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Offseason In Review: Cincinnati Reds

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For the second straight winter, the Cincinnati Reds committed to building a winner the old-fashioned way: by opening their pocketbook. Last winter’s additions were good first steps, but as much as they hoped to unseat the Brewers, Cubs and Cardinals, the Yasiel Puig blockbuster aimed to lure bodies through the turnstiles. This winter’s blusterous free agent spending spree, however, had all the urgency of a team earnestly on the rise. These Reds expect to compete.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Pedro Strop, RHP: one year, $1.825MM (incentives could push total value to $3.5MM)
  • Nicholas Castellanos, OF: four years, $64MM (opt out after 2020 and 2021, $20MM club option for 2024)
  • Wade Miley, LHP: two years, $15MM ($6MM in 2020, $8MM in 2021, $10MM club option for 2022 with $1MM buyout)
  • Mike Moustakas, 2B/3B: four years, $64MM ($20MM club option for 2024)
  • Shogo Akiyama, OF: three years, $21MM ($6MM in 2020, $7MM in 2021, $8MM in 2022)
  • Total spend: $165.825MM

Trades and Claims

Options Decisions

Extensions

  • None

Notable Minor League Signings

Notable Losses

The Reds halted their run of four consecutive 90-loss seasons in 2019, albeit modestly with a 75-87 record. David Bell’s rookie campaign as the skipper had its ups and downs, but there are plenty more reasons for optimism than the record alone might suggest. Losing seasons, after all, have a tendency to compound on themselves. As the playoffs fade from view, games take on more nuanced objectives than victory alone. For the 2019 Reds, that meant getting a look at new toy Trevor Bauer, letting Aristides Aquino play superman for a time, and evaluating the roster on the whole to identify – with actionable intent – areas to target for improvement in the offseason.

So what did they find? In a nice change of pace, the Reds put together a top-10 pitching staff in 2019 – only to see their offense sink to the 25th ranked unit in the majors. It would have been temping to roll back the same group in the hopes that Aquino continue his power display, Nick Senzel develop as originally projected, and Eugenio Suarez heal enough to put together another .271/.358/.572-type season. But the Reds saw an opportunity to add offense. It’s fair to wonder if they bid against themselves, but the addition of power bats Mike Moustakas and Nicholas Castellanos deepens their lineup enough to forestall the risk of injury depletion elsewhere.

Perhaps most importantly, they filled a hole in center with Japanese import Shogo Akiyama. Akiyama would have been a good fit on a dozen clubs, but the 32-year-old brings his all-around game to Cincy. He’s a true centerfielder with on-base skills that should nicely augment a power-heavy group of sluggers. The Reds aggressively pursued Akiyama from the jump, and now the first Japanese player in franchise history will roam the grass in center on a reasonable contract. Like the Puig deal, Akiyama fits from an on-field perspective, but the business implications of expanding their potential fanbase overseas makes this deal work on multiple fronts.

At shortstop, Freddy Galvis takes over full-time from Jose Iglesias. It’s a lateral move, more-or-less, though Galvis leans a little heavier with the bat. The quality of Galvis’ glove depends on your metric of choice – 11 Outs Above Average from Statcast, 4 DRS and -1.7 UZR from Fangraphs. Let’s assume the Reds are believers. If not, are they just punting on defense? Moustakas is now Galvis’ full-time double-play partner, and he’s been a third baseman for most of his career. That said, Moose graded out okay at second in his limited time there last season (2 OAA, 0 DRS, -0.1 UZR), and it’s at least worth wondering how much body type plays a role in the skepticism over his ability to handle second full-time without a net. It’s natural to assume Senzel will play Moose’s defensive replacement (as well as his understudy), but Senzel is essentially making the same transition with a stopover in centerfield. He looks the part more than Moose, but the jury’s still out on his viability as a defensive upgrade. Regardless, he’s the closest they have to a defensive replacement on the roster.

