MLBTR Poll: Most Dangerous Second Half Teams
With the unofficial second half of the season set to kick off tomorrow night, it’s worth taking a moment to look at the current standings. If the season were to end today, the American League postseason field would consist of the White Sox, Astros, Red Sox, Rays and A’s. The National League entrants would be the Giants, Brewers, Mets, Dodgers and Padres.
In all likelihood, though, that field will change a bit over the coming months. According to FanGraphs’ playoff odds, the probability of all ten current would-be playoff teams reaching the postseason is just 14.9%. With that in mind, we’ll turn it over to the MLBTR readership to opine on which teams stand the best chance of making a run and unseating a member of the postseason picture.
For simplicity’s sake, we’ll exclude any team with postseason odds below 3%. That rules out the Nationals, Cardinals, Twins, Marlins, Orioles, Tigers, Royals, Rangers, Pirates, Rockies and Diamondbacks.
American League
Yankees (46-43, playoff chances: 40.4%)
It has been a disappointing season to date for a Yankees team that entered the year with World Series aspirations. The lineup, one of the league’s best on paper, has been thoroughly average to this point. The rotation has been similarly middle-of-the-pack, although that was a bit more foreseeable. The bullpen was one of the league’s best early but has hit a skid recently. With all the talent on the roster, the Yankees feel like they should be better, but their +1 run differential reinforces that they’ve played at a merely OK level so far.
Blue Jays (45-42, playoff chances: 34.5%)
The Jays have had an elite offense all year. They had four All-Star position players, three of whom started for the American League. They’re among the top 5 teams in runs scored and wRC+. The pitching has been less impressive, although the rotation and bullpen are both among the top 15 units in ERA. The Jays have had some ill-timed relief issues, though. A 6-10 record in one-run games (including a 2-5 mark in extra innings) has them just three games over .500 despite the AL’s fourth-best run differential.
Angels (45-44, playoff chances: 15.1%)
There’s no doubting the Angels’ high-end position player talent. Getting Mike Trout back to join Shohei Ohtani, Jared Walsh and Anthony Rendon will make them one of the more fearsome middle-of-the-order groupings. The ever-persistent question is on the pitching staff. Angels starters rank just 25th leaguewide with a 5.04 ERA, and the relief corps hasn’t been much better. The defense hasn’t done the pitchers many favors. Despite the quality lineup, the Angels have been outscored by 26 runs.
Indians (45-42, playoff chances: 6.6%)
The Indians hung around the AL Central for quite a while despite an underwhelming offense. A strong bullpen and a trio of quality starting pitchers kept the team in games, but Cleveland lost each of Shane Bieber, Aaron Civale and Zach Plesac to the injured list. Plesac’s back, but the team has predictably sputtered without their top pitchers. They’re still only 4.5 games back in the Wild Card race, but they’ll have to turn things around against a tough schedule coming out of the Break.
Mariners (48-43, playoff chances: 3%)
Seattle’s offense has been a weak point this season. Only the Rockies have a lower team wRC+, although the M’s have hit well enough with runners in scoring position to plate runs at a near-average rate. Both the rotation and bullpen have higher-than-average ERA’s, and the Mariners -50 run differential is the worst among plausible contenders. The projections are highly skeptical they can keep up that kind of high wire act (hence the low odds), but those wins can’t be taken away and the Mariners enter the second half closer to the playoffs than anyone else in the AL discussion.
Which American League Team Is Most Likely To Make The Playoffs In 2021?
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Blue Jays 48% (8,909)
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Yankees 24% (4,413)
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Angels 12% (2,177)
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Mariners 8% (1,571)
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Indians 8% (1,570)
Total votes: 18,640
(poll link for app users)
National League
Reds (48-42, playoff chances: 22.2%)
The Reds have been the National League’s analogue of the Blue Jays. The lineup has been good, ranking sixth in wRC+ and eleventh in runs. The rotation has been solid. Bullpen issues have been Cincinnati’s undoing, as Reds relievers have MLB’s fourth-worst ERA. The Reds are 3.5 games back in the Wild Card race and four back in the NL Central and were playing well leading up to the Break.
Phillies (44-44, playoff chances: 17.8%)
The Phillies lineup has a few stars, but it’s been rather top-heavy and a middle-of-the-pack unit overall. It’s the same story in the rotation, where the back end has continued to be problematic. And the bullpen has blown a league-worst 22 saves. It has been a good core surrounding by a weak enough complimentary cast to keep the team hovering around average. That’s been a common refrain in Philadelphia over the past couple seasons, but few teams can match the Phils’ top-end talent.
