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Olney On Hamilton, Brewers, Lohse

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The Brewers could pursue Josh Hamilton this offseason if the free agent outfielder doesn’t get any offers for four-plus years and more than $100MM, ESPN.com's Buster Olney writes. Here are more notes from Olney’s column…

  • The Brewers aren’t positioned to give Hamilton a massive contract, but they can offer him a comfortable place to play where he’d be supported. Johnny Narron, his former mentor, works as Milwaukee’s hitting coach, and Brewers bench coach Jerry Narron also knows the 31-year-old. While many outsiders lack detailed information about Hamilton’s off-field issues, the Narron brothers know the outfielder well enough to make a determination about his ability to continue producing.
  • At this point the Brewers intend to pursue multiple starters this offseason.
  • General managers expect free agent starting pitchers to do well this year, since there’s a shortage of viable options at a time that many teams are flush with dollars. The Blue Jays, Royals, Cubs and Angels are among the many teams known to be seeking starting pitching.
  • Some agents and general managers believe free agent starter Kyle Lohse could command a deal in the $60-75MM range, Olney reports.

Cubs Acquire Marcelo Carreno

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The Cubs acquired minor league right-hander Marcelo Carreno and cash considerations from the Tigers to complete the August trade involving Jeff Baker, the Tigers announced (on Twitter). The Tigers acquired Baker from the Cubs for two players to be named later on August 5th only to send him to Atlanta for another PTBNL four weeks later.

Carreno, 21, just completed his fifth season in the Tigers organization. He spent the 2012 campaign with Class A West Michigan, posting a 3.23 ERA with 7.7 K/9 and 1.8 BB/9 in 139 1/3 innings over the course of 27 starts.

Offseason Outlook: Chicago Cubs

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The Cubs enter the 2012-13 offseason with multiple needs, but their pitching staff requires the most attention at this point.

Guaranteed Contracts 

Arbitration Eligible Players (estimated salaries)

Contract Options

  • None

Free Agents

Sometimes the second offseason under a new front office can be the first 'normal' winter for a team's baseball operations department. A year ago, in the first offseason under Theo Epstein and Jed Hoyer, the Cubs had to conduct a managerial search, fill out their front office and create a plan for player development. Now, as the Cubs begin their second winter led by Epstein and Hoyer, team executives can focus on their primary task: turning a 101-loss team into a contender and, eventually, bringing that elusive World Series title to the North Side of Chicago.

Jeff Samardzija - Cubs (PW)

The Cubs spent in excess of $100MM on payroll in each of the past five seasons, so we know the resources are there. Yet to this point, they've committed just $42MM to next year's team, not accounting for arbitration eligible players. That should provide lots of flexibility for Cubs executives, but if last offseason provides any indication, they won't spend for the sake of spending. Instead, the Cubs figure to complete short-term free agent contracts and trades.

The Cubs could start by dealing one of their most experienced players. Alfonso Soriano had a good year in 2012, posting .262/.322/.499 batting line and hitting 32 home runs (reaching the 100 RBI-threshold won't hurt his value, either). Though Soriano has made it clear he'd consider waiving his no-trade rights, president of baseball operations Theo Epstein has said he won't deal the 36-year-old unless the Cubs get something of value in return. It's hard to envision Soriano's trade value rising much from here, so if the Cubs intend to create room for younger players and free up some salary, it's now time to make a move.

The Cubs will also need a contingency plan for center field. Just about half of Brett Jackson's at bats (59 of 120) ended in strikeouts this year, an indication that he won't make enough contact to maintain a respectable on-base average. He has some power, plays a premium position and can draw walks, but his contact skills create legitimate questions about the likelihood that he'll realize the potential that placed him on many top prospect lists earlier in his career.

Between a possible trade for Soriano and the need for a legitimate option behind Jackson, the Cubs could be in the market for outfielders this offseason. They could wait on a deep class of free agent outfielders or contact teams like the Diamondbacks and Twins, who have enviable outfield depth.

