MLB Mailbag: Grisham, Elly De La Cruz, Brewers, Bregman
This week's mailbag gets into a qualifying offer for Trent Grisham, the likelihood of the Reds signing Elly De La Cruz long-term, preseason projections consistently whiffing on the Brewers, how a lockout might affect free agency in 2026-27, what it might take to extend Alex Bregman, and much more.
Dmitry asks:
I keep seeing that the Yankees wont re-sign Trent Grisham. What is the downside to a QO? is 22 million for a 3 win CF in his prime on a one year deal really that bad?
Grisham, 29 in November, is on pace for a 2.8 WAR season in about 139 games. He's missed some time on the paternity list and a few games due to a hamstring issue.
Grisham was widely seen as a non-tender candidate in the offseason, but instead accepted a $500K pay cut to land at $5MM on a pre-tender deal. He had an 87 wRC+ from 2022-24 over 1,288 plate appearances. Despite avoiding the IL in 2024, Grisham played in only 76 games for the Yankees, who had an outfield of Alex Verdugo, Aaron Judge, and Juan Soto.
Prior to this year, Grisham was more of a sub-2-WAR backup outfielder or bottom of the order regular who was not considered worthy of a $6MM salary.
The main wart on Grisham's season is that he's only hit like this (126 wRC+) once before, in the pandemic-shortened 2020 season. But Grisham has a career-low strikeout rate with career-best power, plus good Statcast metrics. Though he owes some of his success to a huge April, he's still managed a 113 wRC+ since. The Yankees sat Grisham a fair bit against lefties last year, but not this year, and he's been tolerable against them.
Once one of the faster players in baseball, Grisham lost several steps in 2023 and now sits in the 33rd percentile for sprint speed. That might partially explain why the two-time Gold Glover has a negative Outs Above Average mark for the first time in his career. Defensive runs saved shows a similar story.
When it hasn't been Grisham in center field for the Yankees this year, it's been Cody Bellinger. Bellinger figures to take a $5MM buyout over his final $25MM salary for 2026, meaning both outfielders will be free agents. Assuming the Yankees don't want to give Harrison Bader another try, their main free agent alternative would be Cedric Mullins. The trade market could feature Luis Robert Jr. and little else at center.
Internally, Spencer Jones would be the main option if both Bellinger and Grisham depart. Jones, 25 in May, has torched both Double-A and Triple-A pitching this year, dropping his strikeout rate from 33.7% to 26.0% at the higher level.
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Should Trevor Story Trigger His Opt-Out?
Shortstop Trevor Story can opt out of his deal with the Red Sox after this season. For much of his Boston tenure, that opt-out has been an afterthought. Lately, he has been on fire and made it seem like a legitimate possibility once again.
Rob Bradford of the Baseball Isn't Boring podcast asked Story about his upcoming decision. Story spoke of his love of playing in Boston, which sort of points against him opting out, but he also acknowledged that there's a "business side of it" as well.
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Trade Rumors Front Office Subscriber Chat Transcript
Steve Adams
- Good afternoon! We'll get going at 2pm CT, but feel free to submit questions ahead of time if you prefer! Talk to everyone in a bit.
- Hello! Let's get underway
Dirt
- Michael Harris has gotten on track but Ozzie still isn't doing much with the bat. With Nacho Alvarez getting seasoned, do you think the Braves will pick up the option on Albies, then trade him or just let him walk? What will AA do about the starting rotation?
Steve Adams
- I don't see any scenario where the Braves just buy him out and let him walk to save what would be a net $4MM. Even if they're just done with him, a team would absolutely trade for Albies at a year and $7MM -- especially with a subsequent option for the same amount.Terrible year (well, yearS, plural) or not, Albies is a 28-year-old former All-Star 2B with multiple 30-homer seasons under his belt.Conversely, open up our Contract Tracker -- included with your subscription! -- to check out what kind of position players a year and $7MM can buy you in free agency:
- https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/contracttracker?name=&team=0&position=H...
- You're looking at bounceback shots in the dark for mid-30s veterans like AJ Pollock, Tommy Pham, Carlos Santana, Robinson Chirinos, etc. It's just not a compelling group, and it's only exacerbated in recent years as the general cost of signing free agents has increased.Add in the value the second $7MM option brings if Albies rebounds next year, and he'd still have legitimate trade value, even coming off a down year.
- That's not to say they'd get a top-100 prospect or any kind of real farm-altering prospect, but they could get something with some actual value and not just completely need to dump the money he's owed.
Who gets to The Show 1st?
- Who gets to The Show first? Bubba Chandler or Jonah Tong? When and why?
