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Rebound Candidate: Domingo Santana

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To say it was a low-spending winter for the Indians would be an understatement. They largely stayed away from doling out guaranteed contracts, but the one-year, $1.5MM pact they handed outfielder Domingo Santana was among the few. The Indians are hoping Santana can turn the clock back a couple seasons and help them reclaim the American League Central from the reigning division champion Twins. If there is a season in 2020, Santana figures to at least open it as a prominent member of the Indians’ lineup.

In the event that the Indians get something resembling the 2017 version of Santana, it’ll go down as one of the shrewdest bargain signings of the offseason. As a member of the Brewers that year, Santana batted .278/.371/.505 (127 wRC+) with 30 home runs, 15 stolen bases and 3.3 fWAR in 607 plate appearances. Santana crashed to earth the next year, though, and the Brewers traded him to the Mariners during the ensuing offseason.

At first, the Santana pickup looked like a wise move by the Mariners. Santana was an effective offensive player during the first half of the season, but thanks in part to a nagging right elbow injury, his production tanked from July onward. Santana wound up posting a .253/.329/.441 line (good for a 107 wRC+) with 21 homers and eight steals over 507 PA. That’s not going to cut it for someone who was inept in the field, where he accounted for a horrific minus-16 Defensive Runs Saved and a minus-16.1 Ultimate Zone Rating. Santana’s defensive troubles helped overshadow his passable performance at the plate, rendering him a replacement-level player (0.0 fWAR). As a result, the Mariners non-tendered Santana during the winter in lieu of paying him a projected $4.4MM in arbitration.

Based on the numbers he put up from 2018-19, Santana’s days as an impact contributor could be over. And he didn’t help himself during spring training before it shut down, collecting twice as many strikeouts as hits (10 to five) in an admittedly small sample size consisting of 25 trips to the plate. That said, there may be at least some hope for a revival on the offensive side. As mentioned, Santana’s elbow failed him in 2019 and had a hand in his horrid second-half output, so staying healthy this year would bode well for a rebound. Plus, it’s worth noting that Santana fared rather nicely in multiple Statcast categories as a Mariner. He ranked in the league’s 69th percentile in hard-hit rate and expected weighted on-base average (.347, compared to a .326 real wOBA), and in its 74th percentile in expected slugging percentage (.492). Santana also finished with an excellent .483 xwOBA on contact.

One clear issue for Santana is that he had great difficulty actually putting the bat on the ball last year, finishing 11th worst among 135 qualifiers in contact percentage (69.9) and dead last in strikeout rate (32.3). But an overwhelming amount of strikeouts is what everyone has come to expect from Santana, who has fanned 32 percent of the time since he debuted in the majors in 2014. Even in his career-best 2017, Santana went down on strikes at a 29 percent-plus clip. However, he helped offset that to some degree with a 12.5 percent walk rate – a number that dipped below 10 percent in each of the previous two seasons.

Along with better health and amassing more walks, it seems Santana’s value to the Indians will increase if they keep him away from the field. For the most part, Santana has been a defensive nightmare in the bigs, having recorded minus-37 DRS and a minus-31.2 UZR. He should see a lot of DH time in Cleveland, which ought to aid in maximizing his value, but one problem for the club is that it has a similar corner outfielder in Franmil Reyes. He’s another powerful, high-strikeout, defensively challenged player. At least one of those two will be in the outfield on a regular basis, and that probably doesn’t sound too appealing if you’re a member of Cleveland’s pitching staff.

Considering Santana’s defensive shortcomings, the Indians couldn’t have taken a flier on the 27-year-old expecting him to hold his own in the field. Instead, the hope for the Indians is that Santana will reach his previous heights as a hitter, and it wouldn’t be entirely surprising to see him at least log respectable numbers at the plate if his health holds up. The team’s paying Santana relatively little, so he shouldn’t have much trouble living up to his deal.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

10 Players Switch Agencies

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Agent Rafa Nieves’ newly-founded Republik Sports agency will represent several players formerly represented by Nieves at Wasserman.  A video published earlier today on Republik’s official Twitter feed reveals the names of 11 players who will continue to be represented by Nieves at this new firm.

