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Padres Sign Woo-Suk Go To Two-Year Deal

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The Padres announced the signing of reliever Woo-Suk Go to a two-year contract with a mutual option covering the 2026 season. He is reportedly guaranteed $4.5MM. Go will make $1.75MM this year and $2.25MM in 2025. There’s a $500K buyout on the option, which is valued at $3MM. San Diego will also owe a $900K posting fee to the LG Twins of the Korea Baseball Organization. The Friars still have five vacancies on the 40-man roster.

The contract also contains a number of performance bonuses. Go would receive an additional $100K if he reaches 70 appearances next season. He can unlock up to $400K in bonuses for 2025 as well: $100K apiece at 40, 45, 55 and 60 games. His 2025 salary could jump by as much as $500K if he reaches 45 games finished next season. Unless the mutual option is exercised, Go will return to free agency two years from now. While he’ll still be well shy of six years of MLB service, most major league deals for players from a foreign professional league include a clause that sends the player back to free agency once the contract expires.

Go, a 25-year-old righty, has pitched parts of seven seasons in the KBO. He has worked as a pure reliever throughout that time, operating as the LG Twins closer for the past five years. After struggling during his first two seasons as a teenager, Go has been a solid bullpen arm for a half-decade.

He has rattled off four seasons with a sub-4.00 ERA, including three campaigns allowing fewer than 2.20 earned runs per nine. Go surpassed 30 saves in each of 2019, ’21 and ’22. He has fanned more than 26% of batters faced in each of the last five years, topping the 30% mark in the last two seasons.

While Go has consistently shown the ability to miss bats, he hasn’t always been around the strike zone. He has walked more than 10% of opposing hitters in four of his seven seasons. Go issued free passes to an alarming 11.6% of batters faced last year, contributing to a 3.68 ERA that made for more of a solid than exceptional platform showing.

Public scouting reports have generally pegged Go as a likely middle reliever at the big league level. Eric Longenhagen of FanGraphs writes that Go leans primarily on a mid-90s fastball and low-90s cutter while occasionally mixing in a curveball. That’s an intriguing arsenal, but the fringy control could make him a risk in higher-leverage spots.

The Twins made Go available via the posting system on December 4. That opened a 30-day period for him to sign with a major league club. (Unlike Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball, whose posting windows last 45 days, there’s a 30-day opening for South Korean players). That was concluding this afternoon. If Go hadn’t signed with an MLB team by 4:00 pm CST, he’d have remained with the Twins for another season.

San Diego has been one of the sport’s most aggressive teams in targeting players making the jump from Asian professional leagues. They recently signed lefty Yuki Matsui to a five-year, $28MM pact as he came over from NPB. San Diego has added Ha-Seong Kim from the KBO and the likes of Nick Martinez and Robert Suarez from NPB in previous offseasons.

With Josh Hader, Martinez and Luis García hitting free agency, the Padres have Matsui and Suarez as their top two leverage relievers. Go joins that mix alongside righty Enyel De Los Santos, whom San Diego acquired from the Guardians in exchange for Scott Barlow this winter. Go is reportedly in the mix for the ninth inning.

Under the MLB-KBO posting agreement, the release fee is proportional to the size of the contract. For players guaranteed $25MM or less, it is calculated as 20% of the contract value. The $900K fee brings San Diego’s total outlay for Go to $5.4MM.

The deal’s $2.25MM average annual value brings San Diego’s projected luxury tax number to roughly $212MM, according to Roster Resource. That’s $25MM shy of next year’s lowest threshold. Their actual payroll sits in the $156MM range. Even in an offseason defined by budgetary limitations, adding Go shouldn’t have much of an impact on San Diego’s ability to continue bolstering the roster. The Padres still need one or two outfield acquisitions and would benefit from a back-of-the-rotation starter.

Jon Heyman of the New York Post first reported that Go and the Padres were nearing an agreement. The Post’s Joel Sherman reported the sides had agreed to a two-year, $4.5MM guarantee. Dennis Lin of The Athletic was first to report the 2026 mutual option and the specific salary breakdown. The Associated Press reported the bonuses and escalators.

