Arbitration Eligibles: Chicago Cubs
The Cubs are next in our 2013 Arbitration Eligibles series. Matt Swartz's salary projections are below.
- First time: Luis Valbuena ($900K), Jeff Samardzija ($2.9MM), James Russell ($900K)
- Second time: Chris Volstad ($3MM)
- Third time: Manny Corpas ($1.4MM), Ian Stewart ($2.3MM)
- Fourth time: Matt Garza ($10MM)
Several arbitration eligible Cubs stand a good chance of being non-tendered. With a 6.31 ERA, Volstad had a terrible year, and paying him anything close to $3MM doesn't make sense. Stewart was affected all year by a wrist injury, which culminated in July surgery. MLB.com's Carrie Muskat quoted Cubs GM Jed Hoyer on the situation last month: "Obviously, we'll spend a lot of time getting to the bottom of how it looks going forward before making a decision on his future with us. It is a year that's hard to evaluate given the wrist." So, Stewart at least has some chance of sticking around.
Valbuena picked up a lot of starts at third base in Stewart's absence, and manager Dale Sveum told Muskat he sees the 26-year-old on next year's team. Valbuena's numbers — .219/.310/.340 in 303 plate appearances — don't make a strong case, however. Corpas didn't have a particularly good year, and seems likely to be cut loose.
Samardzija spent the year in the Cubs' rotation and authored a breakout campaign, just in time for arbitration. It's tough to find good comparables, since the pitcher had spent most of his previous innings in relief. We've got him at $2.9MM, though his agency could make a case for something in excess of $3.5MM. If the Cubs look to extend Samardzija, perhaps Johnny Cueto's four-year, $27MM deal would be a template. Russell had a solid year out of the Cubs' pen, but won't be expensive his first time through arbitration.
Garza pitched a bit more than half a season before a triceps/elbow injury cut him short. We're projecting a pretty mild raise up to $10MM, but this is another situation light on comparables. If Garza comes up strong in the first half of 2013, the Cubs must decide whether to trade him, extend him, or let him walk as a free agent (potentially with a qualifying offer).
If only Garza, Valbuena, Samardzija, and Russell are retained, we're estimating $14.7MM in salary to four arbitration eligible players.
Matt Swartz's arbitration projections are available exclusively at MLB Trade Rumors. To read more about his projection model, check out this series of posts.
NL Notes: Braves, Adrian Gonzalez, Cubs, Cardinals
The Nationals and Cardinals began their NLDS today, 79 years to the day of the last playoff game for a Washington franchise. The series will also feature the largest age gap between two managers facing off in the post-season (27 years and 235 days between 69-year-old Davey Johnson of the Nationals and 42-year-old Mike Matheny of the Cardinals), according to the Elias Sports Bureau via a tweet by ESPN.com's Jayson Stark. Other notes and nuggets from the Senior Circuit:
- It is highly unlikely the Braves will attempt to sign Josh Hamilton because they typically don't pursue top-of-payscale free agents who come with questions, tweets the Atlanta Journal-Constitution's David O'Brien.
- Adrian Gonzalez told Dylan Hernandez of the Los Angeles Times that he felt he struggled this season because he was "trying too hard." Gonzalez was even disappointed by his career-high 47 doubles. Also in the profile, the Dodger first baseman discussed the responsibility he feels as a Mexican-American athlete in a heavily Latino city.
- The Dodgers will continue to strengthen their starting rotation which could lead them to target Zack Greinke, writes Steve Dilbeck of the Los Angeles Times.
- The Cubs will need to acquire two or three starting pitchers merely to put a representative team on the field, opines Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times. Wittenmyer adds don't look for the Cubs to sign Greinke or Jake Peavy, as Shaun Marcum and Anibal Sanchez are more in line with the current front-office thinking.
- Jake Westbrook, rehabbing from discomfort in his right oblique, threw a bullpen session this morning and hopes to be available for bullpen duty if the Cardinals advance to the NLCS, reports MLB.com's Jennifer Langosch. The throwing schedule for Westbrook is fluid because he will be leaving the team after Game 2 to be with his wife, who is scheduled to be induced into labor for the birth of their fourth child on Thursday.
