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NL Central Notes: Martinez, Hamels, Diaz

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Carlos Martinez’s right shoulder is a major source of uncertainty for the Cardinals right now, as the righty was in camp with his arm in a sling yesterday following a platelet-rich plasma injection. Martinez was already halfway through a two-week shutdown when he received the injection, and the Cardinals indicated yesterday that said injection could push his timeline for throwing back another week. There’s been ample talk of Martinez pitching in a relief capacity this season, but Rick Hummel of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch quotes Martinez as plainly and confidently stating, “I’m going to start, man.” Because Martinez won’t resume throwing until mid-March, it seems virtually impossible for him to build up to a starter’s workload by the team’s season opener on March 28. As such, if there is indeed a plan for Martinez to work in the rotation, he’d need to start the season on the injured list. As Hummel writes, that’d open the door for one of Dakota Hudson or Austin Gomber to step into the starting five to begin the season. Manager Mike Shildt praised both Hudson and Gomber when discussing potential rotation options with Hummel.

Elsewhere in the NL Central…

  • Asked about his future in the game Wednesday, Cubs lefty Cole Hamels told a flock of reporters that he has zero intention of retiring anytime soon (Twitter link via MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand). There’s been little reason to think that Hamels, who just turned 35 in December, would give serious consideration to retirement, but his answer was nonetheless entertaining and telling of his goals. Hamels gave a blunt “Hell no!” when asked if he’s considered retirement and voiced a desire to play until he’s 45 years old, noting that he was a teammate of ageless wonder Jamie Moyer early in his career. Hamels had a rocky start to the season with the Rangers in 2018 but was revitalized by a trade to Chicago, as he pitched to a brilliant 2.36 ERA with 8.7 K.9, 2.7 BB/9, 0.7 HR/9 and a 47.7 percent grounder rate in 76 1/3 innings with the Cubs (12 starts).
  • Pirates catcher Elias Diaz is battling a viral illness, and it’s questionable whether he’ll be ready for Opening Day, as Nubyjas Wilborn of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette writes. Pirates director of sports medicine Todd Tomczyk said that Diaz will be shut down from baseball activity for “a couple of weeks.” The 28-year-old Diaz quietly enjoyed somewhat of a breakout season in 2018, hitting .286/.339/.452 with 10 homers and a dozen doubles in just 277 plate appearances. He’s still firmly behind Francisco Cervelli on the team’s depth chart, but with Cervelli entering the final season of his current contract, the 2019 campaign could be a proving grounds for Diaz as he eyes the starter’s job in 2019. Presumably, 29-year-old Jacob Stallings would serve as Cervelli’s backup early in the year if Diaz isn’t ready to go, as he’s the only other catcher on Pittsburgh’s 40-man roster. The Bucs have minor league veteran Steven Baron in camp on a minor league deal as well.

Cubs Exercise Cole Hamels’ Option, Trade Drew Smyly To Rangers

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11:30am: The Rangers have formally announced the acquisition of Smyly and a player to be named later in exchange for a different player to be named later. The Cubs have also announced the moves.

9:42am: The Cubs will exercise their $20MM club option on left-hander Cole Hamels today and also trade fellow left-hander Drew Smyly to the Rangers, reports ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick (via Twitter). Late last night, The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal reported that a long-term deal between Hamels and the Cubs was unlikely and that the team could make a move to clear some salary before agreeing to pay Hamels at a $20MM rate for the 2019 season.

Cole Hamels | Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports

Hamels will step into the rotation spot that had been earmarked for Smyly when he signed a two-year, $10MM deal with Chicago last offseason. Rehabbing from Tommy John surgery at the time, Smyly inked a back-loaded, two-year contract that calls for a $7MM salary in 2019. However, Hamels’ eye-opening resurgence to nearly ace-level status with the Cubs presented Chicago with what it clearly deems a preferable alternative to Smyly.

The Cubs have been weighing all week whether to exercise Hamels’ option or opt for a $6MM buyout. The wrinkle in that scenario is that, under the terms of the trade that sent Hamels to Chicago, the Rangers would be on the hook for the buyout sum. That Texas would pay the $6MM buyout seemed little more than a formality at the time; there was little thought that Hamels would pitch well enough to merit a $20MM salary for the upcoming season.

