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Corey Kluber

The Rangers’ New-Look Rotation Has Big-Time Upside

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Historically, pitching has not been a strength of the Texas Rangers. The franchise has consistently found itself sorely lacking true aces; outside of Nolan Ryan, there aren’t really any iconic pitchers that come to mind when you think of the Rangers. Kenny Rogers, anyone?

That trend held true once again last year, with the Rangers posting an overall 5.09 ERA that ranked seventh-worst in baseball. That said, Lance Lynn and Mike Minor anchored the top of the rotation admirably, each garnering Cy Young consideration and holding the staff intact during the hot Texas summer.

But when the 2020 season boots up, Lynn and Minor will have some help, and starting pitching may indeed be a strength for this year’s iteration of the team. GM Jon Daniels and company made a concerted effort in the winter to acquire starting pitchers—and they did so at relatively little cost, meaning that a bit of short-term ambition likely won’t impeach on the franchise’s future plans.

Corey Kluber is the big-name addition, and the two-time Cy Young winner should do plenty to bolster the Rangers’ staff. Even so, the team didn’t mortgage the future to bring him aboard: Kluber is only guaranteed a contract for this year, with a vesting option that could keep him in Texas through 2021. Coming off a season in which he could pitch in just seven games, he was acquired in exchange for Delino DeShields and Emmanuel Clase, a move that was widely praised at the time and looks even worse for Cleveland in light of Clase’s PED suspension.

But the smaller-scale signings of Kyle Gibson and Jordan Lyles, while not deserving of the same attention as the acquisition of a decade-defining pitcher like Kluber, could together have just as great an impact on the Rangers’ success as Kluber. In the offseason, Lyles signed on with a two-year, $16MM deal, while Gibson earned himself a three-year contract worth $28MM. Together, they’ll make $19MM in 2020, just a hair more than Kluber’s salary.

Lyles has been around forever, it seems, breaking in as a young arm with the Astros and Rockies, but it took until his age-28 season for him to put it all together as a starter. After a slow start with the Pirates earned him a trade to Milwaukee, he put up career-best numbers, striking out 146 batters in 141 innings, an unprecedented rate for Lyles.

How come? The simple version is that Lyles began relying less and less on his sinker, a staple in his repertoire throughout the early stages of his career. His sinker usage dropped to a minuscule 1.7% last year while he threw four-seam fastballs 50.2% of the time, more than he ever had before. The curveball also became a more important weapon in his pitch mix.

That isn’t too unlike the formula that Lance Lynn rode to his career-best 2019 season. Just like Lyles, Lynn’s sinker usage hit a career low last year, replaced almost entirely by four-seam fastballs—largely in the upper part of the strike zone. This isn’t unique to the Rangers—the Astros’ unparalleled pitching brilliance hinges on this philosophy—and it’s a trend that has redefined the way we look at pitching in MLB.

It’s an approach that worked for the Rangers last year, Lynn’s first in Texas, and perhaps Daniels is confident that his staff can use it to produce similar results with Lyles and Gibson this year. Sure enough, the sinker has been Gibson’s most-used pitch through his first five years as a big-leaguer. Sound familiar? Granted, Gibson’s four-seamer hasn’t been a great pitch for him, but throwing fewer sinkers could in turn lead to a jump in his slider usage, a high-spin pitch that may be a hidden gem.

Still, pitching at the MLB level is not as simple as flipping a switch and saying, “sinker bad, four-seam good.” That approach can’t be uniformly applied to every pitcher in baseball with the same results; there’s a reason careers have been forged around the sinker. And yet, the proliferation of the high fastball in MLB lends credence to its value, and the Rangers may have pursued the likes of Gibson and Lyles with that style in mind.

But that’s only half the battle; the burden then falls on the coaching staff and players themselves to accept and implement adjustments. It’s why we still play the games when there’s such a wealth of knowledge out there. So we’ll anxiously await the 2020 season to see whether the on-field results look as good as the ideas that underpin them.

When Padres Gave Up An Eventual 2-Time Cy Young Winner

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Although right-hander Corey Kluber has been one of the most successful starters in recent memory, it’s not as if his he was a can’t-miss prospect who was expected to turn into the two-time American League Cy Young winner he became. Kluber entered the pros as a fourth-round pick of the Padres in 2007, but he wasn’t lights-out at preventing runs at the lower levels of the minors with them during his time with the franchise. The Padres eventually deemed Kluber expendable when they sent him to the Indians in a July 2010 three-team trade that also involved the Cardinals. The headliners then were outfielder Ryan Ludwick (he went from the Cardinals to the Padres) and righty Jake Westbrook (the Indians shipped him to the Redbirds). Little did anyone know Kluber would turn into the most valuable player in the deal.

