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Matt McLain Out 2-3 Weeks With Oblique Strain; Jonathan India Nearing Rehab Assignment

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Manager David Ross told reporters (including Maddie Lee of the Chicago Sun Times) ahead of today’s game against the Reds that Stroman will throw a bullpen session in Arizona. That still leaves a long way for Stroman to go before he can return to a major league mound; assuming tomorrow’s bullpen goes well, he’ll need to progress to facing live hitters and then likely require at least a rehab start or two in the minor leagues before he can return to the starting rotation for the Cubs. Still, even a brief cameo from Stroman before the regular season comes to a close could be a huge boon to Chicago.

  • It seems the Reds will be without rookie infielder Matt McLain for a while yet, as the Cincinnati Enquirer’s Charlie Goldsmith relayed an update from manager David Bell indicating that McLain would be out with an oblique injury for two to three more weeks. Such a timeline would likely leave him out of action for most of the remaining regular season. That’s a major blow to the Reds, who have relied on McLain’s strong bat (129 wRC+) and quality glovework around the infield and sit alongside the Marlins, Diamondbacks, and Giants in the thick of the race for the final NL Wild Card spot. Fortunately, the Reds could still receive some reinforcements for their infield in the near future as second baseman Jonathan India is on track to begin a rehab assignment this week after missing the past month with plantar fasciitis.

Reds Select Chasen Shreve, Promote Connor Phillips

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The Reds announced a series of roster moves this afternoon. The club placed right-hander Graham Ashcraft of the 15-day IL with a stress reaction in his big toe, placed left-hander Brandon Williamson on the COVID-19 IL, selected the contract of left-hander Chasen Shreve, and added right-hander Connor Phillips to the roster as a substitute player. Players on the COVID-19 IL don’t count against a club’s 40-man roster, so the Reds have plenty of temporary flexibility due to the number of players currently shelved with the virus. As a substitute player, Phillips is only temporarily on the roster and can be returned to the minors without being waived. As the club selected Shreve’s contract, he counts against the club’s 40-man roster in a more permanent fashion, though no corresponding move is needed at this time.

Phillips, 22, will make his major league debut the first time he gets into a game. MLB Pipeline ranks the young right-hander as the club’s fourth best prospect and the 70th best prospect in the sport. He opened the year with a dominant performance at Double-A, posting a 3.34 ERA in 64 2/3 innings of work with an incredible 39.1% strikeout rate. Since receiving a promotion to Triple-A, however, Phillips has begun to struggle. His 40 1/3 innings at the level have yielded a 4.69 ERA, while his strikeout rate has plummeted to 24.2% and his walk rate has ballooned to a massive 16.9%.

Given his age, prospect pedigree and dominance as recently as earlier this season, it’s certainly possible Phillips has a lengthy and successful big league career in his future. In the short-term, however, he’ll need to significantly cut down on the free passes if he hopes to help the 70-67 Reds fight their way into one of the NL Wild Card spots with key pitchers like Williamson and right-hander Hunter Greene out for an unknown amount of time due to the clubhouse’s COVID outbreak.

Shreve, 33, joined the Reds on a minor league deal last month. He had spent the 2023 season with the Tigers prior to that, pitching to a roughly league average 4.79 ERA and 4.06 FIP in 47 appearances with the club. The lefty veteran is in his tenth year as a major league pitcher, with a career 3.88 ERA. While he’s mostly looked the part of a middle reliever throughout his career, it’s worth noting he’s posted a 2.65 ERA with a 34.8% strikeout rate against same-handed hitters this season. With Sam Moll as the only other southpaw in the Cincinnati bullpen as things stand, Shreve seems likely to be able to carve out a specialized role in the Reds’ bullpen going forward.

Joining several of his teammates on the COVID IL is Williamson, who has looked the part of a solid mid-to-back of the rotation starter during his rookie campaign. Across 19 starts with the Reds this year, Williamson has posted a 4.20 ERA (109 ERA+) and a 4.51 FIP in 98 2/3 innings of work. The loss of a reliable rotation arm like Williamson further compounds the club’s pitching woes. In addition to Greene’s move to the COVID IL, the Reds recently lost any hope of left-hander Nick Lodolo returning this season.