Padres Announce 2024 Coaching Staff, Do Not Plan To Hire Bench Coach

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The Padres announced the coaching staff that will be working under manager Mike Shildt in 2024. Much of the staff includes coaches returning from last year’s club or previously-reported hires. In terms of new information from today’s announcement, Tim Leiper has been hired to serve as third base coach, as well as infield and base running instructor. Mike McCoy and Pat O’Sullivan were promoted from within the organization to serve as assistant hitting coaches in the major leagues. Ryan Barba has also been promoted from within, in his case taking on the title of major league field coordinator.

Notably absent from the announcement was a bench coach and Jeff Sanders of the San Diego Union-Tribune reports that the club does not plan to have a traditional bench coach this year. Instead, the bench coach duties will be divided between pitching coach Ruben Niebla, catching coach and game strategy assistant Brian Esposito, as well as Barba and McCoy.

Leiper, 57, was a first base coach with the Blue Jays from 2014 to 2018 but more recently has been working with the Giants in a player development role. He has also coached for Canadian teams in the Olympics and in the World Baseball Classic.

McCoy, 42, played in 170 major league games from 2009 to 2012, suiting up for the Rockies and Blue Jays. He’s been working as a coach in the Padres’ minor league system for the past eight years. O’Sullivan, 46, spent several years in the minors as a player and has also been coaching in the minors with the Padres for the past six years. Barba, 39, also played in the minor leagues before transitioning to coaching, having worked in the minors with the Padres for the past two years. All three will now get bumped up to the big league staff.

Woo Suk Go Nearing Deal With Padres

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Jan 3: The deal between the Padres and Go is a two-year guarantee worth “more than 9MM,” according to Jiheon Pae of Spochoo.com (Korean language link). Pae adds that the deal includes a club option. Jeeho Yoo of Yonhap News relayed last night an announcement from the LG Twins that the club has given Go approval to sign with the Padres. At the time of Go’s posting, the Twins reportedly allowed Go to seek MLB opportunities with the condition that they could reverse their decision if the offers Go received from MLB clubs- and, subsequently, the posting fee the club would receive- were too low.

Jan 2: South Korean reliever Woo Suk Go is nearing an agreement with the Padres, reports Jon Heyman of the New York Post (X link). It appears to be a major league contract, as Heyman suggests Go could serve as San Diego’s closer next season.

Go, a 25-year-old righty, has pitched parts of seven seasons in the Korea Baseball Organization. He has worked as a pure reliever throughout that time, operating as the closer for the LG Twins for the past five years. After struggling during his first two seasons as a teenager, Go has been a solid bullpen arm for a half-decade.

He has rattled off four seasons with a sub-4.00 ERA, including three campaigns allowing fewer than 2.20 earned runs per nine. Go surpassed 30 saves in each of 2019, ’21 and ’22. He has fanned more than 26% of batters faced in each of the last five years, topping the 30% mark in the last two seasons.

While Go has consistently shown the ability to miss bats, he hasn’t always been around the strike zone. He has walked more than 10% of opposing hitters in four of his seven seasons. Go issued free passes to an alarming 11.6% of batters faced last year, contributing to a 3.68 ERA that made for more of a solid than exceptional platform showing.

Public scouting reports have generally pegged Go as a likely middle reliever at the big league level. Eric Longenhagen of FanGraphs writes that Go leans primarily on a mid-90s fastball and low-90s cutter while occasionally mixing in a curveball. That’s an intriguing arsenal, but the fringy control could make him a risk in higher-leverage spots.

San Diego has been one of the sport’s most aggressive teams in targeting players making the jump from Asian professional leagues. They recently signed lefty Yuki Matsui to a five-year, $28MM pact as he came over from Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball. It seems unlikely Go would match that kind of deal, but the Friars are clearly intrigued by his youth and swing-and-miss potential.

With Josh Hader, Nick Martinez and Luis García hitting free agency, the Padres have Matsui and Robert Suarez (another former NPB signee) as their top two leverage relievers. Go, assuming a contract is finalized, could join that mix alongside righty Enyel De Los Santos — whom San Diego acquired from the Guardians in exchange for Scott Barlow this winter.

