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Cubs To Sign Yan Gomes

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Catcher Yan Gomes has agreed to a two-year, $13MM deal to join the Chicago Cubs, pending a physical. The contract contains a $6MM option for a third year, as well as $1MM in performance bonuses available each year based on games started. Gomes is a client of Jet Sports Management.

Gomes was on the free agent market two years ago and signed a two-year deal with the Nationals that came with a $10MM guarantee. After a decent showing over those two seasons, including a trade to Oakland at this year’s trade deadline, Gomes entered this year’s market as arguably the best backstop available. Over the past two campaigns, Gomes played 133 games, hitting 18 home runs and slashing .260/.306/.432. When combined with solid defensive numbers, he produced 1.8 fWAR in that time. Now the 34-year-old has beaten his previous contract by $3MM. He also beats MLBTR’s prediction that he would get the same $10MM guarantee as his last trip to free agency.

Gomes is a veteran of ten seasons between the Blue Jays, Guardians, Nationals and Athletics. His best showing came in 2013-2014 with Cleveland, where his combination of potent offence and excellent defence led to him producing 9.4 fWAR over those two seasons. He hit 32 home runs and slashed .284/.325/.476, adding up to a wRC+ of 121. He followed that up with a couple of rough seasons in 2015 and 2016, partially because of a serious shoulder injury, but has since bounced back to be a solid regular over the past five seasons.

Gomes joins a Cubs team that already has a starting catcher in the form of Willson Contreras, who was one of the few long-standing Cubs to survive the team’s recent fire sale. They sent most of the remaining household names from their 2016 World Series championship club out the door at the trade deadline this year, including Kris Bryant, Javier Baez and Anthony Rizzo, along with more recent additions to the club such as Craig Kimbrel and Ryan Tepera. Contreras, however, remains with the team, despite being just one season away from free agency.

The addition of Gomes seems to raise the specter of Contreras being the next guy out the door, and Contreras himself might even agree, as he tweeted a series of emojis showing a plane taking off and landing, perhaps implying that he is about to embark on a journey. Given the thin catching market, Contreras should be a hot commodity if he is indeed shopped around on the trade market. The 29-year-old, 30 in May, has been an above-average hitter in each of his six seasons so far, along with contributing on the defensive side of his game. In 621 career games, he has 95 home runs and has hit .259/.349/.458, for a wRC+ of 114 and 12.0 fWAR.

Craig Mish of SportsGrid first reported the two-year deal with a $13MM guarantee. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic first relayed the $6MM option for a third year and the $1MM annual performance bonuses.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Cubs Prospect Miguel Amaya To Undergo Tommy John Surgery

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Cubs catching prospect Miguel Amaya is expected to require Tommy John surgery, according to Jordan Bastian of MLB.com. Bastian says the team believes the surgery is “imminent”. Patrick Mooney of The Athletic adds that Amaya “is expected to undergo Tommy John surgery and begin a rehab program next month.”

Regardless of when the surgery eventually takes place, it’s unfortunate news for the Cubs as Amaya is one of the organization’s top prospects. FanGraphs, Baseball America and MLB Pipeline all have the 22-year-old within the top eight on their respective lists of Cubs prospects, with MLB Pipeline having him as high as number four within the organization.

Amaya was added to the team’s 40-man roster two years ago, in order to protect him from that year’s Rule 5 draft. At the time, he had only climbed as far as High-A, but the club felt good enough about his future to give him a roster spot despite his distance from the majors. The Panamanian has often gotten high grades for controlling the running game, as well as a patient approach as a hitter. In 2019, his 13.2% walk rate and 16.8% strikeout rate both pointed to a hitter with a competent eye and mature approach at the plate. The pandemic wiped out the minor league season in 2020, but Amaya seemed to be continuing on course in 2021. In 23 Double-A games, his walk rate jumped to an incredible 19.8%, although his strikeout rate also ticked up a bit, finishing at 20.8%. Despite a .215 batting average and just a single home run, he still managed a wRC+ of 117. He last played on June 3, being sidelined with the forearm strain that has led to the upcoming surgery. Unfortunately for Amaya, he will now have his progressed stalled until he can return to health.

