Trade Rumors Front Office Subscriber Chat Transcript
Steve Adams
- Good afternoon! Sorry for the shorter-than-usual notice and slightly moved-up chat time. My kids are home from daycare today so kind of playing this by ear and hoping to be able to get through a full hour while they're napping, ha. Fingers crossed!
- As always, feel free to submit questions in advance, but we'll get going around 1:30pm CT.
- Hello! Let's get underway
Dave
- Duran to LAD for Sheehan, B Miller and Copen to Red Sox Who says no? Thanks
Steve Adams
- Assuming that's Jarren -- I think Sheehan is a fine starting point, but Miller's value is about as low as it's ever been, and Copen is a middle-of-the-road prospect with subpar command. I don't think that package moves the needle for Boston when you're talking about three years of Jarren Duran.
Keeping Tabs on Our Rivals
- What is the benefit of a club option for a player?
Steve Adams
- There really isn't one, just like there's no value to a team when it's conceding to a player option or opt-out clause. Sometimes you agree to a term or provision that you don't necessarily love just to push the other side up/down to a certain point and to get the deal across the finish line.
Ben Cherrington
- Do I hold onto Cruz? If I do where do I play him. If I trade him can I get much for him? So much potential, so little actual production
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Fantasy Baseball: Streaming for Championships (Bullpen)
Hello, friends.
Hopefully, September continues to treat you well as we keep cruising in our fantasy stretch run. We're looking to help you out with all of your streaming needs for a championship run, as categorical specificity may start driving your decisions even more. Translation? You gotta do what you gotta do to squeak out any extra points you can in different categories.
With that in mind, we're going to continue looking at late-season options if you're hunting specific gains. Last week, we went over some hitting options, so naturally, it's time for some arm loving, starting with everyone's favorite fantasy Rubik's Cube to crack -- the bullpen!
First, a couple of notes. We're going to look at players who are currently rostered <40% on Yahoo and will look heavily at numbers from the last 30 days, noting numbers, as well as usage. We'll look more specifically at saves, strikeouts, and holds, but for there is plenty of information included for those mostly looking to amp up their ratios.
Okay, no more preamble. Let's...bullpen!
Saves
We won't bother burying the lede -- there are only a few weeks left, and scrounging a handful of Saves might be the difference in whether you end 2025 as a champion or just a second-place jobber without a belt. The landscape for finding Saves on the wire is as bleak as you might expect around this time of year, but when you need 'em, you need 'em. So pinch your noses, everyone, it's time to seduce the foulest fantasy mistress of them all...
*insert dramatic "dun-dun du-uuuun"*
September Saves!
Shawn Armstrong, TEX (Yahoo: 21%)
Phil Maton might have gotten Texas's last opportunity, but it's Armstrong who has five saves in the last 30 days (two in the last five games). He seems to still be the lead dog among their strong trio of options, along with Robert Garcia and Maton, even if the latter got a chance after Armstrong had picked up the previous two.
However, I would still exercise caution, as danger lurks below his peripheries. As in, a regressional reckoning might still be on his September horizon.
Armstrong's numbers over the last month have been pristine, posting a 1.42 ERA and 0.71 WHIP, but a .152 BABIP and 93% LOB% don't tend to be sustainable over long stretches. Add that to a strikeout rate that has ticked down to a 20% K%, after running a 26% K% previously, and you're left feeling less comfortable.
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The Reds Could Have Starting Pitching To Trade This Offseason
Not long ago, the Reds found themselves in possession of what looked to be a borderline surplus of infielders. Elly De La Cruz, Matt McLain, Jonathan India, Noelvi Marte, Spencer Steer and Christian Encarnacion-Strand all had varying levels big league experience even before Cincinnati signed Jeimer Candelario to a three-year contract. A wide range of opinions on how to best divide the playing time persisted, but the Reds had the makings of a formidable collection of young bats.
Fast forward a few years, and none of that has really panned out. As MLBTR's Anthony Franco explored last month, that group has turned over a fair bit. Marte now patrols the outfield more than the infield. India is in Kansas City, traded last winter in exchange for right-hander Brady Singer. Candelario was released halfway through what has turned out to be a significant misstep of a signing. Encarnacion-Strand has been beset by injury. Steer has bounced all around the diamond, including in the outfield, but he's settled in more at first base. De La Cruz is entrenched at shortstop. McLain, who's struggled in the wake of 2024 shoulder surgery, remains an ongoing question mark. Top prospect Sal Stewart was recently promoted to the majors for his first look, giving them yet another high-upside infield piece to consider.