Which brings us to the first counter-theory to the wisdom of the Reds’ offseason acquisitions. With Castellanos now entrenched in right, the Reds are betting that the offensive contributions from their newcomers will outweigh their defensive limitations. This subplot will be one of the more interesting to track if/when the season gets underway.

The other concern is this: there’s not a lot of flexibility baked into their future rosters given that Votto, Moustakas, Suarez, and Castellanos are all on the payroll for the next four seasons (at minimum). Not only do they need all four to contribute, but even if one falls off the map offensively, the presence of the other three means there’s nowhere to hide (assuming Castellanos opts in after both 2020 and 2021). That said, if Castellanos rakes as one might expect him to in Great American Ballpark, he could very well opt out, and they’d be a little better off in terms of their financial flexibility (while having reaped the benefit of his bat for a year). Positionally, even if Castellanos opts out, it doesn’t lengthen the leash much in the dirt where they’re looking at a 2023 infield of a 31-year-old Suarez at third, 34-year-old Moustakas at second, and 39-year-old Votto at first – but that’s a $54MM problem for the future.

On the other hand, roster flexibility takes many shapes. By upgrading via free agency, the Reds maintained versatility in terms of prospect depth. Nick Senzel steps into a super-utility role, but his name will make the rounds in the trade papers until he finds a regular role or proves himself indispensable. The Reds obviously see a window to compete, and they’re feeling the burn, which turns Senzel and any other prospect in the organization into currency with which they might further upgrade the roster down the line.

On the other side of the ball, the rotation was solid at the outset of the winter. The Reds staffed two of the top 25 starters in the game by measure of fWAR in 2019 (Sonny Gray, Luis Castillo). Bauer was roughed up in his first ten starts as a Red (6.39 ERA), though by FIP he was only marginally worse than his career norms (4.85 FIP). Believe it or not, Anthony DeSclafani tied with Chris Paddack and Robbie Ray for 29th in the NL by fWAR in 2019 (2.4 fWAR). Any team would feel pretty good with one of those guys slotting in as a fourth or fifth starter. Still, the Reds had room for another arm, and they got one in the form of Wade Miley on a two-year, $15MM deal. Miley imploded at the tail end of last season, but he was tipping his pitches. Assuming he’s cleaned that up, Miley solidifies their starting five into one of the more impressive units top-to-bottom in the league.

Tyler Mahle becomes the all-important sixth starter, a role akin to a backup quarterback. Whether or not he sees the field, he’s an important piece of the roster. Mahle doesn’t have a bullpen appearance on his major-league record, but the Reds are going to find out if his stuff plays up coming out of the pen.

As for the rest of the bullpen, there are some question marks. Raisel Iglesias is the foundation, and as far as lockdown artists go, he’s fine. Neither a superstar nor a liability, Iglesias enters the year as the closer for the fourth consecutive season after putting up career-best numbers with 34 saves and, more impressively, a 11.96 K/9 rate in 2019. He also sustained 12 losses and 6 blown saves. He’s a piece, for sure, but he’s far from a sure thing.

Amir Garrett evolved into one of the game’s premiere wildcard personalities in 2019, but he’s in a similar boat to Iglesias when it comes to production. He racked up 22 holds with a 3.21 ERA/4.14 FIP, good strikeout numbers (12.54 K/9), but the control was spotty (5.63 BB/9). Not to mention, he took on one entire roster in fisticuffs.

Pedro Strop adds some veteran chops to the bullpen, but he’s coming off a down year. Michael Lorenzen is an extremely handy bench/bullpen piece, but he’s not elite at any one thing. If there’s a concern for the Reds bullpen, it’s that they lack that one sure-thing, All-Star piece. Still, they have viable arms to choose from, and it’ll be on Bell to mix-and-match them to get the most out of this group.