We already heard last night that Nationals outfielder Victor Robles (a Nieves client at Wasserman) was joining Republik, and the other ten names cited in the video include a mix of prominent veteran and up-and-coming stars.  The list consists of Indians infielder Jose Ramirez, Reds right-hander Luis Castillo, Pirates outfielder Gregory Polanco, Athletics right-hander Frankie Montas, Blue Jays outfielder Teoscar Hernandez, Rockies righty Antonio Senzatela, Padres outfielder Franchy Cordero, Marlins catcher Francisco Cervelli, and White Sox relievers Alex Colome and Kelvin Herrera.

As we’ve seen in several past cases of representatives changing agencies or starting new agencies, it’s quite common for players to continue using the same agent even after that rep becomes part of another company.  We saw this in 2017 with Nieves himself, as several of the aforementioned players (namely Ramirez, Robles, Herrera, Colome, Cervelli, Polanco, and Montas) all went with Nieves when the agent moved from the Beverly Hills Sports Council to Wasserman.

The 10 changes have all been updated in our Agency Database.  If you see any notable errors or omissions within the database, please let us know via e-mail: mlbtrdatabase@gmail.com.

Extension Candidates: AL Central

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It’s now official: MLB rosters are frozen. We won’t see any players coming and going for some times. And it’s unlikely that any new long-term extensions will be announced. But that doesn’t mean such deals won’t be explored. Some may already have advanced nearly to completion before the global pandemic intervened.

While we may have to wait to learn who the targets are and see what deals get done, there’s a silver lining: more time for rampant speculation! Okay, we’re not going to speculate here; rather, we’ll tick through some interesting possibilities on paper. Remember, we’ve seen an increasing prevalence of deals with less-experienced players (even some without any MLB service) and with new player types (early-career relievers and utilitymen).

In the present MLB environment, value is king and the old forms are fading. We’ve already checked in on the NL East, NL Central, NL West, AL East, and AL West. To round things out, here are some possible extension candidates from the AL Central …

Indians

Francisco Lindor is the big story. Unfortunately, that ship seems to have sailed: he informed the team he’d like to halt talks since the sides weren’t making progress. Unless there’s a change of heart and another attempt during the current pause, Lindor is not going to sign onto a long-term deal (at least, before he has reached his final season of arbitration eligibility later in 2020).

There are a few other interesting candidates. Top hurlers Mike Clevinger and Brad Hand would be of interest, but the Cleveland org may not be able to afford these high-end veterans. Perhaps a few others would be more achievable targets for the cost-efficient Indians. Outfielder Oscar Mercado has only 139 days of service under his belt, meaning he’s two full seasons away from likely Super Two arbitration qualification. Young starters Shane Bieber and Adam Plutko are each in the 1+ service class, so they shouldn’t cost all that much and could convey significant upside.

Royals

There are certainly some interesting questions for the K.C. organization to consider. Slugger Jorge Soler had an eye-popping 2019 … but is he going to keep it going and should the team lock into a player who profiles best as a DH? And how about exciting young shortstop Adalberto Mondesi? There’s no real limit to his ceiling but he had some struggles last year and is still working back from a shoulder injury.

The situation is equally uncertain on the pitching side. Righty Brad Keller has had success through two full MLB seasons but isn’t exactly a top-of-the-rotation arm. You could perhaps make a case for relievers Scott Barlow and Tim Hill, though there doesn’t seem to be a pressing reason to push for a deal with either.

Tigers

The Detroit MLB roster turned in a roundly awful 2019 season. But it still has a few potential targets. The versatile Niko Goodrum could be a part of quite a few rosters around the game, though there’s no particular need to lock into him for the long haul. There are more interesting candidates on the pitching side: starter Matthew Boyd and reliever Joe Jimenez. The former has a whole lot of upside and three more seasons of team control remaining; perhaps the club could take a bit of a gamble. As for Jimenez, 2020 is something of a boom or bust year — rack up a lot of saves and he’ll get a big first-time arbitration payday; stumble and he may not do very well at all. Perhaps he and the club could take share the risk over a longer term.

