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Quick Hits: Hamilton, Indians, Cardinals, Rockies

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Links from around baseball..

  • David Lennon of Newsday ran down his predictions for the top free agents on this winter's market.  Lennon sees Josh Hamilton landing with the Brewers on a five-year deal and B.J. Upton getting a six-year pact from the Phillies.  Of course, MLBTR readers can put themselves in the mix for great prizes in our second annual free agent prediction contest.
  • The Indians should follow the example of the Athletics and overhaul their team this offseason, opines ESPN.com's Buster Olney (Insider sub. req'd).  Olney suggests that Cleveland can start the fire sale by trading shortstop Asdrubal Cabrera to a team such as the A's, Mariners, Red Sox, or Yankees.
  • Speaking of the Tribe, Paul Hoynes of The Plain Dealer looks at how a tight financial situation and bad trades combined to hurt the Indians in recent years.
  • MLBTR has learned that Orioles left-hander Zach Phillips has rejected his outright assignment to Triple-A Norfolk and elected free agency.  Phillips, 26, posted a 3.17 ERA with 7.5 K/9 and 3.7 BB/9 in 42 Triple-A outings last season.
  • The Cardinals may pursue short-term fixes at both shortstop and second base rather than entrust their depth to organizational players such as Pete Kozma, Ryan Jackson, or Kolten Wong, writes Joe Strauss of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch.
  • The Rockies could decide on their new manager early this week, writes Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post.  Bench coach Tom Runnells, veteran slugger Jason Giambi, former Rockies shortstop Walt Weiss, and current Diamondbacks third base coach Matt Williams make up the club's final four of candidates.
  • Scott Boras takes a few minutes out of his busy schedule to chat with FOXSports.com's Jon Paul Morosi about the offseason and how new television revenue will fuel spending over the next few months.
  • While strong numbers during a contract year may benefit free agents, teams aren't guaranteed to see a repeat performance from their new investments the following season, writes Brian MacPherson of the Providence Journal. 

Daniel Seco contributed to this post.

NL Links: Padres, Haren, Giambi, Ross, Phillies

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Ken Davidoff of The New York Post ranked the top 30 free agents by value, with Michael Bourn topping the list. Davidoff predicts the outfielder will sign a five-year, $85MM deal with the Nationals. Here's the latest from the only league Bourn has known as a big leaguer, the NL…

  • “Attractive and realistic … Guys we want and think we can get. We went through a list of 40 pitchers to come up with 8-10 we’re really trying to get," said Padres GM Josh Byrnes to Bill Center of The San Diego Union-Tribune. San Diego figures to focus on arms this winter, and Center believes Dan Haren is near the top of that list.
  • Jason Giambi will still deciding whether to play or manage next season, reports Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com (on Twitter). The Rockies are only considering him as a manager, however.
  • Jim Salisbury of CSNPhilly.com looked at Cody Ross as a potential free agent target for the Phillies. In our Offseason Outlook, Ben Nicholson-Smith noted that the Fightin's figure to seek outfield help this winter.
  • The Cardinals have had discussions about expanding Jim Edmonds' role in the organization, reports Joe Strauss of The St. Louis Post-Dispatch (on Twitter). That could mean more time in Spring Training or something else for the team's long-time center fielder, who currently serves as a special instructor.

Outrighted To Triple-A: Cardinals, Solis, Fick

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Here are today's outright assignments…

  • The Cardinals have outrighted Steven Hill, Bryan Anderson, and Adam Reifer to Triple-A, reports Brian Walton of Scout.com. Catchers Hill, 27, and Anderson, 25, have made brief cameos with St. Louis in recent years while Reifer, a 26-year-old right-hander, has never played in the show.
  • The Pirates have outrighted Ali Solis to Triple-A according to the MLB.com transactions page. Pittsburgh claimed the 25-year-old backstop from the Padres late last month, after he hit .283/.307/.419 with San Diego's Double-A affiliate and earned a September call-up.
  • The Astros outrighted Chuckie Fick to Triple-A, the team announced. Houston claimed the 26-year-old right-hander from the Cardinals in July, and he pitched to a 4.30 ERA in 23 innings for Houston down the stretch.