Steve Adams
-
- Chandler. He's been in Triple-A for a full year now. Tong hasn't thrown a pitch in AAA (he's being promoted there today).
- I'd imagine that after August 15, once there are few enough remaining days on the calendar that prospects who are called up can retain their rookie status heading into 2026, Chandler's developmental issues will magically be sorted out and he'll be in the majors
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2025-26 MLB Free Agent Power Rankings: Nos. 11-15
The latest edition of MLBTR's 2025-26 Free Agent Power Rankings are out. You can check our top 10 with a full breakdown of our reasoning for free, as always. This time around, we're tacking on write-ups of the next five names and a peek ahead to their offseason market and contract expectations for Trade Rumors Front Office subscribers.
As always, it bears emphasizing that our rankings are based on how we perceive these free agents' earning power -- not necessarily a ranking of the "best" or most impactful free agents on the market. For instance, Merrill Kelly and Aroldis Chapman are both having terrific seasons ... in their age-36 and age-37 campaigns, respectively. If they posted these same numbers at age 30, they'd be locks for the top 10. As it stands, age will inherently place a cap on the length of contracts they can secure. A younger pitcher having a lesser season can still out-earn both, simply because deals of four, five and six years are available for 30-year-olds in a way they aren't for free agents in their late 30s.
Next up on our rankings are a trio of arms and two bats -- one of whom could be testing international free agency for the first time.
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Front Office Subscriber Chat Transcript
Anthony Franco
- Hey everyone, hope you've all enjoyed your week!
- Looking forward to another of these, let's get going
Kevin in Tx
- Does Texas rid themselves of Adolis Garcia this winter, his last year of arbitration, I’m guessing a raise to about $12-17 million.
Anthony Franco
- It'd be much closer to 12 than 17. He's not getting an $8M arbitration raise coming off this kind of season. Agree that he's getting non-tendered anyways though
RoxTalks
- Will Brandon Woodruff be extended the QO after he declines his end of the QO?
Anthony Franco
- He's got a $20M mutual option with a $10M buyout. Just clarifying what the questioner means by "declines his end"
- We'll see how he finishes the year but yeah, I think we're trending towards him receiving and declining the QO. Based on our FA deliberations this week, it seems like I'm the low person on staff about Woodruff's earning power, but there's a lot higher upside than there are with some guys who either received the QO last winter (Severino, Martinez) or signed for the same amount (Buehler)
- I feel like Eovaldi's 3/75 is the absolute ceiling and would have him more as a high-AAV two year guy right now, but others at MLBTR (especially Tim Dierkes) think there's a path to a much better deal than that if he shoves through the end of the season and into the playoffs
GWA
- Are the Yanks cooked for 2025.
Anthony Franco
- Eh, I still think they'll hang onto a Wild Card spot. The bullpen's better on paper than it has pitched. It's tough to feel great about them with how badly they've played for the better part of two months, but there's a lot of talent on the roster and they're still in playoff position right now
Alan V
- Who gets your vote for worst owner in Baseball? It could come from Colorado, Anaheim, Pittsburgh, Miami, Oakland Or the Chicago White Sox.
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Where Do The Twins Go From Here?
The Twins embarked on the biggest deadline sell-off. It was obvious that they'd trade rentals Willi Castro, Harrison Bader, Chris Paddack and Danny Coulombe. There was enough smoke to believe they'd move one of their top two controllable relievers, Jhoan Duran or Griffin Jax. Given the injury history with Brock Stewart, he seemed a good bet to go as well.
Their week was nevertheless staggering. Minnesota traded both Duran and Jax. They dumped more than $70MM of Carlos Correa's contract for no return. The player they received, Matt Mikulski, was once a notable draft prospect but is a 26-year-old reliever in High-A who'd signed a minor league deal with Houston two months ago. They even went as far as to trade Louis Varland, a Twin Cities native who would've been their best remaining reliever. Varland is controllable for five additional seasons and won't qualify for arbitration until the 2026-27 offseason. Aside from the few hundred thousand dollars they saved by attaching Ty France in that deal, that didn't even cut costs. Minnesota evidently decided that the volatility associated with any relief pitcher was enough to put Varland on the table as well.
Given how aggressively the Twins ripped down the roster, it was almost surprising they didn't go further in the end. Jon Morosi of MLB Network reported shortly before the 5:00 pm Central deadline that the Red Sox were making another run at Joe Ryan. It doesn't seem they came close to getting a deal done when Boston balked at trading an MLB outfielder. Still, one imagines the Sox and many others will be eager to reopen those talks once the offseason begins.
