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Packy Naughton To Undergo Season-Ending Surgery

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Cardinals left-hander Packy Naughton will undergo season-ending surgery on June 26th, with Lynn Worthy of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch and Joe Trezza of MLB.com relaying word from manager Oli Marmol.

The specific details of Naughton’s surgery aren’t publicly known and it’s possible those details won’t be fully available until the procedure actually begins, but it was reported last week that Tommy John was on the table. Jeff Jones of the Belleville News-Democrat adds that Naughton was visiting Dr. Keith Meister, who has performed some internal brace procedures, the TJS alternative that could also be an option.

Either way, it seems likely that Naughton is set to miss significant time. Even in the case of the internal brace procedure, a recovery period of roughly a year is required, which would likely wipe out the first half of Naughton’s 2024 season. The full Tommy John surgery, on the other hand, usually pushes into the range of 14 to 18 months, which could put his entire 2024 season in jeopardy.

That’s surely an extremely frustrating development for both Naughton and the Cards. The southpaw had tossed 32 innings last year with a 4.78 ERA but strong peripherals. He struck out 22% of opponents while walking just 5% and getting grounders at a 49.5% clip. His ERA might have been inflated by a .364 batting average on balls in play, leading to kinder marks from other metrics such as a 3.14 FIP and 3.26 SIERA.

He was looking to build off that platform here in 2023 but landed on the injured list after just four appearances due to a left forearm strain. He seemed on track to return when he began a rehab assignment a week ago but was still experiencing pain, leading to further examination and today’s news about the necessary surgery. That means that 2023 will be an almost entirely lost season with 2024 hanging in the balance as well.

Naughton is already on the 60-day injured list and will stay there for the rest of the season. However, there’s no injured list in the offseason so he will have to be added back to the roster at that point.

Central Notes: Cardinals, Yarbrough, Pirates

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The Cardinals could activate outfielder Lars Nootbaar from the injured list as soon as tomorrow, according to John Denton of MLB.com. Nootbaar, who has been on the IL since the beginning of the month with a lower back contusion, has slashed .266/.380/.390 in 184 plate appearances for St. Louis this season, good for a 118 wRC+.

As discussed by Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch, Nootbaar’s return will create something of a conundrum for Cardinals manager Oli Marmol, who has moved Tommy Edman from shortstop to the outfield in recent weeks, a change the switch-hitter has taken well to. Goold suggests that the return of Nootbaar, who can play quality defense in all three outfield spots, would give Marmol the option to shift Edman back to the infield, with Nootbaar taking over center and Nolan Gorman spending most days at DH. Otherwise, Marmol could leave Edman in the center and use Nootbaar and Dylan Carlson in the corners while allowing Jordan Walker, who has struggled to adjust to outfield work after spending most of his minor league career on the infield dirt, to DH.

Whatever defensive alignment the Cardinals end up with, Nootbaar’s return figures to help boost the club as it struggles to stay relevant in the NL Central. Despite an abysmal 29-43 record leaving them 8.5 games back in the NL Central, St. Louis still has a 12.1% chance to make the playoffs, per Fangraphs, thanks to their weak competition in the division.

More from around the Central divisions…

  • Royals left-hander Ryan Yarbrough is set to begin a rehab assignment in the Arizona Complex League tomorrow, per a club announcement. That’s fantastic news for not only fans in Kansas City, but all around baseball considering the circumstances of Yarbrough’s injury. The lefty was placed on the injured list in early May with multiple head fractures after being struck in the face by a line drive off the bat of Oakland slugger Ryan Noda. Prior to his injury, Yarbrough had struggled badly across ten appearances with the Royals, posting a 6.15 ERA and 5.17 FIP in 26 1/3 innings of work.
  • Following today’s news that the Pirates are poised to promote 2021 first overall pick Henry Davis to the majors tomorrow, manager Derek Shelton told reporters, including MLB.com’s Justice delos Santos, that the club’s current catching tandem of Austin Hedges and Jason Delay would remain on the roster. With Pittsburgh planning to carry three catchers as Davis breaks into the majors, it’s worth wondering how the club plans to use Davis. While the youngster was drafted and has been used primarily as a catcher, he’s also started 15 games in right field over the past two seasons while mixing in starts at DH. Of course, the DH slot in Pittsburgh is largely occupied by Andrew McCutchen, leaving right field as Davis’s most likely home on days where Hedges or Delay start behind the plate. Connor Joe and Josh Palacios are currently manning right for the Pirates in a timeshare.