Cardinals Make Kyle Lohse Qualifying Offer

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The Cardinals extended a qualifying offer to Kyle Lohse, Jenifer Langosch of MLB.com reports (on Twitter). He now has one week to accept or decline the offer.

If Lohse accepts, he’ll earn $13.3MM on a one-year deal in 2013. If he declines, he’ll be linked to draft pick compensation in free agency — his new team will have to surrender a top selection to sign him. Lohse ranks tenth on MLBTR’s list of top 50 free agents.

Offseason Outlook: St. Louis Cardinals

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The Cardinals enter the offseason without the need for large-scale change.

Guaranteed Contracts

Arbitration Eligible Players (estimated salaries)

Free Agents

No general manager begins an offseason by declaring that his team could contend for a championship as-is. It'd be boastful and create unwanted attention. But if any team can contend in 2013 without making prominent offseason additions it's the Cardinals.

Adam Wainwright - Cardinals (PW)

The Cardinals seem to be in tremendous position for the 2013 season. Their roster includes impact players in their prime such as Yadier Molina and Matt Holliday. It features an effective starting rotation with a combination of established veterans and powerful young arms. There's a collection of homegrown, pre-arbitration eligible position players who can really hit. And the roster doesn't include a single bad contract.

That said, John Mozeliak has a number of needs this offseason. The general manager will pursue left-handed relief, perhaps through free agency. Jeremy Affeldt, Sean Burnett and Randy Choate are among the free agent left-handers who could become targets in St. Louis. There's also the possibility of a trade, not that teams are generally keen on parting with reliable left-handed relief. It'd make sense for the Cardinals to offer Burnett or Affeldt a modest multiyear deal if that's what it takes.

The Cardinals could also consider upgrades at the middle infield positions. They have more internal options at second base than at shortstop, since Matt Carpenter will work out at second this offseason and prospect Kolten Wong could contribute at the MLB level by 2013. There's also trade candidate Skip Schumaker and Daniel Descalso, who spent most of the '12 season at second.

Pete Kozma's postseason performance aside, the Cardinals have legitimate questions at shortstop. Counting on Rafael Furcal to stay healthy all year probably isn't realistic at this point, leading Joe Strauss to suggest the Cardinals could add a shortstop for the short term. While this may not be an urgent need, it's worth keeping in mind.

Schumaker doesn't have a clear role on next year's Cardinals team, so he could be traded. He'd likely draw interest given his $1.5MM salary, the scarcity of free agent second basemen and his ability to hit right-handed pitching and reach base. The Royals, Orioles and Blue Jays should all consider Schumaker in my view. Matt Adams could be another trade chip, since he doesn't have a clear role on the St. Louis roster. The 24-year-old has shown lots of power at the minor league level and could appeal to teams such as the Rays and Indians. If those teams hesitate to surrender value in trades, the Cardinals can simply keep Adams as depth.

Kyle Lohse will hit free agency this offseason, and he won't be returning to St. Louis. Expect the Cardinals to extend the right-hander a qualifying offer to set themselves up for draft pick compensation in 2013. Lance Berkman will also leave as a free agent (assuming he doesn't retire). Instead, Jenifer Langosch has suggested the Cardinals could pursue a right-handed hitting power threat for the bench. Jonny Gomes and Casper Wells are among the right-handed hitting outfielders who could appeal to Mozeliak.

The GM will likely discuss a potential extension with Adam Wainwright's representatives in the coming months. At this point, Wainwright, Chris Carpenter and Jake Westbrook are all on track to hit free agency following the 2013 season. By extending Wainwright the Cardinals would lock up a reliable starter who can facilitate the transition to a younger group of arms. He pitched well in his return from Tommy John surgery, even if he fell short of the lofty personal standards he established in 2009-10. Wainwright's representatives at Aegis Sports Management could be positioned to demand four or five additional years now that Wainwright's this close to free agency.

The Cardinals' group of six arbitration eligible players includes one non-tender candidate: Kyle McClellan. It's also possible Mozeliak could trade McClellan to a team in need of pitching, though they probably wouldn't obtain much in return given his season-ending shoulder injury.

