Quick Hits: Cubs, Cahill, Davis, Judge
Yesterday, we heard about several Cubs free agent signees who took less money to play in Chicago. Jon Heyman of MLB Network (via Twitter) illuminates a few of the teams that missed out. We know the Orioles were in on Dexter Fowler as well as the Nationals and Cardinals interest in Jason Heyward. Ben Zobrist turned down better offers from the Nationals and Mets while Trevor Cahill declined to join the Pirates on a stronger offer. Of course, the details of those hypothetical deals are unknown. For example, the Nationals probably made heavy use of deferred money in their offers, reducing the present day value of their proposals. Heyman also has some contract details for reserve clause signees (on Twitter).
Here’s more from around the league:
- The Pirates offer to Cahill was to pitch as a starter, writes Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun Times. However, rumors of a two-year offer may have been exaggerated. Cahill himself claims to be unaware of any two-year proposals. In my opinion, Cahill was smart to remain in Chicago as a reliever. His skill set plays particularly well out of the bullpen and could set up a strong multi-year offer in free agency next winter.
- New Athletics outfielder Khris Davis is happy with his new ball club, writes Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. The former Brewer saw the writing on the wall when Milwaukee dealt away several veterans in the last calendar year. Davis, originally picked in the 2009 draft, was the second-to-last player from that draft class with the club. The Brewers still have Scooter Gennett penciled in to play second base.
- When Yankees prospects Aaron Judge and Jorge Mateo homered earlier today, they offered a glimpse of the future, writes Wallace Matthews of ESPN. The pair rank first and second in the Yankees farm system. Judge, 23, has a shot to contribute to the club in 2016 while Mateo, 20, is a little way off. Judge is a power hitting outfielder who hit 20 home runs in 540 plate appearances last season. Mateo is a speedy shortstop with 82 stolen bases in 2015 (500 plate appearances).
NL Injury Notes: McKirahan, Walden, Hamilton
Braves lefty Andrew McKirahan has a torn UCL and will likely have Tommy John surgery, David O’Brien of the Atlanta Journal Constitution tweets. McKirahan will visit with Dr. James Andrews, according to MLB.com’s Mark Bowman (on Twitter). McKirahan left Wednesday’s game with discomfort in his left forearm and had an MRI. He had previously had Tommy John surgery in 2012. Since then, he headed from the Cubs to the Marlins in the 2014 Rule 5 Draft, then to the Braves on a waiver claim. He posted a 5.93 ERA (albeit with a decent 7.2 K/9 and 3.3 BB/9) in 27 1/3 innings in 2015, missing a significant portion of the year after a PED suspension. Here are more quick notes on injuries.
- Cardinals righty Jordan Walden‘s return from the shoulder issues that sidelined him for most of last year appears to be going well so far, writes MLB.com’s Jenifer Langosch. Walden pitched a scoreless inning against the Astros Friday. Walden was a key part of the Braves’ bullpens in 2013 and 2014 and was expected to help the Cardinals after arriving in the late 2014 trade involving Jason Heyward and Shelby Miller. He only pitched 10 1/3 innings last season, however, none after April 29.
- Reds outfielder Billy Hamilton was scratched from yesterday’s game with a stiff right shoulder, MLB.com’s Mark Sheldon tweets. Hamilton had surgery on the shoulder near the end of last season to fix a torn labrum and had conceded late last month that the shoulder wasn’t completely healthy (although he did say it was “feeling good” and that he wouldn’t be limited in Spring Training). There’s no indication yet, however, that the speedster’s current shoulder stiffness is serious.
