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Reactions To The Zobrist Deal & Castro Trade

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Here’s a roundup of reactions to Ben Zobrist’s reported four-year, $56MM pact with the Cubs and their trade of infielder Starlin Castro to the Yankees for Adam Warren and Brendan Ryan.

  • The Cubs are hoping Zobrist’s decreased production last year was due primarily to his knee injury and that he can approach the levels of performance he had previously established, ESPN’s Jonah Keri writes. WAR rated Zobrist as one of baseball’s best players from 2009 through 2014 and, as Keri notes, Zobrist’s versatility added value that WAR doesn’t reflect.
  • Zobrist’s deal should help move the markets for hitters like Yoenis Cespedes, Justin Upton and Alex Gordon, August Fagerstrom of FanGraphs writes. Fagerstrom also notes that the structure of Zobrist’s contract (which only pays him $10MM next season) and the salary-shedding trade of Castro to the Yankees strongly suggest that the Cubs can continue to make moves, particularly given that they were willing to bid heavily on David Price.
  • The Zobrist contract and the Castro deal improve the Cubs, but perhaps not enough to justify the expense, ESPN’s Keith Law writes (Insider-only). Exchanging Castro for Zobrist and Adam Warren should improve the Cubs by “a couple wins” next season, but the end of Zobrist’s contract could be ugly, given that advanced fielding numbers suggest his defense has already declined.
  • Zobrist is a great match for the Cubs, FOX Sports’ Jon Morosi writes. Since Zobrist rarely strikes out, he fits well with the strikeout-heavy Cubs offense, and since he can play multiple positions, he’ll help the Cubs find the best spots to use young players like Kyle Schwarber and Javier Baez. Meanwhile, they can effectively pay three quarters of Zobrist’s contract with money they previously owed Castro.

NL Central Notes: Chapman, Cubs, Pirates

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The domestic violence allegations against closer Aroldis Chapman will likely make it very difficult for the Reds to trade him, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale writes. Police records indicate that, in late October, Chapman allegedly choked his girlfriend, shoved her against a wall and fired eight gunshots in his garage. The allegations appear to have derailed the Reds’ trade of Chapman to the Dodgers. “I know we can’t touch him. Our owner would never go for that. And I’m getting the sense from other teams that they feel the same way,” one NL executive says. “Yeah, we know talent can cover up some character flaws, but domestic violence is such a hot topic now.” Spurred by cases involving Ray Rice and others in the NFL, domestic violence has become a high-profile issue in sports, and a team trading for Chapman would likely now be opening itself to a barrage of criticism. It doesn’t look like MLB’s investigation into Chapman’s situation will be resolved quickly, either. Nightengale notes that Chapman’s situation could lead to changes in the way MLB teams announce player acquisitions, potentially including language about completing background checks as well as physicals. Here are more notes from the NL Central.

  • The Cubs have maintained steady contact with Jason Heyward’s representation, FOX Sports’ Jon Morosi tweets. It’s uncertain, however, whether they’ll continue to have interest after agreeing to terms with Ben Zobrist. Heyward has lately been connected to the Giants, Angels and Cardinals.
  • One possibility for the Cardinals if they can’t re-sign Heyward is to sign Alex Gordon for less, Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports suggests (Twitter links). With the savings, they could then pursue NPB starter Kenta Maeda. Gordon could play right field in 2016, then move to left if the Cardinals decline Matt Holliday’s option for the following season.
  • The Pirates are interested in re-signing Sean Rodriguez, Travis Sawchik of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review tweets. Rodriguez batted a modest .246/.281/.362 with the Bucs in 2015 but helped with his versatility, playing competent defense while splitting his time between first and the corner outfield positions (and also occasionally helping elsewhere in the infield).
  • The Bucs are exploring a variety of possibilities at first base, writes MLB.com’s Adam Berry. Specifically, Berry writes that the Pirates have expressed interest in Mike Napoli, although the right-handed Napoli seems like a slightly awkward fit given the presence of the right-handed Michael Morse on the Bucs’ roster. After non-tendering Pedro Alvarez, the Pirates are looking for a new first baseman to form a bridge to top prospect Josh Bell.