Williamson isn’t the only starter hitting the shelf today, either, as Ashcraft moves to the 15-day IL following his start against the Cubs yesterday, in which he allowed three runs over five innings of work while striking out six. It’s been an up-and-down season for Ashcraft, who dominated to a 2.00 ERA in his first six starts this season before posting a brutal 12.82 ERA over his next eight starts. Since June 30, Ashcraft has posted a 2.58 ERA reminiscent of his strong start to the season, though his 19.8% strikeout rate and eight homers allowed in seven starts both leave his long-term viability as a rotation arm in question. Overall, he’s delivered a 4.76 ERA and 5.07 FIP in 145 2/3 innings of work this season.

Without Williamson and Ashcraft, the club’s rotation is facing a great deal of uncertainty, with only rookie Andrew Abbott as a surefire big league starter on the roster. Lyon Richardson took the ball against the Cubs for the second game of a doubleheader last night, but sports an ugly 6.75 ERA across three starts in the majors. The club will likely have to turn to the likes of Double-A swingman Carson Spiers and journeyman Brett Kennedy to take on innings with most of the club’s rotation out of commission.

Cardinals Claim Michael Siani From Reds

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Both the Reds and Cardinals have announced that St. Louis has claimed outfielder Michael Siani off of Cincinnati’s waiver waire.  Siani was designated for assignment earlier this week, as part of the 40-man roster maneuvering necessary when the Reds claimed Hunter Renfroe and Harrison Bader off waivers.  The Cards also announced that Guillermo Zuniga has been moved from the 15-day injured list to the 60-day IL, thus ending Zuniga’s season.

A fourth-round pick for the Reds in the 2018 draft, Siani is a veteran of 12 big league games — nine in 2022 and three for this year’s team, with four hits over 25 total plate appearances.  Siani is known for both his outstanding defense and speed, as he has stolen 155 bases in 200 total attempts in the minors while also showing excellent glovework in center field.  With a .228/.344/.355 slash line over 2167 PA in the minors, offense is still a work in progress for the 24-year-old, even if his other tools project him as at least a bench option at the MLB level.

While it isn’t a surprise to see another team claim Siani away, Jeff Jones of the Belleville News-Democrat (X link) notes that it is a bit of a curious pickup for the Cardinals in particular, given that St. Louis already has several outfielders on the 40-man roster or on the cusp of the majors.  Of course, a team isn’t just going to pass on a player it thinks has promise, and the Cardinals might clear some space anyway in the outfield this winter.  The team is widely expected to try and trade some of its current outfield mix, likely in search of some badly needed reinforcements for the starting rotation.

Zuniga was first placed on the IL on August 25, and since he is suffering from a right forearm strain, it already looked like he probably wasn’t going to make it back before the end of the 2023 campaign.  The only hope is that the 60-day IL placement isn’t a precursor to a more serious injury like UCL or elbow damage resulting in surgery, as such a procedure could potentially shelve Zuniga for just about all of the 2024 season.  Zuniga made his MLB debut this season, appearing in two games for St. Louis prior to his forearm strain.

Justin Dunn To Undergo Shoulder Surgery

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Reds right-hander Justin Dunn will undergo surgery to repair the anterior capsule of his throwing shoulder, the team informed reporters (including Mark Sheldon of MLB.com). The club didn’t provide a timetable but it’d seem likely he’ll at least miss the remainder of the 2023 season.

Dunn has been on the injured list for the entire season. The former first-round pick has been battling shoulder concerns for a couple years. Dunn had shoulder soreness (of which Cincinnati was aware at the time) even before the Mariners dealt him to the Reds in the Jesse Winker/Eugenio Suárez trade coming out of the lockout. He lost the first half of 2022 rehabbing, returned to make seven starts, then was shut back down last September.

The injuries persisted over the offseason, as Dunn continued to battle a strain in his rotator cuff area. The Reds sent him out on a minor league rehab stint a couple weeks ago. That raised some hope he might make it back to the mound, even if just in short stints, but he’s unfortunately still not past the shoulder woes.

Dunn owns a 4.44 ERA in 32 big league starts. He’s making $900K this year after avoiding arbitration. He’d likely be in line for the same amount next season if the Reds tender him a contract, though that doesn’t seem assured since Cincinnati would have to carry him on the 40-man roster all offseason. He’ll surpass the four-year service threshold this year and would be eligible for arbitration through 2025 if the Reds keep him on the roster.