In addition to what they’d pay Go, San Diego would owe a release fee to the LG Twins under the MLB/KBO posting system. If the total guarantee is less than $25MM, the posting fee would be 20% of the contract’s value. If the guarantee topped $25MM, they’d owe 17.5% of the next $25MM. They’d owe 15% on any spending beyond $50MM, but it’s highly unlikely that Go received a deal approaching that level.

Details On Yuki Matsui’s Contract With Padres

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The Padres finalized a five-year deal with NPB reliever Yuki Matsui at the end of December. ESPN’s Jeff Passan reported that the $28MM pact contained a pair of opt-out chances, as well as a conditional option for the 2028 campaign depending on Matsui’s elbow health.

A report from The Associated Press lays out the specifics of the 28-year-old’s deal. Matsui’s ability to opt out after the 2026 season is conditional on avoiding a Tommy John surgery or any other elbow injury that requires an injured list stint of 130+ days between 2024-25. The salary breaks down as follows:

  • $3.25MM in 2024
  • $5.5MM in 2025
  • $5.75MM in 2026
  • $6.5MM in 2027
  • $7MM in 2028

If Matsui suffers a significant elbow injury, the 2028 salary becomes a conditional team/player option. He also receives full no-trade protection and can bump the value of future years’ payments by up to $1.4MM annually based on the number of games he finishes.

The first opt-out decision comes with two years and $13.5MM in guarantees remaining. Passan reported that Matsui would also have the right to opt out after the ’27 campaign. If he plays out the full contract, he’ll be a free agent after 2028 despite not reaching six years of MLB service, according to the AP. That’s a common provision for players who sign guaranteed deals after a stint in the KBO or NPB.

Latest On Clubs’ Interest In Yariel Rodriguez

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December 28: ESPN’s Enrique Rojas reports (on X) that Boston, Pittsburgh and Toronto have all shown interest in Rodriguez as a starter. Cincinnati, San Diego and the Yankees prefer the right-hander in a relief role. Rojas indicates that Rodriguez prefers to start, although there’s no indication he has officially ruled out any teams targeting him in a bullpen capacity.

December 27: The Reds and Red Sox are among the teams still showing interest in free agent right-hander Yariel Rodriguez, tweets Francys Romero. Last week, Romero reported that the Pirates, Astros, Blue Jays and Yankees were also in the running.

Cincinnati hasn’t been frequently tied to Rodriguez throughout the offseason. The Reds were among roughly half the league that sent scouts to evaluate the righty’s throwing session in the Dominican Republic on October 10, a few days after he’d been granted his release from the NPB’s Chunichi Dragons. There hasn’t been much to connect the sides since that point, although it’s not especially surprising that Cincinnati is involved on one of free agency’s younger pitchers.

The Reds have made two major league additions to the pitching staff. Swingman Nick Martinez signed for two years and $26MM, while reliever Emilio Pagán inked a two-year, $16MM deal. President of baseball operations Nick Krall indicated that Martinez will compete for a rotation spot but stopped short of calling him a lock for the season-opening five.

Rodriguez falls into a similar category, as there’s some question about whether he’ll stick in an MLB rotation. The 26-year-old worked out of the bullpen with the Dragons in his final NPB season in 2022. He turned in a stellar 1.15 ERA while striking out 27.5% of opponents over 54 2/3 innings. His 8.3% walk percentage was right in line with the MLB average.

Despite the strong results in relief, it’s likely whichever MLB team signs Rodriguez will give him an opportunity to compete for a rotation spot. He had started in Cuba’s top league before his stint in Japan, and he worked out of the rotation for the Cuban national team during last spring’s World Baseball Classic. Clubs that feel Rodriguez has mid-rotation upside could entertain a noteworthy contract. One evaluator with whom MLBTR spoke before the beginning of the offseason suggested Rodriguez could land a guarantee between $30MM and $50MM.