Gerardo Parra Has Received Three-Year Offers

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Free agent outfielder Gerardo Parra has three-year offers “currently in hand” but would like to receive a four-year deal, SB Nation’s Chris Cotillo writes. It’s unclear which teams have made those three-year offers, although Cotillo notes that the Giants, Royals and Cubs all have serious interest. Giants GM Bobby Evans told MLBTR on Tuesday that he had spoken with Parra’s camp, although he also noted that he had spoken with representatives of other available outfielders as well. FOX Sports’ Jon Morosi recently reported that the Royals liked Parra as a backup plan in case they were unable to retain Alex Gordon. In addition to the Giants, Royals and Cubs, the Mets have also recently been connected to Parra.

The 28-year-old Parra’s relative youth and solid .291/.328/.452 2015 season should help him land a healthy new contract this winter. He also has a strong reputation as a defensive outfielder, even though his fielding statistics took a surprisingly big step backward last season. As MLBTR’s Steve Adams noted in August, a four-year deal wouldn’t be a shock for Parra if teams still view him as having plus defense.

Yankees To Acquire Starlin Castro For Adam Warren, Brendan Ryan

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The Yankees and Cubs have agreed to a trade that will send Starlin Castro to New York, pending medical reviews.  The deal will also see right-hander Adam Warren and Brendan Ryan (listed as a player to be named later) heading to the Cubs.

Castro, 26 in March, is a three-time All-Star that struggled mightily for much of the 2015 campaign but had a strong finish to the season and an even better showing in the playoffs. Overall, Castro batted .265/.296/.375 last season, marking the second time in the past three seasons in which he’s delivered a well-below average output on offense. However, the 2014 campaign was excellent, as Castro batted .292/.339/.438 with 14 home runs. The Yankees will be counting on Castro to look more like his 2014 and the late-2015 versions of himself over the course of the next four seasons that remain on his contract.

A total of $38MM remains on the seven-year, $60MM contract extension Castro signed three years ago. With the Yankees, he will, presumably, step in as the everyday second baseman for the foreseeable future. His addition calls into question what the Yanks will do with incumbent second basemen Dustin Ackley and Rob Refsnyder, who had previously been slated to platoon in 2016. While one could remain on the roster as a utility option, it’s tough to envision the club keeping both players and Castro on the active roster next year.

Warren, 28, will give the Cubs a right-hander that was one of the more valuable swingmen in the game last season. The former fourth-round pick appeared in 43 games for the Yankees, making 17 starts and 26 relief appearances en route to a career-high 131 1/3 innings. In that time, Warren posted a 3.29 ERA with 7.1 K/9, 2.7 BB/9 and a 45.2 percent ground-ball rate. Those numbers are more or less commensurate with the production he delivered from 2013-14 while working almost exclusively out of the bullpen (101 relief appearances, two starts) and can be a reasonable expectation for him going forward. (If anything, one could perhaps forecast slightly better results due to the move to the National League.) He can be controlled for another three years in arbitration.

Ryan, 34 in March, exercised his $1MM player option this offseason. Ryan has not been terribly productive since coming to New York, taking just 289 plate appearances and compiling a poor .201/.244/.271 batting line over his three years with the team. Still, he is valued most for his glove and he can contribute at second base and in other infield roles.

Joel Sherman of the New York Post (on Twitter) and ESPN’s Buster Olney (on Twitter) first reported that Castro was New York-bound.  YES Network’s Jack Curry (Twitter link) reported that Adam Warren and a PTBNL were going to the Cubs.   Jon Heyman of CBS Sports tweeted that the PTBNL was Brendan Ryan.  Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Cubs To Sign Ben Zobrist

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Ben Zobrist’s free agency has reached its long-awaited conclusion as the veteran elected to join an exciting, young Cubs roster. He’ll reportedly receive a four-year, $56MM contract that comes with full no-trade protection in the first three years and an eight-team no-trade list in year four.

The deal will reunite the utilityman with former Rays manager Joe Maddon, who now runs the dugout in Chicago. Zobrist, who is represented by Octagon, will take home a $2MM signing bonus, $10MM in 2016, $16MM in both 2017 and 2018, then $12MM in 2019.