Chicago Notes: Sox, CarGo, Cubs, Fowler
The White Sox have long been connected to both free agents and trade targets that can help the club in the corner outfield, and Bruce Levine of CBS Chicago/670 The Score writes that the Sox aren’t done searching for upgrades. The Sox could turn their focus to Rockies right fielder Carlos Gonzalez and Reds right fielder Jay Bruce, per Levine, though his report makes no indication that there have been trade discussions about either player. One rival general manager told Levine that the Rockies asked for his top two minor leaguers, plus a big league player and absorption of most of the remaining $37MM on Gonzalez’s contract. Of course, that’s a highly subjective statement; for instance, the top two minor leaguers for a club like the Angels — a team that has been linked to outfield trade targets — would be considerably less valuable than the top two minor leaguers for a club like the Rays or Cardinals, each of which was linked to outfield trade targets this winter as well. What’s clear from the anonymous GM quoted by Levine is that the Rockies’ asking price would be steep, and the team seemingly doesn’t have much interest in eating salary on the deal.
A bit more on Chicago’s two clubs…
- The Cubs finalized contracts with all of their pre-arbitration players today, the club announced, and the Sun-Times’ Gordon Wittenmyer notes that the pre-arb agreements should take the Cubs’ payroll north of $150MM for the first time. While the team presently sits just shy of that mark at $149.232MM, awarding the final roster spot to a player like Rex Brothers or Shane Victorino, who have base salaries of $1.42MM and $1MM, respectively, would push the Cubs beyond that milestone. Somewhat notably, Wittenmyer points out that reigning Rookie of the Year Kris Bryant was renewed for a healthy $652K — a considerably larger sum than most pre-arbitration players (especially players with less than a year of service) would receive.
- While Bryant and his pre-arb peers were forced to take whatever the Cubs decided to give them, others have reportedly chosen to come to Chicago despite receiving similar or greater offers elsewhere. Jesse Sanchez of ESPNChicago.com says that held true of Dexter Fowler, who rejected offers from multiple other clubs “for multiple years and more money.” While the magnitude of the contract discounts in some Cubs’ free agent contracts seem to have been somewhat overplayed — indeed, in some cases, factors such as length and the presence of opt-outs in alternative offers make it unclear whether there was a true discount at all — this report certainly suggests that Fowler had plenty of opportunities to earn a good bit more elsewhere. “You create the right culture,” said manager Joe Maddon, “you would get guys wanting to stay with you longer, irrespective of money.”
Central Notes: Cole, Perez, Brewers, Villanueva
Pirates GM Neal Huntington tells Bill Brink of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette that the club “made a mistake” in determining ace Gerrit Cole‘s 2016 salary upon their initial take. “Gerrit’s base salary a year ago plus his bonus took him above our scale,” Huntington explained. “We initially did not incorporate the bonus that he earned last year for making the All-Star team. We made that adjustment, took him above our scale. Gerrit agreed. Unhappy with that. We understand that, we can empathize with him. At the same time there is a system in place that is negotiated by the union and by Major League Baseball.” Over the weekend, Cole voiced some displeasure with his modest salary, although the scale and the system to which Huntington alluded aren’t uncommon. Many clubs use algorithms based on service time and performance to determine the salary of pre-arbitration players, and the Pirates are simply acting as they would with any of their pre-arbitration players by adhering to that scale. (ESPN’s Buster Olney opines that the team would be wise to make a small concession on Cole’s behalf, suggesting a fairly marginal increase to $750K as a means of good will to acknowledge Cole’s importance to the club.) For those interested in reading more on the topic, MLBTR’s Zach Links examined the means by which pre-arb salaries are determined a couple of years ago.
Here’s more from the game’s Central divisions…
- There’s positive movement on the negotiation front between the Royals and catcher Salvador Perez, Jon Heyman of MLB Network tweets. The sides have long been working toward a new deal for the backstop, who made good on his low-priced, early-career extension. It certainly will be interesting to see what kind of contractual arrangement is arrived at if something gets across the finish line.
- The Brewers‘ center field situation is as wide open as spring battles get, and Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel takes a look at where things stand. There are as many as nine plausible candidates to claim the Opening Day gig, with possible bench spots and minor league opportunities also at stake, so there’s plenty of intrigue to go around. Skipper Craig Counsell calls it a “roster puzzle” that needs to be solved, and Haudricourt provides plenty of preliminary clues in the interesting piece.
