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Cubs’ Theo Epstein Discusses Offseason Plans

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Cubs president of baseball operations Theo Epstein allocated up to $272MM to free agents Jason Heyward, Ben Zobrist and John Lackey last winter. Now, a year later, the architect of the 2016 World Series champions expects a relatively quiet offseason.

[RELATED: Cubs Offseason Outlook]

“We made two offseasons worth of acquisitions last winter, two offseasons worth of spending,” Epstein told Paul Sullivan of the Chicago Tribune. “We were very open about that at the time, knowing this winter there wouldn’t quite be the same type of talent available to us.”

Epstein admitted, though, that a loss to the Indians in Game 7 of the World Series might have led to a “different kind of mindset.”

“Sometimes when you do win it, it can allow you to take a little bit of a deep breath and survey the landscape more objectively,” he said.

The Cubs have two high-profile free agents in center fielder Dexter Fowler, to whom they extended a $17.2MM qualifying offer last week, and closer Aroldis Chapman. If Fowler rejects the QO by Monday’s deadline and signs elsewhere on the open market, the Cubs will still have plenty of in-house outfield options in Heyward, Zobrist, Kyle Schwarber, Jorge Soler, Albert Almora and Matt Szczur. Heyward and Almora jump out as potential successors to Fowler in center, though the former has far more experience in right field and Epstein isn’t yet eager to hand the role to the latter. Instead, he’d add someone to “complement [Almora] and allow him to grow into the job” – likely a lefty-swinging center fielder, per Sullivan. As this year’s free agent list shows, center fielders who should come at modest prices and are either left-handed or switch-hitters include Jon Jay, Coco Crisp and Michael Bourn.  Picking up one of them (or anyone else) would further crowd the Cubs’ outfield, perhaps making a Soler trade even more probable than it appears now. Epstein remains bullish on the 24-year-old, but he isn’t ruling out moving him.

“We don’t have any untouchables, but I still think there’s a lot more in there offensively,” stated Epstein. “He hasn’t had the season yet where he has put it all together, hit 30 home runs and been a force in the middle of the lineup. But it’s so obviously in there. We’d like to see him reach his full potential with us, if possible.”

Soler looked like a star in the making late in the 2014 season, his first taste of major league action, when the Cuba native slashed .292/.330/.573 in 97 plate appearances. Soler has tumbled to earth since, having hit .253/.328/.413 in 668 PAs dating back to 2015, though he’s under control through 2020 and could tantalize outfielder-needy teams if Chicago shops him.

It’s possible the Cubs could acquire pitching in a Soler trade, either in the bullpen to help replace Chapman (general manager Jed Hoyer has indicated they’re not looking to spend big money on a reliever) or the rotation. Having declined Jason Hammel’s option last week, the Cubs might be in the market for starting help to complement an enviable top four of Jon Lester, Jake Arrieta, Kyle Hendricks and Lackey. For now, swingman/Game 7 World Series closer Mike Montgomery is the favorite to take over Hammel’s vacated fifth spot. Montgomery told MLB Network Radio earlier this week that he’ll enter spring training as a starter (Twitter link), but it wouldn’t be surprising to see the Cubs at least land more depth for their rotation – whether in a Soler deal or by other means.

Reliever Notes: Chapman, Jansen, Melancon, Giants, Holland, Marlins

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The Giants met this week with representatives of top free agent relievers Aroldis Chapman, Kenley Jansen, and Mark Melancon, Bob Nightengale of USA Today (on Twitter) and Jon Morosi of MLB Network (Twitter link) report. Finding a solution for the ninth inning is perhaps the top priority for Giants GM Bobby Evans, so it’s not surprising to hear that he’s looking into the three best options on the open market. It’s far from clear at this point whether the Giants are particularly interested in any of these pitchers. It will certainly be interesting to see the strategic approaches of the players and teams in the market for premium closers. There are plenty of suitors circling, but they’ll surely be somewhat cautious in doling out potentially record-setting contracts.