Corey Kluber | Peter G. Aiken/USA TODAY Sports

If we go back a decade, Ludwick was amid a rather impressive run with the Cardinals, largely because of a 5.3-fWAR campaign in 2008 in which he posted a jaw-dropping 151 wRC+. While he fell back to earth from there, the Padres – who were playoff contenders in 2010 – expected him to at least serve as a solid regular in their uniform. But the Padres, despite winning 90 games that year, didn’t end up making the playoffs, and they never got much value from Ludwick. He slashed a weak .228/.301/.358 (86 wRC+) over 664 plate appearances in a Padres uniform in 160 games before they sold him to the Pirates in July 2011.

Ludwick’s subpar production in San Diego makes it all the more unfortunate that the team said goodbye to Kluber, who later evolved into one of the top starters of the past several years. Kluber came into his own in 2013, his first full season in the majors, and proceeded to post a sterling 2.96 ERA/2.89 FIP with 9.91 K/9 and 1.86 BB/9 across 1,238 2/3 innings through 2018.

As mentioned, Kluber took home a pair of Cy Youngs during his halcyon stretch. He also earned three All-Star nods, ranked 10th among all qualified starters in ERA, and helped the Indians to four playoff berths and three AL Central championships. Not bad for someone who was unheralded when the Indians got him. Westbrook, whom the Indians gave up, was quite good in their uniform at times, and he did enjoy success in St. Louis, but that’s nonetheless a trade that Cleveland would make again in light of how much Kluber blossomed as a member of the club.

However, now 34 years old, Kluber is no longer part of the team with which he broke out. After a disappointing, injury-ruined 2019, the Indians sent Kluber and his waning team control (he has a guaranteed one year, $18.5MM left on the five-year, $38.5MM pact the Indians gave him in 2015) to the Rangers for reliever Emmanuel Clase and outfielder Delino DeShields. It has never come off as an overwhelming return for Cleveland, especially in light of Clase’s recent 80-game suspension for performance-enhancing drugs. Then again, Kluber didn’t look like a special pickup when he joined the Indians, and look how he panned out. Regardless of what happens with Clase and DeShields, you can’t argue with what the Indians got from Kluber when he was in their rotation. For the Padres, though, he’s a star who got away.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

8 AL West Pitchers Looking For Bounce-Back Years

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Our preseason series exploring potential bounce-back candidates for 2020 began with a look at several AL West hitters hoping to rebound. Let’s stay in the division and focus on a group of talented pitchers who want to put disappointing seasons behind them…

Corey Kluber, RHP, Rangers: Kluber was the Rangers’ highest-profile offseason pickup and someone who’s now near the front of a revamped rotation, but the Indians decided the 33-year-old was expendable in the wake of a truncated 2019. In a limited number of innings (35 2/3), Kluber came nowhere near his two-time Cy Young form, notching a 5.80 ERA/4.06 FIP, and didn’t pitch past May 1 as a result of a broken forearm. Kluber did strike out almost 10 batters per nine when he was healthy enough to take the mound, but he offset that with some of the worst walk (3.79 BB/9), groundball (40 percent) and average fastball velocity (91.6 mph) marks of his career. With the Rangers holding an $18MM option or a $1MM buyout over him for 2021, this is an especially pivotal season for Kluber.

Jose Leclerc, RHP, Rangers: Leclerc was an absolute force during a breakout 2018, but his run prevention numbers took noticeable steps backward because of control problems. He lost his job as the Rangers’ closer at one point early in the year and wound up with a 4.33 ERA and 5.11 BB/9 in 68 2/3 innings. However, the 26-year-old did get a lot better after a terrible May, and he also concluded with 13.11 K/9 and a career-high 96.8 mph average fastball velocity (1.5 mph better than he recorded during his dream ’18).

Andrew Heaney, LHP, Angels: Considering their lack of high-end pitching additions in the offseason, it’s particularly important for the the Angels to get a healthy and better version of Heaney in 2020. Injuries victimized Heaney last year, holding him to 95 1/3 innings of 4.91 ERA/4.63 FIP ball. He also struggled to induce grounders (33.6 percent), which helped lead to an 18.3 percent home run-to-fly ball rate. But Heaney did log 11.14 K/9 against 2.83 BB/9 with a personal-best average fastball velocity (92.5 mph) and a career-high swinging-strike rate (14.1 percent).

