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Rays Showing Interest In Several Veteran Starters

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The Rays’ rotation has been ravaged by injury in 2023, with starters Drew Rasmussen and Jeffrey Springs both going down for the season already. Shane Baz underwent Tommy John surgery last September, and Shane McClanahan has been out since June 30 with a back injury (though he’s expected back tonight). Tyler Glasnow is healthy at the moment but has been limited to just nine starts this season. Southpaw Josh Fleming hit the injured list on June 3 and has since been moved to the 60-day IL.

Tampa Bay remains in first place despite that slate of health woes, but the rotation currently consists of McClanahan, Glasnow, Zach Eflin and top prospect Taj Bradley. The Rays have had their share of bullpen games this season already, and with so many of their arms done for the year, they’re in the market for veteran rotation help. Bob Nightengale of USA Today reports that they’ve already spoken to the White Sox about a potential deal for Lance Lynn, and they’ve also “extensively” scouted Cardinals rental arms Jordan Montgomery and Jack Flaherty.

Lynn, 36, is in the second season of a two-year, $38MM contract that contains a $18MM club option (or $1MM buyout) for the 2024 season. The 2021 All-Star finished in the top six of American League Cy Young voting each season from 2019-21 but is currently in the midst of one of the toughest seasons of his career. Through 108 1/3 frames, Lynn owns a 6.06 ERA, due largely to an MLB-high 24 home runs allowed.

While the long ball has plagued Lynn at career-worst levels in 2023, he’s still missing bats at a high level and limiting walks at a passable rate. Lynn’s 27.7% strikeout rate ranks tenth in the Majors among qualified starters, and his 14% swinging-strike rate ranks eighth. His 8.3% walk rate is just narrowly higher than the 7.9% average among big league starters. Metrics like xFIP (3.82) and SIERA (3.79) feel he’s outperformed his baseline ERA.

Lynn is being paid $18.5MM this season and, as of this writing, has about $7.6MM remaining on the deal — plus the $1MM buyout on next year’s option. Despite the poor results, Nightengale notes that the asking price on the righty remains high — likely reflective of both the limited number of starters available and the broad number of teams who believe Lynn’s strong K-BB profile makes him an appealing rebound candidate.

As for the Cardinals’ starters, both are rather straightforward trade candidates. The Cards sit in last place in the National League Central and are 11.5 games back not only in the division but also in the National League Wild Card chase. President of baseball ops John Mozeliak is already turning his focus to the 2024 season, and the Cardinals already look to be making some changes on the roster, as they’re reportedly set to designate lefty reliever Genesis Cabrera for assignment today.

Both Montgomery and Flaherty, meanwhile, are set to be free agents following the season. The 30-year-old Montgomery would be a natural candidate to receive and reject a qualifying offer at season’s end, but the demand for rotation help should create a trade return that outpaces that value. In 18 starts and 103 innings this year, Montgomery boasts a 3.23 ERA with a 22.3% strikeout rate (roughly average for a starting pitcher), a strong 6.6% walk rate and an above-average 45.9% ground-ball rate. He’s earning $10MM on the season — about $4.1MM of which is yet to be paid out.

Flaherty, 27, was one of the NL’s best young starters in 2018-19 but has been plagued by injuries for much of the past few seasons. He’s been healthy in 2023, making 18 starts and tallying 98 2/3 innings, but this year’s 11.8% walk rate is an alarming mark that represents a continuation of last year’s career-worst levels (13.2%). Despite that high level, he has a 4.29 ERA with strikeout and ground-ball rates nearly identical to those of Montgomery. At $5.4MM, he’s earning roughly half the salary of Montgomery and has about $2.2MM still owed to him.

There’s no indication yet that the Rays have had any sort of advanced talks on any of the three, and this trio surely represents just a handful of a larger number of arms Tampa Bay is considering. It stands to reason that they’ll check in on the majority of arms available, particularly those currently playing for concrete sellers like the White Sox and Cardinals. Each of Lynn, Montgomery and Flaherty has a good chance to be moved in the next few weeks, and each will draw interest from a broad range of suitors. The Rays, with a deep farm system and clear postseason ambitions, have the ability and motivation to land just about any starting pitcher they covet; time will tell which direction they go as they continue to survey the market between now and the Aug. 1 deadline.

Cardinals To Designate Genesis Cabrera For Assignment

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The Cardinals are planning to designate left-handed reliever Genesis Cabrera for assignment today, reports Katie Woo of The Athletic. They’ll have a week to trade him or attempt to pass him through outright waivers once the move is official.

