Votto Unsure Of Interest In Long-Term Deal
Over the past few seasons, Joey Votto has built up a reputation as one of the National League's best hitters. This season, he's exploded for a .323/.423/.598 slash line with 37 home runs, carrying the Reds to the postseason for the first time in 15 years. He's a frontrunner for the NL MVP award, but according the Cincinnati Enquirer's John Fay, the Reds' superstar "doesn't know" if he's interested in signing a long-term deal.
The club has yet to approach Votto about an extension. And, while Votto may be uncertain for the time being about the prospect of a long-term deal, let's look at his situation a little more in-depth.
Votto will be arbitration eligible for the first time this offseason, and as Fay points out, an MVP trophy (or even a runner-up finish) certainly looks nice in arbitration hearings. Ryan Howard won his case and was awarded a $10MM salary following his MVP season, though he had a Rookie of the Year trophy to his name (Votto finished second in 2008) and gaudier HR and RBI totals. Fellow Canadian and 2006 AL MVP Justin Morneau had more similar numbers in his MVP season and signed for $4.5MM in his first year of arbitration, following that MVP effort.
The second time around, Howard inked a three-year deal worth $54MM rather than going through arbitration again. Morneau, who had a down year in 2007, avoided arbitration and signed for $7.4MM in his second year before erasing that deal and agreeing to a six-year, $80MM contract prior to the 2008 season. Votto could fit somewhere between the two MVP first basemen in terms of both years and dollars. As MLBTR's Ben Nicholson-Smith pointed out in examining Votto's extension candidacy in late August, the next three years could cost the Reds in the neighborhood of $30MM one way or another.
Votto's tear has continued since then, however, and in his article, Fay suggests Votto will submit a $10MM figure in arbitration this offseason. If that ends up being the case, Votto's arbitration years could cost in the neighborhood of $35MM or more.
There's no way to accurately predict the value of a contract for Votto, but contracts of some of his peers suggest that signing for five years at $15MM-$16MM per season might be fair for both sides. That would all depend though, on Votto's decision between signing or going year-to-year and hitting free agency at age 30. If that's the route he chooses, he could be in line for a mammoth Mark Teixeira-type contract on the open market.
Arroyo Believes Reds Will Pick Up 2011 Option
After the season, the Reds will face a decision on Bronson Arroyo that will essentially be worth at least $9MM. Arroyo's $11MM option could increase to $13MM based on innings pitched, but the right-hander tells Hal McCoy of the Daily Dayton News that he thinks the team will exercise the option rather than pay the $2MM buyout.
"They have to pick up my option, no matter what, even if they planned to trade me,” Arroyo said. “They have to pick it up. If they let me walk for free ($2 million), they’d be giving me a huge lottery ticket."
Arroyo hints that while he wouldn't expect to earn Derek Lowe money ($15MM annually) if he becomes a free agent, his numbers (215.2 IP, 3.88 ERA) are probably good enough that teams would be willing to match or exceed the price Cincinnati would have to pay to keep him. When MLBTR's Ben Nicholson-Smith looked at the possibility of Arroyo reaching free agency, he agreed, suggesting the 33-year-old could earn a contract worth $20MM over two years. Still, Arroyo doesn't sound like he expects to hit the open market, indicating that he'd prefer to remain in Cincinnati anyway.
"I’d like to be here for a few more years," said Arroyo. "We have a young club with the opportunity for success down the road and I’m comfortable in my surroundings and I enjoy the city. I’d like to be here for at least three more, but it all depends on what they want."
Reds Will Sign Baker To A Multi-Year Deal
5:09pm: Baker tells John Fay of the Cincinnati Enquirer that the contract is a two-year extension.
11:29am: It’s not official yet, but Reds manager Dusty Baker will be back next season on a multi-year contract, according to Hal McCoy of the Dayton Daily News. Baker told McCoy that the sides are close to a deal and a confidante of Baker’s said it’s a matter of “dotting I’s and crossing T’s” at this point.
The deal, which will probably be for three seasons, could be announced within the week, but it’s more likely that we’ll hear an official announcement after the postseason. Baker led the Reds to an NL Central title this year in his third season as the team’s manager. Prior to joining the Reds, Baker managed the Cubs for four seasons and led the Giants to the 2002 World Series.
The Reds have been discussing a contract with Baker since offering him an extension in August. The 61-year-old earned over $10MM on his current three-year deal and it would be a surprise to see the Reds offer less for another three-year term.
