a $1MM option in October.

In 2010 we saw a full season of the new Garcia. The results: a 4.64 ERA, 5.1 K/9, 2.6 BB/9, 1.32 HR/9, and 40.7% groundball rate in 157 innings. It wasn't enough to merit a big league deal, so the Yankees signed him to a minor league contract in January and he soon became the favorite to be the team's fourth starter. An August finger injury cost Garcia a few starts, but he ended up with similar numbers: a 5.9 K/9, 2.8 BB/9, 0.98 HR/9, and 36.4% groundball rate in 146 2/3 innings. If you count a minor league start and a postseason start, Garcia pitched 156 innings.

SIERA says Garcia's skills suggest an ERA around 4.28, rather than his actual 3.62 mark. That's still an improvement over 2010. Garcia slightly improved his strikeout rate, perhaps due to some changes in his mix of pitches. Garcia still profiles as a back-end starter, but his new level of performance should result in a guarantee at least matching the $3MM given to the likes of Brad Penny and Brandon Webb last winter.

Garcia appears to have earned over $4MM this year including incentives, and the Yankees must decide whether to offer arbitration if his fringe Type B status holds up. Perhaps the Yankees can convince him to decline arbitration, as otherwise the process could lead to a $5-6MM guarantee should the pitcher accept. Garcia has shown he can provide that amount of value, but despite the lower ERA this year the market perception would probably put him below a $5MM base salary as a free agent.

Photo courtesy of Icon SMI.

Quick Hits: Payrolls, Jay, Wilson, Epstein

By Zachary Links | October 9, 2011 at 1:30pm CDT

Here are some links to check out before the NLCS kicks off later this afternoon..

Michael Hunt of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel points out that the somewhat low payrolls of the remaining playoff teams are examples of the importance of drafting, scouting, and player development. The Tigers have the largest payroll (10th), while the Cardinals (11th), Rangers (13th), and Brewers (17th) round out the pack. It's also worth noting that the Diamondbacks rank 25th and the Rays were 29th.
The progress of center fielder Jon Jay allowed the Cardinals to trade Colby Rasmus at the deadline, GM John Mozeliak told Tom Timmermann of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. Edwin Jackson, Marc Rzepczynski, and Octavio Dotel have been key parts of the team's drive to the NLCS.
Some people think that C.J. Wilson has keen interest as a free agent in New York, tweets Jon Heyman of Sports Illustrated. He adds that the Yankees are probably the early favorite to sign him.
A Lakeview, Illinois resident is "99.9 percent sure" that he saw Red Sox GM Theo Epstein at a Starbucks in Lincoln Park, writes Paul Sullivan of the Chicago Tribune. Boston ownership has yet to acknowledge a report that the Cubs have asked for permission to talk to Epstein.
The Angels continued their front-office purge by not renewing the contract of player development director Abe Flores, a major league source told Mike DiGiovanna of the Los Angeles Times. Flores spent four seasons as the team's player development director after spending the previous six as the team's manager of baseball operations.
No matter what kind of career pitcher Pedro Strop has, the trade for left-hander Mike Gonzalez at the August deadline was worth it for the Rangers, writes Richard Durrett of ESPNDallas.com.

East Links: Marlins, Votto, Darvish, Cashman

By Zachary Links | October 8, 2011 at 5:51pm CDT

For the first time since 2005, there isn't a single team from either East division in the LCS round. That just means we're going to be hearing a lot more about them during the hot stove season. Here are some East Coast links…

Earlier today we heard that the Reds are expected to listen to offers for Joey Votto, and Joe Capozzi of The Palm Beach Post thinks the Marlins may kick the tires (Twitter link). The Fish are expected to make a splash before moving into their new stadium, and Votto would certainly qualify. Click here for Tim Dierkes' Offseason Outlook.
Although the Marlins are expected to be quite active this offseason, Juan C. Rodriguez of the Sun Sentinel (via Twitter) doesn't expect them to be in on Yu Darvish as the club isn't terribly active in Asia.
No surprise here, but Yankees GM Brian Cashman says that he still wants to return next season, writes Chad Jennings of The Journal News. Cashman's contract expires at the end of the month, and ESPN's Buster Olney hears (on Twitter) that talks about a new contract are going smoothly. A deal could be done by the end of next week.
Jennings looked back at the trade deadline and asked if the Yankees missed an opportunity. He says it's easy to say they did in hindsight, but he agrees when Cashman says "I don't see there was any missed opportunity I could have done differently."

Poll: Jorge Posada’s Future

By Mike Axisa | October 8, 2011 at 8:50am CDT

The Yankees season came to an end on Thursday night, and along with it may have come the end of Jorge Posada’s career. Posada’s four-year, $52.4MM contract expires after the season, and so far the only team he’s ever played for has shown little interest in re-signing him.

