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Offseason Outlook: Chicago Cubs

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In conjunction with this post, Tim Dierkes held a Cubs-centric live chat on 10-18-22.  Read the transcript here.

The time has come for the Cubs to add significant talent, but are they willing to make long-term commitments?

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Marcus Stroman, SP: $46MM through 2024.  Can opt out of remaining one year and $21MM after 2023 season
  • Jason Heyward, RF: $22MM through 2023
  • Kyle Hendricks, SP: $15.5MM through 2023.  Includes $16MM club option for 2024
  • Seiya Suzuki, RF: $73MM through 2026
  • Yan Gomes, C: $7MM through 2023.  Includes $6MM club option for 2024
  • David Bote, 3B: $10.5MM through 2024.  Includes $7MM club option for 2025 and $7.6MM club option for 2026

Total 2023 commitments: $92.5MM
Total future commitments: $181.5MM

Option Decisions

  • Drew Smyly, SP: $10MM mutual option with a $1MM buyout

Arbitration-Eligible Players (service time in parantheses; salary projections via Matt Swartz)

Free Agents

The 2022 Cubs played to their low preseason expectations.  FanGraphs pegged them for 75 wins, and they won 74.  It was an assortment of players that seemed unlikely to contend, but could maybe hang on the fringes of playoff contention.

As it turned out, the Cubs posted an abysmal 35-57 first half and were out of contention very quickly, but salvaged their record and created optimism in some quarters with a 39-31 second half.  How much of that success is sustainable, and who will president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer pursue this winter to turn this team into a contender?

The rotation posted a 2.89 ERA in the second half, which ranked third in baseball.  This fact was touted by owner Tom Ricketts in his annual letter to fans, so it’s worth a deeper look.  One stat that jumps out is the rotation’s MLB-best 80.1% left-on-base percentage in the second half.  Coupled with a below-average strikeout rate, there’s little indication the Cubs’ starting pitchers are actually skilled at stranding baserunners.

Eight Cubs pitchers made four or more starts in the second half.  Two of them, Drew Smyly and Wade Miley, are headed toward free agency.  The remaining six: Marcus Stroman, Adrian Sampson, Justin Steele, Javier Assad, Hayden Wesneski, and Keegan Thompson.

Stroman dealt with COVID-19 and shoulder inflammation early this year, but was excellent in 16 starts to close out his season.  While the veteran serves as the Cubs’ nominal ace heading into his age-32 campaign, he’s also likely to opt out of the remaining $21MM on his contract with a solid 2023.  Stroman is a good player to have for ’23, but he’ll essentially be in a contract year and thus isn’t a long-term piece.

As for Smyly, the Cubs are expected to talk to his agent this month about a new contract, according to Maddie Lee of the Chicago Sun-Times.  If the Cubs were to sign Smyly to a two-year deal, it’d cover his age 34-35 seasons.  Smyly’s 22 starts this year went about as well as could be expected, and the temptation to lock in a veteran for next year is understandable.  Smyly did miss all of June with an oblique strain, and battled shoulder fatigue in the season’s final two weeks.  This year’s 106 1/3 innings is about all a team can expect from him.  Even cherry-picking to leave out April and September, Smyly still averaged fewer than five innings per start.  He had a below-average strikeout rate, too, instead succeeding based on a low walk rate and weak contact.  There may be some recency bias at play here in the expectation that Smyly’s modest 2022 success will continue.

The Cubs did turn up a pair of interesting, under-30 potential long-term rotation pieces in the second half: Justin Steele and Hayden Wesneski.  Steele, a 27-year-old southpaw, closed out his season with a run of 14 starts featured a sparkling 2.05 ERA and solid 16 K-BB%.  For a two-month span, Steele looked, at least, like one of the 20 best pitchers in the game.  He missed all of September due to a back injury, so the next step in his development will be to increase his innings beyond this year’s 119.

Wesneski, 25 in December, came via a shrewd one-for-one trade with the Yankees for reliever Scott Effross.  Wesneski posted an excellent 2.18 ERA in 33 innings with the peripherals to match, but it was only 33 innings and his 5.3% walk rate in the Majors is likely unsustainable.

At present the Cubs can really only write Stroman and Steele into their 2023 rotation.  World Series hero Kyle Hendricks has at least one year left on his contract, but his season ended in July due to a capsular tear in his right shoulder.  The Cubs can hope for a return to form, but can’t count on Hendricks.  Of the other rotation candidates, Sampson and Assad had the best results, combining for a 3.19 ERA in 27 starts.  Neither had the peripheral stats to back up an ERA below 4.50.  The bottom line is that a competitive 2023 team will need to add at least two starting pitchers this winter.  Even if one of them is Smyly, who else might the Cubs consider?

Asked about adding a top of the rotation starter – which the Cubs obviously need – Hoyer replied, “I think it’s important that we continue to add quality innings.  We’re actively looking for quality innings, pitchers we feel like we can work with and potentially make better.”  To me, this is mostly classic GM-speak that doesn’t reveal much about offseason plans, though Gordon Wittenmyer of NBC Sports feels Hoyer’s comment suggests sights set somewhere below one of the best pitchers on the free agent market, Carlos Rodon.

I believe the Cubs are committed to avoiding risky contracts, and wouldn’t take the plunge on a starter like Rodon unless, like Stroman, he could somehow be landed on a three-year deal.  While I agree with the speculation that Justin Verlander and Jacob deGrom are unlikely to join the 2023 Cubs, I think the market is rife with opportunities for good pitchers who can be had with commitments of three or fewer years.  And keep in mind, the three-year limitation is only my speculation.