Cardinals Acquire Richie Palacios From Guardians

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The Cardinals announced that they have acquired infielder/outfielder Richie Palacios from the Guardians in exchange for cash considerations. Palacios, who was designated for assignment by the Guards on the weekend, has been optioned to Triple-A Memphis. In order to open a spot on the 40-man roster, outfielder Tyler O’Neill has been transferred to the 60-day injured list.

Palacios, 26, was originally selected by Cleveland in the third round of the 2018 draft. He’s generally been considered a bat-first utility player and hit his way up the minor league ladder. He was added to the club’s 40-man roster in November of 2021 to prevent him from being selected in the Rule 5 draft.

He spent last year as a frequently-optioned depth piece, getting into 54 major league contests. But in his 123 plate appearances, he hit just .232/.293/.286 for a wRC+ of 65. He continued his strong offensive work whenever in the minors, finishing the year with a line of .279/.371/.458 in Triple-A and a 121 wRC+. However, this year, he’s slumped badly while sticking in the minors. He currently sports a line of .217/.351/.318 through 269 Triple-A plate appearances on the year.

Palacios has been bounced around the field a bit in his career to get his bat into lineups. He’s played second base and left field in the majors and also the other outfield positions in the minors. But since his bat is considered his best trait, his struggles this year got him bounced from the Guards to the Cards. The Cardinals have a penchant for developing versatile position players and will now try to get the most out of Palacios. He still has options and less than a year of service time, allowing him to serve as an optionable and versatile depth piece for the foreseeable future.

As for O’Neill, he was placed on the injured list in early May due to a lower back strain. There’s been nothing to indicate he’s particularly close to a return since he’s yet to start a rehab assignment that would be required before rejoining the big league club. That makes this transaction a mere formality as the 60-day count goes from his initial IL placement, not today’s transfer. He’ll be eligible to be reinstated in early July if he makes significant progress in the next two weeks.

Central Notes: Contreras, Naughton, Buxton

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The Pirates recently moved right-hander Roansy Contreras to the bullpen, but he’s hoping to follow in the footsteps of his teammate Mitch Keller and return to the rotation stronger than ever. “I want to find a point where I feel comfortable again,” Contreras said, with major league coach Stephen Morales translating to Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. “I’m going to do my best out of the bullpen, but I feel like I belong in the starting rotation. I’m going to do my best to get back to it.”

Keller was a second-round pick and top 100 prospect but struggled in his first few seasons in the majors, having a 6.02 ERA by the end of 2021. Last year, he had a 6.61 ERA in the middle of May when he was moved to the bullpen. He made just a couple of relief appearances before being put back in the rotation and eventually posted a 3.22 ERA as a starter the rest of the way. He now has a 3.41 ERA for the Bucs here in 2023.

Contreras was also a top 100 guy on his way up through the minors and seemed to solidify himself last year when he posted a 3.79 ERA over 95 innings. However, he’s taken a step back here in 2023 with a 6.55 ERA in 11 starts and a couple of relief appearances. There’s probably a bit of bad luck in there, considering his .328 batting average on balls in play and 61.3% strand rate, but his 17.2% strikeout rate and 10.5% walk rate are both worse than last year’s marks of 21.1% and 9.6%.

The Pirates are barely above .500 at 34-32 but that’s enough for first place in the National League Central at the moment. Their current rotation consists of Keller, Rich Hill, Luis Ortiz, Johan Oviedo and the recently-recalled Osvaldo Bido. If Contreras could turn things around, it would be a huge help for their postseason push, especially with other options like Vince Velasquez, Mike Burrows and JT Brubaker out for the year. There would also be long-term benefits to the Bucs, since Contreras isn’t slated for free agency until after the 2028 season.