In essence, then, the reportedly forthcoming trade is a somewhat creative means of the Cubs retaining Hamels while still receiving the benefit of the same level of financial compensation from the Texas organization — if not a bit more. The Rangers will absorb either all of Smyly’s $7MM salary or, speculatively speaking, could agree to pay $6MM of that sum with the Cubs eating $1MM in cost in order to keep the dollars at the same level they’d have been had Texas merely paid the buyout.

In the end, the Rangers will receive a desperately needed rotation piece, while the Cubs will retain the former Phillies ace who immediately won the hearts of Cubs fans with an otherworldly run of success following the trade. Hamels allowed just five runs, total, through his first seven starts with the Cubs and finished out the season with a 2.36 ERA in 76 1/3 innings for the Cubs.

While his 82.3 percent strand rate isn’t sustainable and points to some degree of regression, Hamels nonetheless looked legitimately improved following the trade. He should slot comfortably into the middle of a Cubs rotation that’ll also feature Jon Lester, Kyle Hendricks, Jose Quintana and a hopefully healthier Yu Darvish in 2019. The Cubs also have Mike Montgomery on hand as a valuable safety net for the rotation as well as righty Tyler Chatwood, though his three-year contract has been a bust to this point. It seems likely that the Cubs could look for opportunities to unload the remaining $25.5MM on that ill-fated signing this offseason in order to further clear some salary.

That, perhaps, is the largest remaining question at play here. Cubs president of baseball operations Theo Epstein has been vocal about his desire to improve an offense that, as he put it, “broke” late in the 2018 season and certainly in the team’s National League Wild Card loss to the Rockies. It’s seemed fair to assume that the Cubs would be prepared to spend aggressively as a means of doing so, either by investing in the free-agent market or looking at established bats on the trade market.

However, ESPN’s Buster Olney tweeted this morning that other teams have gotten the sense that the Cubs’ payroll flexibility is far more limited than one might think. If that’s the case, moving Chatwood or some other money could be something of a prerequisite for further additions. Even with Smyly off the books, Hamels’ salary will push the Cubs’ payroll north of the $200MM mark (when factoring in arbitration-eligible players and pre-arb players) — quite possibly close to the $206MM luxury tax barrier; Smyly’s contract came with a $5MM luxury tax hit, whereas Hamels’ deal after the option is exercised effectively becomes a seven-year, $158MM contract and would carry a $22.5MM luxury hit. The maximum capacity of the Chicago payroll remains unknown, but the Cubs have already pushed into record territory by exercising Hamels’ option, and the offseason has yet to truly begin in earnest.

Drew Smyly | Photo by Denis Poroy/Getty Images

As for the Rangers, while Smyly’s health is an unknown, he’s the type of arm they can dream on as they strive to cobble together a rotation after virtually everything possible went wrong on their starting staff in 2018. Mike Minor and Smyly are the only real locks for the Texas rotation next season, but Smyly brings significant upside to a team whose internal options beyond Minor were otherwise uninspiring.

General manager Jon Daniels will still need to add further established options and depth pieces to the starting staff, as the current best options after Minor and Smyly look to be Ariel Jurado, Yohander Mendez, Adrian Sampson and Austin Bibens-Dirkx. None of that quartet has found success at the big league level yet, and most of the bunch even struggled in the upper minors.

The further upshot for the Rangers is that as they enter a possible transitional or rebuilding phase, Smyly could very well emerge as a coveted trade asset on the summer market. Smyly hasn’t pitched since the 2016 season due to ongoing injury troubles — most notably the aforementioned Tommy John surgery — but he sports a career 3.74 ERA with 8.7 K/9, 2.5 BB/9, 1.22 HR/9 and a 36.3 percent ground-ball rate in 570 1/3 innings. Smyly has shown flashes of brilliance at times and looked like a potential impact starter — perhaps never more so than when starring for Team USA in the most recent World Baseball Classic — though he’s yet to consistently tap into his talent while also struggling to stay on the field.

Latest On Cole Hamels’ Option, Cubs’ Payroll

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Nov. 2: ESPN’s Buster Olney tweets that other teams have gotten the sense that the Cubs’ payroll flexibility is considerably more limited this offseason than many might expect. The sense, per Olney, is that the team will have to “spend very carefully to affect upgrades for the 2019 season.”

That’d explain to an extent why the Cubs would prefer to shed additional salary before electing to retain Hamels. It’d be a departure from standard operating procedure for Epstein & Co., and from a broader perspective, it does raise some questions about the team’s ability to play for top-of-the-market free agents.