Cabrera, 26, posted a sharp 3.41 ERA in 92 1/3 innings with the Cards from 2020-21, but he’s never displayed even average command at the MLB level and has struggled over the past two seasons. Dating back to Opening Day 2022, the southpaw carries a 4.82 ERA with a below-average 20.8% strikeout rate and much higher-than-average 11.3% walk rate. Cabrera’s heater averaged 97.9 mph during 2021, arguably his peak season, but that velocity is down two miles per hour from that level in 2023, sitting at 95.9 mph. He’s also been extremely home-run prone dating back to last year, averaging 1.64 home runs per nine innings pitched.

Even with the downturn in velocity and pedestrian strikeout rate over the past two seasons, there’s still some reason to believe Cabrera is capable of more. Averaging roughly 96 mph from the left side is of note, even if that’s down from peak levels, and Cabrera sports a very strong 13.6% swinging-strike rate this season. He’s also induced chases off the plate at an above-average 32.6% clip. There’s little doubt that Cabrera has intriguing raw stuff, and another team may have a different plan to maximize his arsenal.

Beyond his power repertoire, Cabrera is affordable ($950K salary in 2023), controllable and has a minor league option remaining. He entered the current season with just over three years of Major League service time, so he can be controlled through the 2025 campaign. He’s unlikely to fetch a major price in a trade, but another club could view him as an interesting buy-low candidate who could contribute not just this year but for another two seasons.

Cabrera’s DFA figures to be the first of a broad-reaching slate of roster changes for the Cardinals in the next few weeks. President of baseball operations John Mozeliak has already suggested that the 2024 season will be his focus at this year’s deadline, and the Cards are expected to at the very least shop rental players like Jordan Montgomery, Jack Flaherty, Jordan Hicks, Paul DeJong and Chris Stratton. Broader-reaching changes are possible — the Cards have a glut of MLB-ready outfielders, for instance — but the Cardinals aren’t expected to trade core players and have given no indication that a larger-scale teardown is coming as a result of this year’s disastrous season.

Central Notes: Perez, Tellez, Jimenez, Kelly, O’Neill, Knizner

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Salvador Perez suffered a left hamstring strain while scoring a run in today’s 8-4 Royals victory over the Rays.  Perez scored from first base on a MJ Melendez double, but the extra effort was costly for the veteran catcher, and a trip to the injured list now seems likely.  The time lost will depend on the grade of Perez’s strain, and manager Matt Quartraro told MLB.com’s Anne Rogers and other reporters that the club will have more information on Monday.

An injury to Perez just adds to a nightmare of a season for the Royals, as they are a measly 27-67 after today’s win.  Perez is hitting .258/.299/.444 with 15 home runs over 345 plate apperances, translating to below-average (97 wRC+) overall offense for the 33-year-old backstop.  It represents a dropoff from Perez’s usual production, yet he remains one of the best bats on a Royals team that has almost entirely underachieved.  Melendez and Freddy Fermin seem likely to take over catching duties in the event of Perez hitting the IL, and if you’re wondering if the injury might impact Perez’s trade value, Kansas City general manager J.J. Picollo already stated last month that Perez isn’t going anywhere.

More from the two Central divisions…

  • The Brewers were expecting Rowdy Tellez back from the 10-day IL this coming Tuesday, but the first baseman suffered another injury while shagging fly balls prior to today’s game.  As manager Craig Counsell told the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel’s Todd Rosiak and other reporters, Tellez was trying to make a catch when he caught his left ring finger between the seams of the outfield wall padding.  The result was a broken fingertip, a torn nail, and an estimated 3-4 more weeks on the injured list.  Tellez had been sidelined with forearm inflammation, and he was looking to rebound from a nasty slump that had dropped his numbers to .213/.285/.388 over 288 PA.  First base/DH was already expected to be a target area for the Brewers heading into the trade deadline, and Tellez’s extended absence now only increases the club’s need for some extra corner power.
  • Eloy Jimenez will be out of the White Sox lineup for at least “the next few days” due to a groin injury, manager Pedro Grifol told MLB.com and other media.  Jimenez had to make an early exit from today’s game due to the injury, and testing will determine the severity or if Jimenez might be headed for the 10-day IL.  The slugger already missed around three weeks earlier this season while recovering from an appendectomy, and a variety of injuries have limited Jimenez’s playing time over his five Major League seasons.  Over 259 PA for Chicago this season, Jimenez has 12 home runs and a .269/.313/.463 slash line.
  • In better injury news for the White Sox, Joe Kelly threw a bullpen session today and plans to return from the 15-day IL during the Sox/Mets series that begins on Tuesday, Daryl Van Schouwen of the Chicago Sun-Times tweets.  Kelly was placed on the IL due to elbow inflammation on July 5, so he’ll return after a minimal stint.  Secondary metrics indicate that Kelly is drastically outperforming his uninspiring 4.82 ERA, so some better bottom-line numbers over the next couple of weeks might turn Kelly into a trade chip for the White Sox at the deadline.
  • The Cardinals activated catcher Andrew Knizner off the 10-day IL today, and manager Oli Marmol told reporters (including Daniel Guerrero of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch) that the club will continue to carry three catchers on the roster since it wants to see more of youngster Ivan Herrera.  It remains to be seen how the Cardinals will split the playing time between Willson Contreras, Knizner, and Herrera, but Knizner was the only member of the trio to see action in the Cards’ 8-4 win over the Nationals today.  In other St. Louis injury news, Tyler O’Neill might return from the IL on Tuesday if he emerges in good form after a Triple-A rehab game today.