Some other notes from the Central divisions…

  • Cardinals left-hander Packy Naughton has been on the injured list for most of the season, making just four appearances in early April before a left forearm strain put him on the shelf. He recently began a rehab assignment but was still experiencing pain. Now he’s traveling to Texas to get a second opinion and it seems season-ending surgery is on the table, per John Denton of MLB.com. Denton relays that Tommy John surgery could still be avoided but it’s nonetheless an ominous development for Naughton and the Cards that it’s being considered, particularly at this time of year. Given the typical recovery period of 14 to 18 months, Tommy John surgery would not only wipe out the rest of 2023 for Naughton but also put his 2024 in jeopardy. In 59 2/3 career innings, he has a 4.98 ERA.
  • The Twins reinstated Byron Buxton from the injured list today, optioning outfielder Trevor Larnach in a corresponding move. Buxton has long been one of the most talented athletes in the sport but has struggled to stay healthy. He managed to play 140 games in 2017 but hasn’t topped 92 contests in any subsequent season. The Twins have kept him exclusively in the designated hitter slot this year in an attempt to reduce the chance of injury. That plan hit a snag a couple weeks ago when Buxton took a pitch from Tanner Bibee in the ribs. He landed on the IL due to a contusion but is now back after a brief absence. He’s hitting .220/.325/.445 so far this year for a 114 wRC+, stealing six bases in 50 games.

MLBTR Trade Rumors Podcast: Stroman Lobbies for Extension, Mets’ Woes and Astros Seeking Bats

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The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Anthony Franco of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss:

  • Marcus Stroman lobbying for an extension with the Cubs (1:40)
  • The struggling Mets lose Pete Alonso to the injured list (6:00)
  • The Astros seem more focused on getting bats than arms at the deadline (10:05)

Plus, we answer your questions, including:

  • Other than a pure prospect, I don’t see a difference making middle of the order bat being available at the trade deadline. Be it a 2 month rental or even someone with 1 or 2 years of control. Do you? If so please tell me about him. (14:45)
  • Could this be the year in which the O’s get a starter? They’re notoriously cheap when it comes to big contracts or giving up the farm, but I can’t see any team going deep into the playoffs with Kyle Gibson or Tyler Wells as their Game One ace. If so, who are the top candidates, knowing that the O’s will have to compete on the market with any team with a winning percentage over .500? (19:45)
  • The Cardinals are full of young players that may not be stars in the making, but probably get a fairer shot at regular playing time on many other rosters to prove their worth. If the Cards ultimately become sellers at the deadline, do they really get much value in moving guys like Iván Herrera, Juan Yepez, Luken Baker, Moises Gomez, and/or one of their outfielders? Or are they content to have that depth if the returns are minimal? (22:35)

Check out our past episodes!

Cardinals Place Ryan Helsley On Injured List

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The Cardinals announced Monday that they’ve placed right-handed reliever Ryan Helsley on the 15-day injured list due a strained right forearm. Right-hander Jake Woodford has been recalled from Triple-A Memphis in his place. Helsley’s placement on the injured list is retroactive to June 10.

Helsley hasn’t pitched in a game since the middle of last week, despite the Cardinals playing in a pair of close games since then. Giovanny Gallegos received the team’s most recent save opportunity, last Friday, when the bullpen was at full strength following an off-day. Helsley’s dayslong absence from game activity now makes a bit more sense. He’ll be sidelined through at least the 25th of the month, though the team has yet to provide any real detail regarding his prognosis or potential recovery window.

Losing Helsley is a blow to an already reeling Cardinals club. While he hasn’t been quite as dominant as he was in 2022, the 28-year-old righty currently boasts a 3.24 ERA, 32% strikeout rate, 10.7% walk rate, a 43.1% grounder rate and seven saved in 25 innings out of the ’pen. Since the calendar flipped to May, Helsley was carrying a 2.40 ERA and a 20-to-6 K/BB ratio in 15 frames.