Nov. 1: The Cubs still hope to keep Cole Hamels, per Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (Twitter link), but there may be some steps taken before formally bringing him back. A multi-year contract between the two sides, at this point, is “unlikely,” per Rosenthal, who notes that the Cubs might make a trade to clear some salary off the books before exercising their $20MM option on Hamels.

It’s not immediately clear why the Cubs would feel the need to shed salary before picking up the option. Chicago dipped under the luxury tax threshold this past season, and Hamels’ $20MM salary for the 2019 campaign wouldn’t have any bearing on the team’s 2018 luxury tax ledger. Beyond that, Chicago appears poised to spend in perhaps significant fashion this offseason as president of baseball operations Theo Epstein, GM Jed Hoyer and the rest of the front office look to upgrade a roster that fell shy of expectations when it lost the National League Wild Card game to the Rockies. Given the fact that they’re already likely to add to the payroll, it’s curious to see the suggestion that salary must be shed before free agency truly begins in earnest.

That’s not to say that there isn’t salary the Cubs would prefer to jettison. The remaining $100MM+ on the contracts of Yu Darvish and Jason Heyward certainly aren’t movable right now, but the remaining $25.5MM on Tyler Chatwood’s contract could perhaps be flipped for a different bad contract (or paid down to some extent in a salary dump deal). The Cubs would probably prefer not to pay $5MM for Brandon Kintzler’s 2019 season, either, after the righty struggled in Chicago following a trade from the Nationals.

However, while it’s natural that the Chicago front office would want to shed some of those onerous financial commitments, it’s unclear why they’d need to move any money before picking up Hamels’ option. Exercising Hamels’ option would push the Cubs’ payroll well north of the $206MM luxury tax line for the upcoming season, but there’s been no indication that remaining south of that line is any sort of target for the organization. And even if the team isn’t comfortable with the idea of adding Hamels at $20MM and then spending aggressively in free agency, the Cubs could simply exercise Hamels’ option and then look for means by which to shed some unwanted contracts (e.g. Chatwood, Kintzler) after the fact.

Perhaps there’s more at play here than meets the eye — speculatively speaking, ownership may want a rotation piece cleared out before committing such a lofty payday to Hamels, for instance — but the takeaway that the two sides aren’t likely to strike up a multi-year pact is significant in and of itself. There’s been some speculation that Hamels and the Cubs could work out a multi-year arrangement that would lower the annual rate but still promise Hamels additional guaranteed money. That scenario, it seems, will not come to fruition.

The Cubs, then, are faced with the decision of agreeing to pay Hamels $20MM next season or opting for a $6MM buyout. The Rangers are on the hook for that buyout money as part of the trade that sent Hamels to Chicago in the first place, so while the opportunity exists for the Cubs to swoop back in and re-sign Hamels even after he hits the open market, one would imagine that the Rangers would take some umbrage to that scenario, even if there’s technically no wrongdoing on the Cubs’ behalf.

Frankly, this dilemma for the Cubs was largely unforeseeable at the time of the trade; when the deal went through, it looked like little more than a glorified salary dump that would give the Cubs a durable back-of-the-rotation starter. Hamels’ massive home/road splits gave some hope that he could fare better in a new environment, but few would’ve expected that he’d return to borderline ace status following a change of scenery. That’s precisely what happened, though, as the soon-to-be 35-year-old lefty allowed just five runs through his first seven starts in Chicago and posted an overall 2.36 ERA in 76 1/3 innings after the trade. Hamels benefited from an unsustainable 82.3 percent strand rate, so some regression is to be expected, but he was a vastly better pitcher with the Cubs — so much so that the $20MM option to which few paid any mind at the time of the deal is now a fascinating wrinkle to the onset of free agency as the deadline to make a decision looms.

NL Notes: Phillies, Cubs, Marlins

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The Phillies have done a good job of avoiding toxic contracts, but they also don’t have much in the way of homegrown stars in the upper levels of the minors, Matt Gelb of the Athletic notes. It seems obvious, then, that the route to improve this offseason is the free agent market, and they have been one of the teams with assumed interest in free agency’s biggest fishes, to wit, Bryce Harper and Manny Machado. That said, owner John Middleton once balked at a perceived lack of on-field hustle from former Phillies shortstop Freddy Galvis, which would seem at odds with a willingness to go all-in on Machado, given his growing reputation. Generational talents or not, it’s Middleton’s money, and it’ll ultimately be his decision whether or not Machado and Harper are worth the long-term investment. 

