2026-27 Club Options: AL Central
Last week, MLBTR began a division by division series looking at the club/mutual option decisions facing every team in the American League East. We’ll continue with a move to the AL Central. There aren’t a ton of notable decisions in this division, but the Tigers will have a couple — one involving their likely Hall of Fame closer.
Chicago White Sox
- Austin Hays, OF: $8MM mutual option ($1MM buyout)
Hays signed a $6MM free agent guarantee with the White Sox over the offseason. He’s making a $5MM salary and will collect a $1MM buyout on an $8MM mutual option for 2027. That’s an accounting measure designed to delay paying the final million until the end of the season. This is essentially a one-year deal.
The righty-swinging Hays has worked mostly in a platoon capacity over the past few seasons. He signed with Chicago largely because he felt they offered the best path to everyday playing time. Hays started slowly, striking out 12 times in his first nine games. He landed on the injured list with a strained right hamstring and missed three weeks.
The Sox activated him on Monday but have turned left field over to rookie Sam Antonacci in the interim. With Everson Pereira out to a nice start in the opposite corner, Hays is probably back in a fourth outfield role.
Cleveland Guardians
- Shawn Armstrong, RHP: $8MM mutual option ($1.5MM buyout)
Cleveland reunited with Armstrong on a one-year, $5.5MM contract in free agency. The veteran reliever is making $4MM this year and guaranteed a $1.5MM buyout on an $8MM mutual option.
The Guardians are likely to decline their end even if Armstrong pitches up to expectations. He’ll be entering his age-36 season and doesn’t have the power arsenal that usually pays in free agency. Armstrong’s fastball sits around 93 mph and he has never had huge swinging strike rates. He’s more of a command-oriented reliever, though he has walked seven batters over his first 10 2/3 frames this season.
Armstrong has had a tougher time getting hitters to expand the strike zone, leading to the uptick in free passes. He has given up five runs but has fanned 13 of 47 batters faced. He has three holds while working in mostly medium leverage situations. Armstrong landed on the injured list on Monday with a right groin strain.
- Emmanuel Clase, RHP: $10MM club option ($2MM buyout)
Clase is on unpaid non-administrative leave pending the investigation into an alleged game-fixing scheme. He’s not making his $6MM salary this year, nor does it seem likely he’ll collect the $2MM option buyout.
- Trevor Stephan, RHP: $7.25MM club option ($1.25MM buyout)
Stephan’s career has unfortunately gone off the rails since he underwent Tommy John surgery in March 2024. His velocity was down three miles per hour when he returned, and Triple-A hitters teed off for 22 runs in 17 innings last year. Cleveland dropped Stephan from their 40-man roster in August. He made four appearances this spring but was working with even lesser velocity than he had last summer, sitting at just 90.7 mph after throwing 95-96 early during his early-career days as a setup arm. The Guardians haven’t assigned him to a minor league affiliate. This is an easy buyout.
Detroit Tigers
- Drew Anderson: $10MM club option (no buyout)
Detroit brought Anderson back to the organization after a season and a half in Korea. The right-hander was second among KBO pitchers with 245 strikeouts a year ago, partially because he added a “kick-changeup” he hadn’t fully trusted during his last stint in affiliated ball. The Tigers guaranteed him $7MM with a $10MM club option.
The righty was initially expected to compete for a rotation spot. That changed after the Framber Valdez and Justin Verlander signings. Anderson began the season in long relief. It has been an erratic start, as he has allowed 11 runs through his first 15 innings. Anderson has recorded 17 strikeouts but has walked eight batters and surrendered three home runs. Detroit opted to give Keider Montero a rotation spot when Verlander went down with a hip injury.
There’s still a chance for Anderson to make some starts throughout the season. He’ll at least provide some swing-and-miss upside to a bullpen that lacks that element. It’s too early to have a definitive call on the option, but the early showing points toward it being declined.
- Kenley Jansen: $12MM club option ($2MM buyout)
Coming off a quietly excellent season with the Angels, Jansen signed for $11MM with Detroit. He’s making $9MM this season and has a $2MM buyout on a $12MM team option, making it a $10MM call for the front office. That’s a reasonable enough sum that the Tigers would probably exercise it with a typical Jansen year.
The four-time All-Star is 6-8 in save opportunities so far. Seven of his nine appearances have been scoreless. Detroit has taken the loss in the other two — both of which came on go-ahead home runs (to Jose Fernandez and Nathaniel Lowe, respectively). Tigers president of baseball operations Scott Harris pointed to the still strong swing-and-miss numbers on Jansen’s cutter at the time of the signing. He’s missing bats at the same rate as he did last year and has the second-highest strikeout rate (28.1%) in the Detroit bullpen. If the home runs turn out to a blip, this should get picked up.
Kansas City Royals
- Carlos Estévez, RHP: $13MM club option ($2MM buyout)
The first season of Estévez’s two-year, $22MM free agent deal with Kansas City was a success. He led MLB with 42 saves while matching his career low with a 2.45 ERA across 66 innings. Estévez’s personal-low 20.1% strikeout rate and 8.2% swinging strike mark were red flags, but he entered this spring with a clear hold on the closer role.