Reds Designate Alan Busenitz For Assignment, Reinstate Tejay Antone

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The Reds announced a batch of moves between games of today’s double-header. Right-hander Tejay Antone was reinstated from the 60-day injured list, righty Lyon Richardson was recalled and righty Carson Spiers has been added as a substitute player. Righties Fernando Cruz, Hunter Greene and Ben Lively were placed on the COVID-19 injured list, while outfielder TJ Hopkins was optioned to Triple-A Louisville. Right-hander Alan Busenitz was designated for assignment and righty Tony Santillan cleared waivers and was outrighted to Triple-A Louisville.

Antone is back on the MLB roster for the first time in over two years. The reliever was amidst a breakout 2021 showing, emerging as Cincinnati’s closer late in the season after throwing 33 2/3 innings of 2.14 ERA ball, before his UCL gave out. He underwent Tommy John surgery — the second of his career — and spent all of 2022 rehabbing.

The Reds expressed hope Antone would return by the start of the ’23 campaign. He suffered a setback over the offseason, announcing in February that he’d been diagnosed with a flexor strain. It didn’t require surgery but has cost him the first five months of the season.

Antone has been on a rehab stint since late July. He pitched twice at the club’s complex before heading to Triple-A Louisville for 12 appearances. He was solid if unexceptional for the Bats, turning in 12 innings of four-run ball while striking out 11 and walking five.

It’d be a lot to ask of Antone to immediately rediscover his 2021 form. Yet even average output would be welcome for a Cincinnati relief corps that ranks 15th with a 3.96 ERA and 25th with a 22.5% strikeout rate. The bullpen hasn’t been as catastrophic as it had been for the past two seasons, but it’s still a relative weak point on an offense-first Reds’ roster.

Spiers, 25, also steps into the relief corps, in his case for the first time. The Clemson product is in position to make his major league debut after turning in a 3.69 ERA through 83 innings as a swing option for Double-A Chattanooga. He’s striking out nearly 30% of opposing hitters against an elevated 11.3% walk rate.

Players designated as COVID substitutes are temporarily added to the roster. Spiers won’t assume a permanent spot on the 40-man roster and can be sent back to the minors without first clearing waivers. He’ll help cover for the trio of pitchers affected by an apparent virus spread in the clubhouse.

Busenitz will hit waivers in the next few days. The right-hander has been on and off the big league roster a few times since his contract was selected in mid-May. Busenitz has pitched just five times at the MLB level, allowing two runs in five innings during his first big league work since 2018. Over 43 frames with Louisville, he owns a 4.53 ERA with slightly worse than average strikeout and walk numbers.

Santillan clears waivers after being designated for assignment a few days ago. It’s his first career outright and he has less than three years of MLB service, so he’ll stick in the organization at Triple-A. If the Reds don’t add him back to the 40-man roster by the end of the season, he’d reach minor league free agency.

Reds Claim Harrison Bader, Hunter Renfroe

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The Reds have claimed outfielder Harrison Bader off waivers from the Yankees, reports Jeff Passan of ESPN. The Reds also claimed outfielder Hunter Renfroe from the Angels, per Jesse Rogers of ESPN. By joining the Reds prior to September 1, each will be eligible to participate in the postseason if the club eventually makes it.

Bader, 29, and Renfroe, 31, were two of several veteran players placed on waivers this week. There were many clubs who were still hovering around contention at the trade deadline but slipped back in the standings in the month of August. But the opportunity to trade impending free agents for any kind of return had passed by, leaving them little recourse but to place those players on waivers. By doing so, they could perhaps at least save themselves some money since the claiming team takes on the remainder of the contract, while allowing the player to move somewhere with a chance to contend and perhaps make the playoffs.

Both Bader and Renfroe will do just that, jumping from their respective clubs to the Reds, who have emerged from their rebuild in amazing fashion this year. Several rookies have been called up and have been able to hit the ground running, allowing the club to currently find themselves just one game out of a National League Wild Card spot with a record of 69-66. They will now add a couple of veteran players into the mix for their stretch run, for nothing but a financial cost.