Baseball Blogs Weigh In: LaRue, Martin, Ortiz, Minaya
On this date four years ago, Trevor Hoffman set a new career saves mark when he retired Ryan Doumit, Jose Bautista, and Freddy Sanchez of the Pirates in order. His 479th save moved him past Lee Smith and into first place on the all-time list, a spot he still holds today with 600 career saves on the nose. Other than Mariano Rivera and the soon-to-retire Billy Wagner, no active closer is within 310 saves of Hoffman's mark.
Here's a collection of links from the last week of the baseball blog world…
- The Hardball Times takes an in-depth look at the legal implications of the Johnny Cueto–Jason LaRue brawl that led to LaRue's retirement.
- Disciples of Uecker checks in with the players the Brewers traded for C.C. Sabathia back in 2008.
- Pittsburgh Lumber Co. looks at how the Pirates bullpen has performed since trading away some key pieces at the deadline.
- The Process Report follows up a previous post and explains how Jose Lobaton continues to help the Rays even though he's never played a game for them.
- Mike Scioscia's Tragic Illness breaks down the Dodgers' options with Russell Martin.
- Red Sox Beacon tries to figure out what Boston should do with David Ortiz.
- Amazin' Avenue audits Omar Minaya's front office.
- Crashburn Alley discusses the genius of Charlie Manuel.
- Drunk Jays Fans looked at the merits of Rays' bench coach Dave Martinez as a potential Cito Gaston replacement.
- Feeling Dodger Blue says Tim Wallach should have gotten the Dodgers manager job over Don Mattingly.
- A Fan's Opinion plans out the Angels offseason.
- DesigNate Robertson does the same, but for the Tigers.
- Lookout Landing guesses at the Mariners' 2011 payroll.
If you have a suggestion for this feature, Mike can be reached here.
Odds & Ends: Stairs, Diamondbacks, Blue Jays, Nats
Links on a very rainy evening in the Bronx..
- Matt Stairs nearly retired this winter but now he tells Corey Brock of MLB.com (via Twitter) that he wants to play for another year or two.
- The Diamondbacks will decide interim manager Kirk Gibson's fate soon, writes MLB.com's Steve Gilbert.
- Toronto could give their entire staff a makeover upon hiring a new manager, writes Shi Davidi of The Canadian Press.
- Stan Kasten told Thomas Boswell of the Washington Post that he's still not sure if he'll return to the Nats next season.
- The Mets may already have their 2011 second baseman in Daniel Murphy, writes Adam Rubin of ESPNNewYork.com.
- The Reds won't be auditioning Yonder Alonso for a potential deal as Joey Votto is set to return to action on Friday, tweets John Fay of the Cincinnati Enquirer.
- Mets GM Omar Minaya told Anthony DiComo of MLB.com (via Twitter) that he's not concerned about speculation over his job security.
- It's a good time for ex-Mariners managers, tweets Larry Stone of the Seattle Times.
Manager Notes: Baker, Gibson, Torre
A couple of interesting managerial notes for your Sunday reading pleasure:
- Dusty Baker continues to mull over the contract extension offered by the Reds, writes the Cincinnati Enquirer's John Fay. It's believed that the offer was for multiple years, but Baker won't confirm that. He says that he's focused on winning a division title, not his own future.
- In a piece for MLB.com, George Von Benko writes that Kirk Gibson says he'd like to continue managing the Diamondbacks, but regardless of who's in charge, the organization will be headed in a different direction in 2011.
- Joe Torre called rumors connecting him to the Mets "irresponsible," writes MLB.com's Ken Gurnick. According to Torre, he's had no conversations with anyone regarding his future.
Odds & Ends: Brenly, DeJesus, Lackey, Reds
Some links to peruse before Yovani Gallardo locks up with Tim Lincecum later tonight…
- The Cubs will consider Bob Brenly for their vacant managerial post, according to Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times.
- David DeJesus is waiting to hear from the Royals about their decision on his $6MM option for next season according to Bob Dutton of The Kansas City Star. The club has until October 15th to exercise the option, and GM Dayton Moore said he's "not prepared to say what [they're] doing at this point."
- WEEI.com's Alex Speier says that John Lackey hasn't been worth the risk for the Red Sox yet, and he'll have to buck historical trends to be worth the remainder of his five-year, $82.5MM contract.
- Meanwhile, Jim Donaldson of The Providence Journal jokes that the Sox should be able to ask Lackey and Josh Beckett for refunds given how they've pitched after signing their new deals.
- There will be plenty of competition for a spot in the Cubs rotation next season, writes Paul Sullivan of The Chicago Tribune.
