Reds Rumors

Reds Reach Agreement With Shogo Akiyama

By Steve Adams | December 30, 2019 at 1:39pm CDT

1:39pm: The Reds and Akiyama are in agreement on a three-year contract, Joel Sherman of the New York Post tweets.

1:03pm: The Reds are “working hard” to finalize an agreement with free-agent center fielder Shogo Akiyama, tweets MLB Network’s Jon Heyman, who adds that bidding for the longtime Seibu Lions star now exceeds three years and $20MM. Akiyama is represented by Excel Sports Management’s Casey Close.

A report from Nikkan Sports in Japan on Monday indicated that the two sides were in agreement on a deal, but both Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer and Mark Sheldon of MLB.com report that an agreement is not yet in place (Twitter links). Nikkan Sports reported that Akiyama had agreed to a three-year deal worth more than $15MM in total, but Sheldon, like Heyman, hears that bidding on the center fielder has exceeds that $15MM barometer by a “decent margin.”

Akiyama has topped 20 homers in each of the past three seasons and swiped 15-plus bags in each of the past five years. In all, since the 2015 season, he’s a .320/.398/.497 hitter. He’ll turn 32 next April, but his age doesn’t look to have been much of a hindrance in his market. He’s drawn interest from the Cubs, Diamondbacks and Padres, among others, and the fact that this winter’s free-agent market is largely devoid of quality center field options only aids his cause.

If Akiyama and the Reds do indeed finalize an agreement, he’ll be in line for regular reps and possibly push young Nick Senzel into a multi-position role, where he could log time in the infield and across the outfield. The Reds could also simply deploy Akiyama in a corner with Senzel in center, although their outfield mix also features Jesse Winker, Aristides Aquino, Scott Schebler, Phil Ervin and offseason pickups Travis Jankowski and Nick Martini.

Of that bunch, Winker and Aquino currently top the depth chart and are the favorites for regular corner work in 2020, but the entire unit carries some degree of uncertainty. Akiyama would further add to that uncertainty, but he’d also bring a good bit of upside that some of the incumbent options can’t match.

Outfield Market Notes: Akiyama, Puig, Dickerson

By TC Zencka | December 28, 2019 at 11:33am CDT

Potential Japanese import Shogo Akiyama, 31, remains a popular target on the free agent market. Yesterday’s reports affirmed the Reds and Padres atop the list of pursuers. The long-time Seibu Lions centerfielder is said to have 3-year offers on the table, per MLB Network Insider Jon Heyman (via Twitter). The Cubs and Diamondbacks have also consistently been linked to the left-handed hitter, while the Rays and Blue Jays have had reported interest at various times during the offseason.

The 45th-ranked free agent on our Top 50 Free Agents list, Akiyama is one of the only true centerfield options on the open market, and he carries enough bat to find a place near the top of a batting order. His on-base ability in particular is drawing teams to his door, per Heyman. He carries a career .301/.376/.454 line from 9 seasons in the NPB, with OBPs floating right around .400 over the past five seasons.

MLBTR’s Dylan A. Chase asked readers early in the offseason to predict which NPB import would collect the largest guarantee. Akiyama landed firmly between Yoshitomo Tsutsugo and Shun Yamaguchi. We now know Tsutsugo claimed $12MM from the Rays while Yamaguchi got $6.35MM from the Blue Jays. Both deals are for two seasons. So while it’s reasonable to expect Akiyama to come on a fairly reasonable contract, the dearth of centerfield options could drive the bidding beyond either deal’s total guarantee.

Elsewhere among outfielders, the Marlins remain interested in Yasiel Puig. The volatile Cuban outfielder would certainly entertain Floridians, even if the .267/.327/.458 line he put up for the Reds and Indians in 2019 isn’t necessarily awe-inspiring. He did technically produce at an above-average rate with a 101 wRC+.

The Marlins, however, seem to be leaning towards Corey Dickerson at the moment, per FNTSY Sports Radio’s Craig Mish (via Twitter). The Fish have outfield prospects knocking on the door (namely, Monte Harrison and Jesus Sanchez), as well as intriguing talent a little further away (JJ Bleday, Victor Victor Mesa, Kameron Misner) – but they continue to explore adding offensive talent for the near-term.