Lou Trivino, RHP, Athletics: Trivino had an outstanding rookie year from the A’s bullpen in 2018, but with the clear exception of his 97 mph-plus velocity, just about everything went downhill last season. Fewer strikeouts and more walks meant far more runs against, with Trivino’s ERA/FIP shooting from the twos and threes to 5.25/4.53 over 60 frames during a year that ended early because of rib issues. And Trivino wasn’t as lucky as he was a rookie, as his batting average on balls in play and strand rate each went the wrong way. On a more encouraging note, the 28-year-old did rank near the top of the majors in a few notable Statcast categories, including average exit velocity against (85.5 mph).

Joakim Soria, RHP, Athletics: Soria was another A’s reliever who may not have produced as the team hoped he would have in 2019. The A’s signed Soria to a two-year, $15MM deal in December 2018 after a terrific season between the White Sox and Brewers, but for the most part, he couldn’t match what he did then. That’s not to say Soria was bad – he still posted a 4.30 ERA/3.62 FIP with 10.3 K/9 and 2.61 BB/9, and his mean fastball velocity remained in the 93 mph range. Also, as with Trivino, Soria was something of a Statcast favorite, mostly earning good marks in that area.

Yusei Kikuchi, LHP, Mariners: On the heels of an excellent tenure in his homeland of Japan, Kikuchi was a high-profile signing for the Mariners entering the 2019 campaign. They guaranteed Kikuchi $56MM on a contract that could max out at $109MM, but Year 1 of the deal probably didn’t go to the Mariners’ liking. In his first season in the majors, the 28-year-old recorded a 5.46 ERA/5.71 FIP – both among the worst in the game – across 161 2/3 innings. He relied primarily on a fastball-slider-curve mix, but all three of those offerings ranked among the least effective of their kind, per FanGraphs. Kikuchi did walk fewer than three hitters per nine, though his K/9 (6.46) placed sixth from the bottom out of 75 pitchers who accumulated at least 150 innings.

Carl Edwards Jr., RHP, Mariners: It wasn’t long ago that Edwards was a key component of the Cubs’ bullpen. As recently as 2018, he put up a 2.60 ERA/2.93 FIP with 11.6 K/9 across 52 innings, though that stellar production did come in spite of a 5.54 BB/9 and a lowly 28.9 percent groundball rate. Edwards found a way to dodge home runs then, as he gave them up on just 3.8 percent of the many fly balls he allowed, but he wasn’t able to do so during an abbreviated, shoulder injury-plagued 2019 in the majors. Edwards only totaled 17 innings between the Cubs and Padres (his other 17 2/3 frames came in Triple-A ball), and he gave up HRs 15 percent of the time en route to an abysmal 8.47 ERA/5.74 FIP. His control got worse along the way, as he surrendered almost seven walks per nine, and so did his strikeout rate. Edwards fanned a little over 10 hitters per nine, but his strikeout percentage fell almost six points from the prior year, while his swinging-strike rate dropped nearly 4 percent. Still, for $950K, you can’t fault the Mariners for rolling the dice.

Yoshihisa Hirano, RHP, Mariners: Hirano’s another low-cost bullpen flier for the Mariners, whom they inked for $1.6MM last month. No doubt, they’re hoping they get a version of Hirano closer to 2018 than ’19. The former Diamondback recorded a 2.44 ERA/3.69 FIP in his first year in the majors, but those numbers rose to 4.75 and 4.04, respectively, last season. Hirano also generated fewer ground balls, gave up more home runs and issued more walks, though he did see his K percentage go up almost 4 percent, finishing with 10.36 per nine. Like the Edwards signing, there’s little to no harm from the M’s perspective in taking a chance on a rebound.

AL Pitching Notes: Indians, Kluber, Jays, Ryu, Rays, Morton, O’s

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The Indians brought an end to the Corey Kluber era earlier this month, trading the right-hander to the Rangers for reliever Emmanuel Clase and outfielder Delino DeShields. On paper, it may not look like a great return for a two-time Cy Young winner, though it turns out teams just weren’t champing at the bit to surrender hauls for Kluber – a 33-year-old’s who expensive ($17.5MM guarantee for 2020) and coming off an injury-marred campaign. Thanks to those factors, when the Indians left this month’s Winter Meetings, the majority of offers they’d received only included players at the Single-A level, Terry Pluto of cleveland.com relays. So, in an effort to stay competitive in 2020, they took a pair of major leaguers (including Clase, whom they hope can blossom into a late-game force). The goal is to use some of the Kluber savings on an infielder, another outfielder and more bullpen help, per Pluto. The Indians may have crossed one of those needs off the list when they agreed to a $6.25MM deal with second baseman Cesar Hernandez on Monday.