NL Central Notes: Cubs, Stroman, Burnes, Wainwright

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As the trade deadline on August 1 creeps ever closer, the Cubs stand as one of a handful of teams that has yet to make a decision regarding whether they will be buyers or sellers this trade season. President of baseball operations Jed Hoyer spoke to 670 The Score on Friday regarding the club’s plans. Hoyer asserted that “there is nothing we want more than to add” at the coming deadline, though he made clear the club was willing to pivot if buying at the deadline seemed imprudent.

The Cubs currently sit at a record of 43-48 following today’s win against the Red Sox, a record that will leave them seven games out of first place following this evening’s game between the Reds and Brewers. While the club’s +27 run differential is by far the best in the NL Central, Hoyer acknowledged that in order to justify buying at the deadline, “We need to make up ground on first place, and we need to make up ground on .500.”

Should the Cubs fail to do so over the next two weeks, the club seems poised to shop players like center fielder Cody Bellinger and right-hander Marcus Stroman to contending clubs. Stroman, whose lack of extension talks with the club has been well documented, told reporters (including Bruce Levine of The Score) today that he does not expect an extension offer from the Cubs prior to the trade deadline. Even if he’s traded, however, Stroman indicated he would have interest in returning to Chicago on a new contract during the offseason. Stroman can opt-out of the final year and $21MM on his contract after the 2023 campaign comes to a close, and seems all but certain to do so after posting a 2.88 ERA in 118 2/3 innings across his first 20 starts of the season.

More from around the NL Central:

  • While Stroman’s future is up in the air, the same can’t be said for Brewers ace Corbin Burnes, who told reporters (including MLB.com’s Adam McCalvy) that GM Matt Arnold has privately told him that he will not be traded. That matches what Arnold has said publicly, as he previously indicated that Milwaukee would look to add at the deadline and would not consider moving either Burnes or shortstop Willy Adames. The news hardly comes as a surprise given the step back Burnes has taken this season relative to the Cy Young-caliber performance he offered from 2020-22, during which time he posted a 2.62 ERA and 2.40 FIP across 428 2/3 innings of work. In 2023, Burnes has been more solid than spectacular, with a 3.73 ERA and 4.07 FIP in 19 starts with a reduced 24.8% strikeout rate.
  • Cardinals veteran Adam Wainwright has endured a difficult season as he prepares to retire following the 2023 campaign. In 11 starts with St. Louis this season, Wainwright posted a ghastly 7.66 ERA and 5.87 FIP prior to heading to the injured list prior to the All-Star break with a shoulder strain. Wainwright is expected to return to the mound this season, however, and manager Oli Marmol today provided an update on the veteran’s status. In conversation with reporters, including MLB.com’s John Denton, Marmol noted that Wainwright was set to resume throwing off a mound on Monday after receiving multiple shots in his shoulder to help alleviate pain. Once back on the mound, Wainwright will be built up to return to the club’s rotation later this season.

Injury Notes: Edman, Candelario, Gausman, Sborz

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Tommy Edman was placed on the Cardinals’ 10-day injured list on July 7, as the multi-positional regular was suffering from inflammation in right wrist.  A clean MRI provided some hope that Edman could be back soon after the All-Star break, but that doesn’t look like it will be the case, as manager Oli Marmol told reporters (including MLB.com) that Edman received an injection in his wrist.  As a result, Marmol said it will be “several more days” before Edman can return.

Rotating between shortstop, second base, center field, and right field this season, Edman’s versatility and switch-hitting bat have been very helpful to St. Louis, even if his production at the plate has dropped off.  Edman had a 108 wRC+ over 630 plate appearances in 2022, but he had only a 91 wRC+ (and a .237/.303/.391 slash line) over 307 PA thus far in 2023.  It could be that the move to the outfield is hurting Edman’s hitting, as his offense has badly tailed off since the Cardinals started regularly starting him in center field in late May.  With St. Louis looking like probable sellers at the deadline, it remains to be seen how Edman might fit into what could be a remodeled mix around the diamond, though the first order of business for the 28-year-old is just to get healthy.  To be clear, there hasn’t been much trade buzz around Edman himself, and his lingering injury would certainly seem like a further obstacle to any sort of deal.