If the Cubs retain Luis Valbuena they'll be set at all four infield positions, with Starlin Castro, Darwin Barney and Anthony Rizzo occupying the three other spots. The Cubs could look to improve their catching depth following a season in which Chicago catchers placed 28th of the 30 MLB teams in OPS (.616). The free agent market seems relatively strong at catcher this year, and the Cubs could call teams such as the Blue Jays about possible trades.

The Cubs have a mid-sized group of arbitration eligible players that includes a number of non-tender candidates. Chris Volstad figures to be cut loose following a poor season; Ian Stewart's wrist issues place him in uncertain territory; Manny Corpas' chances of returning seem slim. Valbuena, the team's fourth non-tender candidate, has earned praise from his manager, an indication he could start the 2013 season as the Cubs' third baseman. Still, management might prefer to have options other than Valbuena and 23-year-old prospect Josh Vitters.

Jeff Samardzija has emerged as an extension candidate following his breakout season — an unexpected ascent that represented one of the primary positives of the Cubs' 101-loss season. MLBTR's Tim Dierkes has suggested a deal in the four-year, $27MM range could work for both the Cubs and Samardzija, who's under team control through 2015.

Despite Samardzija's production and a solid half-season from Matt Garza, Cubs starters struggled to complete innings (922 2/3, 24th in MLB), limit walks (3.1 BB/9, 23rd in MLB) and prevent runs (4.52 ERA, 23rd in MLB) this past season. Hoyer will be in the market for starting pitching, and could consider trades or free agent signings. The Cubs will presumably look for certainty given the state of their current rotation, so starters like Joe Blanton, Gavin Floyd and Jeremy Guthrie could make sense. Shaun Marcum, Dan Haren and Brandon McCarthy have health and performance-related questions, but they could also be intriguing free agent options for Hoyer to pursue if the players' asking prices are reasonable.

While it's not yet time for the Cubs to spend aggressively on top MLB free agents, they shouldn't hold back on elite international players (though spending restrictions do apply internationally). Prospects such as 18-year-old right-hander Shohei Otani could be worthwhile targets if Cubs scouts are impressed. The Cubs have already begun leveraging their status as a large market team by spending on international players such as Jorge Soler and they must continue adding talent to the organization in this way to the extent that it's possible under the sport's new collective bargaining agreement. The Cuban market could offer impact players as well, though this year's class doesn't appear to be as deep as the one that produced Soler and Yoenis Cespedes.

Garza, a midseason trade candidate this past summer, figures to stay put after missing the end of the 2012 season with an elbow injury. He'd likely have more value if he can prove he's healthy, so the timing isn't ideal for an offseason trade. If Garza's healthy midway through the 2013 season, the Cubs should trade him for the best controllable players they can get.

Cubs relievers performed less effectively than the team's starters this year, walking more than one batter per two innings (4.8 BB/9, 30th in MLB), generating few strikeouts (7.4 K/9, 29th in MLB) and posting a 4.49 ERA (27th in MLB). While it wouldn't make sense for the Cubs to spend aggressively on top free agent relievers such as Rafael Soriano, they must devote resources and attention to their relief corps this offseason. Trade candidates, minor league free agents and non-tendered players should all be on the team's radar. Perhaps the Cubs can even find a taker for Carlos Marmol, who will earn $9.8MM in 2013 after walking nearly one batter per inning this past season.

The Cubs lost 100 games for the first time since 1966 this past season. Even for a franchise that’s grown accustomed to losses that’s a lot of defeats. But they can be closer to contention within a few months if the front office completes a successful offseason by seeking pitching depth and pursuing impact talent whenever possible.

Photo courtesy of US Presswire.

