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Reds Sign Mike Moustakas

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Dec. 5: The Reds have formally announced the agreement and confirmed the reported contractual terms. Moustakas has agreed to a four-year, $64MM deal — the largest free-agent signing in Reds franchise history.

Bobby Nightengale Jr. of the Cincinnati Enquirer breaks down the yearly details: Moustakas will earn $12MM in 2020, $14MM in 2021, $16MM in 2022 and $18MM in 2023. There’s also an unannounced club option for the 2024 season that is valued at $20MM and comes with a $4MM buyout.

Dec. 2: The Reds have agreed to a deal with free agent infielder Mike Moustakas, according to Jon Heyman of MLB Network (Twitter links). It’s a four-year, $64MM pact for the Scott Boras client, according to reports from Heyman and Jeff Passan of ESPN.com (via Twitter).

After two disappointing trips through the free agent process, it seems Moose has finally secured a long-awaited long-term agreement. His recently demonstrated ability to line up at second base was a game changer for the long-time third baseman. Moustakas now appears likely to pair up with Freddy Galvis to form a bit of an unlikely double-play combo in Cincinnati.

We predicted a five-year pact for Moustakas after the 2017 season, when he was a high-quality and still youthful third baseman. After he was forced into a pillow deal, we downgraded expectations to a two-year deal entering the 2018-19 winter. Moustakas again settled for a single-season guarantee from the Brewers. On the heels of another solid, but hardly otherworldly season, we doubled down on that two-year guess … only to see Moustakas absolutely smash expectations.

Having seen him up close over the past two seasons, the Reds clearly believe that Moustakas is not only capable of holding down the fort at second base, but doing so well and for some years to come. The corners are already locked up for the foreseeable future with Joey Votto and Eugenio Suarez.

And the Cincinnati front office is also going all-in on the bat of Moustakas. He has now twice exceeded thirty home runs and has topped the .200 mark in isolated power in each of the past four campaigns. The power is real, but so are the on-base struggles. Moustakas’s .329 OBP from 2019 was a career high-water mark but barely topped the league average.

Over the course of his career, Moustakas has reached base at a marginal .310 clip. Can he sustain and even extend his relatively productive 2019 in the OBP arena? Moustakas did carry a personal-best 9.1% walk rate in 2019, though his swinging-strike rate also crept up to a new high-water mark (11.0%). He has never hit much for average, so continued commitment to drawing free passes may be the ticket.

Even at his best, Moustakas has never rated as a true star. He has topped 2.0 fWAR in each of the past three campaigns but hasn’t gone past 3.0 since 2015. While bWAR put him at 3.2 wins above replacement in 2019, it took a dimmer view of his prior three seasons. And at this point, youth isn’t really on Moose’s side. But the Reds obviously feel that Moustakas will continue to be a steady producer and were willing to pay for his consistency. It stands to reason that other teams did as well, since the bidding pushed so far north.

Pitching Market Chatter: Wheeler, Cole, Kluber, Jays

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There has been some early action on the starting pitching market. Jake Odorizzi accepted a qualifying offer from the Twins, filling one of their openings on a limited commitment. The Cardinals brought back Adam Wainwright. Chase Anderson went to the Blue Jays in a trade. The Rangers made Kyle Gibson their annual surprise three-year contract recipient. Those moves helped set the stage for some of the biggest free agents, who are now engaged with multiple suitors. We’ve recently covered the latest on hot commodity Zack Wheeler and high-end veteran Stephen Strasburg, who has held meetings with the Dodgers and Yankees.

Here’s more from other areas of the market:

  • Speaking of Wheeler, it seems that a deal is indeed on the cusp of coming together. Ken Rosenthal said as much in an appearance on MLB Network (Twitter link), noting that we could even see an agreement struck today. Rosenthal believes it’s a three-team race between the Phillies, White Sox, and Reds, though he cautions that the bidding isn’t fully limited to those organizations. We’ll be keeping a close watch on Wheeler.
  • The Yankees are clearly a legitimate player for top free agent Gerrit Cole, though agent Scott Boras is certain to demand that the New York powerhouse pay a premium to woo the West Coast native. Yesterday’s initial sit-down went well, per Jon Heyman of MLB Network (via Twitter), though it’s hard to divine much of real import given that the sides didn’t talk cold hard cash. Sources tell Heyman that “the dollars will be there,” which seems to be an indication that the Yankees are fully prepared to make Cole the richest pitcher ever to play the game. But whether the club will cast its valuations aside in a full-blown bidding war, should one break out, remains to be seen.
  • We’ve heard a lot of chatter surrounding a certain Indians star shortstop, but relatively little on the club’s former (and future?) ace starter. That may not reflect the real state of play within and among front offices. ESPN.com’s Jeff Passan cites multiple executives for the proposition that the Cleveland organization is working harder on structuring deals for Corey Kluber than in sorting out a blockbuster involving Francisco Lindor. As we explained in ranking Kluber 17th among the winter’s trade candidates, it’s all but impossible to know what to expect from the former Cy Young winner. Kluber ought to be well rested after a freak arm fracture ruined his 2019 season, but he had struggled in early action before the injury. He’s not cheap — $17.5MM in 2020 and $18MM via club option for one more year — but would be an outright steal at those rates if he’s anything like his usual self upon his return.
  • The Blue Jays are “as aggressive as any team” in pursuit of open-market starters, per MLB.com’s Jon Morosi (via Twitter). It’s anyone’s guess just how to interpret that characterization. The Toronto faithful are by now a bit jaded at such assurances, having grown frustrated with a string of losing seasons and minimal investment in the MLB roster. Perhaps this is all part of the setup for explaining that the club just couldn’t quite get a deal done despite its best efforts. Then again, there’s plenty of reason to think the Jays can and should be prepared to re-enter the fray in a big way. The club has cleaned up its future balance sheets and graduated many of its best prospects to the majors. Perhaps the Toronto front office will end up making significant rotation improvements over the course of the winter.

Phillies Actively Pursuing Zack Wheeler

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There’s momentum in the market for righty Zack Wheeler, who is reportedly already sitting on a nine-figure offer. The Phillies are now perhaps the strongest pursuer of the 29-year-old, Buster Olney of ESPN.com reports.

With the Philadelphia organization firmly entering the picture, Wheeler is sitting in an enviable position. There are a host of other teams still in the picture. Olney cites the Reds, White Sox, and Rangers as remaining involved. We’ve previously heard of intense interest from the Twins, who were reportedly still in the picture as of yesterday.

In another report this morning, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (via Twitter) suggests that the Reds and White Sox are the other teams most clearly in the mix with the Phillies. But it’s still a fluid bidding situation, so far as is known publicly. Indeed, Rosenthal adds that the Angels “have shown real interest,” though their status at the moment isn’t clear.

This could be building into a perfect storm for Wheeler, whose big arm and relative youth hold obvious appeal. It seems teams have come to terms with his history of arm issues and are banking on a two-year track record of durability. In our ranking of the top 50 free agents, we predicted widespread interest to drive Wheeler to a five-year, $100MM deal with the Phillies. It now seems he will top that guarantee; Olney even floats the possibility that a team will end up offering a sixth year to land the in-demand hurler.

MLBTR Poll: Grading The Mike Moustakas Signing

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The Reds are just a couple months removed from wrapping up a 75-win campaign, their sixth straight sub-.500 showing and sixth in a row without a playoff berth. President of baseball operations Dick Williams made it clear entering the offseason that he had seen enough. Williams vowed that the Reds would be players on the open market, saying at the beginning of October the club would “be aggressive in trying to get some guys in free agency.” However, as the saying goes, actions speak louder than words. Two months later, it’s clear Williams wasn’t simply telling disgruntled Reds fans what they wanted to hear.

The Williams-led Reds made an enormous and shocking splash in free agency on Monday, adding infielder Mike Moustakas on a four-year, $64MM guarantee. It was a stunning move for multiple reasons, including the price tag and that Moustakas’ primary position – third base – is already spoken for in Cincinnati. He’s not going to steal the job from incumbent Eugenio Suarez, who’s fresh off a 49-home run season, nor is he a threat to swipe first from franchise legend Joey Votto. That presumably leaves second base for Moustakas. The keystone was an area of need for the Reds prior to the Moustakas signing, and the 31-year-old showed last season he was capable of handling himself there as a member of the division-rival Brewers. Now that Moustakas is aboard, it seems likely youngster Nick Senzel will remain their center fielder instead of shifting to the keystone. So, it’s almost like two decisions in one for the Reds.

