Reds Rumors

Odds & Ends: Indians, Dunn, Cardona, Giants

By Zachary Links | May 13, 2010 at 10:45pm CDT

Let's check out some links on a beautiful evening in New Jersey..

Indians manager Manny Acta says that he's still focused on developing the team's young talent, writes Paul Hoynes of The Plain Dealer.
Adam Dunn says that signing another two-year deal wouldn't be his preference, though he's not opposed to it, writes Bill Ladson of MLB.com.
Other clubs are upset over Toronto's reported agreement with Adonis Cardona, writes Jeremy Sandler of the National Post.
Even more from Baggarly, as he tells us not to expect the Giants to sign Jermaine Dye or call up Buster Posey in the coming days.
Andrew Baggarly of the Mercury News (via Twitter) doesn't think the Giants would benefit from bringing back Ryan Garko.
Former Royals manager Trey Hillman said that the team had a lengthy players-only meeting prior to being swept by the Rangers, tweets Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports.
Giants manager Bruce Bochy, GM Brian Sabean, and hitting coach Hensley Meulens are "talking over options" following a 1-hit loss to San Diego, writes Andrew Baggarly of the Mercury News (via Twitter).
The Reds have promoted Yonder Alonso to Triple-A Louisville, tweets Ben Badler of Baseball America. Baseball America's 2010 Prospect Handbook rated Alonso ahead of Mike Leake in Cincinnati's farm system but behind Todd Frazier.
MLB.com's Jesse Sanchez writes that Major League Baseball is hoping to clean up the sport in Venezuela.

If The Reds Become Buyers

By Tim Dierkes | May 11, 2010 at 1:09pm CDT

There's been plenty of talk about the Reds becoming sellers later this year, potentially shedding the salaries of Aaron Harang, Bronson Arroyo, and Francisco Cordero. However, at 17-15, this team is firmly in contention. The problem is that their runs scored and allowed totals suggest a below-.500 team, a club that should finish with 74 wins or so. To remain in the playoff hunt, the Reds need to play better.

With 4.66 runs scored per game this year, the Reds rank in the middle of the NL. If they're able to maintain that production, they'd probably finish around sixth in the runs scored rankings. Improvements might come from within, as more is expected from Brandon Phillips, Orlando Cabrera, Drew Stubbs, and Jonny Gomes. My speculation: potential outfield bats the Reds could pursue include Scott Podsednik, Andruw Jones, David DeJesus, and Ryan Church. The ability to play center field would be beneficial.

The Reds' starting pitching has been terrible, with a 5.31 ERA. Only Mike Leake has an ERA under 5.00. Again, improvements should come from within, with Harang, Arroyo, Johnny Cueto, and Homer Bailey capable of better things. Aroldis Chapman doesn't appear ready given a 5.1 BB/9 in Triple A. One interesting rental idea if the Diamondbacks continue to stumble: Brandon Webb. He's talked about playing closer to his Kentucky home, so Cincinnati would be perfect.

The Reds' bullpen has technically struggled, though much of the ERA damage came from low-leverage pitchers Logan Ondrusek and Carlos Fisher. Despite spotty control, Nick Masset's 14.6 K/9 and .511 BABIP suggest he'll round back into setup man form.

Like most teams, the Reds have a few areas for improvement. However, their likeliest path to the playoffs involves veterans simply meeting expectations.

Odds & Ends: Huff, Posey, Lewis, Yankees, Johnson

By Zachary Links | May 9, 2010 at 9:58pm CDT

Congratulations to Dallas Braden on throwing the 19th perfect game in MLB history. Let's check out some links from around the web..