The group also includes a number of extension candidates. It might make sense to wait before extending David Freese given his difficulties staying on the field. The Cardinals could also look to cap costs by signing relievers such as Jason Motte and Mitchell Boggs to modest extensions. At this stage there's no urgency to complete deals, so unless the Cardinals are getting discounts or extending their period of team control, new contracts won't be necessary.

Even a well-built team such as this one has offseason needs. Mozeliak will attempt to add left-handed relief and sort out his team's middle infield in the coming months. Still, compared to last offseason — a winter that included a managerial search and high stakes negotiations with the organization's franchise player — this year will probably seem pretty quiet.

Photo courtesy of US Presswire.

NL Central Links: Dempster, Hamilton, Brewers, Cards

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It was on this day in 1962 that Joe Morgan signed his first pro contract, joining the Houston Colt .45s as an amateur free agent.  Morgan spent his first nine seasons in Houston before being traded to the Reds and establishing himself as arguably the best second baseman in baseball history.

Here's the latest from the NL Central…

  • Cubs GM Jed Hoyer confirmed to ESPN Chicago's Doug Padilla that the team had made "contact and it was preliminary" with Ryan Dempster, though Hoyer was quick to minimize the importance of the meeting, saying "it was sort of a bump-into thing."  It was reported earlier today by MLB.com's Carrie Muskat that the Cubs had been in touch with Dempster's agent.
  • "We’ve got the connection with (hitting coach) Johnny Narron but we don’t have the connection with U.S. Bank,” Brewers GM Doug Melvin told Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel about the chances of the Brewers splurging on Josh Hamilton this winter.  Melvin noted that he would like to acquire relief pitching this offseason but was wary given the rising prices of quality bullpen arms.
  • Also from Haudricourt, he hears from Brewers assistant GM Gord Ash that the club has no plans to re-sign either right-hander Jose Veras or outfielder Nyjer Morgan, both of whom were outrighted off Milwaukee's 40-man roster over the last two days.
  • The Cardinals have signed 16-year-old Dominican outfielder Henry Alvarado to a $150K contract, reports Ben Badler of Baseball America.  Alvarado is described as being best suited to left field or possibly first base, and he "stands out for his righthanded bat, sound approach and occasional power."

Quick Hits: Ankiel, Dempster, Towles, Bourn

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If you haven’t done so already, be sure to check out Tim Dierkes’ list of the top 50 free agents for the upcoming offseason. The list includes Tim’s predictions for each player, and we’d like you to join us in predicting the destinations for the top 50 free agents. You can make your picks here. Now for this afternoon’s links…

  • Joe Strauss of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch hears Rick Ankiel is open to giving pitching another shot. The Cardinals could be among the teams willing to give Ankiel another chance on the mound. Ankiel pitched for the Cardinals from 1999-2004, putting together a strong season as a 20-year-old in 2000. He returned to the big leagues as a hitter in 2007.
  • The Cubs have been in contact with Ryan Dempster’s agent about the possibility of a contract, Carrie Muskat of MLB.com reports (on Twitter). The Cubs traded the LSW baseball client to the Rangers midseason and he’s now a free agent (he can't sign with a team other than Texas until Saturday).
  • Catcher J.R. Towles left Hendricks Sports for agent Burton Rocks, Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com reports (on Twitter). Our Agency Database has current information on the agents of most MLB players.
  • Jim Salisbury of CSNPhilly.com hears word that Michael Bourn could be looking for as much as $100MM in free agency. The Phillies would probably be reluctant to spend that kind of money on a 30-year-old player who relies heavily on his legs, Salisbury writes.
  • Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports previews the destinations for a number of the offseason’s top free agents.