Even with that prior glut of infielders, the Reds felt compelled to trade for Ke'Bryan Hayes at this year's deadline and infielder/outfielder Gavin Lux last offseason. The overall offense in Cincinnati has been tepid, at best. The Reds, despite playing in perhaps the most homer-friendly park in the sport, rank 23rd in MLB with 146 home runs. They're 13th in runs scored, 16th in batting average and on-base percentage, and 21st in slugging percentage. The offense is ... fine. It's not a glaring deficiency, but it's also not going to turn any heads.
On the other side of the game, however, the Reds have enjoyed a more significant boom. Cincinnati's pitching staff is virtually teeming with enticing young options. Even with Nick Martinez and deadline pickup Zack Littell slated to become free agents, the Reds are deep in rotation arms. The aforementioned Singer is the priciest of the bunch heading into 2026, as he'll be due a raise on his $8.75MM salary, presumably pushing him past $12MM. The rest of the group is generally affordable, if not making at or very near the league minimum.
It's a fine line to walk, of course, as any "surplus" in baseball can dry out in a hurry, but this version of the Reds seems well positioned to flip some of that pitching talent in exchange for some offensive firepower when the offseason rolls around.
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MLBTR Mailbag: Giants, Nationals, Grisham, Kim, Mets
This week's mailbag gets into potential offseason targets for the Giants and Nationals, the potential free agencies of Trent Grisham and Ha-Seong Kim, and the Mets' current six-man rotation.
Neil asks:
Giants fan here. They are killing me with this Jekyll and Hyde act on offense this year. It's the .500 team I was expecting but they need more team speed and the OF defense gives me a headache. Who should they target in free agency?
Todd asks:
I see my Giants are hanging on (barely!) in the West, but looking forward to next year, who do they need to acquire to be given an 'A' for their off-season next March? Obviously pitching is needed, I'm interested in specific names who they should be targeting. Thanks!
Let's do a Giants rundown!
- C: Having Patrick Bailey as the starter represents a choice to sacrifice offense at the position for Gold Glove defense. That strategy can work, but you'd ideally make up for the dead spot in the lineup in some other way.
- 1B: Rafael Devers seems to be improving defensively; he's been splitting time at first base with Dominic Smith. In August, Shayna Rubin of the San Francisco Chronicle wrote that the situation "could turn into a timeshare dependent on top prospect Bryce Eldridge’s development at the position." Eldridge, 21 in October, has a 100 wRC+ in 260 Triple-A plate appearances. He's still the 19th-ranked prospect in baseball, so if and when he figures out Triple-A, he's expected to share first base and DH with Devers.
- 2B: Tyler Fitzgerald, the Giants' innings leader at the position this year, was optioned to Triple-A a few weeks ago. Since then we've mostly seen Casey Schmitt, with rookie Christian Koss mixed in. Former top prospect Marco Luciano, at times mentioned as a potential future second baseman, has spent the entire year at Triple-A and has been playing left field.
- SS: Willy Adames is settling in with a 149 wRC+ since July.
- 3B: Matt Chapman has had a couple of IL stints for hand injuries, but he's still having a typical good year.
- LF: Heliot Ramos has hit decently with a 111 wRC+ (and no platoon splits), but he's been one of the game's worst defensive left fielders this year. As such, he's been worth only 1.1 fWAR. Ramos is under team control through 2029 and won't yet be arbitration eligible in 2026.
- CF: Jung Hoo Lee has been solid in his first full MLB season and has a 133 wRC+ since July.
- RF: With Mike Yastrzemski traded to Kansas City, the Giants have been giving Drew Gilbert and Luis Matos some run. The samples are too small to really tell right now, but perhaps they could form an adequate platoon.
- DH: It's been Devers, Smith, and Wilmer Flores here. Smith and Flores may depart as free agents, but the Giants shouldn't do anything major here given Eldridge's trajectory and Devers' defensive limitations.
The Giants' offense this year ranks ninth in the NL with 4.37 runs scored per game. Their wRC+ is an even 100.
That's all the way up to 118 since August, third-best in the NL. The club has been carried by veterans Devers, Lee, and Chapman in that time, with bonus contributions from Matos and Smith. For next year, the hope is that Eldridge can come up and contribute, but the Giants can't really count on it.
Second base seems like a clear need for the Giants. Gleyber Torres will be a free agent again, and the trade market could offer a few options such as Luis Garcia Jr.
The Giants could use a big bat in the corner outfield. Kyle Tucker is the obvious choice. The versatile Cody Bellinger would also fit well in San Francisco. Adolis Garcia would be a cheaper bounceback candidate.
