Trade Deadline Outlook: Los Angeles Angels
The Angels have hung around the Wild Card mix, exceeding most expectations. Their -57 run differential is fourth-worst in the American League, but they're within two games of .500 and only three games out of a playoff spot. While this still doesn't look like a good team, they may have played well enough to convince the front office to add in hopes of snapping the game's longest active postseason drought.
Record: 45-48 (3.4% playoff odds, per FanGraphs)
Other series entries: Rockies, Giants, Phillies, Pirates, Astros, Marlins, Athletics, Orioles, White Sox, Nationals, Cubs, Rays, Dodgers, Braves, Yankees
Buy Mode
Potential needs: Infielder, mid-rotation starter, high-leverage relief, left-handed bat
The Angels are not going to add a full-time designated hitter, where they have Mike Trout playing every day. Zach Neto and Nolan Schanuel have shortstop and first base secured, respectively. They're probably not going to add a catcher, though they could give more frequent playing time to Travis d'Arnaud in place of the struggling Logan O'Hoppe.
Beyond that, there are a lot of different ways to deepen the position player mix. The outfield is superficially set. Taylor Ward, Jo Adell and Jorge Soler are playing every day from left to right. Ward leads the team with 21 home runs, while Adell has been on a tear lately and is the team's most productive hitter overall. Soler is having a poor season, though, and there's an arguable redundancy to the Angels' current outfield.
All three players hit right-handed (as does Trout, who will be eased back into outfield work following the All-Star break, per Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register). Each of Ward, Adell and Soler are power bats with questionable on-base skills. Adell is a below-average defensive center fielder. He's playing there out of necessity and fits better in a corner. Maybe that's not something that can be addressed this summer, but they'd ideally have a better defender in center and find room for Adell in left or right field.
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Trade Deadline Outlook: New York Yankees
MLBTR's team-by-team look at the upcoming deadline continues with the Yankees. The Bronx Bombers are always trying to win the World Series and this year will certainly be no exception. The American League East is tight, as is the Wild Card race, but the Yanks are obviously going to do everything they can to strengthen the roster for the playoff push.
Record: 51-41 (89.8% playoff probability, per FanGraphs)
Buy Mode
Potential needs: Starting pitcher, third baseman, relievers
Before the 2025 season even began, the Yankee rotation got blown up. Luis Gil was diagnosed with a lat strain in early March, meaning he was destined to miss a decent chunk of the first half, at least. A few days later, even more ominous news came out, with Gerrit Cole getting some tests done on his elbow. The worst-case scenario eventually came to pass, as he underwent Tommy John surgery.
Cole is going to miss the entire season. Gil could be back in the mix at some point but is still on the injured list and hasn't begun a rehab assignment. Despite those two major challenges, the remaining starters have held the club above water. The rotation has a collective 3.69 earned run average this year, good for eighth in the majors. Lefties Max Fried and Carlos Rodón are each earning their salaries this year. Guys like Clarke Schmidt, Will Warren and Ryan Yarbrough have done good work supporting Fried and Rodón. Marcus Stroman just returned from the IL, but Yarbrough and Schmidt both landed on the shelf recently. In Schmidt's case, he will undergo Tommy John surgery and won't be back this year.
Looking ahead to the club's playoff rotation, Fried is a lock. Rodón would be as well, though his injury track record is well known at this point. Warren tossed around 130 innings in each of the past three years and is up to 90 so far this season. Will there be any questions about his playoff effectiveness as he pushes into the 150-175 range? Stroman wasn't trusted in the club's playoff push last year and they tried to trade him in the winter. Presumably, he hasn't increased his standing in 2025, since he's spent most of the year injured. Cam Schlittler is getting a chance in the majors now but won't have much time to prove himself prior to the deadline. Adding a starter is therefore a priority and general manager Brian Cashman has confirmed as much.
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Trade Deadline Outlook: Atlanta Braves
On June 18, Braves president of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos said Atlanta is "not selling." They've gone 7-11 and lost two of their three best starting pitchers to long-term injuries since then. They're 11 games under .500 and have dropped behind the Marlins in the NL East standings. The front office may not have wanted to sell, but the team has left them no choice.