Estévez hasn’t looked the same in 2026. His velocity was way down both during Spring Training and in the World Baseball Classic. The Royals expressed some optimism that’d come with more adrenaline during regular season play. It didn’t happen during his debut, as the two-time All-Star’s fastball averaged just 91.2 mph after sitting around 96 a year ago. His slider and changeup also had precipitous drops. Estévez retired just one of seven batters in a meltdown loss to the Braves that culminated in a Dominic Smith walk-off grand slam.
After the game, the Royals placed Estévez on the injured list with a left foot contusion. He sustained that injury during the March 28 appearance against Atlanta, as he took a Michael Harris II comebacker off his foot. That doesn’t explain why the stuff was so poor during camp, though it has given the Royals a month and counting to hopefully get him right.
Coming into the year, the Royals probably anticipated exercising this option. That’s much tougher to see unless they find some kind of mechanical tweak that gets him back into the mid-90s.
Minnesota Twins
- Josh Bell, 1B: $10MM mutual option ($1.25MM buyout)
Minnesota signed Bell to a $7MM free agent guarantee over the winter. That includes a $1.25MM buyout on a $10MM mutual option. Bell’s first month in the Twin Cities has been a microcosm of his last few years. He came out on fire, hitting .317 with three home runs through his first 13 games. He’s hitting .180 with just one extra-base hit (a double) over his past 16 outings. The end result is a league average .235/.331/.373 line through his first 118 plate appearances. Each Bell season has big highs and very tough lows, though they all tend to conclude with slightly above-average offensive production overall.
Bell is a low-end regular at this stage of his career. The Twins — or a potential taker at the trade deadline — are likely to pass on their end of the option. If he does get traded, Minnesota might need to cover a portion of the buyout, as he’d otherwise cost an accruing team nearly $3MM for the final two months of the season.
- Justin Topa, RHP: $5MM mutual option ($250K buyout)
Topa and the Twins built a $5MM mutual option into his agreement to avoid arbitration last November. He has played on salaries just above $1MM throughout his arbitration window. Topa gets ground-balls but has the American League’s lowest swinging strike rate (3.8%) and has battled injuries throughout his career. The Twins are likely to pass on their end.
Joe Ryan’s arbitration deal includes a $13MM mutual option ($100K buyout) for 2027. He’d remain under club control if the option is declined and won’t hit free agency until the 2027-28 offseason.
Guardians Outright Trevor Stephan
The Guardians passed right-handed reliever Trevor Stephan through outright waivers and assigned him to Triple-A Columbus, per Tim Stebbins of MLB.com. That removes him from the 40-man roster, but Stephan will remain with the organization.
While Stephan could have rejected the assignment, doing so would’ve meant forfeiting the remainder of this season’s $2.3MM salary, all of next year’s $3.5MM salary and the $1.25MM buyout on his 2027 club option. Stephan is about a month shy of reaching the necessary service time to reject an outright assignment in favor of free agency but still retain his salary.
The now-29-year-old was a breakout reliever for the 2022 Guardians, tossing 63 2/3 innings with a 2.69 ERA, 30.7% strikeout rate, 6.7% walk rate and 19 holds. Cleveland signed him to a four-year, $10MM extension with a pair of club options prior to the 2023 season. He tallied 28 holds that year but saw his rate stats and velocity dip. In spring of 2024, Stephan was diagnosed with a torn ulnar collateral ligament and underwent Tommy John surgery. He’s yet to make it back to a major league mound.
Stephan has had his rehab assignment stopped and restarted a couple times this summer. Cleveland activated him from the 60-day IL in late July and optioned him to Columbus. He’s pitched 13 2/3 innings in the minors this year and been rocked for a 9.22 ERA, although nine of the runs against him came in a brutal pair of back-to-back outings around the All-Star break. Over his past five appearances, Stephan has looked more like himself. He’s tossed five shutout frames and fanned five opponents — albeit with four walks issued in that time as well.
Stephan’s outright is the latest in an overhaul of a Cleveland bullpen that looked almost unbeatable when he and Emmanuel Clase were regularly handling the eighth and ninth innings. Stephan’s future is at least somewhat up in the air, in light of his injuries and struggles during rehab work, while Clase’s outlook is even cloudier. He’s been on administrative leave since July 28 in connection with an MLB investigation into violations of the league’s sports-betting policy. Clase and teammate Luis Ortiz are on leave through Aug. 31, though if the investigation hasn’t concluded at that point, the leave can be extended even further.
Righties Cade Smith and Hunter Gaddis now stand as the top two leverage options in manager Stephen Vogt‘s bullpen.
Guardians Claim Carlos Hernandez
The Guardians claimed right-hander Carlos Hernandez off waivers from the Tigers, according to MLB.com’s Tim Stebbins. Detroit designated Hernandez for assignment last week. Cleveland also activated reliever Trevor Stephan from the 60-day injured list and optioned him to Triple-A.