With Helsley sidelined for at least the foreseeable future, save opportunities will likely fall to the aforementioned Gallegos. The pair had been tied in saves prior to Gallegos notching his eighth of the season Friday when Helsley was unavailable. With Gallegos likely assuming full-time closing duties, setup work will fall to a combination of Andre Pallante, Jordan Hicks, Drew VerHagen and Genesis Cabrera. VerHagen’s seven holds currently lead the Cardinals, though he’s surrendered runs in three of his past four outings.

Woodford, 26, has pitched primarily out of the rotation for the Cards in 2023 but struggled to a 5.40 ERA in 30 innings. The right-hander’s 13% strikeout rate is among the lowest in MLB, but he has a strong 8% walk rate and 53.8% ground-ball rate as well. He’ll likely give the Cardinals some bullpen depth for the time being, as the rotation is still five-deep even after moving veteran Steven Matz to the bullpen. Adam Wainwright, Jordan Montgomery, Miles Mikolas, Jack Flaherty and Matthew Liberatore figure to continue starting for St. Louis as the 27-39 Cardinals try to claw out of the NL Central cellar.

Cardinals Outright Tres Barrera

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Catcher Tres Barrera has accepted an outright assignment to Triple-A Memphis, reports Jeff Jones of the Belleville News-Democrat. That indicates he cleared waivers after being cut from the roster last week.

Barrera, 28, was signed by the Cards to a minor league deal in the offseason. He began the year with Memphis and hit .255/.314/.532 through early May for a wRC+ of 103. He got called up to the big leagues around the same time that the club made the strange decision to shift Willson Contreras away from catching. Barrera was essentially the backup to Andrew Knizner at that time, though the club quickly returned Contreras to catching duty less than a week after stopping him from doing so. Barrera got into six games but only received two plate appearances before being placed on waivers.

Prior to joining the Cardinals, he had spent his entire career with the Nationals. He had a .231/.317/.315 batting line in the majors coming into this year but his minor league slash line is a stronger .250/.330/.392. He’s generally considered a solid defender, having positive framing marks from both FanGraphs and Baseball Prospectus.

Barrera had a previous career outright, which gave him the right to reject this assignment and elect free agency. Instead, he’ll report to Memphis and try to work his way back to the big leagues. He could be called up if either Contreras or Knizner need to miss any time, though prospect Iván Herrera is hitting .301/.429/.545 in Triple-A this year.

Cardinals Notes: Edman, Outfield, Naughton

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Even after outfielder Dylan Carlson was activated from the injured list yesterday, the Cardinals have opted to leave Tommy Edman in center field, where he seems poised to stick for the foreseeable future, as noted by Katie Woo of The Athletic. Manager Oliver Marmol expressed support of Edman’s glovework in center field, telling reporters (including Woo) that the switch-hitter “has done a really nice job in center”, calling his work in the outfield “darn impressive.”

Edman has paired his quality glove with roughly league average offense so far in 2023, as the 28-year-old utility man has slashed .246/.306/.417 in 221 plate appearances this season, good for a wRC+ of 98. While that figure represents a definitive step back from Edman’s .265/.324/.400 slash line in 2022 (108 wRC+), it’s worth noting that Edman’s .265 BABIP so far this season would be the lowest of his career over a full season, far below his career .303 figure.

While shifting a Gold Glove middle infielder to the outfield is a risky move when it comes to preserving infield defense, the Cardinals are fortunate to have quality options in Nolan Gorman, Brendan Donovan, and Paul DeJong up the middle, with veteran superstars Nolan Arenado and Paul Goldschmidt flanking them at the infield corners. With Edman sticking in center, Carlson has been used in Right Field since his return, with youngsters Jordan Walker and Alec Burleson patrolling left.

Of course, the club will have to revisit Edman’s hold on center field as more injured outfielders, such as Tyler O’Neill and Lars Nootbaar, return from the IL. That being said, it seems that any such decision won’t be coming any time soon, as O’Neill saw his rehab paused due to continued back discomfort at the end of May. Meanwhile, Nootbaar has only just begun to hit off a tee after going on the IL with back spasms last week per MLB.com’s John Denton.