2020 Outlook

The Reds were one of the more aggressive teams of the winter, and while their stature in the NL Central is rising, it’s not a foregone conclusion that they’ve surpassed any of the three clubs they’re chasing. Fangraphs projections peg them for 83 wins over a full 2020 season – even with the Brewers but behind the Cubbies and ahead of the Cardinals. Defense remains a concern, and the bullpen could end up needing an upgrade or two throughout the season (as many do). All that said, if/when a 2020 season is played, the Reds will be one of the more interesting teams to track. They have the depth in the lineup and the rotation to make a run. With Castellanos and Moustakas joining a perennial bottom-dweller in Cincy, they’re going to have some serious “nobody believes in us” energy to feed off. Did they do enough already to make you believe?

How would you grade the Reds’ offseason moves?  (Link for app users.)

Dick Williams On How To Get A Job In Baseball

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I posed this question to many of MLB’s top-ranking baseball operations executives.  Just like the rest of us, these people are currently sheltered in place with their families trying to get some work done in these difficult and strange times.  The following ten execs kindly took the time to answer my question: Ross Atkins of the Blue Jays, Jeff Bridich of the Rockies, Ben Cherington of the Pirates, James Click of the Astros, Mike Elias of the Orioles, Derek Falvey of the Twins, Matt Kleine of the Brewers, Dayton Moore of the Royals, Brodie Van Wagenen of the Mets, and Dick Williams of the Reds.  Their answers are below.

The best way to get your foot in the door is to figure out how you can solve a problem for me that I may not have even known I had. It makes for a much more effective cold call when you email your resume into an organization if you can articulate what you can do that the Reds are not doing today that could make us better. At least it makes us more likely to read further.

Keep abreast of the evolving trends in the industry and tailor your coursework accordingly. If you have baseball experience, focus on adding database management or machine learning or something technical. And if you are technically skilled, work on adding the baseball experience however you can.  – Dick Williams, Reds President of Baseball Operations

Reds Release Junichi Tazawa, Chris Volstad, Felix Jorge

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The Reds recently released a trio of hurlers, Chris Hilburn-Trenkle of Baseball America reports. Righties Junichi Tazawa, Chris Volstad, and Felix Jorge were all cut loose before the coronavirus-related roster freeze went into effect.

Each of these pitchers had joined the Cincinnati organization on minor-league deals. It was unlikely in each case that they’d earn a roster spot out of camp.

Tazawa, once a highly productive reliever, failed to crack the majors last year. The nine-year MLB veteran came to the Reds late last season after he was cut free from the Cubs. He had received one spring outing but obviously didn’t show enough to impress the Reds’ brass.

Volstad is another 33-year-old righty with significant MLB action under his belt. He was looking for a comeback after not appearing in the 2019 season. Volstad carries a 5.00 ERA in 772 1/3 career MLB innings.

The 26-year-old Jorge has only minimal experience at the game’s highest level. He has battled health issues over the past two campaigns. Back in 2017, the last time he completed a substantial number of innings, he worked to a 3.68 ERA in 149 upper-minors innings while also earning a brief call-up.

Transaction Retrospection: Reds Rob Marlins

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We’re approaching the four-year anniversary of an under-the-radar Reds move that has paid and could continue to pay massive dividends for the franchise. On April 1, 2016, the Reds claimed right-hander Dan Straily off waivers from the Padres. At that point, Straily was coming off an up-and-down few years divided among the Athletics, Cubs and Astros, and he spent the vast majority of the 2015 campaign as part of Houston’s Triple-A affiliate. But the Straily pickup proved to be incredibly shrewd for Cincinnati, with which he overcame unimpressive underlying metrics to post a 3.76 ERA across a career-high 191 1/3 innings in 2016.

As a team, the Reds didn’t capitalize on Straily’s presence, winning a mere 68 games and finishing with more losses than wins for the third straight year. They still haven’t registered a .500 or better season since then, though the effect of taking a low-risk flier on Straily a few years back could be felt for a significant amount of time. After all, on the heels of his solid season as a Red, they flipped him to the Marlins in January 2017 in what’s arguably one of the biggest heists in recent baseball history.