The Cubs will now have to make a decision on how to handle Amaya’s roster situation in 2022, given that he’s unlikely to play much, if at all. He’s already used up two of his three option years, meaning he would be out of options if he is kept on the minor league injured list for the next year. Alternatively, they could recall Amaya and place him on the major league IL. That would allow the club to retain an option that could be used in 2023, but Amaya would be entitled to major league pay and service time for as long as he is on the IL. (Unless, of course, the rules are changed in the next CBA.)

The Cubs are set to have Willson Contreras behind the dish in 2022, in what will be his last season of team control. He and Amaya are the only two catchers currently on the team’s 40-man roster. If they turn to the free agent market to find a backup to Contreras, they will be perusing a class with very limited options.

Marcus Stroman Drawing Widespread Interest

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The free agent starting pitching market has gotten off to a fast start, but there hasn’t yet been any movement among the top tier of arms. There’s surely robust interest in each of the class’ top starters, particularly given that the market for mid-tier options has already proven quite strong. Some clarity has emerged on the bidding for one of those top hurlers: right-hander Marcus Stroman.

MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes reports (Twitter link) that the Red Sox, Giants, Cubs, Angels and incumbent Mets are among the clubs with interest in Stroman. The Angels were already reported to be suitors, but the other four teams represent newly-known entrants into his market. Jon Morosi of MLB.com, meanwhile, adds the Mariners as another potential suitor for Stroman.

No one in that group is particularly surprising, as each of that quintet has been known to be seeking starting pitching. The Giants, Cubs and Angels have all made one or more notable rotation pickups already, but each reportedly remained in the bidding for Steven Matz even after landing other starters. The Red Sox and Mets were also known Matz suitors, and they’re both facing rotation uncertainty this winter. Boston has already seen Eduardo Rodríguez depart, while the Mets have lost Noah Syndergaard and would need to replace Stroman were he to sign elsewhere.

Stroman’s a sensible target for any team looking to bolster its rotation. The 30-year-old has been a reliable source of above-average innings for essentially the entirety of his career. He’s started 32+ games and exceeded 175 innings in four of the past five full seasons, with his 19 starts and 102 1/3 frames in 2018 the lone exception. (Stroman also opted out of the shortened 2020 campaign). Going back to the start of 2016, he ranks fifteenth in innings pitched, consistently shouldering a heavy workload in spite of his slight frame.

Over the course of his career, Stroman typically hasn’t had an approach geared towards missing many bats. He’s coming off a career-best 11.6% swinging strike rate, though, a mark that’s a hair above the 10.9% league average for starters. Generating an average or better amount of whiffs would be more of an ancillary bonus than anything, as Stroman’s calling cards are plus strike-throwing and plenty of grounders.

The sinkerballer has induced grounders on over half the balls in play against him in each season of his career, routinely surpassing 60% ground-ball rates during his time with the Blue Jays. His 50.8% rate in 2021 was a career-low, but that figure was still eight points above the league mark. That consistency in inducing ground-ball contact has allowed Stroman to remain mostly impervious to longballs, as he’s never allowed even one homer per nine innings in a season during his big league career.

Stroman played out the 2021 campaign with the Mets after accepting the club’s qualifying offer last winter. Players can’t be tagged with a QO more than once in their careers, so Stroman hit the market this winter unencumbered. Signing clubs won’t have to forfeit a draft choice to land the former first-round pick, and the Mets wouldn’t receive any compensation were he to depart.

Between Stroman’s consistently strong track record and the lack of a QO, he profiles as one of the more appealing options in this winter’s class. Stroman doesn’t boast the swing-and-miss stuff of some of this offseason’s other top options, but he’s also proven capable of thriving in spite of below-average strikeout numbers. The Duke University product has posted an ERA under 4.00 in four of his six seasons with 100+ innings pitched, and his 3.02 mark in 2021 was a personal best. Entering the offseason, MLBTR placed Stroman eleventh on the Top 50 free agents, forecasting a five-year, $110MM guarantee.