The Reds have a projected rotation of Andrew Abbott, Hunter Greene, Nick Lodolo and Graham Ashcraft. Left-hander Brandon Williamson and Martinez stand as the top competitors for the #5 job. Aside from Martinez, it’s a generally young group. They’ve all shown promise at the MLB level, but each of Greene, Lodolo and Ashcraft battled injuries last season. None of Abbott, Williamson nor Martinez have ever pitched a full season out of an MLB rotation. That’s also true of Rodriguez, of course, but the Reds could view his youth and ability to work multiple innings as a strong fit as they move firmly into win-now mode after their 2022 retool.

Boston has been linked to Rodriguez more frequently throughout the winter. The 6’1″ hurler held a workout in front of Sox’s and Padres’ evaluators last month. Boston is casting a wide net on the rotation front. While they’ve been tied to top-of-the-market hurlers like Jordan Montgomery and Blake Snell, the Boston Globe’s Alex Speier recently wrote they appeared more focused on the middle tiers of the free agent class.

This Date In Transaction History: Blake Snell Trade

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Today marks three years since the blockbuster that sent a former (and future) Cy Young winner across leagues. The Rays dealt Blake Snell to the Padres in the late evening of December 27, 2020, bringing back a four-player prospect package. Luis Patiño headlined the return, which also included Blake Hunt, former top prospect Francisco Mejía and 2020 third-round draftee Cole Wilcox.

The deal came as something of a surprise, as the Rays weren’t under huge financial pressure to move Snell. Despite the controversy surrounding Kevin Cash’s decision to lift Snell in Game 6 of that year’s Fall Classic, Tampa Bay could’ve held the southpaw into the following season. Snell was under contract for respective salaries of $10.5MM, $12.5MM and $16MM covering the 2021-23 campaigns.

Nevertheless, the Tampa Bay front office felt the prospect return was too strong to pass up. Patiño was viewed as one of the sport’s most talented pitching prospects despite struggling in a brief MLB debut that season. Hunt was a borderline Top 100 minor leaguer at the time. Mejía’s stock had fallen from its peak as he struggled against big league pitching, but he was only entering his age-25 season and had less than three years of MLB service. Wilcox was viewed by many evaluators as a first-round talent that year, only dropping to the third because of a lofty bonus demand.

The deal didn’t pan out at all as the Rays had envisioned. While Snell has had a volatile career, he recaptured the ace-caliber upside he’d shown in Tampa Bay. After turning in a 4.20 ERA over 27 starts during his first year with the Friars, he rebounded to post a 3.38 mark in 2022. The cumulative 3.79 ERA he managed across 256 2/3 innings was solid, although it didn’t hint at the Cy Young level he’d reach in 2023.

Snell didn’t start the ’23 campaign well. He owned a 5.48 ERA with a strikeout rate just under 24% through the first month. After a slight uptick in strikeouts and a 3.82 mark in May, Snell kicked off a four-month stretch as the most dominant pitcher on the planet. From June 1 on, he struck out 35% of batters faced and allowed 1.23 earned runs per nine. His 1.54 ERA after the All-Star Break is the 12th-lowest second half rate since 2000 (minimum 75 innings).

The dominating finish led Snell to cruise to a second career Cy Young. He was a near-unanimous choice as the NL’s top pitcher after posting an MLB-best 2.25 ERA through 180 innings. Snell hit free agency and seems unlikely to return to a San Diego organization that has cut spending. Assuming he signs elsewhere in the coming weeks, he concludes his time as a Padre with a 3.15 ERA while striking out 31.5% of opponents in 436 2/3 frames.

As a team, San Diego didn’t have the kind of success they envisioned. They reached the postseason just once in the last three years. A second-half collapse cost them a playoff berth in 2021. They rebounded with a trip to the NLCS in ’22 but finished 82-80 last season. A strong final couple weeks ostensibly brought them within a couple games of a playoff spot, but the 2023 club was more or less finished by the end of August.

One can debate whether the Friars should’ve more aggressively marketed Snell, Juan Soto and Josh Hader at the deadline. A fringe contender at the time, they elected to add around the margins rather than move their top impending free agents or Soto (whose arbitration price tag they knew was rising). As a team that exceeded the luxury tax threshold, they’ll only receive picks after the fourth round as compensation for losing Snell and Hader, each of whom rejected a qualifying offer.