  • We took a look yesterday at the latest on Greg Holland, who’s a risky but intriguing alternative to the three major options just noted, but there’s more ground to cover today. The Cubs are among many organizations that have real interest in Holland, as Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times reports. They certainly aren’t alone, as Jon Heyman of Fan Rag reports that clubs including the Rays, Indians, and Mariners — in addition to the many others who were reportedly on hand for his recent showcase — could still be involved.
  • While the Marlins’ priority is in the rotation, the club may consider bolstering its relief corps as an alternative, MLB.com’s Joe Frisaro reports. President of baseball operations Michael Hill suggests that the team will allow the market to “dictate[] the direction” that’s ultimately taken, at least to some extent, and that the Fish will explore all free agent and trade possibilities. But if the price for a worthwhile rotation addition proves too steep, the organization may perhaps pivot a bit. “You see the trends now, and the analytics, and they may say you don’t want to face guys a third time through the lineup,” Hill said. “It puts more of an emphasis to have a stronger bullpen. A lot of our success this year was because of our strong bullpen.” Frisaro notes that the Marlins have long been interested in Chapman, though it would seemingly be a big surprise were the club to enter his market in earnest.

Offseason Outlook: Chicago Cubs

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MLBTR is publishing Offseason Outlooks for all 30 teams.  Click here for the other entries in this series.

The impossible has happened.  The Cubs won the World Series.  Millions of Cubs fans are now contemplating something their parents and grandparents never could: a potential dynasty.  While Theo Epstein, Jed Hoyer, and the rest of the Cubs’ front office have a free pass for life in Chicago, they’re already plotting an encore.  What’s next for the Cubs?

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Jon Lester, SP: $90MM through 2020.  Includes $25MM mutual option for 2021 with a $10MM buyout.  2021 option becomes guaranteed with 200 innings in 2020 or 400 innings in 2019-20.
  • Jason Heyward, RF: $149MM through 2023.  Heyward can opt out of contract after 2018 season or after 2019 season with 550 plate appearances in 2019.
  • John Lackey, SP: $12.5MM through 2017.
  • Miguel Montero, C: $14MM through 2017.
  • Ben Zobrist, OF/2B: $44MM through 2019.
  • Anthony Rizzo, 1B: $27MM through 2019.  Includes $14.5MM club option with a $2MM buyout for 2020 and an identical club option for 2021.  2019 salaries can increase based on MVP finishes.  Rizzo can void 2021 option with top two finish in 2017-19 MVP voting and subsequent trade.
  • Jorge Soler, OF: $15MM through 2020.  Can opt into arbitration after 2017 season.

Contract Options

  • Jason Hammel, SP: Cubs chose $2MM buyout over $12MM club option.
  • Dexter Fowler, CF: Fowler declined his part of $9MM mutual option, triggering $5MM buyout.

Arbitration Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; link to MLBTR projections)

Free Agents

The 2016 Cubs had the best starting rotation in baseball by a long shot, and they had the rare ability to bring back the exact same group for 2017: Jon Lester, Jake Arrieta, Kyle Hendricks, John Lackey, and Jason Hammel.  Instead, Epstein kicked off the offseason with a surprising move that won’t go unnoticed by future free agents.  The Cubs declined their option on Hammel, who posted a 3.79 ERA over two seasons for the club.  The 34-year-old might have profiled as the best fifth starter in baseball.  The Cubs feel they can do better, and didn’t feel the need to exercise the option and trade Hammel, which could have brought a low-level prospect in return.  Epstein said in a statement, “Our hope is that by giving a starting opportunity to some younger pitchers under multiple years of club control, we can unearth a starter who will help us not only in 2017 but also in 2018 and beyond.”

One internal possibility is Mike Montgomery, the 27-year-old lefty the Cubs acquired from the Mariners in a July trade.  Montgomery pitched well in his five starts for the Cubs, though his control remains an issue.  Montgomery also made the short list of Joe Maddon’s trusted relievers as the team continued through the playoffs.  Moving him to the rotation is a viable option, though it would open up a hole in the bullpen.  Southpaw Rob Zastryzny, the Cubs’ second round draft pick in 2013, is another rotation option.  However, with a 4.31 ERA across 23 starts at Double and Triple-A this year, Zastryzny would seem a clear downgrade from Hammel.