  • The rebuilding Blue Jays made one of the biggest splashes of the offseason Sunday in agreeing to a four-year, $80MM contract with left-hander Hyun-Jin Ryu. While the former Dodger was among the game’s premier pitchers last season, his age (33 in March) and extensive injury history make him an especially risky pickup at such a high price tag. There’s a solid chance the deal will become regrettable for Toronto, Buster Olney of ESPN observes (subscription links), though he nonetheless applauds the Blue Jays for taking a chance in an attempt improve and become more interesting. As those who’ve followed the past few offseasons know, many teams have drawn the ire of fans and media for sitting on the sidelines instead of making earnest efforts to put a more competitive product on the field. At the very least, considering the active winter the Jays have had, they’re trying.
  • More from Olney (subscription), who expects Rays righty Charlie Morton to become a hot commodity on the trade market in the next year. There are no indications the Rays, coming off a stellar season thanks in large part to Morton’s elite output, are considering parting with the 36-year-old now. But with so few (or no) sure bets left on the free-agent pitching market, he’d surely bring back a sizable return in a deal at this moment. Morton’s also on a contract that would be appealing to most teams, as he’ll make $15MM in 2020. He has a $15MM option for 2021 that will become guarantee if he spends fewer than 30 days on the injured list, but it’ll likely be a good problem for his employer if it does vest. Morton does not have no-trade protection built into his deal, so Tampa Bay could move him without his permission. However, Olney writes that the Rays have immense respect for the Cy Young contender, and if they do become open to parting with him, they’ll “probably feel out Morton” first.
  • Last season was one to forget for Orioles righty David Hess, who logged a 7.09 ERA/7.26 FIP over 80 innings. But Hess told Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com he’s working diligently this winter in hopes of landing a rotation spot for 2020. Specifically, Hess followed the lead of teammate John Means by heading to P3 (Premier Pitching & Performance) in St. Louis. As Kubatko explains, P3 “offers personalized baseball training to athletes across the Midwest with the goal of providing instruction and individualized strength training.” Means, who recommended P3 to Hess, used the center’s guidance last offseason and then turned into one of the O’s true bright spots in 2019. Hess informed Kubatko that “this is really the first offseason where I’ve had baseball-specific work outside of just playing catch. Really trying to work on delivery-based stuff. Working on, not necessarily arm strength – I’ve always worked on that – but really cleaning up my arm path. So it’s similar in a lot of ways, but it’s also different. I guess the best way to say it is it’s very hyper focused.”

The Corey Kluber Trade: Reaction & Analysis

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Over a year of trade rumors surrounding Corey Kluber came to an end this afternoon, as the Indians dealt their longtime ace to the Rangers in exchange for outfielder Delino DeShields and right-hander Emmanuel Clase (plus $500K, in a split of the $1MM assignment bonus Kluber received in the event of a trade).  Here are some of the early takes on the trade, plus some of the potential aftershocks that might yet be forthcoming…

  • Kluber’s struggles and drop in velocity at the start of the 2019 season are a concern, ESPN’s Keith Law writes in a subscriber-only piece, while Clase is a very intriguing young reliever.  That said, Cleveland’s overall trade return is “so light compared to what Kluber was as recently as 2018 that it feels like this was a move to dump salary rather than a way to rebuild with younger players.”  Kluber is owed $17.5MM in 2020 and is controlled via an $18MM club option for 2021 (with a $1MM buyout).
  • What the Tribe will do with this newfound payroll space is on the minds of Marc Carig and Jason Lloyd as part of The Athletic’s writers roundtable of opinions on the trade (subscription required).  The club could be content to just pocket the savings as part of a more thorough rebuild that could include a Francisco Lindor trade this winter.  But, with the Indians still in position to contend within a weak AL Central, dealing Kluber could create enough payroll relief to make the team even less likely to move Lindor in the short term, and spend the money saved on Kluber to address other needs.  “Given the number of teams that were involved in the Kluber rumors, it’s hard to dispute that this was the best return they [the Indians] could fetch,” Lloyd writes, with Ken Rosenthal also noting that Cleveland might have been concerned that Kluber’s value could further decline prior to the 2020 trade deadline.
  • Indians president of baseball operations Chris Antonetti discussed the deal with reporters (including The Athletic’s Zack Meisel and MLB.com’s Mandy Bell) and addressed the “variety of different packages” offered by “a lot of teams that had interest in Corey.”  One of the factors that helped sway the talks in the Rangers’ direction was that Clase and DeShields are “two players that could come back and help us in 2020 and help us try to sustain the level of competitiveness we’ve had over the last seven years.”  Even in the short amount of time since the trade was announced, Antonetti revealed that some teams had already called to ask if Clase was available in a follow-up deal.
  • The Angels were one of the teams known to have interest in Kluber, though Jeff Fletcher of the Southern California News Group (Twitter link) reports that the Indians wanted highly-touted outfield prospect Brandon Marsh and another top-10 prospect from the Halos’ farm system.  It was a significant ask, given how Marsh is widely considered to be the Angels’ second-best prospect (after Jo Adell) and is ranked by Fangraphs as the 74th-best prospect in all of baseball.  If Cleveland was seeking for such a return for Kluber from the various teams in the hunt, Fletcher notes that it could be a sign that “they have a much higher opinion of Clase than most of baseball.”
  • While DeShields’ lack of hitting kept him from being an everyday player in Arlington, his departure creates more questions within an already uncertain Rangers outfield mix.  Texas GM Jon Daniels told MLB.com’s T.R. Sullivan and other reporters that the Rangers will look for an experienced center field through either a trade or a signing, though for now, utilityman Danny Santana is penciled in as the club’s center fielder.  Over his career, Santana has posted subpar fielding numbers (-7.2 UZR/150, -10 Defensive Runs Saved) over 1108 innings as a center fielder, and he has more overall value to Texas a player who can be shifted around the diamond rather than locked into an ill-fitting position.
  • Daniels said his front office first discussed Kluber with the Indians earlier in the offseason, and only circled back after the Winter Meetings, and after the Rangers came up short in their attempts to sign Anthony Rendon.  Negotiations became more serious once Texas agreed to move Clase as part of the deal, speaking again to how highly Cleveland values Clase’s ability.

