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Cubs Likely To Draft Appel Or Gray

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Major League Baseball's draft is still about six weeks away, but Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times writes that the Cubs are likely to draft either Stanford right-hander Mark Appel or Oklahoma right-hander Jonathan Gray with the No. 2 overall pick. Wittenmyer spoke about the draft to multiple team sources, including manager Dale Sveum who told him:

"Obviously, the two big boys, Appel and Gray, if those guys keep the velocity where it is and everything’s going good, I think it’s hard not to take one of them guys."

Appel and Gray are widely considered to be the top two pitching prospects in this year's draft, but other names such as high school outfielders Austin Meadows and Clint Frazier, as well as San Diego third baseman Kris Bryant and Indiana State lefty Sean Manaea have garnered attention as potential Top 5 selections.

The Cubs will have a bonus pool of roughly $10.6MM, Wittenmyer notes, with around $6MM allocated to the No. 2 overall slot. There has been some question as to what it will take to sign Appel, a Scott Boras client, after he fell to the Pirates at No. 8 last year but refused to sign for their $3.8MM offer.

If the report holds true, this would mark the first time the Cubs have selected a pitcher in the Top 10 since Mark Prior back in 2001. Since that time, the Cubs have had a Top 10 selection on four other occasions. Those picks were used on high school outfielder Ryan Harvey (sixth overall in 2003), high school third baseman Josh Vitters (third overall in 2007), high school shortstop Javier Baez (ninth in 2011) and high school outfielder Albert Almora (sixth overall in 2012).

The Cubs have taken college pitchers Hayden Simpson, Andrew Cashner and Bobby Brownlie in the first round since drafting Prior, though each came in the second half of the first round.

Central Links: Grilli, Cubs, Valverde

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The latest out of baseball's Central divisions…

  • Pirates closer Jason Grilli told ESPN's Buster Olney (Insider required) that he wouldn't trade his past trials and tribulations in his career because they've made his new role that much sweeter. Grilli relishes the chance to be "The Guy" at the end of games, and he was encouraged last season by then-teammate Joel Hanrahan telling him, "Grilli, you can definitely do this."
  • Cubs manager Dale Sveum recently said he'd be lying if the team's early struggles didn't have him thinking about his job security, but GM Jed Hoyer told ESPN's Jesse Rogers that Sveum's job is secure. "[Job security] shouldn't be what he's thinking about in the least," Hoyer told Rogers in voicing his support.
  • Tigers GM Dave Dombrowski addressed reporters regarding Jose Valverde yesterday (video link), noting that a 40-man roster move is on the horizon to get Valverde on the club. Dombrowski said he's pleased to have Valverde back in the fold and that no Triple-A time was necessary given his track record and how his stuff looked at Class A Lakeland. Valverde is throwing 93-95 mph and is throwing better than he was last season, per Dombrowski.

Quick Hits: Cubs, Dodgers, Padres

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Former Red Sox GM and current Cubs president Theo Epstein, speaking along with Athletics GM Billy Beane at a panel discussion in Boston on Monday, says that the big problem facing big-payroll teams is how to spend their extra money, Brian MacPherson of the Providence Journal reports. New rules have made it difficult to splurge in the draft or in the international market, and more and more younger players are signing long-term deals that buy out free agent seasons. That leaves the free agent market as the next obvious place to find talent. Big-payroll teams have historically dominated the free agent market, of course, but with so many players signing long-term with their current clubs, the free agent talent pool will be shallower in the coming years than it once was. "It's one thing to have an advantage as far as the amount of dollars you have, but if there aren't effective places to spend that money, what do you do with that advantage?" says Epstein.

Beane, meanwhile, has a different take, lamenting that, as a small-payroll GM, he isn't able to keep his players longer. "If we could have one thing, it would be to draft, develop and keep our own players," he says. "Having capital, it's not just about signing free agents. Having capital allows you to take your Gio Gonzalez and keep him through the rest of his career." Here are more notes from around the big leagues.