The free agent market for starting pitching is historically weak.  The only pitcher clearly better than Hammel is former Cub Rich Hill, a brittle lefty who turns 37 in March and would hardly fit Epstein’s search for a younger starter.  That brings us to the trade market.  Possible candidates include Chris Archer, Jake Odorizzi, Drew Smyly, Chris Sale, Jose Quintana, Sonny Gray, and Shelby Miller, all of whom are controllable for multiple years.  The potential prizes of the market are Sale and Quintana, but the White Sox could be reluctant to send one of their aces across town. The Cubs have plenty of position players they might consider trading, including Jorge Soler on the Major League side and prospects such as Ian Happ, Eloy Jimenez, Jeimer Candelario, and Mark Zagunis.  The Cubs already spent a few pieces from their stash this summer, trading Gleyber Torres to get Aroldis Chapman and Dan Vogelbach to get Montgomery.

The Chicago bullpen will require serious work this winter.  Though Hector Rondon and Pedro Strop handled the late innings ably for much of the season for the Cubs, Joe Maddon seemed to lose faith in them as the playoffs wore on.  With combined arbitration salaries over $11MM, I can see the Cubs trading one of them.  Justin Grimm is more affordable, and despite some issues with free passes, he’s worth keeping around.  Carl Edwards Jr. is locked in as one of the Cubs’ more trusted relievers.  Montgomery will certainly have a spot if he doesn’t land in the rotation.  Travis Wood may leave for greener pastures (and a rotation job) as a free agent, while Trevor Cahill and Joe Smith did not make the playoff roster and will likely be allowed to sign elsewhere.

It is difficult to picture a team as stacked with talent and flush with money as the Cubs, coming off a World Championship, not striving for a relief ace.  The free agent market happens to offer two of them, Aroldis Chapman and Kenley Jansen.  However, as Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports pointed out recently, signing Chapman or Jansen to a five-year deal in the $80-90MM range doesn’t fit with Epstein’s history.  And Cubs GM Jed Hoyer recently expounded on “trying to be creative in finding bullpen pieces,” perhaps discovering the next Andrew Miller or Wade Davis.  Andrew Cashner, anyone?

While the Cubs could turn to the trade market for a dominant reliever, options are limited.  The Orioles’ Zach Britton or the Royals’ Kelvin Herrera would be excellent two-year additions, but they are not known to be available.  Davis, a potential one-year pickup from Kansas City, battled a flexor strain in his elbow this summer.  Barring availability of the Indians’ Andrew Miller, I don’t see any other established top relievers the Cubs could pursue.  Rather than bring in a lesser closer, they could just try to get Rondon back on track, as he had an excellent season before an August triceps injury.  We also must consider Epstein’s ability to think outside the box, as he did in trading for Montgomery.  If the Cubs’ front office is big on a Tyler Thornburg, Nate Jones, or Alex Colome, they could use their position player depth to pry one of them loose.   Regardless of the closer situation, the Cubs may do well to add another lefty reliever to the mix, with free agent options such as Brett Cecil, Boone Logan, Jerry Blevins, and Mike Dunn.

On the position player side, the Cubs have an embarrassment of riches.  Behind the plate, 24-year-old Willson Contreras will be the starter after a strong rookie debut.  Given his salary, the Cubs will likely go with Miguel Montero as the backup catcher replacement for the retiring David Ross.  However, Maddon and Montero will have to clear the air after the catcher expressed discontent with the manager’s communication about his usage in the playoffs.  It’s also not clear whether Montero can fill Ross’ role, particularly in regard to countering the large leadoffs baserunners are able to take on Jon Lester due to the lefty’s inability to make pickoff throws.  Since Contreras is only 24, it may be possible for the Cubs to lean on him for 130-140 games while reducing the role of the backup and ending the idea of Lester having a personal catcher.

The infield corners are locked down with one of the best duos in baseball, Anthony Rizzo and Kris Bryant.  Bryant, a third baseman by trade, also logged innings at the outfield corners and first base this year.  If the playoffs are any indication, Javier Baez has taken over the Cubs’ regular second base job from Ben Zobrist.  Addison Russell is locked in at shortstop.