It’s easy to see the Cubs focusing some interest on older but recently-effective starters who shouldn’t require excessive years: Tyler Anderson, Chris Bassitt, Nathan Eovaldi, Andrew Heaney, and Jameson Taillon are a few who come to mind.  It’s also easy to see Hoyer turning back to Japan for Kodai Senga, who turns 30 in January and just posted a 1.89 ERA in 148 innings for the Softbank Hawks.  A four-year deal for Senga at an AAV below that of the typical MLB-experienced free agent ace could be possible.  Zach Eflin could be another name to watch, as the soon-to-be free agent righty doesn’t turn 29 until April.  The Cubs could pursue Shane Bieber or Pablo Lopez via trade, and that market always includes a few surprises every winter.  If Shohei Ohtani is made available, the Cubs would have to at least gauge the asking price and consider converting some of their prospect capital into the superstar they’re lacking.

Turning to the bullpen, the Cubs were relying on Brandon Hughes, Manny Rodriguez, Mark Leiter Jr., Adbert Alzolay, and Keegan Thompson in high leverage situations in the season’s final month.  That was necessitated by the club’s veteran bullpen purge, which saw David Robertson, Mychal Givens, Chris Martin, and Effross sent packing in trades.  It seems likely Hoyer will continue deploying his strategy of one-year deals for veteran free agent relievers, with the specific names impossible to predict.

On the position player side, the Cubs seem content with Happ and Suzuki at the corners again next year.  While neither fit the profile as a middle of the order masher, both outfielders posted offensive numbers at least 16% better than league average.  At 3.5 WAR, Happ put together the best season of his career in 2022, and the Cubs will at least explore an extension.  My guess is that Happ won’t be retained long-term, with prospects Brennen Davis and Alexander Canario near MLB-ready.

The Cubs gave most of their center field reps to Christopher Morel and Rafael Ortega in 2022.  While Morel had a solid rookie season overall, there’s a good chance the Cubs will look outside the organization for short-term help in center.  A one-year deal for Cody Bellinger (who’s likely to be non-tendered by the Dodgers) could be interesting, or the Cubs could take a more defense-minded approach with Kevin Kiermaier.  Long-term, the Cubs will likely keep center field open for top prospect Pete Crow-Armstrong, who finished 2022 at High-A.

The Cubs surprisingly held on to catcher Willson Contreras at the trade deadline this year, presumably because they felt the offers were worse than the draft pick they would receive if he turns down a qualifying offer.  That pick would be between Competitive Balance Round B and Round 3 in next summer’s draft.  Contreras, 31 in May, will likely seek a four or five-year deal in free agency, and the Cubs have not seemed interested in hammering something out to retain their longtime backstop.

A Contreras departure would leave the Cubs reliant on Yan Gomes and P.J. Higgins behind the plate.  Prospect Miguel Amaya is recovering from injuries and has yet to play above Double-A, but could be a factor for the Cubs in the second half.  The free agent market features a typical array of veteran catchers, and there’s a decent chance the Cubs will sign one to bolster their depth.

Alfonso Rivas, 26, led the Cubs in defensive innings at first base.  He managed just an 82 wRC+ in 287 plate appearances.  The Cubs released Frank Schwindel in September, and simply don’t have much at the position.  Much of their DH time went to Franmil Reyes, Contreras, and Schwindel.  Reyes posted a 94 wRC+ in 193 plate appearances for the Cubs after being claimed off waivers from the Guardians, and the team may choose not to tender him a contract and instead keep their options open.

This leaves the Cubs hurting for offense at two traditionally easier-to-fill positions in first base and DH.  The ship may have sailed on Anthony Rizzo even if he does opt out of his Yankees contract, but free agency offers names like Jose Abreu, Brandon Belt, J.D. Martinez, Matt Carpenter, and Michael Brantley.  The Cubs may also find some at-bats for Matt Mervis, who would be a 25-year-old rookie next year and had a huge 2022 with the bat as he ascended from High-A to Triple-A.

The Cubs could also look to upgrade at third base, after a 1.1 WAR season from Patrick Wisdom.  Wisdom, who has also played some first base and left field, could still stick around as a lefty-masher.  If Nolan Arenado doesn’t reach free agency, the third base market looks thin.  Names like Brandon Drury or Evan Longoria could be in play.

Nico Hoerner’s breakout 4-WAR 2022 campaign affords the Cubs some intriguing possibilities.  The first could be an extension for Hoerner, perhaps with J.P. Crawford’s four-year, $46.15MM extension serving as a guidepost.  Though Hoerner logged almost all of his innings at shortstop this year and got above-average defensive marks, the Cubs have signaled a willingness to move him to second base next year.  That could make playing time hard to come by for Nick Madrigal, but the 25-year-old contact specialist put up just a 70 wRC+ in 228 plate appearances this year.

Speculation has been heavy on the possibility of the Cubs signing one of the four big free agent shortstops: Trea Turner, Xander Bogaerts, Dansby Swanson, or Carlos Correa.  Owner Tom Ricketts did nothing to dispel that notion, saying in his letter to fans, “We will be active in free agency and have the necessary resources available to substantially supplement our current roster.”  Hoyer told reporters, “I have total confidence — if we get to a place where we ask for a significant amount of money to sign one player or several players — that we’ll have his blessing. And I have no doubt the resources will be there.”