The veteran reliever has now changed teams via waiver claim for the third time in a little over four months. Hernandez had spent his entire career in the Royals organization before the Phillies claimed him away in March, then the Tigers plucked him off the waiver wire in mid-June. Both of those teams gave Hernandez some action at the MLB level, and the righty has a 6.69 ERA over 36 1/3 combined innings with Philadelphia (25 games) and Detroit (11 games).
Hernandez’s 20.5% strikeout rate and 10.8% walk rate this year are pretty close to his career marks over six Major League seasons, and Hernandez has a career 5.17 ERA in 292 2/3 innings. Now out of minor league options, Hernandez can’t be assigned to the minors without first being exposed to waivers, hence his increasingly frequent trips to DFA limbo.
He does have two years of arbitration control remaining, and teams have been interested enough in his stuff to add him on multiple claims now, with the Guardians being the latest to see if Hernandez can offer more with a change of scenery. Cleveland’s pitching development system could perhaps unlock something in the right-hander, who is still only 28 years old. Owed just the remainder of a $1.16MM salary for 2025, Hernandez is a pretty inexpensive depth arm to the Guardians’ bullpen.
Guardians Select Will Wilson
The Guardians announced that they have selected the contract of infielder Will Wilson. He will take the active roster spot of outfielder Lane Thomas, who has been placed on the 10-day injured list with a bone bruise in his right wrist, retroactive to April 20. To open a 40-man spot for Wilson, right-hander Trevor Stephan has been transferred to the 60-day IL.
Thomas has been dealing with the wrist issue for a quite a while, as he was hit by a pitch in that area back on April 8th (video from MLB.com). He wasn’t immediately placed on the IL but didn’t play again for about a week, as he entered the April 15th contest as a pinch hitter. He then started the April 16-18 contests and entered the game on April 19th as a pinch hitter again, but hasn’t appeared in the club’s past two games.
The fact that he wasn’t immediately placed on the IL suggests it’s not a major injury but it’s possible it has been contributing to his awful season, as he currently sports a line of .156/.188/.178 on the year. It seems a decision has been made to let him heal up for a week or so, as opposed to continuing to play through it with poor results.
That will allow Wilson to get to the majors for the first time, which has been a winding road. He was a first round pick of the Angels in 2019, getting selected 15th overall and signing a $3.4MM bonus. Just a few months later, in December of 2019, he was flipped to the Giants in what was essentially a salary dump deal. The Giants took on infielder Zack Cozart, who was owed $12.67MM for the 2020 season, in order to acquire Wilson. The Angels received a player to be named later, whom was later named as left-hander Garrett Williams, and then quickly signed Anthony Rendon to a seven-year $245MM deal to replace Cozart at third base.
The Giants released Cozart a month later, clearly signaling that they only took on his deal as a means of acquiring Wilson, but that didn’t work out for them. Wilson stalled out in the upper levels of the minor leagues. Over 2023 and 2024, he split his time between Double-A and Triple-A but hit just .222/.297/.346 for a wRC+ of 76. His stock had fallen enough that the Giants left him unprotected in the minor league phase of the Rule 5 draft in December, when the Guardians snatched him up.
He’s out to a strong start with his new club, as he has slashed .324/.418/.647 in 18 Triple-A games thus far. Part of that is a .340 batting average on balls in play but he’s also drawing walks at a 12.7% clip and only striking out at a 19% pace. He’s done that while playing mostly third base but also some shortstop and second base.
He won’t directly replace Thomas, who was previously the club’s center fielder, but he will give the club an extra body as they move some versatile pieces around. Utility players like Ángel Martínez and Daniel Schneemann can help cover center while Wilson can perhaps take over as the resident depth infielder for now.
As for Stephan, he underwent Tommy John surgery in March of last year and started this year on the 15-day IL. His current status is unknown but it appears the Guards don’t expect him back before late May, based on this transfer.
Photo courtesy of Samantha Madar, Imagn Images.
Players Who Could Move To The 60-Day IL Once Spring Training Begins
Most of the clubs in the league currently have a full 40-man roster, which means that just about every transaction requires a corresponding move these days. Some extra roster flexibility is on the way, however. The 60-day injured list goes away five days after the World Series but comes back when pitchers and catchers report to spring training.
Per R.J. Anderson of CBS Sports, most clubs have a report date of February 12th or 13th. The Cubs and Dodgers are a bit earlier than most, on the 9th and 11th, respectively. That’s due to the fact that those clubs are heading to Tokyo, with exhibition games in mid-March, followed by regular season games against each other on March 18th and 19th. All the other teams have Opening Day scheduled for March 27th.
It’s worth pointing out that the 60 days don’t start being counted until Opening Day. Although a team can transfer a player to the 60-day IL quite soon, they will likely only do so if they aren’t expecting the player back until end of May or later. A team also must have a full 40-man roster in order to move a player to the 60-day IL.
There are still plenty of free agents still out there, including big names like Alex Bregman and Pete Alonso, as well as Nick Pivetta, Andrew Heaney, David Robertson, Randal Grichuk, Kenley Jansen, Harrison Bader, Lance Lynn, Jose Quintana and many more. Perhaps the extra roster flexibility will spur some deals to come together in the next week or so. It could also increase the ability of some clubs to make waiver claims or small trades for players who have been designated for assignment.