Rangers Acquire Corey Kluber For Emmanuel Clase, Delino DeShields

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2:10pm: Both teams have announced the deal, which is now official. The Indians have designated infielder Mike Freeman for assignment in order to clear a spot on the 40-man roster.

11:07 am: The Rangers have acquired right-hander Corey Kluber from the Indians, reports Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic (via Twitter). The deal is agreed to, pending physicals of the players involved, per Jon Heyman of MLB Network (via Twitter). In return, Indians will receive right-handed reliever Emmanuel Clase and outfielder Delino DeShields, Jr. (Twitter links via Rosenthal and Levi Weaver of The Athletic). Texas will assume the entirety of Kluber’s $17.5MM obligation, according to Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News (via Twitter), though the Rangers will also receive $500K in cash considerations to cover half of the $1MM assignment bonus owed to Kluber.

A fractured forearm and an oblique strain combined to limit Kluber to just seven underwhelming starts in 2019, but he was one of the sport’s true aces over the preceding half-decade. From 2014-18, Kluber averaged over 200 innings per season with a 2.85 ERA and a nearly-identical 2.84 FIP. Among qualified starters, only Clayton Kershaw, Jacob deGrom and Max Scherzer bested that ERA, while only Chris Sale, Kershaw and Scherzer topped Kluber’s combination of strikeouts (28.5%) and walks (5.2%). Kluber was twice rewarded for his dominance with the AL Cy Young Award in 2014 and 2017.

Of course, it’s anyone’s guess whether the 33-year-old Kluber will recapture that level of dominance. Kluber’s initial injury was certainly fluky, as he was struck by a 102 MPH line drive off the bat of Miami’s Brian Anderson. Prior to the injury, though, he hadn’t quite resembled his previous self. Kluber’s strikeout rate was down to just 22.6% in 2019, while his walk rate spiked to 8.9%. His fastball velocity, per Brooks Baseball, sat at a career-low 92.43 MPH, although pitchers tend to pick up velocity as they distance themselves from spring training, a luxury Kluber was never afforded. Kluber’s velocity has trended down consistently in recent years, though, and he now sits about two ticks slower than he did at his 2014 peak.

Kluber will make $17.5MM next season, and he is under control through 2021 via an $18MM team option (or a $1MM buyout). As Rosenthal notes (via Twitter), Kluber will receive a $1MM assignment bonus once the trade is finalized.

This move continues an offseason trend for the Rangers, who have strengthened their starting rotation considerably. Kluber joins Kyle Gibson and Jordan Lyles (both of whom were brought in via free agency) to complement the strong duo of Lance Lynn and Mike Minor. Having missed out on their top free agent target, Anthony Rendon, the Rangers were reportedly pivoting to the trade market to address gaps on the roster.

Clase was among a handful of Rangers generating interest league-wide. The 21-year-old made his MLB debut in 2019 and turned in 23.1 innings of 2.31 ERA ball. A fastball-slider reliever, Clase averaged an astounding 99.44 MPH on his heater, topping out at 102.02 MPH. He didn’t generate as many strikeouts in his brief MLB time (22.3%) as one may expect given that velocity, but he did induce ground balls on upwards of 60% of balls in play against him. He’s also thrown a high volume of strikes the past few seasons, culminating in a 6.4% walk rate at the highest level. He comes with six seasons of team control and figures to profile as a long-term bullpen asset for manager Terry Francona.