- Cubs third base prospect Christian Villanueva suffered a broken right fibula during a Sunday workout and will miss several months recovering from the injury, reports MLB.com’s Carrie Muskat. Villanueva, who was expected to have surgery today, according to Muskat, was injured upon landing after leaping for a ball in play, said manager Joe Maddon. “It’s just crazy,” said Maddon. “It’s really unfortunate. This kid came in, ready to go. … It’s a tough break, literally, for him — he’s such a good kid.” Villanueva ranked 26th on MLB.com’s list of Top 30 Cubs prospects, though he’s fallen off Baseball America’s version of that same list after multiple prior appearances.
NL Central Notes: Russell, Cubs, Weaver, Reds
The Cubs are convinced that young Addison Russell will thrive at shortstop, as ESPN.com’s Jerry Crasnick writes. Russell is just four years removed from anchoring the Pace High School Patriots’ starting infield, but they believe that he is mature beyond his years.”He’s got a good head on his shoulders,” Cubs president of baseball operations Theo Epstein said of the 22-year-old. “He’s our youngest player, but he might be the one we worry about the least.” Russell was the No. 11 overall pick in the 2012 draft by the Athletics and figured to be a big part of their future until he was shipped to Chicago in the Jeff Samardzija trade. In his first big league season, Russell slashed .242/.307/.389 as he adjusted to major league pitching. This year, the Cubs are hoping that the shortstop will provide them with a line closer to the combined .295/.350/.508 he posted at the Class A+ and Double-A levels in 2014.
Here’s more out of the NL Central:
- The Cubs are stacked with position players and they have great trade chips if they want to go out and add a pitcher, MLB.com’s Phil Rogers writes. After signing Jason Heyward and Ben Zobrist this witer, the Cubs have a bit of a logjam as they try to get playing time for Kyle Schwarber, Jorge Soler, and Javier Baez. On top of that, the team has even more young hitters in the pipeline, so they can afford to work from their surplus.
- Cardinals prospect Luke Weaver is impressing early in Spring Training, as Jenifer Langosch of MLB.com writes. Weaver, ranked as one of St. Louis’ top prospects in 2016, projects to open this season at Double-A Springfield. Weaver has been working with veteran right-handers Adam Wainwright and Lance Lynn, Langosch notes, picking up tips on his curveball and release point. “We always try and figure out how to put some of the young players with guys they can watch and emulate a little bit,” Matheny explained to Langosch. “We just thought Luke would be one of the guys who would benefit from not just the spoken, but the watching the habits that have become second nature for Adam.”
- Reds Rule 5 picks Chris O’Grady and Jake Cave are eager to show what they can do in camp, as Mark Sheldon of MLB.com writes. It’s been nine years since the Reds last successfully carried a Rule 5 pick all season, Sheldon notes, when the club had a pair of excellent Rule 5 pickups in right-hander Jared Burton and outfielder Josh Hamilton. Cave, selected out of the Yankees organization, spoke to Sheldon about the importance of maximizing an opportunity with Cincinnati, as the Yankees have a fairly notable logjam in the outfield, whereas the Reds have a clearer path to at-bats. Manager Bryan Price spoke to Sheldon about each player’s chances, noting that video alone of O’Grady on the mound has impressed him, while Cave faces a challenge going from an everyday role in the minors to either a platoon situation or a reserve that would move all over the outfield.