In exchange for Straily, the Reds received three players – a pair of righties, Luis Castillo and Austin Brice, as well as outfield prospect Isaiah White. Brice didn’t amount to much in Cincinnati (he actually spent last season back with the Marlins and is now a member of the Red Sox organization), while the 23-year-old White hasn’t advanced past the Single-A level yet.

On the other hand, Castillo has become a gem – a hurler the Marlins no doubt rue trading at all, let alone for someone who was an unspectacular performer in their uniform. Straily was a Marlin from 2017-18, both losing seasons for the club, and pitched to a 4.20 ERA during that 304-inning span. The Marlins wound up releasing him heading into last season, which proved to be a disastrous year in the Orioles org for Straily. He’s now with the Lotte Giants of the Korea Baseball Organization.

Meanwhile, Castillo has morphed into an electrifying major league starter. After a respectable first two seasons in Cincy, the heat-throwing Castillo truly came into his own in 2019. The 27-year-old pitched to a 3.40 ERA/3.70 FIP with 10.67 K/9 and 3.73 BB/9 across a a personal-best 190 2/3 frames. Along the way, Castillo ranked second among all qualified starters in groundball percentage (55.2) and fourth in swinging-strike percentage (15.9), placing him between Cy Young winners Justin Verlander and Jacob deGrom. And Statcast loved Castillo’s work, ranking him near the top of the league in several important categories.

The fact that Castillo has evolved into such a standout isn’t wholly surprising. Remember, when the Marlins parted with Castillo, he was regarded as one of their handful of best prospects. Baseball America posited then that Castillo, who was coming off a season of stellar production at the High-A and Double-A levels, had mid-rotation potential. Nevertheless, despite his upside, it was the second time the Marlins had agreed to part with Castillo. They previously tried to send him to the Padres in a notable July 2016 trade, but they got him back after fellow righty Colin Rea’s medicals proved problematic. Had the Castillo aspect of that deal gone through, it also would have blown up in Miami’s face.

It seems fair to say that the Marlins did not properly value Castillo while he was with the organization. The Reds are profiting from that right now. In Cincinnati, Castillo currently finds himself as an integral piece of a quality starting rotation that could help the Reds push for a playoff berth this year (if there is a season). Castillo still has another pre-arbitration campaign left and the Reds have the ability to control him through 2023, making him all the more appealing. If the Reds are going to return to prominence in the near future, there’s a good chance that the Castillo trade will have something to do with it.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Rookie Radar: NL Central

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We’ve already run through the NL West, the NL East, the AL West and the AL Central in our look at some of the up-and-coming talent that figures to step into the Major League spotlight whenever play resumes. Let’s take a run through the NL Central…

Chicago Cubs

Nico Hoerner is the most interesting name to watch. The 2018 first-rounder skyrocketed through the system to make his MLB debut late last season, and while his .282/.305/.436 output didn’t exactly set the world on fire, it capped an impressive rise for a 22-year-old in his first full pro season. The Cubs hope there’s a potential everyday option at second base here. We could also see 27-year-old Robel Garcia and his light-tower power get another audition, though his contact skills (or lack thereof) are a notable red flag.

The organization lacks high-end, MLB-ready pitching prospects, but it wasn’t that long ago that righty Adbert Alzolay was considered to be just that. He was limited by a triceps injury last year and pitched just 81 2/3 innings between the minors and a brief MLB call-up, but his strikeout numbers are intriguing. Other rotation options include Cory Abbott, Tyson Miller and Justin Steele, but no one from the bunch is regarded as a blue chipper.

In the ’pen, expect some combination of James Norwood, Dillon Maples and Duane Underwood Jr. to be called into action as injuries arise. All three are on the 40-man roster.

Cincinnati Reds

Shogo Akiyama will be one of the most interesting “rookies” to watch this season. He’s of course new to the MLB circuit but no stranger to playing professionally, having starred for Japan’s Seibu Lions over a nine-year career in Nippon Professional Baseball. A career .301/.376/.454 hitter in Japan, Akiyama hit .296 or better with at least a .385 OBP in each of his final five seasons with the Lions.