DeShields, meanwhile, may be the more recognizable name in the return, even if he’s likely the secondary piece from Cleveland’s perspective. The 27-year-old got the lion’s share of playing time in center field for Texas last season, although longstanding offensive woes continued to plague him. Over 408 plate appearances, he slashed just .249/.325/.347 (72 wRC+). That is right in line with his career output at the dish across five seasons in Arlington.

To DeShields’ credit, he has been one of the game’s best baserunners since making his MLB debut. The former Rule V pick has also drastically improved defensively. After getting off to a shaky start in 2016, the speedster has rated as a quality center fielder over the past three seasons. Per Statcast, DeShields has combined to be worth 29 outs above average since the start of 2017. His 12 outs above average last season placed him in the 95th percentile of MLB outfielders.

DeShields comes with two additional seasons of arbitration control. He’s projected for an eminently-affordable $2.4MM this offseason, of no small import to a Cleveland organization that has bandied about its most expensive players in trade. Indeed, today’s deal was certainly motivated by some desire on the Indians’ part to clear money from their books. Cleveland now projects for just under $91MM in 2020 payroll, per Roster Resource.

It will be fascinating to see if this move serves as a precursor to further sell-offs in Cleveland. Francisco Lindor has already been bounced around in trade rumors. He would no doubt be a prize of a rival’s offseason if they were able to pry him away. On the other hand, subtracting Kluber’s salary could alleviate any pressure the Indians feel to move Lindor and his projected $16.7MM arbitration salary. Today’s move to bring in two MLB-ready pieces at least suggests Cleveland hopes to make another run at a winnable AL Central in 2020.

Latest On Corey Kluber

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6:51 pm: The Angels can be counted out on Kluber at this point, per Rosenthal (link).

6:31 pm: The Dodgers are still “more focused” on Lindor in talks with the Indians, per Heyman (link).

6:11 pm: Dallas Morning News writer Evan Grant cites sources in confirming that the Rangers are actively engaged on Kluber, noting the shift in direction a Kluber acquisition would represent after recent indications from GM Jon Daniels that the team would not consider one-year “rentals” (link).

5:48pm: Corey Kluber has made for one of the hardest-to-pin trade candidates of the offseason, with the 33-year-old Indians hurler coming off an injury-wrecked 2019 that saw him perform in just seven games, and poorly. However, it seems like a fair number of teams are confident in an immediate return to form, with baseball journalist Robert Murray relaying that the Kluber market is “heating up”. Murray names the Angels and Padres as two parties that have recently checked in. Jon Heyman of the MLB Network corroborates this report by saying that Kluber’s market is “very active” with multiple teams in play, including the Dodgers. Heyman characterizes Kluber as “much more likely” to get dealt than shortstop Francisco Lindor. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic notes that the Rangers are “in the mix“.

With free-agent pitching valuations rising like Silicon Valley IPOs, it’s easy to understand why more than one team might start looking to the trade front to find a frontline starter–even if that pitcher comes with some age or injury concerns. The Padres, for one, have been connected to virtually every top-flight starter made available in trades in recent years, from Marcus Stroman to Noah Syndergaard to David Price. GM AJ Preller and his group are yet to pull the trigger on anything substantive in the pitching department, and the signal has long been that the club would refrain from any major splash spending this offseason. It’s easy to see how Klubot might fit well atop their rotation. The pitcher’s return to his drafting organization would position him with Garrett Richards, Chris Paddack and Dinelson Lamet in a physically imposing top four.

For the Angels, a Kluber courtship may similarly be about their choice to allocate resources toward Anthony Rendon, rather than Stephen Strasburg or Gerrit Cole. We heard this week that the team was in active discussions on Kluber. Hard to see a fit here? Not exactly. The Angels have struggled mightily in the pitching department in recent years, with 2019 mid-priced free agent gambles like Matt Harvey and Trevor Cahill rolling snake eyes in the season’s early months. The passing of Tyler Skaggs, injuries to Shohei Ohtani, and a lack of impact talent at the top of the system has limited the effectiveness of the Anaheim staff in the last calendar year. Of course, Kluber himself couldn’t be positioned as a long-term answer: he’ll earn $17.5MM in 2020, after which he has an $18MM club option with a $1MM buyout for 2021. At the least, though, he would partner with Dylan Bundy in a pairing of perfectly reasonable 2020 pitching additions.

