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Central Notes: Fister, Pence, Cubs

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A few items of note regarding teams from MLB's Central divisions, as the Cards fall behind the Phils in Game 1 of the NLDS.

  • The Tigers preferred Doug Fister to Ubaldo Jimenez when they were shopping for a pitcher before the trade deadline, according to Danny Knobler of CBSSports.com. Whether that's true, we'll probably never know, but Fister certainly pitched better for Detroit than Jimenez did for Cleveland after the deadline. The Mariners were originally hesitant to move Fister, according to Knobler, but Tigers GM Dave Dombrowski was persistent in pursuing the right-hander.
  • The Reds tried to acquire Hunter Pence from the Astros, according to Hal McCoy of the Dayton Daily News, and GM Walt Jocketty has said he thought he made a better offer to Houston than the one it eventually accepted from the Phillies. McCoy reports that the Astros wanted Devin Mesoraco and adds that lefty Aroldis Chapman was not available.
  • The Cubs remain in limbo while waiting to hire a new general manager, writes Paul Sullivan of the Chicago Tribune, who notes that the fates of manager Mike Quade, his coaches, and several players are up in the air until someone takes the helm. The Cubs are unlikely to spend lavishly this offseason, according to Sullivan.

How The NL Playoff Starters Were Acquired

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Earlier this afternoon, we examined how the American League playoff teams assembled their postseason rotations. Now, let's hop over to the National League. Once again, in the event of series sweeps, postponements, or managerial changes of heart, this list could undergo some changes, but these are currently the probable starters for the NLDS.

Brewers

Yovani Gallardo: Selected in the 2004 draft (2nd round).
Zack Greinke: Acquired from the Royals in December 2010.
Shaun Marcum: Acquired from the Blue Jays in December 2010.
Randy Wolf: Signed for three years, $29.75MM in December 2009.

Last winter, the Brewers went all-in when they traded for Marcum and Greinke in the span of two weeks. So far, the decision has paid off, as the two former AL starters are lined up to pitch Games 2 and 3 of the Division Series against the Diamondbacks.

Diamondbacks

Ian Kennedy: Acquired from the Yankees in December 2009.
Daniel Hudson: Acquired from the White Sox in July 2010.
Josh Collmenter: Selected in the 2007 draft (15th round).
Joe Saunders: Acquired from the Angels in July 2010.

The D'Backs were practically in fire sale mode when they moved Dan Haren and Edwin Jackson last summer. Now, just one season later, two pitchers they acquired in those deals could start for the Snakes in the postseason. Interestingly, Arizona is the only NL playoff team whose rotation doesn't include a starter acquired from the Blue Jays.

Phillies

Roy Halladay: Acquired from the Blue Jays and extended for three years, $60MM in December 2009.
Cliff Lee: Signed for five years, $120MM in December 2010.
Cole Hamels: Selected in the 2002 draft (1st round, 17th overall).
Roy Oswalt: Acquired from Astros in July 2010.

The Phillies have made a handful of blockbuster moves over the last two years to ensure they have the starting pitching edge over the rest of the league heading into this postseason. But Hamels and fifth man Vance Worley (3.01 ERA in 131 2/3 IP) prove the Phils are skilled at developing their own starters too.

Cardinals

Kyle Lohse: Originally signed in March 2008. Extended for four years, $41MM in September 2008.
Chris Carpenter: Originally signed in December 2003. Extended for five years, $63MM in December 2006.
Jaime Garcia: Selected in the 2005 draft (22nd round).
Edwin Jackson: Acquired from the Blue Jays in July 2011.

When they traded Colby Rasmus for Jackson, Corey Patterson, and a pair of relievers this July, GM John Mozeliak and the Cardinals were widely panned, but it's hard to argue the move didn't help the team win the Wild Card race. Still, without Adam Wainwright, and unable to optimally line up their rotation, the Cards head into the NLDS as significant underdogs against the Phils' big four.

NL East Links: Rollins, Lowe, Heyward, Nats

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The National League portion of the playoffs don't start until tomorrow, but there's plenty of news coming out of Senior Circuit. Let's round up some links from the NL East…

  • "That's a tough call, a tough call" joked Jimmy Rollins of the Phillies when asked by Newsday's David Lennon if he would play in New York (Twitter link). Rollins will become a free agent after the season, like Mets shortstop Jose Reyes.
  • Braves GM Frank Wren told Dave O'Brien of The Atlanta Journal-Constitution that Derek Lowe is not projected to have a spot in the rotation next year (Twitter link). The bullpen or a trade are options. Lowe is owed $15MM next year, the final one on his contract.
  • Wren also said that Jason Heyward is not guaranteed to start in right field next year, but the GM told MLB.com's Mark Bowman that the Braves have never talked about trading the 22-year-old (Twitter link).
  • Mark Zuckerman of CSNWashington.com looked at five issues the Nationals must deal with this offseason, including settling on a manager.

In-Season Trades By The 2011 Playoff Teams

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It's hard to fake your way through 162 games, so most MLB playoff teams have earned the right to play in October. Once every few years, a team in a weak division slips into the playoffs with a mediocre record, but teams like the 2005 Padres and 2006 Cardinals are exceptions.