The Reds are suddenly a somewhat veteran club, so there aren’t many rookies who’ll be trusted with an Opening Day role. Well-regarded catcher Tyler Stephenson could be summoned in the event of an injury to Tucker Barnhart or Curt Casali. Shortstop Jose Garcia drew some eyes with a big spring showing but has yet to reach Double-A. He probably needs some more minor league time.

If a starter goes down, right-hander Tony Santillan has steadily climbed the ranks, although he struggled in a pitcher-friendly Double-A setting a year ago. Still, with the Reds set to potentially lose both Trevor Bauer and Anthony DeSclafani to free agency next winter, they’ll probably want to get a look at Santillan at some point.

The bullpen has a host of potential options — Vladimir Gutierrez, Reiver Sanmartin, Joel Kuhnel and Tejay Antone among them. Gutierrez has worked as a starter but struggled enormously in Triple-A, and his power fastball would seemingly play well in relief. Kuhnel has already made his MLB debut.

Milwaukee Brewers

The Brewers signed 10 Major League free agents this winter, traded for several players who’ll be on the Opening Day roster and don’t have a particularly well-regarded farm. All of that is to say — their rookie contributions might be few and far between. (To be fair, there are some semantics at play here; neither Keston Hiura nor Luis Urias is technically a rookie despite lacking a full season in the Majors. Both are highly intriguing young players.)

Jacob Nottingham might be called upon should Omar Narvaez or Manny Pina fall to injury. Outfielder Tyrone Taylor made his MLB debut last year but is buried behind a host of more experienced options. Former first-round pick Corey Ray has yet to debut but also finds himself on the wrong end of that deep outfield mix. Milwaukee picked up Mark Mathias in a small trade with the Indians and kept the versatile infielder on the 40-man roster, but it might take multiple injuries and/or a huge Triple-A showing to get to the Majors.

Righty Devin Williams leads the pack of bullpen candidates, having debuted with a 3.95 ERA in 13 2/3 frames last year. Right-handers J.P. Feyereisen and Angel Perdomo figure to emerge at some point, too, and waiver claim Eric Yardley provides a left-handed option who posted big numbers in Triple-A with the Padres last season. Rotation candidates include righty Drew Rasmussen, who had a nice year in Double-A in ’19. Trey Supak was rocked in seven Triple-A starts after a solid Double-A showing himself.

Pittsburgh Pirates

Right-hander Mitch Keller barely still qualifies a a rookie and should have a rotation spot for much of the season. Keller, long one of MLB’s premier prospects, was clobbered in his debut effort, but it’ll be interesting to see how he fares without the juiced ball and (presumably) without the prior front office/coaching staff’s emphasis on a two-seam fastball.

The Bucs have already talked extension with third base prospect Ke’Bryan Hayes — one of the game’s best defensive minor leaguers. Hayes didn’t have a great year at the plate in Triple-A in 2019, but he’ll open the season there and should break into the big leagues this year. As the club’s potential third baseman of the future, he’s a definite name to watch.

After that pairing, there’s a drop. Jason Martin and Jared Oliva might get some time in the outfield, and depending on injuries middle infielder Kevin Kramer and first baseman Will Craig are possibilities.

It feels like Nick Burdi has been a prospect forever, but the 27-year-old was healthy and opened some eyes this spring with a good showing. He’s undergone both Tommy John and thoracic outlet surgery but boasts a triple-digit heater when healthy. Blake Cederlind and Cody Ponce could see time in the ’pen, as JT Brubaker could in the rotation.

St. Louis Cardinals

Among NL Central prospects who could plausibly debut in 2020, outfielder Dylan Carlson is perhaps the most highly regarded. A consensus top 20 minor leaguer who belted 26 home runs, stole 20 bases and posted a combined OPS north of .900 between Double-A and Triple-A last year, Carlson is viewed as a potential cornerstone piece. He’ll have to stave off Tyler O’Neill, Lane Thomas and fellow rookie Justin Williams, but Carlson has the highest ceiling of the bunch.