Although he hit a career worst .235/.315/.398 with 14 homers in 2011, Posada was the team’s best hitter in the postseason, when he picked up six hits and four walks in the five games against the Tigers (.429/.570/571). He was in the lineup all five games because Detroit used four right-handed starters, and the switch-hitter actually handled righties very well this year (.269/.348/.466). It was lefties that gave him trouble (.092/.169/.108).

Despite seeing his playing time dwindle throughout the summer, Posada said in August that he wants to keep playing beyond this year. The Yankees used him almost exclusively at DH this summer, in part because his defensive skills behind the plate have eroded, but also because of long-term concerns about head injuries. Posada did appear in 14 games at first base in 2011 (eleven starts).

As always, the free agent market is flooded with one-dimensional DH types. Posada’s pedigree is on par with anyone’s, but teams have been shying away from overpaying for name value in recent years. His market may not be as robust as he may like, and may even be non-existent.

Yankees Notes: Montero, Cashman, A-Rod, Sabathia

By Mark Polishuk | October 7, 2011 at 9:54pm CDT

You knew there would be a lot of Yankee news the day after the Bronx Bombers were eliminated from the postseason. Ben Nicholson-Smith already gave us one batch of items out of New York today, and now here are a few more tidbits as the Yanks look ahead to next year…

Jesus Montero may once again be trade bait this winter, writes John Harper of the New York Daily News. A group of scouts tells Harper that such pitchers as James Shields, Gio Gonzalez, Trevor Cahill, Mat Latos or Matt Cain could potentially be obtained in a deal featuring Montero. Harper also says "the early indications are the Yanks won't go to extremes to sign" C.J. Wilson as a free agent.
Brian Cashman says that starting pitching is "always, always, always" the club's offseason focus and this year will be no different, reports Marc Carig of the Star-Ledger. Cashman noted, however, that he doesn't expect next year's roster to be drastically different from the 2011 edition.
With Alex Rodriguez's weak postseason numbers fresh in everyone's mind, Adam Kilgore of the Washington Post and Brian Costa of the Wall Street Journal both express worry about the six years and $143MM remaining on A-Rod's contract.
Locking up C.C. Sabathia for more years and more millions could turn the ace into a Rodriguez-esque albatross on the Yankee payroll, warns Johnette Howard of ESPN New York.
Which of New York's two big free agents is a safer signing: Sabathia or Mets shortstop Jose Reyes? Ken Plutnicki of the New York Times asks the question.

Eric Chavez “Leaning Heavily Towards Retirement”

By Mark Polishuk | October 7, 2011 at 5:17pm CDT

Veteran third baseman Eric Chavez is considering retirement, according to Joel Sherman of the New York Post (Twitter link). Chavez, 33, is "leaning heavily towards" hanging up his cleats after 14 Major League seasons.

Chavez considered retirement in 2010 following three injury-plagued years and multiple surgeries on his back and shoulder, but signed a minor league deal with the Yankees in the offseason and ended up as a valuable bench piece for the AL East champions. Chavez hit .263/.320/.356 in 175 plate appearances, all but 23 of which were against right-handed pitching. He also made 33 starts at third base filling in for the injured Alex Rodriguez and showed some of the form (a +9.5 UZR/150) that earned him six straight Gold Gloves for the A's between 2001-06.

Should this be the end for Chavez, he will retire with a career line of .267/.342/.474, 232 home runs and career earnings of approximately $75.63MM.

Yankees Notes: Sabathia, Posada, Cashman

By Ben Nicholson-Smith | October 7, 2011 at 3:36pm CDT

The Yankees won 97 regular season games and two more in the playoffs, but their quest for a 28th World Championship fell short in the Bronx last night, as the Tigers beat them 3-2. Here are some links as the Yankees look ahead to another offseason…

Tyler Kepner of the New York Times says retaining C.C. Sabathia is the most pressing task of the Yankees' offseason. If they let him slip away, the Red Sox could have interest, as Kepner points out.
Jon Heyman of SI.com points out that the Yankees' biggest offseason need is once again starting pitching and runs through a number of other issues facing the Bronx Bombers this winter.
Sabathia can opt out of the four years remaining on his seven-year, $161MM contract after the season and the left-hander says he can't wrap his head around the decision yet, according to Bryan Hoch of MLB.com. However, Sabathia repeated that he loves it in New York.
Joel Sherman of the New York Post suspects that the Yankees will wait, instead of extending Robinson Cano and Curtis Granderson this offseason. Both players are eligible for free agency after 2013 (assuming New York exercises Cano's two options).
Alex Rodriguez told Sherman that the Yankees' season was a "major failure" though they finished with the best record in the American League. Rodriguez says he has a lot to prove and is looking forward to the challenge of "coming back with a vengeance."
As Mike Vorkunov of the Star-Ledger explains, Jorge Posada may have played his final game in Yankee pinstripes and the catcher turned DH is emotional about the possibility.
Brian Cashman reiterated that he wants to return to the Yankees, according to Marc Carig of the Star-Ledger. The GM's contract expires after the season, but the Yankees want him back, so a new deal appears likely.

