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Cubs Rumors: Trade Deadline, Maldonado, Caratini, Hamels

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The Cubs, buoyed by a weekend sweep of the Pirates and a dramatic walk-off victory Tuesday, are likely to approach the trade deadline as a buyer. However, president of baseball operations Theo Epstein tells Patrick Mooney of The Athletic (subscription required) that “it would take a special deal to sacrifice the very top of the farm system.” Epstein plainly states that while his goal is to win in 2019, the team is simultaneously trying to build its farm back up after years of aggressive, win-now deals. Epstein himself doesn’t list specific untouchables, though one can presume that players like Miguel Amaya, Nico Hoerner, Adbert Alzolay and Aramis Ademan will be tough to pry away. The Cubs have recently been linked to left-handed bullpen upgrades, and manager Joe Maddon spoke recently about his desire to add a more consistent veteran bat to the lineup.

More Cubs rumblings…

  • Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times dispels some speculative theories following the Cubs’ surprise acquisition of Martin Maldonado. Adding a third catcher to the mix doesn’t indicate that Willson Contreras’ foot injury is worse than has been suggested. To the contrary, Contreras said he expects to be cleared for full baseball activity by the end of the week, calling his injury a “bruise” after a visit with a specialist. The Maldonado trade was not made with the intent of either shopping Victor Caratini or optioning him back to Triple-A, Wittenmyer further reports. The Cubs have a history of acquiring a third catcher in recent August waiver periods — Bobby Wilson in 2018, Rene Rivera in 2017 — but there’s no opportunity to do so now that August trade waivers have been eliminated. “You can never have enough good catching, especially catching that is playoff-experienced and respected by veteran pitchers and coaches alike,” GM Jed Hoyer said following the Maldonado deal.
  • An early August return could be in the cards for lefty Cole Hamels, Wittenmyer writes in a second piece. Hamels will have a mound session today after a previous pair of throwing sessions from flat ground. The southpaw conceded that while he “hates it,” he’ll need to make at least one minor league rehab start because it’s the “smart thing to do.” If today’s session goes well, that could put him in line to reclaim his rotation spot on Aug. 3, tentatively putting his total absence at a period of about five weeks. Hamels, 35, had pitched to a terrific 2.98 ERA with 8.8 K/9, 3.2 BB/9, 0.81 HR/9 and a 51.1 percent ground-ball rate in 99 2/3 innings when he landed on the IL late last month. He’d been doing his best work of the season prior to being shelved, making his absence all the more costly for the Cubs. In six June starts (37 innings), Hamels allowed five earned runs with a 37-to-9 K/BB ratio.

Injury Notes: Scherzer, Kluber, Hamels

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Nationals ace Max Scherzer will push back his first post-All-Star-break start from Sunday to Tuesday due to back tightness, per Sam Fortier of the Washington Post. At 5.5 fWAR on the season, Scherzer trails only Mike Trout (6.4 fWAR) and Cody Bellinger (5.7 fWAR) while leading all pitchers by a fairly significant margin (Lance Lynn is next at 4.4 fWAR, while Charlie Morton, Gerrit Cole, and Nats-teammate Stephen Strasburg follow with 3.4 fWAR). Scherzer has been beyond mortal over the last two months, winning seven consecutive starts over which he sports a 0.87 ERA while limiting opposing hitters to .157/.196/.249 at the dish (his 79:6 K:BB ratio isn’t half bad either). Needless to say, Mad Max is an essential cog in the Nationals revamped playoff hopes, no less so due to their lack of organizational depth. The scheduling adjustment should give Scherzer the extra rest he needs, as he and the team anticipate he will be ready by Tuesday’s opener at Baltimore. Let’s check in on the health of a couple other star hurlers…