Now that this year's postseason lineup has been determined, we have the chance to look back at the trades the eight playoff teams made this year. Here's a summary of the in-season acquisitions that made an impact for one of MLB's 2011 playoff teams (linked team names go to our Transaction Tracker):

National League

American League

All four National League teams added valuable contributors in midsummer trades. The Rangers improved their bullpen with a pair of highly-coveted late-inning relievers and the Tigers acquired Doug Fister, who posted a 1.79 ERA with a 57K/5BB ratio in 70 1/3 innings down the stretch and is arguably the acquisition of the season.

After months of rumors about the Yankees' interest in starting pitching, GM Brian Cashman remained quiet on the trade front. The Wild Card Rays were also inactive despite constant rumors about B.J. Upton, James Shields, Johnny Damon and others. Tampa Bay's midseason acquisitions came from the minor leagues, where Desmond Jennings and Matt Moore began the season.

The Yankees and Rays are not averse to trading players – Cashman nearly acquired Cliff Lee last summer and Friedman makes major trades just about every year. Similarly, the Tigers and Brewers aren't this aggressive every year – they simply saw potential upgrades on the market. If there's a lesson here it's that the significance of the trade market varies wildly from year to year and from team to team. 

Rollins Seeks Five-Year Deal

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Jimmy Rollins finds the prospect of free agency "exciting," and the shortstop told SI's Jon Heyman, "Five [years] would be great.  Five would be the number."  Rollins, however, guesses the number of years will be the sticking point in upcoming negotiations.

Rollins, 33 in November, is hitting .271/.340/.403 with 16 home runs in 624 plate appearances this year.  His defense continues to be a positive.  A pair of executives gave Heyman contract estimates ranging from three years and at least $12MM per year to four years and $14MM annually.  I think five years is unrealistic even on the open market, but at least one team would commit to four.  Rollins' only real competition will be Jose Reyes, who figures to get at least five years and $18MM per season.

As I showed yesterday, it appears that the Phillies can afford Rollins without raising their payroll.

Arbitration Eligibles: Philadelphia Phillies

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The Phillies won their hundredth game last night, and with two games remaining against Atlanta they have a hand in determining who they'll play when the NLDS begins Saturday.  But for the moment, let's look ahead to their arbitration class as the next entry in our arbitration eligibles series.

There is a case for non-tendering Valdez and Orr, though neither player would earn even $1MM in 2012.  Francisco and Kendrick seem useful enough at $1.5MM and $3.3MM, respectively.

Pence and Hamels are the big-money cases.  Pence projects at $11MM, a $4.1MM raise after he won his arbitration hearing in February for $6.9MM.  Hamels signed a three-year extension in January of '09, but smartly left his final arbitration year open.  With a $9.5MM salary this year, he's in line for more than $14MM in 2012.  The Phillies plan to give Hamels a couple of relief innings tomorrow, with an eye on possibly getting him his 15th win.  Matt Swartz tweets that the gesture would cost them an extra $200K in arbitration if successful, according to our model.

Retaining Kendrick, Francisco, Pence, and Hamels could cost about $30MM for 2012.  Including Roy Oswalt's buyout, the Phillies project to have about $143MM in 2012 commitments before accounting for minimum salary players.  That's about $23MM less than this year's Opening Day payroll.

Matt Swartz contributed to this post.

Outrighted To Triple-A: Jason Rice, Juan Perez

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Let's keep track of the day's outright assignments right here, starting with a pair of moves courtesy of the International League transactions page…

  • The Indians have outrighted Jason Rice to Triple-A. The 25-year-old had been designated for assignment earlier this month, soon after Cleveland claimed him off waivers from the Athletics, who had acquired him from the Red Sox for Conor Jackson. Rice posted a 3.69 ERA, 9.4 K/9, 4.4 BB/9, and 0.6 HR/9 in 85 1/3 Triple-A innings this year.
  • The Phillies have outrighted Juan Perez to Triple-A. The 33-year-old lefty pitched to a 5.70 ERA in 36 1/3 Triple-A innings this season, and was generally ineffective in five appearances with the big league team. He was designated for assignment last weekend as part of a flurry of roster moves.

NL East Notes: Wang, Rollins, Nunez, Capuano

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The Nationals have won nine of their last eleven games, including a four-game sweep of the Phillies.  They'll try to keep their hot streak alive tonight against the struggling Braves, who hold just a two-game lead over the Cardinals in the NL wild card race.  Some news from the NL East….