Bader has long been an excellent fielder in center, starting with the Cardinals and continuing with the Yankees after a trade last year. In 621 career games, he’s tallied 53 Defensive Runs Saved, 67 Outs Above Average and a grade of 46.7 from Ultimate Zone Rating. Injuries have been an ongoing issue, however, with Bader only twice playing in more than 103 games in a season. Those instances were back in 2018 and 2019, with multiple IL trips in the seasons since.

At the plate, he’s been less impressive than in the field, usually hovering around league average. His career batting line is .244/.312/.399, which translates to a wRC+ of 93, but he’s hitting just .240/.278/.365 this year for a 76 wRC+. But his speed has allowed him to steal 74 bases in his career, including 17 already this season.

Renfroe is effectively the inverse to Bader, as his bat his generally his best trait, with his speed and defense considered subpar. Though his offense is his standout trait, he’s inconsistent in that regard, with his production oscillating between either side of league average. Over 2021 and 2022, he hit 60 home runs and produced a batting line of .257/.315/.496, amounting to a wRC+ of 118. But this year, he’s down a bit to .242/.304/.434 and a 98 wRC+.

Despite each player’s value, the Yankees and Angels fell back in the standings in August and gave up on their hopes of contending. Both of these players are impending free agents and neither would warrant a qualifying offer at season’s end, so their respective clubs placed them on waivers in the hopes that another team would put in a claim and take the remainder of the contract off their hands.

The waiver priority order is the reverse of the standings, with the worst clubs having first dibs. But non-contending clubs would have no incentive for claiming these players, so they have naturally skipped to a contender. In this case, some other fringe contenders like the Guardians and Marlins passed on Bader and Renfroe, though the Reds benefited by being in the playoff race but with a worse record than some of the clubs they are battling.

By adding Renfroe and Bader into the mix, the Reds have further crowded their outfield picture. In recent days, they have had TJ Friedl in center, with Will Benson and Nick Senzel getting regular work in the corners, backed up by Stuart Fairchild and TJ Hopkins. There’s also Jake Fraley, who is on the injured list but currently on a rehab assignment. Spencer Steer has been covering second base with Matt McLain on the IL but could end up back in the outfield if McLain returns.

There’s a lot of moving parts there but the Reds will likely figure out a way to make it work. Senzel is hitting just .219/.289/.371 this year and could be bumped from the regular lineup by Renfroe. Friedl was hitting .313/.379/.486 through June but has slumped to a line of .221/.278/.352 since the calendar flipped to July, perhaps leading to Bader taking some of his playing time. There’s also the designated hitter slot, which has been used by Nick Martini of late. He’s been red hot but in a small sample of just nine games.

However it plays out, the Reds are taking on some money to try to push themselves into the postseason. Bader is making $4.7MM this year with around $783K left to be paid out, while Renfroe has about $1.98MM left on his $11.9MM salary. That leaves the Reds taking on close to $2.76MM in these moves, though the savings for the other clubs will be greater.

The Yankees are set to pay the luxury tax for a second straight year and have been hovering around the fourth CBT tier. That means they will be paying a 75% tax on any spending over the $273MM line and a 90% tax on any spending over the $293MM line. By having Bader claimed on waivers, they will save the remainder of his contract and also reduce their tax bill.

For the Angels, they were narrowly over the lowest CBT threshold and may be able to duck below. In addition to the Reds claiming Renfroe, the Guardians claimed Lucas Giolito, Matt Moore and Reynaldo López while the Mariners claimed Dominic Leone. In addition to the straightforward cost savings, those claims could potentially push them out of payor status, though that won’t be officially known until the offseason. If they did successfully avoid the tax, that would impact the draft pick they receive in the event Shohei Ohtani signs elsewhere after rejecting a qualifying offer. A team that pays the luxury tax sees their compensatory draft pick moved back from just before the third round to just after the fourth, moving from around pick 75-80 to around 140. There are also compounding penalties for repeat payors, meaning that getting below the line here in 2023 could have impacts for the Halos into the future as well.

Images courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Nick Lodolo Reportedly Won’t Return This Season

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Reds left-hander Nick Lodolo is done for the season, reports Mark Sheldon of MLB.com. The southpaw has been on the injured list due to a stress reaction in his left tibia and it appears he won’t be able to heal up in time to rejoin the club.