Yadier Molina just keeps on going, so there’s little hope of Andrew Knizner seeing meaningful time unless there’s an unfortunate injury to Molina. But Knizner is touted as a potential starting catcher himself and is more or less MLB-ready. Likewise, infielder Edmundo Sosa is ready for an MLB look but lacks an obvious path given the team’s veteran infield mix.

Left-handers Genesis Cabrera and Kwang-Hyun Kim give the Cards a southpaw option both in the rotation and in the bullpen. Kim, long one of the better pitchers in the Korea Baseball Organization, had an eye-opening spring showing. Right-hander Junior Fernandez tops the list of intriguing bullpen candidates thanks to a sub-2.00 ERA in the minors last year and a heater that averaged nearly 97 mph on a brief MLB cup of coffee.

10 Players Switch Agencies

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Agent Rafa Nieves’ newly-founded Republik Sports agency will represent several players formerly represented by Nieves at Wasserman.  A video published earlier today on Republik’s official Twitter feed reveals the names of 11 players who will continue to be represented by Nieves at this new firm.

We already heard last night that Nationals outfielder Victor Robles (a Nieves client at Wasserman) was joining Republik, and the other ten names cited in the video include a mix of prominent veteran and up-and-coming stars.  The list consists of Indians infielder Jose Ramirez, Reds right-hander Luis Castillo, Pirates outfielder Gregory Polanco, Athletics right-hander Frankie Montas, Blue Jays outfielder Teoscar Hernandez, Rockies righty Antonio Senzatela, Padres outfielder Franchy Cordero, Marlins catcher Francisco Cervelli, and White Sox relievers Alex Colome and Kelvin Herrera.

As we’ve seen in several past cases of representatives changing agencies or starting new agencies, it’s quite common for players to continue using the same agent even after that rep becomes part of another company.  We saw this in 2017 with Nieves himself, as several of the aforementioned players (namely Ramirez, Robles, Herrera, Colome, Cervelli, Polanco, and Montas) all went with Nieves when the agent moved from the Beverly Hills Sports Council to Wasserman.

The 10 changes have all been updated in our Agency Database.  If you see any notable errors or omissions within the database, please let us know via e-mail: mlbtrdatabase@gmail.com.

Rays, Reds Finalize Trades For Jose De Leon, Brian O’Grady

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The Rays and Reds have worked out the final details of a pair of offseason trades between the two clubs, as per multiple reporters (including MLB.com’s Juan Toribio).  Back in November, the two clubs engaged in two trades, one that sent right-hander Jose De Leon to Cincinnati and (a week later) another that sent first baseman/outfielder Brian O’Grady to Tampa Bay.  Both trades saw the players exchanged for either cash considerations or a player to be named later, and today’s news confirms that the two teams have agreed to accept money to complete the transactions.

Cincinnati optioned De Leon to the minors two weeks ago, after the righty posted a 6.75 ERA over 2 2/3 Spring Training innings.  When and if the season gets underway, the 27-year-old De Leon will continue to work to get back to the form that made him a highly-touted top-40 prospect prior to the 2016 and 2017 seasons.  De Leon’s progress was halted, however, by Tommy John surgery in March 2018.  He returned to throw 56 minor league and four Major League innings in 2019.

O’Grady was also optioned to Triple-A just earlier today, which was expected given that the Rays already have a number of left-handed hitting first base options.  O’Grady’s ability to handle all three outfield positions could end up being his clearer path to playing time in Tampa Bay, as the Rays are forever looking for players with defensive versatility.  An eighth-round pick for the Reds in the 2014 draft, O’Grady made his MLB debut in 2019, making 48 plate appearances (and hitting .190/.292/.429) over 28 games.  The 27-year-old O’Grady has a .252/.354/.453 slash line over 2276 career PA in the minor leagues.