More injury updates from around baseball…

  • Jeimer Candelario is a much clearer trade candidate as the deadline approaches, but the Nationals third baseman got an injury scare of his own yesterday when he injured his thumb during a pregame fielding drill.  Manager Davey Martinez described the injury as a bone bruise, and Candelario tried to play through the pain but had to leave the game after his first at-bat.  Candelario is day to day for now, as Martinez told reporters (including Mark Zuckerman of MASNsports.com) that the infielder was hoping to be ready as soon as tonight’s game with the Cardinals.  While there’s no truly good time for an injury, the timing is particularly bad for Candelario and the Nats with the deadline approaching.  Even a minimal IL stint will likely impact the club’s chances of maximizing value in a trade, or it could scuttle the chances of a deal altogether.
  • Blue Jays righty Kevin Gausman was scratched from his scheduled start today due to soreness in his left side, with Chris Bassitt instead taking the hill against the Diamondbacks.  Jays manager John Schneider told The Athletic’s Kaitlyn McGrath (Twitter links) and other reporters that Gausman first felt the discomfort after his last start before the All-Star break, but an MRI didn’t reveal any injury.  As such, Gausman might be able to return as early as Tuesday when the Blue Jays begin a series with the Padres.  It’s no surprise that Toronto is being cautious with their ace, as a healthy Gausman (who leads all MLB pitchers with 4.0 fWAR) is critical to the Jays’ chances of reaching the postseason.
  • The Rangers placed right-hander Josh Sborz on the 15-day injured list due to right biceps tendinitis, with a backdated placement date of July 12.  Left-hander John King was called up from Triple-A in the corresponding move.  Sborz has been rocked for nine earned runs over his last 9 1/3 innings (four appearances) of work, spoiling what had been a quietly solid season for the righty in the Texas bullpen.  In his previous 34 1/3 innings, Sborz had posted a 2.62 ERA while limiting opposing batters to a .460 OPS.  Texas has already made an early trade for Aroldis Chapman in an attempt to shore up its inconsistent bullpen, and more relief help might be needed by the deadline if Sborz will now miss a significant amount of time.

Cardinals To Sign First-Rounder Chase Davis

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The Cardinals are expected to finalize their agreement with 21st overall pick Chase Davis today, according to MLB.com’s John Denton (Twitter link).  The 21st selection has a slot value of $3,618,200, but Davis’ bonus isn’t known since Denton has since corrected his intial report about how much the outfielder would receive.  Fangraphs ranked Davis as the 16th-best prospect in the 2023 class, with MLB Pipeline (22nd), Baseball America (28th), The Athletic’s Keith Law (30th), and ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel (31st) all only slightly less enthused about the 21-year-old outfielder’s potential.

As BA’s scouting report notes, “Davis remains a divisive prospect, perhaps given his history of contact questions,” but he significantly cut back his strikeouts during his most recent college season.  This only added to a strong offensive profile that includes hard contact and the ability to hit to all fields, plus power grades in the 55-60 range.  Davis has an excellent throwing arm and looks to have a pretty safe floor as an above-average corner outfielder, with enough speed that he might be able to handle center field.

The 21-year-old Davis will look to be the latest in a long line of homegrown Cardinals position players to reach the majors, though with so many of those players now in St. Louis, the Cards’ current top prospect list is mostly pitcher-heavy at the top (with the notable exception of shortstop Masyn Winn).  While teams don’t draft to address needs at the moment, it is interesting to note that the Cardinals are adding another outfielder at a time when the club might be readying itself to move some of its position-player surplus for longer-term pitching assets at the trade deadline.

Cardinals Interested In Logan Gilbert

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The Cardinals are coming out of the All-Star break with a 38-52 record, placing them in last place in the National League Central and 11 games back in the Wild Card race. President of baseball operations John Mozeliak recently admitted that the club will have to approach the deadline as sellers, focusing on making moves that benefit the 2024 club.

The club has just over two weeks until the August 1 deadline, giving them some time to figure out their plans, but Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch has a report with some specifics that shine a light on their current plans. Notably, the Cards are uninterested in trading core players like Nolan Arenado, Paul Goldschmidt, Lars Nootbaar and Jordan Walker. They are open, however, to trading pitchers like Jordan Montgomery, Jordan Hicks, Ryan Helsley and Génesis Cabrera, while Jack Flaherty is already generating interest from other clubs. As for what kind of player they are looking to bring in, Goold lists Logan Gilbert of the Mariners as someone they are interested in.