Braves (44-45, playoff chances: 7.5%)
One of the more disappointing teams of the first half, Atlanta entered the year as a World Series hopeful but hasn’t gotten into a groove. The lineup has been good, although the loss of Ronald Acuña Jr. is certainly going to be tough to overcome. Starting pitching has been fine but unspectacular, but the bullpen — as with the Reds and Phillies — has been an issue in Atlanta. At +19, the Braves have the best run differential in the NL East, but a 2-6 record in extra-inning games has contributed to them underperforming in the standings.
Cubs (44-46, playoff chances: 4.1%)
The Cubs were in the thick of the NL Central race a few weeks ago. An 11-game losing streak knocked them well back in the standings, though. The current lineup still has some high-end talent, and the bullpen has been great this year. But the rotation has predictably proven an issue, and it seems likely the front office will move some players off the big league roster in the coming weeks.
Which National League Team Is Most Likely To Make The Playoffs In 2021?
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Reds 56% (11,382)
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Phillies 20% (4,066)
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Braves 18% (3,710)
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Cubs 6% (1,211)
Total votes: 20,369
(poll link for app users)
Indians’ Recent Struggles Lead To Difficult Deadline Decisions
A couple weeks ago, the Indians season seemed to hit a crossroads. The team was in a good place in the standings. As recently as June 26, Cleveland was sporting a 41-32 record, sitting only a game and a half behind the AL Central-leading White Sox. They were the only real threat to Chicago in an otherwise bad division.
The state of the roster, though, told a different story. Cleveland’s offense has underwhelmed all year, with the team’s strong run prevention keeping them in the race. The Indians were dealt a series of injuries to their top three starters — Zach Plesac, Shane Bieber and Aaron Civale — in fairly rapid succession, though. That left an unproven, inexperienced group taking the bump without the benefit of a high-powered lineup to back them up.
Not surprisingly, it’s been tough sledding for Cleveland in recent weeks. The Indians have gone just 4-10 over their last fourteen games, falling 7.5 back of the White Sox. They’re a more manageable four games back in the Wild Card race, but their skid has raised some questions about the team’s ability to stay in contention. Plesac returned from the IL this week, but the Indians are still without Bieber and Civale and continue to have questions about the lineup. FanGraphs gives the Indians just a 7.1% chance of reaching the postseason at this point, with their odds of winning the division down to 3.5%.
The front office is no doubt aware of those dwindling playoff odds. Indeed, Jon Heyman of MLB Network hears from rival executives that Cleveland has made some players on the big league roster available to other clubs in advance of the July 30 trade deadline.
It’s not clear specifically which players are on the market, but there’s no indication the Indians are planning any sort of full-on teardown. Bieber and José Ramírez would be the top two players on the trade market were they made available, but it seems highly unlikely the Indians would market those kinds of controllable stars in response to two weeks of poor play. The Cleveland front office would probably figure to listen to offers on players with less club control. There aren’t many players on the Indians roster who stand out as obvious trade chips at first glance, though.
Second baseman César Hernández looks like the team’s most plausible trade candidate. He’s hitting .226/.305/.413 and has already tied his career high in home runs (15) this season. It’s a nontraditional shape of production for Hernández, who typically hits for strong averages and reaches base at a high clip without hitting for much power. While Hernández’s profile has changed in 2021, he’s been similarly valuable as before. His 95 wRC+ this year isn’t far off his career mark (99) and is essentially unchanged from his 2019-20 production (97). Hernández is making an affordable $5MM this season and comes with a $6MM club option (no buyout) for 2022.
Cleveland would figure to welcome interest in corner outfielder Eddie Rosario. He’s making $8MM, though, and wasn’t having a particularly good year even before landing on the 10-day injured list with an abdominal strain this week. The Indians have a handful of young relievers (James Karinchak, Emmanuel Clase, Nick Sandlin) who would figure to draw plenty of attention, but it’s not clear the team would consider moving any of them. Veteran relievers Nick Wittgren and Bryan Shaw would probably be more attainable but wouldn’t bring back franchise-altering returns.
More broadly, the Indians are facing an interesting few months as an organization. The controllable core of Ramírez, Bieber, Civale, Plesac and Franmil Reyes looks good enough to anchor a contender. They would obviously love for Andrés Giménez and Amed Rosario to produce enough to supplement that group. The farm system is regarded as one of the league’s best. It’s not inconceivable to see the Indians as a threat in the division in the coming years, even if the front office moves a couple veterans before the deadline in an acknowledgment of their increasingly slim playoff chances in 2021.