  • Corey Kluber intends to pitch again for the Indians this summer, and he’s progressing as planned, per Cleveland.com’s Paul Hoynes. Kluber is playing catch at a distance of 150 feet, and he looks like he’ll be ready for bullpen sessions soon. He’s not there yet, but there’s light at the end of the tunnel for Kluber, who has been out since May 1 with a fracture in his right forearm. The Indians hope he’ll have time to course correct after an aberrant seven starts in which he posted a 5.80 ERA (4.04 FIP).
  • Cole Hamels has begun playing catch as well, with the next steps being a team evaluation sometime today, per Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun Times. Hamels hit the shelf in late June after scoring a 1.22 ERA for the month. On the whole, Hamels’ Chicago rejuvenation has kept pace into 2019 with a 6-3 record and 2.98 ERA (3.57 FIP). The Cubs need only replace Hamels spot in the rotation once until early August, at which point a return is conceivable. In the meantime, Tyler Chatwood has held the line in three spot starts, though the Braves hit him hard the last time he got the nod. Alec Mills, 27, has looked ripe as ever with a 2.72 ERA over his last eight starts in Triple-A, where he holds a 4.72 ERA for the season. Mills doesn’t figure as a long-term piece for the Cubs, but he’s more than adequate for this brand of spot start. Before you ask, no, Adbert Alzolay won’t take Hamels next time through the rotation, as his rest days won’t align with the Cubs’ need after starting last night’s game for Iowa.

Injury Notes: Carpenter, Hamels, Athletics, Pence

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The Cardinals placed third baseman Matt Carpenter on the injured list Tuesday because of lower back spasms, per Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. They recalled reliever John Brebbia from Triple-A Memphis to take Carpenter’s roster spot. Expectations are Carpenter will return July 12, the first game of the season’s second half, as Mark Saxon of The Athletic tweets. Injury aside, the normally excellent Carpenter is one of several Cardinals to come up short of expectations so far in 2019. The 33-year-old’s off to a .216/.325/.381 start (90 wRC+) with 10 home runs in 326 plate appearances, putting him on pace to fall way shy of last season’s 36-HR outburst. Carpenter hasn’t started since last Tuesday, which has left third base to Tommy Edman and Yairo Munoz over the past week.

Here’s more on a few other notable injury situations…

  • The Cubs seem to have dodged a worst-case scenario with injured southpaw Cole Hamels, who suffered a strained left oblique last Friday. Manager Joe Maddon revealed Tuesday that Hamels is “feeling a lot better quicker than we anticipated,” adding the 35-year-old’s MRI delivered positive results (via Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times). However, there’s still no timetable for the return of Hamels, who has joined the just-returned Kyle Hendricks as one of the Cubs’ top two starters this season.
  • A right knee sprain forced Athletics right fielder Stephen Piscotty to the IL last Sunday. While an MRI didn’t show a tear, Piscotty could still miss a month of action, according to manager Bob Melvin (via Martin Gallegos of MLB.com). Meanwhile, the Athletics finally activated catcher Chris Herrmann from the IL on Tuesday. Herrmann hasn’t gotten to play for the A’s yet since signing a one-year, $1MM deal with the team in the offseason, having undergone arthroscopic surgery on his right knee in early March. Oakland optioned fellow backstop Beau Taylor to Triple-A Las Vegas to clear a 25-man spot for Herrmann and moved injured catcher Nick Hundley to the 60-day IL to open up 40-man space.
  • Rangers All-Star designated hitter/outfielder Hunter Pence suffered a setback during his minor league rehab game Monday, Jeff Wilson of the Fort Worth Star-Telegram reports. There’s no new injury for Pence, who has been out since June 17 with a right groin strain, though it’s now possible he won’t be healthy enough to participate in the All-Star Game. Manager Chris Woodward said Tuesday that Pence is unlikely to return until after the break, but he could still get an at-bat in the Midsummer Classic.

Cubs DFA Carlos Gonzalez, Place Cole Hamels On IL, Recall Dillon Maples, Rowan Wick

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The scene in the Cubs clubhouse Friday suggested a DFA was coming for Carlos Gonzalez, per MLB.com’s Jordan Bastian (via Twitter), who noted Gonzalez receiving handshakes and hugs from teammates. CarGo indeed was put on waivers earlier today, per MLB Network’s Jon Heyman (via Twitter). The team has officially announced the move, along with a trio of corresponding roster moves: Cole Hamels goes on the 10-day injured list, while relievers Rowan Wick and Dillon Maples have been recalled from Triple-A.

The Cubs would like to send Gonzalez to the minors, per Heyman, though he would first have to go unclaimed, and second accept the assignment. If he does go unclaimed, the writing would be on the wall for Gonzalez, who then might be willing to accept a minor league assignment to stay in the Cubs organization.

The Gonzalez DFA was precipitated by the Hamels injury, which overtaxed the bullpen and pushed the Cubs to add a pair of arms before today’s game. Hamels left yesterday’s game after one inning with an oblique injury. Mike Montgomery, Brad Brach, and Kyle Ryan each pitched for more than one inning apiece, while Steve Cishek pitched for the second straight game. Maples and Wick rejoin the club today to serve as reinforcements.

