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Teams With Protected First Round Picks

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Playoff races rightfully get most of the attention this time of year, but there’s intrigue at the bottom of the standings, too. Seven teams have clinched protected first round picks in the 2013 amateur draft with three days remaining in the regular season. The Astros, Cubs, Rockies, Twins, Marlins, Indians and Red Sox will have top ten selections in next year’s draft even if they win the remainder of their games. 

These teams can sign elite free agents this offseason (players who turned down qualifying offers from their former clubs) and retain their first round selections. Instead, these teams would surrender second round selections.

As MLBTR detailed last week, the nine teams with the worst records in baseball will have protected first round selections in 2013. The Pirates will also have a protected first round pick, since they did not sign their top 2012 selection, Mark Appel.

The Blue Jays and Royals are currently positioned to obtain the remaining two protected 2013 picks. The Mariners and Mets could pass the Blue Jays or Royals depending on the results of the season's final series.

NL Central Notes: Pirates, Brewers, Baker, Soriano

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It was on this date in 1972 that Roberto Clemente collected the 3,000th and final hit of what would become a Hall of Fame career. Clemente would perish three months later in a New Year's Eve plane crash while delivering aid to earthquake victims in Nicaragua. Forty years later, the Pirates sealed their 20th consecutive losing season by falling to the Reds 4-3. Pittsburgh was 16 games over .500 on August 6, but has lost 18 of 23 to drop to 77-82. Elsewhere in the NL Central Division:

  • The Brewers were eliminated from the playoffs today with a clunker of a 7-0 shutout loss to the Astros. However, the outlook for 2013 looks bright, opines Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. Haudricourt believes the Brewers should be able to concentrate during the offseason on improving their pitching, both the starting rotation and bullpen, the major area of weakness on the 2012 team.
  • Brewers manager Ron Roenicke told reporters, including Haudricourt in a separate article, that he doesn't think Zack Greinke will be returning to Milwaukee. "I don't think we're going to sign a guy for five years and $120 million," said Roenicke. "We made him a great offer. We'll see how much he likes it in Anaheim." 
  • Dusty Baker will be back at the helm of the Reds on Monday when they travel to St. Louis for a three-game series against the Cardinals to close out the regular season. Baker has missed 11 games while recovering from a minor stroke and an irregular heartbeat. Baker is a free agent after this season and a popular theory has him headed to the Dodgers, according to Ken Rosenthal of FOXSports.com. Rosenthal dismisses the rumor. However, Rosenthal reports, citing a Baker friend, that the 63-year-old definitely wants to continue managing, but recognizes that he will need to take better care of himself.
  • Cubs manager Dale Sveum admitted to reporters, including the Chicago Tribune's Paul Sullivan, that Alfonso Soriano's trade value has never been higher and could be dealt this offseason. "It’s as high as it can be,” Sveum said. “Those kind of things are all (dependent ) on what you’re getting back and all those kind of things. The replacement value of that is very difficult to find."  

Central Notes: Cubs, Hoyer, Indians, Astros

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Here's a look at some items out of the Central divisions..

  • Cubs General Manager Jed Hoyer has just $40MM committed to four players for 2013 and says that the rotation will be a priority for the club this winter, writes Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times.  “We certainly have to be aggressive with starting pitching over the course of the winter," said Hoyer.  Last night, Hoyer indicated that the Cubs are prepared to be active on the open market this winter.
  • A number of candidates have already emerged for the Indians job but Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com opines that newly-minted interim manager Sandy Alomar Jr. is the right hire.  Terry Francona, who has also been linked to the gig, appears to be a longshot as Cleveland may not have the money to give him an attractive offer.
  • Randy Harvey of the Houston Chronicle writes that Bo Porter won the Astros' job thanks in large part to his high-level of intensity, something that Brad Mills was not known for.

Hoyer: Cubs Will Be Active On Free Agent Market

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The Cubs are on pace to finish with the franchise's worst record in over 30 years, but that doesn't mean they will be passive this coming offseason as they rebuild. GM Jed Hoyer told MLB.com's Carrie Muskat that the club will have financial flexibility and be active on the free agent market this winter.

“We will have financial flexibility,” Hoyer said. “We’ve been diligent to make sure we do have flexibility and we’re efficient going forward. We’ll obviously be active in the free agent market. That’s a big part of our research and work now is evaluating free agents. We have some money to spend and we’ll focus on it heavily.”

Chicago opened the season with a payroll north of $100MM, but pricey commitments to Carlos Zambrano and Marlon Byrd will come off the books this winter. Alfonso Soriano ($19MM) and Carlos Marmol ($9.8MM) figure to remain on the payroll next season, plus Matt Garza is heading into his fourth year of arbitration as a Super Two. He earned $9.5MM this year.