The Cubs’ outfield machinations will be interesting to watch.  Fowler did an excellent job as the Cubs’ center fielder and sparkplug leadoff man over the last two seasons, and the team could easily afford to sign him long-term.  But doing so would only exacerbate the outfield logjam, so they may have to let him go.  In that case, the Cubs have two options to fill center field.  One is Albert Almora, a 22-year-old who was the Cubs’ first-round draft pick in 2012.  As a contact hitter who rarely walks and only has a touch of power, Almora would be an offensive downgrade compared to Fowler.  On the other hand, he can make up some of that gap with superior glovework.  The other center field option is Jason Heyward, who has seven years remaining on his contract.  Heyward was slated for center field when the Cubs originally signed him, so it’s a possibility despite his limited exposure at the position.  He did just win a Gold Glove as a right fielder.  However, after a disastrous year at the plate, Heyward will spent the winter working on his swing, and the Cubs may not want to ask him to change positions as well.

Will Heyward’s massive contract lock him into a starting job for most of 2017, as it did this year?  I expect the 27-year-old to break camp as a lineup regular, but Maddon did show a willingness to bench Heyward in the playoffs.  Look for a shorter leash in Heyward’s second Cubs season.  Zobrist, also signed as a free agent in the 2015-16 offseason, remains slated for regular playing time.  He began 2016 as the Cubs’ regular second baseman, but the emergence of Baez has pushed him to left field.

So a Zobrist-Almora-Heyward alignment seems pretty good, right?  The “problem” is that the Cubs also have one of the game’s best young hitters, Kyle Schwarber.  Schwarber, 24 in March, made a surprisingly fast recovery from his early-season torn ACL and LCL, serving as the Cubs’ designated hitter in the World Series.  Can Schwarber catch again, alleviating some of the outfield logjam?  Even Hoyer doesn’t seem to have the answer yet, plus there’s just not a big need for him behind the dish.  Save for 10 interleague games in American League parks, Schwarber will need to get most of his playing time as the Cubs’ left fielder.  The need to get Schwarber into the lineup creates urgency for Heyward to bounce back offensively, as Zobrist could wind up in right field when Schwarber plays.

If the Cubs will have to do some juggling to get Schwarber, Heyward, and Zobrist enough at-bats, they’ll really have a problem finding room for Jorge Soler.  Soler, 25 in February, is the Cubs’ most obvious piece of trade bait.  The Cubs control Soler for the next four seasons.  In 765 career plate-appearances, he’s hitting .258/.328/.434.  In 86 games this year, Soler showed increased power and patience at the plate, but he’s still only a slightly above average hitter.  He’s also pretty clearly a below-average defender and has been injury-prone in his career.  Nonetheless, Soler’s ceiling may still tantalize some teams, as the former top prospect’s bat still has All-Star potential.  In potential trades with the Rays, White Sox, Phillies, and others, the Cubs could attempt to acquire a controllable starting pitcher and/or reliever for a package centered around Soler.

Once free agency starts to die down in the new year, the Cubs may want to look into a few contract extension opportunities.  Hendricks and Schwarber could be candidates.  Bryant and Russell would certainly be of interest, though they’re represented by Scott Boras.  There’s also the looming free agency of Arrieta, who turns 31 in March.  The 2015 Cy Young winner picked up where he left off in 2016, posting a 1.74 ERA through his first 14 starts.  Even in that period, however, his command had begun to falter, and in the 126 2/3 innings that followed (including the playoffs), Arrieta posted a 4.19 ERA, 8.1 K/9, 3.7 BB/9, and 1.14 HR/9.  That performance is more in line with a Matt Moore, Ian Kennedy, or Trevor Bauer.  Good, but not $30MM per year good.  With a potential $105MM owed to Lester through 2021, a mega-deal for Arrieta looks a lot less appealing than it did a year ago.  After 2017, Arrieta may be joined in free agency by Yu Darvish, Johnny Cueto, Danny Duffy, Masahiro Tanaka, and others, so it’s quite possible the Cubs explore alternatives.

The Cubs had baseball’s best group of position players in 2016.  Even if they subtract Fowler and Soler, full seasons from Schwarber, Baez, and Contreras, plus some level of bounceback from Heyward, might result in an even stronger group in 2017.  Likewise, the Cubs are looking to improve upon an already-strong starting rotation.  While the bullpen needs significant retooling, the Cubs project to have a good $25MM+ in the war chest to spend on new player salaries for 2017.  The team is in an incredible position for years to come, suggesting 2016 was just the beginning.