It’s been a frustrating season for Lodolo, who was hoped to be part of a strong one-two atop the Cincinnati rotation this year alongside Hunter Greene. Both pitchers were first-round draft picks and highly-touted prospects before debuting with strong results in 2022. He tossed 103 1/3 innings over 19 starts last year with a 3.66 earned run average, 29.7% strikeout rate, 8.8% walk rate and 46% ground ball rate.

Unfortunately, he hasn’t been able to build on that here in 2023. He made just seven starts with a 6.29 ERA before landing on the injured list with a leg injury. It was initially described as left calf tendinitis, though it was later diagnosed as a stress reaction in his left tibia and he was placed in a walking boot. He was expected back in August and began a rehab assignment but recently was diagnosed with an additional stress reaction in his tibia, which will keep him from coming back again this year.

It will ultimately go down as a mostly lost season for Lodolo, an unfortunate development for him and the club. The Reds have surged out of their rebuild this year, with various rookies debuting and helping the club emerge as legitimate contenders. That’s been thanks largely to a strong group of position players and in spite of a weak pitching staff. The Reds are 10th in the majors in terms of runs scored but have also allowed the eighth-most runs. Their rotation ERA of 5.30 is better than only the Rockies and the A’s.

In addition to Lodolo’s injury issues, just about every other starting pitcher has gone on the injured list or struggled at some point, with Graham Ashcraft the only pitcher on the staff to crack 100 innings so far this season. Despite all of that, the Reds are just one game back of a playoff spot but could have perhaps been in better position with just a little bit better luck in terms of pitcher health.

For Lodolo personally, he’s missed out on a chance to continue developing at the major league level and help his club. He’ll now go into the offseason with an uncertain status and could perhaps face workload concerns next year. Between his seven starts and then his truncated rehab, he only tossed 41 2/3 innings this year. His highest tally as a professional was the 116 he threw last year between the majors and the minors.

Without Lodolo, the Reds will go into the final month of their postseason push with a rotation that currently consists of Greene, Ashcraft, Andrew Abbott, Brandon Williamson and Ben Lively, with Lyon Richardson, Levi Stoudt and others on the 40-man and in the minors as depth.

Reds Designate Michael Siani, Alejo Lopez For Assignment

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The Reds announced Thursday that they’ve designated outfielder Michael Siani and utilityman Alejo Lopez for assignment. That pair of moves will open space on the 40-man roster for outfielders Harrison Bader and Hunter Renfroe, whose previously reported waiver claims have now been announced by the team.

Siani, 24, made his big league debut with the Reds last year and has briefly appeared this season as well, though he has just 25 MLB plate appearances under his belt overall. He’s 4-for-24 in that time (all singles). The 2018 fourth-round pick has never provided much offense in the minors, where he’s a .244/.338/.362 hitter (including .230/.337/.360 in Triple-A), but his glove and speed are his calling cards.

Siani once ranked as high as eighth among Reds prospects at Baseball America, but his bat hasn’t come around much as he’s progressed through the system. He still draws praise for 60-grade speed — which is made evident by last year’s 52 steals — and plus-plus defense in center field, where he has both ample range and a strong throwing arm. Siani has also walked in 11.4% of his minor league plate appearances, so while his hit tool and power are lacking, he can still post respectable OBP marks and provide value both with his glove (at all three outfield spots) and on the basepaths.

While Siani isn’t an impact bat, he has the makings of a glove-first fourth outfielder and has two minor league option seasons remaining beyond the current year. That could add up to some interest on the waiver wire. The Reds will place him on outright waivers within the next five days.

The 27-year-old Lopez was just selected to the big league roster two days ago but didn’t appear in a game before being removed. He’s seen big league time in each of the past two seasons with the Reds. Lopez has hit for a solid but empty .262 average in 179 career plate appearances, getting on base at a below-average .307 clip with just a .321 slugging percentage. He has big league experience at second base, third base and in the outfield corners. He’s fanned in just 14.6% of his career plate appearances but also walked at a well below-average 5% clip.