Reds, Padres Reportedly Leading Shogo Akiyama Bidding

By Jeff Todd | December 27, 2019 at 7:42pm CDT

DECEMBER 27, 7:42pm: Aside from the Reds and Padres, it’s “thought” that the Diamondbacks, Cubs and maybe even the Blue Jays still have interest in Akiyama, Jon Heyman of MLB Network tweets.

6:55pm: The bidding is largely down to the Reds and Padres, according to a Sports Hochi report (Japanese language link; h/t Patrick Newman of NPB Tracker, on Twitter). It seems the expectation is that he’ll reach a decision before the new year.

5:50am: The Reds have a multi-year offer to Akiyama on the table and are the likeliest landing spot for the 31-year-old, per a Friday report from Nikkan Sports (Japanese language link).

DECEMBER 26: When he declared his intentions to come to the majors, Japanese center fielder Shogo Akiyama entered an interesting place on this winter’s market. With so few viable center fielders available, and no shortage of demand, he offered an intriguing new possibility.

Interest has been fairly robust from the outset for the long-time Seibu Lions standout. And the chatter — at least, in Japanese outlets — has increased of late after Yahoo Japan reported (Japanese language link) that the left-handed-hitting 31-year-old would reach a decision in late December. If Akiyama has settled on a contract, it’s not yet known. But there are a few new hints to chew on. And other recent developments have had an impact on his market.

Yahoo Japan (Japanese language link) cites the Padres as a leading new contender. While it’s tough to assess the merits of those reports, they’re each rather notable for the impact on the market at large. The Pads only just added a somewhat similar player in Trent Grisham; it’d seem a move on Akiyama might portend a trade of another left-handed-hitting outfielder. Plus, adding salary would increase the team’s desire to move some of the money owed Wil Myers.

Then again, Nikkan Sports (Japanese language link) labels the Reds the likeliest landing spot for Akiyama, citing the organization’s persistent interest. The possibilities are all the more interesting with regard to the Reds, who have seemingly been preparing to utilize Nick Senzel in center but could take any number of different directions upon adding Akiyama. There certainly could be implications for the club’s interest in right-handed-hitting corner bats such as Nicholas Castellanos and Marcell Ozuna. With six left-handed-hitting outfielders on the 40-man, the Cincinnati club would at minimum have to do some roster maintenance.

The Cubs and Diamondbacks have long been known to have interest. But it’s worth wondering to what extent either club is a legitimate possibility at this stage. The Cubs are reportedly sifting through pocket change and don’t appear to have any salary-freeing swaps on the immediate horizon. And the Arizona organization just added Kole Calhoun, which gives the team two well-compensated, left-handed-hitting corner outfielders around switch-hitting center fielder Ketel Marte (although he could shift back to second base if Akiyama lands in Arizona).

Another team long known to have interest, the Rays, also made a significant new left-handed-hitting addition to its outfield mix. Fellow Japanese standout Yoshitomo Tsutsugo secured a relatively surprising two-year, $12MM deal (plus a $2.4MM release fee) with the Tampa Bay organization. To what extent the Rays are involved at the moment isn’t entirely clear. But the team reportedly remains interested in Akiyama, even with multiple other left-handed-hitting options — including regular center fielder Kevin Kiermaier — still on hand.

While there’s still quite a lot of uncertainty, the foregoing discussion does indicate the layers of intrigue at play. In all likelihood, an Akiyama signing will be preceded by and/or will trigger some potentially notable corresponding transactions.

Nick Senzel Changes Agencies

By Anthony Franco | December 22, 2019 at 11:32am CDT

Promising Reds’ outfielder Nick Senzel has hired the Scott Boras Corporation as representation, tweets Jon Heyman of MLB Network. The 24-year-old remains two seasons from arbitration eligibility.

The former University of Tennessee star and second overall pick made his MLB debut in 2019. He tallied 404 unremarkable plate appearances (.256/.315/.427), although he did expand his defensive profile. A third baseman in Knoxville, Senzel added the keystone to his resume in the minors. Last season, he moved to center field, where he logged all 92 of his MLB starts. He figures to stick in center now that the Reds have inked Mike Moustakas to join Eugenio Suárez on the roster.

Senzel hasn’t wowed to the extent some may have hoped, but he remains a key long-term asset for the Cincinnati organization. A former consensus top ten prospect, he comes with six seasons of team control. He’ll first need to bounce back from season-ending shoulder surgery; at last check, the Reds were “optimistic” he’d be a full go in 2020.