Aubrey Huff is playing well defensively, writes Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle.
Catcher Buster Posey remains in Triple-A Fresno because Giants officials are not convinced that he is ready to catch in the majors, GM Brian Sabean told Andrew Baggarly of The Mercury News. Sabean insists that the decision has nothing to do with service-time concerns. MLBTR's Luke Adams led a discussion post that touched on the issue over the weekend.
Jordan Bastian of MLB.com tweets a quote from Fred Lewis, who says that he's happy to be on a team that never quits. Lewis was traded from San Francisco to Toronto roughly three weeks ago.
Steve at River Ave. Blues takes a look at the Yankees' offseason targets and how they've fared in the early stages of the 2010 season.
Cue the scary organ music. Jeff Zrebiec tells us that Orioles reliever Jim Johnson was placed on the disabled list with a strained ulnar collateral ligament and is seeking a second opinion from Dr. James Andrews. MLB.com's Britt Ghiroli has comments from O's president Andy MacPhail and manager Dave Trembley.
According to a team press release, the Mariners have relieved hitting coach Alan Cockrell of his duties. Alonzo Powell has been promoted from Triple-A Tacoma in his place.
In his latest mailbag, Hal McCoy of the Dayton Daily News writes that the Reds' next manager will not be a high-priced guy with star power. That includes Lou Piniella, who plans on making Chicago his last stop as a manager.
David O'Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution points out that ex-Braves Kelly Johnson and Adam LaRoche are mashing in Arizona.
Jason Marquis could be as little as two rehab assignments away from rejoining the Nationals, tweets Adam Kilgore of the Washington Post. Marquis inked a two-year, $15MM deal with the club this offseason but was sidelined after three outings in April.
Mark Kiszla of The Denver Post implores the Rockies to make a big trade.

Reds Unlikely To Trade For Leadoff Hitter

By Mike Axisa | May 7, 2010 at 11:41am CDT

Reds' leadoff hitters have a league worst .237 OBP, but John Fay of The Cincinnati Enquirer reports that any help is going to have to come from within for the time being.

“I don’t think we have anyone in the minors capable of the filling that role,” said GM Walt Jocketty. “And, frankly, there’s no one available in trade right now. I think we’re going to try to fix it internally. We may be able to do something in trade later.

Drew Stubbs has served as the primary leadoff hitter this year, but his batting line sits at just .174/.267/.283, though he has stolen seven bases in eight tries. Chris Dickerson has also spent some time hitting leadoff, but he's been even worse with the stick: .205/.222/.273.

The Reds are set all around the infield, so if they did pursue a trade for leadoff type down the road, they would have to look at an outfielder. Scott Podsednik could make some sense if the Royals are willing to move him, ditto Coco Crisp and the A's (when he gets healthy). That's just me speculating, though.

2011 Contract Issues: Cincinnati Reds

By Tim Dierkes | May 3, 2010 at 4:38pm CDT

The Reds face a slew of contractual options after the season:

Aaron Harang has a $12.75MM club option with a $2MM buyout. The option price increases by $250K if Harang reaches 210 innings. Plus, both the option price and buyout increase if he's traded. If Harang stays with the Reds through the season, they'll decline.
Bronson Arroyo has an $11MM club option with a $2MM buyout. The option can increase to $13MM based on innings pitched. I envision the Reds declining this as well, giving them flexibility to sign a veteran replacement.
Shortstop Orlando Cabrera has a $4MM mutual option, with a buyout that can be worth either $0.5MM or $1MM. It'll probably be the latter, assuming the player exercises and the club declines.
Catcher Ramon Hernandez has a $3.25MM option that vests with 120 games. Assuming Ryan Hanigan stays healthy, this won't vest.
Outfielder Jonny Gomes has a $1.75MM club option with a buyout ranging from $50K to $200K based on plate appearances.

The Reds have three other free agents in Arthur Rhodes, Mike Lincoln, and Miguel Cairo. The trio earns $5MM this year. All told the Reds will clear just under $30MM if all of these players are allowed to leave, accounting for buyouts.

The Reds have $4.76MM in increases to players under contract, most of it going to Brandon Phillips. They'll also owe first-time arbitration raises to Joey Votto, Edinson Volquez, Johnny Cueto, Micah Owings, and Bill Bray. Jared Burton and Laynce Nix will be in the second-time class. It'll cost over $10MM extra to retain the key players, with Votto getting the biggest bump.

Holding payroll steady and allowing all free agents to leave, the Reds should have over $10MM to work with. They'll have a lot of holes to fill. If the Reds are out of the race in a few months, saving $5-10MM in salary dumps would go a long way for 2011.

Thanks to Cot's Baseball Contracts for the info.

2011 Vesting Options Update

By Tim Dierkes | May 3, 2010 at 10:58am CDT

We entered the season with nine 2011 vesting option situations to watch. With one month in the books, several have already been pretty much decided. Let's take a look.

