Rangers’ Jose Leclerc, Chris Martin Drawing Interest
It wasn’t long ago that the Rangers looked as if they were likely to buy at the July 31 trade deadline, but the club’s now plummeting down the standings. Losers of seven straight, the Rangers sit 50-49 and six games back of a wild-card spot. The club could sell before the deadline as a result, with Mike Minor, Hunter Pence and Danny Santana representing a few of its players who have drawn reported interest of late. Add right-handed relievers Jose Leclerc and Chris Martin to the group, per Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News.
Between Leclerc and Martin, the former clearly boasts more trade value. Leclerc’s a season removed from performing like one of the game’s very best relievers, and he’s controllable for the foreseeable future at team-friendly prices. After Leclerc’s dominant 2018, the Rangers locked him up to a four-year, $14.75MM guarantee with club options for $6MM (2023) and $6.25MM (’24).
Although the 25-year-old Leclerc hasn’t been the force he was last season, he has largely moved past a dismal opening to 2019. Leclerc owned an ERA upward of 7.00 through April, causing the Rangers to remove him as their closer, but that number is now a more palatable 4.20. The hard-throwing Leclerc’s 3.44 FIP is far better, while his 13.6 K/9 and 4.4 BB/9 comprise an above-average K/BB ratio (3.09).
Martin – another high-velocity option – has been effective this season, but the 33-year-old is down to his last couple months of team control. He’s making $2.25MM to close out the two-year, $4MM contract he signed with the Rangers in 2018 after pitching in Japan over the previous two seasons.
Martin walked just over a batter per nine innings last year in his stateside return, but the figure has shrunk to a tiny .73 this season. He’s also striking out 9.97, helping Martin to the majors’ leading K/BB ratio (13.67) among qualified relievers. Martin has also posted an attractive ERA (3.16), though FIP (4.06) isn’t nearly as bullish. It’s also worth noting home runs have become an extreme problem for Martin, who has yielded 1.95 per nine after averaging a bit more than one over the same span in 2018. Oddly enough, Martin’s newfound HR troubles have come despite a massive groundball increase. He has induced them 49 percent of the time in 2019 after doing so at a 40.5 percent clip last season.
Rangers Place Shawn Kelley On IL, Select Rafael Montero, Designate Carlos Tocci
The Rangers announced an interesting trio of roster moves today. Veteran hurler Shawn Kelley has been moved to the 10-day injured list with what is described as biceps soreness.
The organization has selected the contract of righty Rafael Montero to fill the open active roster spot. To clear 40-man space, outfielder and former Rule 5 pick Carlos Tocci was designated for assignment.
Kelley, who has served as the Rangers’ closer, had increasingly seemed to be a trade candidate. The club adds that an “MRI showed no acute injury,” which seemingly suggests that Kelley isn’t facing a significant malady. But he’ll be sidelined through to the trade deadline, which will make it quite a bit more difficult for the Texas org to obtain a return sufficient to prompt a deal.
While he has had his ups and downs in recent years, Kelley has mostly been effective since the start of the 2018 campaign. He’s through 33 innings of 3.00 ERA ball this year, with 8.7 K/9 against 1.4 BB/9. With a $2.5MM salary this year and $2.5MM club option for 2020, Kelley’s contract is a fairly appealing one. The option also gives the Rangers an alternative to a trade.
The other moves are intriguing as well. Montero, 28, was once a prized hurler in the Mets organization but his fortunes were sinking even before he missed the ’18 season for Tommy John surgery. It remains to be seen whether he can resurrect his career, but the Rangers will be glad to have a look after watching Montero rack up a shiny 31:2 K/BB ratio in 18 1/3 minor-league innings.
As for Tocci, the 23-year-old was bumped from the 40-man after the organization put in a big effort to acquire him. The club carried him for all of the 2018 season to secure his rights through the Rule 5 draft, with Tocci struggling badly in limited playing time. Long considered a project with the bat, he’s slashing .246/.317/.312 in 360 Triple-A plate appearances this year.
Rays Have Looked Into Availability Of Hunter Pence
The Rays have checked in with the Rangers about the availability of outfielder/DH Hunter Pence, according to MLB.com’s Jon Morosi (via Twitter). The possibility of a match was first noted by MLB Network Radio’s Jim Duquette.