CarGo managed a couple of nice moments during his short stint in Chicago, including a diving catch in the outfield in his first weekend, but a listless offensive performance ultimately made him expendable in Chicago, as he had been in Cleveland previous. In 15 games with the Cubs – half as much time as he spent with the Indians – Gonzalez hit only .175/306/.300 with three extra-base hits.

Gonzalez has maintained a good approach in his age-33 season with a 10.8 BB% that’s higher than his career average. Strikeouts have been more frequent (31.3 K%), but even more troubling has been his inability to get any lift. In 166 plate appearances for the Cubs and Indians, Gonzalez has mustered a mere .083 isolated power mark while hitting the ball on the ground 56.4 % of the time. Statcast puts Gonzalez’ launch angle for the year at just 1.7 – not a sustainable mark for a major league hitter.

Gonzalez has fit well in the Cubs clubhouse, and he was a fun attraction for a few weeks, but ultimately the Cubs cannot afford to be patient with the veteran slugger. While there are at-bats for the taking in the Cubs outfield, it’s not necessarily an area of need with Kyle Schwarber, Albert Almora, Jason Heyward, and Kris Bryant on hand. They’d certainly prefer a degree of greater offense from Almora in particular, but CarGo is not to be the answer.

Though they will use Gonzalez’ roster spot on a pitcher for the moment, the fourth outfielder role could eventually be returned to Mark Zagunis, who held the role early in the season, or Ian Happ, who continues to refine his approach in Triple-A.

Cubs To Place Cole Hamels On Injured List

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Cubs southpaw Cole Hamels exited his start Friday with a left oblique strain, manager Joe Maddon told Jordan Bastian of MLB.com and other reporters. The severity of the injury won’t be known until Hamels undergoes an MRI, but he will go on the injured list, according to Maddon.

Oblique issues often lead to weeks-long absences, which is one of the last thing the Cubs need in this instance. The Cubs are already without their top starter, Kyle Hendricks, who hasn’t pitched since June 14 because of shoulder inflammation and may not return until after the All-Star break. Beyond that, Chicago’s rotation hasn’t gotten great performances from the established trio of Jon Lester, Jose Quintana and Yu Darvish.

With their starters not firing on all cylinders this year, the Cubs are sitting a somewhat disappointing 44-38, though they do hold a half-game lead over the second-place Brewers in the NL Central. The Cubs lost for the 11th time in 18 games Friday, when Hamels lasted a mere one inning against the Reds. The 35-year-old was amid yet another quality season before suffering his oblique strain, as evidenced by a 2.98 ERA/3.56 FIP with 8.76 K/9, 3.16 BB/9 and a 51.1 percent groundball rate in 99 2/3 innings.

Hamels’ injury could certainly affect the Cubs’ plans leading up to the July 31 trade deadline. For now, though, they’ll have to make do with in-house arms after Lester, Quintana and Darvish. Tyler Chatwood and prospect Adbert Alzolay have each started games of late, though neither righty has soaked up many innings in those showings. The Cubs also have experienced lefty swingman Mike Montgomery, who replaced Hamels on Friday, but he has posted surprisingly subpar numbers this year and hasn’t thrown more than 2 1/3 innings in a game since May 9. Otherwise, the Cubs may have to dip into the minors if they want to find a Hamels replacement from within.

NL Central Notes: Martinez, Hamels, Diaz

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Carlos Martinez’s right shoulder is a major source of uncertainty for the Cardinals right now, as the righty was in camp with his arm in a sling yesterday following a platelet-rich plasma injection. Martinez was already halfway through a two-week shutdown when he received the injection, and the Cardinals indicated yesterday that said injection could push his timeline for throwing back another week. There’s been ample talk of Martinez pitching in a relief capacity this season, but Rick Hummel of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch quotes Martinez as plainly and confidently stating, “I’m going to start, man.” Because Martinez won’t resume throwing until mid-March, it seems virtually impossible for him to build up to a starter’s workload by the team’s season opener on March 28. As such, if there is indeed a plan for Martinez to work in the rotation, he’d need to start the season on the injured list. As Hummel writes, that’d open the door for one of Dakota Hudson or Austin Gomber to step into the starting five to begin the season. Manager Mike Shildt praised both Hudson and Gomber when discussing potential rotation options with Hummel.