As for the cost, it’s a whopper of a deal from both sides’ perspective, especially considering MLBTR was among the outlets that projected a payday in the $20MM range for Moustakas at the start of free agency. That said, one could argue it’s a market correction after back-to-back difficult offseasons for Moustakas. “Difficult” is relative in this case, of course, as the Scott Boras client did rack up contracts worth a guaranteed $16.5MM in that time frame. However, despite a lengthy track record of solid production, Moustakas was unable to score a contract of more than one year in either case. Now, for a truckload of cash, the Reds are getting a player with five seasons of at least 2.0 fWAR and another five of 20-plus home runs on his resume. Moustakas smashed 35 HRs during a homer-heavy league year in 2019, when he slashed .254/.329/.516 and put up 2.8 fWAR across 584 plate appearances.

With Moose in the mix, the majority of Cincy’s infield looks settled. However, the team’s position player cast arguably still has needs at shortstop, catcher and in the outfield. Whether they’ll be as aggressive in trying to upgrade those spots remains to be seen in the wake of the pact they doled out for Moustakas. For now, though, what do you think of this big-time Cincy splash?

(Poll link for app users)

Grade the Moustakas signing
B 41.20% (9,331 votes)
C 26.02% (5,892 votes)
A 20.18% (4,571 votes)
D 9.37% (2,122 votes)
F 3.23% (731 votes)
Total Votes: 22,647

Zack Wheeler Bidding Already In Nine Figures

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3:37pm: The White Sox are “willing” to push beyond the five-year, $100MM mark in order to sign Wheeler, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reports. Whether they’ve actually made such an offer isn’t clear.

11:57am: It seems the Wheeler auction could be building to a crescendo. It’s possible and “maybe even probable” that he’ll sign before the Winter Meetings open next week, per Jon Heyman of MLB Network (via Twitter).

9:35am: Free agent righty Zack Wheeler is going to break the $100MM barrier with his next contract, according to Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (subscription link). Per the report, Wheeler already has at least one offer in hand of at least $100MM.

MLBTR foresaw intense bidding for Wheeler entering the offseason, when we ranked him fourth in earning power among all free agents. It seems our prediction of five years and $100MM — aggressive at the time — will actually end up just on the light side. The question remains how far north of that figure Wheeler will roll.

Rosenthal lists the White Sox, Twins, Reds, Rangers and Blue Jays as teams with ongoing interest in Wheeler. That’s a non-exclusive list; quite a few other clubs have also been tied to the 29-year-old. The involvement of such organizations reflects the reason we were so bullish on Wheeler’s market entering the winter. Simply put, he checks a lot of boxes for a lot of teams.

It’ll cost draft compensation to sign Wheeler, but that’s not an overwhelming deterrent for a still-youthful player who possesses top-of-the-rotation stuff. Wheeler has been healthy for two seasons while maintaining a big heater and compelling peripherals. He threw 195 1/3 innings in 2019, which is quite a sum in this day and age. That’s a good sign for a pitcher who battled through health problems before a bounceback ’18 campaign. And it seems teams are taking the view that his 2019 ERA (3.96) doesn’t fully reflect his true talent level.

So how much is too much for a pitcher with Wheeler’s history of arm issues and less-than-perfect platform season? That’s what we may soon find out. But in thinking through his value, it’s worth recalling the broader market situation.

In terms of supply, Wheeler occupies an interesting position. He’s clearly not to the level of Gerrit Cole and Stephen Strasburg, but arguably possesses a much loftier ceiling — with a combination of premium stuff and relative youth — than any of the other available starters. Teams not interested in approaching or exceeding the $200MM level of spending have understandably zeroed in on Wheeler as a potential budget ace. And there’s no shortage of organizations with conceivable interest. Multiple big-spending contenders are chasing top arms along with the teams listed above.

Reds Non-Tender Kevin Gausman

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The Reds have non-tendered Kevin Gausman, reports Mark Sheldon of MLB.com (via Twtter). The righty’s $10.6MM arbitration projection apparently proved too lofty.

Cincinnati grabbed Gausman off waivers from Atlanta in August and let him work out of the bullpen down the stretch. While he did some solid work for the Reds, he never seemed especially likely to return at that price. Gausman struggled mightily to keep runs off the board as a starter with the Braves over the season’s first four months.

