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Who Could Be Released This Month?

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With certain contracts, there comes a time when a team would prefer to pay the player to go away and free up a roster spot.  For example, two years ago the Tigers ate $14MM in releasing Gary Sheffield and the Phillies assumed $8MM to let Geoff Jenkins go.  Here's a look at some big money players who I think stand a chance of being cut this month.

  • Oliver Perez, Mets: one year, $12MM.  A team insider told ESPN's Adam Rubin three days ago that Perez is highly likely to be released.  Today Perez allowed three runs in the first inning of a split-squad game and followed that with a couple of scoreless frames.
  • Luis Castillo, Mets: one year, $6MM.  Rubin wrote that Castillo "appears destined for the same fate" as Perez, despite the team's unsettled second base situation.
  • Carlos Silva, Cubs: one year, $13.5MM.  The Cubs are only on the hook for $8MM to Silva this year, as they're receiving $5.5MM from Seattle.  The Cubs' last two rotation spots are too early to call, but if Silva continues to pitch poorly in his next few outings and isn't amenable to long relief, the Cubs might have to let him go.
  • Armando Galarraga, Diamondbacks: one year, $2.3MM.  The D'Backs would only be on the hook for roughly $380K if they release Galarraga by the 15th, whereas Zach Duke's salary is guaranteed.  If Aaron Heilman or Barry Enright makes the rotation, Galarraga or Duke would have to slide to the bullpen or be released.
  • Barry Zito, Giants: three years, $64.5MM.  Most teams would be thrilled with a low 4.00s ERA from their fifth starter, so the idea of releasing Zito was strange from the start.
  • Aaron Rowand, Giants: two years, $24MM.  The Giants have a crowded outfield, and cutting Rowand makes sense.  They've also got Nate Schierholtz, who is out of options.
  • Milton Bradley, Mariners: one year, $12MM.  Bradley's legal issues aside, Spring Training seems to be going well enough for him.  He's even playing center field today.  This one is hard to call right now.
  • Danys Baez, Phillies: one year, $2.75MM.  Baez had a rough first year for the Phillies, but he can probably squeeze his way onto the Opening Day roster.
  • Ryan Doumit, Pirates: one year, $5.6MM.  Doumit isn't generating much trade interest, but releasing him would be a last resort and probably won't be necessary prior to Opening Day.

Quick Hits: Abreu, Uribe, Rendon, Sanches

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This day in baseball history saw the birth of the Blue Jays in 1943…the Philadelphia Blue Jays, that is.  The Phillies adopted the 'Blue Jays' nickname in what new team president Bob Carpenter saw as a break from the club's largely mediocre history.  The nickname didn't stick, however, and it wasn't until the Toronto expansion franchise came into being that the Blue Jays name returned to Major League Baseball.

Some news items to take us into the weekend…

  • Bobby Abreu's $9MM option for 2012 will vest if he makes 433 plate appearances this season.  As Mark Saxon of ESPNLosAngeles.com points out, the Angels could face a tough playing-time decision since the veteran is coming off his worst full season, yet can still be productive.  MLBTR's Mike Axisa recently profiled Abreu as a make-or-break year player, though given Abreu's durability, his status for 2012 shouldn't be in question as long as the Halos play him.
  • Juan Uribe tells Dylan Hernandez of the Los Angeles Times that the Dodgers contacted his agent almost every day before finally signing him to a three-year, $21MM contract.
  • Stephen Goff of the Houston Examiner profiles Anthony Rendon, who may be the first overall pick in June's amateur draft.
  • Right-hander Brian Sanches is out of options and is battling for the last spot in the Marlins' bullpen, writes Clark Spencer of the Miami Herald.  Sanches has a 2.40 ERA and 105 strikeouts in 120 innings for Florida over the last two seasons, so he'll definitely draw interest if the Marlins put him on waivers or try to trade him.
  • Steve Slowinski of Fangraphs.com looks at the 10 completed and about-to-be-completed $100MM contracts in baseball history.  Of those 10 players, only four played consistently well enough to make those contracts a wise investment — Derek Jeter, Albert Pujols, Manny Ramirez and Alex Rodriguez.  (Rangers fans may argue that last one, but Slowinski is strictly looking at player performance.)
  • The Orioles agreed to terms with all of their pre-arbitration players except for right-hander Jason Berken, whose contract was renewed, reports Jeff Zrebiec of the Baltimore Sun.  Berken also had his deal renewed last season.
  • Jonathan Mayo of MLB.com lists the top 10 prospects in the Padres' system.  Mayo puts three pitchers (Casey Kelly, Simon Castro, Cory Luebke) in San Diego's top four, as he notes the emphasis the team puts on developing young arms.   
  • In a chat with fans on ESPNChicago.com, Bruce Levine notes that scouts were in attendance to see Carlos Silva during his six-run first inning and subsequent dugout altercation with Aramis Ramirez on Wednesday.  Levine says that the Cubs would probably be able to trade Silva, not release him, if they wanted to part ways.  There's also the $11.5MM salary Silva is owed for this season that the Cubs would have to swallow if they released the right-hander.