Senzel’s change in representation will be reflected in MLBTR’s Agency Database, which contains agent info on thousands of Major League and Minor League players. If you see any errors or omissions within, please let us know: mlbtrdatabase@gmail.com.

Central Notes: Reds, Miley, Cubs, Twins, Clippard

By TC Zencka | December 21, 2019 at 9:37am CDT

Wade Miley stood helplessly by as his Astros’ tenure crumbled behind a disastrous September. A rocky final month boiled over into his lone ALDS appearance, forcing Miley off the roster for the ALCS and World Series. The team supposed Miley was relying too much on his cutter and steering his changeup to the point of altering the arm action that makes the pitch effective. After the year was out, however, a former teammate reached out to alert Miley that glove position was tipping his pitches, per The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal. That’s cold comfort for Astros’ fans, but those in Cincinnati can officially raise their expectations for the two-year, $15MM free agent signing. If the Miley that shows up to Great American Ballpark more closely resembles the guy who put up a 3.06 ERA through 156 innings prior to September (and if the offense rebounds), the Reds might finally live up to the dependable, high-quality performance the chamber of commerce had in mind when adopting the the nickname of the Blue Chip City.

As much credit as Theo Epstein deserves for finally turning the Cubs into a winner, the blame falls at his feet as well for the current state of affairs. Something has clearly gone awry when the Cubs are so short of cash that they can’t even outbid the Brewers for low-cost free agents like lefty Alex Claudio, who signed for $1.75MM. The problem isn’t that the Cubs are cheap (they had the third-highest payroll last season), but Epstein hasn’t made the best use of their funds, per The Athletic’s Sahadev Sharma. With one of the highest budgets in baseball, Epstein ought to have enough resources to maintain a winner in Chicago – instead he’s bargain hunting for the second consecutive offseason.
The Twins finally made good on a decade-long courtship of reliever Tyler Clippard when they signed him to a one-year, $2.75MM deal, per The Athletic’s Aaron Gleeman. He’s long been successful in this league, thanks largely to a north-south approach that’s come into fashion in recent seasons: a high-spin rising fastball set up by a splitter and changeup that move the opposite direction. The arsenal induces soft, airborne contact, especially against lefties. Besides being a reverse splits guy, he is also the rare pitcher who can be relied upon to consistently produce below-average batting average on balls in play. His career .239 BABIP is second-lowest all-time, Gleeman notes, and he’s only once let that number rise above .300, the average mark league-wide.

NL Notes: Donaldson, Braves, Cubs, Bryant, Pirates, Reds

By Connor Byrne | December 20, 2019 at 11:45pm CDT

Third baseman Josh Donaldson, the No. 1 free agent left on the board, continues to contemplate his future. The Nationals, Twins, Dodgers and Braves (with whom he thrived in 2019) look like the front-runners for his services. All things being equal, though, it appears Donaldson would prefer to stay in Atlanta. The “belief” is Donaldson’s camp has promised the Braves he’ll let them make a final offer before he signs anywhere else, David O’Brien of The Athletic reports (subscription link). The problem, as O’Brien notes, is that the Braves may not want to give Donaldson, 34, four guaranteed years. Meanwhile, Washington and Minnesota are reportedly open to doing so.

Reds Sign David Carpenter

By Jeff Todd | December 20, 2019 at 5:58pm CDT

The Reds have agreed to a deal with veteran reliever David Carpenter, according to the social media accounts of Cincinnati pitching coordinator Kyle Boddy and Carpenter himself. It’s a minors deal with an invite to MLB camp.

Carpenter didn’t exactly regain his former glory last year with the Rangers. But he did make it up for four MLB appearances — his first since way back in 2015. And Carpenter spun 38 2/3 innings of 1.63 ERA ball with 9.8 K/9 and 3.0 BB/9 at Triple-A.

It seems the righty has been back at work at the Boddy-founded Driveline Baseball this winter. (Here’s a video link on Twitter if you’d like to look for yourself.) We’ll see whether he can crack the Reds roster in camp, but moving back towards his once-customary 96 mph heat would surely help.

Reds Reportedly Exploring Francisco Lindor Trade Scenarios

By Jeff Todd | December 19, 2019 at 7:23am CDT

The Reds have “engage[d]” with the Indians in talks regarding shortstop Francisco Lindor, according to MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand (via Twitter). There’s no indication to this point that the discussions are anything but exploratory in nature.