The more interesting question is whether they feel it's necessary to make a major shakeup. They could move a couple rentals and run it back with mostly the same roster in 2026. That'd be a signal they view this season as an injury-wrecked aberration. That wouldn't address some of the issues -- a lack of rotation depth, zero production from the bottom half of the lineup -- that have tanked their '25 season. The Braves have committed to the same core with a boatload of long-term extensions. Do they feel they need a significant change to that group?
Record: 40-51 (5.1% playoff odds, per FanGraphs)
Other series entries: Rockies, Giants, Phillies, Pirates, Astros, Marlins, Athletics, Orioles, White Sox, Nationals, Cubs, Rays, Dodgers
Sell Mode
Impending Free Agents: Marcell Ozuna, Raisel Iglesias, Rafael Montero
The Braves only have three rentals, none of whom would be a massive trade chip. Montero is a league average middle reliever who could be cashed in for a lottery ticket prospect. Ozuna and Iglesias are bigger names and more interesting trade targets, but they've each had inconsistent seasons and are quite expensive.
Iglesias, 35, is playing on a $16MM salary. The veteran righty lost his hold on the closer role last month. He has performed better since moving into more low-leverage situations, rattling off 12 1/3 frames of four-run ball since the beginning of June. Iglesias has not allowed a home run in that stretch, a big turnaround after he gave up seven longballs through the season's first two months. He still has a strong strikeout and walk profile, but he's carrying a career-worst 4.81 earned run average over 33 2/3 innings on the year. The Braves would probably need to pay down part of the contract to move him for a semi-notable prospect.
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MLB Mailbag: Cardinals, Rangers, J-Rod, Yankees, Bichette
This week's mailbag gets into the Cardinals' deadline approach, the lefty relief market, offseason ideas for the Rangers, the Mariners trading Julio Rodriguez, who the Yankees could give up in trades, Bo Bichette's future, and much more.
Rich asks:
With two bad performances by starting pitchers, Miles Mikolas and Erick Fedde, will the Cardinals seek a trade for at least one veteran starting pitcher?
Sam asks:
Bernie Miklasz who seems pretty well sourced was talking about the Cardinals potentially trading Nootbaar. If they do that, what sort of return would the Cardinals get? His results are not good but his statcast data is great.
At the time of this writing, the Cardinals are 1.5 games out in the wild card with a 33.5% chance at the playoffs.
The first question reminds me a bit of the 2021 season, when John Mozeliak's Cardinals reached deadline day as a .500 club with just a 2-3% chance at the playoffs. The club picked up veterans Jon Lester and J.A. Happ at the deadline, with Mozeliak saying, "We wanted to try to do it in a way that we wouldn't be giving up a lot of future talent; that was something that was sort of critical in our decision-making. Needless to say, today we felt like we took a couple steps forward without having to sacrifice our future."
The 2021 team went 39-21 from July 30th onward before losing the (lone) NL Wild Card game against the Dodgers. Lester and Happ gave the Cardinals exactly what they wanted: innings. Innings are generally what Mikolas and Fedde provide, having combined for 349 of them last year. Sonny Gray has been excellent, while Matthew Liberatore and Andre Pallante have been solid.
Mikolas and Fedde do deserve ERAs around 5.00, and there's logic to seeking an upgrade - either one controllable beyond this year, or one in the Lester/Happ mold who doesn't cost much. In my recent Cubs Trade Deadline Outlook, I named just about every potentially available starting pitcher I could think of, though Steve Adams suggested I add Drew Rasmussen. The Cardinals have a very real shot at reaching the playoffs this year - perhaps more than they expected coming into the season - and I do think they should add a starter.
In an article Monday, Katie Woo of The Athletic noted that Fedde may not take his next turn in the rotation, and Mikolas shouldn't feel comfortable either. Michael McGreevy is the next man up. The 25-year-old has excelled in Triple-A and can probably do better than Fedde.
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Trade Deadline Outlook: Los Angeles Dodgers
MLBTR’s new team-by-team deadline preview series (available to Front Office subscribers) continues with a look at the reigning World Series champions, who are laser-focused on defending their title. The Dodgers have again weathered a storm of pitching injuries to take control of the NL West, and at this point are looking primarily at adding a few finishing touches to lengthen what is already a championship-caliber roster.