Here are some players who are expected to miss some significant time and could find themselves transferred soon.
Angels: Robert Stephenson
Stephenson underwent a hybrid Tommy John surgery with internal brace in late April. Given the 14-plus months required to recovery from such a procedure, he’s not likely to be ready in the early parts of the 2025 season.
Astros: Cristian Javier, J.P. France, Bennett Sousa
Javier underwent Tommy John surgery in June and is targeting a return in the second half of 2025. France is recovering from shoulder surgery and hoping to return in July. Sousa’s timeline is less clear but he underwent surgery for thoracic outlet syndrome in April. Other possibilities include Luis Garcia and Lance McCullers Jr., who are expected to start the season on the IL but returning in April or May still seems possible.
Athletics: Luis Medina, Ken Waldichuk
Medina underwent Tommy John surgery in August and Waldichuk in May. Medina might miss the entire season while Waldichuk is likely to miss a few months at least.
Blue Jays: Angel Bastardo, Alek Manoah
The Jays grabbed Bastardo from the Red Sox in the Rule 5 draft in December, even though he had Tommy John surgery in June. Manoah also had Tommy John around that time and is hoping to be back by August.
Braves: Joe Jiménez
Jimenez had knee surgery in November with a timeline of eight to twelve months, so he might miss the entire season. Spencer Strider and Ronald Acuña Jr. are also possibilities, though those will be more borderline. Strider had internal brace surgery in April, so returning in May is somewhat possible. Acuña is recovering from a torn ACL last year and it’s possible he’ll miss the first month or so of the season. Given how important both of those players are, Atlanta probably won’t put them on the 60-day IL unless it’s 100% certain that they can’t come back in the first 60 days of the season.
Brewers: Robert Gasser
Gasser had Tommy John surgery in June and will be looking at a late 2025 return even in a best-case scenario.
Diamondbacks: Kyle Nelson
Nelson’s timeline is unclear, but he underwent surgery for thoracic outlet syndrome in May and missed the remainder of the 2024 season.
Dodgers: Gavin Stone, Brusdar Graterol, River Ryan, Kyle Hurt, Emmet Sheehan
Stone underwent shoulder surgery in October that will cause him to miss the entire year. Graterol also underwent shoulder surgery and isn’t expected back until the second half of 2025. Each of Ryan, Hurt and Sheehan required Tommy John surgery in 2024: Ryan in August, Hurt in July and Sheehan in May.
Guardians: Sam Hentges, David Fry, Shane Bieber, Trevor Stephan
Hentges required shoulder surgery in September, with an expected recovery timeline of 12 to 14 months. Fry underwent UCL surgery in November with a more fluid timeline. He won’t be able to throw at all in 2025 but could be cleared for designated hitter action six to eight months from that surgery. Bieber is perhaps a borderline case, as he underwent Tommy John surgery in April. Given his importance, the Guards may not transfer him to the 60-day IL until it’s assured that he won’t be back in the first 60 days of the season. Stephan underwent Tommy John surgery in March and perhaps has a chance to avoid the 60-day IL, depending on his progression.
Mariners: Matt Brash, Jackson Kowar
Brash underwent Tommy John surgery in May. Given the typical 14-month recovery timeline from that procedure, he would be looking at a midsummer return. However, it was reported in November that he’s ahead of schedule and could be back by the end of April. That’s an optimistic timeline but the Mariners will probably hold off moving him to the 60-day IL until the door is closed to an early return. Kowar underwent Tommy John in March, so an early return in 2025 is possible for him, depending on how his recovery is going.
Marlins: Braxton Garrett, Eury Pérez
Garrett just underwent UCL surgery last month and is going to miss the entire 2025 season. Pérez underwent Tommy John surgery in April of last year and will miss at least part of the beginning of the 2025 campaign.
Mets: Christian Scott
Scott required a Tommy John surgery and internal brace hybrid procedure in September and will likely miss the entire 2025 season.
Nationals: Josiah Gray, Mason Thompson
Gray required a Tommy John surgery and internal brace hybrid procedure in July, meaning he’ll miss most or perhaps all of the 2025 season. Thompson required Tommy John surgery in March, so he has a better chance to make an early-season return if his recovery is going well.
Orioles: Kyle Bradish, Tyler Wells
Bradish and Wells each required UCL surgery in June, so they’re both slated to miss the first half of the upcoming campaign.
Padres: Joe Musgrove
Musgrove had Tommy John surgery in October and will therefore miss the entire 2025 season. However, the Padres only have 36 guys on their 40-man roster at the moment, so they’ll need to fill those spots before moving Musgrove to the 60-day IL.
Pirates: Dauri Moreta
Moreta required UCL surgery in March, so an early-season return is possible if his rehab is going well, though he could end up on the 60-day if the club goes easy with his ramp-up or he suffers any kind of setback.
Rangers: Josh Sborz
Sborz underwent shoulder surgery in November and is expected to miss the first two to three months of the upcoming season.