We’ve heard ongoing chatter regarding the Cleveland superstar. Lindor, who recently turned 26, is entering his second-to-last season of arbitration control and projects to earn $16.7MM. Having recently shipped out high-dollar hurlers Trevor Bauer (over the summer, to Cincinnati) and Corey Kluber (more recently, to the Rangers), the Indians are seemingly willing to listen on Lindor. But indication is that the club isn’t especially anxious to deal him.

While it’s still unclear whether there’s any significant likelihood of a swap coming together, it’s interesting to hear of ongoing talks from multiple quarters. The Padres and Dodgers are among the other organizations tied recently to Lindor, though in all cases we’ve yet to hear of anything approaching a concerted effort to pry loose the star shortstop.

No doubt it’d take a massive array of talent to coax the Indians into moving Lindor. Though it’s now quite difficult to imagine he will be retained for the long haul with an extension, he’s also still a reasonably priced young star on a team that is still in an open competitive window. The Indians can plausibly hope to cover the outgoing pitching from within, though they undoubtedly sacrificed quite a lot of near-term upside in the form of Bauer and Kluber. But there’s really no replacing Lindor.

Whether there’s a path to a deal remains to be seen, but the involvement of the Reds could help spur movement on the market. It is especially notable that the Cincinnati organization has recently hammered out complicated, multi-player deals with the Indians — as well as the Padres and the Dodgers, who could consider moving Corey Seager as part of or in a follow-up to a Lindor acquisition. Hypothetical possibilities abound. At minimum, the report makes clear that the Reds are still scanning the market in search of major improvements.

Reds Sign Wade Miley

By Connor Byrne | December 18, 2019 at 1:20pm CDT

An already impressive Reds rotation became deeper Wednesday, as the team announced the signing of left-hander Wade Miley to a two-year contract worth a guaranteed $15MM. (The Reds, unlike most clubs, revealed the basic contractual terms themselves.) The pact also contains a club option for the 2022 season that is reported to be worth $10MM and comes with a $1MM buyout. Miley, a client of O’Connell Sports Management, will earn $6MM in 2020 and $8MM in 2021, and he can reportedly take home another $500K annually via an incentives package. The contract nearly matches the two-year, $16MM prediction MLBTR made for Miley at the outset of free agency.

Miley, 33, gives the Reds a southpaw option to add to a rotation that already included a highly talented quartet of right-handers: Luis Castillo, Sonny Gray, Trevor Bauer and Anthony DeSclafani. At least on paper, plugging in Miley as the last member of the group upgrades the Reds’ rotation and improves their chances of breaking a six-year playoff drought in 2020.

Miley was also a free agent in each of the past couple offseasons, but this is the best the well-traveled hurler has done on the open market thus far. After settling for a minor league deal and reviving his career as a member of the Brewers in 2018, Miley joined the Astros for a $4.5MM guarantee last winter.

That proved to be a decent deal for both sides, as Miley — despite continuing to throw fastballs in only the 90 mph range — helped the Astros to an AL West title with 167 1/3 regular-season innings of 3.98 ERA/4.51 FIP ball with 7.53 K/9, 3.28 BB/9 and a 49.7 percent groundball rate. He wasn’t without his warts, though, as a brutal stretch of starts in September eventually led to Miley being omitted from the Astros’ World Series roster. Nevertheless, Miley’s body of work over the past two seasons is undeniably solid and has clearly convinced many in the industry that he’s again a viable rotation piece.

For Miley, heading to Cincinnati reunites him with pitching coach Derek Johnson. It was Johnson, then Milwaukee’s pitching coach, who helped bring Miley’s career back to life a couple years ago. And now that the Reds’ rotation appears to be complete, they’re free to turn their focus to other needs (shortstop? Catcher? Outfield? Bullpen?) as they continue to seek a return to relevance.

From a payroll vantage point, the team should have some financial breathing room in order to further add to the existing roster. Roster Resource’s Jason Martinez projects a $124MM Opening Day payroll that is a stone’s throw away from last year’s Opening Day mark of roughly $126MM, but owner Bob Castellini and the Reds’ front office have preached aggression as they’ve moved from a longstanding rebuilding effort and shifted into a win-now mentality in what looks to be an increasingly vulnerable NL Central division.

MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand first reported the agreement and the terms (Twitter link). Joel Sherman and Ken Davidoff of the New York Post added details on the incentives and option value (Twitter links).