That said, it wouldn’t be surprising to see the veteran draw strong interest as a free agent. He’ll presumably attract teams in need of starting and relief depth. He is coming off a career-best strikeout rate (25.3%), although some of that was a reflection of his quality work in shorter stints.

With five-plus years of service, Gausman would’ve been ticketed for free agency at the end of next season. He’ll hit the open market a year earlier than expected, entering his age-29 season.

Players Avoiding Arbitration Prior To 2019 Non-Tender Deadline

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With tonight’s 8pm ET deadline to tender contracts to arbitration-eligible players looming, there’ll be several players who agree to one-year contracts for the 2020 season today. It’s common for the day of the non-tender deadline to be a big one for arbitration agreements, though it’s also worth noting that many of the players who agree to terms today will do so at a rate that’s lower than the salary figures projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz.

Broadly speaking, players who agree to terms on a salary this far in advance tend to be those who were at risk of being non-tendered, and their teams are able to use tonight’s deadline as leverage in bringing about a deal that saves them a bit of cash. A look at some of the early instances of players agreeing to terms reveals this to be true already; Mike Zunino ($4.5MM salary vs. $4.9MM projection), Wilmer Difo ($1MM salary vs. $1.2MM projection) and Scott Alexander ($875K salary vs. $1MM projection) have all agreed to lesser terms rather than risk being cast out into the free-agent market.

We’ll keep track of today’s players who avoid arbitration in this post and update throughout the day…

  • The Padres have a deal for $1.5MM with infielder Greg Garcia, Bob Nightengale of USA Today tweets. That’s a shade under his $1.7MM projection for the 30-year-old.
  • Infielder Orlando Arcia has avoided arbitration with the Brewers, per Bob Nightengale of USA Today (via Twitter). Though he’s set to lose some playing time, it seems Arcia will be expected to retain a notable role. He’s considered a talented defender at short and was long expected to come around with the bat, but it hasn’t happened yet.
  • Dodgers catcher Austin Barnes is in agreement on a $1.1MM deal, per Robert Murray (Twitter link). It’s a guaranteed deal, which isn’t standard for arbitration pacts. Barnes had projected at $1.3MM on the heels of a disappointing season. It seems he’ll be asked to function as the club’s second backstop in 2020.

Earlier Moves

  • The Rangers have a deal in place with right-hander Nick Goody, the club announced. He’ll earn $915K, according to MLB.com’s TR Sullivan (via Twitter). Goody projected to earn $1.1MM, so he’s taking a discount on that mark with his new club.
  • Just-acquired righty Jharel Cotton has agreed to a $640K deal with the Cubs, Rosenthal tweets. Cotton had projected at $800K but he’s surely focused first and foremost on getting a significant MLB opportunity. He didn’t quite make it back to the majors in 2019 after a long injury layoff but figures to represent a swingman option for the Chicago club in 2020.
  • Outfielder Alex Dickerson and lefty Wandy Peralta are in agreement with the Giants, per Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (Twitter links). Dickerson settled for $925K, which is well under his $1.2MM projected earning power. The 29-year-old has had trouble staying healthy but usually hits when he is on the field. He rewarded the San Francisco organization for taking a shot on him last year by turning in a .290/.351/.529 batting line in 171 plate appearances. As for Peralta, he lands right at his projected value with a $805K salary. The 28-year-old was claimed off waivers late in the 2019 season.
  • The White Sox and James McCann avoided arbitration with a one-year deal worth $5.4MM, tweets ESPN’s Jeff Passan. McCann’s deal checks in a half million dollars north of his $4.9MM projection. Chicago’s addition of Yasmani Grandal has likely relegated McCann to backup duties, so he’ll be a rather expensive second catcher for the South Siders. A free agent next winter, McCann hit .273/.328/.460 with a career-high 18 home runs, but his bat went dormant in the season’s final few months and his .359 BABIP seems particularly ripe for regression.
  • The Athletics avoided arbitration with left-handed reliever T.J. McFarland by agreeing to a one-year contract worth $1.8MM, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale tweets. That salary effectively puts McFarland in line for the same salary he’d have received had he had his $1.85MM club option exercised by the Diamondbacks. Arizona, however, bought him out for $50K and then ran him through waivers, at which point the A’s claimed him. The 30-year-old posted a 4.82 ERA with a middling 5.6 K/9 and 3.2 BB/9 in 56 2/3 innings this past season, but he’s a ground-ball behemoth (61.1 percent). He’ll be a free agent next winter and had been projected at $2.1MM.
  • Infielder Ehire Adrianza and the Twins agreed on a $1.6MM salary for the upcoming season, Nightengale tweets. The versatile utilityman hit .272/.349/.416 in 236 plate appearances while appearing at all four infield spots and both outfield corners. Adrianza, a free agent next winter, was projected at $1.9MM.
  • Outfielder Travis Jankowski agreed to a rare arbitration pay cut with the Reds, Bobby Nightengale Jr. of the Cincinnati Enquirer tweets. After earning $1.165MM in 2019, he’ll be owed $1.05MM in 2020 if he makes the club. A fractured wrist cost him much of the season in 2019, and he was just 4-for-22 when healthy and in the Majors. Jankowski did have a nice season in Triple-A, though (.393 OBP in 39 games), and the Reds gave up some international funds to acquire him, which seemingly indicated that they planned to tender him a contract. He was projected to earn $1.2MM.