Rebound Candidate: Joey Votto

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Reds first baseman Joey Votto is no doubt one of the most successful position players in the history of baseball. The 36-year-old is a six-time All-Star and a onetime National League Most Valuable Player who, since he made his major league debut in 2007, has amassed 56.2 fWAR and batted .307/.421/.519 in 7,372 plate appearances. Votto ranks 27th all-time in wRC+ (151), placing him within striking distance of such luminaries as Willie Mays, Frank Robinson, Hank Aaron and Joe DiMaggio, and an even better 17th overall in on-base percentage (.421, the same number as Mickey Mantle).

If you’ve somewhat slept on Votto’s career to this point because he doesn’t play in a huge market or hasn’t been a part of frequent postseason teams, you’re probably not alone. Votto may already be a Hall of Famer, though, and with four guaranteed seasons left on the franchise-record 10-year, $225MM contract he signed with the Reds 2012, plenty of time remains for him to keep making his Cooperstown case. However, for that to happen, Votto may have to perform far better than he did last year.

The 2019 season was stunningly subpar for Votto, who was nearly a replacement-level player (0.7 fWAR) over 608 trips to the plate. Votto’s 101 wRC+ represented a 50-point drop-off from his lifetime figure and tied him for 91st among 135 qualified hitters. As always, Votto got on base more than the average player, putting up a .357 OBP, but that’s an unimpressive number compared to how he typically fares. Votto has walked in 16.0 percent of plate appearances in the majors, but he only did so at a 12.5 percent clip a year ago. At the same time, he struck out 20.2 percent of the time (up about 2.5 percent relative to his career), posted a career-worst .261 batting average and managed his second-lowest slugging percentage ever (.411).

Sometimes underwhelming production can be a symptom of bad luck. Unfortunately, that wasn’t really the case for Votto last season. If you look at his Statcast page, he was regularly near the apex of the league in one important category after another from 2015-18. But he fell off to a notable degree in all aspects in 2019. For instance, his .343 expected weighted on-base average was superior to most players, and it did outdo his .332 real wOBA, but it paled in comparison to preceding years in which he hovered around the .400 mark.

There are valid reasons to believe that we’ve seen the last of the all-world version of Votto, but the Reds can only hope that’s not the case. Not only do they owe Votto $82MM over the next few years (including a $7MM buyout for 2024), but it could be a necessity for him to bounce back if they’re going to earn their first playoff berth since 2013 this season. For his part, Votto knows he needs to rebound in 2020.

Regarding his output last year, Votto told Mark Sheldon of MLB.com: “It’s the worst season I’ve had in my career, pretty clearly. I don’t think it’s close. Everything went the wrong way.”

A lesser player wouldn’t necessary deserve the benefit of the doubt. However, considering the brilliance Votto has usually displayed, it may be unwise to bet against a renaissance.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Breakout Candidate: Robert Stephenson

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We don’t know if or when the 2020 Major League Baseball season will begin, but should it occur, the Reds will enter the campaign as one of the most interesting teams in the game. You wouldn’t normally say that about a club in the throes of a six-year playoff drought – one that hasn’t even posted a .500 season during that span – but the Reds made a spirited effort to upgrade their roster over the winter. Cincinnati’s additions figure to help the team in what could be a wide-open race in the National League Central, though it will obviously need its top performers from 2019 to continue their strong play. That includes right-handed reliever Robert Stephenson, who may be on the verge of a breakout.

Now 27 years old, Stephenson entered pro baseball as the 27th overall pick in the 2011 draft. He was a consensus top-100 prospect for a few years during his days as a minor leaguer, though he hasn’t eluded adversity by any means. It took Stephenson quite some time to find his niche in the majors, where he worked as both a starter and a reliever from 2016-18 and put up an ugly 5.47 ERA/5.50 FIP with 8.64 K/9 and 5.67 BB/9 over 133 1/3 innings. Stephenson was exclusively a reliever last season, though, and the proverbial light bulb went on.