For Neil's outfield defense concerns, moving on from Ramos would help. Defensive upgrades could include Bellinger, Wilyer Abreu, and Luis Robert Jr.
What's the outlook on the starting pitching side?
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Trade Rumors Front Office Subscriber Chat Transcript
Steve Adams
- Good afternoon! Hope everyone enjoyed the weekend. I'll get going at 3pm CT, but as always, feel free to send in some questions ahead of time.
- Hey all! Sorry for the delay
- Lot of news happening right now as well.
Tony
- If Sonny Gray agreed to waive his NTC, what could the Cardinals expect to get in return? How underwater is his contract? Thanks!
Steve Adams
- I don't really think there's any surplus value there. You can say there's no such thing as a bad one-year deal, but Gray is being paid $35MM next year and has a $5MM buyout on a 2027 option. Is he getting $40MM if he goes to the open market and says he'll only sign a one-year deal? I doubt that. Even if you think it's not that much of an overpay, there's no excess value. I think they'd probably have to cover part of the salary to get anything of real note.
thebeatlesshow
- OK, Steve, you're the Astros. Next year, do you put Issac Parades at 2nd and move Altuve to Left Field? Move Parades to left field? Move Parades to DH and play Yordan to left...or just trade Parades? What would you do?
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Front Office Subscriber Chat Transcript
Anthony Franco
- Hey everyone, hope you've enjoyed your week!
- Darragh's off today so I'll have to wrap this up right around 4:00 Central to move to news coverage. Let's get going
RAGBRAI
- How do you see Brewers SP lining up in a five game series?
- Does MeGill make it back to Milwaukee next week?
Anthony Franco
- On the rotation: Peralta, Woodruff, Priester, Q with Misiorwoski available in relief (especially on Quintana's start when they'll have a really quick hook)
- Pat Murphy said that Megill threw a bullpen yesterday. Believe Adam McCalvy reported that they're targeting the 16th (beginning of the Angels series) for his return
RoxTalks
- Thoughts on the Valdez-Salazar situation?
Anthony Franco
- I'm skeptical that Framber deliberately crossed up his own catcher so he could nail him in the chest, but not showing any level of concern after it happened because you're pissed you just gave up a grand slam is a bad look
- Salazar did his best postgame to downplay it, as did Joe Espada. I don't think it matters much for the Astros' season but it doesn't reflect well on Valdez even if it is a one-off situation and I imagine he'll have to answer questions about it from some teams when he gets to free agency
?
- How/why is Roki Sasaki so bad? I know he's hurt but he has been equally as awful in OKC
Anthony Franco
- The command is not good and I think most people (myself included) under appreciated how much of a problem his fastball shape -- very low spin that leads it to play below its velocity at the top of the strike zone -- would be an issue. That's easier to get away with when he's pumping 98-101 as he was for most of his time in Japan than it is at 95-96
- He's still talented and I think there's a chance he can succeed the way Hurston Waldrep is for Atlanta by leaning so heavily on the split, but he's more of a project than I expected. Obviously doesn't help that he's been working with diminished stuff while fighting shoulder problems the whole time
Safeco Field Redux
- I'm curious: How often do you think game announcers err when thy call a pitch; that is, is what they identify as a slider actually a sweeper or even a curve? And while I'm here, does a knuckle curve act differently than a standard curve?
Anthony Franco
- Yeah I think this happens all the time. Backup sliders can look like changeups, breaking pitches blend together so much that it's very difficult to differentiate slider vs. sweeper or curve unless the pitcher's throwing them at a 4-5 MPH velocity differential
- A lot of times a pitcher will call a breaking ball something different than the pitch classification systems will. "Sweeper" vs. slider wasn't even really in the lexicon until a couple years ago when Statcast tried to get more granular in splitting the deGrom slider from the 81 MPH pitch that you'll get from a low-slot lefty specialist
-
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The Guardians’ Surprising Pitching Need
When it comes to pitching development, Cleveland has been a model organization for years. The Guardians have churned out quality starter after quality starter. Among the names they've either drafted or acquired as a prospect and developed into a true big leaguer are Corey Kluber, Carlos Carrasco, Shane Bieber, Trevor Bauer, Mike Clevinger, Tanner Bibee, Gavin Williams, Logan Allen, Aaron Civale, Zach Plesac, Cal Quantrill, Danny Salazar and Triston McKenzie. Journeyman Ben Lively turned his career around in Cleveland recently. Matthew Boyd parlayed eight strong starts with the '24 Guardians into a two-year deal with the Cubs and looks completely revitalized.