Elsewhere in the NL Central…

  • Asked about his future in the game Wednesday, Cubs lefty Cole Hamels told a flock of reporters that he has zero intention of retiring anytime soon (Twitter link via MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand). There’s been little reason to think that Hamels, who just turned 35 in December, would give serious consideration to retirement, but his answer was nonetheless entertaining and telling of his goals. Hamels gave a blunt “Hell no!” when asked if he’s considered retirement and voiced a desire to play until he’s 45 years old, noting that he was a teammate of ageless wonder Jamie Moyer early in his career. Hamels had a rocky start to the season with the Rangers in 2018 but was revitalized by a trade to Chicago, as he pitched to a brilliant 2.36 ERA with 8.7 K.9, 2.7 BB/9, 0.7 HR/9 and a 47.7 percent grounder rate in 76 1/3 innings with the Cubs (12 starts).
  • Pirates catcher Elias Diaz is battling a viral illness, and it’s questionable whether he’ll be ready for Opening Day, as Nubyjas Wilborn of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette writes. Pirates director of sports medicine Todd Tomczyk said that Diaz will be shut down from baseball activity for “a couple of weeks.” The 28-year-old Diaz quietly enjoyed somewhat of a breakout season in 2018, hitting .286/.339/.452 with 10 homers and a dozen doubles in just 277 plate appearances. He’s still firmly behind Francisco Cervelli on the team’s depth chart, but with Cervelli entering the final season of his current contract, the 2019 campaign could be a proving grounds for Diaz as he eyes the starter’s job in 2019. Presumably, 29-year-old Jacob Stallings would serve as Cervelli’s backup early in the year if Diaz isn’t ready to go, as he’s the only other catcher on Pittsburgh’s 40-man roster. The Bucs have minor league veteran Steven Baron in camp on a minor league deal as well.

Cubs Exercise Cole Hamels’ Option, Trade Drew Smyly To Rangers

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11:30am: The Rangers have formally announced the acquisition of Smyly and a player to be named later in exchange for a different player to be named later. The Cubs have also announced the moves.

9:42am: The Cubs will exercise their $20MM club option on left-hander Cole Hamels today and also trade fellow left-hander Drew Smyly to the Rangers, reports ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick (via Twitter). Late last night, The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal reported that a long-term deal between Hamels and the Cubs was unlikely and that the team could make a move to clear some salary before agreeing to pay Hamels at a $20MM rate for the 2019 season.

Cole Hamels | Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports

Hamels will step into the rotation spot that had been earmarked for Smyly when he signed a two-year, $10MM deal with Chicago last offseason. Rehabbing from Tommy John surgery at the time, Smyly inked a back-loaded, two-year contract that calls for a $7MM salary in 2019. However, Hamels’ eye-opening resurgence to nearly ace-level status with the Cubs presented Chicago with what it clearly deems a preferable alternative to Smyly.

The Cubs have been weighing all week whether to exercise Hamels’ option or opt for a $6MM buyout. The wrinkle in that scenario is that, under the terms of the trade that sent Hamels to Chicago, the Rangers would be on the hook for the buyout sum. That Texas would pay the $6MM buyout seemed little more than a formality at the time; there was little thought that Hamels would pitch well enough to merit a $20MM salary for the upcoming season.

In essence, then, the reportedly forthcoming trade is a somewhat creative means of the Cubs retaining Hamels while still receiving the benefit of the same level of financial compensation from the Texas organization — if not a bit more. The Rangers will absorb either all of Smyly’s $7MM salary or, speculatively speaking, could agree to pay $6MM of that sum with the Cubs eating $1MM in cost in order to keep the dollars at the same level they’d have been had Texas merely paid the buyout.

In the end, the Rangers will receive a desperately needed rotation piece, while the Cubs will retain the former Phillies ace who immediately won the hearts of Cubs fans with an otherworldly run of success following the trade. Hamels allowed just five runs, total, through his first seven starts with the Cubs and finished out the season with a 2.36 ERA in 76 1/3 innings for the Cubs.

While his 82.3 percent strand rate isn’t sustainable and points to some degree of regression, Hamels nonetheless looked legitimately improved following the trade. He should slot comfortably into the middle of a Cubs rotation that’ll also feature Jon Lester, Kyle Hendricks, Jose Quintana and a hopefully healthier Yu Darvish in 2019. The Cubs also have Mike Montgomery on hand as a valuable safety net for the rotation as well as righty Tyler Chatwood, though his three-year contract has been a bust to this point. It seems likely that the Cubs could look for opportunities to unload the remaining $25.5MM on that ill-fated signing this offseason in order to further clear some salary.