Hoyer and president of baseball operations Theo Epstein figure to seek short-term deals for any free agents, similar to the two-year, $10MM contract given to David DeJesus last offseason. Since they remain in rebuilding mode, any short-term commitments would be considered potential trade bait at next year's trade deadline as well.

Quick Hits: Baker, Varitek, LaHair, Padres, Berkman

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Reds manager Dusty Baker suffered a minor stroke on Friday, the team told reporters (including MLB.com's Mark Sheldon).  Baker was already in hospital being treated for an irregular heartbeat and was supposed to be released on Friday.  The 63-year-old was released instead on Sunday and is reportedly in good condition, addressing the Reds clubhouse this afternoon.  Bench coach Chris Speier has managed the team in Baker's absence and will continue to do so at least through Cincinnati's weekend series with the Pirates, though Baker is hopeful of returning for the Reds' final series of the year.

Here's some more news from around the baseball world…

Quick Hits: Prospects, Ross, Wood, Francis

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The Tigers can tie the White Sox for the AL Central lead today, but it'll take a win over the Royals and some help from the Indians, who are visiting the south side of Chicago. Here are today's links…

  • Athletics first-round selection Addison Russell tops Baseball America's list of the 20 best prospects from the rookie-level Arizona League. The A's selected the high school shortstop 11th overall, and he hit .415/.488/.717 in 26 games in the Arizona League before being promoted to Class A ball.
  • Cody Ross has been a bargain acquisition in the past, but he’s likely headed for a raise as a free agent following a strong offensive showing with the Red Sox, Alex Speier of WEEI.com writes. As Speier explains, Ross has been traded for next to nothing in the past.
  • Kerry Wood will work with the Cubs next year, likely as an on-field instructor, Toni Ginnetti of the Chicago Sun-Times reports. Wood, who retired in May, said he hopes to have some kind of role in uniform with the Cubs, ideally alongside some of his former teammates.
  • The Rockies will enter the 2013 season with questions related to Todd Helton, Drew Pomeranz, Jim Tracy and others, Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post writes. The Rockies want to bring Jeff Francis back when he hits free agency this offseason, according to Saunders.

Cubs Notes: Jackson, Valbuena, Stewart

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Alfonso Soriano hit his 30th home run of the season last night, reaching the threshold for the sixth time in his career and for the first time since 2007. The 36-year-old now has a .261/.317/.499 batting line in 568 plate appearances this year. He'll earn $18MM per season through 2014 on a contract that no longer seems as unmovable as it once did. Here are some Cubs-related notes from Paul Sullivan of the Chicago Tribune…

  • The idea of spending $150MM-plus on an impact player such as Josh Hamilton isn’t part of the Cubs’ plan, Sullivan reports. He notes that David DeJesus’ $10MM contract and Paul Maholm’s $4.75MM contract were the largest deals the Cubs signed a year ago.
  • However, the team expects to be able to spend. "Right now it's kind of hard to say,” manager Dale Sveum said. “You just don't know who will be available. But yeah, we'll spend money somewhere."
  • The Cubs need multiple starters, multiple relievers a center fielder, and a third baseman in Sullivan’s estimation. It appears that the Cubs will give Brett Jackson another look in center field despite his poor contact rate.
  • Luis Valbuena will be tendered a contract, but Ian Stewart is expected to be non-tendered, Sullivan writes. "Valbuena is going to be part of the organization, and he does one heck of a job himself," Sveum said. MLBTR's Steve Adams discussed Stewart as a non-tender candidate last month.
  • Josh Vitters appears to be a long shot at third base, according to Sullivan.

Rosenthal On Yankees, Playoffs, Sabermetrics

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The Yankees enter play today with a one-game lead over the Orioles and four games over the Rays. And, it's a good thing this isn't your father's Yankees, writes Ken Rosenthal of FOXSports.com. If George Steinbrenner was alive today, Rosenthal believes he might have fired manager Joe Girardi after blowing a ten-game lead in the AL East and replaced him with the likes of Lou Piniella. Hal Steinbrenner is almost the polar opposite of his father. So much so that, when Rosenthal asked Brian Cashman of the potential fallout that might occur if the team fails to reach the playoffs, the Yankees' GM said, "We have objective, patient ownership." Also from Rosenthal's column:

  • The new schedule hasn't been a cure-all for small market teams like the Rays. Rosenthal suggests one way to mitigate the Rays’ disadvantage would be to scale revenue sharing so they would receive a greater percentage than a low-revenue club such as the Indians, who compete in a division with lower payrolls.
  • A criticism of the new playoff system is Wild Card teams who have better records than division winners are penalized in the seeding of the Division Series. Rosenthal's solution is to wait until after the Wild Card game to seed the Division Series.
  • The AL CY Young Award voting will be a test of how accepted advanced statistics are by the Baseball Writers Association of America. Rosenthal points out the last eight AL pitchers to either lead or tie for the lead in those categories, like the Rays' David Price this year, each have won the award. The Tigers' Justin Verlander meanwhile leads in wins above replacement and Chris Sale of the White Sox leads in ERA+. Price is tops, however, in quality of opponents faced, based on the rankings of Vince Gennaro, president of the Society for American Baseball Research (SABR).
  • Larry Bowa's interview for the Astros' managerial vacancy is a good sign, as rival executives have worried that GM Jeff Luhnow is surrounding himself with too many like-minded sabermetric types rather than building a diverse baseball operations department.
  • The Marlins may have difficulty in sticking with their plan to keep Emilio Bonifacio in center field, play Donovan Solano at second, and make the acquisition of a third baseman their top priority. Rosenthal points out the market for third basemen is bare, so one alternative for the Marlins is to acquire an outfielder and move Bonifacio back to third base.
  • Look for the Rays to exercise their $2.5MM option on Fernando Rodney. Rodney is bidding to become only the second reliever in history (Dennis Eckersley in 1990) to have a season of 40 or more saves and an ERA under 1.00. Rodney leads baseball with 43 saves and his ERA is 0.66.
  • The Cubs will look again this offseason to move Alfonso Soriano, who is one home run and one RBI shy of his first 30-homer, 100-RBI season since 2005. If the Cubs fail to receive a sufficient offer, they could always bring back Soriano, owed $36MM over the next two years, and try to move him at the deadline again. Rosenthal cited the example of Carlos Lee of how it is easier to deal an overpriced player the closer he gets to the end of his contract.

Theo Epstein Talks Rebuilding, Sveum

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The Cubs have the second worst record in baseball at 57-87 and were officially eliminated from playoff contention earlier this week. President of baseball operations Theo Epstein spoke to Doug Padilla of ESPN Chicago about a number of topics, including what the future holds for his team as they rebuild.

"I think obviously we really care about our fans and we want them to have a great experience, but we're trying to be transparent about it," he said. "We have a plan and we have a vision and it won't happen overnight, but given the way of things I think this is the best way to go."

"There might be some tough things we have to tell (fans) along the way, and there might be another trading deadline in our future where we trade away 40 percent of a really good rotation," Epstein added. "Again, our goal from the beginning was that we were going to do what we need to do to put ourselves in position to be a contending team year in and year out. So that means no shortcuts and taking a long approach."

Epstein went on to praise manager Dale Sveum, acknowledging that he is being evaluated more on his ability to help their young players develop than the club's win-loss record. 

As our Transaction Tracker shows, the Cubs have traded away Sean Marshall, Carlos Zambrano, Marlon Byrd, Geovany Soto, Reed Johnson, Paul Maholm, and Ryan Dempster since the Epstein and Jed Hoyer regime took over last offseason. Matt Garza likely would have been dealt as well had he not suffered an arm injury. He and players like Alfonso Soriano, David DeJesus, Bryan LaHair, and Carlos Marmol could be next to go as the team continues its rebuilding effort.

Cafardo On Red Sox, Cabrera, Okajima, Quentin

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Red Sox General Manager Ben Cherington will focus on trying to fix his team’s pitching from top to bottom this offseason, writes Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe.  Since drafting Jon Lester in 2002, the only major league starting pitchers the Red Sox have developed are Clay Buchholz, Felix Doubront, and Justin Masterson.  And while they had good luck with relievers Jonathan Papelbon and Daniel Bard, Craig Hansen and Michael Bowden didn't work out as well.  When it comes to grooming their pitchers of the future, Cafardo suggests that the Red Sox should reach out to Rick Peterson to help steer the ship.  Here's more from today's column..

  • If Giants outfielder Melky Cabrera doesn't have any additional fallout relating to his 50-game suspension, GMs that were asked said they would look at him as a one-year contract possibility.  However, one GM noted that “If there’s competition for him, someone will go multiyear.”
  • Former Red Sox left-hander Hideki Okajima is in Japan and trying to work his way back to the majors.  Okajima is pitching extremely well in Japan, where many thought he wanted to stay, but  he wants another shot at the majors and may get it.
  • Carlos Quentin's contract is very reasonable for the small-market Padres, but they could still be open to moving him this offseason.  Quentin inked a three-year, $27MM extension with the club in July that includes a $10MM mutual option for 2016.
  • One veteran talent evaluator thinks many teams missed the boat on acquiring Cubs outfielder Alfonso Soriano.  While he’s not the centerpiece of any lineup he would be a good left field option for a team seeking a righthanded middle-of-the-order bat.
  • The Cubs will likely make a push for Red Sox hitting coach Dave Magadan, bullpen coach Gary Tuck, and possibly even bench coach Tim Bogar.  However, Bogar might prefer to stay in Boston.
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