San Diego’s subsequent decisions don’t negate how well they fared in the Snell trade, however. That turned out to be one of the more lopsided deals of the past few seasons. No one in the return found much success in Tampa Bay. Three of the four are out of the organization entirely.

Patiño saw MLB action in each season from 2021-23. He logged 101 1/3 innings as a Ray, turning in a 5.24 ERA. Patiño’s control hasn’t developed as expected and he has struggled with home runs throughout his MLB tenure. The Rays moved on at the deadline, sending him to the White Sox for cash. He ended up back in San Diego last week; the Friars claimed him when Chicago put him on waivers. He’s out of options, so he’ll either need to open the season on the MLB roster or be made available to other teams yet again.

Neither of the other prospects involved have reached the majors. Hunt has slowly climbed the minor league ladder, hitting at a roughly league average level at each stop. The Rays didn’t want to carry him on the 40-man roster, yet Hunt was eligible for minor league free agency after this season. Tampa Bay dealt him to the Mariners (who did add him to the 40-man) for 2022 eighth-round pick Tatem Levins last month. Wilcox remains in the organization but underwent Tommy John surgery late in the ’21 season. He returned to post a 5.23 ERA in 25 starts at Double-A this year. He went unselected in the Rule 5 draft a few weeks ago.

Mejía, arguably the fourth piece of the return at the time, had the most success for Tampa Bay. The switch-hitting catcher had a .260/.322/.414 batting line in 84 games in 2021. His offense cratered over the last two years, though, as he hit .237/.262/.387 in 459 plate appearances over that stretch. The Rays designated him for assignment in August. He reached free agency at year’s end and signed a minor league deal with the Angels last week.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Padres Sign Yuki Matsui To Five-Year Deal

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The Padres have signed left-hander Yuki Matsui to a five-year contract, the club has announced. Matsui and the Padres were reportedly close to a deal earlier this week. ESPN’s Jeff Passan reports that Matsui will receive $28MM guaranteed over the life of the contract, which includes opt-outs after the third and fourth seasons of the deal as well as an injury clause that can convert the fifth year of the contract into a club option worth $7MM if Matsui suffers a “serious” elbow injury during the life of the contract.

The deal represents San Diego’s first significant buy-side move of the offseason, and their first major move since trading star slugger Juan Soto and center fielder Trent Grisham to the Yankees earlier this month for a five-player package headlined by right-handers Michael King and Drew Thorpe. It’s a somewhat unusual deal for a reliever; right-hander Robert Suarez’s agreement with the Padres and the record-breaking deal between star closer Edwin Diaz and the Mets, both of which were signed last offseason, are the only contracts for free agent relievers to surpass five years.

Matsui landed at #43 on MLBTR’s annual Top 50 MLB free agents list, where we projected him for a two-year, $16MM deal.  Matsui nearly doubled that guarantee, though the average annual value of his deal comes in at just $5.6MM, well below the $8MM MLBTR projected him for over a two-year apct. Despite the unusual length of the deal, the gamble is an understandable one for the Padres to make. The deal covers Matsui’s age-28 through -32 seasons, with his first opt-out opportunity coming after Matsui’s age-30 campaign in 2026. The lowered AAV of the deal was surely particularly appealing to the Padres, who are reportedly hoping to stay under the luxury tax in 2024. Given those financial constraints, Matsui’s deal represents a more cost-effective alternative to reuniting with relief ace Josh Hader, who MLBTR projected for a whopping six-year, $110MM guarantee on the heels of a dominant season as San Diego’s closer.

While Matsui can’t be reasonably expected to match Hader’s incredible production last season (1.28 ERA and 33 saves in 56 1/3 innings), the lefty has put together an excellent career overseas in his own right. Matsui’s spent the past ten seasons pitching for Nippon Professional Baseball’s Tohuku Rakuten Golden Eagles. During his NPB career, Matsui has racked up 236 saves in 501 appearances while earning five All Star nods. In 659 2/3 innings of work during his career, Matsui sports a sterling 2.40 ERA with a 31.9% strikeout rate. He’s been even more impressive over the past three seasons, a combined 1.42 ERA and a 36.4% strikeout rate across 152 innings during that time.