Rays: Nate Lavender, Ha-Seong Kim
The Rays took Lavender from the Mets in the Rule 5 draft, even though he had Tommy John in May and will miss the start of the season. Kim’s status is more up in the air after he had shoulder surgery in October. Various reports have suggested he could return anywhere from April to July. The Rays made a sizable investment in Kim, their largest ever for a position player, so they probably won’t shelve him until they get more clarity on his status.
Red Sox: Patrick Sandoval, Garrett Whitlock, Chris Murphy
Sandoval had internal brace surgery in June of last year and should miss the first half of the season. Whitlock had the same surgery in May, so he could have a bit of a better chance to return in the first 60 days of the season. Murphy underwent a fully Tommy John surgery in April and will certainly miss the beginning of the upcoming season. Another possibility is Lucas Giolito, who had internal brace surgery in March, though he expects to be ready by Opening Day.
Reds: Julian Aguiar, Brandon Williamson
Aguiar underwent Tommy John surgery in October and Williamson in September, so both are likely slated to miss the entire 2025 season.
Tigers: Sawyer Gipson-Long
Gipson-Long underwent internal brace surgery in April. On top of that, he underwent left hip labral repair surgery in July, with the club hoping to address both issues at the same time. It seems likely that he’ll miss some of the early 2025 schedule, but his IL placement will depend on how he’s been progressing.
White Sox: Jesse Scholtens
Scholtens underwent Tommy John surgery in early March. Whether he goes on the 60-day IL or not will depend on how he’s progressed since then and when the White Sox expect him back.
Yankees: Jonathan Loáisiga
Loáisiga underwent internal brace surgery in April, so he could potentially be back on the mound early in the 2025 season. It was reported in December that the Yankees are expecting him to be in the bullpen by late April or early May, so he’ll only end up on the 60-day IL if he suffers a bit of a setback.
Trevor Stephan, Daniel Espino Require Surgery; Gavin Williams To Open Season On IL
Guardians setup man Trevor Stephan will be undergoing a UCL reconstruction procedure (i.e. Tommy John surgery) within the next seven to 14 days, the team announced. Cleveland had shut Stephan down for three weeks in late February, but the discomfort in his arm persisted and subsequent testing has revealed that his ulnar collateral ligament is “not providing adequate stability.”
There’s further discouraging news on righty Daniel Espino — formerly one of the top prospects in all of baseball. The 23-year-old righty, who missed the entire 2023 season due to a capsule tear that required shoulder surgery, underwent a second shoulder procedure yesterday — this one to repair new capsule damage as well as his rotator cuff. He’s expected to miss the entire 2024 season, though an exact timetable on his recovery isn’t yet known, per the team.
In addition to that pair of injuries, starting pitcher Gavin Williams will begin the season on the injured list, tweets Mandy Bell of MLB.com. He’s been slowed by some discomfort in his right elbow this spring. A recent MRI came back clean, but he’ll go another four days before he resumes his throwing program and will need to build back up from there. By that point, he’ll be about two weeks removed from his last game action.
If that’s not enough bad news for Guards fans, Bell adds that lefty Sam Hentges is headed to have some swelling in his finger checked out. There’s no indication that’s a serious issue, but it’s yet another health situation for the team (and fans) to monitor for now.
The 28-year-old Stephan has proven to be one of the best Rule 5 selections by any team in recent memory. Taken out of the Yankees organization prior to the 2021 campaign, he’s logged 63 or more innings in each of his three seasons in Cleveland. Stephan owns six saves and 50 holds over that stretch, having climbed the ladder from low-leverage and mop-up settings to a prominent late-inning piece in each of the Guards’ past two seasons.
From 2022-23, Stephan tossed 132 1/3 innings of 3.40 ERA ball with a stout 28% strikeout rate and better-than average walk and ground-ball rates of 7.8% and 44.6%, respectively. Fielding-independent metrics like FIP (2.90) and SIERA (3.18) feel he’s been even better than his already sharp earned run average.
Stephan signed a four-year, $10MM contract extension covering the 2023-26 seasons last spring. That deal includes club options for both the 2027 and 2028 seasons as well. He’ll be paid $1.6MM this year as he rehabs throughout what would otherwise have been his first arbitration season. He’s guaranteed salaries of $2.3MM in 2025 and $3.5MM in 2026 before the team must decide between a $7.25MM club option of $1.25MM buyout for the 2027 season. If Cleveland picks that option up, they’ll have a $7.5MM option for the 2028 campaign as well. There’s no buyout on that second option.
With Stephan now ticketed for the 60-day injured list, the Guardians will lean on trade acquisition Scott Barlow as the primary setup man to All-Star closer Emmanuel Clase. Righties Eli Morgan and Nick Sandlin will also be in the mix for leverage spots, as will Hentges, assuming his finger injury doesn’t prove to be something serious. It’s possible the Guardians could look outside the organization for some additional arms to join the fray, though that’d likely come via waivers or perhaps a DFA trade late in camp. The free agent market for bullpen arms has been largely picked over, and Cleveland clearly didn’t have much money to spend this winter, making it seem unlikely that any additional salary will be added.