The addition of Zobrist creates a number of logjams on the Chicago roster, as his best positions — corner outfield and second base — are currently occupied by a combination of Kyle Schwarber, Jorge Soler, Javier Baez and Starlin Castro. Then again, the Cubs are said to be discussing a trade of Castro to the Yankees,* which would potentially free up second base and move Baez into a super-utility role (provided he isn’t traded himself).

Zobrist, 35 next May, is coming off a season in which he batted a combined .276/.359/.450 in 535 plate appearances between Oakland and Kansas City. The switch-hitter handled both right-handed pitchers and left-handed pitchers well and delivered arguably his best offensive season in the past three years despite splitting most of his time between the pitcher-friendly O.Co Coliseum and Kauffman Stadium.

Defensive metrics were down on Zobrist this season, though one has to wonder whether or not knee surgery that he underwent early in the year sapped his range and led to the uncharacteristically low ratings placed upon his glove by Defensive Runs Saved and Ultimate Zone Rating. Zobrist has typically graded out as a well-above-average defender in the outfield corners and at second base, and he also comes with big league experience at shortstop, third base and first base. That defensive versatility is one of the reasons that he was such a hot commodity on this winter’s free-agent market, with upwards of a dozen clubs connected to him at various times.

Zobrist was long tied to the Mets, Giants, Braves and Nationals, but the Cubs re-emerged as an apparent suitor in media reports earlier this afternoon. Zobrist’s priorities were said to be a winning team and a team that is relatively close to his Nashville home, and the Cubs check both of those boxes.

*Editor’s Note: A trade sending Castro to New York was reported later in the same evening.

Tommy Stokke of FanRag Sports tweeted that Zobrist would sign with the Cubs. Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports tweeted the contract terms. Jon Heyman of CBS Sports and the New York Post’s Ken Davidoff reported details of the no-trade provision and annual breakdown.

Ben Zobrist Choosing Between Mets, Cubs

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5:43pm: Zobrist is choosing between the Cubs and Mets, according to Rosenthal (Twitter link). The two have made comparable offers, says Rosenthal, so the decision comes down to which club he’d rather join. The Nationals are now on the periphery of talks, Rosenthal adds.

5:26pm: Heyman tweets that the Mets, Giants and Nationals are all willing to go to four years on Zobrist.

4:36pm: Rosenthal hears the same as Rogers — the Cubs are in on Zobrist, he tweets. However, Chicago would need other moves to come together before signing Zobrist. The Cubs, of course, have reportedly been discussing infielder Javier Baez with other teams. Starlin Castro’s name, too, has been frequently mentioned in trade rumors over the past several months.

3:39pm: Zobrist has at least one four-year offer in hand and could make his decision within the “next several hours,” Jon Morosi of FOX Sports tweets.

ESPNChicago.com’s Jesse Rogers adds on Twitter that the Cubs are “not out” of the Zobrist sweepstakes but also don’t seem like the favorite to sign him.

3:34pm: Contrary to prior indications, the Nationals have not met in person with Zobrist and don’t have anything lined up to do so at present, according to reports from Chelsea Janes of the Washington Post (via Twitter) and Mark Zuckerman of CSNmidatlantic.com (Twitter link). But they have met with his representatives and the team has made a “nice, hard push” to acquire Zobrist, per a tweet from the Post’s James Wagner.

Janes provides a full quote from Rizzo, on Twitter: “We have plans, not necessarily to meet him face-to-face, but we’ll keep those to ourselves.”

1:46pm: Zobrist is talking over his decision with his wife and a decision could come as soon as this evening, his agent tells Kristie Ackert of the New York Daily News (Twitter link).

1:03pm: A source tells Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports (Twitter link) that there’s “no way” Zobrist has received such an offer.

Meanwhile, a source with the Mets says that the team did not make such an offer and wouldn’t match it, Joel Sherman of the New York Post tweets.

1:02pm: Free agent infielder/outfielder Ben Zobrist has been as heavily pursued as expected, but his market is apparently reaching heights not previously anticipated. One unidentified team has made him a four-year, $80MM offer, Bob Nightengale of USA Today reports on Twitter. He adds that the Mets remain the favorites to land Zobrist.