Across 57 appearances and 64 2/3 innings, Stephenson logged a 3.76 ERA/3.63 FIP with 11.27 K/9 and 3.34 BB/9. Those make for good numbers, not otherworldly production, but a deeper dive suggests Stephenson may have more in the tank.

Among qualified relievers in 2019, Stephenson ranked third in swinging-strike percentage (18.9), trailing only the Brewers’ Josh Hader and the Rays’ Nick Anderson. Those two are rightly regarded as superb relievers. For Stephenson, a notable increase in velocity was one of the causes of his success. After averaging 93.2 mph on his fastball in 2018, the number jumped to 95.0 a year ago. However, Stephenson’s slider – not his fastball – was his go-to pitch. He threw it a little under 57 percent of the time, per FanGraphs, which graded it as the best in baseball among all relievers. The pitch was indeed an absolute nightmare to contend with for hitters, who mustered an abysmal .176 weighted on-base average/.198 xwOBA against it, according to Statcast.

Speaking of Statcast, it ranked Stephenson as a top-notch hurler in several categories last year. See for yourself…

  • Fastball velocity: 78th percentile
  • Exit velocity: 81st percentile
  • Fastball spin: 86th percentile
  • Strikeout percentage: 88th percentile
  • xwOBA: 98th percentile
  • Hard-hit percentage: 98th percentile

That’ll do. Granted, Stephenson did benefit from a .230 batting average on balls in play against in 2019, but considering his tendency to limit meaningful contact, he deserves a good amount of credit for that. If he’s going to take the next step, though, keeping the ball out of the air would probably help. Stephenson owns a career 34.9 percent groundball rate, including just 31.8 last season. That said, the home run bug didn’t bite him, which it did with so many other pitchers. Only 12.7 percent of fly balls Stephenson yielded left the yard. Beyond that, a better showing versus opposite-handed hitters would help push Stephenson into the upper tier when it comes to preventing runs. Left-handed hitters’ wOBA (.315) off him was 94 points higher than righties’ (.221). That’s not to say a .315 wOBA is particularly threatening, however, as it’s in line with the figure light hitters such as Colin Moran and Nick Ahmed recorded last season.

There is undoubtedly plenty to like with Stephenson. Even if he just matches last year’s output, Stephenson may be one of the reasons the Reds push for contention in 2020. But if Stephenson puts it all together, we could be looking at one of the premier relievers in baseball.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Eugenio Suarez To Ramp Up Rehab Next Week

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Amidst all the tragedy and misfortune being caused by COVID-19, one tiny silver lining in the baseball world is that the delayed start to the season gives injured players more time to recuperate. One such player is Reds third baseman Eugenio Suarez, who underwent right shoulder surgery in January.

Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer spoke to Reds manager David Bell about various injured Reds players and how they are handling their rehab programs in isolation. (The team shut down their spring training facility after an employee tested positive for COVID-19, meaning that the players have all gone home, or wherever it is they prefer to train.) When asked about Suarez, Bell had this to say. “Right on track, and by next week he will be resuming all his throwing, fielding and swinging. He’s a guy that we were pretty optimistic that he had a strong chance to be ready for Opening Day. Now, he’ll have a lot more time.”

Just before spring training was suspended on March 12, Suarez was set to DH in a game, with his readiness for Opening Day still in question. Now that the season has been pushed back, he should have ample opportunity to get into shape for when games resume, whenever that may be.

And while it is surely welcome news for the Reds that one of their best players is getting healthy, this could have the side effect of further crowding the battle for playing time and roster spots among some of the less-experienced members of the team. Players such as Nick Senzel, Aristides Aquino, Josh VanMeter, Phil Ervin, Kyle Farmer, Alex Blandino, Travis Jankowski and Scott Schebler could be battling for just four seats on the bench next to backup catcher Curt Casali.

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