Hoyer has also been known to talk about “intelligent” spending.  He elaborated recently, “To me, intelligent spending involves making decisions that make sense for the 2023 season but also aren’t going to hinder what we’re trying to build. The nature of baseball contracts is challenging that way. We’ve all seen contracts of certain lengths that can really bog a team down. It’s easy to talk about the player you’re acquiring, but if that contract ends up hindering the ultimate goal here, which is to build something special and sustainable and lasting, then it wasn’t a good transaction.”

Regret set in pretty quickly for the Cubs’ last two $100MM deals.  With Jason Heyward’s eight-year, $184MM deal, he simply never hit as the Cubs expected, and Hoyer told reporters in August that the club will release him and eat the $22MM remaining on his contract for 2023.  Darvish was traded for prospects halfway through his six-year deal.  Heyward’s contract, in particular, contributed to the Ricketts family keeping the checkbook closed after the 2018 and ’19 seasons.

We at MLBTR are still deliberating our free agent contract projections, but all of the big four shortstops figure to hit the market seeking seven or eight-year deals. Bogaerts, Turner, Swanson, and Correa were born within a two-year span of each other.  Bogaerts, the oldest, recently turned 30.  Correa, the youngest, just celebrated his 28th birthday.  That gap may not seem like much, but the Cubs are clearly worried about entering another long-term deal they’ll quickly regret.  That’s why I could see some favor for Correa, who could sign a seven-year deal that would still only take him through age 34.

Considering likely non-tenders, the Cubs appear to have about $107MM tied up for a dozen players in 2023, including Heyward’s money.  Assuming Stroman opts out after ’23, the Cubs have a mere two players under contract for 2024 with Suzuki making $20MM and Bote at $5.5MM.  The initial competitive balance tax thresholds are set at $233MM in 2023 and $237MM in 2024.  The Cubs, in one of the country’s largest markets, are currently $217MM below the first CBT threshold for 2024 if Stroman opts out.

There are no players the Cubs can’t afford, up to and including Aaron Judge.  But with Judge turning 31 in April and looking to be paid through age-38 and beyond – and with the Cubs’ outfield in decent long-term shape – he seems an unlikely target.

The Cubs are not remotely close to the CBT.  While teams have stopped paying top free agents through age 41, as the Angels did with Albert Pujols a decade ago, paying stars through age 37 is still often the only way to get them.  And even deals for the youngest of free agents can go bust; it’s hard to find a free agent younger than the 26 Heyward was when the Cubs signed him.

The Cubs outspent expectations last winter with over $200MM in commitments, yet still avoided the leap of faith required to sign the top players on the market.  With the payroll looking increasingly clear and two rebuilding seasons in the rearview, we’ll find out soon how far the Cubs are willing to go.

Report: Cubs Interested In Jose Abreu

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The Cubs could be looking across town for a lineup boost, as Bruce Levine of 670 The Score (Twitter link) reports that longtime White Sox first baseman Jose Abreu may be a free agent target for the Wrigleyville club.  2022 was the last season of Abreu’s three-year, $50MM contract with the Sox.

Since free agency doesn’t officially open until five days after the World Series, the White Sox are the only team who can negotiate with the first baseman for the time being, and a new deal can’t be ruled out.  Abreu has often spoken of his desire to remain with the Sox for his entire career, and the front office has likewise regularly praised Abreu’s contributions on and off the field.  Abreu’s last trip to the open market ended up not being very open, as his representatives didn’t even talk to other teams before Abreu accepted Chicago’s qualifying offer prior to signing his three-year pact.

This time around, however, there is a little more doubt that Abreu will remain on the south side of Chicago.  Abreu recently said that there hadn’t been any extension talks with the White Sox front office, and with Abreu turning 36 years old in January, the Sox might prefer to move onto younger options at first base.  Shifting Andrew Vaughn or Gavin Sheets to first base would help the White Sox defensively, and moving on from Abreu’s contract would also free up some payroll space for a team that already has quite a bit of money committed to the 2023 team.

However, since the team’s 2022 payroll already set a new franchise record by topping the $193MM mark, owner Jerry Reinsdorf may have no problem with continued spending to keep Abreu in the fold.  It’s not like Abreu is slowing down much in his mid-30’s — he hit .304/.378/.446 with 15 homers over 679 plate appearances in 2022, with strong hard-contact, strikeout, and walk rates.  Abreu’s power numbers took a drop, yet thanks to improvements in his batting average and on-base percentage, Abreu’s wRC+ was better in 2022 (137) than in 2021 (125).

Any number of teams will have interest in Abreu if he is indeed open to leaving the White Sox, and some of those suitors might be more clear-cut contenders than a Cubs team who went 74-88 in 2022.  Joining the Cubs would allow Abreu to keep his family in Chicago, of course, though it wouldn’t necessarily present a quicker path to winning baseball.

That said, there is enough flux in the NL Central that the Cubs could get back into the hunt with a big offseason, and has been some indication from both ownership and from the front office that the Cubs are turn back towards competing after two years of rebuilding.  Even last winter, the signings of Marcus Stroman and Seiya Suzuki to multi-year contracts were indicative that the Cubs didn’t plan on staying in rebuild mode for too long, even if Stroman’s deal does contain an opt-out after the 2023 campaign.

An Abreu signing might fit into this shorter-term model, as a three-year deal might be the most Abreu could hope to achieve as he heads into his age-36 season.  His continued production should still merit a comfortable average annual value on that next contract, yet teams will naturally be wary about committing too many years to a player of Abreu’s age.