As the past few weeks have shown, though, there’s still plenty of work to be done to make the current roster a legitimate contender. The rotation is very strong at the top but the recent injury woes have exposed its lack of depth. The outfield has been a weak point for years. The catching duo of Roberto Pérez and Austin Hedges is a well-regarded defensive grouping but has offered virtually nothing at the plate, and the team’s first basemen have been the worst offensively in MLB this year. Giménez also struggled in his first crack at locking down shortstop.
There’s still a few weeks for president of baseball operations Chris Antonetti and the rest of the front office to settle on a pre-deadline plan. Even if they stand pat or serve as minor sellers, the upcoming offseason will be a pivotal one to determining the franchise’s long-term direction.
Indians Acquire Damon Casetta-Stubbs From Mariners To Complete Jake Bauers Trade
The Indians have acquired right-handed pitching prospect Damon Casetta-Stubbs from the Mariners, the two teams announced. The move completes the clubs’ June 10 deal that sent first baseman Jake Bauers to Seattle for a player to be named later.
Casetta-Stubbs was Seattle’s 11th-round draft pick in 2018 out of a Washington high school, signing for an overslot $325K bonus. He has spent the past three years in the low minors, topping out at High-A in 2019 but pitching in Low-A to this point in 2021. While he’s only managed a 6.42 ERA in 40 2/3 innings this year, the 21-year-old has struck out a lofty 31.2% of opposing hitters, far and away a career-best mark. Casetta-Stubbs has issued way too many walks (14.5%), but he’s also keeping the ball on the ground at stellar 56.2% clip.
The uptick in strikeouts doesn’t seem to be a coincidence. In mid-May, Eric Longenhagen of FanGraphs wrote that Casetta-Stubbs had improved his velocity from sitting in the low-90s to working in the 93-95 MPH range consistently. Longenhagen slotted Casetta-Stubbs as the #25 prospect in the Mariners system, suggesting he’s likely to wind up as a solid reliever at his peak based on his combination of quality stuff and subpar control. He’ll need to be added to the 40-man roster or made available in the Rule 5 draft after the 2022 season.
Bauers, meanwhile, has continued to struggle in Seattle after a poor start to the year with Cleveland. The left-handed hitter has taken 91 plate appearances as a Mariner, hitting .241/.290/.299 with a single home run.
Indians Release Rene Rivera
The Indians have released veteran catcher Rene Rivera, per the transactions log at MLB.com. Cleveland designated him for assignment this past weekend after activating Roberto Perez from the injured list.
Rivera, who’ll turn 38 at the end of the month, was signed to a minor league deal earlier this year and made his way to the big leagues when Perez first landed on the injured list. He logged 21 games behind the plate with Cleveland, batting .236/.300/.400 in 63 plate appearances. Rivera connected on a pair of homers and three doubles, but he also fanned in 24 of those 63 trips to the plate (38 percent).
The Indians currently have fellow veterans Ryan Lavarnway and Wilson Ramos (who recently signed with Cleveland) on their Triple-A roster, which left Rivera without much of an opportunity even in the upper minors. He’ll head back to the free-agent market and look for another opportunity. In parts of 13 seasons split between nine different clubs, Rivera is a .221/.273/.355 hitter who boasts an elite 36 percent caught-stealing rate and a generally strong defensive reputation (though his defensive marks were down during his brief Cleveland run).
Indians Activate Zach Plesac
The Indians are reinstating right-hander Zach Plesac from the 10-day injured list to start this evening’s game against the Royals, the team informed reporters (including Mandy Bell of MLB.com). Righty J.C. Mejia was optioned to Triple-A Columbus to create active roster space.
Plesac has missed about a month and a half since suffering a non-displaced fracture in his right thumb in late May. Before the injury, the 26-year-old had tossed 58 2/3 innings of 4.14 ERA/4.50 SIERA ball over his first ten starts. That’s a step back from the sterling 2.28 ERA/3.41 SIERA he pitched to over 55 1/3 frames in 2020, but it’s still solid production.
Cleveland hasn’t gotten much decent work from the starting staff in recent weeks. The Indians lost Shane Bieber and Aaron Civale to IL stints of their own after Plesac went down, leaving them relying on an unproven rotation. Over the past month, Indians starters have pitched to a woeful 7.16 ERA that bests only the Orioles rotation (8.40). That’s contributed to a significant drop in the standings, as the Indians are amidst a nine-game losing streak that has knocked them back to .500 (42-42), eight games behind the division-leading White Sox.
Mejia has been a big part of those struggles. Over his seven starts, the 24-year-old has given up 25 runs in 25 1/3 innings. It has also been a difficult season for Triston McKenzie, who has walked 20.6% of opposing hitters en route to a 6.38 ERA. That led the Indians to option McKenzie last month, but he’ll be recalled to start tomorrow evening’s game, relays Zack Meisel of the Athletic (Twitter link).