That, perhaps, is the largest remaining question at play here. Cubs president of baseball operations Theo Epstein has been vocal about his desire to improve an offense that, as he put it, “broke” late in the 2018 season and certainly in the team’s National League Wild Card loss to the Rockies. It’s seemed fair to assume that the Cubs would be prepared to spend aggressively as a means of doing so, either by investing in the free-agent market or looking at established bats on the trade market.

However, ESPN’s Buster Olney tweeted this morning that other teams have gotten the sense that the Cubs’ payroll flexibility is far more limited than one might think. If that’s the case, moving Chatwood or some other money could be something of a prerequisite for further additions. Even with Smyly off the books, Hamels’ salary will push the Cubs’ payroll north of the $200MM mark (when factoring in arbitration-eligible players and pre-arb players) — quite possibly close to the $206MM luxury tax barrier; Smyly’s contract came with a $5MM luxury tax hit, whereas Hamels’ deal after the option is exercised effectively becomes a seven-year, $158MM contract and would carry a $22.5MM luxury hit. The maximum capacity of the Chicago payroll remains unknown, but the Cubs have already pushed into record territory by exercising Hamels’ option, and the offseason has yet to truly begin in earnest.

Drew Smyly | Photo by Denis Poroy/Getty Images

As for the Rangers, while Smyly’s health is an unknown, he’s the type of arm they can dream on as they strive to cobble together a rotation after virtually everything possible went wrong on their starting staff in 2018. Mike Minor and Smyly are the only real locks for the Texas rotation next season, but Smyly brings significant upside to a team whose internal options beyond Minor were otherwise uninspiring.

General manager Jon Daniels will still need to add further established options and depth pieces to the starting staff, as the current best options after Minor and Smyly look to be Ariel Jurado, Yohander Mendez, Adrian Sampson and Austin Bibens-Dirkx. None of that quartet has found success at the big league level yet, and most of the bunch even struggled in the upper minors.

The further upshot for the Rangers is that as they enter a possible transitional or rebuilding phase, Smyly could very well emerge as a coveted trade asset on the summer market. Smyly hasn’t pitched since the 2016 season due to ongoing injury troubles — most notably the aforementioned Tommy John surgery — but he sports a career 3.74 ERA with 8.7 K/9, 2.5 BB/9, 1.22 HR/9 and a 36.3 percent ground-ball rate in 570 1/3 innings. Smyly has shown flashes of brilliance at times and looked like a potential impact starter — perhaps never more so than when starring for Team USA in the most recent World Baseball Classic — though he’s yet to consistently tap into his talent while also struggling to stay on the field.

Latest On Cole Hamels’ Option, Cubs’ Payroll

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Nov. 2: ESPN’s Buster Olney tweets that other teams have gotten the sense that the Cubs’ payroll flexibility is considerably more limited this offseason than many might expect. The sense, per Olney, is that the team will have to “spend very carefully to affect upgrades for the 2019 season.”

That’d explain to an extent why the Cubs would prefer to shed additional salary before electing to retain Hamels. It’d be a departure from standard operating procedure for Epstein & Co., and from a broader perspective, it does raise some questions about the team’s ability to play for top-of-the-market free agents.

Nov. 1: The Cubs still hope to keep Cole Hamels, per Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (Twitter link), but there may be some steps taken before formally bringing him back. A multi-year contract between the two sides, at this point, is “unlikely,” per Rosenthal, who notes that the Cubs might make a trade to clear some salary off the books before exercising their $20MM option on Hamels.

It’s not immediately clear why the Cubs would feel the need to shed salary before picking up the option. Chicago dipped under the luxury tax threshold this past season, and Hamels’ $20MM salary for the 2019 campaign wouldn’t have any bearing on the team’s 2018 luxury tax ledger. Beyond that, Chicago appears poised to spend in perhaps significant fashion this offseason as president of baseball operations Theo Epstein, GM Jed Hoyer and the rest of the front office look to upgrade a roster that fell shy of expectations when it lost the National League Wild Card game to the Rockies. Given the fact that they’re already likely to add to the payroll, it’s curious to see the suggestion that salary must be shed before free agency truly begins in earnest.

