MLB Mailbag: Tigers, Gore, Athletics, Astros
This week's mailbag gets into relief options for the Tigers, whether the Nationals should trade MacKenzie Gore, and the trade value of Athletics JJ Bleday and Luis Severino, as well as questions involving the Astros, Reds, Rangers, Cubs, and Red Sox.
Colin asks:
A few days ago, the Dodgers traded Noah Davis to the Twins for cash. Davis was not at all successful with the Dodgers. Can you tell me how much cash a team typically gets in a situation like that?
I ran this question by a front office friend. He replied, "The dollar amount received by clubs trading away a DFA’d player for cash considerations almost always falls between $55,000 and $100,000. There’s little incentive for clubs to trade the player for anything less than $50,000 because the club will receive that amount if the player is claimed off waivers. MLB caps cash transactions in this situation to a maximum of $100,000. Thus, most cash transactions of this nature end up in the $55,000 to $100,000 range."
Barry asks:
I really feel that Detroit needs two bullpen arms, one of which could close out games or be in the closing mix and match what AJ does. Any insight as to who the Tigers are looking at? I am thinking that David Bednar is the type of pitcher Detroit likes, controlling the strike zone, low walks.
Michael asks:
Coming out of the break, the Tigers have the best record in baseball and the biggest division lead. Nobody had that on their bingo card. In light of that, what should be Detroit's plan for the next two weeks? Should they swing for the fences and if so, how? Or look to add a piece here and there but not mortgage the future (or empty the farm) in favor of adding big names now?
The Tigers definitely need to add late inning relievers who can miss bats. There's a good case to be made for signing David Robertson, who is reportedly throwing for interested teams.
The average MLB reliever punches out 22.4% of batters faced and has an 11.3% swinging strike rate. We saw trade rumors on Mason Miller of the Athletics last summer; his K% is over 40%. He's under team control through 2029, though, so the A's have no reason to trade him now unless they feel they're selling high or received an offer they can't refuse.
The Orioles' Felix Bautista is under team control through 2027. He has a huge strikeout rate as well, but walks even more batters than Miller. Bautista's teammate Seranthony Dominguez is in that same class. A free agent after the season, Dominguez seems a lock to be dealt. Same goes for Gregory Soto, so it makes sense for Scott Harris to be blowing up Mike Elias' phone.
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Trade Deadline Outlook: Arizona Diamondbacks
The Diamondbacks are hanging on the outskirts of the playoff race. They enter the All-Star Break three games below .500 and 5.5 back in a strong National League playoff field. They'd surely prefer to buy in a season where they're running a franchise-record payroll and facing a number of potential free agent departures. With playoff odds hovering around 10% and an injury-depleted pitching staff, they'll need to come out of the Break strong to give the front office justification to add.
Record: 47-50 (10.2% playoff probability, per FanGraphs)
Other series entries: Rockies, Giants, Phillies, Pirates, Astros, Marlins, Athletics, Orioles, White Sox, Nationals, Cubs, Rays, Dodgers, Braves, Yankees, Angels, Mets, Blue Jays, Mariners, Padres, Cardinals, Brewers, Reds
Sell Mode
While the Diamondbacks could still go either way, they'd have a chance to really shape the deadline if they sell. They have the best collection of rental talent of any fringe contender.
Impending Free Agents: Eugenio Suárez, Zac Gallen, Josh Naylor, Merrill Kelly, Randal Grichuk, Jalen Beeks, Shelby Miller, Kendall Graveman, James McCann, Jordan Montgomery (out for the season)
Arizona's top four rentals would all be significant trade chips. Eugenio Suárez has emerged as arguably the best impending free agent hitter who could change hands. He's already up to 31 home runs with a .250/.320/.569 batting line. It's a continuation of last year's monster second half. Suárez has 52 home runs over the past calendar year -- tying him with Cal Raleigh for third in MLB behind Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani. He's a .277/.331/.586 hitter in his past 673 plate appearances.
Suárez is playing on a $15MM salary. That could be a bit of an obstacle for teams navigating luxury tax concerns but represents a significant bargain relative to his current production. The D-Backs could (and probably would) make him a qualifying offer if they hang onto him all year, but they'd be able to pull a stronger return in a trade. It seems unlikely that they'd re-sign him to a lucrative multi-year deal and block Jordan Lawlar's path to playing time. The Yankees, Cubs and Mariners should all have Suárez near the top of their wish lists. The Mets, Tigers or Reds could also make a push, and he'd make some sense for the Brewers if they can make the money work. Suarez was plunked on the hand in last night's All-Star Game but remained in to run and play defense. Postgame x-rays were negative.