Indians Place Eddie Rosario On 10-Day IL, Select DJ Johnson
The Indians announced a series of moves prior to today’s doubleheader with the Rays, including the placement of outfielder Eddie Rosario on the 10-day injured list due to a right abdominal strain. Left-hander Logan Allen was also optioned to Triple-A. To fill these roster spots, the Tribe selected the contract of right-hander DJ Johnson from Triple-A and called up outfielder Daniel Johnson and infielder Owen Miller (for the doubleheader, Miller will serve as the 27th man). To create 40-man roster space for Johnson, Josh Naylor was shifted to the 60-day injured list in the wake of his recent leg surgery.
Rosario has been bothered by abdominal issues for the last week, and after he was an early removal from Monday’s game, an IL placement was deemed necessary to give the outfielder a chance to fully heal. With a .309/.330/.489 slash line over his last 100 plate appearances, Rosario is finally starting to heat up at the plate, and his absence will remove another bat from the struggling Cleveland lineup.
Signed to a one-year, $8MM free agent deal last winter, Rosario’s first two months with the Tribe were rough, resulting in an overall .254/.296/.389 slash line in 306 PA despite his success over the last four weeks. The dropoff in slugging is of particular concern, as Rosario was (if anything) a power-first player during the previous four seasons with the Twins. Since Rosario has never posted good hard-hit ball numbers or taken many walks, the lack of power has curtailed Rosario’s offensive production, though his numbers in June provide some hope that he can get on track in the second half of the season.
A platoon of Daniel Johnson and Oscar Mercado could be the Tribe’s top option to fill in for Rosario in the outfield, and even if Rosario is able to return from the IL pretty quickly, it’s fair to assume that Cleveland will continue to explore trading for an outfielder as the deadline approaches. The Indians are 42-40 but still within striking distance of the postseason, 6.5 games behind the White Sox in the AL Central and 4.5 games back of a wild card berth. Between a lack of hitting and a bunch of injuries within the rotation, however, the Cleveland front office has a lot of needs to address while at the same time keeping payroll in check and (as always) keeping an eye towards the future. If the team slumps over the next two weeks, the Tribe’s deadline activity is likely to lean more towards selling than buying, though the Indians have often tried to accomplish both goals in multi-player trades over the last few years.
DJ Johnson inked a minor league deal over the winter, and now looks on the verge of his first big league action since the 2019 season. After posting a 4.88 ERA over 31 1/3 innings with the Rockies in 2018-19, Johnson played in Japan in 2020, and was also in the mix for a spot on the U.S. Olympic baseball team at the upcoming Summer Games.
Indians Activate Roberto Perez, Designate Rene Rivera For Assignment
The Indians activated catcher Roberto Perez from the injured list and designated Rene Rivera for assignment, per MLB.com’s Mandy Ball (via Twitter).
Cleveland has been without their starting catcher since May 5th when a fracture of his ring finger sent Perez to the injured list. While Perez doesn’t produce much at the plate, he’s nevertheless been considered a core piece of the Indians’ roster for the way he handles the pitching staff. He has won a Gold Glove Award in each of the past two seasons. At the plate, he was hitting .131/.274/.295 over 73 plate appearances to start the year.
The veteran Rivera appeared in 21 games as coverage for Perez’s absence, slashing .236/.300/.400 in 63 plate appearances. The well-traveled veteran could be claimed by one of the other 29 teams, and if not, he’ll likely have the opportunity to accept an assignment to Triple-A or elect free agency.
Austin Hedges is firmly entrenched as the other piece of the Indians’ catching tandem, so Rivera isn’t likely to see the roster again in Cleveland unless there’s another injury. That said, Hedges has struggled at the plate as well, putting up a paltry .159/.213/.262 line across 139 trips.
Injured List Returns: Gregorius, Reyes, Gray
While top players continue to hit the injured list on a near-daily basis, several notable names also made their return to the field today. The latest…
- The Phillies activated shortstop Didi Gregorius off the 10-day injured list prior to today’s 4-3 victory over the Padres, with infielder Nick Maton heading to Triple-A in the corresponding move. Gregorius hadn’t played since May 12, as his initial right elbow injury was slow to heal, and led to a setback in his minor league rehab assignment. The veteran shortstop had hit only .229/.266/.364 in his first 128 plate appearances of the season, but Gregorius celebrated his return to the lineup with a solo home run and a walk in four PA tonight.
