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Non-Tender Candidate: Chris Volstad

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Chris Volstad’s most recent start provided a reminder of two things: that Volstad can pitch effectively against MLB offenses, and that it’s been a long time since he did so with much regularity. The 6’8” right-hander faced a Dodgers lineup including Shane Victorino, Matt Kemp, Andre Ethier and Hanley Ramirez over the weekend and limited Los Angeles to two runs on six hits in seven innings. Yet Saturday's start was Volstad's first seven-inning outing of the season, and the first game in which he allowed fewer than three earned runs.

It’s been a disappointing season for Volstad to this point, and he will be a non-tender candidate this coming offseason. When the Cubs acquired Volstad from Miami for Carlos Zambrano, he seemed capable of providing value at the back of Chicago's rotation by making his starts, limiting walks and inducing ground balls. He had averaged 29 starts per season in the three years preceding the trade while posting a 4.88 ERA, accumulating twice as many strikeouts as walks, and generating more than his share of ground balls.

However, the results have been disappointing so far in 2012. Volstad opened the season in Dale Sveum's rotation, then got demoted after posting a 7.46 ERA through eight starts. He joined the rotation at Triple-A Iowa, posting an unremarkable 5.17 ERA with 6.6 K/9 and 2.4 BB/9 in 12 starts in the Pacific Coast League. The Cubs recalled him from Iowa last week, so he has the chance to prove he belongs at the MLB level — now and in 2013.

Volstad earns $2.66MM this year and he’ll get a raise through the arbitration process if the Cubs tender him a contract next winter. He has pitched enough innings at the MLB level this year that he projects to obtain a $3.1MM salary in 2013, according to MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz. Yes, he’s on track for a $450K raise despite a career-high 7.22 ERA, a diminished strikeout rate and an unsightly 0-8 record. The Cubs must decide between now and the middle of December whether another season of Volstad is worth $3MM-plus.

Though his stat line isn’t pretty, bad luck may be a contributing factor to Volstad’s season — to an extent. Opponents are hitting .319 on balls in play against Volstad, a career high. It's an indication that he isn't getting much help from luck or Chicago’s defenders. No MLB pitcher has a lower strand rate than Volstad, who allows nearly half of baserunners to score (min. 50 IP). Though he's probably due for some regression, it's not uncommon for pitchers who have trouble generating swings and misses to allow a relatively high percentage of baserunners to score. And if any MLB pitcher has trouble inducing swings and misses, it’s Volstad. He generates the lowest percentage of swinging strikes among the 192 MLB pitchers with at least 50 innings in 2012 (4.6%, tied with Bartolo Colon and Henderson Alvarez). In other words, it’d be overly optimistic to say Volstad's numbers are simply a product of bad luck. 

Volstad’s in the rotation for now, which means he has the chance to string together some more strong starts before the season ends. But if he fails to impress, the Cubs may choose to non-tender Volstad this winter and look elsewhere to strengthen the back of their rotation.

Tigers Acquire Jeff Baker From Cubs

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The Tigers announced that they have acquired Jeff Baker from the Cubs in exchange for two players to be named later.  The Cubs will receive the two PTBNLs either on or before October 31st.

Baker, 31, has a .269/.306/.448 slash line in 144 plate appearances on the year.  The veteran has seen time at first base, second base, and the corner outfield positions this season and also has experience at third.

As for the Cubs, they will presumably bolster their farm system with this trade as they look to 2013 and beyond.  Theo Epstein & Co. continued the youth movement today with the promotions of Josh Vitters and Brett Jackson.

Quick Hits: Lowe, Cubs, Antonini, Rangers, Indians

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Links from around baseball as Saturday becomes Sunday..

Chicago Notes: Lowe, Soriano, Williams, Liriano

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Here's the latest from both Windy City teams….

  • The Cubs are "looking into what it would take to acquire" Derek Lowe, reports Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times.  Lowe has a 5.52 ERA in 21 starts this season and was designated for assignment by the Indians two days ago.  The Orioles and Red Sox have also been mentioned as possible suitors for Lowe, though the Red Sox haven't been in contact with the Indians about Lowe, according to WEEI.com's Rob Bradford.
  • Also from Wittenmyer's piece, Cubs president Theo Epstein said Alfonso Soriano had one semi-legitimate suitor before the trade deadline.  ‘‘There were a few nibbles, and there was one match of a team that had expressed interest and a place that he would go,’’ Epstein said. ‘‘But they ended up never making an actual offer and addressing their needs somewhere else.’’  This team could possibly be the Dodgers, who were known to have an interest in Soriano before acquiring Shane Victorino from the Phillies.
  • White Sox general manager Kenny Williams tells reporters (including MLB.com's Scott Merkin) that he plans to monitor the waiver wire, though "we don't have a lot of positions where if you claim somebody they're going to come in and play."
  • Francisco Liriano ended up being Williams' biggest acquisition in the days before the trade deadline and the GM thinks Liriano will thrive under pitching coach Don Cooper.  "While there might be some other guys out there who were available, I just felt that Liriano's one that all he really has to do is be in the strike zone on a more consistent basis," Williams said.