In more positive injury news, Denton notes that left-hander Packy Naughton, who has been on the IL with a forearm strain since early April, is poised to make a Triple-A rehab appearance tomorrow. Prior to his injury, Naughton impressed with five scoreless innings where he allowed just two hits and a walk while striking out five, good for a 1.88 FIP. Upon his return, Naughton could factor into the St. Louis bullpen alongside the likes of Andre Pallante and Genesis Cabrera as the club relies on Ryan Helsley, Jordan Hicks, and Giovanny Gallegos in the late innings.

Best Deadline Rental Returns In Recent History, #8: Nationals Get Everyday Outfielder For Jon Lester

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With the trade deadline now less than two months away, we at MLBTR are setting our sights backwards for a bit to highlight past trades. With an arbitrary cutoff point of 2017, we’re counting down the top 10 returns that a team got when selling a rental player in recent years. We’ve already published some honorable mentions, the #10 entry and the #9 deal. If you disagree with our rankings, let us know! It’s all part of the subjective fun! Onto #8…

The Nationals were consistently competitive in the second decade of the millennium, finishing with a winning record in each season from 2012 to 2019. They qualified for the postseason five times in that stretch and won the World Series in that final year.

The next decade got off to a rough start, as they went 26-34 in the pandemic-shortened 2020 campaign. Nonetheless, they went into 2021 with some excellent players still on the roster, including Juan Soto, Trea Turner and Max Scherzer. They fortified that group by trading for Josh Bell and giving one-year deals to Brad Hand, Kyle Schwarber and Jon Lester.

Unfortunately, they couldn’t get things back on track that season and had a record of 48-55 on July 30. They were in fourth place in the National League East, seven games behind the Mets with Philadelphia and Atlanta between them. They were even further back in the Wild Card race, 11 games, as the West featured three excellent clubs in the Giants, Dodgers and Padres.

That put them into sell mode at the deadline and they did plenty of it. Each of Turner, Scherzer, Hand and Schwarber were traded, as were Yan Gomes, Josh Harrison and Daniel Hudson. The deal that sent Scherzer and Turner to the Dodgers technically wasn’t a rental trade, as Turner had another year of control, so we didn’t consider it for this series. Those other deals mostly yielded players that are still in the minors as of this writing. But in addition to all those, the Nats also made a trade that sent Lester to the Cardinals in exchange for MLB-ready outfielder Lane Thomas, who we will get to in a moment.

Jon Lester | John Hefti-USA TODAY SportsLester had already had a very impressive career that began back in 2006. He had many great seasons with the Red Sox and Cubs and already had three World Series rings. In 2021, he was 37 years old and had naturally fallen off a bit from his peak. His ERA went from 3.32 in 2018 to 4.46 the year after and 5.16 in the shortened 2020 season.

The Nats felt he still had something left in the tank and signed him to a one-year, $5MM deal. Lester made 16 starts for the Nationals with a 5.02 ERA. His 14.9% strikeout rate was a noticeable drop from his peak years but his 8.5% walk rate and 42% ground ball rate were around league average. In short, he was a back-of-the-rotation starter, which is just what the Cardinals needed.

Their rotation had been sliced up by injuries to Jack Flaherty, Miles Mikolas, Carlos Martínez, Dakota Hudson and others. Despite that, they were hovering above .500 and in the playoff race. They didn’t go after aces that summer, just guys who could take the ball and give them a chance, figuring that a modest stabilization of the rotation could be enough for them to improve their fortunes. They grabbed 36-year-old Wade LeBlanc, 38-year-old J.A. Happ and the 37-year-old Lester to fortify things alongside 39-year-old Adam Wainwright.

The gambit would pay off for St. Louis as they finished strong. Lester did his job by making 12 starts with a 4.36 ERA. The Cards ended the season at 90-72, securing a playoff spot, though they lost the Wild Card game to the Dodgers.