Wade Davis Announces Retirement

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Three-time All-Star and 2015 World Series champion Wade Davis announced his retirement after a 13-year MLB career Wednesday (via a tweet from the Royals).

Wade Davis

Davis, 36, began his pro career as a third-round pick by the Devil Rays back in 2004. He ranked not only among Tampa Bay’s top prospects but among the best farmhands in all of baseball from 2007-10, while developing as a rotation hopeful in a perennially strong Tampa Bay system.

After a strong run through the minors, Davis debuted as a 23-year-old in 2009, going on to enjoy some success as a member of the Rays’ rotation for the next couple of seasons. From 2009-11, Davis started 64 games and pitched to a 4.22 ERA out of the Tampa rotation — albeit with lackluster strikeout and walk rates, as well as less-flattering marks from fielding-independent pitching metrics.

A move to the bullpen in 2012 brought about a sub-3.00 ERA and nearly doubled Davis’ strikeout rate, but the Royals still had designs on moving him back into the rotation when acquiring Davis and teammate James Shields in what remains one of the more surprising and impactful blockbuster trades in recent memory. Shields, controlled two years at the time, and Davis (controlled for three) went to the Royals in exchange for then-prospects Wil Myers, Jake Odorizzi, Mike Montgomery and Patrick Leonard. It was a massive deal that had long-term implications for both clubs — a trade that set the stage for Kansas City’s eventual back-to-back World Series appearances.

Davis didn’t fare too well in his return to starting pitching, as his first season with Kansas City culminated in a 5.32 ERA in 135 2/3 innings. The Royals put Davis back in the ’pen following those struggles, and Davis joined Greg Holland, Kelvin Herrera and (in 2015) Ryan Madson in anchoring some of the most imposing bullpens of the past decade. The dominant relief corps that Kansas City rode to a 2014 World Series loss and a 2015 World Series title, in many ways, helped to drive the emphasis teams place on cultivating a deep collection of power-armed relievers for ideal postseason usage.

Davis not only thrived in his return to the bullpen — he broke out as one of the best relief pitchers on the planet. He posted a flat 1.00 ERA with a 39.1% strikeout rate in 2014 — a brilliant strikeout rate even by today’s standards but a nearly unparalleled mark back in ’14, when the leaguewide strikeout rate was nearly four percent lower than at its recent peak in 2020. Davis finished eighth in Cy Young voting that season and somehow followed up with an even better year in 2015, when he posted a sub-1.00 ERA and landed sixth in AL Cy Young voting.

Davis’ dominance extended well beyond the regular season in that pair of World Series campaigns with Kansas City. He was almost comedically overpowering in the postseason, performing on a completely different level than the opposing lineups through which he breezed.  In 25 innings of postseason play from 2014-15, Davis allowed one earned run on just 14 hits with a staggering 38-to-5 K/BB ratio.

The Royals embarked on something of a rebuild in the 2016-17 offseason, as most of their World Series core reached or was nearing free agency. That prompted the Royals to flip Davis to the reigning World Champion Cubs, netting eventual American League home run leader Jorge Soler in return. Davis’ dominance largely continued in Chicago. In all, from 2014-17, Davis made three All-Star teams while pitching to a 1.45 ERA with 79 saves and a 33.1% strikeout rate in 241 1/3 regular-season innings (plus plenty of postseason mastery).

It was wholly unsurprising that he was in demand as a free agent that winter, and the Rockies rewarded Davis with a three-year, $52MM contract that established a new average annual salary record for a reliever at $17.33MM. Davis led the National League with 43 saves in 2018, his first season with the Rox, but things unraveled thereafter. Oblique and shoulder injuries weighed Davis down in subsequent seasons, and the Rockies released him in Sept. 2020 with just weeks remaining on that three-year pact.