NL Central Notes: Astros, Cardinals, Braun, Cubs

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Earlier today, MLBTR gave you the latest news and notes from the AL East and the NL West. Now, let's visit the NL Central, which could be in its final hours as the only six-team division in baseball. 
  • Astros GM Jeff Luhnow's vision to rebuild the franchise is a club that grows and develops its players but can spend when it needs to thanks to increased revenue from a new local cable partnership with Comcast, according to Brian T. Smith of the Houston Chronicle.
  • There will be competition for at least one spot in the Cardinals' starting rotation, reports the St. Louis Post-Dispatch's Derrick Goold. Goold theorizes that competition will pit incumbent Lance Lynn against Joe Kelly, Trevor Rosenthal, and Shelby Miller.
  • In a separate piece, Goold named the seven best starting pitching prospects in the Cardinals' system that have yet to exhaust their rookie eligibility, including the aforementioned Rosenthal and Miller.
  • Jeff Gordon of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch lists five reasons for optimism and five reasons for concern for the 2013 Cardinals.
  • After speaking with members of the Baseball Writers Association of America, Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel has the distinct impression that Ryan Braun will be penalized in the voting for NL MVP because of his failed drug test last year and subsequent successful appeal. Haudricourt also believes the failed drug test played a role in Buster Posey being named the NL winner of the Hank Aaron Award instead of Braun. 
  • The Cubs have hired Derek Johnson to become their new minor league pitching coordinator, tweets Baseball America's Aaron Fitt. Johnson was Associate Head Coach/pitching coach at Vanderbilt where he tutored six pitchers who were drafted in the first round including David Price and Sonny Gray.

Lance Berkman Will Listen To Offers This Offseason

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A few weeks ago we heard that Lance Berkman was leaning towards retiring after the season, but yesterday he told Joe Strauss of The St. Louis Post-Dispatch that he is still "not real sure" about his future. He will file for free agency after the World Series just to keep his options open, however.

"I think it would behoove me to at least listen if there is an offer out there," said Berkman. "But honestly I don't know what is going to happen or what's going to be my thought process."

Berkman, 36, was limited to 97 plate appearances this season due to a pair of right knee surgeries, the fourth and fifth knee surgeries of his career. Just a year ago he hit .301/.412/.547 with 31 homers while starting over 120 games in the outfield with the Cardinals, good enough for a seventh place finish in the MVP voting.

There has been speculation that Berkman could return to the Astros as a DH next season since the club is shifting to the AL. He went to college in Houston and spent the first 12 years of his big league career with the 'Stros. Berkman recently said he won't come back unless his knee is 100% though, even if he is healthy enough to just DH.

Cardinals GM John Mozeliak said "it's hard to imagine finding a fit" for Berkman with the club next year, and Berkman admits that he has a long way to go with his conditioning before getting into playing shape. "My plan right now is to treat the offseason as if I was going to play next season by continuing my knee rehab and getting my legs back under me," he said.

Arbitration Eligibles: St. Louis Cardinals

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The Cardinals are next in our 2013 Arbitration Eligibles series.  Matt Swartz's salary projections are below.

With Motte, Mujica, Boggs, Rzepczynski, and McClellan, the majority of the Cardinals' arbitration cases are relievers.  In his first full year as the Cardinals' closer, Motte racked up an impressive 42 saves with strong peripheral numbers.  The 30-year-old is under team control through 2014, and the Cardinals could reduce the cost and add a free agent year or two with an extension.  The three-year, $20MM extension signed by Carlos Marmol after the 2010 season could be a model.

Mujica came to the Cardinals at the trade deadline and allowed just three runs in 26 1/3 regular season innings.  With 30 holds this year, he's in line for a handsome raise.  Boggs posted 34 holds, and will top $1MM as a first-timer.  Rzepczynski slipped this year, but figures to be retained affordably.  McClellan spent most of the year on the disabled list, requiring shoulder surgery in July.  Earlier this month, MLB.com's Jenifer Langosch wrote that McClellan will throw for the entire month of November, which will give the Cardinals a chance to evaluate him before deciding whether to tender a contract.  Langosch expects McClellan to be non-tendered, but with the door open for a new contract.

Freese, 29, made the All-Star team this year and ultimately posted career highs in games played (144 in the regular season) and thus all relevant counting stats.  Last year's postseason heroics won't hurt at the arbitration table, either.  Is it too early to consider extending Freese, a Wildwood, Missouri native?  Freese's injuries this year were numerous but minor, though you hate to see any kind of ankle concerns still cropping up.  I think the Cards would be best-served to let 2013 play out before seriously talking extension.

Assuming everyone is tendered a contract aside from McClellan, the Cardinals are looking at a projected $12.7MM for five arbitration eligible players.

Matt Swartz's arbitration projections are available exclusively at MLB Trade Rumors.  To read more about his projection model, check out this series of posts.

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