Quick Hits: Phillips, Olsen, Rangers, Greinke

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The great Mickey Mantle announced his retirement on this day in 1969.  The Mick was coming off his worst of his 18 Major League seasons, a .237/.385/.398 performance in 1968.  While a .782 OPS would be a pretty decent performance for most mortals, it was well behind Mantle's .977 career OPS.  Mantle retired with 536 home runs, seven World Series rings and legendary status with both the Yankees and the sport as a whole.

Some news items…

  • Brandon Phillips wants to play for the Reds beyond his current contract, and John Fay of the Cincinnati Enquirer speculates how much it might cost to keep Phillips in Cincinnati.  The club holds a $12MM team option on Phillips for 2012, and Fay thinks Phillips would have to accept less tham $12MM per season in a new deal.  Fay guesses Phillips will ask for a Dan Uggla-esque contract, while the Reds will try to sign him to a deal similar to Juan Uribe's pact with the Dodgers.  If I had to guess, I'd say the Reds' financial situation might make them hard-pressed to pick up Phillips' 2012 option, let alone give him another expensive, multiyear deal.  Another year of pennant contention and more fans in the Great American Ballpark would certainly change things, of course.
  • It came as news to Scott Olsen that Pirates GM Neal Huntington listed him as as a bullpen candidate if he doesn't make the rotation, reports Colin Dunlap of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette.  “They didn’t bring me in here to be a bullpen guy,” Olsen said. “They want to do that, we are going to have to have a conversation about it, and we haven’t had one about it.”  Olsen's contract with Pittsburgh includes $3MM in incentives based on the number of starts that Olsen makes, so obviously Olsen has a stated interest in staying out of the bullpen.
  • The Rangers' payroll for 2011 will be almost 70% higher than it was in 2010, reports Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News.
  • Zack Greinke says he "kind of had to play the bad guy" by requesting a trade from the Royals, reports Danny Knobler of CBSSports.com.  "The way things were in Kansas City, if I hadn't done that, the fans would have been outraged if I was traded," Greinke said.  "The fans — I don't know why, but they really liked me."
  • Keith Law of ESPN.com lists six prospects who might be "this year's Mike Trout" and have a breakout minor league campaign.
  • One of Law's breakout candidates is Tigers third baseman Nick Castellanos, a supplemental first-round pick (44th overall) for Detroit in 2010.  John Lowe of the Detroit Free Press talked to the 18-year-old about playing alongside his childhood hero, Miguel Cabrera.
  • The Cubs have already paid back the $3MM they owed Ryan Dempster in contract deferral payments, reports ESPNChicago.com's Bruce Levine.
  • Matt Eddy of Baseball America recaps the week's minor league transactions.

Quick Hits: Pujols, Crawford, Pavano, Rays, A’s, Mets

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Links for Wednesday, as the Cardinals hope for the best regarding Adam Wainwright's elbow…

  • In today's blog post (Insider req'd), ESPN's Buster Olney writes about the pressure both the Cardinals and Cubs will be under if Albert Pujols hits the open market. He likens Chicago's situation to what the Knicks and Cavaliers faced during last year's LeBron James madness.
  • Carl Crawford told WEEI.com's Dennis & Callahan that the Yankees never made him an offer this offseason, and that he "didn't want to be somebody's backup plan." New York met with Crawford during the winter meetings.
  • SI.com's Jon Heyman heard that the Pirates offered Carl Pavano two years and $13MM while the Yankees offered one-year and $9.75MM with incentives (Twitter link). Pavano eventually rejoined the Twins for two years and $16.5MM.
  • Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports hears "rumblings" that certain big market teams want to "drop" the Athletics and Rays, even though there's little chance it actually happens. Contraction doesn't appear to be on the horizon given revenue streams, and as Rosenthal notes, the player's union would consider the elimation of 50 jobs an "act of war."
  • In a separate article, Rosenthal explores the domino effect Wainwright's injury may have on the Cardinals.
  • Richard Sandomir and Ken Belson of The New York Times report that "a variety of proposals are surfacing that suggest that investors want more than the Mets are offering." The Wilpons are looking to sell about 25% of the team in the wake of the Madoff scandal, but not controlling interest. 
  • Over at RotoAuthority, Tim Dierkes ranks the top fantasy outfielders.