Signing Abreu would add some veteran stability to the lineup, and immediately address a hole at first base.  Prospect Matt Mervis posted huge numbers at the Double-A and Triple-A levels in 2022 and seems ready for a shot at the big leagues, though entrusting Mervis with an everyday job right off the bat could be a risky move.  If both Abreu and Mervis were in the fold, the Cubs could toggle the two between first base and DH, allowing for both some rest days for Abreu and time for Mervis to show that he can do against MLB pitching.

Bruce Sutter Passes Away

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The Cardinals announced that Hall of Fame pitcher and World Series champion Bruce Sutter has passed away. He was 69 years old.

MLB commissioner Rob Manfred released a statement in regards to Sutter’s passing: “I am deeply saddened by the news of the passing of Bruce Sutter, whose career was an incredible baseball success story. Bruce ascended from being a nondrafted free agent to the heights of Baseball by pioneering the split-fingered fastball.  That pitch not only led him to the Major Leagues, but also made him a Cy Young Award winner with the Cubs and a World Series Champion with the 1982 Cardinals.  Bruce was the first pitcher to reach the Hall of Fame without starting a game, and he was one of the key figures who foreshadowed how the use of relievers would evolve. Bruce will be remembered as one of the best pitchers in the histories of two of our most historic franchises.  On behalf of Major League Baseball, I extend my condolences to Bruce’s family, his friends and his fans in Chicago, St. Louis, Atlanta and throughout our game.”

Sutter was initially drafted by the Washington Senators in 1970 but decided to attend Old Dominion University instead. The next year, as Manfred mentioned, Sutter signed with the Cubs as a nondrafted free agent. He underwent surgery in the minors but found his pitches to be less effective after returning to action. He started working on a splitter to improve his repertoire, a pitch that would come to define his career.

He made his MLB debut with the Cubs in 1976. He was an effective reliever right away, throwing 83 1/3 innings over 52 appearances, registering a 2.70 ERA and notching 10 saves. He took a step forward the next year, throwing 107 1/3 innings in 62 games with a 1.34 ERA and 31 saves. He made the All-Star team that year, the first of six teams he would eventually make in his career.

Sutter continued along in that fashion for the next few seasons, racking up saves while pitching multi-inning outings. In 1979, he was given the Cy Young award for his efforts, a rare feat for a relief pitcher. He saved 37 games that year while recording a 2.22 ERA in 101 1/3 innings.

He was traded from the Cubs to the Cardinals prior to the 1981 campaign and would spend four seasons in St. Louis, largely continuing with the same level of excellence he had established in Chicago. 1982 was certainly a season to remember for both Sutter and the Cards. The club went 92-70 during the regular season, winning the NL East on the back of a 36-save season from Sutter. They swept the Braves 3-0 in the NLCS, with Sutter earning the win in Game 2 and the save in Game 3. They then faced off against the Brewers in the World Series and eventually emerged victorious in seven games, with Sutter winning Game 2 and then saving Game 3 and Game 7. (Video of Sutter recording the final out via MLB.com’s YouTube page.)

Sutter reached free agency and signed with Atlanta prior to the 1985 season, though his effectiveness started to wane as he got into his 30s. He posted an ERA above 4.00 in his first two years in Atlanta, missed the 1987 season entirely due to shoulder surgery, before returning in 1988 to post a 4.76 ERA in what would be his final season.

He wrapped up his MLB career with exactly 300 saves, which was the third-most in history at that time, behind only Rollie Fingers and Goose Gossage. He also collected 68 victories while posting a 2.83 ERA in a career that included 1042 1/3 innings. He made six All-Star teams, won a Cy Young award and a World Series title. After lingering on the Hall of Fame ballot for over a decade, Sutter was eventually elected in 2006, his 13th year on the ballot.

MLBTR sends our condolences to his family, friends, loved ones and former teammates who are mourning him today.

Ian Happ Transformed Himself In 2022

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It’s been a difficult couple of years for Cubs fans, as the team finished 74-88 in 2022, just a few wins better than the 71-91 record they posted in a 2021 season that saw the team trade Anthony Rizzo, Kris Bryant, and Javier Baez, among other players, at the trade deadline. While the Cubs may have only made marginal improvements in the standings this year, there are some bright spots. Both Marcus Stroman and Seiya Suzuki delivered in their first years in Cubs uniforms, and young players like Nico Hoerner, Christopher Morel, and Justin Steele all gave fans reason to hope with encouraging 2022 performances.

Leading the pack in that regard was Ian Happ, who had a transformational year in 2022 en route to his first All-Star selection. In 520 career games entering the 2022 season, Happ slashed .241/.338/.467 (113 wRC+) and had shown himself to be a primarily three true outcomes hitter. Among hitters from 2017-2021 with at least 1500 plate appearances, Happ’s 12% walk rate ranked 31st in the majors and his .226 ISO (slugging percentage minus batting average) ranked 51st. While those numbers on their own would put Happ in a similar conversation as the likes of Christian Yelich and Paul Goldschmidt, his 30.8% strikeout rate ranked 4th among qualifiers over that timeframe, severely hampering his overall production. This, combined with defensive assignments such as second base and center field where he looked overmatched, left Happ entering the 2022 season with just 6.9 career fWAR.

The 2022 season saw Happ play like a completely different player. He still takes his walks, though the 9% rate at which he did so in 2022 is reduced from his previous career norms, but the power output has changed dramatically. Formerly a player who could be relied upon for 20-25 home runs over the course of a full season, Happ hit just 17 home runs in 2022 despite having more plate appearances this season than any other in his career: a result of his career-worst 6.5% barrel rate.