Brian Fuentes, Angels. A back strain put Fuentes on the DL for a little while, making it unlikely he reaches 55 games finished. He'd need 51 in the team's remaining 136 games to cause his $9MM option to vest.
Billy Wagner, Braves. Wagner's $6.5MM option vests with 50 games finished. He's finished eight games so far, and would have a shot at 50. However, the 38-year-old lefty recently told Braves manager Bobby Cox he'll retire after the season.
Trever Miller, Cardinals. His $2MM option vests with 45 games, and he's appeared in seven so far. That's behind Miller's typical pace; he's averaged 71 the last three years. It's probably random, and Miller should still reach 45 games.
Matt Cain, Giants. The $6.25MM option probably would've vested, but the Giants decided to guarantee Cain's 2011 salary at $7MM as part of an extension.
Kerry Wood, Indians. His $11MM option vests with 55 games finished, but a back injury has Wood just now approaching his 2010 big league debut.
Alex Cora, Mets. His $2MM option vests with 80 starts. He's started ten games so far. With Luis Castillo and Jose Reyes in the Mets' middle infield, we can't rule this one out yet.
Darren Oliver, Rangers. His $3.25MM option vests with 59 appearances. He's already made a dozen, so this is looking likely.
Ramon Hernandez, Reds. His $3.25MM option vests with 120 games played. Hernandez is at 16 so far, with the red-hot Ryan Hanigan getting more playing time recently.
Magglio Ordonez, Tigers. His $15MM option vests with 135 starts or 540 plate appearances. He's at 25 games started and 113 plate appearances, so he'll get there barring injury.
We're down to five vesting options to monitor: Miller, Cora, Oliver, Hernandez, and Ordonez. Also keep an eye on Francisco Rodriguez, whose scary $17.5MM option for 2012 vests with 100 games finished in 2010-11, 55 games finished in '11, and a successful physical after the '11 season. K-Rod has finished nine games on the young season.

Odds & Ends: Rangers, Chapman, Capps, Choo

By Tim Dierkes | April 29, 2010 at 8:18pm CDT

Links for Thursday, as Kelly Johnson and Paul Konerko jockey for the MLB home run lead…

Richard Durrett of ESPN Dallas takes a look at what the Rangers could do with their roster once Ian Kinsler returns from the disabled list tomorrow.
Reds' GM Walt Jocketty said that the team doesn't have a timetable for Aroldis Chapman's arrival in the Majors, says John Fay of The Cincinnati Enquirer.
Dejan Kovacevic of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette wonders why the Pirates didn't retain Matt Capps in hopes that he'd rebuild value. Capps is generating attention as MLB's saves (and save opportunity) leader. The righty told Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times it was a pretty close competition between the Cubs and Nationals for his services, once he was non-tendered.
Yahoo's Tim Brown profiles Shin-Soo Choo, who his agent Scott Boras feels "has a chance to be the best Pacific Rim player ever over the course of his career."
SI's Ann Killion writes about Barry Zito's apparent redemption. Zito is rocking a 1.32 ERA, an improved groundball rate, and an unsustainable .203 batting average on balls in play through four starts. If Zito can continue to keep the walks down, he could have his best year as a Giant. Of course, he flashed a similar walk rate in July and August of last year.
Matt Kemp's agent Dave Stewart discussed Ned Colletti's recent comments on ESPN's Mason & Ireland show, saying the public criticism "should never have happened."
Geoff Baker of the Seattle Times notes that the Mariners made the right call in not signing Jarrod Washburn.
Baseball Prospectus' Kevin Goldstein does a mock draft of the first ten picks this year.
Mark Zuckerman talked to a high-ranking Nationals official who finds Goldstein's criticism of Bryce Harper's makeup "way overblown." Meanwhile, Byron Kerr of MASNSports.com spoke to Harper's college coach about those same makeup concerns.

Odds & Ends: Rosario, Red Sox, Bernazard, Storen

By Luke Adams 2 | April 27, 2010 at 10:28pm CDT

Links for Tuesday….