  • The Nationals are in the "preliminary stages" of negotiations with Chien-Ming Wang about an extension, Wang's agent Alan Nero tells MLB.com's Bill Ladson (Twitter link).
  • C.C. Sabathia thinks Phillies shortstop Jimmy Rollins may sign with the Giants in the offseason, reports Jon Heyman from Sports Illustrated (Twitter link).  Sabathia and Rollins are long-time friends and, as Heyman notes, Rollins was the first to predict that Sabathia would sign with the Yankees in the 2008-09 offseason.
  • The Marlins may have been unable to deal Leo Nunez at the trade deadline due to the ongoing saga of Nunez's true identity, reports Clark Spencer of the Miami Herald.  Within that same link, Dan LeBatard is reporting that Major League Baseball (who must've been aware of Nunez's issues, as the Marlins were) nixed a deal involving Nunez last July.
  • Chris Capuano is interested in returning to the Mets next year but said he prefers to be a starting pitcher whenever he goes, reports Andy Martino of the New York Daily News.
  • Jose Reyes likes playing for the Mets but isn't sure how his free agency will play out this winter, reports Adam Rubin of ESPN New York.  "This is the only team that I played [for] so far in my whole career," Reyes said. "I feel comfortable here. I feel good with the ownership. I feel like we are family and stuff like that. At the same time, this is a business. And to be honest with you, I don't know what's going to happen. 
  • Davey Johnson wants the Nationals to add some outfield depth this winter, writes MLB.com's Bill Ladson.
  • Tyler Kepner of the New York Times explores the possibility that southpaw Mike Zagurski (dealt from the Phillies to the Diamondbacks earlier today) could end up returning to Philadelphia as the player to be named later in the deal, a rare "traded for himself" move.

Free Agent Stock Watch: Roy Oswalt

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Late Thursday night, Phillies starter Roy Oswalt quietly joined the ranks of (likely) free agents. The right-hander is no longer considering retirement after this season, but the Phillies probably won't exercise their end of his $16MM mutual option for 2012, according to Todd Zolecki of MLB.com, although they might be interested in bringing back Oswalt on a more affordable deal. To decline the option, the Phillies will have to pay Oswalt a $2MM buyout.

Oswalt, who turned 34 in August, joined the Phillies last season after ten years in Houston, where he was the staff ace. With the Phils, he's the fourth starter in an historically deep rotation, behind Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee and Cole Hamels. No shame in being the fourth-chair violin in that orchestra.

Though he's 34 and has struggled with a back injury in 2011, Oswalt has been mostly sturdy throughout his career, making fewer than 30 starts only twice (2003 and '11) in ten full seasons. Along with that dependability, Oswalt has posted strong numbers: 3.22 ERA (3.35 FIP), 7.35 K/9, 2.09 BB/9 and a 47% groundball rate. Those figures earned him a five-year, $73MM extension with the Astros in 2006.

Since Oswalt makes $16MM this season, and the Phils won't be exercising their end of his $16MM mutual option, they obviously won't offer him arbitration. That will make him more attractive to suitors on the free-agent market, as any team that signs him won't have to forfeit compensatory draft picks (as MLBTR's latest Elias Rankings show, Oswalt projects as a Type A free agent).

As of now, it's tough to say what kind of contract Oswalt will be seeking this offseason, because we don't know how long he'll want to pitch. He has flirted with retirement before, so he might prefer to work on a year-to-year basis, not unlike the Dodgers' Hiroki Kuroda. In that case, there would be a lot of suitors for Oswalt's services, and he could probably sign with a contender for a salary in the neighborhood of Kuroda's $12MM. If Oswalt is happy with the Phils and wants to return to the stacked rotation for a year, he'd likely have to take a salary below market value — maybe $8MM or so — as the Phils are already on the hook for that $2MM buyout, not to mention their other financial commitments and likely pursuits of re-signing Jimmy Rollins and Ryan Madson, and extending Hamels.

If Oswalt wants a multiyear deal, there are two recent cases that make for interesting comparisons. Earlier this month, the Cardinals extended Chris Carpenter for two years and $21MM. I think Oswalt would have plenty of bidders at that price. Here's another: Two years ago, the Braves extended Tim Hudson, then only 16 months removed from Tommy John surgery, for three years and $28MM. Oswalt's eventual deal might compare favorably to either of those, since he will be negotiating with many teams rather than one, but they should provide a rough basis.

East Notes: Collins, Epstein, Phillies

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Yankees GM Brian Cashman's remarks regarding his feigned pursuit of Carl Crawford are creating some buzz today, unsurprisingly. Here are some other items of note out of the east …

  • The Mets will decide whether they'll exercise manager Terry Collins' 2013 option within the next 10 days, a source tells Andy Martino of the New York Daily News. The club will also have to decide on whether to bring back all of Collins' coaches, whose contracts are expiring, except for hitting coach Dave Hudgens.
  • Red Sox GM Theo Epstein told ESPNBoston.com that there's no "disconnect" between him and manager Terry Francona. The latter's job security has been a hot topic on talk radio shows and the like this week, what with the Red Sox owning just a two-game lead over the Rays in both the AL East and the AL Wild Card entering Friday's action. Boston, of course, appeared to be a lock for the postseason only a month ago.
  • The Phillies will lead the Major Leagues in attendance in 2011, writes Jim Salisbury of CSNPhilly.com. With the second highest payroll in the big leagues at $175MM, the great turnout will certainly help pay some of the bills. The Phils sold out their 204th consecutive home game on Thursday, a stretch that dates back to 2009, according to Salisbury.
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