It’s not known how serious the talks are, but it does seem reasonable at this point to presume that Pence can be had. The Rangers had dabbled with pursuit of a postseason spot, but a slide has left the club staring up at an all-but-insurmountable 6.5-game gap from the second Wild Card spot. Given the circumstances, the Texas club is likely to dangle its pending free agents — if not a few other assets.
On the Rays’ side, the organization has seen its own postseason position erode steadily over the course of the season. It’s hard to imagine them catching the division-leading Yankees. It’ll take a big effort even to win a Wild Card spot. The two positions are held presently by the Indians and Athletics, with the Rays one game back and the Red Sox also posing a serious threat.
While the Tampa Bay team is obviously going to attempt to improve, it doesn’t have sufficient incentive to truly go for broke. That makes it hard to imagine the Rays giving up too much future value for rental assets. In the case of Pence, however, the acquisition cost will likely be rather manageable.
Pence has had a heck of a bounceback season at 36 years of age. He’s through 232 plate appearances of .290/.349/.581 hitting with 15 home runs. Statcast credits the veteran with a strong 43.1% hard-hit rate and 91.4 mph average exit velo, along with a 10.5 degree launch angle that’s about double his numbers in recent seasons. Pence has outperformed his contact quality, but not by a huge amount (.387 wOBA vs. .365 xwOBA).
That said, it’s still worth wondering whether Pence will be able to sustain this kind of outburst. And he hasn’t been trusted with many innings in the outfield after several seasons of somewhat poorly reviewed glovework. His contract is quite affordable — $2MM with $1.25MM in incentives — but there probably isn’t an abundance of demand. Unless National League teams see Pence as an option to slide back out to the field rather than functioning mostly as a DH, as he has in Texas, the primary pursuers would seem to come from the American League ranks. Yet most of the AL contenders have accounted for their bat-only plate appearances.
The fit with the Rays isn’t flawless, either, but it’s possible to imagine how Pence would fit on the roster. In terms of existing DH possibilities, the club has a rotating cast of possibilities on the right side but no clear bat-only piece. In terms of left-handed hitters, Ji-Man Choi has been increasingly crowded out by Nate Lowe at first base. Choi is a strong option when facing right-handed pitching but has struggled mightily in limited opportunities against southpaws. Pence, who has long maintained limited platoon splits and thrived both with and without the platoon advantage this year, could share time with Choi or replace him entirely as a primary DH.
Shawn Kelley Leaves Game With Biceps Tendon Soreness
Shawn Kelley will undergo an MRI after feeling what the Rangers described as right biceps tendon soreness during today’s game, manager Chris Woodward told MLB.com’s Alyson Footer and other reporters. Kelley left today’s game without throwing a pitch, as the veteran righty’s injury developed during his warmup pitches after being called out of the bullpen during the eighth inning. Over 33 innings this season, Kelley has posted a 3.00 ERA, 8.73 K/9, and a 6.4 K/BB rate, so he’ll be sorely missed in the Texas bullpen if an injured list placement is required.
Kelley’s loss could be doubly problematic for the Rangers since the 35-year-old profiled as a potential trade chip for a Texas club that seems to be falling out of contention. After surprising many by staying within striking distance of the wild card hunt, a seven-game losing streak has dropped Texas to a 50-49 record and a deficit of 6.5 games between the Rangers and the A’s for the last AL wild card berth. With such players as Mike Minor and Danny Santana already drawing trade interest from rival teams, Texas is running short on time to prove to the front office that it can contend.
Danny Santana Drawing Trade Interest
At the All-Star break, the Rangers sat on the brink of playoff contention, looking like a team that could be a surprise bet to conservatively buy at the trade deadline. However, any hopes of contention look to be quickly vanishing, and the front office may not have to debate whether to buy or sell. Sunday’s loss makes it seven straight games that the Rangers have dropped, leaving the club just a game over .500 and now in fourth place in the division.