That’s not to say that there isn’t salary the Cubs would prefer to jettison. The remaining $100MM+ on the contracts of Yu Darvish and Jason Heyward certainly aren’t movable right now, but the remaining $25.5MM on Tyler Chatwood’s contract could perhaps be flipped for a different bad contract (or paid down to some extent in a salary dump deal). The Cubs would probably prefer not to pay $5MM for Brandon Kintzler’s 2019 season, either, after the righty struggled in Chicago following a trade from the Nationals.

However, while it’s natural that the Chicago front office would want to shed some of those onerous financial commitments, it’s unclear why they’d need to move any money before picking up Hamels’ option. Exercising Hamels’ option would push the Cubs’ payroll well north of the $206MM luxury tax line for the upcoming season, but there’s been no indication that remaining south of that line is any sort of target for the organization. And even if the team isn’t comfortable with the idea of adding Hamels at $20MM and then spending aggressively in free agency, the Cubs could simply exercise Hamels’ option and then look for means by which to shed some unwanted contracts (e.g. Chatwood, Kintzler) after the fact.

Perhaps there’s more at play here than meets the eye — speculatively speaking, ownership may want a rotation piece cleared out before committing such a lofty payday to Hamels, for instance — but the takeaway that the two sides aren’t likely to strike up a multi-year pact is significant in and of itself. There’s been some speculation that Hamels and the Cubs could work out a multi-year arrangement that would lower the annual rate but still promise Hamels additional guaranteed money. That scenario, it seems, will not come to fruition.

The Cubs, then, are faced with the decision of agreeing to pay Hamels $20MM next season or opting for a $6MM buyout. The Rangers are on the hook for that buyout money as part of the trade that sent Hamels to Chicago in the first place, so while the opportunity exists for the Cubs to swoop back in and re-sign Hamels even after he hits the open market, one would imagine that the Rangers would take some umbrage to that scenario, even if there’s technically no wrongdoing on the Cubs’ behalf.

Frankly, this dilemma for the Cubs was largely unforeseeable at the time of the trade; when the deal went through, it looked like little more than a glorified salary dump that would give the Cubs a durable back-of-the-rotation starter. Hamels’ massive home/road splits gave some hope that he could fare better in a new environment, but few would’ve expected that he’d return to borderline ace status following a change of scenery. That’s precisely what happened, though, as the soon-to-be 35-year-old lefty allowed just five runs through his first seven starts in Chicago and posted an overall 2.36 ERA in 76 1/3 innings after the trade. Hamels benefited from an unsustainable 82.3 percent strand rate, so some regression is to be expected, but he was a vastly better pitcher with the Cubs — so much so that the $20MM option to which few paid any mind at the time of the deal is now a fascinating wrinkle to the onset of free agency as the deadline to make a decision looms.

NL Notes: Phillies, Cubs, Marlins

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The Phillies have done a good job of avoiding toxic contracts, but they also don’t have much in the way of homegrown stars in the upper levels of the minors, Matt Gelb of the Athletic notes. It seems obvious, then, that the route to improve this offseason is the free agent market, and they have been one of the teams with assumed interest in free agency’s biggest fishes, to wit, Bryce Harper and Manny Machado. That said, owner John Middleton once balked at a perceived lack of on-field hustle from former Phillies shortstop Freddy Galvis, which would seem at odds with a willingness to go all-in on Machado, given his growing reputation. Generational talents or not, it’s Middleton’s money, and it’ll ultimately be his decision whether or not Machado and Harper are worth the long-term investment. 