The 2021 season marked something of a full-circle campaign for Davis, who returned to the Royals on a minor league deal and broke camp in the team’s bullpen. Forearm and continued shoulder troubles sent Davis to the injured list on multiple occasions, however, and his once-96.5 mph heater sat at a greatly diminished 92.8 mph. Davis managed 42 2/3 innings in relief, but he was hit hard and finished out the season with a 6.75 ERA.

All told, Davis will conclude his career at 63-55 with 141 saves, 270 games finished, a 3.94 ERA and 929 strikeouts in 990 1/3 regular-season innings. He tacked on an additional 40 innings of 1.80 ERA ball, four wins, eight saves and 57 strikeouts in a sensational postseason career. Davis made more than $87MM in a 13-year career and will forever be remembered by Royals faithful for the indelible role he played in Kansas City’s baseball renaissance in 2014-15.

Photo courtesy of Imagn/USA Today Sports.

Steven Matz Weighing Multiple Offers, Expects To Sign This Week

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Nov. 23, 10:08 pm: Matz has at least one two-year offer in hand, reports Jon Morosi of MLB.com (on Twitter).

Nov. 23, 10:01 am: Matz is weighing offers from each of the Giants, Red Sox, Blue Jays, Tigers, Cubs, Cardinals, Angels and Mets, Heyman tweets. The Giants’ offer remains on the table even after re-signing DeSclafani.

Nov. 22: The free agent starting pitching market has moved very quickly over the offseason’s first few weeks, and it seems another domino could soon fall. Southpaw Steven Matz is likely to pick his destination before Thanksgiving, reports Joel Sherman of the New York Post (Twitter link).

Interest in Matz has been robust, with the Red Sox, incumbent Blue Jays, Mets, Dodgers, Cardinals and Angels among teams already rumored to have interest. Jon Heyman of the MLB Network adds the Tigers, Cubs and Giants to that mix. The Mets have put forth a formal offer, although they’re joined in that regard by seven other clubs, according to Anthony DiComo of MLB.com (on Twitter).

Matz is coming off a nice season in Toronto, rebounding from an awful 2020 campaign to toss 150 2/3 innings of 3.82 ERA ball. The 30-year-old didn’t miss too many bats, but he only walked 6.6% of opponents and induced grounders at a solid 45.5% clip. Matz’s 4.12 SIERA wasn’t quite as impressive as his ERA, but both his actual run prevention and peripherals have typically hovered right around 4.00.

That’s valuable mid-rotation production, although Matz has previously had some issues with the long ball. Home runs weren’t an issue in 2021, but he served up an astonishing 14 round-trippers in just 30 2/3 frames with the Mets in 2020. That showing seemingly marked for an ugly end to a generally solid tenure in Queens, but the New York front office apparently has interest in bringing him back into the fold after his bounceback showing this year.

Each of the Tigers, Cubs and Giants entered the offseason known to be targeting rotation help. The Cubs claimed Wade Miley off waivers from the division-rival Reds. Detroit has already signed Eduardo Rodríguez, while San Francisco has reunited with Anthony DeSclafani and are seemingly on the verge of a deal with Alex Wood. None of that trio has as marked a rotation need as they did just two weeks ago, but there’s enough uncertainty on all three clubs’ staffs that they can and probably will make another rotation addition of some sort this winter.

The Jays considered making Matz an $18.4MM qualifying offer but ultimately decided against it. Toronto won’t receive a compensatory pick if he were to sign elsewhere, then, while adding Matz wouldn’t cost another team a draft pick.

Cubs Acquire Harold Ramirez From Guardians

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The Cubs have acquired outfielder Harold Ramirez from the Guardians in exchange for cash, per a club announcement out of Chicago. Ramirez was one of seven players designated for assignment in Cleveland last Friday. The Cubs now have 38 players on their 40-man roster.