2012 Vesting Options

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Vesting options are always worth keeping track of during the season, especially since they can often have consequences that are less than desirable. Last year Magglio Ordonez ($15MM), Kerry Wood ($11MM), and Brian Fuentes ($9MM) all had big money options that did not vest, though Darren Oliver ($3.25MM) and Trever Miller ($2MM) had some smaller ones that did. 

Here is a list of 2012 vesting options to keep an eye on this summer…

  • Bobby Abreu, Angels: $9MM option vests with 433 plate appearances. Abreu hasn't come to the plate fewer than 589 times in a season since 1997, his rookie year.
  • Adam Wainwright, Cardinals: His $9MM option for 2012 and $12MM option for 2013 will lock in as long as he does not finish 2011 on the disabled list. His second place finish in the 2010 Cy Young voting was step one of the vesting process.
  • Aramis Ramirez, Cubs: $16MM option vests if he is named MVP of either the regular season or League Championship Series, or if he is traded at some point in 2011.
  • Rafael Furcal, Dodgers: $12MM option vests with 600 plate appearances. Furcal has come to the plate 600+ times just once in the last three seasons (2009) due to injuries.
  • Jon Garland, Dodgers: $8MM option vests with 190 innings pitched. Garland hasn't thrown fewer than 191 1/3 innings since becoming a full-time starter in 2002.
  • Francisco Rodriguez, Mets: $17.5MM option vests with 55 games finished and if doctors declare him healthy at the end of the season.
  • Koji Uehara, Orioles: $4MM option vests with either 55 appearances or 25 games finished. Uehara hasn't reached either milestone in his first two big league seasons, though he came close in 2010: 43 appearances and 22 games finished.
  • Arthur Rhodes, Rangers: $4MM option vests with 62 appearances and if he's not on the disabled list at the end of the season.
  • Joakim Soria, Royals: $6MM option vests with 55 appearances, which he's done in three of his four big league seasons. The chances of it coming into play are microscopic, but Soria has a $6.5MM option for 2012 that could vest with 334 1/3 innings pitched (400 IP in 2010 & 2011). That was obviously put into his contract in case the team ever moved him into the rotation.
  • Dan Wheeler, Red Sox: $3MM option vests with 65 games; increases to $3.25MM with 70 games.  Wheeler reached 64 games in 2010, but had at least 69 in each of the previous five seasons.

Mark Buehrle is scheduled to become a free agent after the 2011 season and although he doesn't have a traditional option in his contract, he gets an extra year at $15MM tacked onto his current deal if he's traded at some point this season. 

Thanks to Cot's Baseball Contracts for the info.

NL Central Notes: Pujols, Cubs, Huntington, Jones

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Here are some notes from baseball's only six-team division…

  • Cubs owner Tom Ricketts was very vague when asked about the possibility of Albert Pujols becoming a Cub according to Joe Cowley of The Chicago Sun Times (on Twitter). Chicago has been speculated as a potential landing spot for Pujols if he does in fact become a free agent after the season.
  • Ricketts did however say that there will be "a little more financial flexibility" at the end of the season and he's open to "mega" contracts for certain players, according to Bruce Miles of The Daily Herald and Gordon Wittenmyer of The Chicago Sun-Times (Twitter links).
  • Ricketts also told Cowley (on Twitter) that the team has some room in the budget to add at the trade deadline, though revenue in the first few months of the season will be key.
  • The Pirates have not yet extended GM Neal Huntington's contract according to Rob Biertempfel of The Pittsburgh Tribune-Review. Team president Frank Coonelly said "it's our expectation that Neal will be here for a long time." Huntington's contract expires after the 2011 season.
  • MLB.com's Adam McCalvy reports that right-hander Mike Jones, the Brewers first round pick in 2001 (12th overall), is retiring. The 27-year-old never reached the big leagues, and owns a 3.75 ERA in 623 1/3 minor league innings, all in Milwaukee's system.