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Trade Deadline Outlook: Milwaukee Brewers
MLBTR’s team-by-team look at the upcoming deadline continues with the Brewers. Milwaukee is firmly in a playoff spot and should be looking to buy. However, their financial restraints and apparent surplus of starting pitching could allow them to do some selling or some classic "baseball trades."
Record: 56-40 (82.9% playoff probability, per FanGraphs)
For other entrants in this series, see this post.
Buy Mode
Potential needs: Infield
As of a few months ago, starting pitching would have topped the list of potential needs, but that's no longer the case. The Brewers had a number of injuries early in the year, which spurred them to make a late-spring signing of Jose Quintana and an early-season trade for Quinn Priester. Since then, some of the injured pitchers have returned healthy while several young arms have stepped up to post encouraging results. Now the Brewers seemingly have a rotation surplus they could theoretically deal from. More on that later.
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Trade Deadline Outlook: St. Louis Cardinals
The Cardinals reached the All-Star break in a tricky position. With about 40% of their season remaining, they're only 1.5 games back in the Wild Card and have a real shot at the playoffs. That's the case despite an offseason in which they did not attempt to improve the club, in what longtime president of baseball operations John Mozeliak termed a "reset." And Mozeliak will be navigating the July 31st deadline as a lame duck, given the club's stated plan to give his job to Chaim Bloom for the 2026 season.
Mozeliak put it this way nine days ago (Katie Woo of The Athletic reporting): "I do feel like where we are in the week leading up, or the 72 hours leading up to the trading deadline, may affect how we make our decisions." He further explained, "When we talk about all-in, I do think based on where the franchise is, based on payroll down and thinking more of the long view, we’re still trying to balance today’s success with ultimately having long-term success."
Record: 51-46 (28.5% playoff probability, per FanGraphs)
Buy Mode
Potential needs: Right-handed bat, pitching depth
Regarding the transition to Bloom, Mozeliak said, "When we get closer to the deadline, if there’s something that could impact how the future looks, clearly we’ll take a look at in a more collaborative sense."
With relative stability on the pitching staff, Mozeliak's deadline focus on the buy side may be on an offense that ranks fifth in the National League with 4.58 runs scored per game. Within that respectable showing, however, is a team that ranks 10th in the NL with an 88 wRC+ against left-handed pitching.
Mozeliak acknowledged the deficiency but also said, "I do feel like where they’re going to be in a week or two is not a glaring hole in terms of trading deadline thoughts," given Ivan Herrera's July 13th activation and minor injuries affecting other righty bats like Nolan Arenado and Willson Contreras.
Brendan Donovan has been an everyday player, generally at second base, despite consistent struggles against southpaws over the last three seasons. Alec Burleson, currently deployed in the corner outfield, has been similar. Center fielder Victor Scott II has sat against some lefties in the last month in favor of Garrett Hampson. Lars Nootbaar, on the IL for a left costochondral sprain, had been sitting here or there against lefties but often with Donovan or Burleson in his spot and Thomas Saggese getting the start at second base.
Given that Mozeliak said "I don’t think we’re ever going to take away from the guys we’re trying to see play," it may be difficult to find the ideal addition. An improvement over Hampson as Scott's platoon partner could be one answer. Perhaps a call to the White Sox regarding Austin Slater or Michael A. Taylor of the White Sox would make sense. A homecoming for Randal Grichuk could work, though he hasn't played much center in recent years. Maybe the Astros will find Chas McCormick expendable once he completes his rehab assignment for an oblique strain.
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Trade Deadline Outlook: Cincinnati Reds
The Reds are three games over .500 but 7.5 games out of first place in the NL Central. Their best path to the postseason is a Wild Card berth. They're 2.5 games back at the moment as they look for their first playoff bid since 2020 (just their second since 2013) and their first playoff win since back in 2012.
Record: 50-47 (Playoff odds 11.1%, per FanGraphs)
Other series entries: Rockies, Giants, Phillies, Pirates, Astros, Marlins, Athletics, Orioles, White Sox, Nationals, Cubs, Rays, Dodgers, Braves, Yankees, Angels, Mets, Blue Jays, Mariners
Buy Mode
Potential needs: Corner outfield, first base, second base, reliever
The Reds' primary need, regardless of position, is simply another bat -- or multiple bats -- to bolster what has been a stagnant offense. Ideally, that'd come in the outfield corners. Austin Hays has been great when healthy but has only made it into 44 games due to a trio of IL stints. He and utilityman Gavin Lux lead the team in plate appearances as a left fielder. Jake Fraley, who just returned from a shoulder injury, leads the pack in terms of plate appearances as a right fielder. The Reds have used eight different players in right field and ten in left. No one has more plate appearances at either position than Fraley's 140 in right field.