  • Regardless of what happens with Machado and Harper, the Phillies do not appear inclined to overreach in the secondary market, per MLB.com’s Todd Zolecki, specifically as it pertains to their outfield, where in-house options Nick Williams, Odubel Herrera, Roman Quinn, and Aaron Altherr are comparable-to and cheaper-than the middle class of talent available in free agency. GM Matt Klentak also says the Phillies are unlikely to explore the starting pitching market, despite potential interest in upgrading in that area. They are hypothetically interested in a left-handed starter, but Patrick Corbin, the top name on the market, figures to command more money than the Phillies are willing to spend on him. 
  • Cole Hamels is open to signing an extension with the Cubs, or at least that’s the impression 670 The Score’s Bruce Levine came away with after speaking with his agent, John Boggs. The Cubs have until Thursday to decide whether to pick up Hamels’ $20MM option for the 2019 season or let the Texas Rangers pay his $6MM buyout. His impressive turnaround with the Cubs (12 starts, 2.36 ERA, 3.59 xFIP) leads many to believe the team option will be exercised, but nothing official has come down from Chicago yet. If the Cubs do pick up the option, they could begin negotiating an extension as early as Friday with the soon-to-be 35-year-old lefty. In theory, the Cubs could decline their option and negotiate a new contract with Hamels from there. This is unlikely, however, as the Rangers would be on the hook for the $6MM buyout, and they’d have grounds to file a grievance in that circumstance. However it happens, we should know by Thursday if Hamels will play his 2019 home games at Wrigley Field.
  • The Marlins are open to being active in free agency this offseason, albeit for moderately-priced, low-risk veterans, per MLB.com’s Joe Frisaro. With six arbitration cases and only three hefty contracts on the books, the Marlins are better positioned than in recent seasons to bring in some reinforcements from the outside to help build culture and mentor their younger players. One of those arbitration cases, last year’s Opening Day starter Jose Urena, has been rumored to be available via trade, but according to Frisaro he is much more likely to be the Opening Day starter in Miami for the second consecutive season.

Heyman’s Latest: Hamels, Smoak, Nunez, Bregman, Padres

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The Cubs seem likely to pick up left-hander Cole Hamels’ $20MM option for 2019, Jon Heyman of Fancred writes. The club could instead buy out Hamels for $6MM, a sum his previous team – the Rangers – would cover, though that would be a surprise in the wake of his second-half performance. After the Cubs acquired Hamels in late July, he pitched to a 2.36 ERA with 8.7 K/9 and 2.7 BB/9 over 76 1/3 innings. Thanks in part to Hamels’ excellent results over the final couple months of the season, Cubs president Theo Epstein recently called the 34-year-old a “breath of fresh air.”

Here’s more from Heyman’s latest column:

  • Surprisingly, despite his quality production from 2017-18 and his reasonable price tag for next season, the Blue Jays aren’t certain to exercise first baseman Justin Smoak’s option, according to Heyman. Toronto must decide whether to bring back Smoak for $8MM or cut him loose and pay $250K. But if the team’s uninterested in retaining Smoak, perhaps it’ll pick up the soon-to-be 32-year-old’s option and shop him to first base needy-clubs. MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk recently took a look at several teams that could pursue a deal for the switch-hitting Smoak, who slashed .242/.350/.457 (121 wRC+) with 25 home runs in 594 PA this year.
  • Red Sox infielder Eduardo Nunez is “likely” to exercise his $5MM player option, per Heyman. Nunez could otherwise opt out and receive $2MM, but he’d be doing so on the heels of a rough campaign (heroics in Game 1 of the World Series notwithstanding). The 31-year-old hit a meek .265/.289/.388 (78 wRC+) in 502 regular-season plate appearances and accounted for minus-0.4 fWAR – the sixth-worst mark among those who totaled at least 500 PA. Notably, Nunez had a much better campaign in 2017, but he was still unable to secure a large guarantee as a free agent last winter.
  • Mets catcher Travis d’Arnaud is a non-tender candidate, Heyman relays. The oft-injured d’Arnaud is projected to earn $3.7MM in 2019, his last year of arbitration, but the Mets could deem that too pricey in the wake of another injury-shortened season. D’Arnaud, 29, suffered a partial UCL tear in early April, limiting him to four games. With d’Arnaud unavailable, the Mets ended up relying on Devin Mesoraco and Kevin Plawecki behind the plate. There’s also uncertainty with Mesoraco heading into the offseason, given that he’s a pending free agent.
  • Astros superstar Alex Bregman is among those sticking with agent Brodie Scoffield, who recently left Legacy to start Tidal Sports Group, Heyman writes. The 24-year-old third baseman is coming off a tremendous season in which he hit .284/394/.532 (157 wRC+) with 31 home runs, more walks (96) than strikeouts (85) and 7.6 fWAR across 705 trips to the plate. Bregman’s in line to play his final pre-arb season in 2019.
  • Some manager-needy teams recently requested interviews with Padres executive Moises Alou, but the 52-year-old spurned those overtures, Heyman reports. Alou, a big league outfielder from 1990-2008, joined San Diego’s front office in 2015. He doesn’t have any managerial experience, though it does run in his family. His father, Felipe Alou, managed the Expos (1992-2001) and Giants (2003-06) to a combined 1,033-1,021 record, and he took home NL Manager of the Year honors during the strike-shortened ’94 season.