Offseason In Review: Chicago Cubs

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The Cubs are next in our Offseason In Review series.

Major League Signings

Notable Minor League Signings

Trades and Claims

Notable Losses

Summary

The mandate for Cubs GM Jim Hendry this winter: turn a bloated fifth-place team into a contender for 2011 despite limited payroll flexibility.  The Cubs were in sell mode last summer, but Hendry switched back to a win-now approach this offseason.  Let's sift through the transactions.

Ramirez was awful for the first two months of 2010, driving his value so far down that he didn't dare test the free agent market.  If he can return to career levels in 2011, the Cubs might just be compelled to choose his $16MM club option for 2012 over a $2MM buyout.  Overall it's a positive to have him penciled in for another season, given the weak market for third basemen.

Pena replaces Derrek Lee at first base on a standard-issue Boras Corporation make-good contract.  If Pena finds his first National League season to his liking at age 33, perhaps he can ride a 35 home run season to a big free agent deal. 

Pena's one-year term opens up the possibility of the Cubs bidding on the big names next winter: Albert Pujols, Prince Fielder, and Adrian Gonzalez if his rumored extension isn't finalized for some reason.  A $140MM payroll would allow the Cubs to sign any of these sluggers, as they'd be under $110MM in 2012 commitments even with Ramirez and accounting for arbitration raises.  Still, I doubt the Cubs are thinking about next year's free agents whatsoever at this point.

Back to 2011: the Cubs were able to augment their bullpen on the cheap, with Wood's $1.5MM deal drawing comparisons to Andre Dawson's blank check offer.  Wood doesn't need to win an MVP award, though - he just needs to give the Cubs 50 solid innings and keep the walks down.  Wood will be setting up Carlos Marmol, whose odd statistical profile didn't prevent the Cubs from buying out his last two arbitration seasons and one free agent year for $20MM.  Marmol's 15.99 K/9 was the highest in baseball history among pitchers with 25 innings in a season, and it followed that he was stingy on hits and home runs.  But like Wood, Andrew Cashner, and John Grabow, he struggled with walks.  It's easy to dream on the back end of the Cubs' bullpen this year, but this seems to be an especially volatile bunch.

Garza

Hendry's big splash was the addition of Garza.  It wasn't clear Garza would be made available at the outset of the offseason, but the Rays seemingly held a covert bidding war and cashed the righty in for a big chunk of the Cubs' farm system.  Baseball America ranked the Cubs' system eighth in baseball prior to the deal, but the Rays now have the Chicago prospects formerly ranked #1, 4, 10, and 16.  In Archer, Guyer, and Chirinos, the Cubs surrendered prospects almost certain to play in the Majors soon.  The Cubs restored a touch of depth with the signings of Cuban players Silva and Cabezas as well as the Gorzelanny trade.

As you'd expect, the Cubs paid dearly for three years of Garza, who posted a sub-4.00 ERA over about 600 AL East innings over the last three seasons.  Garza has the stuff and reputation of a #2 starter, even if his strikeout rates in '08 and '10 don't quite match up.  It wasn't surprising to see the Cubs move Gorzelanny, though even with the lefty's inconsistency he might have been nice to have around with Carloses Zambrano and Silva not considered reliable.

The team's minor league signings focused on players who had already been in the organization.  They also coaxed Looper out of semi-retirement, and the Cubs are probably hoping he or Casey Coleman is Gorzelanny's equal as a sixth starter.  In the Cubs' perfect world, Andrew Cashner would beat out the less exciting rotation candidates, pushing Silva or Randy Wells to the pen.

Despite a rookie-filled second half last year, the Cubs are going for it in '11 with Mike Quade at the helm for his first full season.  Hendry chose to pay the price in prospects as opposed to cash, after watching the Brewers do the same on a more exaggerated level.  The Cubs enter 2011 as an expensive underdog in the NL Central, but with enough young talent and wild cards to make things interesting.

Photo courtesy Icon SMI.

Fukudome Wants To Play In MLB, With Cubs

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Kosuke Fukudome, whose contract expires after the coming season, told MLB.com's Carrie Muskat that he wants to continue his MLB career after 2011 (Twitter link). The 33-year-old, who bought a house in Chicago, says he'd like to remain with the Cubs.