What Happ gave up in power, he made up for in increased contact. His strikeout rate plummeted all the way to 23.2% in 2022, a remarkable improvement for a player who as recently as last year finished with the 10th-highest strikeout rate among qualified batters. This reduction in strikeouts came off the back of significantly reduced whiffs. Happ posted a contact rate of 75% this season, a significant improvement over his 67.6% career rate entering the 2022 season.

In addition to his improvement in terms of contact, Happ also saw much of his lost home run power convert to doubles power. While his low home run total in 2022 may seem concerning on the surface, Happ hit a whopping 42 doubles this season, tied for sixth-most in the majors and more than doubling his previous career high of 20. With fewer whiffs and more doubles, Happ’s .271/.342/.440 slash line in 2022, good for a wRC+ of 120, left him hitting better than he ever had in a full season. He was also more consistent as a hitter in 2022, able to handle both lefties and righties with equal effectiveness. While Happ has struggled against lefties for his career (posting just a .717 OPS against them in 584 plate appearances), in 2022 he actually posted slightly better numbers against lefties than righties for the first time in his career: a .788 OPS against lefties compared to a .780 OPS against righties.

Along with his growth at the plate, Happ was a positive contributor in the field for the first time in his career in 2022. A full-time shift to left field has done wonders for Happ’s defensive value; his +2 OAA in 2022 ranks fourth among qualified left fielders and trails only Adam Duvall in the NL. All of this growth saw Happ post a 3.5 fWAR in 2022, more than his totals for 2020 and 2021 combined.

MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects Happ to make $10.6MM for 2023 in his final trip through arbitration. A free agent at the end of the 2023 season, Happ’s future is uncertain. President of baseball operations Jed Hoyer told reporters this week the team has laid the groundwork for extension discussions with some key players this offseason, although there’s no indication a deal with Happ (or any other player) is close. The Cubs have doled out just two contract extensions in the past four years: one to Kyle Hendricks during Spring Training in 2019, and one to David Bote just a few days later. Furthermore, for an organization with top prospects such as Brennen Davis, Pete Crow-Armstrong, and Alexander Canario manning the outfield in the upper levels of the minors — not to mention Suzuki under contract to man right field through the 2026 season — an extension for a player who’s just shown his best position to be left field may not necessarily be prudent.

Given all this, it seems likely that Happ will be playing elsewhere sometime soon, whether that’s in time for Spring Training next year, after next year’s trade deadline, or after Happ tests free agency for the first time. One speculative fit would be with the crosstown White Sox, who have a collection of talented players but had one of the least productive outfield units in the majors in 2022. Furthermore, Happ’s switch-hitting capabilities would be an excellent change of pace for a club that relies on the righty bats of Eloy Jimenez, Luis Robert, AJ Pollock, and Andrew Vaughn when it comes to manning the outfield. The Red Sox, Marlins, Rangers and Giants are among other teams who missed the postseason this year and could stand to make improvements to their outfield going forward. As for teams that made it into the postseason, the Braves may look to improve upon their internal left field options of Eddie Rosario and Marcell Ozuna, while the Rays will need outfield help with the likes of David Peralta and Kevin Kiermaier likely hitting free agency this offseason.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Jed Hoyer Discusses Cubs’ Upcoming Offseason

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After six straight winning seasons from 2015 to 2020, which included five postseason berths and a World Series title, the Cubs have entered a rebuild and finished below .500 the past two years. As the fans hope for better days ahead, club chairman Tom Ricketts released a statement as the team switches gears from the season to the offseason.

“We will be active in free agency and have the necessary resources available to substantially supplement our current roster,” Ricketts says, as relayed by Tim Stebbins of NBC Sports Chicago. “As [president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer] has demonstrated, we will be driven by intelligent decision-making as we build a roster that can win games in the postseason – year in and year out.”

The word “active” in that statement is likely attractive to some, though it’s worth pointing that it can mean many different things. The Cubs were certainly active in free agency last year, giving out 12 deals to players who were on the open market. However, Seiya Suzuki was a special case since he was 27 years old at the time and coming over from playing in Japan. Marcus Stroman got a substantial deal, but on a shorter-than-expected three-year term with an opt out after year two. Apart from that, the deals for veterans were all on the modest side, both in terms of dollars and years.

Hoyer talked about spending money “intelligently” last year and Rickets echoed that in his statement. Hoyer, too, doubled down on his own comments from a year ago. “I think last year we talked a lot about intelligent spending, and I think we’ll certainly look to do that again.”

The shape of that spending remains to be seen, but the club should have some money to work with. The club had an Opening Day payroll of $143MM this year, in the estimation of Cot’s Baseball Contracts, a far cry from their previous high of $203MM in 2019. For next year, their commitments are currently around $109MM without factoring in arbitration-eligible players, per Jason Martinez of Roster Resource. Looking at the arbitration projections from MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz, retaining the entire class would cost the Cubs around $25MM, though not all of those players will be tendered contracts.

Even if the club plans to roll out a similar payroll in 2023 as they did this year, they would have some room to work with, though it’s possible that number could go up. “If we get to a place where we ask for a significant amount of money to sign one player or several players, I have no doubt that we’ll have his blessing,” Hoyer said during a recent conference, per Maddie Lee of the Chicago Sun-Times. “And I have no doubt the resources will be there.”