Pitching Rumors: Dodgers, Cubs, Pirates, Braves, Rockies, Padres

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The Dodgers have real interest in pursuing free agent reliever Aroldis Chapman, Andy McCullough suggests (Twitter links). While we’ve heard plenty of indication that the organization also intends to make a bid on its own departing closer, Kenley Jansen, it appears that the fireballing lefty also represents a viable target for one of the game’s biggest spenders — despite the fact that the club jettisoned a deal to acquire Chapman last winter when domestic violence allegations arose. While Los Angeles has spent very little on its bullpen since hiring Andrew Friedman to run its baseball operations, the club obviously saw the value of a shut-down arm while leaning heavily on Jansen during the postseason. The big question remains just how hard the Dodgers will push, but their presence in the market for the two best-available relievers is certainly a boon for the earning power of both.

  • Meanwhile, the Cubs are giving signals that they may be less inclined to pay top dollar for an established relief arm, as Patrick Mooney of CSN Chicago reports. While the organization gave up a haul for Chapman at the trade deadline, and featured him frequently en route to a World Series win, Chicago would seemingly prefer to think outside the box to find its next dominant relief arm. GM Jed Hoyer spoke of a “targeted” approach to the roster, with the club set to “explore every avenue” in finding a replacement for Chapman. He cited two prominent examples of pitchers who failed as starters but later emerged in a late-inning role. “You never know who that guy’s going to be,” said Hoyer. “If you stop thinking that way, you have no chance to find that guy. You always want to think like: ’OK, who is going to be that next Andrew Miller? Who’s going to be that next Wade Davis?'” As Mooney notes, Carl Edwards Jr. represents a possible internal option to take high-leverage opportunities, along with former closer Hector Rondon. Beyond that, Hoyer says, the team will “be looking at a lot of ways to acquire pitching” and will “explore every avenue” to add arms this winter.
  • That somewhat unconventional approach has long been pursued by the Pirates, and Travis Sawchik of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review looks at the team’s rotation prospects this winter. Pittsburgh’s reclamation strategy has paid dividends time and again, but that may be tougher than ever with a thin market and perhaps added competition from other organizations who have seen how the Bucs’ approach can work. GM Neal Huntington emphasized that, while a veteran pitcher would “take[] some pressure off,” it remains hard for his small-budget organization to commit the years and dollars needed to compete on the open market. He stressed the need to continue pushing the development of the team’s homegrown starters, and certainly there are a variety of options already on hand, as MLBTR’s Charlie Wilmoth analyzed in taking stock of the Pirates’ offseason outlook. As he notes, and Huntington acknowledges, the club could consider bolstering that group by dealing from its fairly robust array of position-player talent.
  • Another organization that could look to the trade market for starters is the Braves, as David O’Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution writes. Per Jon Morosi of MLB Network (via Twitter), Atlanta has spoken with the Rays about staff ace Chris Archer, who is one of the game’s top starting pitching assets (even after a disappointing 2016 season) due in large part to his youth and highly appealing contract. That’s notable, but hardly should be read as an indication that the Braves will push the pedal to the floor for a top arm. GM John Coppolella stressed that the club is looking for value in all regards, and will continue to be opportunistic rather than stretching to add a premium starter. “Starting pitching is the main need that we have, and we want it badly,” he said. “That being said, if the numbers get crazy or the years get too long [for free agents], we’ll just stick with what we have. Or we’ll look to the trade market for short-term guys. … We’re going to look for value, whether it’s starting pitching, catching, whatever. If the market spirals too far out of control, we’ll just move on to other areas of need. Maybe build a killer bullpen and add to [an area that is a strength already.”
  • Though the Rockies have received promising returns from their own rotation of late, the team isn’t satisfied with its pitching entering the winter, GM Jeff Bridich said in an appearance on MLB Network Radio on Sirius XM (Twitter link). Certainly, that could take the form of a focus on a bullpen that struggled last year, though perhaps a move for a starter can’t be ruled out either. Bridich said that the club is “going to have to take some risks” this offseason and will seek to “improve the impactful pitchers we have.”
  • The NL West-rival Padres also seem primed to take some risks on pitching (and in other areas), and Dennis Lin of the San Diego Union-Tribune reports that the organization was one of many to send scouts to watch free agent reliever Greg Holland in his recent showcase. San Diego has done well recently in finding undervalued assets for the bullpen, and a targeted bet on someone like Holland could make sense — though he’ll presumably draw wide interest given his lofty established ceiling. Meanwhile, the Pads may also consider trade offers for their own controlled arms; Lin mentions Ryan Buchter, Brad Hand, and Brandon Maurer as pitchers who have “consistently drawn outside interest.” Though GM A.J. Preller didn’t exactly suggest that the team would be looking to deal, he acknowledged that clubs have come calling. “There’s definitely been clubs checking in on our bullpen,” he said. “They saw the jobs those guys did this year.”