To be clear, there’s no indication that the Mariners have any inclination towards trading Gilbert, but it’s entirely understandable why the Cards would be interested. The 26-year-old Gilbert has made 74 starts to this point in his career, posting a 3.75 ERA with a 24% strikeout rate, 5.7% walk rate and 36.9% ground ball rate. He’s right in line with those figures this year, having a 3.66 ERA with similar peripherals in 18 starts.

More importantly for the Cardinals, Gilbert can be immediately plugged into their rotation and has plenty of club control remaining. He came into this season with one year and 144 days of service time and will finish this season at 2.144. That makes him a virtual lock to qualify for arbitration as a Super Two player this winter, but he will still have four years of club control left, meaning he isn’t slated to become a free agent until after the 2027 season.

The Cards are not planning a deep rebuild but are instead focused on next year’s club, when they have plenty of rotation uncertainty. Adam Wainwright is planning to retire after this year, while both Flaherty and Montgomery are impending free agents. They have also seen some internal options struggle this year. Steven Matz had an ERA of 5.72 through 10 starts before getting bumped to the bullpen, though he recently retook a rotation job after some solid relief work. Matthew Liberatore has decent numbers in Triple-A but a 6.75 ERA in the majors this year. Dakota Hudson has spent most of the year in Triple-A, posting an ERA of 6.00 at that level. All of that leaves Miles Mikolas as the only sure thing for next year’s rotation.

But Seattle wouldn’t give up Gilbert easily. The club is 45-44 right now and just four games out in the American League Wild Card race. Gilbert is a key part of their rotation right now and for future seasons, given his aforementioned years of control. If they were to give any thought to moving him, they would likely have to get back something that helps some other part of their roster in the here and now. They also have Luis Castillo, George Kirby and Bryan Woo in their rotation alongside Gilbert, but Robbie Ray is out of the season while Bryce Miller and Marco Gonzales are currently on the injured list. Subtracting Gilbert from that mix would to be weighed against the benefits of an upgrade elsewhere.

The Mariners have tried to do a buy-sell hybrid before, which was in 2021. They flipped relievers Kendall Graveman and Rafael Montero to the Astros in exchange for Joe Smith and Abraham Toro, while picking up Diego Castillo and Tyler Anderson in separate deals. The move didn’t work out, with the clubhouse apparently not thrilled by the closer suddenly pitching for a divisional rival and the M’s ultimately missing the playoffs.

This year’s trade deadline is generally considered to have a lack of sellers that may force clubs to consider trades between contenders, with each club giving up current major league talent, such as last year’s deal where the Cards got Montgomery from the Yankees for Harrison Bader. A Gilbert trade would be a significantly different beast though, since Montgomery and Bader each had just a season and a half of club control remaining at the time. When factoring in Gilbert’s extra control and the fact that the M’s just got burned on the hybrid deadline strategy not too long ago, it’s hard to view a trade coming together as a likely scenario.

Nonetheless, the interest from the Cardinals is instructive as to what their targets might be. They have a crowded position player mix and may perhaps look to swap someone from that group for some controllable pitching, even if it’s not Gilbert. It remains to be seen which players they are willing to put on the table in such a pursuit, but it seems they’ll hang onto Arenado, Goldschmidt, Nootbaar and Walker.

It’s not a terrible shock to see those names listed as off-limits. Goldschmidt and Arenado are the two most important players on the club, finishing first and third respectively in National League MVP voting last year. Both players also have full no-trade clauses, which would make a deal complicated even if the Cardinals wanted to consider it. The players could always waive their clauses but Goold reports that Arenado has not been approached about doing so and would prefer to stay anyway. There’s been no reporting to suggest that anything is different with Goldschmidt.

Walker was one of the top prospects in the league coming into this year and is faring well in his first season, hitting .283/.347/.457 for a 123 wRC+ thus far. He made the club’s Opening Day roster but was optioned for over a month at one point, meaning he’ll come up shy of one year of major league service here in 2023 and leave the Cards with six further seasons of control. As a consensus top prospect, he could earn that full year by finishing in the top two of Rookie of the Year voting, but he would still be a key part of the club’s future even in that scenario.

Nootbaar, meanwhile, has hit .241/.343/.420 in 226 career games while providing above-average outfield defense. He will still have four years of control remaining after this one and isn’t slated to qualify for arbitration until after 2024.