The Twins will play out the string with a bullpen comprising journeymen and waiver pickups. To the extent there's any intrigue left this season, it's in getting looks at young players like Luke Keaschall, Alan Roden (acquired from Toronto in the Varland deal) and Zebby Matthews. They acquired 24-year-old righty Taj Bradley in a one-for-one swap for Jax and added 23-year-old righty Mick Abel as part of their return for Duran. Both are starting their organizational tenure in Triple-A but could get a look later in the season.
While the next couple months won't be particularly interesting, the Twins are facing a massive offseason. What could be in store?
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MLB Mailbag: Schwarber, Braves, Story, Naylor, Tucker, Rockies
This week's mailbag covers Kyle Schwarber's impending free agency, what the Braves should do in the offseason, whether Trevor Story could opt out, why MLB killed August waiver trades, how Josh Naylor will fare in free agency, the potentially weak 2026-27 free agent class, the chances the Dodgers sign Kyle Tucker, the Rockies' young bats, and more.
Fred asks:
I can't believe that John Middleton will let Kyle Schwarber play anywhere else but Philly next year, especially with the overall drop in the Phillies' non-Schwarber power output this year. Does a 4/125 extension keep him away from free agency?
Schwarber turns 33 in March. He's mashing this year like never before. Schwarber has already reached his first 4 WAR season, should fly past 5 WAR, and won't be far off 6 WAR. His previous career-high was 3.3 last year. The bar is very high for offense when you have no defensive value.
Regarding the term, only two DHs age 33 and up have achieved four years in free agency: Nelson Cruz and Victor Martinez within a month of each other in December 2014. They were actually age 34 and 36, respectively, so I guess that's a (weak) case to actually go to five years on Schwarber.
To Fred's question, yes - four years at $31.25MM per year should definitely keep Schwarber away from free agency. The Phillies have a $185MM CBT payroll for next year at the moment, given Schwarber, J.T. Realmuto, Ranger Suarez, Jordan Romano, and others coming off the books. There would be room to give Schwarber a contract with a $30MM AAV, and it was Dave Dombrowski who did that ill-fated V-Mart deal with the Tigers. But would this type of contract with Schwarber be a good idea?
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Trade Rumors Front Office Subscriber Chat Transcript
Steve Adams
- Good afternoon! I'll get going at 3pm CT, but feel free to start firing questions off ahead of time, if you are so inclined!
- Greetings! Plenty to discuss post-deadline, so let's get after it.
Jon D
- If I understand the post-deadline rules, minor leaguers can still be traded, yes? If so, I think the Red Sox need to get Trey Mancini from the D-Backs. I think this can still be done and he could (hopefully) help fill a hole at 1B that Breslow couldn't address. Thoughts?
Steve Adams
- Ran through post-deadline acquisition rules here over the weekend:
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2025/08/how-to-acquire-players-after-th...Some, not all minor leaguers can be traded. Any player who's on a minor league contract that has not been selected to the majors this season is eligible. He can only be traded for cash, a PTBNL or other minor leaguers who've not had their contracts selected to a major league roster. The PTBNL cannot be someone on a 40-man roster or someone else who's been previously on a big league roster.There are some oddball exceptions. Cavan Biggio was traded last September because he'd been released from his prior major league contract (not had that contract outrighted) and signed a new minor league deal with the Giants, for instance.
- But by and large, you can cross off the idea of trading for the vast majority of players who've appeared on a major league roster or injured list all season.
- Mancini is eligible to be traded, though if the Red Sox felt he was a prominent upgrade to their first base situation, they could've already acquired him from the D-backs for a song. Arizona isn't going to give Mancini much of a look (if any look at all) -- not after acquiring Tyler Locklear to play 1B going forward.
Duffy Scliff
- Will the Royals pick up Salvy’s player option at season’s end? And should they?
Steve Adams
- It's a club option, not a player (or else it'd be Perez's call, not the team's!)Semantics aside, I expect they will. Perez is a franchise icon at this point, and while his seasonlong numbers aren't great, he's hitting .290/.339/.584 over his past 250 plate appearances. That's 48% better than league-average.
It's a $13.5MM club option with a $2MM buyout, so it's really only a net $11.5MM decision for Kansas City. I'd be surprised if they bought him out.
Jim
- If you were the A's, what off-season moves would you make with an eye toward contending in the postseason in 2026?
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Front Office Subscriber Chat Transcript
Anthony Franco
- Hey everyone, hope you enjoyed the week!
- Going to stay around an hour today, it's been a long week. Let's get going
Angels
- What do you think was the most jarring trade of the year or deadline?
Anthony Franco
- Jarring as in "wow, didn't see that coming" was Devers. Has to be Correa for the deadline
- In terms of a move I just don't understand, it's the Red Sox making the Dustin May trade. They must've really soured on James Tibbs in a span of like six weeks
BeLieber
- What did you think of the risk??