NL Central Links: Brooks, Soler, Williams, Morse, Wilkins
Newly-acquired Cubs righty Aaron Brooks is looking forward to playing for his new team, though as he told reporters (including MLB.com’s Carrie Muskat), he’s already run into some online confusion. The Aaron Brooks who has played guard for the Bulls for the last two NBA seasons has dibs as the most famous Chicago athlete with that name. “I’ve talked to [the basketball player] on Twitter before because everybody thinks I’m him,” the Cubs’ Brooks said. “People keep tagging me….All they have to do is look at the profile picture and they’ll know it’s not me.” Here’s more from the NL Central:
- The Padres, Rays and Indians all offered various pitching and outfield prospects to the Cubs in Jorge Soler trade packages, but Chicago decided to stick with the highly-touted outfielder, CBS Chicago’s Bruce Levine reports. While Tampa and Cleveland were linked to Soler multiple times this winter, this is the first time the Padres have been mentioned in connection with Soler. San Diego’s outfield currently features Matt Kemp, Melvin Upton and Jon Jay slated for most of the playing time with Travis Jankowski, Jabari Blash and Alex Dickerson in the mix for bench and platoon jobs. Had Soler been acquired (depending on when the Padres/Cubs talks took place), it’s fair to assume that the Padres wouldn’t have acquired Jay from St. Louis and Soler would’ve been playing every day in either left or right field. This is just my speculation, but since the Cubs were known to be targeting young pitching for Soler, I would guess Chicago floated the names of Tyson Ross and Andrew Cashner in return.
- From that same Levine item, Soler said he isn’t concerned about how the Cubs‘ acquisitions of Dexter Fowler and Shane Victorino will impact his playing time. “I will get my opportunity and chance. I will do my job and try to help the team,” Soler said through a translator.
- In a recent talk with MLB.com’s Mark Sheldon and other media about the Reds‘ trades of pricey veterans over the last year, Cincinnati GM Dick Williams stressed that “we’re not saving to create a profit, we’re saving to invest in the future, for sure. We’ve got the biggest amateur signing pool this year, when you combine domestic and international….I talked about investing in the analytics and sports science. We’ll be investing in personnel, scouting personnel, new player development initiatives. I’ll be talking a lot about that over the course of this year as we roll things out, but we’ll put that money [to] work for sure.”
- Mike Morse took some grounders at third base, though it’s safe to say he’s not expecting to do the same for the Pirates during the season. “We’re not trying to get me to play over there — unless the game goes 28 innings and no one’s left,” Morse told reporters (including Rob Biertempfel of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review), noting that he routinely spends a bit of time around the infield every year in camp. Morse has played nine games at third at the MLB level, though none since 2009.
- If you’re wondering why it’s been over two months without a new Andy Wilkins transaction here on MLB Trade Rumors, it’s because he has seemingly settled down (finally) with the Brewers. Wilkins discussed his wild 2015 with reporters (including MLB.com’s Adam McCalvy) and how he coped with six different transactions that made him a member of seven different organizations — the White Sox, Blue Jays, Dodgers, Orioles, Mariners, Rangers and Brewers — within roughly nine months’ time. Speaking of nine-month spans, these moves came while Wilkins and his wife were expecting their first child, who was born in December just two days before Milwaukee claimed the first baseman on waivers.
Cafardo’s Latest: Analytics, Archer, Soler, Lucroy, Byrd
John Henry’s recent comments about how the Red Sox have “perhaps overly relied on numbers” in recent years and became too focused on analytics drew quite a bit of reaction from around baseball, the Boston Globe’s Nick Cafardo writes. MLB Network’s Brian Kenny believes “the enemy of the Red Sox is impatience, not analytics,” noting that properly analyzing the numbers could’ve told Boston that Jackie Bradley or Rusney Castillo wouldn’t be stars overnight, or that Hanley Ramirez and Pablo Sandoval were risky signings. On the other hand, some scouts praised the Sox for their apparent turn to traditional evaluation over sabermetrics. The Red Sox have been at the forefront of the analytics movement over the last 15 years, so if they succeed in this new direction, Cafardo wonders if other teams could follow suit. Here’s more from Cafardo’s latest column…
- Cafardo points to one notable victory for scouting over analytics from 2011, when the Rays‘ then-top scout convinced Andrew Friedman to obtain Chris Archer as part of the eight-player blockbuster that sent Matt Garza to the Cubs. The scout was sold on Archer, while Friedman’s analytics evaluation were pointing him towards righty Chris Carpenter, who ended up pitching only 15 2/3 innings at the MLB level.