Just because those names are listed as unavailable, it doesn’t necessarily mean that anyone not named is therefore available, but the club will likely have to move someone. Tyler O’Neill has often been speculated as a candidate since the club has Nootbaar, Walker, Dylan Carlson and others in the outfield mix. On the infield, meanwhile, Tommy Edman and Brendan Donovan have somewhat similar multi-positional profiles and have been pushed to the grass with Paul DeJong and Nolan Gorman often in the middle infield. If the Cards have their sights set on an impact rotation addition like Gilbert or someone similar, they might have to make the difficult decision of parting with someone in that group.

Though that situation seems fluid and has many factors, the rental pitching seems much more straightforward. Each of Montgomery, Flaherty and Hicks are impending free agents and seem virtual locks to be moved at this point. Montgomery is a consistent mid-rotation guy, with a 3.75 career ERA and a 3.23 mark here in 2023. He’s making $10MM this year, which will leave about $3.22MM left to be paid out at the deadline.

Flaherty has shown ace upside in the past but was held back by injuries in recent years. He’s not back to those ace levels this year, currently sporting a 4.27 ERA, but he’s at least healthy and effective enough for a rotation job. Hicks, meanwhile, has triple-digit velocity and seems to be finally figuring out how to weaponize it properly.

Helsley and Cabrera aren’t strict rentals and don’t need to be moved at this deadline, necessarily. But given the volatility of relief performance, it’s logical for the Cardinals to consider what kind of return they can get right now. Helsley seemed to take over the closer’s role last year, posting a 1.25 ERA and racking up 19 saves in the process. He has a 3.24 ERA this year but has been on the injured list for the past month due to a strained right forearm. Players on the IL can be traded but his health status might cast a shadow over trade talks. He can be controlled for two more seasons after this one via arbitration. He’s making $2.15MM and will have about $700K left to be paid out when the deadline rolls around.

Cabrera, 26, has been inconsistent in terms of his strikeouts but has always had subpar control. Regardless, left-handed relief tends to always be in demand to some degree. He has a 4.07 ERA in his career but a 4.70 mark this year. He’s struck out 25.7% of opponents this season but walked 13.2%. Like Helsley, he can be retained via arbitration for two more campaigns after this one. He’s making $950K this year, which will leave just over $300K at deadline time.

All in all, there are many moving parts for the Cardinals to consider, making them one of the most interesting clubs to watch in the coming weeks. They haven’t been in the clear seller position in a while, but they seem well-positioned to take advantage of it. Few clubs are in the same category and many of the other clear sellers have far less to offer in terms of players that would be of interest for contending clubs.

The Well-Timed Breakout Of Jordan Hicks

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Not a lot has gone right for the Cardinals this year. They came into the season with a talented roster and hopes of contention but have repeatedly struggled to get into a groove. Their record sits at 38-52, placing them 11.5 games back in the National League Central and 11 games back in the Wild Card race. They don’t often find themselves as clear deadline sellers, having only once finished below .500 this century, which was way back in 2007. But barring a massive turnaround in the next three weeks, they will likely be selling this year, something that president of baseball operations John Mozeliak essentially admitted earlier today.

Thankfully, there are some factors that could make this a particularly fruitful sell-off for the Cards. For one thing, the expanded playoffs and some wide-open divisional races are seemingly making this year a seller’s market. The Cards have a number of controllable position players they could move without significantly hurting their chances of returning to contention next year. They also have some impending free agents of note, such as Jordan Montgomery and Jack Flaherty.

Another impending free agent who should be garnering plenty of interest is reliever Jordan Hicks. The fireballer has been in the club’s bullpen since 2018, though Tommy John surgery in June 2019 prevented him from appearing in the latter half of that campaign or at any point in 2020.

His performance in his career has been unusual in that he has elite velocity, averaging over 100 mph on his fastball in his career. But somehow, that hasn’t translated into the huge strikeout numbers one would expect. By the end of the 2022 season, he had tossed 177 2/3 innings over 147 outings, striking out 23% of batters faced. That strikeout rate is right around league average, whereas other gas-spewing pitchers like Aroldis Chapman, Edwin Díaz or Félix Bautista often run their rates into the 40s or even the 50s.

Here in 2023, Hicks seems to have finally unlocked a new level in that department. He’s thrown 36 2/3 innings over 36 outings, punching out 32.9% of batters faced. His 13.8% walk rate is still on the high side but that’s right in line with his previous work and not too dissimilar from other late-inning arms. Chapman has walked 12.4% of batters faced in his career. Josh Hader is at 10.2% in his career and 11.3% since the start of 2020. Hicks is getting fewer ground balls than in previous seasons but his 53.5% rate this year is still well above league average.