Ramirez, 27, made his big league debut with the Marlins in 2019 and earned quickly made himself into a Miami fan favorite with a mammoth first season in the Majors. In May 2019, Ramirez slashed .368/.419/.474 — understandably endearing himself to those who follow the Fish.

It’s been a steady decline since that point, however, as Ramirez has posted just .264/.299/.400 (86 wRC+). Ramirez has solid bat-to-ball skills but rarely walks and chases outside the zone far too often. Since 2019, Ramirez’s 43.6% chase rate on pitches off the plate is the ninth-highest mark among 340 players with at least 500 plate appearances. His .134 isolated power (slugging minus batting average) during that time ranks 281st in the same subset, placing him well shy of the league-average — particularly relative to his corner outfield peers.

Ramirez joins Michael Hermosillo as a right-handed-hitting bench option for the Cubs, though he doesn’t have the typical platoon splits one might expect. His numbers against lefties (.275/.315/.400, 92 wRC+) and righties (.270/.306/.408, 90 wRC+) are nearly identical. Defensively, Ramirez has appeared at all three outfield spots but is best-suited for work in either left field or right field.

Ramirez is out of minor league options, so the Cubs will either need to break camp with him on the Opening Day roster next year or else expose him to waivers. He’ll compete for a bench spot in Spring Training, but it also stands to reason that Chicago could be in the market for outfield upgrades this winter, which could complicate Ramirez’s path to a roster spot.

Quick Hits: Mets, A’s, Cubs

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The Mets current payroll already sits at about $185MM, but owner Steve Cohen would still rather add through free agency than deplete an already thin farm system by trading away prospects, per Deesha Thosar of the New York Daily News. Cohen’s comments were pretty telling as he introduced new GM Billy Eppler. Said Cohen, “We don’t really have a lot in our farm system to supplement what we need. It’s going to require spending. That’s what’s going to happen. I’ve let Billy know that I’m willing — for the right deals and right free agents — to go get the players we need. We want to be competitive.”

The Mets’ strategy appears to be to let walk the free agents who can net them draft picks (like Noah Syndergaard and Michael Conforto), while dipping back into free agency to replace their on-field production. That’s a sound team-building strategy, so long as the Mets are able to find the right free agents to round out the roster. From a forward-looking perspective, the added draft picks will certainly help in building a sustainable development engine, which should be the goal of every franchise. Elsewhere around the game…

  • The Athletics have made a move to purchase land in Las Vegas that could be home to a future stadium, per Matt Kawahara of the San Francisco Chronicle. The exact location hasn’t been revealed as the A’s continue on the “parallel paths” track for future planning, exploring their options in both Vegas and Oakland. As of now, this constitutes little more than another step in the A’s flirtation with Vegas. That said, it’s an important step. The A’s current stadium lease runs through 2024.
  • The Cubs struck quickly this winter to nab Wade Miley from the Reds. Miley joins Kyle Hendricks as the only two pitchers currently locked into starting spots for next season, per Russell Dorsey of the Chicago Sun-Times. That’s actually a better foundation than the Cubs have had in recent seasons, at least if you buy into Miley’s breakout last season. As for the rest of the rotation, it’s currently a four-man stable auditioning for three open rotation spots. Adbert Alzolay, Justin Steele, Keegan Thompson, and Alec Mills will all compete for bulk innings next season, even if one or more of that quartet ultimately gets bumped into full-time bullpen roles.

Cubs Select Nelson Velazquez, Ethan Roberts

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The Cubs announced that they have selected the contracts of outfielder Nelson Velazquez and right-handed pitcher Ethan Roberts. The move protects both players against being selected by a rival team in this year’s Rule 5 draft. Chicago’s 40-man roster now has 37 spots accounted for.