AL East Links: Damon, MacPhail, Granderson

By Tim Dierkes | October 5, 2011 at 1:07pm CDT

Four of the AL East's teams are in offseason mode, while the Yankees prepare for the deciding ALDS game five against the Tigers tomorrow. Non-Red Sox links from the division:

B.J. Upton and Johnny Damon hope to return to the Rays next year, they told Marc Topkin of the St. Petersburg Times. Damon has a say as a free agent, while Upton is under the Rays' control as an arbitration eligible player.
Dan Connolly of the Baltimore Sun is starting to think Andy MacPhail could return as the Orioles' president in 2012.
The Yankees' metrics have Curtis Granderson as an above-average defensive outfielder, GM Brian Cashman told Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports.
Andrew Stoeten took a look at the Blue Jays' infield over at Drunk Jays Fans.

Quick Hits: Orioles, Sizemore, Sabathia, Rays

By Ben Nicholson-Smith | October 4, 2011 at 9:41pm CDT

On this date ten years ago, 42-year-old Tim Raines and his son, 22-year-old Tim Raines Jr., played outfield for the Orioles, becoming the second father-son duo to play in the same outfield (the Griffeys were the first). Here are some recent updates from around MLB…

Orioles president of baseball operations Andy MacPhail has not yet decided on his future role with Baltimore, according to MLB.com’s Brittany Ghiroli. It’s expected that MacPhail will step down and that the Orioles will find a replacement.
The Indians announced that Grady Sizemore underwent arthroscopic surgery on his right knee. The Indians say they expect the 29-year-old to be ready for spring training 2012, but it’s hard to be overly optimistic - Paul Hoynes of the Cleveland Plain Dealer points out that it’s Sizemore’s fifth surgery in three years. GM Chris Antonetti told Hoynes that he isn’t going to speculate on Sizemore’s $9MM option for 2012.
FanGraphs’ Dave Cameron doesn’t deny that some batters have advantages over some pitchers, but he doesn’t endorse relying on past batter/pitcher confrontations to predict future outcomes.
Dave Waldstein of the New York Times explains that there's a small chance C.C. Sabathia threw his last pitch for the Yankees last night, since the left-hander can opt out of his contract after the season. When MLBTR readers voted earlier today, they were divided on Sabathia's offseason earning power.
Rays owner Stuart Sternberg told Jim Caple of ESPN.com that he's frustrated that winning hasn't led to improved attendance in Tampa Bay. The Rays' attendance figures dropped by 15% this year and Sternberg says it's "untenable as a model going forward."

Poll: How Much Will C.C. Sabathia Get?

By Tim Dierkes | October 4, 2011 at 1:33pm CDT

The prevailing opinion is that Yankees ace C.C. Sabathia will opt out of the remaining four years and $92MM remaining on his contract, since he could easily get more money or years. Bill Madden of the New York Daily News wonders if this will result in the Yankees making another Alex Rodriguez-like overpay, committing at least $125MM over five years in total.

On the high end, though, Sabathia could attempt to top the guarantee he received three years ago: $161MM over seven years. Since that offseason, Sabathia has added three 230+ inning seasons to his resume, never posting an ERA over 3.37 in a season. He's still only 31 years old. Last winter Cliff Lee was 32 upon signing a five-year, $120MM deal with the Phillies. At the time, we heard that Lee turned down offers guaranteeing $148MM over seven years from the Yankees and $138MM over six years (including heavy deferrals) from the Rangers.

There's more money in the game than there was three years ago, and Sabathia's resume is at least as strong as Lee's was. Sabathia won't be able to match the 2.13 postseason ERA Lee carried into that offseason, but with a 3.47 mark in ten Yankees postseason starts C.C. hasn't been bad. Sabathia's postseason work outside of '09 has been subpar, but I'm not sure that will affect the free agent bidding. I see Sabathia's ceiling as Lee's $24MM salary over another seven-year term, which would be a new record for a pitcher at $168MM. As with Lee, that seventh year will probably be a sticking point for all involved teams. Let's hear what you think about the total dollars in today's poll.

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