The new strikeout rate has helped to lower his ERA to 3.93, compared to 4.84 last year and 5.40 the year before. He likely deserves even better, as his .357 batting average on balls in play is above league average and above his marks in previous seasons. His 3.47 SIERA and 3.12 FIP suggest he could get even better results if that BABIP normalizes going forward. He’s also produced these results while ascending into the closer’s role with Ryan Helsley on the injured list, with Hicks racking up seven saves in the past four weeks.

One thing that might be fuelling this breakout is a change in his pitch mix. He has primarily been a sinker-slider guy in his career, with 90% of his offerings being one of those two pitches, while also occasionally mixing in changeups, cutters and four-seam fastballs. According to Statcast, Hicks had thrown only 20 four-seamers prior to his surgery and then just nine over the past two seasons. He has thrown 73 of them this year. He’s also added a sweeper, throwing 150 of those this year, with opponents batting just .107 and slugging just .250 in plate appearances ending with that offering. The sweeper seems to pair well with his sinker/two-seamer, as shown in this tweet from Rob Friedman, aka the Pitching Ninja.

This is still just a few months of results we’re talking about, but the change in repertoire seems to point to a legitimate progression as opposed to just small sample noise. The Cardinals would surely have preferred to be in contention right now, using this new and improved version of Hicks to bolster their chances in a postseason race. But they will at least have the opportunity to squeeze some extra future value out of it via trade prior to the upcoming deadline. If he had discovered this new level of performance next year instead, they may not have benefited from it at all.

The timing is also potentially significant for Hicks personally, allowing him to go into the open market with a strong platform season if he can maintain it for the next few months. He cracked the Cardinals’ Opening Day roster in 2018 when he was just 21 years old and has never been optioned, putting him on pace to finish this season with exactly six seasons of service time and thus qualify for free agency just after he turns 27 years old in September. Relief pitchers don’t usually secure very long deals in free agency. No one has ever topped five years and contracts of that length are quite rare.

Some clubs may be skeptical given that he has a longer track record of being just okay and will have a much smaller span of time with the improvements. But we have seen clubs take significant gambles on pitchers based on limited samples before. Drew Pomeranz was a starter for much of his career but transitioned into more of a relief role in 2018 and 2019 before getting a four-year, $34MM deal from the Padres. It was a similar story for Liam Hendriks, who had been closing for two years, one of which was the shortened 2020 season, before landing a $54MM guarantee over three years from the White Sox. Robert Suarez spent most of his career in Japan before parlaying one strong MLB season into $46MM over five years.

That’s not to say that Hicks is a lock to secure a contract similar to those, especially since few of those deals have worked out well for the signing clubs, which may lead to more hesitancy in the relief market this offseason. But clubs have shown they are willing to bet on a small sample of improved results when they have reason to believe it could be carried forward. Those three pitchers were all in their early 30s when they secured their deals, whereas Hicks will be significantly younger.

Hicks has always had the velocity and now seems to be figuring out how it deploy it in a more effective way than he ever has before. With his quick rise through the minor leagues and time missed due to his surgery, he’ll be hitting the open market at an usually young age for a relief pitcher and with very few total innings on his arm. For now, he should be able to help the Cardinals recoup some extra value at the deadline before helping himself cash in this winter.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Mozeliak: Cardinals’ Deadline Focus Will Be On 2024 Club

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The Cardinals came into 2023 with hopes of contending, as they generally always do. The club has finished below .500 just once this century, back in 2007, and has qualified for the playoff in each of the past four seasons. Unfortunately, things haven’t been trending their way this year, with the Cards currently 38-52 and in last place in the National League Central.

A few weeks ago, the club’s president of baseball operations John Mozeliak spoke about how the club hadn’t yet made any concrete decisions about how to approach the deadline. But those plans seem to have firmed up recently, with Mozeliak speaking with Martin Kilcoyne of The Kilcoyne Conversation at Scoops with Danny Mac, discussing how the club is planning to make moves aimed at improving the 2024 roster.

Mozeliak says that the club won’t be “waving the white flag” but admits that “all decisions or all moves we do really will try to set us up for next year.” He goes on to say that they won’t just give players away but that they “want to get some return that’s going to help us for 2024 and that’s going to be, really, our focus as we enter the trading period.” He also admitted that there’s not really such a thing as a player who’s “untouchable” because anything can happen, but also states that “The fact is we hope we can keep our core together and then, you know, supplement it properly.”

To hear him take such a stance is hardly surprising, given their current place in the standings. They are 11.5 games out in the division and 11 back of the final Wild Card spot right now. FanGraphs currently pegs their playoff odds at just 6.3%. A hot streak between the All-Star break and the deadline could change those odds, but it seems the club is accepting that their best path forward is to make decisions with their eyes set on a fresh start next year.