Not all of those arms have sustained their success, of course. Injuries and general pitcher attrition hit the Guardians, just like any other club. Salazar, McKenzie and plenty of others in the past decade have run into health troubles that derailed their careers. Bieber's 2024 lasted only two starts before Tommy John surgery, and he was traded to the Blue Jays in July before making it back to a big league mound in Cleveland (albeit in a deal netting a pretty strong pitching prospect, Khal Stephen). Daniel Espino went from the sport's top pitching prospect to the poster boy for the "What if..." crowd after a series of significant injuries -- including two shoulder surgeries -- blew up his promising career. He's still with the organization but hasn't pitched in a game since 2022 (when he tossed only 18 1/3 innings).
The Guardians have had similar success in the bullpen, churning out names like Emmanuel Clase, Cade Smith, Trevor Stephan, Hunter Gaddis, Cody Allen, Bryan Shaw, Sam Hentges, James Karinchak and more. As with the starters -- even more so, in fact -- injuries and attrition have whittled away at the group, but Cleveland has generally been able to bank on piecing together a strong relief corps while rarely investing significant money to do so.
Over the past decade, Cleveland starters rank second in the majors in innings pitched and are tied for fifth in ERA. The rotation has been so good that Cleveland relievers have pitched the fewest innings of any team in the game. Their relievers, unsurprisingly, lead MLB in earned run average in that span.
We've come to take for granted that the Guardians will just produce a good pitching staff even when they lack clear name value. Almost as if by magic, they seemingly pluck strong pitching performances from thin air. That hasn't quite been the case in 2025, however, and there's reason to wonder whether they can get back on track in 2026.
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MLB Mailbag: Tucker, Bellinger, Grisham, Cardinals, Royals, Angels, Twins
This week's mailbag looks at potential Kyle Tucker suitors, the chances of the Yankees retaining Cody Bellinger and Trent Grisham, the Angels' history in free agency, extension ideas for the Royals and Cardinals, and what the future holds for the Twins.
Colin asks:
Where are some realistic landing spots for Kyle Tucker this offseason?
Why not just assess the viability of Tucker for all 30 teams? I'm sure Tucker's agents at Excel Sports Management already have.
- White Sox: In their June statement, the team said that Justin Ishbia "will make capital infusions into the White Sox as a limited partner in 2025 and 2026 that will be used to pay down existing debt and support ongoing team operations." The team's long-term books are already clean. Could Ishbia announce his presence by signing Tucker to a contract worth perhaps more than six times the team's current record deal of $75MM? Chalk it up as highly unlikely, yet still more likely than it's been in a long time.
- Guardians: No chance.
- Tigers: The club's dalliance with Alex Bregman last winter was notable, but that still wouldn't have been a top-three free agent deal. Tucker is highly unlikely here based on how the Tigers have operated since Mike Ilitch passed away in 2017.
- Royals: No chance.
- Twins: No chance.
- Orioles: Payroll-wise, the Orioles could manage this, but we've been saying that sort of thing for a while now. We've only seen one offseason under David Rubenstein, and it topped out with Tyler O'Neill's $49.5MM deal, but he could theoretically surprise us.
- Red Sox: On a team with Jarren Duran, Ceddanne Rafaela, Roman Anthony, and Wilyer Abreu, signing Tucker doesn't seem to make sense. The Red Sox were in on Juan Soto last winter, and Duran or Abreu could be traded, so we won't rule it out quite yet.
- Yankees: With Trent Grisham and Cody Bellinger up for free agency and Jasson Dominguez failing to assert himself, there is a reasonable case to be made here for Tucker. There's enough payroll space to make it work as well.
- Rays: I was going to write "no chance" and move on, but Tucker is from Tampa and Patrick Zalupski should assume ownership of the Rays before the outfielder signs. Given that Zalupski can't magically change the Rays' market size, he doesn't have a plan for a new stadium in place, and he doesn't have Steve Cohen type net worth, this is still pretty close to "no chance."
- Blue Jays: Nathan Lukes, Daulton Varsho, and Addison Barger make up a typical Jays outfield right now, with George Springer, Myles Straw, and Davis Schneider also drawing some starts and Anthony Santander on the IL. Re-signing Bo Bichette or adding starting pitching would seem more urgent, but there's no particular impediment to the Blue Jays pursuing Tucker. Plus, Excel did the Springer deal with the Blue Jays.