It’s also no secret that the Dodgers have courted pitching this offseason, as the last few months have seen them connected–substantively and otherwise–to Madison Bumgarner, Hyun-Jin Ryu, Rich Hill, Kwang-hyun Kim, Cole, and Strasburg. Their needs are less glaring, of course. The club already features Walker Buehler, Clayton Kershaw, Kenta Maeda, Dustin May, Tony Gonsolin, Julio Urias, and Ross Stripling. Add on one more top-flight arm? Sure, why not. It’s always been the m.o. of Andrew Friedman to stockpile as many effective arms as humanly possible, and a Kluber acquisition would give the club another frontline arm–even if he, like Kershaw, has been more good-than-great in his postseason career (career 3.97 postseason ERA in 45.1 innings).

That brings us to Texas. Their offer to Rendon was said to fall considerably short, with a reported 6-year, $192MM contract proposal sitting some $53MM shy of the Angels’ winning bid. Maybe the club wasn’t feeling as bullish as expected about the projected developmental windfalls expected to accompany their new ballpark (which was apparently set on actual fire on Saturday afternoon). Maybe the club simply has an organizational philosophy precluding it from entertaining $200M-plus deals–there would certainly be some merit to being wary of such a commitment. Either way, a Kluber addition would give GM Jon Daniels a wholeheartedly professional group of starting horses entering 2020. They’ve already added Kyle Gibson to a staff led by Lance Lynn and Mike Minor. Kluber’s addition would bring them to four veterans who, if not the youngest or the most alluring, would certainly make for perhaps the steadiest staff in the bigs.

Quick Hits: Sign-Stealing Investigation Update, Padres, Myers, Hedges, Kluber, Braves, Culberson

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There seems little doubt now that the Astros participated in sign-stealing aided by a live feed from a centerfield camera. The Astros’ maintain their belief that actions at the time were “in line with industry standards,” per Andy Martino of SNY.tv. The newest sticking point is an insistence out of Houston that the camera in question was already in place and not purchased/installed specifically for the purpose of stealing signs. It may seem a bizarre place to draw a line in the sand – and on its own hardly exculpatory – but the installation of equipment does affect the breadth of involvement necessary to put their sign-stealing process in place. At least one witness claimed that many teams use a similar camera for the decoding of signs. Said the witness, “All we asked for was a live feed.” Astros’ hitting coach Alex Cintron played the part of antagonist as the conflict escalated between the Astros and Yankees during the ALCS, though as of right now, it’s unclear who might expect discipline beyond GM Jeff Luhnow and manager A.J. Hinch. Regardless, it does seem that the investigation is progressing and disciple of some sort seems likely. Now, let’s get back to winter action and check in on a couple of clubs…

  • Count the San Diego Padres among those teams more focused on shedding contracts than adding them. GM A.J. Preller’s top priority right now is finding a taker for Wil Myers, per The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal and Jayson Stark. Myers is due $22.5MM per season for the next three with a $20MM team option for 2023 that comes with a $1MM buyout. That’s a steep payout for a 29-year-old corner outfielder/first baseman who put up just 96 wRC+ last season. The Padres are also looking to move catcher Austin Hedges, who is set to make roughly $2.9MM this year and has two more arbitration seasons remaining. For the second straight offseason, they continue to talk with the Indians about Corey Kluber, tweets MLB Network’s Jon Heyman, though a deal on that front before Spring Training is unlikely. They remain curious about Dallas Keuchel and Madison Bumgarner as well, but a deal for any top pitcher seems unlikely unless they find a taker for Myers – which in and of itself presents Preller with a sizable challenge.
  • Charlie Culberson had a couple of major league offers, but none significant enough to outweigh the appeal of returning to Atlanta, per MLB.com’s Mark Bowman. The fanbase in Atlanta is quite fond of Culberson, a dirtdog and Atlanta native who plays all over the diamond for manager Brian Snitker. The minor league deal enables the Braves to utilize Culberson’s 40-man roster spot, while incentives in the deal give Culberson similar earning potential to what he’d seen in other offers. Outside of occasional pop, Culberson doesn’t offer a ton with the bat, but he’s a decent baserunner and plays everywhere on the diamond except catcher and centerfield. If nothing else, seeing Culberson return in a Braves uniform would be a heartwarming moment for fans after a brutal injury ended Culberson’s 2019. On a failed bunt attempt at Nats Park, Culberson took a Fernando Rodney fastball to the face that led to a fractured cheekbone. 

Angels Have Shown Interest In Corey Kluber, Carlos Carrasco

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11:06pm: The Angels and Indians are “currently in discussions” regarding Kluber, but the Halos are facing competition from other teams, Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register reports. As Fletcher notes, if this trade happens, Kluber will reunite with former Indians pitching coach and current Angels pitching coach Mickey Callaway.

8:05pm: The Angels lost the Gerrit Cole sweepstakes to the Yankees, but now the rotation-needy club could be zeroing in on a different high-profile starter. They’ve shown interest in Indians right-hander Corey Kluber, per reports from Joel Sherman of the New York Post and Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic. The Angels have also looked at fellow Indians righty Carlos Carrasco, according to Sherman.