Fraley and Lux are both hovering around league-average offensive output that's driven largely by plate discipline. Neither is slugging even .400. Fraley has a .152 ISO (slugging minus batting average) that's right in line with the .154 league average. Lux is down at .114. Neither is going to provide much power, and neither can hit left-handed pitching.
A righty-swinging corner outfield bat would fit the Reds nicely -- all the better if it's someone controlled beyond the current season. The Reds are fringe contenders in 2025 but have the rotation talent to make a stronger run in 2026 with better health.
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Trade Deadline Outlook: San Diego Padres
Our team-by-team Trade Deadline Outlook series continues with the Padres. San Diego's top-heavy roster makes it easy to identify the priorities. If they remain resistant to trading either of their top prospects, they could pivot to under-the-radar or rental trade targets.
Record: 52-44 (48.3% playoff probability, per FanGraphs)
Other series entries: Rockies, Giants, Phillies, Pirates, Astros, Marlins, Athletics, Orioles, White Sox, Nationals, Cubs, Rays, Dodgers, Braves, Yankees, Angels, Mets, Blue Jays, Mariners
Buy Mode
Potential needs: Catcher, left field, starting pitcher, utility infielder
San Diego has had the same top few needs going back to the offseason. Free agent departures of Kyle Higashioka and Jurickson Profar left them without answers at catcher and in left field, respectively. The rotation depth has been a question since Joe Musgrove underwent Tommy John surgery. The late-offseason Nick Pivetta signing has been massive, but the back of the rotation still feels tenuous. Low-cost pickups in catcher and left field have not panned out, leaving the Padres to address both positions over the next two and a half weeks.
The Padres have had arguably the worst catching tandem in MLB. Elias Díaz and Martín Maldonado have combined to hit .195/.255/.306 over 327 plate appearances. Neither player rates highly as a pitch framer. While both players, especially Maldonado, have a strong reputation for the unquantifiable aspects of catcher defense (e.g. game-calling, managing a pitching staff), the production has not been there. It speaks to how far former top prospect Luis Campusano has fallen in the organization's eyes that he hasn't gotten an opportunity this year.
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Trade Deadline Outlook: Seattle Mariners
The Mariners are up next in our team-by-team Trade Deadline Outlook series. Seattle last made the postseason in 2022 and has had numerous near misses in recent years under president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto and general manager Justin Hollander. The Mariners' vaunted young rotation has long been the talk of baseball, but the M's also have an excellent farm system they can leverage to improve the roster over the next three weeks.
Record: 49-45 (Playoff probability 61.4%, per FanGraphs)
Other series entries: Rockies, Giants, Phillies, Pirates, Astros, Marlins, Athletics, Orioles, White Sox, Nationals, Cubs, Rays, Dodgers, Braves, Yankees, Angels, Mets, Blue Jays
Buy Mode
Potential Needs: First base, third base, late-inning reliever
The Mariners needed offense throughout the winter but were afforded little to no financial resources to make it happen. Dipoto and Hollander dealt with substantial payroll restrictions for a second straight winter, reportedly trying to stretch a budget of about $15-16MM to acquire as many as three different bats. The resulting additions -- Jorge Polanco, Rowdy Tellez, Donovan Solano -- haven't paid off much. Polanco has been quite productive but has been relegated to DH duty for much of the season due to injuries. Tellez was released last month. Solano has hit better over the past five weeks or so but has been a liability for most of the year.
On top of those underwhelming additions, the M's have been plagued by injuries. Victor Robles suffered a shoulder injury that'll cost him more than half the season. Luke Raley missed more than a month with an oblique injury. Second baseman Ryan Bliss ruptured his biceps in April and will likely miss the remainder of the season.
Fortunately for the Mariners' baseball operations staff, it seems ownership has come around on spending to further bolster the lineup. It's not clear just how far north they're willing to take payroll, but even a relatively modest increase could be a boon for a club that could clearly use help at two corner spots. So, where can the Mariners turn?
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Trade Deadline Outlook: Toronto Blue Jays
MLBTR’s new deadline preview series (available to Front Office subscribers) continues with a look at the Blue Jays, who held a 26-28 record on May 27 and seemed to be headed for another also-ran season. However, the Jays have since won 29 of their last 40 games, pushing Toronto to the top of the AL East. With the postseason now looking like a very realistic possibility, the Jays have plenty of options available to them as they consider roster upgrades.