Record: 56-37 (99.3% playoff probability, per FanGraphs)
Buy Mode
Potential needs: Relief pitching, infield depth, outfield depth, rotation depth
In an example of how deadline plans can quickly evolve, this list of needs would have been shorter if the Dodgers' outlook piece had been written even a week ago. Just within the last few days, Max Muncy sustained a bone bruise in his left knee that will keep him out until mid-August, Enrique Hernandez was placed on the 10-day injured list due to lingering elbow inflammation that has been bothering the utilityman for over a month, Tommy Edman suffered a hairline fracture in his right baby toe after being hit by a pitch, and Teoscar Hernandez is day-to-day after fouling a ball off his left foot.
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Trade Deadline Outlook: Tampa Bay Rays
The Rays are up next in MLBTR's team-by-team look at the upcoming trade deadline. Tampa Bay has weathered an uneven start to the season and emerged in the thick of the division race. The Rays are currently six games over .500, good for third place in the American League East but sole possession of the American League's second Wild Card spot. They're five games back of the division-leading Blue Jays.
While most clubs tend to pick a buy or sell lane, the Rays are always open to a bit of a mixed-bag approach. They're constantly working to walk the line between rebuilding and contending and are never afraid to trade from the major league roster. President of baseball operations Erik Neander and his staff will be looking to add to the roster ahead of what looks like a very likely playoff run, but the Rays will probably still get some calls on some of their pricey veterans with dwindling levels of club control.
Record: 49-43 (57.3% playoff odds, per FanGraphs)
Other series entries: Rockies, Giants, Phillies, Pirates, Astros, Marlins, Athletics, Orioles, White Sox, Nationals, Cubs
Buy Mode
Potential needs: Outfield, catcher, right-handed bat, another reliever
It's always tough to identify exact needs on a well-rounded club. That's the Rays in 2025, but the outfield has been a revolving door of less-than-ideal options. Kameron Misner has seen the most plate appearances of any Ray in the outfield this year, and he's batted .214/.274/.347 in 216 plate appearances there. He faded badly after a hot start and was optioned to Triple-A Durham in late June.
Each of Jake Mangum, Josh Lowe, Christopher Morel and Chandler Simpson has received between 166 and 206 plate appearances in the outfield. Mangum and Morel have hit well but done so with the help of plenty of good fortune on batted balls. Simpson is getting his second look in the majors and using his speed and elite contact skills to produce solid offense. He could lead the majors in stolen bases but has 20-grade power (on the 20-80 scale), a well below-average walk rate and shaky defense in center. Lowe was terrific in 2023, pedestrian in 2024, and is somewhere in between in 2025.
The Rays have enough outfield options that they could mix-and-match for the rest of the season, playing the hot hand and rotating outfielders based on matchups they deem favorable. It's a tactic we've seen before from manager Kevin Cash (at various places on the roster), but some more stability and more power, in particular, might be welcome. Rays outfielders have been about league-average offensively on the whole, but they're benefiting from a .339 average on balls in play and rank 27th in the majors with a .121 isolated power mark (slugging percentage minus batting average). Only the Guardians and Royals have received fewer home runs from their outfield than the Rays' total of 21.
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Trade Deadline Outlook: Chicago Cubs
Led by All-Star starters Kyle Tucker and Pete Crow-Armstrong, the Cubs are in a great position to return to the playoffs for the first time since 2020. Their position player mix could use some tweaks, but the team's priority will be its battered rotation.
Jed Hoyer has had the top chair in the Cubs' baseball operations department since Theo Epstein stepped down in November 2020. Hoyer was the number two man in Epstein's front office before that, after he'd led the Padres' front office for two years. He's played a large part for "buy mode" contenders across many trade deadlines and has been unafraid to move prospects and good young players. Hoyer sent a strong "all-in" message in December by trading last year's first rounder Cam Smith along with three years of Isaac Paredes and five of Hayden Wesneski for one year of Kyle Tucker.