Like Siani, Lopez will be placed on waivers within the next five days. Unlike Siani, he’s been outrighted previously in his career, so if he clears waivers he’ll be able to reject a minor league assignment in favor of free agency.

Reds Release Trey Mancini

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First baseman/outfielder Trey Mancini has been released by the Reds, reports Gordon Wittenmyer of the Cincinnati Enquirer.

Mancini, 31, just signed a minor league deal with the Reds a week ago. In five games for Triple-A Louisville, he hit two home runs in 19 plate appearances and slashed .316/.316/.737. Despite that strong showing, he’s been cut loose.

Speculatively speaking, it’s possible that Mancini had some kind of opt-out in his deal, allowing him to return to the open market. By doing so now, he could sign with another club prior to September 1 and thus be postseason eligible with whatever club signs him. Or perhaps the Reds knew they weren’t going to squeeze him onto their roster in the coming days and merely released him as a courtesy, so that he could seek out other opportunities.

Cincy has Christian Encarnacion-Strand getting the bulk of the first base playing time at the moment with Nick Martini mashing in the designated hitter slot in a small sample of eight games. The corner outfield mix consists of Will Benson, Nick Senzel, Stuart Fairchild and TJ Hopkins. Previously, Spencer Steer was in that mix but he seems ticketed for second base work with Matt McLain landing on the injured list recently.

Whatever the reasons for Mancini’s release, it doesn’t appear to be performance-based, as his batting line in that small Triple-A sample was excellent. But prior to joining the Reds, he had been struggling in the big leagues with the Cubs. After signing a two-year, $14MM deal coming into this year, he hit .234/.299/.336 and was released in early August. That means he’s free to sign with any club for the prorated league minimum, with the Cubs remaining on the hook for the majority of the salary.

He will now presumably try to find another team to sign with in the next 30 hours or so. Despite his rough showing this year, he brings plenty of experience to the table, along with a solid track record. In 831 career games, he’s hit .263/.328/.448 for a wRC+ of 108. Defensively, he’s best suited to first base but has also spent some time in the outfield corners.

Reds Designate Tony Santillan For Assignment

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The Reds announced Tuesday that right-hander Tony Santillan has been designated for assignment. His spot on the 40-man roster will go to utilityman Alejo Lopez, who has had his contract selected from Triple-A Louisville. Outfielder Michael Siani was optioned to Louisville to clear active roster space.

A second-round pick back in 2015, the now-26-year-old Santillan ranked among the Reds’ top farmhands for several years before making his big league debut in 2021. He looked to be a potential mainstay in the bullpen after pitching 43 1/3 innings of 2.91 ERA ball with a hefty 29.5% strikeout rate. Santillan’s 11.1% walk rate was in clear need of improvement, but it was nonetheless an impressive debut campaign for a prospect whom the Reds viewed as a potentially notable part of their future.

As is so often the case, however, injuries have intervened and radically altered the equation. Ankle surgery, a stress fracture in his back and a knee strain have combined to limit the righty to just 23 big league innings since that debut. He’s posted a 5.09 ERA during that time, fanning just 19.3% of his opponents against an alarming 14.9% walk rate. Santillan has just 3 1/3 MLB frames under his belt this season and has otherwise spent the year in Louisville, where he’s been clobbered for a 9.26 ERA in 23 1/3 frames with nearly as many walks (22) as strikeouts (28).

Santillan still throws hard, averaging 96.1 mph on his heater over the past two seasons. He’s posted a solid 11.6% swinging-strike rate in his MLB career and clearly has had shown promise at times, but he’ll be out of minor league options next season and the Reds likely wouldn’t have gone through the entire offseason dedicating a 40-man spot to him anyhow. They’ll have no choice but to place Santillan on waivers now, and any team that claims him can keep him in the minors for the remainder of the year. He’d have to break camp on that team’s Opening Day roster next year or else again be designated for assignment, however.

As for the 27-year-old Lopez, he’ll join the Reds for a third straight season. He’s hit for a solid but empty .262 average in 179 career plate appearances, getting on base at a below-average .307 clip with just a .321 slugging percentage. He has big league experience at second base, third base and in the outfield corners. He’ll give the Reds a contact-oriented bench bat who’s fanned in just 14.6% of his career plate appearances but also walked at a well below-average 5% clip.

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