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Reds To Non-Tender Jose Peraza

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The Reds have elected not to tender a contract to infielder Jose Peraza, per Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (via Twitter). MLBTR had projected him to earn $3.6MM in his first season of arbitration eligibility.

This is a tough pill for the Reds to swallow, as it had seemed entering the 2019 season that Peraza could turn into a steady regular. But he fell far shy of expectations in the just-completed campaign.

There’s no questioning the depth of Peraza’s struggles. He stumbled to a .239/.285/.346 batting line in 403 plate appearances. He didn’t even grade as a positive overall baserunner despite his obvious talent in that regard. Though Peraza continued to show well with the glove, it wasn’t enough to convince the Reds to keep the faith entering a must-win season.

In spite of the difficulties, it’s still a bit of a surprise to see Peraza cut loose at 25 years of age and with three seasons of arbitration control remaining. He may not quite have turned into the player they hoped he would when they acquired him back in 2015, but Peraza was a 2.6 fWAR performer in 2018 and has at times shown an ability to produce at a league-average rate with the bat despite a minimal walk rate.

With Peraza out of the mix at shortstop, the Reds depth chart is presently topped by Freddy Galvis. The club picked up his option at $5.5MM. Whether he’ll end up serving as a utility piece or semi-regular at short remains to be seen.

Rangers Claim Jimmy Herget, Designate Jeffrey Springs

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The Rangers announced Monday that they’ve claimed right-hander Jimmy Herget off waivers from the Reds and designated left-hander Jeffrey Springs in a corresponding move. The Rangers’ 40-man roster remains full.

Herget turned 26 late last season after receiving his first MLB look. He didn’t produce a single strikeout in 6 1/3 innings in the majors, but ran up 10.4 K/9 over his 58 2/3 Triple-A innings. The funky righty posted a 2.91 ERA at the highest level of the minors but has largely been stalled there for the past three seasons.

The Texas org obviously preferred Herget’s outlook to that of Springs, who turned in good results in 2018 but couldn’t follow that up last year. In his 32 1/3 innings in the majors, Springs scuffled to a 6.40 ERA with 8.9 K/9 and 6.4 BB/9.

Rays Acquire Brian O’Grady, Designate Jesus Aguilar For Assignment

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The Rays have acquired outfielder/first baseman Brian O’Grady from the Reds, per club announcements. The Cincinnati organization will receive a player to be named and cash in the swap.

First baseman Jesus Aguilar was designated for assignment to create roster space. He had been projected to earn $2.5MM in arbitration.

O’Grady is a left-handed hitter who earned his first shot at the majors last year. He scuffled in limited opportunities but otherwise showed well in 2019. Over 489 Triple-A plate appearances, O’Grady slashed .280/.359/.550 with 28 home runs. The 27-year-old is optionable and affordable, making him a potential depth piece for Tampa Bay.

Aguilar had simply not performed as hoped when he was picked up in the middle of the 2019 season. He turned in a .261/.336/.424 batting line in 107 plate appearances — not enough to motivate the club to commit to his salary and continue to tie up a roster spot. Aguilar’s big 2018 season makes him an intriguing buy-low target for clubs interested in first base/DH help.

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