It’s probably a bit too soon to consider the top of the farm system for deals. But this time next winter, the Tigers could have a host of interesting candidates.

Twins

Both of last winter’s extensions turned out well; the team struck again more recently with Miguel Sano. Perhaps the most obvious remaining candidate is quality young righty Jose Berrios, who is entering his first season of arbitration eligibility. Now that he’s in line for bigger money, it’ll cost more to do a deal. The sides have struck out in previous talks. Byron Buxton is also a 3+ service-class player. There’s likely too much uncertainty in his outlook to structure a deal, but it’s not out of the question.

It’s tempting to stake out a case for a deal with breakout catcher Mitch Garver, but he’s already 29 years of age and still a full season away from arbitration eligibility. Outfielder Eddie Rosario is two seasons from the open market, but that also gives him greater leverage for a higher price tag. Would the Twins really want to commit?

How about a few wild cards? Infielder Luis Arraez should at least be a nice utility player for years to come. There might be upside in an early deal for the plate-discipline magician. And reliever Taylor Rogers is another interesting target. He’s still three seasons from free agency but gets more impressive with each successive campaign. The Twins will owe him a big raise on his $4.45MM salary if he keeps racking up saves; perhaps a deal could suit both sides.

White Sox

The South Siders have already extended a wide swath of their roster. You might wonder whether there are any candidates left. But the team is exceptionally aggressive in this arena and can’t be counted out on exploring deals with just about anyone of interest.

The most obvious candidate at this point is righty Lucas Giolito. We recently broke down his case for an extension. You could perhaps argue for fellow starters Reynaldo Lopez and Dylan Cease, or even injury rehabbers Michael Kopech and Carlos Rodon, but there’s likely too much uncertainty in each of those situations for the sides to see eye to eye. The same is true of outfielder Nomar Mazara.

If you’re looking for a sleeper candidate … how about second baseman Nick Madrigal? The Sox haven’t been shy at all with pre-MLB extensions and the former fourth-overall pick is just about ready for a run at the game’s highest level.

Indians Option Zach Plesac, Aaron Civale, James Karinchak, Brad Zimmer To Triple-A

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The Indians announced today that four players have been optioned to Triple-A (Twitter link), as outfielder Bradley Zimmer and right-handers Aaron Civale, Zach Plesac, and James Karinchak were all cut from the 26-man roster.

Of all the roster assignments we’ve seen in recent days as teams make procedural tweaks well in advance of when the 2020 season could actually begin, the Tribe’s moves may have been the ones least likely to happen had the season begun today as scheduled.  Optioning this quartet of players gives the Indians a bit more flexibility in determining tougher roster decisions, and obviously any can (and likely will) be recalled prior to the beginning of official games.

Due to injuries to Mike Clevinger and Carlos Carrasco, Civale and Plesac were both penciled into Cleveland’s Opening Day rotation, and it’s a fair bet that both pitchers could have remained in the starting five throughout the year.  Adam Plutko was also in the mix for a starting job and, since he is out of options, perhaps had some advantage over Civale and Plesac in that regard, though the Indians could also have kept Plutko on the 26-man roster as a reliever.

Likewise, the hard-throwing Karinchak was expected to play an important role in the Tribe’s bullpen in the wake of a solid Spring Training and an impressive brief cameo (5 1/3 innings) during the 2019 regular season.  Karinchak has dealt with some control issues through his three pro seasons, though the righty’s minor league strikeout totals are nothing short of outstanding, with a whopping 186 strikeouts over 102 1/3 innings in the Cleveland farm system.

Rookie Radar: AL Central

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The delayed start to the 2020 season will obviously have a wide range of massive effects on Major League Baseball. Among them: a totally different promotional timeline for some of the game’s most exciting young players. We will never know how things would’ve unfolded. And we don’t yet even know what the parameters are for an altered season. But there’s no doubting the impact.

Typically, opportunities open as rosters evolve over the course of a grueling, 162-game season. Some top prospects force their way up to the majors; others are called upon because a need arises. In a shorter campaign, there’ll be less attrition … though we may also see relaxed roster rules and changes to allocation of service time that could create opportunities.