- The Cardinals will win the World Series in six games over the Tigers, predicts Ken Rosenthal of FOXSports.com in his playoff prognostication column.
Cafardo On Johnson, Soriano, Hernandez, Hamilton
In today's column, Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe writes that there are some General Managers who have a few regrets regarding last winter. Red Sox GM Ben Cherington wishes he had done more for the rotation. Angels GM Jerry Dipoto probably would have liked to boost the bullpen more during the team's spending frenzy which netted Albert Pujols and C.J. Wilson. Rockies GM Dan O'Dowd was asked to assess his own mistakes and said, “How long is this article? Just kidding. We all have regrets. When you make the amount of decisions we do, you make mistakes. So this year [Jeremy] Guthrie was acquired to give us innings, but Coors [Field] got him and that hurt us. We had such a lack of experience everywhere else. There was no margin for error, and I screwed up.” Here's more from today's column..
- Marlins pitcher Josh Johnson will be trade bait, despite talk to the contrary. Miami could get a ton from teams like the Orioles, Red Sox, Blue Jays, Royals, Rangers, Twins, and Dodgers. On the whole, the Marlins look like they're ready to clean house again.
- Cubs outfielder Alfonso Soriano would make a lot of sense for the Rays as a DH, especially since the Cubs would pick up the bulk of his final two years under contract. Soriano could also help the Blue Jays, Orioles, or Indians.
- Indians GM Chris Antonetti says that he expects Shin-Shoo Choo to be back with Cleveland next season as he enters his walk year, but he will also listen to offers for the 30-year-old. Choo could make sense for Boston as they face a similar situation with Jacoby Ellsbury. Cafardo suggests a deal involving a pitcher like Justin Masterson.
- Teams have offered the moon for Felix Hernandez in the past but there’s no chance that Mariners GM Jack Zduriencik is going to trade him now. King Felix is under contract through 2014 and the M's have the money to keep him beyond that. For his part, Hernandez is well-paid and loves playing in Seattle.
- Josh Hamilton says that he won't take a discount to stay with the Rangers, but that's where he's likely to land as it's hard to read the market for him. The Tigers, Nationals, Pirates, Phillies, Angels, Mariners, Blue Jays, and Orioles shouldn't be ruled out. The Yankees and Red Sox also can't be crossed off the list but neither market is a strong fit for Hamilton.
- Jake Peavy would appear to be a target for the Red Sox once his $22MM option is declined by the White Sox. The 31-year-old could also end up staying put in Chicago or returning to the NL.
- Former catcher Brad Ausmus, currently serving as a special assistant to the GM in San Diego, said that he would have interest in the Red Sox managerial vacancy. As of Friday, however, he has yet to be contacted. Ausmus turned down a chance to be interviewed for the Astros job earlier this fall.
- The Red Sox are pursuing John Farrell, but Ryne Sandberg could be on their list, even though he was just named as the Phillies' third base coach and is likely being groomed for Charlie Manuel's job. Cherington tried to get Sandberg to take Boston's Triple- A job a couple of years ago.
- While some have accused Bobby Valentine of ignoring advanced scouting reporters, Cafardo says that he saw the manager reading them every time he visited his office.
Minor Moves: 28 Players Elect Free Agency
A total of 28 players — all with big league time under their belts — recently elected free agency after finishing the year in Triple-A. Here is the full list, courtesy of the International League and Pacific Coast League transaction pages…
- Infielders: Brian Bixler (Astros), Sean Burroughs (Twins), Blake DeWitt (Cubs), Alberto Gonzalez (Rangers), Angel Sanchez (Astros), Nate Spears (Red Sox), Drew Sutton (Pirates)
- Outfielders: Travis Buck (Astros), Ryan Langerhans (Angels), Mitch Maier (Royals), Darnell McDonald (Yankees), Jai Miller (Orioles), Trent Oeltjen (Dodgers), Jason Pridie (Phillies), Mike Wilson (Mariners)
- Right-handed Pitchers: Roman Colon (Royals), Mike Ekstrom (Rockies), Jack Egbert (Mets), Ryota Igarashi (Yankees), Evan Meek (Pirates), Scott Richmond (Blue Jays), Kip Wells (Padres), Randy Wells (Cubs), Dan Wheeler (Indians)
- Left-handed Pitchers: Alex Hinshaw (Cubs), Cesar Jimenez (Mariners), Zach Kroenke (Diamondbacks), Garrett Olson (Mets)
Central Notes: Myers, Soriano, Ryan, Morgan, Cubs
Earlier today, we looked at the latest on the White Sox courtesy of Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com. The club will decline options on Jake Peavy and Kevin Youkilis, but Kenny Williams will still work to retain both veterans. Speaking of Williams, he will soon be promoted from General Manager to team president with Rick Hahn assuming his former title. Here's more out of the Central divisions..