- There’s still “a lot of interest” in Jorge Soler on the trade market, which is an option for the Cubs as they sort out their crowded outfield. With Dexter Fowler rather unexpectedly returning to Chicago, the Cubs have Jason Heyward playing every day in right (or sometimes center) and then Fowler, Soler, Kyle Schwarber and possibly minor league signee Shane Victorino all juggling for playing time, plus Ben Zobrist and Javier Baez also capable of playing left.
- The Brewers are still considering a Jonathan Lucroy trade, as “there’s still buzz in the scouting community” that a deal could come in Spring Training. Lucroy would have to prove himself healthy in the wake of a 2015 season shortened by a concussion and a fractured toe. If he looks good in Cactus League action, that could be enough for another team to pull the trigger on a deal.
- It’s been a quiet offseason for Marlon Byrd rumors, as Cafardo notes that the veteran outfielder “isn’t getting much love on the market.” Interest in Byrd could pick up as teams sort through their roster options, however, and Cafardo lists the Angels, Blue Jays and Orioles as speculative fits. Byrd had 24 homers and an .847 OPS as recently as the 2013 season, but while he’s still managed to hit for power (48 homers) over the last two years, the 38-year-old’s batting average and OBP have fallen off considerably.
Dexter Fowler Notes: White Sox, Orioles, Jones
Here’s some of the fallout surrounding Dexter Fowler‘s surprising return to the Cubs, especially as it pertains to his would-be new team in Baltimore…
- The White Sox offered Fowler a two-year contract worth more than $17MM, CBS Chicago’s Bruce Levine reports. The offer was for a set two years and didn’t include an opt-out clause or a mutual option after the first season. Fowler’s deal with the Cubs guarantees him $8MM in 2016, and then he and the team can either both enact a $9MM mutual option for 2017 or the Cubs can buy Fowler out for $5MM. It’s clear that Fowler and agent Casey Close were focused on flexibility after the 2016 season, as the Orioles’ refusal to include an opt-out clause is what caused the breakdown in talks between the two sides. The Sox have been known to be interested in Fowler and others this winter as they continue to look for corner outfield help, though the club hasn’t yet done much in the way of major moves to address left or right field. Melky Cabrera and Avisail Garcia are still on hand as the incumbent starters, though both had sub-replacement level seasons in 2015. Signing Fowler would’ve represented a major upgrade for the Pale Hose yet also cost the team the 27th overall pick in the draft since Fowler was a qualifying offer free agent. The top White Sox pick (the 10th overall selection) was protected, with the later first-round selection given to the team as compensation for Jeff Samardzija signing with the Giants.
- With Fowler no longer an option, the Orioles are likely to pursue another corner outfielder, MLB.com’s Brittany Ghiroli writes. Manager Buck Showalter is satisfied with his internal options, which include the likes of Mark Trumbo (who will probably see lot of DH time), Nolan Reimold, Henry Urrutia, Dariel Alvarez and Rule 5 draft pick Joey Rickard on the 40-man roster. Urrutia is the only left-handed hitter of the bunch, so one of the righty-swingers will be used to complement new addition Hyun-soo Kim in left field. Ghiroli cites Jay Bruce, Austin Jackson or Pedro Alvarez as possible targets for the Orioles, with Alvarez joining the club as a DH and Trumbo then getting most of his playing time in right. With so many right-handed hitting outfielders already in the mix, left-handed hitting free agents like David Murphy, Grady Sizemore or David DeJesus also make sense as speculative fits.