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

MLBTR Poll: Nicholas Castellanos’ Contract

By Anthony Franco | December 15, 2019 at 8:30am CDT

With free agency’s top three players all having come off the board at the Winter Meetings, fans can now turn their attention to the second tier of the market. Chief among those second-tier players is Nicholas Castellanos. The youngest free agent among MLBTR’s top 50, the 27-year-old (28 in March) has compiled a strong multi-year offensive track record. Since the start of 2017, he has slashed .287/.337/.505 (121 wRC+). He also has the fortune of hitting the market fresh off a dynamic second-half tear following a trade from the Tigers to the Cubs. Even more importantly, that midseason swap allowed him to hit the market unencumbered by a qualifying offer.

Castellanos’ defensive shortcomings have been thoroughly discussed, and they figure to drag down his market somewhat. He washed out at third base, and the Tigers bumped him to the corner outfield. Unsurprisingly, that transition got off to a dreadful start, as Castellanos rated as 31 outs below average, per Statcast, over his first season-plus on the grass. To his credit, he took a significant step forward with the glove in 2019. Last year, Statcast had Castellanos as just two outs below average, while UZR and DRS each felt he cost his teams about five to ten runs defensively. It’s highly unlikely Castellanos will ever be even average with the glove, but he has shown enough competency to pique the interest of NL suitors. Teams needn’t have a DH slot to plug Castellanos’ potent bat into the lineup. They just have to be willing to stomach less-than-ideal range in the corner outfield.

Castellanos’ youth gives him a broad range of appeal. Teams not poised to contend in 2020 could still pursue Castellanos and expect a few peak years in 2021 and beyond. Whether he would be amenable to joining a non-contender after suffering through a few miserable years in Detroit isn’t clear, but he should have plenty of options. To this point in the offseason, we’ve heard Castellanos linked to the Rangers, Diamondbacks, Marlins, and Reds. The Cubs, too, obviously like the player, but they are seemingly unwilling to take on the cost a Castellanos deal would require. At the start of the offseason, MLBTR readers considered the cross-town White Sox the plurality favorite, as did the MLBTR staff. They haven’t been publicly tied to Castellanos this offseason, though, and they’ve seemingly addressed their right field situation through other means. To this point, the strongest tie to Castellanos has been with the Giants. One rival executive thinks it a foregone conclusion he’ll end up in San Francisco, although there’s ample time for the sweepstakes to go in any number of directions.

What of Castellanos’ price tag? He’s a tough free agent to pin down. The MLBTR staff forecast a four-year, $58MM deal at the start of the offseason. There are perhaps wider error bars on Castellanos than many free agents, though. He obviously has wide appeal, having been linked to almost a third of the league over the past month. The market, too, has proven stronger than anticipated for quite a few players in the early going. That said, we’re only a few months removed from the Tigers trading Castellanos to Chicago for a pair of mid-tier prospects. That came on the heels of months of Detroit not finding any offers to their liking despite Castellanos’ prominent availability on the trade block. There’s no doubt Castellanos improved his stock somewhat by tearing the cover off the ball in Chicago, but it wasn’t all that long ago that teams seemed to regard him as a fine but hardly game-changing player.

As we did recently with Josh Donaldson, let’s turn things over to you to gauge the Castellanos market.

Where will Castellanos sign (answer order randomized)? Poll link for app users.

Where Will Nicholas Castellanos Sign?

Reds 21.52% (5,534 votes)

Cubs 20.26% (5,211 votes)

Giants 17.01% (4,374 votes)

White Sox 16.50% (4,244 votes)

Rangers 13.58% (3,492 votes)

Diamondbacks 4.21% (1,083 votes)

Other (specify in comments) 4.02% (1,035 votes)

Marlins 2.90% (747 votes)

Total Votes: 25,720

For how long will the contract be? Poll link for app users.

How many guaranteed years will Nicholas Castellanos receive?

Four years 48.70% (7,223 votes)

Three years 31.27% (4,639 votes)

Five-plus years 11.33% (1,681 votes)

Two years 6.67% (990 votes)

One year 2.02% (300 votes)

Total Votes: 14,833

What will be the final number? Poll link for app users.

How much guaranteed money will Nicholas Castellanos receive?

$55-70MM 40.39% (5,574 votes)

$40-55MM 25.72% (3,550 votes)

$70-85MM 19.88% (2,743 votes)

Under $40MM 8.06% (1,113 votes)

Over $85MM 5.95% (821 votes)

Total Votes: 13,801

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