Quick Hits: A’s, Gomes, White Sox, Cubs, Dodgers

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Earlier today, A's skipper Bob Melvin suggested that the club is ready to discuss a new contract with Jonny Gomes.  The interest seems to be mutual, as Gomes re-iterated that he wants to be back in Oakland next season, writes Casey Pratt of CSNBayArea.com.  "Would I like to? Absolutely," Gomes said. "I don't know, I mean this season has been magical for me, it has been a dream come true. When you've been kicked in the teeth as much as I have in the offseason you realize nothing is a guarantee."  Here's more from around baseball..

  • Dayan Viciedo will see his four-year, $10MM deal expire at the end of the year, but the White Sox outfielder says that he is not focused on his next contract, writes Scott Merkin of MLB.com.  Viciedo has 1.123 years of major league service to his credit and won't be arbitration eligible until after the 2014 season.
  • In his latest mailbag, several readers ask Paul Sullivan of the Chicago Tribune why the Cubs can't build for the future while also looking to win in 2013.  Sullivan writes that the main answer is a lack of pitching, which is a problem that can't be remedied overnight.
  • The Dodgers announced earlier today that hitting coach Dave Hansen will not return in 2013.  However, Hansen has been offered another position in the club, tweets Dylan Hernandez of the Los Angeles Times.
  • The Rockies officially kicked off their managerial search yesterday by meeting with bench coach Tom Runnells, writes Patrick Saunders of The Denver Post.  Stu Cole, manager of Triple-A Colorado Springs, is the club's other internal candidate in the search.

Arbitration Eligibles: Chicago Cubs

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The Cubs are next in our 2013 Arbitration Eligibles series.  Matt Swartz's salary projections are below.

Several arbitration eligible Cubs stand a good chance of being non-tendered.  With a 6.31 ERA, Volstad had a terrible year, and paying him anything close to $3MM doesn't make sense.  Stewart was affected all year by a wrist injury, which culminated in July surgery.  MLB.com's Carrie Muskat quoted Cubs GM Jed Hoyer on the situation last month: "Obviously, we'll spend a lot of time getting to the bottom of how it looks going forward before making a decision on his future with us.  It is a year that's hard to evaluate given the wrist."  So, Stewart at least has some chance of sticking around.

Valbuena picked up a lot of starts at third base in Stewart's absence, and manager Dale Sveum told Muskat he sees the 26-year-old on next year's team.  Valbuena's numbers — .219/.310/.340 in 303 plate appearances — don't make a strong case, however.  Corpas didn't have a particularly good year, and seems likely to be cut loose.

Samardzija spent the year in the Cubs' rotation and authored a breakout campaign, just in time for arbitration.  It's tough to find good comparables, since the pitcher had spent most of his previous innings in relief.  We've got him at $2.9MM, though his agency could make a case for something in excess of $3.5MM.  If the Cubs look to extend Samardzija, perhaps Johnny Cueto's four-year, $27MM deal would be a template.  Russell had a solid year out of the Cubs' pen, but won't be expensive his first time through arbitration.

Garza pitched a bit more than half a season before a triceps/elbow injury cut him short.  We're projecting a pretty mild raise up to $10MM, but this is another situation light on comparables.  If Garza comes up strong in the first half of 2013, the Cubs must decide whether to trade him, extend him, or let him walk as a free agent (potentially with a qualifying offer).    

If only Garza, Valbuena, Samardzija, and Russell are retained, we're estimating $14.7MM in salary to four arbitration eligible players.

Matt Swartz's arbitration projections are available exclusively at MLB Trade Rumors.  To read more about his projection model, check out this series of posts.