The club could have also considered committing to a more significant rebuild with their sights set even further into the future, but there are reasons why it makes sense to take a more measured approach. The club came into this year with a strong roster than many predicted to win the division and that could easily be true of 2024 as well, especially since every position player on the club is still under club control for next year. The pitching staff is a different story, but some modest selling could still leave the club with a solid core for next year.

There’s also the fact that this year’s deadline seems to be lining up to be a seller’s market, with so many clubs still hovering near contention thanks to the expanded postseason and some weaker divisions. By staking out some space in the seller column, the Cards could quickly add some controllable talent to the system and then figure out how to proceed in the offseason.

In terms of impending free agents, the club will have plenty of players to shop around. Jordan Montgomery and Jack Flaherty are each slated to reach free agency this winter and should garner plenty of interest, especially with pitching always in demand around the league. Montgomery has a long track record of solid production and is having arguably his best season to date, with a 3.23 ERA that would be a personal best. Flaherty’s 4.27 ERA isn’t quite as impressive but he’s shown better upside in the past, including his 2.75 ERA in 2019. Relievers Chris Stratton and Jordan Hicks are each having nice seasons and could also be flipped before they reach free agency in a few months’ time.

Since those aforementioned players are all rentals, moving them wouldn’t hurt the 2024 club in any way. The Cards could potentially hang onto to them and issue them qualifying offers in order to receive compensatory draft picks, though Mozeliak admitted that “Our hope is we can get more than just the pick, and so that will be what we try to do.” That also tracks with the club’s aims of continuing to compete in 2024, as they could recoup players close to helping at the major league level, whereas a draft pick wouldn’t be likely to help the club until years down the line.

There’s also an argument to be made that the Cards could trade some controllable position players in a way that helps the 2024 club. They have plenty of outfielders in the mix, including Lars Nootbaar, Dylan Carlson, Jordan Walker, Tyler O’Neill and Alec Burleson, while infielders like Tommy Edman and Brendan Donovan have also been pushed into the outfield of late as Paul DeJong and Nolan Gorman have regularly taken the middle infield spots. One of the club’s top prospects, shortstop Masyn Winn, is in Triple-A this year and should be due for a major league audition at some point. Other depth options on the 40-man include Juan Yepez, Moises Gomez and Richie Palacios. The club also has Iván Herrera, a valuable catching prospect, who is currently blocked by Willson Contreras.

That’s quite the crowded picture and the Cards could perhaps decide which players they like best while moving a few others while still having a solid group overall. However, those kinds of decisions aren’t always easy to make, as the club has seen in recent years. Mozeliak admitted that the club made mistakes in letting go of players like Randy Arozarena and Adolis García while sticking with guys like O’Neill and Harrison Bader.

It’s easy to make those kinds of calls with the benefit of hindsight, but the Cards may have to make some tough decisions again, especially in order to improve the pitching staff. With Montgomery, Flaherty, Hicks and Stratton on their way to free agency and Adam Wainwright set to retire, there are plenty of holes to fill on the pitching side of things. Some of the remaining options are also questionable, with Mozeliak admitting the club didn’t get what they expected from pitchers like Dakota Hudson and Matthew Liberatore this year.

As for the coaching, Mozeliak doesn’t lay any blame at the foot of second-year manager Oli Marmol. “I don’t think the coaches have any fault in this,” Mozeliak said. “They are handed the players. Unfortunately, it didn’t work. But I think Oli and his group do a really good job. They work really hard. And, you know, they continue to do that. But their level of frustration is probably as real as the fan base.” Marmol’s first season at the helm resulted in a 93-69 record and a division title. The results haven’t been there this season but it seems like he’s likely to get another shot with a different roster next year.

Exactly how the Cards navigate the deadline will undoubtedly be influenced by what kind of conversations they have with other clubs in the weeks to come, but it seems like they have settled on a broad plan of making whatever decisions will help the club next year. That likely means impending free agents will be available and perhaps other players as well. This year’s trade deadline is August 1, now less than three weeks away.

MLB Trade Rumors Podcast: Top Deadline Trade Candidates, Ohtani Trade Potential and the Slipping Rays

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The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Anthony Franco of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss:

Plus, we answer your questions, including:

  • With the Cardinals being sellers for the first time in 20 years, who do you anticipate to be moved? And what is realistic return with an eye on 2024 contention? (23:30)
  • Who trades for Joey Bart? (26:00)
  • Are the Yankees buyers or sellers? And what, if anything, do you see them doing in either position? (28:40)

Check out our past episodes!

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