Olney On Dempster, Athletics, Lee, Castro

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At least one baseball person wonders if Ryan Dempster hurt his free agent stock by agreeing to join the Rangers, ESPN.com’s Buster Olney reports. The American League, referred to by one general manager as "the big boy league," features some high-powered offenses that could have impact Dempster’s numbers and diminish his leverage in offseason contract talks. Here are more notes from Olney…

  • The Dodgers were interested in Dempster, but they never pushed for him, Olney reports. The Dodgers didn’t want to trade from their core of good prospects and they didn’t waver when the Cubs asked about their top minor leaguers.
  • Olney suggests teams like the Red Sox and Orioles could have interest in Brandon McCarthy if the Athletics place him on waivers when he returns from the disabled list.
  • Before the trade deadline, the Phillies made it clear that they would not pick up any of Cliff Lee’s salary in a trade and would also want prospects in return for the left-hander. Olney suggests it’s highly unlikely Lee will be moved in a waiver deal this month.
  • Starlin Castro’s name came up in conversations between the Cubs and Diamondbacks leading up to the trade deadline, Olney writes. However, both sides moved on quickly and a deal was never close.
  • Olney wonders if the Nationals could pursue in Derek Lowe given their interest in adding pitching leading up to the trade deadline.

Updates On Converted Relievers Now Starting

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Building a rotation through free agency can be expensive and frustrating, so teams are understandably open to alternatives. One way for teams to avoid free agent salaries and long-term commitments is to move relief pitchers to the starting rotation. Yet few relievers have the repertoire and durability to succeed in the rotation, so it's not uncommon for converted relievers to flop as starters. 

Here’s a mid-season update on four pitchers who jumped from the ‘pen to the rotation this year. None of the pitchers below had started more than three MLB games in a season before 2012 and all of them were big league relievers last year:

  • Daniel Bard – Bard walked more batters than he struck out and posted a career-high ERA as a starting pitcher before being optioned to the minor leagues in early June. The right-hander saw his fastball velocity (93.1 mph) and swinging strike rate (7.9%) dip as a starter. He's now pitching out of the bullpen at Triple-A, and the results have been mixed. This attempted transition has been a disappointment.
  • Neftali Feliz – The Rangers have successfully converted C.J. Wilson and Alexi Ogando to starting roles under Ron Washington and Mike Maddux in recent years, but Feliz's conversion didn't go nearly as well. He will miss the rest of the season and much of 2013 to undergo and recover from Tommy John surgery. Feliz's injury may be unrelated to his change in roles, but it doesn't make the reality of his elbow issues any more pleasant for the Rangers. The 24-year-old started just seven games before hitting the disabled list, and the results were acceptable, if not overwhelmingly positive: a 3.16 ERA with 7.8 K/9 and 4.9 BB/9.
  • Jeff Samardzija – Credit the Cubs for putting Samardzija in the rotation this spring. He's enjoying a breakout season with a 4.19 ERA, 9.0 K/9 and 3.5 BB/9 in 120 1/3 innings (he recovered from an ugly month of June to string together some strong starts in July). The 27-year-old has maintained his fastball velocity, averaging 95 mph with his heater. Among MLB starters only Cole Hamels and Tim Lincecum generate a greater percentage of swings and misses (12.0%).
  • Chris Sale – Sale has pitched to a 2.61 ERA through 124 innings with a 114K/31BB ratio and impressive hit and home run rates. The 2012 All-Star has lost some zip on his fastball (now 92.1 mph), but he continues to generate lots of swings and misses. A major success for rookie manager Robin Ventura, pitching coach Don Cooper and the White Sox.

Note: Though Lance Lynn, Anthony Bass and Felix Doubront pitched in relief last year, they also started in the minors for much of the 2011 season, so I don’t consider them converted relievers. Advanced stats via FanGraphs.

Poll: Will The Cubs Move Soriano This Month?

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The Cubs made many trades before this week's non-waiver deadline, but Alfonso Soriano stayed put. Soriano wasn't dealt Tuesday despite some interest from rival teams. However, Cubs GM Jed Hoyer acknowledged on ESPN 1000 yesterday that "there is a chance” Soriano will be traded in August.