It’s been previously reported that the Cubs have interest in pursuing this winter’s crop of marquee free agent shortstops, though it’s unclear how aggressive they will be in that pursuit. Dansby Swanson and Trea Turner are slated for free agency, with Xander Bogaerts and Carlos Correa widely expected to join them by opting out of their respective contracts. Each of those four will require a significant investment, of course, with all of them likely to earn nine-figure deals. The Cubs haven’t given out a contract of that size since the Yu Darvish deal back in 2018, when they were much more firmly in win-now mode. If they don’t shop in the expensive aisle, there’s a significant drop to the next-best available shortstops, with Jose Iglesias and Elvis Andrus highlighting the second tier.

Of course, it’s also possible that the club uses its resources on players already on the roster, locking them up for future seasons via extension. Two players who could be candidates are outfielder Ian Happ and infielder Nico Hoerner. When asked about whether the club has talked to those players about new contracts, Hoyer tells Lee that they have “taken the first steps.”

In the case of Happ, he has just a single year of team control remaining and is projected to earn a salary of about $10.6MM next season. Due to his approaching free agency, he was often mentioned in trade rumors this summer but ended up sticking with the Cubs beyond the deadline. 2022 was his sixth season in the big leagues, with Happ posting above-average offense in each of them. This year, his .271/.342/.440 batting line was 20% above league average, by measure of wRC+. His work in the outfield was also graded positively, leading to him producing 3.5 wins above replacement this year, in the eyes of FanGraphs. He just turned 28 and will therefore be heading into free agency shortly after his 29th birthday, meaning the Cubs would likely have to cut a decent check to get him to forgo that opportunity.

In Hoerner’s case, he’s just 25 and heading into his first arbitration season, projected to get a salary of $2.2MM next year. Given his extra control, it’s more likely that he will be playing for the next competitive Cubs team and could theoretically be a higher priority for the team. He had a very nice all-around season here in 2022, hitting 10 home runs and stealing 20 bases. He hit .281/.327/.410 for a wRC+ of 106 and also provided excellent shortstop defense, leading to a tally of 4.0 fWAR for the year.

Of course, if the Cubs succeed in convincing a free agent shortstop to join the club, they would have to figure out how to get that player into the lineup next to Hoerner. It seems the most likely path would be Hoerner moving over to second base, a position he has played before. Patrick Mooney of The Athletic relays that Hoyer doesn’t see a problem with moving Hoerner to the other side of the bag, especially with the new anti-shift rules that go into place next year. With less shifting, it’s possible teams will look to have an extra level of athleticism at the keystone to provide greater range, something that is less necessary with shifting.

“We have total confidence in Nico’s ability to play shortstop,” Hoyer says. “But, yes, the way the game is trending, athleticism in the middle infield will make a big difference.” It doesn’t seem like Hoerner would put up a fight if the club asked him to make the switch. “He actually gets mad when you talk about him, which is pretty amazing,” Hoyer said. “He wants to talk about the Cubs. He wants to talk about winning. He wants to talk about the culture. So it was pretty easy with him. As long as you’re talking about winning and what can make us great, Nico’s totally on board.”

There are still many directions the offseason can go for Chicago, and there are reasons to be slightly more optimistic than a year ago. Despite another losing season, the club finished strong, going 33-28 from the start of August until the end of the schedule. “We certainly want next season to look a lot more like our second half than our first half,” Hoyer says, per Lee. “And if it does, we do have a chance to be in the race and play meaningful games throughout the entire season. And, hopefully, that means competing in October.” How aggressive they are in bolstering their roster for next year will be determined in the months to come.

Cubs, Drew Smyly To Discuss Possible Contract Extension

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The Cubs are facing the potential free agent departures of a pair of veteran starters, with both Drew Smyly and Wade Miley headed towards the open market a month from now. Miley will be a free agent, while Smyly’s contract contains a $10MM mutual option with a $1MM buyout for the 2023 campaign.

Theoretically, a team will only exercise its end of a mutual option if it feels the price is at or below the player’s market value. The player, conversely, will typically only trigger his end if he feels the option price is at or above what he could find on the open market. Thus, mutual options are almost never exercised by both parties. In the vast majority of cases, players with mutual options are essentially impending free agents.

That’s the case for Smyly, but there’s a chance he doesn’t remain unsigned until free agency. Maddie Lee of the Chicago Sun-Times reports the Cubs are planning to meet with the left-hander’s representatives at Frontline later this month to discuss a potential new contract. Lee notes it’s unlikely Smyly will return on the terms of the mutual option itself but it’s possible the sides can line up on a new deal. As is the case with all impending free agents, the Cubs will have an exclusive negotiating window with Smyly until five days after the end of the World Series.

Smyly has technically had a pair of stints as a Cub, although he didn’t throw a pitch with Chicago until 2022. He signed a two-year deal heading into the 2018 season, with the Cubs aware he’d miss all of that season rehabbing from Tommy John surgery. After the ’18 campaign, Chicago dealt him to the Rangers. Smyly pitched for four different teams from 2019-21 before returning to the Cubs on a one-year deal this spring. He received a $4.25MM salary for this past season and will be guaranteed another $1MM on the option buyout.

The 33-year-old had a generally solid return season to the North Siders. He missed a month mid-summer with a right oblique strain, but he otherwise stayed healthy enough to take the ball 22 times. Across 106 1/3 innings, Smyly posted a 3.47 ERA. He struck out a career-worst 20.4% of opponents, leading to less favorable reviews from fielding independent estimators. On the plus side, he only walked 5.8% of batters faced (below the 7.5% league average for starters) and held opponents to a meager 86.7 MPH average exit velocity. Smyly’s 12.4% swinging strike rate was an above-average mark that suggests he was somewhat unfortunate to generate his mediocre strikeout percentage, and he absolutely stifled left-handed opponents to the tune of a .191/.277/.326 line through 101 plate appearances.