Should the Rangers elect to trade off veteran pieces and regroup in hopes of building a future contender, utilityman Danny Santana may be among the most coveted Rangers on the market. Per J.P. Morosi of MLB Network, the 28-year-old has garnered interest from several teams around baseball and could fetch a nice return for Texas. Though no specific teams are named, it seems reasonable to assume that most every team in playoff position would welcome a versatile offensive weapon. As Morosi notes, that interest may be heightened in light of the Royals’ steep asking price for Whit Merrifield, who would be the most attractive utility player on the market if the Kansas City weren’t so reluctant to let him go.
Santana, for his part, emerged as one of a number of minor-league signings fueling the Rangers’ surprise first-half performance. Formerly of the Twins and Braves, Santana appeared to have peaked as a rookie, when he posted a .824 OPS as a 23-year-old. After that, Santana’s OPS never climbed above .606 in a single season—until now, with an evolving approach leading to an offensive breakout. After posting below-average exit velocity numbers in his first years in the Majors, balls have left Santana’s bat at an average of 91.1 mph this season, a mark that ranks in the 83rd percentile, per Baseball Savant. Not only is he hitting the ball harder, but he is elevating it, leading to a career-high 13 home runs and a .250 ISO. With average launch angles of 3.4˚ in 2017 and 9.1˚ last season, that number has jumped to 12.3˚ this season. He likewise ranks favorably in hard-hit rate and expected batting metrics, indicating that his current performance cannot be easily dismissed as a fluke.
To be sure, though, Santana has outperformed those expected batting marks to some degree: his actual wOBA (.381) is nearly 40 points higher than expected (.342) and the same can be said for his batting average (.320 actual versus .282 expected), perhaps in large part thanks to an astronomical .399 BABIP. In that respect, then, teams may be hesitant to pencil Santana in to match his first half production. Those who inquire on Santana are essentially looking at a half-season’s worth of production, making Santana a more risky investment than players with long track records of success. That may depress his value somewhat, but Rangers general manager Jon Daniels should still be able to get a solid return, especially considering that Santana received virtually no attention when he signed in Texas.
However, those expected marks are still more than enough to attract some interest from contending clubs. Santana’s ability to play across the diamond might lower the offensive bar somewhat; teams in the hunt for a World Series won’t acquire Santana with the expectation that he plays every day at one position—rather, he might be deployed a la Chris Taylor or Marwin Gonzalez, hunting favorable matchups and spelling injured or resting regulars.
Santana has appeared at six different positions for the Rangers this season, providing passable (if unspectacular) defense. If defensive metrics like DRS and UZR are to be believed, Santana fits best as a middle infielder, largely grading out below average in the outfield. However, that doesn’t mean that he can’t provide value as an outfielder—giving his manager another option is valuable in and of itself, and Santana doesn’t have to play any one position exceptionally as long as he can play several capably. He’s also stolen 12 bases at a roughly 70% clip, which is an added bonus for Santana’s skillset.
Of course, money is always of interest in trade discussions, and Santana’s value only grows from a financial perspective. Agreeing to a minor-league deal with the Rangers prior to the season, his salary comes in at the league minimum, meaning that interested teams will owe essentially negligible money to Santana, who is controllable through 2021. His combination of affordability and the potential for long-term value—in addition to on-field performance—should make him an attractive candidate for plenty of teams between now and July 31. As Rangers position-players go, Santana may be the most valuable one who is likely to be dealt.
Rangers Monitoring Mazara In Midst Of Recent Slump
- In other news concerning a concerned manager, the Rangers are troubled by the recent slump of Nomar Mazara–and skipper Chris Woodward has been cutting his playing time, as Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News points out (link). Though Woodward largely maintained that Mazara will still be a starter for the team moving forward, Saturday marked Mazara’s third time on the bench in eight post-break Texas games. Never an elite defender, Mazara holds a career-worst 83 wRC+ on the year and is walking at a 6.0% rate that also represents a personal low point. With just eight hits in his last 57 at-bats, it is unclear how Woodward will continue to divide outfield playing time between Mazara and a rejuvenated Danny Santana. Of Mazara’s performance, Woodward allowed only that, “We want to see the results be a little bit higher.”
Trade Candidate Faceoff: Bauer Vs. Stroman Vs. Minor
Indians right-hander Trevor Bauer, Blue Jays righty Marcus Stroman and Rangers lefty Mike Minor have been among the most popular names in the rumor mill in advance of the July 31 trade deadline. All three are quality starters who are under control through 2020, so a slew of contenders have predictably shown serious interest in each of them. But who’s the most desirable of the trio?