For the Nats, they weren’t able to make much use of Lester’s services, so it was a logical move to swap him out for a promising outfielder in Thomas. He had made his major league debut with the Cardinals in 2019 and hit an excellent .316/.409/.684 in 44 plate appearances but was nonetheless frequently optioned to the minors. Despite his strong results, he was squeezed out of the St. Louis outfield that also featured the likes of Dexter Fowler, Marcell Ozuna, Harrison Bader, José Martínez, Tyler O’Neill and others.

Thomas would continue to get sporadic playing time in the next couple of seasons. He only got into 18 games in the 2020 season and then 32 more in 2021 prior to the trade. He struggled badly in those two cups of coffee, hitting just .107/.235/.179, but continued showing his promise in the minors. He was slashing .265/.339/.451 in Triple-A at the time of the deal.

The Nationals likely hoped that Thomas would thrive with a better path to playing time, and that has largely proven to be true. He was briefly kept in Triple-A after the deal but was called up after just three games. He hit .270/.364/.489 at the major league level in the final few weeks of 2021, launching seven home runs and stealing four bases in just 45 games.

2022 saw him finally get the everyday gig he didn’t get in St. Louis, as he tallied 548 plate appearances in 146 games. It wasn’t a spectacular showing, but he was serviceable. He hit 17 home runs and stole eight bases, though his 7.5% walk rate and 24.1% strikeout rate were both slightly worse than average. His .241/.301/.404 batting line amounted to a wRC+ of 96 and he was worth 1.1 wins above replacement on the year according to FanGraphs, 1.6 at Baseball Reference.

Things are going better here in 2023, as he already has nine home runs and five steals. His plate discipline numbers are fairly similar, but he’s hitting .281/.336/.455 for a wRC+ of 114. His .350 batting average on balls in play is much higher than last year’s .291, but that can’t be entirely dismissed as just good luck since his hard hit rate, barrel rate and average exit velocity have also increased compared to a year ago.

Defensively, Thomas isn’t considered an excellent fielder, which is surprising considering his 95th percentile sprint speed. Nonetheless, he’s capable of holding his own at any of the three outfield slots, which is useful for a rebuilding club that is rotating through various players on a regular basis. He qualified for arbitration for the first time in the most recent offseason and is making $2.2MM this year. He’ll be eligible for two more passes before he’s slated for free agency after 2025.

Whether the Nats can come out of their rebuild in that time frame remains to be seen. But even in the event that they linger outside of contention for a while, they could always market Thomas and his remaining control to other clubs around the league.

In the end, both teams got what they wanted out of the deal. The Cards firmed up their rotation as hoped and were able to make a late charge and earn a playoff spot, while the Nats turned a couple months of a veteran pitcher into four and a half years of a solid outfielder who has stepped into an everyday role.

Images courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Big Hype Prospects: Cowser, De La Cruz, Rushing, Vientos, Keith

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Last week’s lead Big Hype Prospect, Andrew Abbott, is already on his way to the Majors. Let’s see if we can pull the trick two weeks in a row.

Five Big Hype Prospects

Colton Cowser, 23, OF, BAL (AAA)
186 PA, 8 HR 5 SB, .347/.484/.590

When he hit the injured list with a quad injury in mid-May, Cowser was playing his way into Major League consideration. Cowser returned to action over the weekend, going a combined 4-for-5 with two walks, a double, and a homer. He’s produced multiple hits in 14 of 39 games this season. Cedric Mullins is currently sidelined with a groin injury. Although replacement center fielder Aaron Hicks has played well in his absence, underlying metrics suggest Hicks is toast. The club also has a partial opening at designated hitter which can be filled on a more permanent basis by Anthony Santander. Cowser has the athletic ability to stick in center field, but he could be a truly plus defender in the outfield corners. There’s concern he’ll struggle against left-handed pitching early in his career. At worst case, he looks like a high-probability strong-side platoon hitter. That’s why he’s creeping towards Top 10 prospect status on many lists.