Still, with more time to examine rosters and think about the state of the game, there’s an opportunity to stop and appreciate the young talent on the cusp of the majors. We’ll run through the most interesting prospects pressing for near-term MLB action. Having already looked at the American League West, let’s head to the AL Central:

Indians

Third baseman Nolan Jones won’t be tasked with a big league job out of the gates, but could be an option if there’s a need and/or he develops as hoped. Soon to turn 22, Jones has done nothing but produce in the minors. He’s due for a bit more seasoning at Triple-A but is close to ready.

Otherwise, most of the best-regarded Cleveland farmhands are further off. But there are some other prospects of note who are immediate factors. Relievers Emmanuel Clase and James Karinchak could hold key bullpen roles, though the former will first need to get to full health. Southpaw Logan Allen is a swingman option. First baseman Bobby Bradley and outfielder Daniel Johnson are both on the 40-man roster and ready for MLB chances after strong seasons in the upper minors. (Bradley also made a brief 2019 debut but struggled in the bigs.)

Royals

The rebuilding Royals need not be in any rush, but top pitching prospects Brady Singer and Jackson Kowar could force the organization’s hand. The former sprinted to Double-A in his first professional season; the latter in his second. They both looked plenty comfortable at the penultimate level of the minors and will likely dictate their own timelines.

Otherwise, there are only a few players with significant “prospect” billing who seem likely to be near-term options. Outfielder Nick Heath and third baseman Kelvin Gutierrez are both on the 40-man roster, so could be called upon to fill any injury gaps. Outfielder Khalil Lee is considered a higher-upside young player, though he’ll need to polish some things up if he’s to force his way onto the MLB roster in 2020. The pitching staff could call upon inexperienced arms including Scott Blewett, Chance Adams, and Richard Lovelady.

Twins

The Minnesota organization just keeps getting more intriguing. Depending upon the development of some top prospects and needs at the MLB level, it could be another year for interesting graduations … or one to watch and wait.

Top prospects Royce Lewis and Alex Kirilloff both have the ability and the positioning to press for the majors in the near term. But will they force the issue … or will there be an opening? The Twins aren’t in need of help at shortstop or in the outfield, at least on paper, but both have star-level upside and will get their chance when the time is right.

Outfielder/first baseman Brent Rooker doesn’t have a clear path to the bigs just yet but could get a look if a need arises. Though he is no longer considered an elite prospect, infielder Nick Gordon is also a near-term option. His situation is helped by the fact he already has a 40-man roster spot. Likewise, having already debuted, lefty Lewis Thorpe is perhaps the best-regarded Minnesota pitching prospect who’s an immediate possibility for the majors, though we’ll surely see fellow lefty Devin Smeltzer and right-hander Randy Dobnak in 2020 as well. Both impressed in their 2019 debuts. Flamethrowing righty Jorge Alcala allowed two runs in 20 innings between Double-A, Triple-A and the Majors after moving to the ’pen in late July.

Tigers

The Detroit organization is banking on its pitching factory. We’ll begin to see the results in the immediate future. Top starting prospects Matt Manning, Casey Mize, Beau Burrows, and Alex Faedo are all nearing readiness. And the team also has some promising relievers on tap, including Bryan Garcia, Anthony Castro, and perhaps Rule 5 choice Rony Garcia. Precisely when and how these arms will be slotted into the MLB staff remains to be seen. In the starting staff, especially, the organization has others in line first. But mid-season movement is highly possible (depending, in no small part, upon what shape the 2020 season takes).

Though the position-player side of the farm isn’t as loaded, there are quite a few near-term candidates for MLB roles. Infielders Isaac Paredes, Willi Castro, and Sergio Alcantara all have 40-man spots and can be called upon as soon as there’s a need or desire to do so. Ditto outfielder Daz Cameron, a player who has had ups and downs in the minors but still possesses a fairly lofty ceiling. Catcher Jake Rogers had an abysmal debut with the bat but hit well in the upper minors last year and is considered a quality defender.