Perhaps it’s the 28-year-old Bauer, who started his major league career in 2012 with the Diamondbacks. The third pick in the 2011 draft, Bauer was something of a can’t-miss prospect coming up. It took him longer than expected to find his footing in the majors, though, and it didn’t happen in Arizona. It occurred in Cleveland, which acquired Bauer in a three-team trade prior to the 2013 season. Bauer was a useful starter with the Indians from his first full season in 2014 through 2017, but he truly put it all together last year. Across 175 1/3 innings, Bauer notched a 2.21 ERA/2.44 FIP with 11.34 K/9 and 2.93 BB/9 en route to a sixth-place finish in the AL Cy Young voting.
Bauer probably won’t wind up in Cy Young contention this season, though he has turned in another above-average performance. No major league starter has amassed more innings than Bauer, who has delivered 144 2/3 frames of 3.67 ERA/4.29 FIP pitching with 10.58 K/9 against 3.48 BB/9. But home runs have been a major problem for Bauer compared to last year, when he yielded them on just 6.2 percent of fly balls. The rate has shot to 15.2 this season, while Bauer’s groundball percentage has shrunk from 44.5 to 38.5. He is, however, averaging a personal-best 94.8 mph on his four-seam fastball.
Stroman, also 28, has never encountered trouble racking up grounders in the majors. Since debuting in 2014, Stroman has posted a tremendous 59.7 percent grounder rate, including 57.9 this year. The ability to induce worm burners has long made Stroman effective at preventing runs, even though he’s hardly a strikeout-heavy pitcher. Stroman has fanned just over seven per nine in his career and this season, and has also logged a sub-3.00 BB/9 during those spans. The package of skills has helped Stroman to a praiseworthy 3.06 ERA/3.60 FIP in 117 2/3 innings this season.
Minor, 31, fared nicely as a Braves starter from 2010-14, but injuries knocked his career off course thereafter and kept him out of action from 2015-16. When he returned the next season with the Royals, Minor was a reliever – and an excellent one at that. But after signing a three-year, $28MM contract with the Rangers going into 2018, he returned to a starting role. The results were closer to average than exceptional then, though Minor has made notable strides since. His ERA’s an outstanding 2.86, albeit with a less inspiring 4.08 FIP, in 129 innings. Minor fanned 10 Astros and walked one in seven innings of a losing effort Friday, improving his K/9 to 9.14 and his BB/9 to 3.14. Although Minor hurt his cause by allowing four home runs, he has generally kept the long ball at bay this season.
It’s clear Bauer, Stroman and Minor are all appealing starters, but one can’t simply compare their performances when talking about them as trade candidates. Their salaries also play a key part in the discussion. Bauer’s easily the most expensive of the group this year ($13MM) and could end up in the $18MM to $20MM range during his final trip to arbitration over the winter. Minor comes in next at $9.5MM, but another $9.5MM salary is already etched in stone for 2020. Stroman’s making $7.4MM this season, though he’ll certainly join Bauer in getting a raise in his last year of arbitration.
Weighing all the factors – performance, age, price and what you think each would cost in a trade – which of these hurlers would you most want to acquire in the next week and a half?
(Poll link for app users)
Which starter would you most want to acquire?
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Trevor Bauer 49% (6,172)
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Marcus Stroman 38% (4,841)
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Mike Minor 13% (1,637)
Total votes: 12,650
Rangers Send Jesse Chavez Back To Bullpen
- After a brief run in their rotation, righty Jesse Chavez has returned to the Rangers’ bullpen, Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News reports on Twitter. The club will recall lefty Joe Palumbo from Triple-A Nashville to start Monday in Seattle. Chavez is coming off three straight starts in which he yielded at least four earned runs, and his outing against Arizona on Wednesday was especially grisly. Chavez coughed up seven earned runs on five hits and a walk in two-thirds of an inning.