Baseball America's Ben Badler tweets that the Red Sox have signed speedy 17-year-old outfielder Roberto Rosario from the upstart Dominican Prospect League for $150K.
The Red Sox might be in a terrific position to take advantage of the Ryan Howard contract fallout, says Brian MacPherson of The Providence Journal.
FoxSports.com's Ken Rosenthal interviewed former Mets' executive Tony Bernazard, who was fired last year. It's a very interested read, give it a look.
MASNSports.com's Ben Goessling explores the financial savings the Nationals could enjoy if they delay calling up Drew Storen.
Meanwhile, MLB.com's Joe Frisaro says the Marlins aren't going rush Mike Stanton to the big leagues.
Dusty Baker denied a report that the Reds turned down extension talks, tweets John Fay of The Cincinnati Enquirer.
Didn't get enough Ryan Howard extension reactions yesterday? Not to worry, there are plenty more pundits weighing in today. ESPN.com's Buster Olney says that many baseball people now feel that Howard, "a star in his prime," is overpriced, and the Phillies might regret the contract long before it expires. ESPN.com's Keith Law agrees, writing that he laughed when he heard the news. Matt Gelb of the Philadelphia Inquirer says the contract may be an overpay but it represents "the cost of doing business," and Todd Zolecki of MLB.com says the Phils had to either pony up for Howard or risk letting him walk after 2011.
Meanwhile, USA Today's Bob Nightengale suggests Howard's deal could be the beginning of a slew of mammoth contracts for baseball's sluggers.
John Tomase of the Boston Herald notes that modifications in Fangraphs' UZR model make Jason Bay's defense look a whole lot better. Fangraphs' latest UZR update included adjustments for specific ballparks like Fenway, and improved Bay's 2009 UZR from -13.8 to +1.9. As Tomase indicates, Bay and his agent probably would've liked that change made before Bay signed his four-year deal this winter.
Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle reports that the Giants have discussed promoting Buster Posey earlier than June.
In his MLB.com blog, MSNBC's Keith Olbermann speculates on who would be next in line for each managerial job in both the National League and American League.
Also at MLB.com, Peter Gammons has a column up that addresses a few intriguing what-if questions, including what could have happened if the Red Sox had acquired either Alex Rodriguez or Mark Teixeira.

Rosenthal On Kurt Suzuki, Heath Bell, Dusty Baker

By Tim Dierkes | April 26, 2010 at 2:41pm CDT

A look at the latest from Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports…

Rosenthal explains why we shouldn't expect the A's to make catcher Kurt Suzuki available in trade. He suggests that if Suzuki did become available, the demand to acquire three-plus years of his services would exceed Cleveland's return last summer for Victor Martinez. Suzuki hasn't had extension talks with the A's, though John Shea of the San Francisco Chronicle tweeted that he's open to the idea.
Although the Twins explored trades for closers after Joe Nathan went down, they "never had a formal discussion with the Padres about Heath Bell." He may not be a big strikeout guy, but Jon Rauch has done a solid job so far in saving six out of seven.
Rosenthal says Dusty Baker asked the Reds about a contract extension, but "evidently the team is not yet ready to decide upon his future."

When Should The Reds Call Up Chapman?

By Steve Adams | April 25, 2010 at 4:14pm CDT

In the past week, we've taken looks at when the Rangers should call up Justin Smoak and when the Indians should call on Carlos Santana to take over behind the dish. In both of these cases, we looked at teams with glaring holes on their major league club and hot prospects in the wings, so let's look at another.

The Reds entered today's contest with a 6.55 ERA from their rotation, second-worst in all of baseball to Pittsburgh. As a group, they're allowing 4.01 walks per nine innings, and opposing hitters are batting .292 against them. It's no secret that they've got a fireballing lefty at Triple-A Louisville in Aroldis Chapman. While control has been an issue through his first three starts (10 BB through 15 innings), he's managed to strike out 18 batters and allowed just nine hits and one earned run.

Unfortunately for Cincinnati, working Chapman into the rotation may be difficult. Aaron Harang and Bronson Arroyo are making $12.5MM and $11MM, respectively. Homer Bailey is out of options. It's possible to option Johnny Cueto back to Triple-A, but despite his 5.73 ERA on the season, he's actually been their second-best starter. Mike Leake, their fifth starter, is the only one of the bunch who has shown any success this season.

The Reds emerged seemingly from nowhere to sign the 21-year-old Chapman to a six-year, $30.25MM deal this offseason. While some originally thought that he wouldn't be a part of the club's plans early in 2010 (or perhaps even at all), his impressive spring vaulted him into consideration for the rotation. Leake eventually won the battle, but the Reds need an improvement in their starting pitching. They've managed eight wins, but that trend simply can't keep up if the current lack of production from their rotation continues.

It's a slow day, so let's leave it open to discussion. Should the Reds call up Chapman any time soon, and if so, how should they go about it? A trade of Harang or Arroyo could be difficult to facilitate. We've seen both Carlos Zambrano and Jeff Suppan moved to the bullpen this week; could the Reds continue the trend with Harang? Or is Cincinnati better off letting Chapman develop his control more in Louisville, while waiting for their starters to right the ship?

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