Cubs Notes: Maddon, Offense, Hamels, Bullpen, Bryant

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Despite a morning report of possible tension between Cubs president of baseball ops Theo Epstein and manager Joe Maddon, Epstein said at today’s end-of-season press conference that Maddon’s “status remains unchanged” and firmly stated that he’s happy to have Maddon as his manager (video link via MLB.com). “I know there was a sort of high-profile report this morning,” said Epstein. “That was not accurate. … There were some claims that he and I had personal friction. Not true at all. We have a terrific working relationship. We don’t agree all the time about baseball issues, and that’s the way it should be. I don’t want a ’yes man’ as a manager, and I don’t want a ’yes man’ relationship working the other way, either. I think there should be discord and debate and healthy, trusting relationships where you can work together to make the organization better.”

Epstein added that the team’s loss in the Wild Card game was “not on [Maddon]” and left little to no doubt about his status, saying he looks forward to Maddon coming back in 2019. As for the rest of the coaching staff, the Cubs have not made any firm decisions (video link), but Epstein cautioned against making changes to the staff just for the sake of making changes, stressing the importance of continuity.

More from the press conference…

  • Epstein was blunt in suggesting that the Cubs’ offense “broke” at some point in the season and will need to be addressed heading into 2019 (video link). The Cubs “should be” an offensive force with the talent on their roster, he said before adding, “It’s probably time to stop evaluating this in terms of talent and start evaluating it in terms of production.”
  • ESPN’s Jesse Rogers has more from the press conference, including some quotes on how pleased the Cubs were with their acquisition of Cole Hamels, who was dominant following a move from Arlington to Chicago. Epstein called Hamels a “breath of fresh air” and indicated he’d love to have both him and righty Pedro Strop back in the mix. The Cubs have a $20MM club option on Hamels for next season that comes with a $6MM buyout, though the Rangers would be responsible for that buyout if that route is taken. If the Cubs exercise the option, they’d be responsible for the full $20MM sum. Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times tweets that Epstein called Hamels “absolutely someone we want to be part of the mix going forward,” though that vote of confidence is still a bit shy of definitively stating that the option will be exercised.
  • Strop’s $6.25MM option seems like a more straightforward decision. On Strop, Epstein was extraordinarily complimentary of his longtime setup man (Twitter links via Wittenmyer), calling him “such a big part of the heartbeat of this team” and lauding the way in which he pitched through pain when returning from a “four to six week injury” in roughly half that time frame. As for injured closer Brandon Morrow, the Cubs are “very comfortable” with him as the team’s primary closer next season and will “commit again to a very structured role with him” in an effort to maintain his health.
  • The status of Kris Bryant’s left shoulder has been a talking point among Cubs fans as the former MVP struggled through a down season (by his lofty standards), but Epstein doesn’t believe that Bryant will require surgery (Twitter link via Rogers). Shoulder woes limited Bryant to 102 games (including Game 163), and he posted a .272/.374/.460 slash with 13 homers, 28 doubles and three triples. For most players, that’d be a terrific season — it checked in about 19 percent better than league average, per OPS+, and about 25 percent better according to wRC+ — but each of those rate stats checked in well south of the .293/.397/.546 Bryant posted from 2016-17.