- Williams says that reliever Brett Myers could start for the White Sox in 2013, writes Dan Hayes of CSNChicago.com. The White Sox hold a $10MM option on Myers for next season that they can buy out for $3MM.
- Cubs outfielder Alfonso Soriano told reporters that he is open to being traded in the offseason, according to the Associated Press. Soriano hopes to have one more shot at making a trip to the World Series before his career is through. The 36-year-old went on to say that he is open to retiring after the two remaining years on his contract are up.
- Twins manager Rod Gardenhire suggested to Jim Bowden of SiriusXM (via Twitter) that the club will probably have a press conference tomorrow to remove the interim tag from General Manager Terry Ryan's title.
- Brewers outfielder and former ACES client Nyjer Morgan says that he is now represented by agent Rex Gary, tweets Jerry Crasnick of ESPN.com. The outfielder is set to be a free agent for the first time following the 2014 campaign.
- The Cubs dismissed third base coach Pat Listach tonight, tweets Doug Padilla of ESPNChicago.com. The decision was made by the club and manager Dale Sveum said that he would recommend him for any other coaching job (Twitter link).
NL Central Notes: Correia, LaHair, Snyder, Brewers
With tonight's 3-0 win over the Cubs, the Astros have now recorded three straight shutouts for the first time since 1986. It's a small measure of consolation for a team that has already clinched the worst record in baseball and the first overall pick in next year's amateur draft. Here's the latest from Houston and elsewhere around the NL Central…
- Kevin Correia cracked the 170-inning plateau with tonight's start, earning him a $100K bonus, tweets Rob Biertempfel of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review. Correia will be a free agent this winter and is rumored to be parting ways with the Pirates, given that he's already requested a trade earlier this season.
- Bryan LaHair thinks he has a 50-50 chance of being traded by the Cubs this offseason, he tells ESPN Chicago's Doug Padilla.
- Astros GM Jeff Luhnow is undecided about bringing back Chris Snyder next season, though he's been impressed by Snyder's veteran leadership, reports MLB.com's Brian McTaggart. The Astros and Snyder have a $4MM mutual option for 2013, an option that seems unlikely to be exercised by the club given Snyder's poor hitting this season and the fact that $4MM is a high price for a backup catcher. It's possible the Astros could decline the option and still bring Snyder back on a smaller contract.
- Ron Roenicke tells reporters (including MLB.com's Adam McCalvy) that the Brewers will bring their current coaching staff back next season.
Teams With Protected First Round Picks
Playoff races rightfully get most of the attention this time of year, but there’s intrigue at the bottom of the standings, too. Seven teams have clinched protected first round picks in the 2013 amateur draft with three days remaining in the regular season. The Astros, Cubs, Rockies, Twins, Marlins, Indians and Red Sox will have top ten selections in next year’s draft even if they win the remainder of their games.
These teams can sign elite free agents this offseason (players who turned down qualifying offers from their former clubs) and retain their first round selections. Instead, these teams would surrender second round selections.
As MLBTR detailed last week, the nine teams with the worst records in baseball will have protected first round selections in 2013. The Pirates will also have a protected first round pick, since they did not sign their top 2012 selection, Mark Appel.
The Blue Jays and Royals are currently positioned to obtain the remaining two protected 2013 picks. The Mariners and Mets could pass the Blue Jays or Royals depending on the results of the season's final series.