NL Notes: Braves, Adrian Gonzalez, Cubs, Cardinals

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The Nationals and Cardinals began their NLDS today, 79 years to the day of the last playoff game for a Washington franchise. The series will also feature the largest age gap between two managers facing off in the post-season (27 years and 235 days between 69-year-old Davey Johnson of the Nationals and 42-year-old Mike Matheny of the Cardinals), according to the Elias Sports Bureau via a tweet by ESPN.com's Jayson Stark. Other notes and nuggets from the Senior Circuit:

  • It is highly unlikely the Braves will attempt to sign Josh Hamilton because they typically don't pursue top-of-payscale free agents who come with questions, tweets the Atlanta Journal-Constitution's David O'Brien.
  • Adrian Gonzalez told Dylan Hernandez of the Los Angeles Times that he felt he struggled this season because he was "trying too hard." Gonzalez was even disappointed by his career-high 47 doubles. Also in the profile, the Dodger first baseman discussed the responsibility he feels as a Mexican-American athlete in a heavily Latino city.
  • The Dodgers will continue to strengthen their starting rotation which could lead them to target Zack Greinke, writes Steve Dilbeck of the Los Angeles Times.
  • The Cubs will need to acquire two or three starting pitchers merely to put a representative team on the field, opines Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times. Wittenmyer adds don't look for the Cubs to sign Greinke or Jake Peavy, as Shaun Marcum and Anibal Sanchez are more in line with the current front-office thinking.
  • Jake Westbrook, rehabbing from discomfort in his right oblique, threw a bullpen session this morning and hopes to be available for bullpen duty if the Cardinals advance to the NLCS, reports MLB.com's Jennifer Langosch. The throwing schedule for Westbrook is fluid because he will be leaving the team after Game 2 to be with his wife, who is scheduled to be induced into labor for the birth of their fourth child on Thursday.
  • The Cardinals will win the World Series in six games over the Tigers, predicts Ken Rosenthal of FOXSports.com in his playoff prognostication column.

Cafardo On Johnson, Soriano, Hernandez, Hamilton

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In today's column, Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe writes that there are some General Managers who have a few regrets regarding last winter.  Red Sox GM Ben Cherington wishes he had done more for the rotation.  Angels GM Jerry Dipoto probably would have liked to boost the bullpen more during the team's spending frenzy which netted Albert Pujols and C.J. Wilson.  Rockies GM Dan O'Dowd was asked to assess his own mistakes and said, “How long is this article? Just kidding. We all have regrets. When you make the amount of decisions we do, you make mistakes. So this year [Jeremy] Guthrie was acquired to give us innings, but Coors [Field] got him and that hurt us. We had such a lack of experience everywhere else. There was no margin for error, and I screwed up.”  Here's more from today's column..

  • Marlins pitcher Josh Johnson will be trade bait, despite talk to the contrary.  Miami could get a ton from teams like the Orioles, Red Sox, Blue Jays, Royals, Rangers, Twins, and Dodgers.  On the whole, the Marlins look like they're ready to clean house again.
  • Cubs outfielder Alfonso Soriano would make a lot of sense for the Rays as a DH, especially since the Cubs would pick up the bulk of his final two years under contract.  Soriano could also help the Blue Jays, Orioles, or Indians.
  • Indians GM Chris Antonetti says that he expects Shin-Shoo Choo to be back with Cleveland next season as he enters his walk year, but he will also listen to offers for the 30-year-old.  Choo could make sense for Boston as they face a similar situation with Jacoby Ellsbury.  Cafardo suggests a deal involving a pitcher like Justin Masterson.
  • Teams have offered the moon for Felix Hernandez in the past but there’s no chance that Mariners GM Jack Zduriencik is going to trade him now.  King Felix is under contract through 2014 and the M's have the money to keep him beyond that.  For his part, Hernandez is well-paid and loves playing in Seattle.
  • Josh Hamilton says that he won't take a discount to stay with the Rangers, but that's where he's likely to land as it's hard to read the market for him.  The Tigers, Nationals, Pirates, Phillies, Angels, Mariners, Blue Jays, and Orioles shouldn't be ruled out.  The Yankees and Red Sox also can't be crossed off the list but neither market is a strong fit for Hamilton.
  • Jake Peavy would appear to be a target for the Red Sox once his $22MM option is declined by the White Sox.  The 31-year-old could also end up staying put in Chicago or returning to the NL.
  • Former catcher Brad Ausmus, currently serving as a special assistant to the GM in San Diego, said that he would have interest in the Red Sox managerial vacancy.  As of Friday, however, he has yet to be contacted.  Ausmus turned down a chance to be interviewed for the Astros job earlier this fall.
  • The Red Sox are pursuing John Farrell, but Ryne Sandberg could be on their list, even though he was just named as the Phillies' third base coach and is likely being groomed for Charlie Manuel's job.  Cherington tried to get Sandberg to take Boston's Triple- A job a couple of years ago.
  • While some have accused Bobby Valentine of ignoring advanced scouting reporters, Cafardo says that he saw the manager reading them every time he visited his office.