Cubs Notes: Maddon, Hamels, Chavez

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The offseason introspection has already begun for the Cubs in the wake of last night’s 13-inning loss to the Rockies in the NL wild card game, and the team’s early exit from the postseason caught many inside and outside the Cubs organization by surprise.  Here is some of the initial aftermath of Chicago’s loss, and what questions the club will be facing this winter…

  • One of the more pressing matters could be Joe Maddon’s future, as the manager’s contract is up after the 2019 season.  According to The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal (subscription required), “talk has persisted within the industry that [Theo] Epstein and Maddon are not always on the same page,” and the Cubs’ elimination could allow a reason for a change in the dugout.  As Rosenthal notes, however, Maddon did well to lead the Cubs to 95 wins despite a number of down years from several hitters and a lack of production (either due to injury or under-performance) from Yu Darvish, Tyler Chatwood, and Brandon Morrow — the front office’s three big signings from the 2017-18 offseason.
  • Maddon received votes of confidence from players such as Anthony Rizzo, Willson Contreras, Kris Bryant, and Javy Baez, who all praised the manager to reporters (including Steve Greenberg of the Chicago Sun-Times).  Despite the Cubs’ issues this season, Rizzo said that “we still figured out a way to win.  That’s all credit to [Maddon].  Without his leadership here, guys aren’t playing the way they play.  [Rookie] David Bote is not coming up here and playing the way he plays without Joe’s leadership.”
  • Cole Hamels is hoping the Cubs pick up his $20MM option for 2019, telling The Athletic’s Patrick Mooney (Twitter link) and other reporters “Hopefully, I did everything I can to convince them that [exercising the option] would be something that would be valuable.”  Few trade deadline acquisitions had a bigger impact than Hamels this season, as the southpaw posted a 2.36 ERA, 8.7 K/9, and 3.22 K/BB rate over 76 1/3 IP after coming to Chicago in a deal with the Rangers.  The $20MM club option can be bought out for $6MM, leaving the Cubs with a $14MM decision on the veteran lefty’s services.  The Cubs already have over $70.5MM committed to Darvish, Chatwood, Jon Lester, and Jose Quintana (assuming Quintana’s own club option is exercised) next season, though even with that heavy investment in the rotation, one would think Chicago is leaning towards retaining Hamels given how well he pitched.
  • Another midseason trade acquisition was even more adamant about returning to the Cubs, as ESPN.com’s Marly Rivera reports (via Twitter) that Jesse Chavez was telling teammates “If I’m not wearing this [uniform] next year, I’m done.”  Chavez, also acquired from the Rangers in a separate July trade, was almost untouchable over 39 innings out of Chicago’s bullpen, posting an eye-popping 1.15 ERA and 8.4 K/BB rate, striking out 42 batters and issuing just five walks.  Chavez turned 35 last August, though it would be surprising to see him hang up his glove if a return to Chicago wasn’t in the cards, as one would imagine several teams would have interest in the impending free agent.  It could also be that Chavez was simply speaking in the heat of the moment, after the grueling elimination game.

2019 Vesting Options Update

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Near the end of May, MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk provided readers with an update on all the known 2019 vesting options. As he mentioned at that time, some options of this kind go unreported, so we’ll examine the list below with the caveat that it could potentially be incomplete.

A vesting option is a clause in a player’s contract that can change the structure of the deal by guaranteeing him an additional year under contract; these are usually triggered when a player meets certain plate appearance thresholds and/or is healthy at season’s end.

Here’s where those six players stand…

Will Vest

Seunghwan Oh: The South Korea native is just one relief appearance away from triggering the clause in his contract that’ll turn his $2.5MM club option (with a $250K buyout) into a guarantee. Oh, 36, originally signed his contract with the Blue Jays, where he began the season strong and was ultimately flipped to the Rockies prior to July’s non-waiver trade deadline. On the whole, he’s whiffed 10.19 batters per nine while walking just 2.34 per nine en route to a tidy 2.76 ERA. With the Rockies in the midst of a pennant chase, Oh is sure to get his 70th appearance on the season at some point in the coming days.

Will Not Vest

Hanley Ramirez: HanRam started the season hot, but after posting a .874 OPS in April, he mustered just a .500 OPS the month following en route to being designated for assignment on May 24th (just four days after out last vesting options update). What was once an intriguing situation to watch had the mystery taken out of it abruptly, and Ramirez hasn’t played in the bigs since.