Elly De La Cruz, 21, 3B/SS, CIN (AAA)
186 PA, 12 HR, 11 SB, .297/.398/.633

My recent fantasy chat included at least a half dozen questions about when De La Cruz will debut. I don’t have any special insight into the Reds thought process. The decision is complex, made even more so due to new service time and draft pick compensation rules. Role playing as the Reds, there is a certain attractiveness to following the Corbin Carroll model. As you’ll recall, Carroll debuted in late-August and performed decently in his debut. He’s now on pace to handily win the NL Rookie of the Year Award. The timing of his initial promotion ensured he would be club-controlled through 2028 (a contract extension has since further extended the Diamondbacks control). A later debut for De La Cruz would ensure he’s under control through at least 2029.

Were it up to me, he would be in the Majors tomorrow. Of all prospects in the minors, he has the least to prove. To my eyes, he’s the most physically impressive prospect since Fernando Tatis Jr. Among his most impressive traits are a 93.4-mph average exit velocity with a 118.8-mph max EV. This season, Matt Olson leads the league with a hardest-hit ball of 118.6-mph.

Dalton Rushing, 22, C, LAD (A+)
188 PA, 7 HR, 1 SB, .261/.431/.507

Rushing has followed up a wild 2022 debut with an impressive, discipline-forward performance. Defensive reviews of the left-handed hitting catching prospect skew vaguely negative. He’s a high-effort receiver who will need to work hard to polish his game. Since his bat is so advanced, a move to a corner position might be required so he can progress through the minors at a more rapid pace. The Dodgers are blessed with a number of highly regarded catchers. They can certainly afford for Rushing to play elsewhere. It might be advisable to get Rushing’s bat in Double-A before he becomes too accustomed to a 19.7 percent walk rate. Discipline is an excellent trait to possess, but it needs to be coupled with selective aggression within the strike zone.

For clarity the speculation about Rushing moving off catcher is my own based on the Dodgers inventory. I’ve not seen a scout suggest it’s necessary.

Mark Vientos, 23, DH, NYM (MLB)
(AAA) 166 PA, 13 HR, .333/.416/.688

Vientos possesses (and gets to) incredibly consistent power in-game. Although he’s only hitting .188/.206/.281 in 34 plate appearances, his exit velocities (96.1-mph average, 112.8-mph max) tell another story. Among hitters with over 30 plate appearances, only Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton have tallied higher average exit velocities. While it’s in part a small sample fluke, Vientos did average 94.5-mph in Triple-A. The flaws in his game could limit his ceiling. In particular, he tends to make low-angle, pulled contact. He’s expected to be strikeout prone. He could find himself cast as a second-division starter or limited to facing certain pitcher types.

Colt Keith, 21, 3B, DET (AA)
217 PA, 10 HR, 1 SB, .321/.396/.563

Keith has built upon a breakout 2022 in High-A by doing much the same in Double-A. He’s even trimmed three points from his swinging strike rate. There’s risk he’ll continue to move down the defensive spectrum. He was being trained as a second baseman last season, but he’s made only three starts at the keystone in 2023. His bat is his carrying characteristic, fueled by plus discipline and a willingness to ambush mistakes in the zone. Wherever he winds up defensively, his bat looks like it will play in the Majors.

Three More

Bryan Woo, SEA (23): The Mariners opted to jump Woo straight from Double-A for his debut last Saturday. His performance in Double-A was masterful (44 innings, 2.05 ERA). His first start, not so much (2 IP, 7 H, 6 R). Scouts have long loved the life and shape of his fastball. His slider and changeup remain works in progress.

Chase Hampton, NYY (21): One of the top-performing pitching prospects in the minors, Hampton is beginning to draw attention from scouts. His mid-90s fastball reportedly tunnels well with a plus slider and curve. As with many young power pitchers, his changeup lags behind his other offerings. Hampton has an 18.8 percent swinging strike rate in High-A.

Luken Baker, STL (26): A former second-round draft pick, Baker experienced a breakthrough in Triple-A this season, bashing 18 home runs in 244 plate appearances. He produced a 92.8-mph average and 113.5-mph max EV. Baker made his debut as the designated hitter on Sunday.

Did I miss a detail or nuance? DM me on Twitter @BaseballATeam to suggest corrections.

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