  • Regardless of what happens with Machado and Harper, the Phillies do not appear inclined to overreach in the secondary market, per MLB.com’s Todd Zolecki, specifically as it pertains to their outfield, where in-house options Nick Williams, Odubel Herrera, Roman Quinn, and Aaron Altherr are comparable-to and cheaper-than the middle class of talent available in free agency. GM Matt Klentak also says the Phillies are unlikely to explore the starting pitching market, despite potential interest in upgrading in that area. They are hypothetically interested in a left-handed starter, but Patrick Corbin, the top name on the market, figures to command more money than the Phillies are willing to spend on him. 
  • Cole Hamels is open to signing an extension with the Cubs, or at least that’s the impression 670 The Score’s Bruce Levine came away with after speaking with his agent, John Boggs. The Cubs have until Thursday to decide whether to pick up Hamels’ $20MM option for the 2019 season or let the Texas Rangers pay his $6MM buyout. His impressive turnaround with the Cubs (12 starts, 2.36 ERA, 3.59 xFIP) leads many to believe the team option will be exercised, but nothing official has come down from Chicago yet. If the Cubs do pick up the option, they could begin negotiating an extension as early as Friday with the soon-to-be 35-year-old lefty. In theory, the Cubs could decline their option and negotiate a new contract with Hamels from there. This is unlikely, however, as the Rangers would be on the hook for the $6MM buyout, and they’d have grounds to file a grievance in that circumstance. However it happens, we should know by Thursday if Hamels will play his 2019 home games at Wrigley Field.
  • The Marlins are open to being active in free agency this offseason, albeit for moderately-priced, low-risk veterans, per MLB.com’s Joe Frisaro. With six arbitration cases and only three hefty contracts on the books, the Marlins are better positioned than in recent seasons to bring in some reinforcements from the outside to help build culture and mentor their younger players. One of those arbitration cases, last year’s Opening Day starter Jose Urena, has been rumored to be available via trade, but according to Frisaro he is much more likely to be the Opening Day starter in Miami for the second consecutive season.

Heyman’s Latest: Hamels, Smoak, Nunez, Bregman, Padres

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The Cubs seem likely to pick up left-hander Cole Hamels’ $20MM option for 2019, Jon Heyman of Fancred writes. The club could instead buy out Hamels for $6MM, a sum his previous team – the Rangers – would cover, though that would be a surprise in the wake of his second-half performance. After the Cubs acquired Hamels in late July, he pitched to a 2.36 ERA with 8.7 K/9 and 2.7 BB/9 over 76 1/3 innings. Thanks in part to Hamels’ excellent results over the final couple months of the season, Cubs president Theo Epstein recently called the 34-year-old a “breath of fresh air.”

Here’s more from Heyman’s latest column:

  • Surprisingly, despite his quality production from 2017-18 and his reasonable price tag for next season, the Blue Jays aren’t certain to exercise first baseman Justin Smoak’s option, according to Heyman. Toronto must decide whether to bring back Smoak for $8MM or cut him loose and pay $250K. But if the team’s uninterested in retaining Smoak, perhaps it’ll pick up the soon-to-be 32-year-old’s option and shop him to first base needy-clubs. MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk recently took a look at several teams that could pursue a deal for the switch-hitting Smoak, who slashed .242/.350/.457 (121 wRC+) with 25 home runs in 594 PA this year.
  • Red Sox infielder Eduardo Nunez is “likely” to exercise his $5MM player option, per Heyman. Nunez could otherwise opt out and receive $2MM, but he’d be doing so on the heels of a rough campaign (heroics in Game 1 of the World Series notwithstanding). The 31-year-old hit a meek .265/.289/.388 (78 wRC+) in 502 regular-season plate appearances and accounted for minus-0.4 fWAR – the sixth-worst mark among those who totaled at least 500 PA. Notably, Nunez had a much better campaign in 2017, but he was still unable to secure a large guarantee as a free agent last winter.
  • Mets catcher Travis d’Arnaud is a non-tender candidate, Heyman relays. The oft-injured d’Arnaud is projected to earn $3.7MM in 2019, his last year of arbitration, but the Mets could deem that too pricey in the wake of another injury-shortened season. D’Arnaud, 29, suffered a partial UCL tear in early April, limiting him to four games. With d’Arnaud unavailable, the Mets ended up relying on Devin Mesoraco and Kevin Plawecki behind the plate. There’s also uncertainty with Mesoraco heading into the offseason, given that he’s a pending free agent.
  • Astros superstar Alex Bregman is among those sticking with agent Brodie Scoffield, who recently left Legacy to start Tidal Sports Group, Heyman writes. The 24-year-old third baseman is coming off a tremendous season in which he hit .284/394/.532 (157 wRC+) with 31 home runs, more walks (96) than strikeouts (85) and 7.6 fWAR across 705 trips to the plate. Bregman’s in line to play his final pre-arb season in 2019.
  • Some manager-needy teams recently requested interviews with Padres executive Moises Alou, but the 52-year-old spurned those overtures, Heyman reports. Alou, a big league outfielder from 1990-2008, joined San Diego’s front office in 2015. He doesn’t have any managerial experience, though it does run in his family. His father, Felipe Alou, managed the Expos (1992-2001) and Giants (2003-06) to a combined 1,033-1,021 record, and he took home NL Manager of the Year honors during the strike-shortened ’94 season.

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