Needless to say, that’s an incredible figure to hear connected with Zobrist. Most prior estimates have pegged his anticipated value more in the $15MM annual range, give or take a few million. Despite his consistent excellence, Zobrist is no longer posting quite the numbers he did during his heyday and is entering his age-35 season.

One relevant comp that has previously been discussed is Victor Martinez, another older player who was coming off of a big season at the plate when he inked with the Tigers for four years and $68MM. While Martinez had obvious defensive limitations, whereas Zobrist can play just about everywhere, the latter is also not the offensive force that Martinez was. All said, then, there are some general similarities in their market outlook, and going all the way to eighty million would add an additional $3MM annually to what Martinez achieved.

The latest reports all suggest that Zobrist’s decision is coming soon, with the Nationals and Mets said to be leading the way. The Giants and possibly the Dodgers are also said to be in the mix, too. Of course, late-emerging mystery teams have driven up bidding on plenty of previous occasions, and Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com did tweet earlier today that some believe other clubs could still enter the fray.

Cubs, Yankees Discussing Castro Trade; Gardner Not Involved

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5:08pm: Joel Sherman of the New York Post reports (via Twitter) that Gardner is not part of the current talks between the Yankees and Cubs. Sherman adds that the two teams are working on multiple scenarios in trade talks. Sherman also tweets that Jacoby Ellsbury isn’t involved in talks. Jon Heyman of CBS Sports characterizes the trade talks as “in early stages” (Twitter link).

4:53pm: The Cubs and Yankees are discussing a trade that would send infielder Starlin Castro to New York, report Ken Rosenthal and Jon Morosi of FOX Sports (Twitter link). Rosenthal recently reported that the Cubs were in on Ben Zobrist but needed other moves to come together before they could bring him on board. Mark Feinsand of the New York Daily News reported last month that the Yankees and Cubs had discussed a trade involving Castro and Brett Gardner, though it’s not clear if Gardner is involved in this iteration of talks.

Moving Castro would open up second base to either give Javier Baez a full-time look or to clear a spot for a Zobrist signing. On paper, a swap of Castro and Gardner would make sense. The remaining $38MM on Castro’s contract is an exact match with the remaining $38MM on Gardner’s deal, though Castro is guaranteed that sum over the life of four full seasons, whereas Gardner is promised $38MM over the next three years. Both players have a club option on their deal — a $16MM club option for the 2020 season ($1MM buyout) in Castro’s case and a $12.5MM club option for the 2019 season ($2MM buyout) in Gardner’s case.

Castro signed a seven-year, $60MM extension with Chicago back in August of 2012 at the tail end of what was a second consecutive All-Star season for the then-22-year-old. Since that time, he’s sandwiched an excellent 2014 campaign in between a pair of awful seasons at the plate, leading to a cumulative .265/.303/.383 batting line from 2013-15.

Gardner, meanwhile, had a typically strong first half but wilted in the second half of 2015 as he battled a wrist injury. Yankees hitting coach Alan Cockrell told the Journal News’ Chad Jennings last month that a seemingly innocuous hit-by-pitch early in the season actually submarined Gardner’s production in the second half. Gardner’s bat began to fade once he had received the maximum-allotted three cortisone shots a player can have in any one season.

Outfield Notes: Pollock, Heyward, Gomez, Gordon, Parra

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Here’s the latest news on some notable outfielders…