  • Cubs GM Jed Hoyer gave manager Dale Sveum his vote of confidence Tuesday, MLB.com's Carrie Muskat reports. "We’re all in this together," says Hoyer. "We’ve struggled, it’s been painful to watch because we keep on squandering leads. That’s on Theo and that’s on me. We have to figure out ways to get better. We’re not the most talented team in the league right now." The Cubs are currently 5-13.
  • Dodgers team president Stan Kasten expects the team's currently-stratospheric payroll to decrease as the team adds more talent from the minors, CBS Sports' Jon Heyman reports. The Dodgers are focusing on scouting and development, Kasten says, so that, in the future, the payroll "is not going to be where it is." The Dodgers are currently 9-10 and have been racked by injuries.
  • Ted Lilly is scheduled to start for the Dodgers Wednesday, and he'll be the Dodgers' eighth starter in their first 20 games, MLB.com's Ken Gurnick points out. (The other seven are Clayton Kershaw, Zack Greinke, Hyun-Jin Ryu, Josh Beckett, Chad Billingsley, Chris Capuano, and Stephen Fife.) The Dodgers' quandary of what to do with their starting pitching depth was a major story in spring training, and the Dodgers did, in fact, deal Aaron Harang to the Rockies. But after a slew of injuries (including today's revelation that Billingsley will have Tommy John surgery), that starting pitching depth is no more.
  • Playing badly might or might not yield big dividends for the Padres, notes Tom Krasovic of the San Diego Union-Tribune. Krasovic quotes Baseball America's Jim Callis, who points out that the top five picks in the draft are much more valuable than other picks, but Krasovic also notes that the Padres haven't done so well lately with top picks like Matt Bush and Donavan Tate. The Padres are currently 5-14.
  • Veteran Eddie Bonine, who recently signed a minor-league deal with the Padres after being released by the Diamondbacks, is trying to make it back to the big leagues as a knuckleballer, MLB.com's Corey Brock reports. Bonine used the knuckleball as a secondary pitch in the past, throwing it 19% of the time as member of the Tigers bullpen in 2010. Bonine missed the 2012 season after having Tommy John surgery.

Minor Moves: Leroux, Alberto Gonzalez, Maine

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Today's minor moves…

  • Former Pirates pitcher Chris Leroux signed with Japan's Yakult Swallows, tweeted Chris Cotillo last night.  The signing has since been confirmed by Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet.ca, who spoke to Leroux's agent, Fred Wray of Octagon.  Leroux received a $500K contract for 2013 that includes incentives and a 2014 vesting option, reports Nicholson-Smith.  The 29-year-old righty had been designated for assignment by the Pirates earlier this month, after which point he elected free agency.  He's never exceeded 25 big league innings in a season, tallying 63 2/3 Triple-A frames in 2012.
  • Infielder Alberto Gonzalez and righty John Maine have been outrighted to Triple-A by the Cubs and Marlins, respectively, according to the Pacific Coast League transactions page.  Both players had been designated for assignment on Friday, Gonzalez for Julio Borbon and Maine for Tom Koehler.
  • Three players currently reside in DFA limbo: the Indians' Fernando Nieve, the Mets' Aaron Laffey, and the Astros' Xavier Cedeno.

Trade Candidate: Carlos Villanueva

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29-year-old righty Carlos Villanueva has kicked off his Cubs career with three quality starts.  That's been a big part of the team's 3.11 rotation ERA, third-best in the National League.  The Cubs, however, have failed in most other aspects of the game and are already six games back in the NL Central with a 5-13 record.  Once again, the team's veterans need to be ready for the possibility of a summer trade.

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Because of his age and some decent rotation work for the Blue Jays last year, Villanueva was able to find a two-year, $10MM deal with the Cubs in December.  The Cubs had already signed Scott Baker and Scott Feldman at that point, and went on to add Edwin Jackson.  That's a whopping four free agent starters, but the depth has been necessary so far with Baker and Matt Garza on the shelf.  Garza's first minor league rehab start is scheduled for tomorrow, so he's projected to return in May.  Baker will be out until at least June, after undergoing Tommy John surgery a year ago.  Even with the uncertainty surrounding Baker, the Cubs have assembled significantly more rotation depth than they had last July, when they traded Paul Maholm and Ryan Dempster.  

So, there's a chance the Cubs move two starting pitchers again this summer.  With free agency looming, Garza is a prime candidate.  If he stays healthy and reasonably effective, Villanueva is another.  Though he has one of the slower fastballs you'll see from a right-handed starter, Villanueva has been effective since joining the Jays' rotation in late June of last year.  Since then he's started 19 games, with a 3.90 ERA, 8.0 K/9, 2.3 BB/9, and 1.67 HR/9 in 113 innings.  Some of his numbers in his brief Cubs career are unsustainable, but if Villanueva's walk and groundball rates stick, he should have continued success.  In particular, he shouldn't be quite so homer-prone moving forward.