The news on Williams also carries immediate impact for Cleveland. While there’s no indication he’s dealing with a significant injury or facing a long-term absence, it seems he’ll miss at least a couple starts to begin the year. The 24-year-old ranked among MLB’s top pitching prospects prior to making his debut in 2023, and he lived up to that billing with 82 innings of 3.29 ERA ball during a sharp rookie campaign.
Williams’ 23.5% strikeout rate was narrowly above average, while his 10.7% walk rate is a bit inflated and could stand to improve a couple ticks. That shaky command prompted metrics like FIP (4.05) and SIERA (4.61) to take a more bearish outlook. Still, Williams throws hard, misses bats at average or better levels and limited hard contact rather nicely as well (88 mph average exit velocity, 38.6% hard-hit rate). There’s plenty to like about his outlook moving forward, and his presence alongside fellow sophomores Tanner Bibee and Logan Allen has the makings of the next wave of impressive homegrown talent from Cleveland’s unrivaled pitching development pipeline.
Espino, 23, once shined brightest among that incredible stock of young pitchers in the Cleveland system, but injuries have completely derailed his trajectory. Beyond what will now be a two-year absence from the mound due to multiple shoulder surgeries, Espino was also limited to just 18 innings in 2022. That year included a monthslong stay on the injured list due to tendinitis in his knee, as well as a second absence surrounding shoulder pain that has now clearly spiraled into an overwhelmingly problematic issue. Prior to the injury deluge, Espino dazzled scouts with a triple-digit fastball, plus or better slider and two other pitches — changeup, curveball — that projected to be at least average offerings.
On the one hand, Espino has youth on his side. On the other, consecutive missed seasons due to shoulder surgeries is a massive roadblock for any pitcher to overcome. His last procedure came with a timetable of 12 to 14 months. A similar or even lengthier timetable could push him deeper into the 2025 season. By that point, Espino will have thrown just 18 innings over a four-year period. The obvious hope is that he can put all these injuries behind him and eventually reach the majors, even if in a shorter relief role to help mitigate some workload concerns, but injury troubles of this magnitude are hard to overcome.
As for Hentges, he might not be a household name but he’s a credit to Cleveland’s pitching development himself. The 2014 fourth-rounder was hit hard as a starter in his debut campaign back in ’21 but has since emerged as one of the team’s top relievers. From 2022-23, he’s pitched 114 1/3 innings with an excellent 2.91 ERA, a very strong 27.4% strikeout rate, a better-than-average 7.9% walk rate and a sensational 60.1% grounder rate.
Guardians Shut Trevor Stephan Down For Three Weeks
The Guardians have shut setup man Trevor Stephan down for the next three weeks due to a deep bone bruise in his right elbow, manager Stephen Vogt announced to reporters this morning (X link via Mandy Bell of MLB.com). There’s no concern about Stephan’s ulnar collateral ligament or any structural damage in his elbow, Vogt added.
A three-week shutdown for Stephan makes a potential season-opening stint on the injured list a strong possibility — if not a likelihood. Opening Day is just one month away, and it seems as though Stephan won’t pick up a ball until we’re around eight days out from that point.
Stephan, 28, was a Rule 5 pick out of the Yankees organization heading into the 2021 season and has proven to be one of the most shrewd Rule 5 selections by any team in recent seasons. He’s pitched at least 63 innings out of the Cleveland ‘pen in each of the past three seasons, saved six games and piled up 50 holds in that time. Stephan moved from low-stakes outings into a high-leverage role in 2022, and over the past two seasons he’s given the Guards 132 1/3 innings of 3.40 ERA ball with even better marks from metrics like FIP (2.90) and SIERA (3.18) thanks in large part to his excellent rate stats. Since 2022, Stephan has whiffed 28% of his opponents against a 7.8% walk rate while keeping the ball on the ground at a solid 44.6% clip.
Stephan is less than two weeks into his spring training and will now be shut down for at least 21 days. He’ll effectively be starting his spring over whenever he does resume throwing. If there are no further setbacks and the issue heals within the provided three-week window, there’s a chance he could still ramp up and be back with the big league club before the end of April, but only time will tell how his elbow mends.
Assuming Stephan is indeed out to begin the season, trade acquisition Scott Barlow will likely step up as the primary setup man to closer Emmanuel Clase. James Karinchak, Sam Hentges, Eli Morgan and Nick Sandlin could all see some extra leverage situations early in the 2024 campaign as well. In general, the Guardians have a deep bullpen that can absorb a relatively short absence for one of its top relievers to begin the season.
The depth of that relief corps is perhaps one reason the team at least listened to trade offers on Clase back in December, but a deal never seemed likely due to the closer’s remaining five years of affordable control under the terms of the extension he signed in 2022. Clase is guaranteed just $15MM over the next three seasons and, via a pair of club options, could earn a total of $33MM from 2024-28. Given that affordable deal, the asking price in a trade was always going to be enormous — and thus unlikely to be met. That’s become even more true as the season has drawn nearer, and an injury to Stephan even further reduces what was already a minuscule chance of a deal coming together.