Smyly doesn’t have eye-popping velocity, and his below-average ground-ball numbers have contributed to home run troubles in prior years. The longball wasn’t much of an issue this season, though, and he’s generally posted solid strikeout and walk numbers throughout his career. He’s spent time on the injured list each year since 2016, failing to reach 130 innings in any of the past six seasons. He’s not been a prototypical innings eater, but he’s pitched to a decent 3.96 ERA in 259 1/3 frames going back to the start of 2020.

The Cubs didn’t seem to aggressively market and/or find much trade interest in Smyly this summer. Despite his being a rental on a non-competitive team, there weren’t many public trade rumors leading up to the deadline. Smyly pitched to a sparkling 2.28 ERA in nine starts after the deadline, however, sending him towards free agency on the heels of a strong final couple months.

Whether that’ll be enough for the Arkansas product to find a multi-year deal heading into his age-34 season remains to be seen. Alex Cobb received a two-year, $20MM pact at the same age last winter. Cobb was coming off 98 1/3 innings of 3.76 ERA ball through 18 starts. He had a similar swinging strike rate in 2021 as Smyly did this season, but Cobb finished off more strikeouts and had an excellent 53.3% grounder rate. It seems unlikely Smyly will get quite to that level as a result, but there’s recent precedent for a multi-year deal for a pitcher coming off a broadly similar showing at the same age.

As another recent comparison point, Corey Kluber landed a one-year, $8MM guarantee (with incentives that could take the deal’s value to $13MM) after pitching 80 innings with a 3.83 ERA and a 12.5% swinging strike percentage last year. Kluber, a two-time Cy Young winner, has had a far more accomplished career than Smyly, but his 2021 production wasn’t far off Smyly’s 2022 numbers.

President of baseball operations Jed Hoyer didn’t address contract specifics, but he did broadly suggest the Cubs would have interest in retaining both Smyly and Miley. “With both guys, in the right setup, we’d love to have them back,” Hoyer told reporters this afternoon (via Lee). “They both have a really positive impact on the organization. And there’s no finish line when it comes to adding guys that can make starts in the big leagues and that can add to your culture.”

Among in-house options, the Cubs are certain to pencil Marcus Stroman and Kyle Hendricks into the Opening Day rotation. Left-hander Justin Steele pitched well enough through 24 starts to likely earn a spot as well, but the back of the rotation is mostly up for grabs. Hayden Wesneski, acquired from the Yankees in the Scott Effross deadline deal, pitched well through his first four big league starts. He’s in the mix with Keegan Thompson and journeyman Adrian Sampson for back-end roles, but there’s certainly an opportunity for Hoyer and his staff to bolster the group this offseason.

Hoyer: Cubs Will Make Qualifying Offer To Willson Contreras

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Confirming what most rightly expected to be a foregone conclusion, Cubs president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer said at today’s end-of-season press conference that the team will “definitely” make a qualifying offer to free-agent catcher Willson Contreras (Twitter link via Maddie Lee of the Chicago Sun-Times). That much was widely assumed from the moment the team surprisingly opted against trading Contreras prior to the Aug. 2 deadline.

An exact amount on this year’s qualifying offer, which is set annually at the average of the game’s 125 highest-paid players, has not yet been determined. Last year’s qualifying offer clocked in at $18.4MM, and in 2020 it was set at $18.9MM.

Any player rejecting a qualifying offer is then subject to draft-pick compensation, meaning a team choosing to sign him will be required to surrender at least one pick in the following year’s draft (in addition to potentially forfeiting resources from its international bonus pool. Teams that receive revenue sharing would forfeit their third-highest selection to sign a “qualified” free agent. Non-revenue sharing, non-luxury tax paying teams lose their second-highest pick and $500K of international bonus pool space. The six teams that paid the luxury tax this year — Mets, Dodgers, Yankees, Phillies, Red Sox, Padres — would forfeit their second- and fifth-highest picks as well as $1MM of international pool space. The Cubs, meanwhile, would receive a compensatory pick between Competitive Balance Round B and Round 3 of next summer’s draft — typically in the No. 75 overall range.

The Cubs will still have the remainder of this month and an exclusive five-day window to negotiate with Contreras following the completion of the World Series (as all teams do with their pending free agents). That said, Contreras, who’ll be 31 next May, has been vocal about his desire to remain in Chicago for several years now. No extension has materialized.

In all likelihood, Contreras will hit the open market and sign with a new club — presumably one seeking more offense behind the plate. That’s not to disparage Contreras’ glove; he boasts plus arm strength and one of the fastest pop-times in MLB (1.93 seconds, per Statcast, good for 11th out of 83 catchers in 2022). Contreras, however, generally draws average to below-average marks for framing pitches, and Baseball Prospectus dinged him slightly in 2022 for his work blocking pitches in the dirt (although that was an anomaly and he’s typically graded better than average in that regard).

Broadly speaking, Contreras is far from a liability behind the plate, particularly when it comes to controlling the running game. He doesn’t grade as well when it comes to stealing strikes for his pitchers (and for ensuring that borderline strikes are accurately called), but he’s still a quality option behind the dish — particularly when considering that few of his positional peers can match his work with the bat. Contreras hit .243/.349/.466 with 22 home runs, 23 doubles and a pair of triples in 2022.