  • The Indians asked the Diamondbacks for A.J. Pollock in exchange for Danny Salazar, Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic reports.  Pollock has been an in-demand piece from several rival teams as the D’Backs have looked for high-end young pitchers like Salazar or Shelby Miller, to name two.  Arizona GM Dave Stewart says he’s willing to listen to offers, “but with the understanding that we’re not entering any room with the intention to trade A.J. Pollock.”  D’Backs CEO Derrick Hall described Pollock as “nearly untouchable” earlier this week, so it remains unlikely that the Snakes would actually move the star center fielder.
  • By signing John Lackey rather than a higher-priced ace, the Cubs will use some of those savings to pursue Jason Heyward, Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times writes.  If Heyward can’t be signed, the Cubs’ backup options would be to sign Alex Gordon or try to acquire Carlos Gomez from the Astros.
  • Speaking of teams with Plan-B outfield ideas, the Royals are interested in Gerardo Parra if they can’t bring Gordon back, FOX Sports’ Jon Paul Morosi tweets.  Parra is hopeful of landing a four-year contract, according to SB Nation’s Chris Cotillo (Twitter link), since he’s getting attention from multiple teams.  The Giants, Mariners, Mets and (to a limited extent) Orioles have also been linked to Parra at various points this winter.
  • If Jeff Francoeur doesn’t re-sign with the Phillies, ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick sees the Brewers, Pirates and Rangers as possible fits to add the veteran outfielder as a bench bat.

Yankees Notes: Davis, Marlins, Miller, Eovaldi

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The Yankees aren’t known for having quiet offseasons, yet their relative lack of moves this winter isn’t just the calm before the storm, Mark Feinsand of the New York Daily News writes.  “There’s a reason they haven’t been attached to any big free agent.  They’re not in on them,” one Major League executive tells Feinsand.  Another exec says the Yankees are being truthful when they say they’re not planning to add to their payroll, as “that’s what they’ve been telling everybody publicly and privately.”  Here’s some more from the Bronx…

  • The Yankees “said they had a real interest in [Chris] Davis” earlier in the year, a source tells George A. King III of the New York Post, but backed off since “he wants Teixeira money.”  Mark Teixeira’s eight-year, $180MM deal would certainly seem to be well above the Yankees’ current comfort zone, and it could be a stretch in general as MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes projected Davis for a six-year, $144MM deal.  (Then again, Davis’ agent Scott Boras was also the one who negotiated Teixeira’s contract back in 2008.)  King hears that the Blue Jays have been linked to Davis in “chatter.”
  • Also from King, the Marlins “have liked” Yankees pitchers Bryan Mitchell and Adam Warren, with Miami looking at Mitchell as a starter and Warren in the bullpen.  While both arms are interesting trade chips, King notes that it would obviously take a lot more for the Yankees to obtain a major Marlins player like Marcell Ozuna.
  • If the Yankees are to meet their goal of obtaining a quality starter in his pre-arb years, an AL executive tells King that dealing Andrew Miller might be the only way.  “Nobody else they have, especially if they aren’t going to trade their top prospects, brings that young starter back but Miller,” the exec said.  Joel Sherman of the New York Post opines that in return for Miller, the Bombers would demand a pitcher at least as well-regarded as Eduardo Rodriguez, who the Red Sox obtained for Miller at the 2014 trade deadline.
  • Also from Sherman’s piece, he hears from a rival executive who asked the Yankees about Nathan Eovaldi this winter, though “talks did not progress far.”  The fact that GM Brian Cashman was willing to discuss Eovaldi at all is a sign, Sherman opines, that the club is truly open to hearing all options to upgrade the roster.
  • Sherman notes that the Cubs still consider Brett Gardner one of several backup options if they’re unable to land another center field target.  A Gardner-for-Starlin Castro rumor surfaced last month though the Yankees were said to want pitching in a Gardner deal.

Latest On Shelby Miller Trade Talks

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12:47AM: Other sources tell Wittenmyer that no deal between the two sides is close.  Jorge Soler is still a part of trade discussions between the Cubs and Braves (Twitter links).

12:35AM: The Braves and Cubs are close to a deal that would involve righty Shelby Miller going to Chicago and slugging infield prospect Javier Baez headed to Atlanta in the return, Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times reports (Twitter link).

Miller has been one of the winter’s most oft-discussed trade candidates, with as many as 20 teams reportedly checking in on his availability.  Atlanta has demanded a major return in any deal for the 25-year-old starter, with such names as the Diamondbacks’ A.J. Pollock, the Yankees’ Luis Severino and the Marlins’ Marcell Ozuna all being asked about in talks with their respective clubs.  The Cubs were one of several teams linked with Miller, with Jorge Soler and Baez both being mentioned as possible trade chips.

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