Anthony Franco
- In isolation, Stephen is more than I would've wanted to give up (or expected to get, in Cleveland's case) for Bieber
- That said, the Jays' biggest need IMO was a playoff-caliber starting pitcher. Ultimately, there weren't that many of those guys moved. Everyone else balked at the price on Ryan, Cease, Alcantara, Cabrera, Keller, etc. too
- Bieber has that within the range of outcomes in a way that very few starting pitchers who got traded did. So while my initial reaction to it was "man, I think the Guardians beat the Jays in another trade," I've come more around on it as being defensible for Toronto in light of what didn't happen in the ensuing eight hours
M
- Who do you think did the best at the deadline? Who made out the worst?
Arthur Dent
- Which team(s) did the best job of addressing their needs with deadline deals?
Anthony Franco
- I think the Padres did the best job of checking off every box that they needed. Obviously that's easier to do when you trade away more young talent than any other team. Similar logic with Philly to a lesser extent. Needed an elite late-game arm, paid heavily but got him
- On value alone, I think Texas and Seattle came out pretty well. Rangers did give up a decent amount for Kelly but he was one of the better starters available and they had pretty limited budgetary room. Would be a fair criticism that their biggest need was offense and they didn't address that though
- On the other end, this was a pretty big letdown for Detroit. They got a couple back-end starters, neither of whom is as good as Reese Olson (who they lost to injury). They needed to upgrade the back of the bullpen but instead opted for a bulk approach where they're swapping out three or four mediocre relievers for marginal at best upgrades
BeBopCola
- Do you think the brewers should’ve done a little more to acquire a bat at the deadline?
Anthony Franco
- I'm surprised they didn't get a better utility piece, at least, but I get why they didn't want to disrupt the lineup when it's going this well
- Pretty quiet overall but I'm a fan of the late Shelby Miller dart throw for a couple million dollars
M
- Were you surprised at the small return for anyone? Or thought someone had a significant overpay?
Anthony Franco
- Given how definitively Suárez had pulled away as the best rental bat, I thought Arizona would do better than they did. Not necessarily a top 100 caliber prospect but they're putting a lot into Locklear being a plug and play average or better regular at first base
- Mentioned May already. Not even a huge James Tibbs fan really but I don't see a ton of appeal with May so that felt rich. Mets went a little heavy to get Tyler Rogers
- Really liked the Royals' end of the Fermin trade. Ryan Bergert's a potential #3/4 starter who is MLB ready and they got six years of him for a low-end #1 catcher
-
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MLB Mailbag: Kwan, Bieber, Yankees, Giants, Cubs, Phillies, Braves
Our final subscriber mailbag before the trade deadline gets into the Guardians trading Steven Kwan and Shane Bieber, what's next for the Yankees, Giants, and Cubs, Dave Dombrowski's approach toward trading top Phillies prospects, and positives for the Braves.
John asks:
Where does Cleveland go from here? Kwan isn't signing long term. Clase may be lost. Will Santana be dfa for Kayfus?
Robb asks:
Would the Guardians be more receptive to dealing Steven Kwan if the Dodgers take Shane Bieber off their hands? Even so, I doubt anything less than Dalton Rushing would interest the Guardians as a starting point.
In a recent report, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic said Kwan is drawing a ton of interest, and Emmanuel Clase's non-disciplinary leave might increase the chances of a trade.
Kwan, 28 in September, is earning $4.175MM this year and is under team control through 2027. Though he's not a flashy player, Kwan has been worth about 4 WAR per 650 plate appearances in his career and this season is no different.
Trading Kwan would be risky for the Guardians, as the franchise has failed to find or produce an outfielder of this caliber since perhaps Michael Brantley. Nor will Kwan's arbitration salaries be prohibitive, even for the Guardians. The next big hopes are Chase DeLauter, who may be out for the season due to a hamate fracture, and Jaison Chourio, who has yet to succeed at High-A.
Still, trading players with Kwan's service time is the circle of life for the Guardians, so I imagine if someone offers multiple cornerstone top-100 prospect type players (especially position players), they'll take a hard look at it.
Carlos Santana is 39 and he's been terrible since June, so I could see a DFA in the offing. The Guardians may first attempt some of the $4MM he's still owed this year. C.J. Kayfus, 23, has done nothing but rake in the minors, though his Triple-A strikeout rate is high at 28%. It'd make sense to give Kayfus a look this year, unless the team is trying not to start his service time clock.
What will happen with Bieber, one of the more intriguing trade targets of the 2025 deadline?
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