White Sox

Last but certainly not least … the South Siders are stacked with young players who’ll be given MLB trials in the near term. Recently extended center fielder Luis Robert leads the charge as one of the game’s most touted prospects. But there are other blue-chippers as well. Given the delay in the season, high-upside righty Michael Kopech will have a chance to finish rehabbing from Tommy John surgery. And recent first-rounder Nick Madrigal has little left to show in the upper minors. He could take over at second base and push Leury Garcia into a utility role.

Those are the big names, but there are others as well. Infielder Danny Mendick had a nice cup of coffee last year and could also be a platoon option at second base or take on a utility job. With a 26th roster spot to work with, bat-first catchers Zack Collins and Seby Zavala could play interesting roles. Righties Zack Burdi and Ian Hamilton will have to overcome health troubles but could end up playing significant roles in the bullpen if they’re able.

Indians Planning $1MM Bonus For International Prospect

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A shortened 2020 season would make Spencer Howard a larger factor in the Phillies’ plans, according to Scott Lauber of the Philadelphia Inquirer.  Since Howard threw only 71 minor league innings in 2019 due to shoulder problems and was shut down at midseason, the Phils were going to ease him back into action this year under an innings limit at both the minor league and (if all things progressed well) Major League levels.  If the 2020 season ends up being something of an abbreviated sprint, however, the right-handed prospect could end up pitching for Philadelphia as early as the new Opening Day, working in a starting or relief role and still potentially not approaching an innings cap that Lauber estimates could be around 130 frames of work.

A few more items as we kick off Sunday…

  • Baseball America’s Ben Badler (subscription required) looks at five prospects who are lined up to join Major League teams when the international signing window opens on July 2.  The Padres, Brewers, Braves, Indians, and Rangers have already been respectively connected to each of the five youngsters, with Atlanta and Cleveland each prepared to give out bonuses in the $1MM range.
  • Fraidel Liriano, another shortstop from the Dominican Republic, is expected to land the largest bonus of the quintet, as Badler writes that the Rangers will give Liriano around $1.5MM.  Liriano could eventually wind up at third base or second base rather than shortstop, though some scouts were intrigued by his hitting potential, with Liriano’s “strong hands and quick wrists, producing whippy bat speed.”
  • Twelve teams contacted Kevan Smith during the catcher’s free agent stint this winter, Smith tells John Perrotto of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review, though he was surprised to be on the open market at all.  The Angels non-tendered Smith rather than go through the arbitration process with him (MLBTR projected Smith to earn a $1.3MM salary in 2020), a decision that left Smith feeling “pretty stunned…I thought I was on solid footing there.”  Smith ended up signing a minor league deal with the Rays after surveying his options, saying, “You start looking around and see what’s going to be your best opportunity and what team you’re most comfortable with.  You pick and choose, and it comes down to who’s the most interested.  I definitely felt the Rays wanted me to be here.”  Playing in Tampa Bay also brings Smith to the East Coast and at least a bit closer to his home in Pennsylvania, though the Pittsburgh native said he didn’t hear from the Pirates this winter, despite the Bucs’ need for catching.

Indians Option Five Players To Triple-A

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The Indians announced a batch of minor league options today, as left-handers Logan Allen and Scott Moss, first baseman Bobby Bradley, infielder Yu Chang, and outfielder Daniel Johnson were all optioned to Triple-A Columbus.  Johnson and Moss are the only members of the quintet who have yet to reach the big leagues.

Allen is perhaps the headline name of the group, ranked in top-100 prospect listings prior to last season when he was still throwing in the Padres’ farm system.  The 22-year-old southpaw was one of the key pieces of the trade package Cleveland acquired from San Diego as part of the three-team deal last summer that also brought Franmil Reyes to the Tribe and sent Trevor Bauer to the Reds (Moss also came to Cleveland in that trade, from Cincinnati).

Allen got his first taste of MLB action in 2019, posting a 6.18 ERA over 27 2/3 combined innings with the Padres and Indians.  Small sample size notwithstanding, it was something of a rough year all around for Allen, as he also posted a 5.85 ERA over 80 Triple-A innings last season.  Those minor league stats, of course, come with the caveat that Triple-A pitching numbers were inflated across the board in 2019, due in large part to the adoption of the livelier Major League baseball.