- One of the many unusual aspects of the Fowler/Orioles drama was that Adam Jones seemingly had verbal confirmation from Fowler that the outfielder was indeed joining the team. Jones addressed that situation with reporters (including Eduardo A. Encina of the Baltimore Sun), saying he was surprised to learn Fowler wasn’t signing with the O’s but there was no issue between he and Fowler. “At the end of the day, he’s happy where he’s at. His family is happy in Chicago, so good for him,” Jones said. He also expressed that this gives an opportunity to the Orioles’ other outfielders, and noted that the O’s could pursue midseason upgrades with the money they saved on Fowler’s contract.
Cubs To Sign Shane Victorino To Minor League Deal
The Cubs have agreed to terms with outfielder Shane Victorino, FOX Sports’ Ken Rosenthal tweets. Victorino will receive a minor league deal with a Spring Training invite, tweets Mark Gonzales of the Chicago Tribune. He will receive $1M plus a possible $1M in incentives if he makes the team, tweets ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick. Victorino is a client of John Boggs & Associates.
The news that the Cubs have added another outfielder comes as somewhat of a surprise given their recent signing of Dexter Fowler. Jon Heyman tweets, though, that Victorino’s pact was already in place before the Fowler signing, so the team honored the deal.
Victorino, now 35, had a second straight disappointing season in 2015, batting .230/.308/.292 in 204 plate appearances split between the Red Sox and Angels. With Fowler, Jason Heyward, Kyle Schwarber, Jorge Soler, Ben Zobrist, Javier Baez and others in the Cubs’ outfield mix, Victorino faces a difficult path to playing time.
Cubs Re-Sign Dexter Fowler
In a stunning reversal, the Cubs have re-signed outfielder Dexter Fowler to a one-year deal with a mutual option for 2017, tweets Mark Gonzales of the Chicago Tribune. He’ll receive $8MM in 2016. The mutual option is for $9MM with a $5MM buyout (tweet). The Cubs have placed Zac Rosscup on the 60-day DL to make room on the 40-man roster.
Recent reports had Fowler agreeing to a three-year, $33MM deal with the Orioles, but Fowler denies he ever agreed to terms per Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times (tweet). Jon Morosi of Fox Sports (tweet) confirms the Orioles did not believe they had a deal in place with Fowler.
The signing reportedly fell through when Fowler demanded an early opt out after one season, tweets Bruce Levine of 670thescore.com. Per Jon Heyman (tweet), the Orioles did not want to lose a first round pick (compensation for Wei-Yin Chen) to sign a player for one season. When Baltimore balked, he turned down the $33MM guarantee for $13MM from Chicago.
The re-acquisition of Fowler also puts a new light on the Chris Coghlan trade which was announced about a half hour ago. The Cubs will now lose their second round draft pick for signing John Lackey. When Fowler appeared to be Baltimore-bound, they would have lost the associated compensation pick.
The addition of Fowler will give the Cubs plenty of outfield flexibility. They could opt to move Jason Heyward to his natural position of right field. Jorge Soler and Kyle Schwarber may share left field or another arrangement could be reached. Given that Fowler isn’t viewed as a positive defensive center fielder, it’s possible Heyward will remain penciled in up the middle. The club now has a wealth of outfield depth with Ben Zobrist and Javier Baez also in the mix for reps. At the press conference announcing the deal, GM Theo Epstein told reporters, “this is it. We’re not trading anyone else. We feel great about our outfield mix.”
Fowler’s high OBP profile should fit well anywhere within the Cubs lineup. Heyward and Zobrist are also candidates to bat first and second with Anthony Rizzo, Kris Bryant, Schwarber, and Soler as middle of the order threats. Fowler batted .250/.346/.411 with 17 home runs and 20 stolen bases in 2015. The switch-hitter has a history of better on base percentages including a career .363 OBP. His return takes pressure off Schwarber and Soler to perform at high levels.
It’s interesting to note that Fowler is now guaranteed less than the $15.8MM qualifying offer. The mutual option as structured appears very unlikely to be triggered by both sides. Way back in November, MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes predicted a four-year, $60MM contract for Fowler. Assuming the option is declined, Fowler will re-enter free agency prior to his age 31 season.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.