Velazquez was a 5th-round pick for the Cubs back in 2017, and the book on him at the time was that he possessed above average tools across the board outside of a raw hit tool. That projection has largely held true in the young outfielder’s professional career, as he has posted a cumulative .259 batting average with more strikeouts (377) than games played (316). The 22-year-old’s selection though comes as little surprise on the heels of his strongest season yet, producing a .270/.333/.496 slash across two levels this past season, with the bulk of that production coming in his first look against Double-A pitching. Velazquez has further upped his stock with a tremendous .366/.467/.693 Fall League showing, even if the strikeouts remain an issue.

Roberts, a right-hander out of Tennessee Technological University, has taken his 4th round pedigree and steadily climbed through the minors with the Cubs. A reliever, the 24-year-old has ridden the strength of a cut fastball and plus command to generally strong run prevention numbers and strikeout totals. His Double-A performance this year was outstanding, yielding a 1.97 ERA and 45 strikeouts across 32 innings. Though a promotion to Triple-A didn’t go quite as well (4.50 ERA and 27 strikeouts in 22 innings), Roberts could be a near-term option for his Major League club.

Minor MLB Transactions: 11/18/21

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Some recent minor moves from around baseball:

  • The Orioles are re-signing righty Marcos Diplán to a minor league contract, reports Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com (Twitter link). He’ll receive an invitation to big league Spring Training. Diplán made his first 23 big league appearances this past season, working 30 frames of relief. The 25-year-old managed a respectable 4.50 ERA, but that came with an unimpressive 19.5% strikeout rate and an elevated 12.2% walk percentage. The O’s outrighted Diplán off the 40-man roster after the season, but he’ll return to the organization and look to pitch his way back onto the big league club next spring.
  • The Reds agreed to a minors pact with righty Connor Overton yesterday, according to a report from Robert Murray of FanSided (on Twitter). The 28-year-old made his MLB debut with the Blue Jays in August, then landed with the Pirates via waivers the following month. Between the two clubs, he tossed 15 1/3 innings of 4.70 ERA ball with roughly league average strikeout and walk numbers. Overton had a great showing with the Jays’ Triple-A affiliate, posting a 2.03 ERA in 57 2/3 frames — working mostly out of the bullpen.
  • The Cubs reached agreement on a minor league deal earlier this week with catcher Tyler Payne, per a report from Russell Dorsey of the Chicago Sun-Times (Twitter link). Payne made his big league debut on the final day of the regular season, going hitless in two plate appearances. Chicago outrighted him off the 40-man roster after the season but they’ll bring the 29-year-old back to bolster their organizational depth behind the plate. The right-handed hitting Payne posted a .231/.291/.363 line over 234 plate appearances with Double-A Tennessee this year.

Cubs Hire Daniel Moskos As Assistant Pitching Coach

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The Cubs announced the hiring of former major leaguer Daniel Moskos as their assistant pitching coach. The 35-year-old has spent the past two seasons coaching in the Yankees’ farm system, but he’ll now get his first opportunity to join a big league staff.

Moskos is best known for his early-career playing days with the Pirates. Pittsburgh selected the southpaw out of Clemson University with the fourth overall pick of the 2007 draft. He was one of the Bucs’ top pitching prospects early in his pro career, but Moskos’ velocity backed up pretty early into his minor league tenure. By 2010, he’d been moved to the bullpen full-time, but he did contribute for Pittsburgh in 2011.

Working primarily as a situational reliever, Moskos tossed 24 1/3 innings of 2.96 ERA ball as a rookie. He didn’t miss many bats, though, and the Pirates waived him midway through the 2012 campaign. Moskos spent the next few seasons bouncing between teams’ Triple-A affiliates and made a comeback effort in the Mexican League in 2018, but he never got back to the bigs as a player.

He’ll now earn the opportunity to return to the major league level as a coach. Moskos will pair with pitching coach Tommy Hottovy to lead a Chicago pitching staff that ranked in the bottom ten in 2021 in ERA (4.88) and strikeout/walk rate differential (12.3 percentage points).

Russell Dorsey of the Chicago Sun-Times first reported Moskos’ hiring prior to the team announcement.

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