Minor Moves: 28 Players Elect Free Agency

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A total of 28 players — all with big league time under their belts — recently elected free agency after finishing the year in Triple-A. Here is the full list, courtesy of the International League and Pacific Coast League transaction pages…

Central Notes: Myers, Soriano, Ryan, Morgan, Cubs

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Earlier today, we looked at the latest on the White Sox courtesy of Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com.  The club will decline options on Jake Peavy and Kevin Youkilis, but Kenny Williams will still work to retain both veterans.  Speaking of Williams, he will soon be promoted from General Manager to team president with Rick Hahn assuming his former title.  Here's more out of the Central divisions..

  • Williams says that reliever Brett Myers could start for the White Sox in 2013, writes Dan Hayes of CSNChicago.com.  The White Sox hold a $10MM option on Myers for next season that they can buy out for $3MM.
  • Cubs outfielder Alfonso Soriano told reporters that he is open to being traded in the offseason, according to the Associated Press.  Soriano hopes to have one more shot at making a trip to the World Series before his career is through.  The 36-year-old went on to say that he is open to retiring after the two remaining years on his contract are up.
  • Twins manager Rod Gardenhire suggested to Jim Bowden of SiriusXM (via Twitter) that the club will probably have a press conference tomorrow to remove the interim tag from General Manager Terry Ryan's title.
  • Brewers outfielder and former ACES client Nyjer Morgan says that he is now represented by agent Rex Gary, tweets Jerry Crasnick of ESPN.com.  The outfielder is set to be a free agent for the first time following the 2014 campaign.
  • The Cubs dismissed third base coach Pat Listach tonight, tweets Doug Padilla of ESPNChicago.com.  The decision was made by the club and manager Dale Sveum said that he would recommend him for any other coaching job (Twitter link).

NL Central Notes: Correia, LaHair, Snyder, Brewers

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With tonight's 3-0 win over the Cubs, the Astros have now recorded three straight shutouts for the first time since 1986.  It's a small measure of consolation for a team that has already clinched the worst record in baseball and the first overall pick in next year's amateur draft.  Here's the latest from Houston and elsewhere around the NL Central…

  • Kevin Correia cracked the 170-inning plateau with tonight's start, earning him a $100K bonus, tweets Rob Biertempfel of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review.  Correia will be a free agent this winter and is rumored to be parting ways with the Pirates, given that he's already requested a trade earlier this season.
  • Bryan LaHair thinks he has a 50-50 chance of being traded by the Cubs this offseason, he tells ESPN Chicago's Doug Padilla.
  • Astros GM Jeff Luhnow is undecided about bringing back Chris Snyder next season, though he's been impressed by Snyder's veteran leadership, reports MLB.com's Brian McTaggart.  The Astros and Snyder have a $4MM mutual option for 2013, an option that seems unlikely to be exercised by the club given Snyder's poor hitting this season and the fact that $4MM is a high price for a backup catcher.  It's possible the Astros could decline the option and still bring Snyder back on a smaller contract.
  • Ron Roenicke tells reporters (including MLB.com's Adam McCalvy) that the Brewers will bring their current coaching staff back next season.
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