Hoyer is in the last year of a five-year contract with the Cubs, so it's a bit odd to have him making long-term decisions for the franchise with his own future in doubt. Back when Epstein stepped down, he said, "The organization faces many decisions this winter that carry long-term consequences; those types of decisions are best made by someone who will be here for a long period rather than for just one more year." Perhaps an extension for Hoyer is forthcoming. For now, I'm sure, his focus is on shoring up the first-place Cubs for a deep playoff run.
Record: 54-36 (94.6% playoff probability)
Buy Mode
Potential needs: Two starting pitchers, starting third baseman, lefty-mashing first baseman, general relief help
With Jameson Taillon on the IL into August due to a calf strain, the Cubs' rotation is down to two reliable established Major Leaguers: Shota Imanaga and Matthew Boyd. Expected ace Justin Steele is out for the season due to Tommy John surgery.
Taillon still figures to be part of the playoff picture for the Cubs. Colin Rea and Cade Horton are in the rotation at present, and Ben Brown made 14 starts before being optioned in late June. Veteran Chris Flexen made 30 starts last year. Jordan Wicks got the call four days ago but may be used in a long relief role. Javier Assad, who started 29 games last year, has been dealing with an oblique injury all season. It's not clear what the Cubs will get from him in 2025.
There are enough rotation options on hand to get through the regular season, but the goal is to win the World Series. Boyd, the Cubs' All-Star lefty, is 34 years old and hasn't shouldered a full workload since 2019. This team needs to add two starting pitchers, including at least one who can start a playoff game.
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Front Office Subscriber Chat Transcript
- Hey everyone, hope you enjoyed the holiday weekend!
- Steve stretched his into a four-day weekend so I'm in today and he'll take the usual Friday slot. Going to stay around an hour on this one as a result
- Let's get rolling
Cactusflair
- Why didnt the Nats actually try to improve the team in this past off season?? Felt like outside of Sirotka signing they did nothing.
Denise Dunbar
- Do you think the Nats' first pick in next week's draft will be even more telling after the Rizzo firing? It seems to me if they pick Holliday, they're saying the rebuild is ongoing for quite a while. In that instance, I think they should trade Gore if they can get a haul for him. Conversely, if they take one of the college lefties, to me that means they think they could possibly contend for a wildcard next year and might signal they plan to spend more this offseason. Interestingly, they sent out a season ticket holder survey about 10 days ago asking lots of questions about how satisfied we were with the direction of the team. I lambasted ownership, but not management, in responses. But I also wonder if this survey and its overall results factored into their decision making?
Anthony Franco
- Two of a number of Nats questions in here. Martinez getting fired didn't really surprise me but I was a little taken aback that they moved on from Rizzo. I get why it happened, but I didn't see that coming
- I actually think their offseason made sense. They felt they were still a year off from being competitive and didn't think a Danny Jansen signing or Eugenio Suárez trade would've moved the needle. Hard for me to disagree with that. They probably should've been involved at the top of the rotation market, but that's as much an ownership question as it is a front office one
- Obviously, their series of low-cost bullpen pickups especially blew up, but I actually think they've shown progress this year in the more meaningful stuff (Wood's emergence as a superstar, Gore's development, etc.)
- I wouldn't read too much into the #1 pick as a sign of their long-term direction. Even if they do take Holliday (or Eli Willits, I guess), it's not uncommon for top high school draftees to get to the majors within two or three years. It'd just be a sign that they think those guys are better prospects than the top college pitcher on their board
Opt-Out
- Is this the trade deadline someone with an opt-out or player option finally gets traded?
Anthony Franco
- Happened with Scherzer a few years ago, though he preemptively exercised the option to make it happen. I think someone will take the risk on Lugo this summer
- He's obviously going to opt out if he's healthy, $15M if he does blow out would suck but isn't catastrophic (it's what teams gamble on the current version of Scherzer and Verlander and Alex Cobb), and the supply of starting pitching is really light
Edward Cabrera
- What does a trade package look like for me and who do you think will be calling Bendix the most about it? Is there a world where Sandy and I get dealt to the same team?