Two things would have to happen for the 36-year-old to be moved. He’d have to be placed on waivers and he’d have to approve the trade. Soriano is now hitting .273/.322/.499 with 19 home runs and 22 doubles, so he’d represent an offensive upgrade for many teams. Yet he earns $18MM per season through 2014, so there’s an excellent chance he’ll clear waivers this month. He also has a no-trade clause, which limits the Cubs' options. If Soriano does clear waivers, the Cubs can trade him to any team with his permission. In the unlikely event that he gets claimed, they can let him go for nothing but salary relief or work out a trade with the claiming team — as long as Soriano consents. How do you think it'll play out?

Will the Cubs move Soriano to another team this month?
Yes 58.55% (9,005 votes)
No 41.45% (6,375 votes)
Total Votes: 15,380

AL West Notes: Iwakuma, Rangers, Dempster

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The Athletics and Angels are currently positioned as the American League's two Wild Card teams. Both clubs made trades with the Brewers in anticipation of the non-waiver trade deadline, but the Angels' acquisition (Zack Greinke) led to considerably more headlines than the player the A's obtained (George Kottaras). Here's the latest on the other two AL West teams…

  • Sosnick Cobbe Sports no longer represents Mariners right-hander Hisashi Iwakuma, ESPN.com’s Jerry Crasnick reports (on Twitter). Agent Paul Cobbe said it made sense for the sides to end their business relationship because of some personal differences.
  • Rangers GM Jon Daniels will look out for possible August trade targets this month, Bryan Dolgin of ESPNDallas.com writes. "It's unusual to find an everyday player, a starting pitcher, but you can find some quality role players or relief pitchers out there," Daniels said.
  • Recently-acquired Rangers starter Ryan Dempster said on ESPN 1000's The Waddle & Silvy Show that he never turned down a trade to Atlanta (link via ESPNChicago.com). "All I asked for was more time on one particular trade," the right-hander said. The Cubs sent Dempster to Texas for minor league third baseman Christian Villanueva and minor league right-hander Kyle Hendricks.

Cubs Notes: Garza, Dempster, Villanueva

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The non-waiver trade deadline came and went and Cubs hurler Matt Garza wound up staying put in Chicago.  Cubs General Manager Jed Hoyer says that teams shied away in part because of the right-hander's tricep injury, tweets Paul Sullivan of the Chicago Tribune.  Here's more on the Cubs..

  • Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports writes that the Dodgers didn't wind up with Ryan Dempster because of the pitchers that they were unwilling to part with.  GM Ned Colletti's four untouchables in talks for Dempster were right-handers Zach Lee, Allen Webster, and Rubby De La Rosa, and left-hander Chris Reed.
  • The Rangers will pay all of Dempster's salary while the Cubs will pay all of Soto's salary, making it a virtual wash in terms of money, tweets Bob Nightengale of USA Today.
  • Landing a solid prospect in Christian Villanueva was a reasonable return for the Cubs considering that their leverage to move Dempster was limited by his 10-and-5 rights, writes Keith Law of ESPN.com (Insider sub. req'd).  Villanueva was blocked in the Rangers organization but should have a chance to shine with the Cubs.

AL East Notes: Qualls, Blanton, Blue Jays, Beckett

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The Yankees acquired Casey McGehee and the Red Sox acquired Craig Breslow, but the Blue Jays, Orioles and Rays remained relatively quiet on trade deadline day. Here’s the latest from the AL East…

  • The Yankees had planned to designate Chad Qualls for assignment to create roster space for Joba Chamberlain, so trading him to Pittsburgh wasn't a problem for the club, Mark Feinsand of the New York Daily News reports (on Twitter).
  • The Yankees were in on Ryan Dempster, but talks "never got to crunch time," Marc Carig of the Star Ledger reports (on Twitter).
  • The Orioles continued general discussions about a possible Joe Blanton trade, but never took the next step, Dan Connolly of the Baltimore Sun reports (on Twitter). "We would have liked to have done a deal or two today, but I don't think we're done adding to the team," executive VP Dan Duquette said, according to Eduardo A. Encina of the Sun (on Twitter).
  • The Blue Jays were discussing a trade late Monday, only to see the deal fall apart, GM Alex Anthopoulos said, according to Richard Griffin of the Toronto Star (on Twitter). Griffin suggests the deal was with the Cubs, who were discussing trades involving Matt Garza last night.
  • Red Sox GM Ben Cherington said he didn’t ask Josh Beckett if he’d waive his ten and five rights, according to Brian MacPherson of the Providence Journal (on Twitter).
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