Fukudome earns $13.5MM this year in the final season of the four-year, $48MM deal he signed before the 2008 season. He hit .263/.371/.439 with 13 homers in 429 plate appearances last year. The left-handed hitter may not have lived up to expectations, but he does have a .368 OBP in his three years in the majors.

Make Or Break Year: Aramis Ramirez

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484083020100846A_Pirates_at_Cubs Despite posting outstanding numbers at the hot corner for one of baseball's best-known franchises, Cubs third baseman Aramis Ramirez always seemed to fly a little bit under the radar. Indeed, in a six-year span from 2004-09, Ramirez posted a studly triple-slash line of .303/.368/.551, but he never finished inside the top 10 of NL MVP voting. Durability was a bit of a concern during that time, as he averaged 131 games per season, but his injuries were typically of the nagging variety rather than debilitating.

In 2009, though, Ramirez suffered a dislocated shoulder midseason, missing most of May and all of June that year, but he returned in the second half and posted his usually solid offensive numbers. It all pointed toward Ramirez being his usual self in 2010, but it didn't happen that way.

A-Ram got off to a positively miserable start in April and May 2010, posting a .162/.227/.269 through those two months, and though he rebounded from there — going white-hot during July, in particular — his numbers at season's end still weren't pretty at .241/.294/.452, let alone up to his usually excellent career averages of .282/.340/.499.

Was it age catching up to the 32-year-old slugger? Injuries? A combination?

On the plus side for A-Ram, he bounced back markedly from his horrid April and May in 2010. On the down side, though, he is another year older, and he doesn't necessarily look like the most limber of athletes.

How Ramirez will contine to age is anyone's guess, but 2011 could go a long way toward projecting how he'll finish out his career. It's the last year of a five-year extension he signed with the Cubs prior to 2007, and it includes a $16MM club option for 2012 with a $2MM buyout.

Ramirez probably doesn't have much room for decline this season with respect to the chances of the Cubs picking up that pricey option, as it'd be hard to justify paying a third baseman that much money after two down years as he heads into his age-34 campaign. On the flip side, if he returns to his old form in 2011, the option could very well be exercised, and he'll again be facing a Make or Break Year in 2012.

Photo courtesy of Icon SMI.

Albert Pujols Rumors: Wednesday

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The countdown that began weeks ago continues in earnest this morning as the Cardinals and Albert Pujols enter the final few hours before the Pujols-imposed deadline to reach an extension. If the sides don't agree to terms by 11am CDT, Pujols says he'll stop negotiating until after the season, when he'd become a highly-coveted free agent. There's "zero" momentum for a deal, though the talks still have a pulse. Here's the latest on the Cardinals and their first baseman:

  • Bob Nightengale of USA Today reports that Pujols has informed the Cardinals that he's willing to revisit talks after the season (Twitter links). He doesn't want any distractions during the season.
  • Rival executives expect the Cubs to pursue Pujols, according to Jon Heyman of SI.com. One exec says “They'll give him the A-Rod deal'' and another guesses "They'll give him $33MM or $34MM for seven years.''
  • Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports hears from a source that St. Louis' offer would have given Pujols about the tenth-highest annual salary in the game, which translates to about $19-21MM (Twitter links). The exact length of the offer is unknown.
  • GM John Mozeliak said the team will not consider trading Pujols, reports SI.com's Jon Heyman (on Twitter). Pujols has already indicated that he would invoke his ten-and-five rights to veto any deal.
  • The Cardinals announced that they weren't able to reach a deal with Pujols and will meet with the media at 11:30 CDT. 
  • There's zero chance of a deal by the deadline, according to Nightengale (on Twitter).
  • The sides are not engaging in last-minute talks and there's no chance of a deal in the next hour, according to Scott Miller of CBS Sports (on Twitter).
  • The talks are over and the deadline will pass without a deal, according to ESPN.com's Buster Olney (Twitter links). The sides have not exchanged proposals in the last four days or so and there's still a significant gap on annual salary.
  • Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports agrees: there will be no deal today (Twitter link).
  • The sides aren't expected to reach a deal by the deadline, writes Scott Miller of CBS Sports (on Twitter).
  • The Phillies anticipated this situation before locking Ryan Howard up, according to ESPN.com's Buster Olney (Twitter links). The Phils discussed a possible Howard-Pujols trade internally.
  • Pujols doesn't have illusions of reaching a miraculous deal, according to Bob Nightengale of USA Today (on Twitter).
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