There was some speculation that Allen could have begun the 2020 season in the Tribe’s rotation, as Mike Clevinger and Carlos Carrasco were both facing injured list stints for at least the opening couple of weeks.  With the schedule now pushed back indefinitely, however, it seems likely that Clevinger and Carrasco will be healthy by the time the 2020 season gets underway, so Allen is now ticketed for Columbus.

Johnson was also seen as a speculative candidate to make the team, given the uncertain nature of Cleveland’s outfield.  Johnson hit decently well (.267/.353/.400 over 17 PA) during Spring Training but be sent back to Triple-A for more regular playing time.  Acquired from the Nationals as part of the Yan Gomes trade in November 2018, Johnson hit .290/.361/.507 with 19 homers over 547 combined PA at the Double-A and Triple-A levels last season.

Carlos Carrasco Questionable For Opening Day

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Indians right-hander Carlos Carrasco has been slowed by inflammation in his right elbow (and, earlier, a hip flexor strain) this spring. And while an MRI confirmed that Carrasco is not dealing with any structural damage, president of baseball operations Chris Antonetti told reporters today that it could be a “stretch” for Carrasco to be ready for Opening Day (Twitter thread via Mandy Bell of MLB.com). Carrasco will be held back from throwing for a few more days.

It’s mixed news for Indians fans, as nothing from Antonetti’s comments suggested that Carrasco is expected to require a significant absence. But the Cleveland organization already has Mike Clevinger on the shelf as he recovers from surgery to repair a partial meniscus tear, and this winter’s slate of rule changes upped the minimum IL stint for pitchers from 10 days back to 15 days. If Carrasco is indeed placed on the injured list, that stint can still be backdated up to three days, but he’d be looking at missing at least the first dozen days of the 2020 campaign.

With Clevinger and Carrasco perhaps both sitting on the IL to begin the season, the Indians will likely give 2019 breakout righty Shane Bieber the Opening Day nod. He’d be followed by a quartet of relatively inexperienced arms: Aaron Civale, Zach Plesac, Adam Plutko and Logan Allen. (Civale has been bothered by a groin issue himself, though Antonetti indicated today that he’s expected to be ready for the opener.)

The Indians’ rotation is in somewhat of a transitional state — at least as pertains to the final couple of slots. Each of Bieber (controlled through 2024), Clevinger (controlled through 2022) and Carrasco (signed through 2023) should be locks for the next few years, health permitting. However, two of Civale, Plesac, Allen, Plutko and prospects Triston McKenzie and Scott Moss will likely be counted on to eventually seize permanent starting jobs. Viewed through that lens, even brief absences for the club’s top arms early in the season could serve as a continued audition for many arms the organization hopes will emerge as core pieces.

Indians, Francisco Lindor Halt Extension Talks

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Any hope of a spring extension agreement between the Indians and star shortstop Francisco Lindor now seems to be gone. The 26-year-old tells Jason Lloyd of The Athletic (subscription link) that he and the team have “set aside” their talks on a long-term deal for the time being.

While it seems substantial talks have taken place, they obviously didn’t gain much traction. Lindor says that the club did not make an offer up to or over the $300MM level. He recently informed the front office that he would prefer to focus on the season ahead.

Just where the Cleveland organization was willing to go isn’t clear, but Lindor doesn’t seem inclined to take a big discount. He tells Lloyd that a contract along the lines of the recent Christian Yelich deal — $188.5MM of new money — wouldn’t hold appeal. And Lindor says he’s “very aware” of “what’s fair for both sides,” because he has personally “studied it.”

Lindor says he’s not bitter about the situation and remains interested in remaining in Cleveland over the long haul. But as Lloyd explains, that’s harder than ever to imagine.

With no evident possibility of a spring deal — barring a renewed pursuit by the club at a higher dollar amount, perhaps — the focus will now be on the summer trade market. If the Indians aren’t in a competitive position, they’ll surely at least entertain offers on Lindor.

All of the impediments to an agreement have long been evident, so this news doesn’t come as a surprise. But there had been some hope that the sides might figure out a way to line up, as both expressed an interest in doing so.

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