Cole Hamels: The resurgent lefty has been a welcome sight for a Cubs rotation that didn’t get any semblance of what they hoped for from Yu Darvish and Tyler Chatwood. Since being acquired from the Rangers at the trade deadline, he’s tossed 63 1/3 innings of 2.42 ERA ball. That brings him to just 177 2/3 IP on the season, however, which will fall well short of the towering 252 figure he needs for his vesting option to trigger. Per the terms of a deal he originally signed with the Phillies, Hamels’ $20MM club option ($6MM buyout) would have morphed into a one-year, $24MM pact if he managed to throw 200 innings this season and 400 total from 2017-2018, all while ending the season without any shoulder or elbow injuries requiring a DL placement. Hamels took the mound for just 148 innings last season, so while he’s been pretty good in Chicago, hopes of achieving his vesting option threshold were little more than a pipe dream to begin with.

Brian McCann: McCann was already fighting an uphill battle in his attempts to reach his 1,000th plate appearance across the 2017-2018 season (a threshold which would have triggered his vesting option). At the outset of 2018, he needed a career-high 601 PA, and after undergoing knee surgery that knocked him out of the lineup for all of July and August, his chances of achieving that lofty goal were squelched entirely.

Ervin Santana: We had already written off any chance of Santana’s option vesting all the way back in May, when he hadn’t yet taken the field due to finger injury issues. While he did manage to get back to the mound for five starts, he’d have needed 200 innings in order to qualify for a $14MM guarantee in 2019. That was never going to happen for a pitcher who made his season debut on July 25th.

Logan Morrison: After a promising 2017 season that saw Morrison launch a career-high 38 bombs, the lefty-hitting first baseman was unable to find a team willing to buy into his newfound success. The Twins, however, gave him a one-year pact with a $8MM club option for 2019 ($1MM buyout) that would vest if he took 600 trips to the plate. Unfortunately, Morrison’s performance has taken a considerable downturn this season; that dive can largely be attributed to nagging hip issues that ultimately necessitated season-ending surgery. During that procedure, he had a torn labrum repaired and a bone spur removed. That, of course, took the possibility of triggering his vesting option off the table, as his plate appearance total sits at just 359 on the year.

Looking Ahead To Cole Hamels’ 2019 Option

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When the Cubs traded for Cole Hamels just days prior to the non-waiver deadline, he was largely viewed as a rental. The discrepancy between his performance at Globe Life Park in Arlington (6.41 ERA, 6.16 FIP, 16 of his 23 homers allowed) and his performance on the road (2.93 ERA, 4.17 FIP, seven homers) led to some speculation that he could at the very least make the Cubs think. However, few could’ve predicted this level of dominance to open his stint with the Cubs.

Through 34 innings, Hamels is sporting a masterful 0.79 ERA with a 30-to-8 K/BB ratio, no homers allowed and a 54.2 percent ground-ball rate that would be the best of his career over a full season. The 34-year-old allowed a whopping 44.9 percent hard-contact rate with the Rangers but has seen that mark plummet to 27.9 percent with the Cubs. A sub-1.00 ERA surely isn’t sustainable for the lefty, but fielding-independent metrics — 2.36 FIP, 3.19 xFIP, 3.41 SIERA — all feel he’s very legitimately improved his performance. He’s leaned far more heavily on his fastball, shying away from cutters/two-seamers and (to a lesser extent) his breaking offerings since switching uniforms.

The rapid turnaround considerably enhances the possibility that the Cubs would want to retain Hamels for the 2019 season, though as Yahoo’s Jeff Passan reports in his latest 10 Degrees column, the finances aren’t exactly straightforward. Per Passan, at the time of the trade, the Rangers agreed to pay the $6MM buyout on Hamels’ option. That money, however, wouldn’t go to the Cubs in the event that Chicago decides to exercise the option. So while some may have previously looked at Hamels as a $14MM decision for the Cubs, it’s a costlier one than that: either let the Rangers buy out the option or pay the full $20MM with no financial assistance from the left-hander’s former team.

It’s a small but dominant sample for Hamels, but if the improvements in his performance are as legitimate as they prove to be, a one-year deal worth $20MM for the Cubs would hardly be a stretch. Chicago already has plenty of starters under control for the 2019 season in Jon Lester, Kyle Hendricks, Jose Quintana, Yu Darvish, Tyler Chatwood, Drew Smyly and Mike Montgomery, though the front office could conceivably look to dump Chatwood in a swap of bad contracts and/or look at Montgomery and Smyly in long relief/sixth starter roles. Creating that level of depth in the rotation would hardly be a bad thing for the Cubs — especially with so much uncertainty surrounding Darvish, Chatwood and Smyly.