Anthony Franco
- He fits anywhere really (aside from the deep rebuild teams like Colorado and the White Sox). Cheap, amidst a potential breakout, two and a half seasons of control
- Yankees, Cubs and Padres are the first three that come to mind but there aren't many places he could land that would surprise me
- Seems less likely that someone would do the Alcantara/Cabrera package deal. They're both good enough to support a strong return individually, and the Fish would probably be better off splitting them up and shopping each individually. No guarantee they move Cabrera at all
-
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Front Office Subscriber Chat Transcript
- Do you want to spend today at a cookout with your friends, family and neighbors? Or do you want to spend it talking to a Canadian about baseball on the internet?
- Use your freedom to decide on that and I'll be back at 2pm Central. Feel free to drop questions in the meantime.
- Hello.
- Do you hear the chimes of freedom where you are?
- There's construction going on outside my home, so I can barely hear myself think.
- Let's enjoy discussing baseball together.
Western skies
- Happy four days after Canada Day! The Braves are saying all the right things, but they’re going to more than tweak before the deadline, right? I’ve thought for some time they will use the All-Star stuff as a showcase/diversion before making any big moves. Then what?
Steve
- Do you think the Braves sell after the Schwellenbach news? Would Olson to the Red Sox for Casas plus some other pieces be possible?
notsohotlanta
- As the Braves continue their quest to prove they are pulseless ,when does the sale/trade begin? When does Snitker and the hitting staff exit?
Darragh McDonald
- Barring a red-hot streak in the coming weeks, I do think Atlanta needs to accept their fate and sell. I assume that, internally, they are aware things aren't going well.
- I understand why AA felt the need to project outward confidence. You don't want to tell your players you're waving the white flag.
- But making a run with no Sale, Schwellenbach, Lopez or AJSS is really hard to see.
- FanGraphs gives them just a 13.5% chance of making the playoffs as of this moment. Unless they crack off a 13-game winning streak or something, I think they will do some selling, at least of impending free agents.
- I don't think Olson will be available.
- As for Snitker and the staff, that I don't know. The World Series victory surely gives him a lot of rope but things have been trending down for a few years now.
-
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MLB Mailbag: Braves, Cubs, Sasaki, Angels, Volpe
This week's mailbag is a bit of a hybrid. MLBTR founder Tim Dierkes handles the first handful of questions, while Anthony Franco takes the final few to round it out. We'll get into the Braves' continually sinking playoff chances, trade possibilities for the Cubs, Roki Sasaki's disappointing debut season, deadline outlooks for a handful of bubble teams, and much more!
Kevin asks:
Should the Braves attempt a rebuild, move on from some of the core that is underperforming again and develop a new draft philosophy? Maybe draft some hitters?
Phillip asks:
I am a Braves Fan, win or lose and I watch them every night. This season and the season they won the World Series are 2 different entities. Why would the Braves not trade Raisel Iglesias and Marcell Ozuna? I mean we have so many weaknesses, we have 3 starting pitchers, bottom of our lineup is worst in baseball and our relievers are among the worst in baseball. What could we get for Ozuna and Iglesias?
It's worth considering that the 2021 Braves were 30-35 with 12% playoff odds on 6-16-21. On 7-2-21, that had risen to 40-41 with a 20.6% chance at the playoffs. The current team is worse at 38-46, but still holds a 17.2% chance at the playoffs. It's not that different from where the World Series-winning team once was.
Still, the Braves are 7.5 games out in the Wild Card. They've played like a 73-win team. To have a shot at the playoffs they'd need to play more like a 100-win team. I'm more on the side of Braves fans here than I am on the side of FanGraphs Playoff Odds. And these guys wrote in before news of Spencer Schwellenbach's injury.
Ozuna, 34, has experienced a power outage this year. However, his expected slugging percentage is .487 versus his actual .392 mark, and I assume he'll be fine. He's a DH-only rental making $16MM, so my guess is that he'd bring in 40-grade type prospects. Iglesias is 35 and making the same money. His velocity and strikeout rate are slipping, and somehow 18.4% of his flyballs have left the yard. I think he'd be a pure salary dump.
So while I don't think the Braves will make the playoffs, I also don't think they're re-stocking the farm system by trading Ozuna and Iglesias.
As for Kevin's question, let's do a mini-assessment of the Braves' core, with the player's 2026 age in parentheses. Money owed in 2025 is not included.
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