Perhaps they underestimated Maholm at the time, but the Cubs were still able to acquire a top-90 prospect from the Braves in Arodys Vizcaino last summer.  Like Maholm, the Cubs can offer an additional full season of Villanueva's services, making him more than just a rental.  The Indians, Angels, and Phillies are a few early potential matches, should those teams remain on the fringe of contention.  Should the longball remain an issue for Villanueva, though, it could cause teams with hitters' parks to shy away.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Quick Hits: Cubs, Hudson, Hamilton

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Cubs manager Dale Sveum is upset with his team's recent play and says that players who don't perform won't have big-league jobs, Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun Times reports. That goes for top young players Starlin Castro and Anthony Rizzo. "I don’t think [anyone’s] invincible if you’re not performing," Sveum says regarding Castro and Rizzo. "It’s not about what we think can happen three or four years from now. It’s time to perform on a consistent basis."

Wittenmyer writes that Sveum's harsh words for Castro and Rizzo "threw a sudden dose of skepticism and doubt into the widespread assumptions about the Cubs’ core," but acknowledges that, in reality, Castro and Rizzo will be with the Cubs for the foreseeable future. Sveum is suggesting they might be demoted, but that seems extremely unlikely, and it's even less likely that either of them would be traded. The Cubs signed Castro to a seven-year, $60MM contract last August. Rizzo is not signed to a long-term deal. Both players have hit well this season despite occasional mistakes in the field. Here are more notes from around the majors.

  • John Poloni — also known as the "fat scout" in Michael Lewis' Moneyball — lobbied for the Athletics to draft Tim Hudson in 1997, John Shea of the San Francisco Chronicle writes. Hudson wasn't regarded as a top draft prospect due to his size, but Poloni told the A's that Hudson had "the best sinker he'd ever seen." 16 years later, Hudson is nearing his 200th win in the big leagues. That doesn't mean Poloni is rushing to take credit, however. "He exceeded my expectations, too," Poloni says. "A lot of times, it's pure luck."
  • Last offseason's big-ticket free agents haven't performed well so far, says the St. Louis Post-Dispatch's Rick Hummel. One of the highest-profile disappointments thus far has probably been Josh Hamilton of the Angels, although it's still early enough in the season that one big series could make any player's statistics look considerably better.

Quick Hits: Dodgers, Garza, Price, Yankees

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"You can never have too much pitching" isn't just a cliche, and the 2013 Dodgers are proof of that.  The Dodgers announced today that Chad Billingsley is headed to the disabled list because of right elbow pain and the right-hander may even require Tommy John surgery down the road.  The Dodgers theoretically had a pair of extra starters to dangle to teams a couple of weeks ago, but injuries to Billingsley, Chris Capuano, and Zack Greinke have put that idea on hold.  Here's more from around baseball..

  • Baseball officials told Buster Olney of ESPN.com (Insider sub. req'd) that if Matt Garza winds up getting tied to draft pick compensation like Kyle Lohse, the advice they would have for him would be to push his negotiations early in the offseason.  Because he's not a Greinke-type of talent, Garza will want to sign before teams have already settled in around spring training.
  • Olney recently suggested that the Cubs, Red Sox, Cardinals, and Rangers could be frontrunners if the Rays move David Price, but Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times doesn't see Tampa Bay doing business with Boston unless it's at a significant premium.
  • Lyle Overbay, Vernon Wells, and other new Yankees are rejuvenating their careers in New York, writes John Harper of the New York Daily News.

Quick Hits: Nava, Borbon, Giambi

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Daniel Nava, whose three-run homer helped the Red Sox to a dramatic victory Saturday, has come a long way since repeatedly considering retirement, Rob Bradford of WEEI.com writes. Nava played independent-league baseball in 2007 and considered quitting before catching on with the Red Sox in 2008. Then, after playing with the Red Sox in 2010 and spending 2011 with Triple-A Pawtucket, he didn't get invited to Major League spring training in 2012, and he considered quitting again. He ended up staying, and spent much of the 2012 season with the big-league team, hitting .243/.352/.390. This year, he's an important part of the Red Sox outfield. Here are more notes from around the majors.