Conversely, if the Cubs opt not to pay Hamels at a premium rate for the 2019 season, the veteran’s free-agent stock will be fascinating to monitor. Much has been made of Hamels already regaining the velocity he appeared to have lost early in the season, and his recent work with the Cubs has potentially set the stage for a multi-year deal in free agency. Even one month ago, that would’ve seemed a long shot at best.

A month ago, Hamels looked like a back-of-the-rotation rental destined for a one-year deal in free agency. Now, the final month of the season and any potential postseason appearances, will prove pivotal for both Hamels and the Cubs in terms of each party’s future — to say nothing of the Rangers, who’d apparently be absolved of a $6MM commitment if Hamels remains with the Cubs.

With the caveat that things can once again change dramatically in a month, let’s see where readers stand on the issue at the moment (link to poll for Trade Rumors mobile app users)…

Quick Hits: Donaldson, Holliday, Rangers, Perez, Cubs, Hamels

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Injured Blue Jays third baseman Josh Donaldson will be eligible to go on August trade waivers if he embarks on a rehab assignment, but “it appears unlikely” that’s going to happen, Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet tweets. Donaldson has been out since the end of May with a calf strain, which has stopped the out-of-contention Blue Jays from dealing him as he closes in on free agency. If Toronto’s unable to trade Donaldson this month, it’ll have to keep him through season’s end and then decide before the market opens whether to issue the soon-to-be 33-year-old a qualifying offer (worth $17.4MM last winter). Donaldson was among the majors’ best players as recently as last year, which suggests the Blue Jays will tender him a QO, though multiple DL stints this season have limited him to 36 games and an unspectacular .234/.333/.423 line in 159 plate appearances.

More from around the game…

  • First baseman/outfielder Matt Holliday went without a contract until July 28, when the Rockies signed him to a minor league pact, but he did garner offers before then. It seems the 38-year-old held off on signing because he wanted to join a team with which he had a “personal connection,” Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch writes. With that in mind, Holliday said Friday he’d have been open to offers from the Rockies, Cardinals, and perhaps the Yankees – all teams he has played for – as well as certain other unnamed clubs. After a brief and highly successful run at the Triple-A level with the Rockies, Holliday’s back in Colorado, which selected his contract Thursday. On Saturday, in his fifth at-bat of the year, Holliday victimized the Cardinals with a pinch-hit, 448-foot blast to give the Rockies a 1-0 lead. The Rox ended up rolling to a 9-1 win to climb within a half-game of the Cards for the NL’s top wild-card spot.
  • Texas will have to decide after the season whether to exercise left-hander Martin Perez’s $7.5MM option for 2019 or buy him out for $750K. Even though $7.5MM isn’t a bank-breaking number and the Rangers are hard up for pitching, Perez is not making a strong case to stick with the club, Jeff Wilson of the Star-Telegram observes. Perez gave up four earned runs in five innings during a loss to the Giants on Saturday, raising his ERA to 6.95 over 68 2/3 frames this year. Because of Perez’s struggles, it’s possible the Rangers will take a page from the Rays’ book and use an “opener” in front of him in his next scheduled outing, per Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News. In doing so, they’d hope to mitigate Perez’s issues against the top of teams’ lineups, as Grant explains in his piece.
  • Conversely, Cubs lefty Cole Hamels – one of Perez’s former teammates – is making a real argument for his employer to pick up his option after the season, Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times points out. At $20MM, Hamels’ price tag is far higher than Perez’s, but the former has pitched like someone worthy of an exorbitant salary since the Cubs acquired him from Texas last month. The Cubs have won all five of Hamels’ starts, during which he has totaled 34 innings of .79 ERA ball and posted 30 strikeouts against eight walks. With the NL Central-leading Cubs primed to play into October, Hamels will have time to keep stating his case to remain in Chicago, and he seems hopeful the union will continue. “That’s obviously something that I know [team president] Theo [Epstein] and the ownership and I think [manager Joe] Maddon will have to think about,” Hamels told Wittenmyer in regards to his option. “My job is to obviously make them think a little bit harder.” In the event the Cubs decline Hamels’ option, they’ll walk away scot-free from his $6MM buyout – which Texas will have to pay.

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