- Franmil Reyes was activated off the Indians‘ 10-day IL, and infielder Yu Chang was optioned to Triple-A. Reyes suffered an internal oblique strain on May 23, and he’ll return about halfway between his projected recovery timeline of 5-to-7 weeks. The struggling Cleveland lineup is in need of Reyes’ offensive production, and he picked up where he left off by collecting three hits in tonight’s 6-3 Tribe loss to the Astros. Reyes is now hitting .268/.325/.577 with 11 home runs over 163 PA.
- Sonny Gray tossed five innings of one-run ball (on five hits and one walk, with eight strikeouts) in the Reds‘ 2-1 victory over the Cubs. A right groin strain sidelined Gray on June 9, and his return will boost a Cincinnati team that is trying to stay close in the NL Central and NL wild card races. With tonight’s outing in the books, Gray has a 3.27 ERA and an impressive 30.8% strikeout rate over 55 innings this season. Right-hander Ashton Goudeau was optioned to Triple-A to create roster room for Gray’s activation off the 10-day IL.
Indians, Wilson Ramos Agree To Minor League Contract
The Indians and Wilson Ramos are in agreement on a minor league contract, Daniel Alvarez Montes of El Extra Base reports (via Twitter). Presumably, the Octagon client will head to Triple-A Columbus once the deal is formally announced.
Ramos, 34, inked a one-year deal worth $2MM with the Tigers over the winter and opened the season as their primary catcher, but his production crumbled after a hot start to the year. The former All-Star homered in six of his first nine games with the Tigers, batting .281/.343/.875 through his first 37 plate appearances with the club. He wasn’t able to sustain anywhere near that level of offensive output, however, and over his next 91 plate appearances the veteran slugger managed only a .170/.198/.216 batting line.
Ramos made two trips to the injured list due to back strains during his short time with the Tigers organization. He was designated for assignment upon being reinstated from his second IL stint, and he was released five days later after clearing waivers.
For several years, Ramos was regarded as one of the better-hitting catchers in the game. His peak performance, from 2016-18, saw him post a combined .298/.343/.483 slash in 1163 plate appearances. That offensive ability helped to balance out a dwindling defensive reputation, but in recent years, the downturn in his glovework has become more glaring as his offense has also begun to deteriorate. Ramos was a roughly league-average hitter in two seasons with the Mets but began to lose playing time to the defensively superior Tomas Nido. Over the past three seasons, Ramos carries just a 16 percent caught-stealing rate, sub-par framing metrics and an overall -16 mark in Defensive Runs Saved.
Ramos’ early surge in 2021 offered a glimpse of life in his bat, and he’s only a couple years removed from a .288/.351/.416 showing as the Mets’ primary catcher. The Indians are currently relying on the defensively strong but offensively challenged combination of Austin Hedges and Rene Rivera behind the plate; Ramos brings something of the opposite skill set to their depth chart, although it’s been a couple years since we’ve seen sustained production from him at the plate. Roberto Perez, the Indians’ starter behind the dish, has been out since early May after undergoing surgery to repair a broken finger, but he’s been working through a minor league rehab assignment and could return in the coming days.
Josh Naylor To Undergo Fibula Surgery
TODAY: Surgery is set for tomorrow to address “multiple fibula fractures and ligament tearing” in Naylor’s right leg (Ryan Lewis of The Akron Beacon Journal was among those to report the official diagnosis). A timetable will be known following the procedure, though it would certainly appear as though Naylor’s season is in jeopardy.
JUNE 28: Naylor has been diagnosed with a closed fracture and dislocation of his right ankle, tweets Meisel. He’s traveling back to Cleveland today for further testing and to determine a timetable for potential surgery.
JUNE 27, 4:20pm: Cleveland manager Terry Francona told reporters (including Zack Meisel of the Athletic) that Naylor has been diagnosed with some type of fracture. He’s under evaluation at a Minnesota hospital, and the team hopes to know more about his condition in the coming hours.
3:03pm: Indians corner outfielder/first baseman Josh Naylor injured his right leg in this afternoon’s game against the Twins. Playing right field, Naylor came in on a pursuit of a shallow fly ball off the bat of Jorge Polanco. He collided with second baseman Ernie Clement, who was tracking the ball over his head. Naylor was sent airborne and landed awkwardly on his right leg/ankle.
Naylor was in visible anguish as he was attended to by the training staff. His leg was immobilized and he was carted off the field, notes Do-Hyoung Park of MLB.com. There’s no official diagnosis as of yet, but all indications are that the 24-year-old suffered a serious injury of some sort.
Naylor has started 61 of Cleveland’s 72 games this season. The bulk of that time has come in right field, with occasional work at first base. Through 248 plate appearances, the left-handed hitter has slashed .255/.304/.403 with seven home runs.