Guardians, Trevor Stephan Agree To Four-Year Extension
MARCH 30, 1:15pm: Zach Meisel of The Athletic provides the full breakdown. Stephen will make $1.35MM this year, $1.6MM next year, $2.3MM in 2025 and $3.5MM in 2026. There’s a $1.25MM buyout on the 2027 option.
MARCH 30, 7:08am: Robert Murray of FanSided reports that Stephan’s extension is worth $10MM, with a $7.25MM club option in 2027 and a $7.5MM club option in 2028.
MARCH 29: Cleveland and Stephan have agreed to a four-year guarantee with a pair of club options, reports Paul Hoynes of Cleveland.com. Finances remain unreported.
MARCH 28: The Guardians have already agreed to one extension today, and they’re making progress on a deal with right-handed reliever Trevor Stephan as well, reports Tom Withers of the Associated Press. Cleveland currently controls the 27-year-old Stephan for another four seasons. He’s not scheduled to reach arbitration until next offseason. The Athletic’s Zack Meisel reported earlier today that Cleveland was in “advanced” extension talks with multiple players.
One of the most successful Rule 5 picks in recent memory, Stephan emerged for the Guardians as a high-caliber setup option this past season when he tossed 63 2/3 innings of 2.69 ERA ball. That mark was backed up by a 2.19 FIP and 2.55 SIERA. The former Yankees farmhand punched out a hefty 30.7% of his opponents against a tidy 6.7% walk rate and induced grounders at an above-average 48.1% clip.
Drilling down even further, there’s far more to like about Stephan. His 16.2% swinging-strike rate was the 14th-best mark among the 273 pitchers who tossed at least 60 innings in 2022 (starters and relievers alike). He was also better than average in terms of opponents’ exit velocity (87.5 mph average) and hard-hit rate (34.4%), and his 3.1% opponents’ barrel rate was among the very best in all of baseball (98th percentile).
Stephan averaged just under 97 mph with his heater, missed bats, limited walks and hard contact and kept the ball both in the park (0.42 HR/9) and on the ground last year. Along the way, he picked up 19 holds and three saves. He’s now expected to be among the top setup options for All-Star closer Emmanuel Clase, and Stephan would perhaps be first in line for ninth-inning work in the event of an injury to Clase.
Guardians Discussing Extensions With Multiple Players
The Guardians are “in advanced negotiations” with multiple players on extensions, reports Zack Meisel of The Athletic. It’s unclear which players are involved in those deep talks, but Meisel reports that the club has had at least some conversations with infielders Andrés Giménez and Amed Rosario, outfielder Steven Kwan, as well as right-handers Triston McKenzie and Trevor Stephan.
It seems talks with Gimenez are particularly advanced, as he’s now reportedly finalizing a long-term deal with the Guards. It was already known that Cleveland has also discussed an extension with Rosario, who’ll be a free agent next winter. Talks with Kwan, McKenzie and Stephan are new developments, though hardly surprising given the quality of each young player and the fact that president of baseball operations Chris Antonetti recently indicated he had multiple irons in the fire on the extension front.
Kwan, 25, made his big league debut just last season and parlayed a terrific .298/.373/.400 batting line (124 wRC+) into a third-place finish in Rookie of the Year voting. While he’s light on power (six home runs, .101 ISO), Kwan walked more often than he struck out (9.7% vs. 9.4%), swiped 19 bags in 24 tries (79.2%) and played exceptional defense in left field (21 Defensive Runs Saved, 10 Outs Above Average).
Cleveland already controls Kwan all the way through 2027, his age-29 season, so any long-term deal would surely prolong his arrival on the open market by at least a year — and quite likely by multiple years. That’d put him in his early 30s by the time he could test free agency, but there’s surely some appeal in locking in an early payday, particularly given his relatively humble draft status (fifth-round pick, $185K signing bonus) and the fact that the arbitration system won’t reward his contact-and-defense skill set in the same way it would a prototypical slugging corner outfielder.
McKenzie’s extension status could potentially be impacted by recent injury troubles. The Guardians announced yesterday that he’s suffered a teres major strain and will be shut down from throwing for at least two weeks. An absence of as many as eight weeks in total is expected.
That’s an unequivocal blow to the Cleveland rotation, as the 25-year-old McKenzie made good on his former top prospect status in 2022 when he pitched 191 1/3 innings of 2.96 ERA ball with a strong 25.6% strikeout rate against a similarly impressive 5.9% walk rate. Home runs were an issue for McKenzie early on, but over his final 17 starts he averaged just 0.73 long balls per nine frames, compiling a dominant 2.19 ERA along the way.
Cleveland has four more seasons of control over McKenzie, who won’t be eligible for arbitration until after the 2023 season. Currently, Blake Snell‘s $50MM extension is the largest ever signed by a pitcher with between two and three years of Major League service time. (Although Spencer Strider topped that mark last summer when he had less than one full year of service.)