Matsui was a frequent subject of MLBTR’s NPB Players to Watch series throughout the 2023 season, where Dai Takegami Podziewski discussed Matsui’s four-pitch mix that includes a 92-94 mph fastball that touches 96 along with a splitter, slider, and curveball while also noting that Matsui reportedly struggled to adjust to the MLB ball while participating in the World Baseball Classic last spring. Clearly, the Padres were more enticed by Matsui’s deep pitch mix and impressive velocity for a lefty who is listed at just 5’8” and 167 pounds than they were concerned by his struggles to adjust to the ball used in the majors earlier this year.

While the addition of Matsui shores up a Padres bullpen lacking in certainty, there’s plenty left for president of baseball operations A.J. Preller and his front office to do if they hope to return to contention in 2024. Another set-up arm to pair with Matsui and Suarez at the back of the bullpen would be helpful, and at least one more starting pitcher who can step into the void left by the departures of Blake Snell, Seth Lugo, Michael Wacha, and Nick Martinez this offseason alongside King appears to be all but necessary.

On the hitting side of things, the Padres have just two outfielders on their 40-man roster at the moment in Fernando Tatis Jr. and fourth outfielder Jose Azocar, meaning they’ll need to make multiple additions to the lineup to cover the two vacant outfield spots and DH, which lacks a clear starter following the deal that sent Matt Carpenter and his salary to Atlanta earlier in the month.

That’s a hefty shopping list for any club, but it’s especially daunting for a Padres club that projects for a $210MM luxury tax payroll per RosterResource. If the Padres are indeed intent on staying under the first tax threshold of $237MM in 2024, that gives them just under $27MM of payroll space left to work with this offseason as they look to fill the remaining holes in the lineup and pitching staff. While the addition of Matsui is a step in the right direction that didn’t eat into the club’s financial capabilities too excessively, the Padres clearly still have plenty of work to do before they’re ready to contend in an ever-improving NL West next year.

Padres Release Michel Baez, Jorge Ona

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The Padres released right-hander Michel Baez and outfielder Jorge Ona earlier this week according to the transaction section of each player’s MLB.com player page. Neither of the two former big leaguers were still on the club’s 40-man roster and had been in the organization on minor league contracts.

Baez, 28 next month, signed with the Padres out of Cuba prior to the 2017 season and quickly impressed prospect evaluators. Prior to the 2018 season, Baez was a consensus top-50 prospect in the sport with some publications even ranking him in the top 30. While Baez was moved to the bullpen in 2019, when he made his big league debut later that year the right-hander appeared to be on track to live up to his potential with an impressive 3.03 ERA in 29 2/3 innings of work. Unfortunately, that’s not how things worked out as Baez has made just five appearances in the majors since, most recently in 2022.

While injuries, including Tommy John surgery during the 2021 season, have played a role in Baez’s fall from promising prospect to released from the Padres organization entirely, the right-hander has largely struggled at the upper levels of the minors even when he’s been healthy enough to take the mound. He’s pitched just 35 innings at the Triple-A level in his career with a brutal 8.23 ERA and more walks than strikeouts, while he owns a career 4.47 ERA in 86 2/3 innings of work at the Double-A level.

Ona, 27 next week, signed out of Cuba as part of the same class as Baez, though he didn’t receive the same fanfare as a prospect. Ona has been dogged by injuries all throughout his career, last reaching even 70 games played in a single season back in 2018. When on the field, however, Ona occasionally showed flashes of potentially including a 25-game stint at the Double-A level back in 2019 where he slashed an impressive .348/.418/.539 in 103 plate appearances.

That strong performance earned Ona a brief cup of coffee at the big league level during the shortened 2020 season, where he managed to hit .250/.400/.583 in 15 trips to the plate. Unfortunately, Ona has scarcely taken the field since then with just 422 plate appearances across all levels in the past three seasons, almost all of which have come at the Double-A level. In 2023, Ona managed to get into just 35 games and when on the field slashed a lackluster .218/.301/.391 in 123 trips to the plate.