The 2019 campaign was an unexpectedly rough go for both Kluber and Carrasco, who had been excellent in prior seasons. Carrasco missed a large portion of the season after a leukemia diagnosis, but he made an inspiring return as a reliever at the start of September. Meantime, Kluber sat out the final few months of the season after suffering a fractured right forearm May 1. Before that, the two-time Cy Young winner limped to an uncharacteristically bloated 5.80 ERA over seven starts and 35 2/3 innings.

Although last season was a struggle for Kluber and Carrasco, their track records suggest they could make for appealing targets for teams that don’t reel in any top free-agent starters. However, it’s not clear whether the Indians – longtime playoff contenders – are willing to part with either hurler. If they’re looking to shave salary and pivot toward a rebuild, though, dealing either could make sense. The 33-year-old Kluber could be a stopgap for an acquiring club, as he has just one more guaranteed season on his contract. He’ll earn $17.5MM in 2020, after which his employer will have to decide on an $18MM club option or a $1MM buyout for ’21. Carrasco, 32, is due $37.5MM through 2022, including a $3MM buyout for ’23.

Whether it’s Kluber, Carrasco or another starter(s), it does seem the Angels will have to make at least one more addition to their staff to join the just-acquired Dylan Bundy, Shohei Ohtani, Andrew Heaney and Griffin Canning. That should hold true even if the Angels manage to pick up a big hitter like Anthony Rendon or Josh Donaldson, the two best position players left on the board and a pair of players who have drawn their interest.

Pitching Market Chatter: Wheeler, Cole, Kluber, Jays

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There has been some early action on the starting pitching market. Jake Odorizzi accepted a qualifying offer from the Twins, filling one of their openings on a limited commitment. The Cardinals brought back Adam Wainwright. Chase Anderson went to the Blue Jays in a trade. The Rangers made Kyle Gibson their annual surprise three-year contract recipient. Those moves helped set the stage for some of the biggest free agents, who are now engaged with multiple suitors. We’ve recently covered the latest on hot commodity Zack Wheeler and high-end veteran Stephen Strasburg, who has held meetings with the Dodgers and Yankees.

Here’s more from other areas of the market:

  • Speaking of Wheeler, it seems that a deal is indeed on the cusp of coming together. Ken Rosenthal said as much in an appearance on MLB Network (Twitter link), noting that we could even see an agreement struck today. Rosenthal believes it’s a three-team race between the Phillies, White Sox, and Reds, though he cautions that the bidding isn’t fully limited to those organizations. We’ll be keeping a close watch on Wheeler.
  • The Yankees are clearly a legitimate player for top free agent Gerrit Cole, though agent Scott Boras is certain to demand that the New York powerhouse pay a premium to woo the West Coast native. Yesterday’s initial sit-down went well, per Jon Heyman of MLB Network (via Twitter), though it’s hard to divine much of real import given that the sides didn’t talk cold hard cash. Sources tell Heyman that “the dollars will be there,” which seems to be an indication that the Yankees are fully prepared to make Cole the richest pitcher ever to play the game. But whether the club will cast its valuations aside in a full-blown bidding war, should one break out, remains to be seen.
  • We’ve heard a lot of chatter surrounding a certain Indians star shortstop, but relatively little on the club’s former (and future?) ace starter. That may not reflect the real state of play within and among front offices. ESPN.com’s Jeff Passan cites multiple executives for the proposition that the Cleveland organization is working harder on structuring deals for Corey Kluber than in sorting out a blockbuster involving Francisco Lindor. As we explained in ranking Kluber 17th among the winter’s trade candidates, it’s all but impossible to know what to expect from the former Cy Young winner. Kluber ought to be well rested after a freak arm fracture ruined his 2019 season, but he had struggled in early action before the injury. He’s not cheap — $17.5MM in 2020 and $18MM via club option for one more year — but would be an outright steal at those rates if he’s anything like his usual self upon his return.
  • The Blue Jays are “as aggressive as any team” in pursuit of open-market starters, per MLB.com’s Jon Morosi (via Twitter). It’s anyone’s guess just how to interpret that characterization. The Toronto faithful are by now a bit jaded at such assurances, having grown frustrated with a string of losing seasons and minimal investment in the MLB roster. Perhaps this is all part of the setup for explaining that the club just couldn’t quite get a deal done despite its best efforts. Then again, there’s plenty of reason to think the Jays can and should be prepared to re-enter the fray in a big way. The club has cleaned up its future balance sheets and graduated many of its best prospects to the majors. Perhaps the Toronto front office will end up making significant rotation improvements over the course of the winter.
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