As a 27-year-old reliever, Stephan would be perhaps the riskiest but also surely the most affordable of this bunch. He won’t reach arbitration until next offseason but has quickly ascended from Rule 5 flier out of the Yankees’ system to a tried-and-true setup option for All-Star closer Emmanuel Clase.
Stephan had a solid rookie campaign, lasting the entire season in 2021 (and thus shedding his Rule 5 designation) while pitching 63 1/3 innings of 4.41 ERA ball. His command and bat-missing abilities took huge steps forward in 2022, evidenced by a 30.7% strikeout rate and 6.7% walk rate. That helped Stephan break out with a shiny 2.69 ERA that was reinforced by a 2.19 FIP and 2.55 SIERA. He picked up 19 holds and three saves, and he’ll head into the 2023 season as one of the bullpen’s top high-leverage options.
Extensions for relief pitchers are rare in general — and that’s even more true of pitchers so early in their arbitration years. The Mariners managed to lock up Andres Munoz on a four-year, $7.5MM deal when he was at a comparable service point, but he was coming off Tommy John surgery and faced considerable health risks. Jose Leclerc inked a four-year, $14.75MM extension that contained a pair of club options. That might be a more apt comp for Stephan, but by that point he’d already taken over as the Rangers’ closer — a role that Stephan won’t be occupying in Cleveland thanks to the presence of Clase. Broadly speaking, there’s no great, recent parallel for a Stephan extension, though that hardly means he and the Guardians can’t hammer out an arrangement that’s appealing for both parties.
The Guardians’ Former Rule 5 Breakout Reliever
The Guardians surprised a number of onlookers with their run to an AL Central title last season. Among the reasons for that success: a bullpen that was one of the league’s most effective. Cleveland relievers finished fifth in ERA (3.05), sixth in strikeout percentage (26.4%) and fourth in ground-ball rate (46.4%).
Some of that excellent rate production was a byproduct of a strong rotation that consistently worked deeper into games than most. Cleveland relievers finished just 26th in innings pitched. A reliable starting staff no doubt took some of the pressure off manager Terry Francona and the top late-game weapons at his disposal.
That’s not to take anything away from the coaching staff or the relievers overall, however. Cleveland had eight relievers who threw 35+ innings last season; seven of them finished with an ERA of 3.25 or better. Five allowed fewer than three earned runs per nine innings, with the bulk of that group consisting of generally lower-profile hurlers who were acquired without much fanfare.
That’s perhaps best personified by 27-year-old righty Trevor Stephan, who broke out with an All-Star caliber showing in his second big league season. The 6’5″ hurler pitched in 66 games and tallied 63 2/3 innings. He posted a 2.69 ERA while striking out an excellent 30.7% of opposing hitters with a solid 48.1% ground-ball rate. Stephan picked up swinging strikes on 16.2% of his total offerings, a top 25 rate among relievers with 30+ innings.
There was very little to nitpick in Stephan’s performance. He missed bats, kept the ball on the ground when he did surrender contact, and limited walks to a tiny 6.7% clip. Stephan overwhelmed right-handed opponents, surrendering just a .207/.263/.293 line in 153 plate appearances. Lefty batters hit .280 against him but without significant impact, reaching base at a .348 clip while slugging .380. Stephan mixes three pitches in a power arsenal, backing up a 96-97 MPH fastball with a wipeout splitter and a quality slider.
While that production didn’t come entirely out of nowhere, it was a huge development for a pitcher who could have found himself on the roster bubble not that long ago. Originally selected in the third round of the 2017 draft by the Yankees, the University of Arkansas product spent four years in the New York farm system but didn’t secure a 40-man roster spot. He’d posted fine but unexceptional numbers as a starting pitcher between High-A and Double-A in 2019. Like every other minor leaguer, he wasn’t able to log any game action in 2020.
The Yankees opted not to protect him from the Rule 5 draft during the 2020-21 offseason. Cleveland nabbed him with the 24th selection and kept him on the MLB roster the entire following year. Stephan had an inconsistent rookie year working mostly in low-leverage innings. He posted a 4.41 ERA through 63 1/3 frames, striking out an impressive 26.6% of opponents but surrendering far too many walks and home runs. That changed in 2022, a season in which Stephan dramatically increased the use of his split to great success.
Stephan now looks like a key-high leverage bridge to star closer Emmanuel Clase. He joins hard-throwing James Karinchak as the top righty Cleveland setup arms heading into 2023. Southpaw Sam Hentges — a former fourth-round pick who had a breakout ’22 season of his own — would have a key role if healthy, though he’s battling a shoulder issue with an uncertain recovery timetable.
Controllable through 2026 and not eligible for arbitration until next offseason, Stephan would be an incredibly valuable piece for the foreseeable future if he’s able to replicate most of last year’s success. He already looks like one of the better Rule 5 selections in recent memory, posting the caliber of season rarely seen from players available via that process. The 2020 Rule 5 draft generally turned out far better than most, with the biggest successes coming at the Yankees’ expense. In addition to Stephan, New York lost right-hander Garrett Whitlock to their archrivals in Boston that year.
Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.