Record: 55-39 (89.3% playoff probability, per FanGraphs)
Other series entries: Rockies, Giants, Phillies, Pirates, Astros, Marlins, Athletics, Orioles, White Sox, Nationals, Cubs, Rays, Dodgers, Braves, Yankees, Angels, Mets
Buy Mode
Potential needs: Starting pitching, relief pitching, outfield depth, bench depth, possibly third base
Kevin Gausman, Jose Berrios, and Chris Bassitt have been invaluable to the Blue Jays, as the steadiness and durability of the top three starters helped keep the pitching staff on track amidst some early chaos at the back end of the rotation. Minor league signing Eric Lauer has a 2.78 ERA over 55 innings, and his entry into the fourth starter's spot was a key element of Toronto's success over the last six weeks. Max Scherzer has pitched only 23 innings due to his ever-present thumb problems, and it remains to be seen whether or not Scherzer can remain healthy enough to contribute as a full-fledged starter or perhaps as a piggyback starter in front of a long reliever.
Even with Alek Manoah aiming to return from UCL surgery at some point in August, Manoah's own struggles since Opening Day 2023 make him far from a possible savior. The Jays could obviously use an extra arm to help stabilize the starting five, as if Lauer starts to regress or one of the top three starters gets injured, the pitching situation could quickly go south. That would in turn put more pressure on the bullpen, which itself could use some reinforcement after tossing a lot of innings over the first half.
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Trade Deadline Outlook: New York Mets
MLBTR's team-by-team look at the upcoming deadline continues with the Mets. Things have cooled after a hot start, thanks to a mounting number of injuries. But the club is still in playoff position and should be adding this month.
Record: 53-41 (83.1% playoff probability, per FanGraphs)
Other series entries: Rockies, Giants, Phillies, Pirates, Astros, Marlins, Athletics, Orioles, White Sox, Nationals, Cubs, Rays, Dodgers, Braves, Yankees, Angels
Buy Mode
Potential needs: Starting pitching; bullpen help, particularly from the left side; center fielder; infielder; catcher
Life comes at you fast in the baseball world. That's especially true in this era, where pitchers are pushing the human body to its limits. On June 12th, the Mets had a record of 45-24 and a 5.5-game lead over the Phillies in the National League East. They had a healthy rotation and a couple of guys on rehab assignments, almost ready to come off the injured list. At that moment, it seems like Frankie Montas was going to get squeezed to the bullpen and Paul Blackburn to the trade block.
On that June 12th date, Joel Sherman of The New York Post reported that the Mets were getting trade interest on Blackburn due to their apparent rotation surplus. But moments after that report came out, Kodai Senga collapsed on the field with an apparent injury. He would be placed on the IL with a hamstring strain shortly thereafter. Not long after that, Tylor Megill also hit the IL, in his case due to an elbow sprain. A little over a week later, Griffin Canning ruptured his Achilles' tendon and Blackburn hit the IL with a shoulder impingement.
That barrage of injuries has quickly turned a surplus into a deficit and hampered the club's results. They have gone 8-17 over the past few weeks and are now a game and a half behind the Phils in the East. They are still firmly in contention, holding a Wild Card spot, but now seem likelier to add starting pitching.
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Trade Deadline Outlook: Los Angeles Angels
The Angels have hung around the Wild Card mix, exceeding most expectations. Their -57 run differential is fourth-worst in the American League, but they're within two games of .500 and only three games out of a playoff spot. While this still doesn't look like a good team, they may have played well enough to convince the front office to add in hopes of snapping the game's longest active postseason drought.
Record: 45-48 (3.4% playoff odds, per FanGraphs)
Other series entries: Rockies, Giants, Phillies, Pirates, Astros, Marlins, Athletics, Orioles, White Sox, Nationals, Cubs, Rays, Dodgers, Braves, Yankees
Buy Mode
Potential needs: Infielder, mid-rotation starter, high-leverage relief, left-handed bat
The Angels are not going to add a full-time designated hitter, where they have Mike Trout playing every day. Zach Neto and Nolan Schanuel have shortstop and first base secured, respectively. They're probably not going to add a catcher, though they could give more frequent playing time to Travis d'Arnaud in place of the struggling Logan O'Hoppe.
Beyond that, there are a lot of different ways to deepen the position player mix. The outfield is superficially set. Taylor Ward, Jo Adell and Jorge Soler are playing every day from left to right. Ward leads the team with 21 home runs, while Adell has been on a tear lately and is the team's most productive hitter overall. Soler is having a poor season, though, and there's an arguable redundancy to the Angels' current outfield.
All three players hit right-handed (as does Trout, who will be eased back into outfield work following the All-Star break, per Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register). Each of Ward, Adell and Soler are power bats with questionable on-base skills. Adell is a below-average defensive center fielder. He's playing there out of necessity and fits better in a corner. Maybe that's not something that can be addressed this summer, but they'd ideally have a better defender in center and find room for Adell in left or right field.
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