Contreras’ 132 wRC+, indicating that he was 32% better than the league-average hitter at the plate, ranked fifth among the 70 catchers who took at least 100 plate appearances in 2022, only narrowly trailing Adley Rutschman (133) and Tyler Stephenson (134) for third on the list behind Contreras’ own brother, William, and Toronto’s Danny Jansen. Given that the average catcher was 11% worse than the league-average hitter, Contreras was about about 43% better at the plate than the average backstop, by measure of wRC+. The only catchers to produce more round-trippers than Contreras were Cal Raleigh, Will Smith and Salvador Perez.

Precisely where Contreras lands in free agency, at this point, is anyone’s guess. He won’t know how things will play out until he gauges interest around the league, but there’s no shortage of teams that could look to upgrade behind the plate. Only seven teams — Braves, Jays, Phillies, A’s, Cubs, Dodgers, Mariners — received offense that was better than that of a league-average hitter from the catcher position in their lineup this season, so even with draft compensation attached, Contreras should command a strong multi-year deal.

NL Central Notes: Helsley, Adames, Pirates, Davis

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Ryan Helsley won’t pitch in Game 2 of the Wild Card Series today, Cardinals manager Oliver Marmol told reporters (including Jeff Jones of the Belleville News-Democrat).  The decision is related to workload rather than a physical setback, as while Helsley left yesterday’s game with numbness in his right fingers.  The issue contributed to a nightmarish breakdown, as Helsley was charged with four of the six runs the Cards surrendered in the ninth inning of the 6-3 loss to the Phillies.

An MRI didn’t reveal any damage, and Helsley told Jones and other media members that he’ll try to stimulate more blood flow in his fingers via laser therapy.  The right-hander said he doesn’t have much feel (particularly on breaking pitches) as the ball is leaving his hand.  With this is mind, it’s fair to consider Helsley as a question mark for Game 3, if St. Louis is able to extend the series tonight.

Here’s some more from around the NL Central…

  • “I love it here, I feel good here, I feel comfortable here and I wish I could stay here the rest of my career,” Willy Adames told Todd Rosiak of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel and other reporters about his time with the Brewers.  Adames is arbitration-controlled through the 2024 season, and given the Brewers’ payroll limitations, it remain to be seen how many (if any) of such notables as Adames, Corbin Burnes, or Brandon Woodruff could be possible extension candidates.  “At the end of the day, [the Brewers] have to put everything together and see if we can work something out.  Hopefully we can, and we can make it happen.  But I’m always willing to hear what they have to say,” Adames said.  Possibly impacted by a high ankle sprain that sidelined him in May and early June, Adames hit .238/.298/.458 over 617 plate appearances, though that still translated to a 109 wRC+, and the shortstop also hit 31 homers.
  • Pirates manager Derek Shelton cited first base and catcher as “areas of need” in the offseason, telling Kevin Gorman of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review and other reporters that “I do think we’ll continue to look to solidify those positions….We’re just going to have to see what’s available, how we acquire guys to fill that.”  Roberto Perez may be a candidate to be re-signed, though the veteran backstop played only 21 games before undergoing hamstring surgery, and Perez was one of a whopping eight catchers who saw time behind the plate for the Pirates in 2022.  First base was also a revolving door with 10 players getting time at the cold corner, and Michael Chavis (who had the bulk of the playing time) was already outrighted off the active roster, with Chavis electing free agency.  As always, it’s hard to imagine the Pirates spending big on upgrades at either position, as the team continues to rebuild.
  • Brennen Davis was limited to 53 games in 2022 due to back surgery, and the star Cubs prospect reflected on his difficult year and somewhat unusual injury with The Chicago Sun-Times’ Maddie Lee.  Initially diagnosed as a herniated disc, Davis’ issue was actually a vascular malformation that was causing pain due to pressure on his sciatic nerve.  While it may take time for Davis to fully recover his power stroke, both the outfielder and Triple-A hitting coach Desi Wilson feel the situation might actually help Davis’ overall hitting approach.  “Having to grind for my hits. I can’t just go out there and muscle one out,” Davis said.  “I have to square baseballs up and hit them the right way, with true backspin and stuff like that, and pick pitches that I can do damage on.”  Davis has returned to action in the Arizona Fall League, and he is hopeful of making his MLB debut in 2023 — since Davis had already hit well during a brief Triple-A stint in 2021, he likely would’ve already appeared in the majors this year had he stayed healthy.

34 Players Become Free Agents

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The Wild Card round of the 2022 postseason begins today, but for the majority of teams and players, the offseason is now underway. With that will come plenty of roster formalities, including veteran players who’ve been outrighted off their respective teams’ rosters reaching minor league free agency. This week, there have been 34 such instances throughout the league, per the transactions log at MiLB.com.

None of these are a surprise, to be clear. Any player who is not on his team’s 40-man roster at season’s end but has three-plus years of Major League service time, multiple career outright assignments and/or seven-plus seasons in the minors has the right to elect free agency. Everyone in today’s group of players falls under that umbrella. The majority of the group will likely find minor league deals over the winter, although a few of the players in question could potentially find a big league deal as a bench piece or middle-inning reliever.

There will be several more waves of players of this ilk, and we’ll make note of them in bunches over the coming weeks as we await the launch of Major League free agency, when all unsigned players with at least six years of Major League service time will reach the open market. For now, here’s the first of what will likely be several waves of newly minted minor league free agents:

Catchers

Infielders

Outfielders

Pitchers

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