NL Central Notes: Pirates, Brewers, Baker, Soriano
It was on this date in 1972 that Roberto Clemente collected the 3,000th and final hit of what would become a Hall of Fame career. Clemente would perish three months later in a New Year's Eve plane crash while delivering aid to earthquake victims in Nicaragua. Forty years later, the Pirates sealed their 20th consecutive losing season by falling to the Reds 4-3. Pittsburgh was 16 games over .500 on August 6, but has lost 18 of 23 to drop to 77-82. Elsewhere in the NL Central Division:
- The Brewers were eliminated from the playoffs today with a clunker of a 7-0 shutout loss to the Astros. However, the outlook for 2013 looks bright, opines Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. Haudricourt believes the Brewers should be able to concentrate during the offseason on improving their pitching, both the starting rotation and bullpen, the major area of weakness on the 2012 team.
- Brewers manager Ron Roenicke told reporters, including Haudricourt in a separate article, that he doesn't think Zack Greinke will be returning to Milwaukee. "I don't think we're going to sign a guy for five years and $120 million," said Roenicke. "We made him a great offer. We'll see how much he likes it in Anaheim."
- Dusty Baker will be back at the helm of the Reds on Monday when they travel to St. Louis for a three-game series against the Cardinals to close out the regular season. Baker has missed 11 games while recovering from a minor stroke and an irregular heartbeat. Baker is a free agent after this season and a popular theory has him headed to the Dodgers, according to Ken Rosenthal of FOXSports.com. Rosenthal dismisses the rumor. However, Rosenthal reports, citing a Baker friend, that the 63-year-old definitely wants to continue managing, but recognizes that he will need to take better care of himself.
- Cubs manager Dale Sveum admitted to reporters, including the Chicago Tribune's Paul Sullivan, that Alfonso Soriano's trade value has never been higher and could be dealt this offseason. "It’s as high as it can be,” Sveum said. “Those kind of things are all (dependent ) on what you’re getting back and all those kind of things. The replacement value of that is very difficult to find."
Central Notes: Cubs, Hoyer, Indians, Astros
Here's a look at some items out of the Central divisions..
- Cubs General Manager Jed Hoyer has just $40MM committed to four players for 2013 and says that the rotation will be a priority for the club this winter, writes Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times. “We certainly have to be aggressive with starting pitching over the course of the winter," said Hoyer. Last night, Hoyer indicated that the Cubs are prepared to be active on the open market this winter.
- A number of candidates have already emerged for the Indians job but Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com opines that newly-minted interim manager Sandy Alomar Jr. is the right hire. Terry Francona, who has also been linked to the gig, appears to be a longshot as Cleveland may not have the money to give him an attractive offer.
- Randy Harvey of the Houston Chronicle writes that Bo Porter won the Astros' job thanks in large part to his high-level of intensity, something that Brad Mills was not known for.
Hoyer: Cubs Will Be Active On Free Agent Market
The Cubs are on pace to finish with the franchise's worst record in over 30 years, but that doesn't mean they will be passive this coming offseason as they rebuild. GM Jed Hoyer told MLB.com's Carrie Muskat that the club will have financial flexibility and be active on the free agent market this winter.
“We will have financial flexibility,” Hoyer said. “We’ve been diligent to make sure we do have flexibility and we’re efficient going forward. We’ll obviously be active in the free agent market. That’s a big part of our research and work now is evaluating free agents. We have some money to spend and we’ll focus on it heavily.”
Chicago opened the season with a payroll north of $100MM, but pricey commitments to Carlos Zambrano and Marlon Byrd will come off the books this winter. Alfonso Soriano ($19MM) and Carlos Marmol ($9.8MM) figure to remain on the payroll next season, plus Matt Garza is heading into his fourth year of arbitration as a Super Two. He earned $9.5MM this year.
Hoyer and president of baseball operations Theo Epstein figure to seek short-term deals for any free agents, similar to the two-year, $10MM contract given to David DeJesus last offseason. Since they remain in rebuilding mode, any short-term commitments would be considered potential trade bait at next year's trade deadline as well.