- Athletics: The A's made their statement last winter with a trio of $60-something million contracts (Luis Severino, Lawrence Butler, and Brent Rooker). That's still a very far cry from Tucker's stratosphere, and he's not going to elect to make Sutter Health Park his new home for the next few years.
- Astros: There's no evidence the Astros got anywhere with extension talks when they had Tucker, and no reason to think Jim Crane will break precedent and give him a huge contract on the open market.
- Angels: With Anthony Rendon's contract almost off the books, could the Angels try for a major free agent once again? There's no compelling reason to think so, but Arte Moreno is at least capable of swimming in these waters.
- Mariners: The Robinson Cano deal happened nearly 12 years ago; the Mariners would likely have to similarly bowl over the competition to convince Tucker to come there. Consider it unlikely, but not absurd.
- Rangers: The Rangers are on track to stay under the CBT and thus reset their payor status. Adding a fourth huge contract running into a player's late 30s might not be the best long-term move, and starting pitching seems more urgent, but a pursuit of Tucker can't be ruled out.
Moving on to the National League:
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Trevor Rogers’ Reemergence
At the 2024 trade deadline, the Orioles traded upper minors hitters Kyle Stowers and Connor Norby to the Marlins for reclamation starter Trevor Rogers. Many perceived it as an overpay, and the deal immediately went south. Rogers, who was carrying a 4.53 ERA for Miami, allowed 16 runs in 19 innings over his first four starts with the Orioles. Baltimore optioned him to Triple-A within three weeks and he was a non-factor for a postseason bound club.
This season didn't start out any better. Rogers began the year on the injured list with a right knee subluxation. Baltimore optioned him back to Triple-A when he was healthy. Outside of one strong spot start on May 24, the 6'5" lefty wasn't on the radar into the middle of June. Baltimore's big league rotation -- which was without Grayson Rodriguez, Kyle Bradish and Zach Eflin -- pitched so poorly that their season was more or less finished by the time they recalled Rogers on June 18.
Stowers added insult to injury by carrying Miami's lineup with a pair of power barrages in April and July. He's streaky but now looks like the Marlins' best position player. Even if Norby doesn't work out, Miami is thrilled with their end of the deal. As recently as the middle of June, it looked like a complete bust for Baltimore. It wasn't a lock they'd even tender Rogers a contract for his final season of arbitration.
Two months later, Rogers is the favorite to be on the Camden Yards mound for Opening Day 2026. He had a rocky first start after being recalled, giving up three runs without escaping the third inning against Tampa Bay. He has taken the ball 12 times since then and been the best pitcher in baseball.
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The Nationals Need To Lean Further Into Their Rebuild
This wasn't how the Nationals hoped their rebuild would play out. When now-former GM Mike Rizzo traded Max Scherzer and Trea Turner to the Dodgers back in 2021, the hope was that dismantling a stacked roster could lead to an accelerated turnaround. In the span of just over a calendar year, Washington traded Scherzer, Turner and Juan Soto, in addition to short-term veterans like Kyle Schwarber, Jon Lester, Brad Hand, Yan Gomes, Daniel Hudson, Josh Harrison, Josh Bell, Jeimer Candelario, Dylan Floro and Hunter Harvey.
It obviously takes years to fully evaluate the extent of any given trade, but it's more than fair to say the slate of moves largely hasn't panned out. Rizzo's return for Soto/Bell has been terrific, with the Nats netting James Wood, MacKenzie Gore, CJ Abrams, Robert Hassell III and Jarlin Susana. The first four are current big leaguers -- the first three are stars or close to it -- and Susana is now a consensus top-100 pitching prospect. The trade of Lester brought back Lane Thomas, who was a solid regular for a few years before being traded to Cleveland last summer in a deal that netted the Nats current big league infielder Jose Tena and left-hander Alex Clemmey -- currently their No. 3 prospect at Baseball America. It's a nice return for one-plus seasons of Thomas.
The rest of the Nationals' haul, however, hasn't really panned out. Washington doesn't have any above-average regulars to show for the rest of that slate of trades. If they'd focused squarely on low-level minor leaguers who were still bubbling up to the top of a stacked farm system, that'd be one thing .... but it's not the case. Washington's farm system ranks 21st in the majors, per Baseball America, and that's after benefiting from the No. 1 pick in this summer's draft. ESPN's Kiley McDaniel ranks their farm 22nd. The MLB.com team ranks them 23rd. For a last place team that's been rebuilding for more than four years, that's not sufficient.
Let's dive into what the Nats received from that group of trades, what critical decisions lie ahead in the offseason, and how boldly they could act in order to turn things around.
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