  • Outfielder Julio Borbon had a "whirlwind day" after being claimed off waivers on Friday, MLB.com's Carrie Muskat writes. After learning he'd been claimed by the Cubs, Borbon got to Milwaukee's Miller Park in the eighth inning Friday night. Manager Dale Sveum, who had been ejected, told Borbon to suit up. Borbon did, and entered the game as a pinch-runner, then ended the game when he got thrown out trying to steal. Borbon expressed excitement at being claimed by the Cubs because he's a fan of President of Baseball Operations Theo Epstein. "My fiance, she’s from Boston, and she knew him, and she was the first one to tell me he had done great things for the city of Boston," said Borbon. "From his background and his resume, he’s on his way to doing the same thing here."
  • Jason Giambi of the Indians looks forward to becoming a coach one day, but for now he's enjoying the end of his big-league career, Gene Duffey of MLB.com writes. Giambi interviewed for the Rockies' manager position last year (the job went to Walt Weiss) and has declined coaching jobs with other teams while he continues to play. "I want to enjoy this while I can," says Giambi. "Unfortunately, this game will let you know when it's time to walk away. Sometimes it's not your choice. I've been lucky enough and blessed enough to be in my 19th Major League season. And I'm going to enjoy every minute."

NL Notes: Gregorius, Garza, Phillies

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Here are a few notes from the National League: 

  • The Diamondbacks raised eyebrows with several of their offseason moves, including the decision to part with young arm Trevor Bauer in the deal that brought shortstop prospect Didi Gregorius to Arizona. While it is still far too early to evaluate this deal, ESPN's Buster Olney writes (on Insider) that the most recent scouting returns on Gregorius are positive. Known as an excellent fielder, the glove-first Gregorius has been flashing improved strength and bat speed that could lead to more power than was previously expected. Off to a hot start to his big league career as he fills in for an injury-plagued Dbacks squad, the 23-year-old Gregorius certainly appears to be living up to Arizona GM Kevin Towers' hopes in the early going. Towers said the club not only felt that Gregorius "can really, really play short," but saw excellent bat speed and pitch recognition and believed he was "a tremendous kid" who has "got no fear."
  • Soon-to-be free agent hurler Matt Garza of the Cubs ranks seventh on MLBTR's Tim Dierkes's latest 2014 Free Agent Power Rankings despite his prolonged absence from the majors. Garza appears to be set up for a mid-May return, reports Paul Sullivan of the Chicago Tribune. Much like Roy Halladay, Garza's expected free agent haul could swing wildly based on 2013 results. While that is, of course, the case for any prospective free agent, it is possible to conceive of a wider band of results for a player like Garza. The 29-year-old features a very solid track record and relative youth, but is coming off of a long lull due to multiple injuries. Of course, Garza's play upon his return will also play a big role in whether the last-place Cubs will look to deal the pitcher to a contender (or, in the alternative, look to extend or re-sign him).
  • The Phillies' major offseason trade acquisition and now-former leadoff hitter Ben Revere has continued his inability to draw walks since joining the Phils. In comments on Thursday, Phillies GM Ruben Amaro bemoaned the team's inability to earn free passes, as reported by Todd Zolecki of MLB.com. In fact, the club has the third-worst walk rate in baseball (5.9%), well below the league average of 8.1%. The comments have led to some consternation among observers, such as Bill Baer of NBC Sports, who remember Amaro's statement in January: "I don't care about walks. I care about production." 

Minor Moves: Lillibridge, Lewis, Hamren, Weglarz

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Here are Friday's minor moves from around the league…

  • Brent Lillibridge has cleared waivers and been outrighted to Triple-A Iowa by the Cubs, according to MLB.com's Carrie Muskat (on Twitter).
  • The Cubs have also released right-hander Jensen Lewis, according to Muskat (Twitter link). The 28-year-old Lewis hasn't appeared in the Majors since 2010. He has a 3.68 ERA, 8.0 K/9 and 3.9 BB/9 in 198 Major League innings — all coming with the Indians.
  • The Braves have signed right-hander Erik Hamren and first baseman Nick Weglarz to minor league deals, tweets Matt Eddy of Baseball America. Hamren, 26, threw 12 1/3 innings for the Padres in 2011 and posted a 4.38 ERA. Weglarz at one point ranked 58th on Baseball America's Top 100 Prospects list, but his stock has fallen since that 2009 list. He has a career .252/.375/.439 batting line in the minors.
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