Now on the open market for the first time in their careers, both Ona and Baez will have the opportunity to either attempt to catch on with another organization at the minor league level or else depart affiliated ball for an independent league or potential overseas opportunities. Baez’s brief flashes of success at the big league level and prospect pedigree could give him better odds of securing another role in affiliated ball than Ona, though its possible the outfielder could be of interest to a team as well if he can prove himself to be healthy enough to handle a full professional season.

Padres Discussed Jake Cronenworth Trade With Blue Jays

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The Padres had talks with the Blue Jays about a possible trade involving Jake Cronenworth, The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal reports.  These discussions notably took place prior to the trade that saw the Padres move Juan Soto and Trent Grisham to the Yankeees, and Rosenthal now suggests that Cronenworth might not be moved since San Diego would be moving another left-handed hitter from a lineup that now tilts rather heavily to the right side.

Rosenthal’s suggestion notwithstanding, the Padres’ payroll balance might be a bigger factor than lineup balance in gauging a Cronenworth trade.  Cost-cutting has been the central theme of the Friars’ offseason, as the team is looking to reset its luxury tax status and perhaps drop the payroll under $200MM, from an approximate $255MM figure in 2023.  This was the chief reasoning behind the Soto trade, as well as Grisham’s inclusion in the deal to move some extra salary off the books.  The Padres also dealt Matt Carpenter to the Braves in another salary dump of a move, while free agent pitchers Seth Lugo, Michael Wacha, and Nick Martinez have all signed elsewhere (and Blake Snell and Josh Hader also doesn’t seem likely to be re-signed).

With this focus in mind, it is hard to imagine that the Padres wouldn’t also be eager to get Cronenworth’s contract off the books.  The infielder is still owed $78MM over the course of a seven-year extension that officially begins with the 2024 season, and that deal now looks like a front office misfire in the wake of Cronenworth’s disappointing 2023 campaign.  While Cronenworth hit a solid .256/.338/.431 over 1519 plate appearances for San Diego from 2020-22, he stumbled to a .229/.312/.378 slash line in 522 PA last season and suffered a right wrist fracture that ended his year in late August.

MLBTR’s Anthony Franco recently looked at the obvious difficulties San Diego would face in trying to trade Cronenworth at this low point in his value, and it seems very unlikely the Padres would be able to swing a deal unless they either ate a big chunk of Cronenworth’s deal, or took on another undesirable contract in return.  As such, it might benefit the Friars to just hang onto Cronenworth and hope that he can rebound next season — either to boost his trade value or simply to reclaim his spot as a building block in the team’s future.

From the Blue Jays’ perspective, acquiring Cronenworth makes sense given the club’s needs at second base and third base.  The versatile infielder has primarily played at the keystone at the MLB level, though he could chip in at third base in a pinch, and also act as a backup for Toronto at shortstop and first base, to boot.  The Jays are also short on left-handed hitters, though naturally the bigger question would be whether Cronenworth would provide much of a lineup upgrade given his 2023 struggles.

It is fair to assume that Toronto’s inquiries didn’t involve the Jays picking up even the majority of Cronenworth’s deal, unless perhaps the interest was also tied into the Blue Jays’ known interest in Soto.  This is purely speculative on my part, but the Jays might’ve considered the idea of taking on the bulk of Cronenworth’s contract in addition to Soto, as a way of reducing the prospect cost that would’ve gone back to San Diego in return.  This tactic would’ve added quite of bit of extra money to Toronto’s payroll, yet the Jays might’ve considered it worthwhile to land Soto even for a year, and without dealing from its minor league ranks.  If Cronenworth had then bounced back in a Jays uniform, that would’ve been an additional long-term bonus.

While Grisham was unloaded as part of the actual Soto trade with the Yankees, the Padres prioritized talent acquisition rather than pure salary offload in the eventual deal, upgrading their rotation with pitchers who can help now (i.e. Michael King) and in the future.  Given how the Padres still plan to compete in 2024 rather than embark on a pure fire sale, watering down Soto’s trade value by attaching a more cumbersome contract like Cronenworth’s extension to the package wouldn’t have been the wiser long-term play.