Phillies Continue To Have Interest In Mike Minor
The Phillies were one of several teams linked to Rangers left-hander Mike Minor during offseason trade talks, and with the deadline approaching, “the Phillies continue to maintain interest in” Minor’s services, NBC Sports Philadelphia’s Corey Seidman writes.
Needless to say, Minor has only elevated his stock in the eyes of any interested parties in the wake of his strong 2019 season. Minor ranked 31st on MLBTR’s recent list of the top 60 trade deadline candidates, though the southpaw would rocket up the standings if the Rangers were to give a clearer indication that they were shopping Minor rather than retaining him for their own (perhaps fading) postseason push.
A four-game losing streak has dropped Texas to 9.5 games behind the Astros in the AL West and five games out of a wild card berth. The Rangers are still a solid 50-46 overall and they begin a three-game series against Houston on Friday. Plus, the Rangers also play the last-place Mariners four times before the July 31st trade deadline, so there’s even more of an opportunity to make up ground.
Rangers GM Jon Daniels has reportedly remained open to the idea of dealing Minor even with Texas on the outskirts of the race, since Minor represents such a major trade chip for a team that, realistically, is still closer to a roster reload (if not an outright rebuild) than they are to being legitimate contenders. Minor is under contract through the 2020 season and owed roughly $13.46MM between now and the end of his deal — between that extra year of control, the very reasonable salary, and Minor’s impressive performance, he should net a substantial haul in a trade.
With this in mind, the Phils would have to further deplete a minor league system that was already thinned out by some big offseason trades. Speculatively, Seidman writes that the Phillies might have to give up something like right-hander Spencer Howard, a young outfield piece (like Adam Haseley or former first overall pick Mickey Moniak), and probably a third prospect as well (if one of a lesser caliber) for Minor. Philadelphia has already received trade interest in Howard, its second-round pick from the 2017 draft who has thus far posted big strikeout numbers in his young career, though Seidman notes that the Phillies “have been uninterested in moving” Howard in response to these prior offers.
The Phillies are known to be looking at adding both starting and relief pitching at the deadline, with such names as Robbie Ray and Mychal Givens connected to the team in recent reports. Like Minor, these pitchers are all controlled beyond the 2019 season, which makes sense given the recent insinuation from team president Andy MacPhail that the Phillies weren’t likely to give up their top prospects for rental players.
Latest On Mike Minor
The availability of Rangers lefty Mike Minor remains a key topic in the development of the 2019 summer trade market. The 31-year-old southpaw is among several quality veteran hurlers who could — but may not necessarily — end up on the move in the next two weeks.
Texas GM Jon Daniels has suggested that the club’s approach won’t be swayed too much by the standings, but it’s hard to ignore that as a factor. Entering play today, the Rangers sat 8.5 games back of the Astros, in third place in the AL West, and four games out of Wild Card position with four clubs in better position to claim the two play-in game slots.
Under the circumstances, MLB.com’s Jon Morosi seems to be stating the obvious when he writes that the Texas front office is “increasingly open-minded” about spinning Minor off in a trade. Indeed, that’s very nearly exactly how Daniels himself has publicly characterized the matter, indicating that says he’s hesitant but can’t rule out a trade involving Minor.
That’s not pleasing news for the veteran southpaw himself, as MLB.com’s TR Sullivan reports. Minor says that rumors of a sell-off “make us mad.” It sounds as if he’d rather stay and fight down the stretch. “I don’t want to go anywhere,” said Minor. “My name was talked about in the offseason, so I’m used to it. It seems like ever since I signed, I’ve been a topic. It’s like I signed here just to be traded.”
While that is something of an exaggeration, it’s not entirely untrue. Minor was a widely pursued pitcher when the Rangers nabbed him by promising him a chance to start and making a three-year commitment. The contract has worked out better than even the most optimistic predictions. With the Texas club still in a transition phase, it has fielded persistent interest in Minor — whose appeal is enhanced by his quality results this year (2.73 ERA in 122 innings) and affordable 2020 contract rights ($9.5MM).
Given their recent slide, the question is probably a fairly straightforward one for the Rangers, who value Minor for the same essential reasons that most other clubs do. They’ll simply wait to see if they’re offered enough young talent to give up the chance to keep a very good hurler at a nice price for the opening year of their new ballpark. If not, they can comfortably hang onto him.