- David Barron of The Houston Chronicle looks at how the Reds are thriving thanks to a mix of young players and veterans.
Odds & Ends: Hudson, Mets, Arroyo, Atkins
As major league teams unveil their 2011 schedules, here are some news items….
- As Daniel Hudson improves to 6-1 with a 1.67 ERA as a Diamondback tonight, Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel tweets that Hudson "probably" could have been a Brewer had Milwaukee accepted a one-for-one offer from Chicago for Prince Fielder. The problem at the time was that the Brewers projected Hudson as only a third or fourth starter and wanted more for their slugger. Obviously hindsight is 20/20 on any missed trade, but if Hudson continues to pitch well in Arizona, it will put even more pressure on the Brewers to get a big return back if they do end up dealing Fielder.
- An anonymous NL official tells Newsday's Ken Davidoff that Jose Reyes could command "one really good prospect, one solid prospect, and one or two medium-range prospects" in a trade should the Mets put their shortstop on the market this winter. This source seems in favor of a total rebuild for the Mets; he also thinks they should try to deal David Wright and Francisco Rodriguez.
- Hal McCoy of the Dayton Daily News cites Bronson Arroyo's durability, consistent win totals and veteran presence as reasons why Cincinnati should pick up the right-hander's $11MM option for next season.
- We've heard that the Rockies will look for a right-handed first baseman to platoon with Todd Helton next season, and ESPN.com's Jason A. Churchill cites former Rockie Garrett Atkins as a possibility for the role. Atkins was non-tendered by Colorado last winter and after signing a one-year contract with Baltimore, was released by the Orioles last July.
- Interim Arizona GM Jerry Dipoto will interview for the full-time position tomorrow, reports MLB.com's Steve Gilbert (Twitter link).
- Any Boston fans tickled by A.J. Burnett's struggles this season might not want to crow too much, since Fangraphs' Joe Pawlikowski cites Burnett as comparable to the also-struggling John Lackey.
- Charley Walters of the St. Paul Pioneer Press wonders if the Red Sox might pursue Jim Thome as a cheaper free agent DH option rather than pick up David Ortiz's 2011 option.
- Travis Buck's "organizational status is clearly at an all-time low" in Oakland, writes Mychael Urban of CSNBayArea.com. Buck is eligible for arbitration for the first time this winter and could be non-tendered given the number of other promising outfielders in the Athletics' system.
- If Jesus Montero can develop a solid catching glove to go along with his powerful bat, the Mariners may regret passing on New York's Montero-centered offer for Cliff Lee, writes ESPN.com's Buster Olney.
- Blogger El Lefty Malo praises the Giants' acquisition of Cody Ross and some other recent Brian Sabean moves.
- Angels manager Mike Scioscia thinks the Halos just need a "tweaking" rather than an overhaul in the winter, reports Mike DiGiovanna of the Los Angeles Times.
- Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch says upgrading the infield should be a top priority for the Cardinals in the offseason.
Odds & Ends: Cardinals, Diamondbacks, Mets, Harang,
Here are some links to check out on a very muggy Monday night in New York..
- So far, it appears that the Cardinals are getting more than their money's worth when it comes to Matt Holliday, says Jack Moore of Fangraphs.
- Arizona will begin their GM search in earnest on Tuesday when they interview Dodgers' scouting director Logan White, writes Jack Magruder of FoxSportsArizona.com.
- Bill Madden of the New York Daily News wants to see the Mets hire Kevin Towers as GM and Lee Mazzilli as manager.
- A reader asked John Fay of the Cincinnati Enquirer (via Twitter) why the club didn't designate Aaron Harang for assignment instead of Enerio Del Rosario. Fay believes that it has to do with when the Reds want to pay the starter his buyout of $2MM.
- Toronto manager Cito Gaston isn't having second thoughts about retiring at season's end, writes Pete Kerzel for MLB.com.
- Pirates GM Neal Huntington told Jenifer Langosch of MLB.com that picking up reliever Chris Leroux was a moderate risk worth taking.
Reds Designate Enerio Del Rosario For Assignment
The Reds designated Enerio Del Rosario for assignment to make room for newly-acquired utility man Willie Bloomquist, according to MLB.com's Mark Sheldon (on Twitter). Del Rosario, 24, pitched 8.2 innings for the Reds this year, striking out three, but allowing 13 hits and four walks.
The Reds signed Del Rosario as an amateur free agent in 2005 and saw him develop into a Florida State League All-Star in 2009. He posted a 3.09 ERA in 64 innings at Triple A this year with 4.8 K/9 and 2.4 BB/9.