Eight Teams Combine For Record $209.8MM In Luxury Tax Bills

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Major League Baseball has finalized the luxury tax calculations for the 2023 season, and the eight teams over the Competitive Balance Tax threshold will combine for a total bill of $209.8MM, Ronald Blum of the Associated Press reports.  Both the total number of tax-paying teams and the total sum are new records, surpassing the previous highs of six teams (in 2016 and 2022) and $78.5MM (in 2022).

Here is what each of the eight teams owes for surpassing at least the $233MM base CBT threshold….

  • Mets: $100,781,932
  • Padres: $39.7MM
  • Yankees: $32.4MM
  • Dodgers: $19.4MM
  • Phillies: $6.98MM
  • Blue Jays: $5.5MM
  • Braves: $3.2MM
  • Rangers: $1.8MM

As a reminder of how the luxury tax operates, the CBT figures are determined by the average annual value of salaries for players on the 40-man roster.  A player earning $20MM over two seasons, for example, has a CBT number of $10MM, even if the player might earn $8MM in the first year of the contract and $12MM in the second year.  Deferred money in a contract can reduce a luxury tax number to some extent — most famously, Shohei Ohtani’s $700MM deal with the Dodgers contains $680MM in deferred money, so his CBT hit will be roughly $46MM per season instead of $70MM.

A team is considered a “first-time payor” if they haven’t spent above the CBT threshold in the previous season.  A first-time payor would owe a 20% surcharge on any dollar spent between $233MM and $253MM, 32% of anything between $253MM and $273MM, 62.5% on anything between $273MM and $293MM, and then 80% of overages for anything beyond $293MM.  These percentages rise if a team is a tax payor for two consecutive seasons, and then even further if a team exceeds the CBT line in three or more consecutive seasons.  This year’s CBT class featured three first-time payors (Texas, Atlanta, Toronto), three two-time payors (Philadelphia, both New York teams) and two three-time payors (San Diego, Los Angeles).

The $293MM threshold was instituted in the last Collective Bargaining Agreement as a fourth penalty tier, and it is unofficially known as the “Steve Cohen Tax” in a reference to the Mets owner’s penchant for big spending.  Even though New York has only topped the CBT whatsoever in 2022 and 2023, it isn’t surprising that Cohen’s team set new standards for tax payouts.  The Mets’ tax payroll of $374.7MM and approximate $100.78MM tax bill far exceeded the 2015 Dodgers’ previous records of $291.1MM and $43.6MM, respectively.

This bill would’ve been even higher if the Mets hadn’t unexpectedly struggled, and unloaded some expensive contracts at the trade deadline in order to save some money and reload with an eye towards probably 2025 as a more clear-cut return to contention.  Blum also notes that the Mets received a $2,126,471 tax credit related to a CBA provision, which slightly reduced their bill further.

As always, the actual financial cost of exceeding the tax is perhaps the least-important part of the penalties, especially for teams who barely across the first threshold.  Teams who exceed the CBT line would face further punishment in regards to free agents who reject qualifying offers, whether that translates to additional compensation required to sign a QO-rejecting player, or lesser compensation received if a team’s own qualified free agent signs elsewhere.  For instance, signing Ohtani cost the Dodgers not just $700MM, but also $1MM in international draft pool money and their second- and fifth-highest picks in the 2024 draft.  For a team like the Padres, should Blake Snell or Josh Hader sign elsewhere, San Diego’s compensatory draft selection wouldn’t come until after the fourth round of the 2024 draft.

Spending on talent is more often than not a recipe for success on the field, though obviously hardly a guarantee.  The Mets had a losing record, and the Padres and Yankees each squeaked over the .500 mark with 82-80 records.  The other five tax payors reached the playoffs, though the Phillies and the World Series champion Rangers were the only members of that group of five to win at least one postseason series.

The $209.8MM in tax revenues will be split up in three ways by the league.  The first $3.5MM is devoted to funding player benefits, $103.15MM will go towards funding individual player retirement accounts, and the other $103.15MM will be put into a supplemental commissioner’s discretionary fund and distributed amongst revenue-sharing recipient teams who have grown their (non-media) local revenue over a pre-determined number of years.

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