Phillies Hire Bryan Minniti From Diamondbacks; Arizona Hires Jared Porter From Cubs

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7:43pm: Minniti had a two-year offer to stay in Arizona, per Jon Heyman of Fan Rag (via Twitter), but elected to seek a new opportunity elsewhere.

2:13pm: A pair of notable front office changes took place today, as the Phillies announced that they’ve hired D-backs assistant GM Bryan Minniti as a special assistant to general manager Matt Klentak. The Diamondbacks clearly already had a replacement for Minniti lined up, however, as they announced this afternoon that they’ve hired Cubs director of professional scouting Jared Porter and named him senior vice president and assistant general manager.

The moves come as just one in a flurry of promotions and hires for each team. Philadelphia has promoted Jorge Velendia to the same title as Minniti, hired a “Mental Skills” coach and made yet another add to its ever-growing analytics department, as PhillyVoice.com’s Ryan Lawrence explores in greater detail. The D-backs, meanwhile, announced that they’ve promoted director of player personnel Mike Bell to vice president of player development and named former Major League infielder Josh Barfield their new assistant director of pro scouting.

Minniti will bring the Phillies an executive with seven seasons as an assistant general manager under his belt. He comes from an analytical background, having double-majored in mathematics and statistics at the University of Pittsburgh and has been working in front offices since being hired as an intern by the Pirates back in 2001. The 36-year-old worked with the D-backs for the past two seasons and spent the previous five years with the Nationals, working on matters such as statistical analysis, budgeting and contract negotiations, per Arizona’s media guide.

The addition of Porter to the D-backs’ front office, meanwhile, gives the team another big-name executive with Red Sox roots to add to its leadership group. Porter was the Cubs’ scouting director this past season but is quite familiar with newly minted Diamondbacks GM Mike Hazen and newly hired assistant GM Amiel Sawdaye from the time the trio spent together with the Red Sox. Porter spent a dozen years working in the Red Sox organization and was the team’s director of pro scouting from 2012-15.

Cubs Claim Conor Mullee, Outright Three Players

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The Cubs have claimed righty Conor Mullee off waivers from the Yankees, per announcements from the team. Chicago also selected the contract of righty Jose Rosario while outrighting three players: right-handers Dallas Beeler and Andury Acevedo as well as catcher Tim Federowicz.

Fresh off a World Series win, the Cubs will enter the winter in earnest with just 34 of its 40-man roster spots accounted for. That space allowed the team to take a flier on Mullee, who has had arm issues over the years and required elbow surgery in 2016.

Despite the injuries, and a less-than-inspiring (albeit brief) major league debut last year, Mullee has shown some intriguing numbers in the minors. Most recently, he ran up 37 2/3 Triple-A innings with a 1.19 ERA and 11.2 K/9 against 2.6 BB/9.

Chicago will presumably give Mullee a shot in camp along with the 26-year-old Rosario, who has yet to crack the bigs but has an intriguing power arm. Pitching at the three highest levels of the minors last year after missing 2015 due to Tommy John surgery, Rosario worked to a cumulative 2.50 ERA with 7.8 K/9 and 2.8 BB/9.

Otherwise, the 27-year-old Beeler lost his roster spot after shoulder injuries cut his season short. Acevedo, who was signed to the 40-man last winter, missed almost all the year with a torn ACL. And the 29-year-old Federowicz saw time briefly with the Cubs, but didn’t have much of a shot at the roster in 2017 with a deep group of catchers ahead of him. After showing well at Triple-A, though, he’ll surely get a crack somewhere in Spring Training.

Ten Players To Receive Qualifying Offers

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Major League teams had until 5pm ET today to extend qualifying offers to their impending free agents — a decision that could significantly impact the market for a number of players this winter. For those unfamiliar with the process, the collective bargaining agreement stipulates that teams can make a “qualifying offer” to free agents that spent the entire season on the roster — midseason trades and signings are ineligible — if they wish to secure draft pick compensation for the loss of that player. The QO is a set one-year value determined by averaging the salaries of the top 125 players in the league. This year, the value of that sum comes to $17.2MM.

A player will have one week to survey the market and determine whether he wishes to accept the QO or reject in search of a more lucrative free-agent deal. If a player accepts the offer — something that has happened only three times since the system’s implementation in 2012 (Matt Wieters, Colby Rasmus and Brett Anderson) — that player is considered signed for the following season at $17.2MM. The contract is considered a free-agent deal, and as such, that player is not allowed to be traded without his consent until June 15.

If the player rejects a QO, he’s free to sign with any team for any amount (including the team from which he rejected the QO). However, whichever team signs a player that has rejected a QO must surrender its top unprotected pick in the upcoming draft (unless the player re-signs with the team that made the QO). The first 10 selections are protected, so those clubs would only be required to part with their second-highest pick. A team that signs multiple players that have rejected a QO continues to forfeit its top unprotected pick for each subsequent signing. The team that lost the free agent in question, meanwhile, will receive a compensatory draft pick at the end of the first round. The order of comp picks, like the draft order itself, is determined based upon the previous year’s standings.

Last year there were a record 20 players to receive QOs (valued at $15.8MM based on 2015 salaries). There should be fewer this year, given the weak free-agent market, but there should still be a double-digit total of QOs extended. Here’s a list of who will reportedly receive qualifying offers thus far, and we’ll update this throughout the day and include the full list when the 5:00pm deadline has passed:

For a more in-depth explanation of the qualifying offer system, you can reference back to our post Explaining The Qualifying Offer System from last October. In the past, MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes has also spoken to both agents and general managers about the importance of avoiding the qualifying offer and the impact it has on teams’ decisions. MLBTR’s Jeff Todd, meanwhile, penned a pair of insightful posts in an effort to contextualize and assess the QO system and its purposes on the heels of the 2013-14 offseason.

Cubs Decline Jason Hammel’s Option

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TODAY: Chicago allowed Hammel to decide whether he’d be back for one more year or test the market, according to ESPNChicago.com’s Jesse Rogers. That was no doubt an easy call for him, at least financially.

YESTERDAY: The Cubs have declined right-hander Jason Hammel’s $12MM option for 2017 in favor of a $2MM buyout, according to a team announcement. Hammel is now a free agent.

The World Series champions’ decision to cut the reasonably priced Hammel comes as a surprise, as he at least looked like a trade candidate prior to Sunday. However, president of baseball operations Theo Epstein announced that the team had no plans to pick up Hammel’s option just to shop him.

“The intent was never to exercise the option and then trade Jason, so we will not consider that path,” said Epstein. “Instead, Jason will have the opportunity to enter free agency coming off an outstanding season and the ability to choose his next club.”

Hammel, 34, contributed 166 2/3 innings of 3.83 ERA pitching to go with a 7.78 K/9, 2.86 BB/9 and 42.1 percent ground-ball rate in 2016. He experienced elbow tightness late in the regular season, though, and the club subsequently left him off its roster during playoff victories over the Giants, Dodgers and Indians.

This ends Hammel’s second stint with the Cubs, who signed him to a one-year contract entering the 2014 season and then sent him and Jeff Samardzija to Oakland in a July deal that brought shortstop Addison Russell to Chicago. Hammel subsequently returned to the Windy City in free agency the next winter, ultimately collecting $20MM from the team on what would have been a three-year, $30MM pact had the Cubs exercised his option.

For Hammel’s earning power, the Cubs’ move to buy him out comes at a fortuitous time. Given the weakness of this winter’s free agent class, he’ll return to the open market as one of the top starters available. Going back to 2014, Hammel has logged a 3.68 ERA, 8.3 K/9, 2.4 BB/9 and 40 percent grounder mark over 513 2/3 innings.

Barring offseason acquisitions, the Cubs’ removal of Hammel from their roster will leave them with Jon Lester, Jake Arrieta, Kyle Hendricks, John Lackey and Mike Montgomery as their starting five entering 2017. That quintet should form one of the majors’ premier rotations next season if healthy, though the Cubs’ depth took an obvious hit with Hammel’s exit.

Cubs To Tender Qualifying Offer To Dexter Fowler

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In unsurprising news, the Cubs will tender Dexter Fowler a $17.2MM qualifying offer by Monday’s deadline, and the center fielder is likely to reject it, reports FanRag’s Jon Heyman.

Fowler, who’s fresh off helping the Cubs to their first World Series title in 108 years, declined his half of a $9MM mutual option for 2017 on Saturday and became a free agent. Fowler is all too familiar with the open market, as the 30-year-old rejected a $15.8MM qualifying offer from the Cubs last November and then went without a deal until February. After nearly taking the Orioles’ three-year, $33MM offer, Fowler re-signed with the Cubs for a guaranteed $13MM.

Fowler will once again have first-round compensation hanging over his head this offseason, but he should fare much better this time around as perhaps the second-best outfielder on the market, trailing only Yoenis Cespedes. The former Rockie and Astro is coming off the top season of his career, having slashed .276/.393/.447 with 13 home runs and 13 steals across 551 plate appearances to earn his first All-Star nod. Combining Fowler’s work at the plate, on the bases and in the field, where a change in positioning led to improved metrics, he accounted for a personal-high 4.7 fWAR.

While it’s possible Fowler will re-sign with the Cubs, prospective contenders like the Mets, Mariners and Rangers, to name a few, are among clubs that are likely to search for outfield help via free agency. Fowler has spent his entire career in center, but marketing himself as a corner option could lead to more suitors, thus driving up his price.

Cubs Notes: Rotation, Soler, Epstein

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The latest on the 2016 World Series champions:

  • The Cubs have an enviable long-term core of position players that includes Kris Bryant, Anthony Rizzo, Addison Russell, Javier Baez, Willson Contreras, Jason Heyward and Kyle Schwarber. However, future rotation issues could prevent the team from becoming a dynasty, writes ESPN’s Buster Olney (Insider required and recommended), who points out that Kyle Hendricks, Jon Lester and swingman/World Series Game 7 closer Mike Montgomery are their only starters signed beyond next season. Jake Arrieta, John Lackey and Jason Hammel will be free agents a year from now, and rival talent evaluators feel that Chicago’s top pitching prospects are still far from potentially cracking the majors, per Olney. Thus, in order to fill out their rotation, the Cubs could turn to next year’s open market – Yu Darvish, Masahiro Tanaka and Danny Duffy are among starters who could hit free agency then – and/or deal from their excellent group of position players to acquire pitching.
  • With Heyward, Schwarber, Ben Zobrist and Albert Almora Jr. in the fold as outfield options, the Cubs could shop Jorge Soler this offseason. But FOX Sports’ CJ Nitkowski opines that Chicago missed its chance to trade Soler (Twitter link via MLB Network Radio). It wasn’t long ago that Soler looked like a surefire core piece, but the Cuba native has underwhelmed since bursting on the scene late in the 2014 campaign. He’s still just 24, though, and didn’t perform badly at the plate in 2016 (.238/.333/.436 with 12 home runs in 264 plate appearances). Soler is also controllable through the 2020 season. He’ll make a relative pittance ($3MM) in 2017 and will then have the opportunity to opt into arbitration.
  • President of baseball operations Theo Epstein’s shrewd trading is one obvious reason the Cubs are in their current position, as Andrew Simon of MLB.com observes. Epstein has picked up several integral players that way, having landed Rizzo, Arrieta, Hendricks and Russell, to name a few. Nabbing Rizzo from the Padres in 2012 is the best deal Epstein has made since taking the helm of the franchise five years ago, posits Simon. The Cubs got the now-superstar first baseman for right-hander Andrew Cashner, who currently resembles more of a back-end starter than a major difference-maker.
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